证券研究报告 | 2025年05月21日 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2025-05-20 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 3380.47 | 10249.17 | 3898.17 | 11510.62 | 2850.94 | 997.67 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | 0.38 | 0.76 | 0.54 | 1.04 | 1.03 | 0.24 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 4502.90 | 7193.90 | 2016.36 | 2657.65 | 3242.13 | 175.15 | 【重点推荐】 宏观与策略 固定收益专题研究:海外债市系列之三-美国国债市场图谱 【常规内容】 宏观与策略 宏观专题:AI、关税与黄金的启示——2025 年中期宏观展望 行业与公司 电子行业周报：财报季彰显景气，关税博弈趋于缓和，积极布局"估值 扩张" 腾讯音乐(TME.N) 海外公司财报点评:ARPPU 值提升或将成为订阅 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance in Q1 2025, with significant year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter growth in revenue and net profit, driven by its gaming and educational segments [1][4]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 28.829 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 7.4% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 7.8% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 10.301 billion yuan, showing a year-over-year growth of 34.9% and a quarter-over-quarter growth of 17.5% [1] - The adjusted net profit was 11.237 billion yuan, with a year-over-year increase of 32% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 16.1% [1] - Gross margin improved to 64.1%, up 0.7 percentage points year-over-year and 3.3 percentage points quarter-over-quarter [1] Gaming Business - The gaming and value-added services segment generated revenue of 28.83 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 68.8% [2] - New game releases contributed significantly to revenue growth, with titles like "Marvel Duel" and "Yanyun Sixteen Sounds" achieving high player engagement [2] - Long-standing games like "Identity V" and "Blood Strike" also saw substantial revenue increases, with "Identity V" experiencing a 123% rise in global revenue [2] Educational Segment (Youdao) - Youdao reported revenue of 1.298 billion yuan, a decline of 6.7% year-over-year and 3.1% quarter-over-quarter [4] - Operating profit increased by 247.7% to 104 million yuan, marking a historical high for Q1 [4] - The AI-driven strategy led to significant improvements in profitability, with learning services revenue reaching 602 million yuan, and AI subscription services growing over 40% year-over-year [4] Music and Other Segments - NetEase Cloud Music generated revenue of 1.858 billion yuan, down 8.4% year-over-year, but showed effective cost control with a gross margin of 36.7% [5] - The innovation and other business segment reported revenue of 1.624 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.6% year-over-year [6] - The company is focusing on enhancing product offerings and leveraging AI technology across various segments to improve user experience and operational efficiency [6] Future Outlook - The company plans to continue its focus on innovation and long-term operations in Q2 2025, with multiple game releases and expansions in the educational sector [3][4] - The company expects to maintain strong revenue growth across its diversified product matrix, with a target price of 203 HKD and a "buy" rating [7]

Core Viewpoint - The popularity of folk music, exemplified by artists like Ma Di, is declining as audiences shift towards short video music trends, leading to a diminished interest in traditional folk songs like "Nan Shan Nan" [1][5][11]. Group 1: Evolution of Folk Music - Folk music experienced a resurgence around 2020, particularly through shows like "The Summer of Bands," but has since returned to obscurity [6]. - The first generation of folk musicians, such as Lao Lang and Xiao Ke, created a collective memory through their campus folk songs, which resonated with themes of youth and freedom [8]. - The rise of the internet has transformed how folk music is consumed, with many contemporary folk songs gaining popularity through covers and social media [10]. Group 2: Current Trends and Challenges - Contemporary folk artists are increasingly distancing themselves from the genre, seeking creative freedom and expressing dissatisfaction with repetitive themes in folk music [11][13]. - The audience for folk music has shifted, with many former listeners now favoring short, catchy songs that dominate social media platforms [13][15]. - Compared to rock music, which has evolved and diversified, folk music struggles to maintain relevance in a rapidly changing musical landscape [13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the internet media industry, indicating an expectation for the industry to outperform the overall market [3][11]. Core Insights - Tencent and NetEase have exceeded expectations in Q1 2025, with AI applications enhancing operational efficiency in gaming and advertising. Despite concerns over a decrease in capital expenditure, the commitment to AI-driven growth remains strong [3]. - The gaming sector continues to thrive with established titles like Tencent's "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite" driving revenue growth, while NetEase's new mobile game "Yanyun" contributes to a 12.1% year-on-year increase in net income from gaming and related services [3]. - The report highlights the strong gross margin of NetEase Cloud Music at 36.7% in Q1 2025, reflecting a robust growth trajectory in paid subscriptions and user engagement among younger demographics [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of shareholder returns, with differentiated competition in gaming products supporting stock buybacks and dividends [3]. - The report identifies potential short-term profit margin pressures from competition in instant retail affecting e-commerce and local lifestyle platforms [3]. Summary by Sections Gaming Sector - Tencent's Q1 2025 capital expenditure is 15% of revenue, while Alibaba's AI initiatives are accelerating cloud revenue. The gaming sector is expected to benefit from AI innovations, enhancing user engagement and retention [3]. - A-share gaming companies are projected to see growth driven by new product cycles and AI innovations, with current valuations around 15x [3]. Key Recommendations - The report recommends investments in AI cloud computing and cost-effective AI applications, highlighting companies such as Tencent, Alibaba, and Kingsoft Cloud [3]. - It also suggests focusing on consumer platforms targeting younger audiences, including Pop Mart and Meitu, as well as companies in the film industry like Alibaba Pictures [3]. - The report notes improved competitive dynamics for companies like Focus Media and suggests high dividend-paying publishing companies as attractive investments [3]. Valuation Table - The report includes a valuation table for key companies, indicating projected revenues and net profits for 2025 and 2026, with Tencent's market cap at 43,014 million RMB and a PE ratio of 17 for 2025 [5].

