Manufacturing PMI Insights - The official manufacturing PMI for February 2025 is recorded at 50.2%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a return above the growth threshold[1] - The average manufacturing PMI for the first two months of 2025 is 49.7%, lower than the average of 50.2% in the last quarter of 2024, suggesting a weaker manufacturing sentiment compared to seasonal norms[1] - The production index and new orders index for February are 52.5% and 51.1%, respectively, indicating that production is expanding faster than demand[2] Economic Trends and Risks - The new export orders index stands at 48.6%, reflecting a slight recovery but still indicating potential risks in external demand due to uncertainties in trade policies[2] - There is a notable divergence in sentiment among manufacturing enterprises, with large enterprises showing a PMI of 52.5%, while medium and small enterprises are at 49.2% and 46.3%, respectively, highlighting a reliance on large firms for recovery[2] - The manufacturing price indices indicate a potential narrowing of PPI declines, with the output price index at 48.5% and the main raw material purchase price index at 50.8%[2] Overall Economic Outlook - The comprehensive PMI average for the first two months of 2025 is 50.6%, down from 51.3% in the last quarter of 2024, suggesting a slower economic recovery trajectory[6] - The construction PMI for February is 52.7%, showing a strong recovery post-holiday, while the service sector PMI is at 50.0%, indicating a decline[5] - The overall economic sentiment remains cautious, with the need for further policy support for small and medium enterprises highlighted as crucial for sustained recovery[2]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI for February returned above the threshold, indicating a relatively good state of manufacturing prosperity, with the average PMI for January and February overall better than in 2024 [1][3] Manufacturing PMI Analysis - The manufacturing PMI for February is 50.2%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, and 0.1 percentage points lower than the average of the past five years [2][3] - The average PMI for January and February is 49.65%, which is higher than the 49.15% in the same period of 2024, reflecting a better recent manufacturing climate [3] Economic Supply and Demand - Both supply and demand sides of the economy are performing well in the short term, with a potential short-term rebound in PPI readings [4] - The production index for February is 52.5%, up 2.7 percentage points from last month, and the average operating rate for six major industrial sectors is 71.0%, which is 2.0 percentage points higher than the same period in 2024 [4] Sector Performance - Among 15 major manufacturing industries, 7 have PMIs above the threshold, with the equipment manufacturing sector performing relatively well, such as electrical machinery at 57.1% and automotive manufacturing at 53.1% [5] - Conversely, some low-value-added industries are underperforming, such as non-metallic mineral products at 43.4% and petroleum processing at 42.6% [5] Non-Manufacturing PMI Insights - The non-manufacturing PMI for February is 50.4%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, driven mainly by seasonal recovery in the construction industry [6] - The service sector PMI decreased to 50.0%, while the construction PMI increased to 52.7%, indicating a seasonal rebound in construction activities post-Spring Festival [6] Future Economic Outlook - The overall economic performance is benefiting from previous consumption-boosting policies, tariff expectations, and the concentrated issuance of special bonds in the fourth quarter [7] - Future attention should be paid to the details of macro policies from the Two Sessions, the effects of consumption promotion on large items, and the impact of tariffs on exports [7]

广发证券 资深宏观分析师 王丹 bjwangdan@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第六， 2月服务业PMI环比下降0.3个点至50。航空、邮政、信息服务、生态环保景气领先；景气偏低的行业 集中在两类，一类是生产性服务业（租赁商务、道路运输、水上运输、批发），一类是与居民线下消费（住 宿、餐饮），统计局在解读中提到与"节后假日效应消退"等因素有关 [2] 。从过去几个月来看，2024年12 月服务业PMI环比大幅上行，其中包含资本市场相关行业的高位、生产性服务业的活跃；1月受春节前居民生 活半径扩张影响，与居民出行相关的交通运输服务业、住宿餐饮服务业景气环比明显改善。2月节假日效应消 退，叠加部分行业工作日较短（元宵节位于2月12日），因此出现较集中的环比下行。 第一， 随着节后复工推进，2025年2月制造业PMI环比上行1.1个点至50.2。 在经历了1月的季节性回落 后，经济景气重回2024年9月以来的修复趋势，绝对景气度略高于2024年12月的50.1。 中观景气面同步改 善，15个细分制造业行业中共7个位于景气扩张，好于2025年1月的5个，持平于2024年12月。 第二， 从行业景气度 ...