Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in Shanghai's real estate market, highlighting that the transaction volume has exceeded 20,000 units for two consecutive months, which is a significant achievement given the current market conditions [5][6]. Group 1: Market Trends - Shanghai's second-hand housing market has shown strong performance, with an average monthly transaction volume of 20,000 units throughout the year, which is remarkable during a perceived downturn [5]. - The current main buyers in the market are not the typical demographics, but rather long-term workers in Shanghai who are now considering purchasing homes due to favorable pricing [9][10]. Group 2: Buyer Demographics - The purchasing power of buyers has shifted significantly, with 50% of current demand now coming from properties priced below 2 million, compared to 3 million three years ago, indicating a substantial change in buyer profiles [7][8]. - Over 70% of buyers are now looking for properties priced below 3 million, reflecting a dramatic increase in the low-price segment of the market [8]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The increase in transactions is attributed to the affordability of older, smaller properties in central areas, which are appealing to new buyers who are sensitive to price [10][11]. - The current market activity is driven by a new class of buyers who are entering the market, which could potentially lead to a broader recovery in the real estate sector [12][14]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The article expresses optimism for the upcoming year, suggesting that if the market maintains a transaction volume of 20,000 units in January, a positive trend is expected to continue into the spring [15].

有人预测：2026年开始，手里有两套房的家庭，可能面临4个大麻烦 前几年，很多人心里都有一条"财富公式"：只要手里有两套房，一套自己住，一套租出去或者将来卖 掉，基本就躺赢了。 那时候亲戚朋友一聊天，话题离不开： "你家几套了？""在哪个区又买了一套？" "房子比啥都靠谱，存钱不如买房。" 但这两年，风向悄悄变了。越来越多家庭发现，手里的房子，从"财富仓库"变成了"烫手山芋"： 价格不涨反跌，挂出去没人看，物业费和房贷照样得交，租不出去就算了，还得担心未来会不会收什么 房产税。 有分析就预测：如果照着现在的趋势走下去，到2026年开始，手里有两套房的家庭，会明显感受到4个 大麻烦。如果你家也是"两套房家庭"，这几个问题一定要提前想清楚，不然可能真会被打个措手不及。 一、房子不一定还能"躺着增值"，有些甚至还在缩水 过去二十多年，楼市走了一个超级大牛市。很多人自然而然觉得：房价就是"永远涨"。但从最近两年的 数据来看，这个错觉已经被打破得很彻底了： 2025年，全国70个大中城市二手房价格指数，已经是连续多月全部下跌 ； 对两套房家庭来说，最尴尬的是什么？ 往往： 第一套是自住的，位置、配套还凑合； 第二套多半 ...

Group 1 - The "2025 Shanghai-Xiang City Winter Consumption Carnival" was launched to enhance cooperation in housing, tourism, culture, and commerce between Shanghai and Xiangcheng [1] - The event focuses on key sectors such as automotive, commercial integration, home furnishings, cultural tourism, and dining, aiming to create new consumption experiences for citizens [1] - The "Xiangcheng Urban Renewal Key Area Planning" was unveiled, showcasing the blend of classical charm and modern vitality in Xiangcheng [1] Group 2 - Xiangcheng's winter cultural tourism resources were promoted, highlighting its rich cultural tourism assets and superior commercial facilities [2] - The introduction of the "Xiangcheng Smart Cultural Tourism Hard Wallet" allows users to enjoy discounts and participate in digital RMB red envelope activities [2] - Local products such as strawberry wine and specialty rice saw significant sales during the event, indicating strong consumer interest [2]

Core Viewpoint - Beijing's real estate market is experiencing a significant policy adjustment aimed at stimulating consumption and addressing housing needs, particularly for non-local residents and families with multiple children [3][5][42]. Policy Adjustments - The new policy, effective immediately, focuses on key areas such as purchase restrictions, credit, and housing provident fund adjustments [3][5]. - The requirement for non-local families to purchase homes within the Fifth Ring has been reduced from three years of social security or tax payments to two years, and outside the Fifth Ring, it has been further relaxed to one year [7][9]. - Families with two or more children are now allowed to purchase an additional property within the Fifth Ring, addressing their housing needs [10][12]. Financial Implications - Financial institutions will no longer differentiate between first and second homes, implementing a unified mortgage interest rate, which is currently around 3.2% [14]. - The minimum down payment for second homes using the housing provident fund has been reduced from 30% to 25%, easing the financial burden on homebuyers [14][16]. Market Dynamics - The adjustment in land auction processes aims to lower the barriers for companies to acquire land, potentially increasing new housing supply [16]. - Compared to other cities, Beijing's policy changes are not the most aggressive, but they serve as a significant signal for national market trends [20][22]. Broader Context - The adjustments reflect a broader trend of easing restrictions in major cities, with other cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen already implementing more lenient policies [20][26]. - The policy changes are designed to balance the local market with surrounding areas, avoiding excessive pressure on neighboring cities [28]. Future Outlook - The overall impact of these policy changes on the housing market remains uncertain, as many potential buyers are still hesitant due to concerns about falling prices and income stability [30][32]. - The long-term goal of these adjustments is to stabilize housing prices and ensure that the real estate market serves the public's housing needs effectively [40][42].