南都讯 记者 丁慧峰 环球音乐大中华区（Universal Music Greater China）在粤港澳大湾区的全新公司 ——环球音乐粤港澳大湾区公司，5月16日在深圳福田中洲湾启幕，正式开启一段音乐与城市的崭新旅 程。香港摇滚乐队Supper Moment也出席典礼并在活动现场宣布已经正式签约环球音乐。未来，环球音 乐将与乐队共同携手，将他们的音乐推广到更远的地方。 环球音乐一众管理层包括环球音乐集团市场发展执行副总裁亚当・格兰奈特（Adam Granite）、环球音 乐集团大中华区主席暨首席执行官徐毅（Timothy Xu）、环球音乐集团大中华区首席财务官王恺 （Aaron Wang）、环球音乐集团大中华区首席运营官许雯静（Vivian Xu）、环球音乐香港董事总经理 暨环球音乐大中华区高级副总裁陈志光（Gary Chan），以及环球音乐艺术家与合作伙伴齐聚一堂，共 庆环球音乐粤港澳大湾区公司开业。 亚当・格兰奈特（Adam Granite）感谢出现在祝福视频中的每一位环球音乐合作艺术家们，同时也感谢 所有合作伙伴及协助他们于大湾区成立公司的政府部门，期待环球音乐能在中国取得更多的突破，同时 助力华语 ...

今年 "五一"档电影票房惨极了。 总票房 7.47亿元，同比暴跌51.1%，观影人次仅1889.5万，同比下降50.03%（猫眼研究院）。这一结果让业 内人士感到焦虑，也说明了一件事实：传统电影院正在失去吸引力。 过去，电影院是约会、聚会、打发时间的 "社交刚需"，如今却成了观众眼中的"可选项"。数据显示，五一档 观众人均观影1.14次，92%的人只看一部电影，结伴观影比例跌至66%（去年为69%）。 当传统影院陷入困境时，另一种线下娱乐却在逆势增长。上海影视乐园的沉浸式戏剧《新世界 ·破笼之宴》 连演5天场场爆满，观众拖着行李箱从外地赶来，只为成为剧情的一部分。 几天前，混沌君围观了 Zebra Labs创始人李岱老师在混沌录课的整个过程，听完之后我的脑洞大开：她们正 在电影院做韩国男团TXT的VR演唱会，可以通过头显设备，让数千人同时在影院"近距离追星"，甚至无需艺 人到场，这个票在北京的影院就有售。 无独有偶：上海某酒店将客房打造成 "电影主题空间"，结合剧本杀、VR互动，五一入住率飙升25%；部分 影院推出"观影+餐饮+周边"套餐，用差异化服务留住观众。 事实证明，观众并非排斥线下体验，而是越来越排斥 ...

Core Insights - The release of the second trailer for "GTA6" resulted in 475 million views within 24 hours, significantly surpassing previous video game trailers [1][2] - The accompanying song "Hot Together" by the Pointer Sisters saw a staggering increase in Spotify plays by 182,000% following the trailer's release [1][4] - The music in video games is evolving from a background element to a central component of cultural and narrative experiences [3][9] Music Impact on Gaming - The "GTA" series has a history of reviving older songs, with the first trailer for "GTA6" causing a 36,979% increase in streams for Tom Petty's "Love Is a Long Road" [3] - The choice of music in trailers is crucial, as seen with "Hot Together," which, despite being a lesser-known track, resonated with the game's themes [4][6] - The rise in popularity of these songs can lead to increased opportunities for artists, as evidenced by the Pointer Sisters' recent surge in global search interest [7] Evolution of Music in Gaming - The "GTA" series has progressively integrated music into the gaming experience, with the first game featuring seven radio stations and the latest installment boasting over 400 tracks across 21 stations [9][10] - Rockstar Games has created immersive experiences by incorporating real-world DJ culture and live events into the game [10][14] - The collaboration with artists like Dr. Dre highlights the potential for deeper integration of music and gameplay, enhancing player engagement [12][14] Market Dynamics - The global gaming market reached $184 billion in 2023, significantly outpacing the recorded music market at $28.6 billion, indicating a shift in cultural consumption [15][16] - The potential for music-related markets within gaming is expected to triple by 2026, showcasing the growing importance of this intersection [15] Challenges and Opportunities - Despite the growth, there are challenges in the collaboration between music and gaming industries, including communication barriers and complex licensing processes [22][23] - The need for fair compensation for artists remains a critical issue, as many feel undervalued in the current licensing models [23] - Industry associations are working to bridge gaps and facilitate better partnerships between music and gaming sectors [24] Future Perspectives - The boundaries between music and gaming are becoming increasingly blurred, with potential for new creative expressions in virtual environments [26][27] - The focus is shifting towards how music can be perceived and valued within gaming, rather than merely how it is integrated [27]

