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当“网红股”跌落神坛,什么才是穿越周期的投资真谛?丨CV荐书
投中网· 2026-01-18 07:04
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of identifying companies with a strong economic moat that can withstand economic cycles and competition, providing reliable long-term returns for investors [3][4]. Group 1: Economic Moat Concept - The concept of an economic moat is crucial for understanding which companies can deliver sustainable competitive advantages and superior capital returns over time [3][4]. - Morningstar has developed a rigorous and globally applicable analysis and rating system based on the economic moat concept, demonstrating its effectiveness through decades of performance [5][8]. Group 2: Morningstar's Investment Philosophy - Morningstar's investment philosophy is built on three core principles: decoding economic moats, identifying great companies, and determining the best time to invest in them [10][14]. - The analysis framework includes five identifiable sources of economic moats: intangible assets, cost advantages, switching costs, network effects, and efficient scale [11][12][13]. Group 3: Investment Timing and Valuation - Identifying great companies is only part of the investment success; buying them at fair or undervalued prices is essential for generating excess returns [14]. - Morningstar employs a discounted cash flow model to estimate intrinsic value, requiring deep analysis of future cash flows and competitive advantage periods [15]. Group 4: Safety Margin and Uncertainty - Acknowledging the inherent limitations of human predictions is vital for rational investors, leading to the principle of safety margin to protect against unforeseen risks [18]. - Morningstar's unique uncertainty rating system helps assess the difficulty and risk of future cash flow predictions, guiding the required safety margin for investments [18]. Group 5: Consumer Sector Analysis - The consumer sector serves as an excellent platform for applying the economic moat theory, with strong brands and difficult-to-replicate scale advantages being key factors [21]. - Specific industries, such as beverages and packaged goods, demonstrate how brand loyalty and distribution networks create robust economic moats [26][23]. Group 6: Case Studies and Practical Insights - The book "Investing with Moats" provides a systematic approach to identifying valuable companies, offering practical insights and case studies across various consumer sub-industries [30][31]. - It emphasizes the importance of focusing on intrinsic value rather than market price fluctuations, fostering a mindset that resists market panic and greed [31].
郭广昌最新发声!从需求出发,坚持做好产品
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-17 11:05
Group 1 - The core message emphasizes that as long as the product quality is high, there will always be a market for it [5][6] - The company highlighted the impressive growth of its invested enterprise, Jinduo, which has gained popularity due to its refreshing taste and thoughtful design [6] - The company also showcased the success of San Yuan's fresh milk, which is produced from 100% self-owned dairy sources on the same day, emphasizing the importance of freshness [6] Group 2 - The annual meeting took place at the Atlantis Hotel, where it was noted that the occupancy rate and pricing were more stable compared to the previous year [3][6] - The newly opened Super Mediterranean project nearby is experiencing strong sales, indicating a positive trend in consumer behavior [3] - The company believes that regardless of market conditions, consumers are always willing to pay for high-quality products, reinforcing its commitment to product excellence [3][6]
柬埔寨又一华裔电诈头目落网,曾拥有“勋爵”头衔,旗下园区涉恐怖虐待
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-17 06:24
Core Viewpoint - Cambodian authorities have arrested a key figure in telecom fraud, Li Kuong, highlighting ongoing efforts to combat organized crime in the country [1][2][3] Group 1: Arrest and Charges - Li Kuong, a 50-year-old Cambodian of Chinese descent, has been arrested and is facing charges related to organized network fraud, human trafficking, and money laundering [1][2] - The Cambodian court has determined that Li Kuong will be held in custody at the Phnom Penh prison pending further judicial proceedings [1] Group 2: Criminal Activities - Li Kuong is accused of using "investment" and "project management" as a facade for opaque financial operations, illegally seizing others' property, and engaging in systematic money laundering [2] - His controlled venues, including a large integrated park and casinos, have been implicated in illegal detention and forced participation in online fraud activities [2] Group 3: Government Response - Under pressure from China and the international community, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet has prioritized the fight against telecom fraud as a critical government initiative [2][3] - The Prime Minister emphasized that telecom fraud poses a serious threat to national security and public order, calling for a united effort to eradicate this social issue [3]
贾国龙之问,像极了那些仍然活在过去的企业家
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-01-16 19:44
01 这两天,西贝关闭102家门店的消息,以创始人贾国龙在朋友圈"自白"的形式再一次上了热搜。 从2025年9月预制菜舆论风波开始,在经历了贾国龙口中"1万7千名员工拼了125天"的挣扎后,西贝最终做出了关闭102家门店的决定。 贾国龙在朋友圈的长文中,把关店原因归咎于"铺天盖地的污蔑"和"被网红恶意混淆概念",反复强调自己是一个"不懂公关"、"踏踏实实做了38年实业的 人"。 贾国龙还发出灵魂之问,西贝连续十一年中式烹饪正餐营收第一名,难道是靠公关才走到今天吗?我为什么要懂公关呢? 或许,站在他的立场上,真的想不明白,为什么自己辛苦经营这么久,成绩也很不错,怎么会因为一个网红挑刺就被万夫所指了?难道不会公关,所以自 己过去的成绩就被这样否定了? 02 看到贾国龙之问,我瞬间想起了另一个人,谁呢? 华住集团的创始人季琦。 在他的《创始人手记》中记录了这么一件事。 2014年,在IDG资本的年会上,季琦上台演讲,信誓旦旦的说要把已经上市的华住集团,做成下一个百亿企业。 大家十分感动,然后都在等着下一个上台的嘉宾,因为下一个发言的人正是小米的雷军。 此时的小米还没上市,估值已经超过百亿美元。(2014年年底,小米 ...