Group 1 - The National Health Commission announced the revocation of medical licenses for individuals involved in a public opinion incident [1] - Liu Xiaoqing is under investigation for alleged tax evasion related to a loan transaction [4][5] - Wahaha Group has terminated its cooperation with Jinmailang due to quality control issues [6] Group 2 - Agricultural Bank of China is cooperating with authorities following the unfortunate death of a customer during a withdrawal attempt [6] - JD.com reported a significant increase in daily orders for its food delivery service, surpassing 20 million [6] - Alibaba announced a total dividend distribution of approximately $4.6 billion to shareholders [6] Group 3 - Neta Auto's founder has had 20 million RMB worth of shares frozen amid bankruptcy proceedings for the company [7] - The Ministry of Commerce emphasized the need for compliance in the sale of port transactions by CK Hutchison [7] - Eason Chan has been diagnosed with COVID-19, coinciding with a rising trend of cases across the country [8] Group 4 - Container shipping bookings from China to the U.S. surged nearly 300% following mutual tariff reductions [8] - NetEase reported a 7.4% year-on-year revenue increase in Q1 2025, with significant R&D investment [22] - Alibaba's revenue for the fiscal year 2025 reached 996.347 billion RMB, marking a 6% increase [21] Group 5 - GAC Trumpchi has undergone a leadership change with Feng Xingya stepping down as chairman [9] - Guangdong's new marriage and childbirth incentive program offers financial rewards to residents [10] - China has expanded its visa-free policy to include five additional countries starting June 1, 2025 [10] Group 6 - Hyundai has begun construction on its first manufacturing plant in Saudi Arabia, with an annual capacity of 50,000 vehicles [16] - Uber launched a new carpooling service in the U.S. aimed at daily commuters [16] - The global short video app in-app purchase revenue reached nearly $700 million in Q1 2025, a significant increase from the previous year [16] Group 7 - OpenAI has released the GPT-4.1 model for ChatGPT users, focusing on coding tasks [17] - "Zhongke Bosheng" completed nearly 100 million RMB in Series A financing to enhance production capabilities [18] - "Boson Quantum" secured several tens of millions in A+ round financing to advance quantum computing technology [18]

Core Insights - Net revenue from gaming and related value-added services for NetEase reached RMB 24 billion (USD 3.3 billion), representing a year-on-year growth of 12.1% compared to the same period in 2024 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Youdao's net revenue was RMB 1.3 billion (USD 178.9 million), showing a decline of 6.7% year-on-year compared to 2024 [1] - NetEase Cloud Music reported net revenue of RMB 1.9 billion (USD 256.1 million), which is a decrease of 8.4% year-on-year compared to 2024 [1] - Revenue from innovative businesses and others amounted to RMB 1.6 billion (USD 223.8 million), reflecting a decline of 17.6% year-on-year compared to 2024 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Sony Group expects a 0.3% year-on-year increase in consolidated operating profit (excluding financial services) for the fiscal year 2025, reaching 1.28 trillion yen, marking a record high for three consecutive fiscal years [1] Financial Performance - The company's sales are projected to decline by 3% year-on-year to 11.7 trillion yen, while net profit is expected to drop by 13% to 930 billion yen due to the dissolution of subsidiaries and reduced tax burdens [1] - The gaming, music, and film sectors are anticipated to account for 67% of sales and 70% of operating profit in the fiscal year 2024 [1] Gaming Business Outlook - The gaming segment's operating profit is expected to grow by 16% to 480 billion yen in the fiscal year 2025, driven by popular game sequels and subscription services [3] - The impact of U.S. tariffs, particularly on movies produced outside the U.S., could reduce operating profit by 100 billion yen, although this has not been included in the profit forecast [3] Market Position and Stock Performance - Sony's market capitalization is approaching that of Disney, with a closing stock price increase of 4% to 3,788 yen on May 14, resulting in a market value of 23.2954 trillion yen, approximately 6 trillion yen less than Disney's market value [3] - Analysts express confidence in Sony's profit growth trend even after excluding financial services, providing reassurance to the market [3] Content Strategy and Synergies - Sony's CEO highlighted the importance of expanding intellectual property across various entertainment sectors, with over ten projects in development to adapt games into films and TV shows [4] - The acquisition of Crunchyroll and Aniplex is expected to enhance content offerings, with plans to adapt the popular game "Ghost of Tsushima" into an animated series set for release in 2027 [5] Industry Growth and Competition - Japan's content industry exports reached 5.8 trillion yen in 2023, surpassing semiconductors and steel, with a government target of 20 trillion yen by 2033 [5] - Competition for strong content through mergers and acquisitions is intensifying, with Sony facing challenges in maintaining financial discipline while competing with larger overseas firms [5]