税暖冬日文旅,赋能消费盛景
Qi Lu Wan Bao· 2026-01-16 15:32
该局组建6支专家顾问团队,实地走访那香海景区等热门景点周边餐饮、住宿、文旅等重点区域经营主 体,开展"上门问需"服务,重点解读小规模纳税人增值税减免、"六税两费"减免等政策,并辅导财务人 员办理申报减免事宜。 "税务部门主动上门讲解政策,还帮我们核算可享受的优惠额度,2025年减免'六税两费'65000元,让我 们有更多资金提升服务品质。"山东那香海人假日酒店有限公司财务总监孙艳丽说。 齐鲁晚报.齐鲁壹点客户端李孟霏通讯员李亚楠 冬日的威海荣成,是一幅融碧海、白雪、天鹅于一体的诗意画卷,澄澈的海面上,成群的天鹅翩跹起 舞,吸引着全国各地的游客慕名而来,带火了烟墩角、天鹅湖、那香海等一众网红打卡地。又一个冬日 旅游热潮即将到来,国家税务总局荣成市税务局精准聚焦行业需求,以政策赋能、用服务添力,用税务 温度助燃文旅市场。 精准滴灌,税惠红利直达 针对荣成市文旅产业覆盖景区、民宿、餐饮等行业,且规模不一等特点,荣成市税务局依托税收大数 据,建立"文旅企业涉税需求台账",精准筛选符合条件的经营主体,实现税费优惠政策"点对点"推送。 此外,该局针对民宿行业新办纳税人较多的情况,专门举办"开业第一课"专场培训,着重讲解税 ...
星巴克,让出行“享住随心”
Xin Jing Bao· 2026-01-16 14:33
Core Insights - The collaboration between Atour Group and Starbucks China aims to enhance user experience by integrating their services into a seamless travel journey, focusing on comfort and convenience [1][2][3] Group 1: Partnership Overview - Atour and Starbucks launched a joint membership program that connects their services, allowing users to enjoy benefits across both brands [3][6] - The program includes features such as double star accumulation for Atour members and exclusive benefits for high-tier Starbucks members, enhancing user engagement [3][6] Group 2: User Experience Enhancement - The partnership addresses the needs of frequent travelers by providing a consistent experience from departure to arrival, ensuring that users can maintain their daily routines even in unfamiliar cities [5][7] - The collaboration shifts the focus from isolated promotions to a holistic experience, positioning both brands as companions in the user's lifestyle [5][7] Group 3: Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - The trend of cross-scenario fluidity among urban consumers necessitates a shift in membership programs from simple discounts to seamless experiences that fit into users' real-life paths [6][7] - Younger consumers are increasingly prioritizing convenience and smoothness in their experiences over mere cost savings, indicating a need for brands to adapt their offerings [6][7] Group 4: Atour's Strategic Vision - Atour aims to redefine the hotel experience as a lifestyle brand, focusing on the concept of "body and mind settling" to enhance the overall quality of life for users [8][12] - The company has set ambitious goals, such as achieving "2000 good stores" in three years, indicating a commitment to expanding its brand presence and enhancing user experience [8][12] Group 5: Future Directions - Atour plans to extend its focus on lifestyle experience upgrades, ensuring that the concept of settling extends beyond travel to everyday life [12] - The collaboration with Starbucks is part of a broader strategy to create a comprehensive lifestyle network that integrates various aspects of urban living [9][11]
社服行业2026年投资策略:消费复苏分化,关注结构性机会
EBSCN· 2026-01-16 12:05
Core Insights - The report highlights a differentiated recovery in consumer spending, emphasizing structural opportunities within the service sector, particularly in dining, education, and travel industries [3][5]. Group 1: Sector Review - The consumer confidence index in China has shown a slight recovery, but consumer willingness remains cautious, with a notable increase in savings and a decline in credit consumption [9][10]. - Service consumption is growing significantly faster than goods consumption, with a widening gap in growth rates, indicating a shift towards experience and service-oriented spending [21][25]. - Lower-tier cities are outperforming higher-tier cities in terms of consumption growth, driven by rising disposable incomes and stable property values [28][35]. Group 2: Dining Sector - The dining sector is experiencing a weak recovery, with a focus on cost-effectiveness and freshness. Recommendations include high-value brands like Xiaocaiyuan and Guming, as well as industrialized tea brands like Mixue [5][73]. - The average dining price has been under pressure, with a decline from 85 yuan in October 2023 to 73 yuan in November 2025, reflecting a shift towards more affordable dining options [72][76]. - The market share is increasingly concentrated among leading dining enterprises, with the revenue share of large-scale dining businesses rising from 20.2% in 2019 to 28.6% in 2025 [72][73]. Group 3: Education Sector - The education sector is witnessing strong demand, with improved competitive dynamics and reduced uncertainty due to clearer policies. Key players include TAL Education and Xueda Education, which leverage AI capabilities [5]. Group 4: Travel and Hospitality Sector - The domestic leisure travel market is growing, with inbound tourism contributing to incremental growth. Recommendations include focusing on scenic areas with strong operational capabilities like Emei Mountain and Changbai Mountain [5]. - The hotel sector is seeing a gradual recovery, with mid-to-high-end hotels performing better than budget hotels. The average daily rate (ADR) for high-end hotels has returned to pre-pandemic levels [60][63].
晚间公告|1月16日这些公告有看头
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2026-01-16 10:50
Group 1 - Su Dawei Ge's wholly-owned subsidiary plans to invest in a fund focusing on semiconductor, new energy, AI, and aerospace sectors, contributing 20 million yuan for a 10.2302% stake [2] - Shimao Energy terminates plans for a change in control after failing to reach consensus on key terms, with stock resuming trading on January 19 [3] - Huatian Hotel's controlling shareholder is planning a merger and restructuring, potentially changing the actual controller to the Hunan Provincial State-owned Cultural Assets Supervision and Administration Commission [4] Group 2 - Jinpu Titanium's subsidiary Xuzhou Titanium will cease production due to intensified market competition, which is expected to significantly impact revenue in 2026 [5] - Dingxin Communications' deputy general manager is under investigation by the CSRC for suspected short-term trading of company stock, but it will not affect the company's operations [6] - Xinhang New Materials plans to acquire 51% of Hairete for 12.8826 million yuan to explore new growth points [7] Group 3 - Hualan Co.'s controlling shareholder raises the upper limit of its share buyback plan from 58.08 yuan to 86.66 yuan per share [8] - Wanhua Chemical's MDI Phase II facility has resumed normal production after maintenance [9] - Junsheng Electronics introduces a strategic investor, with a 1 billion yuan investment aimed at reducing overall debt [10] Group 4 - Jiangbolong announces five shareholders plan to transfer 3% of the company's shares through a pricing inquiry [11] - Haitai Technology expects a net profit increase of 226.86% to 323.97% in 2025, driven by high industry demand and increased orders [13] - Northern Rare Earth anticipates a net profit increase of 116.67% to 134.6% in 2025 due to successful market expansion [14] Group 5 - Lanke Technology forecasts a net profit increase of 52.29% to 66.46% in 2025, benefiting from the AI industry trend [15] - Keda expects a net profit increase of 52.21% to 67.43% in 2025, driven by growth in data center and new energy sectors [16] - Cambridge Technology predicts a net profit increase of 51% to 67% in 2025, supported by strong demand in core business areas [17] Group 6 - China Electric Research anticipates a net profit of 533 million yuan in 2025, a 14.04% increase year-on-year [18] - China Automotive Research expects a net profit of 1.06 billion yuan in 2025, a 17.85% increase year-on-year [19] - Zhongcheng Co. forecasts a net profit of 276 million to 414 million yuan in 2025, recovering from a previous loss [20] Group 7 - Junda Co. expects a net loss of 1.2 billion to 1.5 billion yuan in 2025, worsening from a previous loss of 591 million yuan [21] - Guangdian Network anticipates a net loss of 1.29 billion to 1.55 billion yuan in 2025, attributed to declining traditional business revenue [22] - Jiugang Hongxing predicts a net loss of approximately 1.879 billion yuan in 2025, an improvement from a previous loss of 2.617 billion yuan [23] Group 8 - Jinbo Co. expects a net loss of around 1.4 billion yuan in 2025, worsening from a previous loss of 815 million yuan [24] - Dongjiang Environmental anticipates a net loss of 1.05 billion to 1.35 billion yuan in 2025, due to ongoing industry adjustments [25] - Daqing Energy forecasts a net loss of 1 billion to 1.3 billion yuan in 2025, despite improvements in production costs [26] Group 9 - Dongzhu Ecology expects a net loss of 935 million to 1.135 billion yuan in 2025, impacted by macroeconomic factors [27] - Weiyuan Co. anticipates a net loss of 950 million to 1.05 billion yuan in 2025, turning from profit to loss [28] - Huanghe Xuanfeng predicts a net loss of 850 million yuan in 2025, an improvement from a previous loss of 983 million yuan [29] Group 10 - Fushun Special Steel expects a net loss of 770 million to 870 million yuan in 2025, turning from profit to loss [30] - China First Heavy Industries anticipates a net loss of 310 million to 460 million yuan in 2025, significantly reducing losses compared to the previous year [31] - Jishi Media forecasts a net loss of 364 million to 455 million yuan in 2025, with overall revenue expected to remain stable [33] Group 11 - Guangxi Energy expects a net loss of 170 million to 220 million yuan in 2025, turning from profit to loss [34] - Baike Bio anticipates a net loss of 220 million to 280 million yuan in 2025, turning from profit to loss due to declining vaccine sales [35] - Zhongtai Auto expects to remain in a loss position for 2025, with a projected positive net asset value by year-end [36] Group 12 - Nasda anticipates a loss for 2025 due to significant asset sales and industry policy adjustments [37] - Rongsheng Development expects to report a loss for 2025, with the amount not exceeding the previous year's audited net assets [38] Group 13 - China National Materials signs a contract worth 299 million Canadian dollars for engineering services in Canada [40] - Dayu Water-saving's subsidiary wins a project worth 133 million yuan for water source guarantee engineering [41] - Hailu Heavy Industry reports new orders totaling 1.941 billion yuan for 2025 [42]
华天酒店:湖南旅游集团筹划合并重组事宜,实控人拟变更为湖南省国有文化资产监督管理委员会
3 6 Ke· 2026-01-16 10:49
36氪获悉,华天酒店公告,公司于2026年1月16日收到控股股东湖南旅游发展投资集团有限公司通知, 获悉湖南旅游集团正在筹划合并重组事宜,重组方案尚未确定。截至目前,上述事项不涉及公司重大资 产重组事项,不会对公司治理及生产经营情况产生重大影响,可能涉及公司控股股东变更,公司实际控 制人将由湖南省人民政府国有资产监督管理委员会变更为湖南省国有文化资产监督管理委员会。公司将 持续关注该事项的进展情况,并按照相关法律法规的规定及时履行信息披露义务。 ...
华天酒店(000428.SZ):控股股东筹划合并重组暨实际控制人拟发生变更
Ge Long Hui A P P· 2026-01-16 10:28
格隆汇1月16日丨华天酒店(000428.SZ)公布,收到控股股东湖南旅游发展投资集团有限公司(简称"湖 南旅游集团")通知,获悉湖南旅游集团正在筹划合并重组事宜,重组方案尚未确定。截至目前,上述 事项不涉及公司重大资产重组事项,不会对公司治理及生产经营情况产生重大影响,可能涉及公司控股 股东变更,公司实际控制人将由湖南省人民政府国有资产监督管理委员会变更为湖南省国有文化资产监 督管理委员会。 ...