文 | 赵伟、贾东旭、侯倩楠 联系人 | 侯倩楠 报告正文 （一）中财办解读 2025 年中央经济工作会议精神 中央财办有关负责同志12月16日接受中央主要媒体采访，围绕宏观政策、提振消费、扩大投资、全国统 一大市场建设、高质量充分就业等主题深入解读中央经济工作会议精神。财政政策方面：政策力度上，保持 必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量；政策质效上，提高精准性和有效性；实施时机上，主动靠前发 力。货币政策方面：把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量；加力支持扩大内需、科 技创新、中小微企业等重点领域。 | 图表 18: 中财办同志解读 2025年中央经济工作会议精研 | | | --- | --- | | 时间 主题 | 解读内容 | | | 展望明年，世界经济有望延续温和增长态势，但变数较多。从国内看，我们面临的困难挑战不少，但经济基础稳、优势多、和性强、潜 | | 经济形势 | 能大等长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没有改变...投资和消费增速明年有望恢复，产业转型升级加快，科技和产业创新进入成果集中爆发 | | | 阶段,我国经济发展前景是十分光明的。 | | | 政策力度上，保持必要的财 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the importance of monitoring the real estate market and financial conditions, aiming to ensure stable and healthy development in the sector through various financial policies [1] Group 1: Financial Policies - The PBOC will continue to implement financial policies such as re-loans for affordable housing to support the real estate market [1] - There is a focus on enhancing macro-prudential management of real estate finance to mitigate risks [1] Group 2: Market Stability - The report highlights the need for a steady and orderly improvement of the foundational credit system in real estate [1] - The PBOC aims to promote a new model for real estate development, contributing to the overall stability of the market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The economic indicators in November show a divergence characterized by "strong production but weak demand, strong external demand but weak internal demand," indicating significant short-term downward pressure on the economy. Industrial production and export resilience are supported by ongoing industrial upgrades, while consumption growth is slowing, and investment continues to decline, highlighting insufficient domestic demand [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Dynamics - The economic indicators reflect a need for policy intervention to stabilize domestic demand as consumption growth slows and investment remains at low levels [3]. - Industrial production remains stable, with a year-on-year increase of 6.0% from January to November, slightly above last year's growth rate [4]. - The service sector shows signs of slowing down, with a year-on-year growth of 5.6% from January to November, indicating pressure from real estate and travel-related sectors [5]. Group 2: Consumption Trends - In November, the total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 1.3% year-on-year, reflecting increased pressure on consumption [8]. - The decline in consumption is notably influenced by the automotive sector and the "old-for-new" policy, which have both turned negative [8]. - Despite the overall slowdown, consumption among low- and middle-income groups remains stable, with service retail growth slightly improving [8]. Group 3: Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment decreased by 2.7% year-on-year from January to November, with a notable decline in real estate investment [12]. - Manufacturing investment shows initial signs of stabilization, with a year-on-year growth of 1.9% from January to November, indicating a potential recovery [14]. - Infrastructure investment remains steady, supported by new policy financial tools and fiscal funding, although traditional sectors face ongoing challenges [14]. Group 4: Export Performance - November exports saw a significant year-on-year increase of 5.9%, driven by low base effects and improved export volumes [18]. - Exports to the EU rebounded significantly, while exports to the US continued to decline due to previous import surges [18]. - The overall export resilience is supported by improvements in various product categories, including home appliances and textiles [18]. Group 5: Inflation Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.7% year-on-year in November, supported by low base effects and rising food prices [22]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, with a slight month-on-month increase, indicating a mixed inflationary environment [22]. - Future inflation is expected to continue rising, influenced by domestic policies aimed at expanding demand [24]. Group 6: Financing Conditions - Social financing data in November showed a year-on-year increase of 160 billion yuan, indicating marginal improvements in financing demand driven by policy tools [28]. - However, credit growth remains weak, with new loans significantly lower than previous periods, reflecting ongoing challenges in consumer and housing market confidence [28][29]. - The M1 and M2 money supply growth rates continued to decline, indicating underlying weaknesses in the economy [29].

在很多人的感受中，今年的房地产市场似乎完全由"买家主导"。 什么意思呢？就是说，由于房地产的供给比较丰富，买家并不急于买房。但只要愿意，就一定可以在心仪的地方买到房，而且往往能获得较高的折扣。 这似乎反映了一部分现状，但在实际中，也要具体情况具体分析，因为并非所有的地区都是由"买家主导"，在英国一些地区，有人甚至必须"迅速行动"才 能抢到心仪房产。 Ben Hanley和Chris Adams住在伦敦东区时尚的Fish Island。 就在不久前，他们留意到马路对面有一套更大的公寓在售。尽管两处房产离得并不远，但他们感到必须迅速行动，赶在房价进一步攀升前搬过去，才不至 于被挤出这片心爱的街区。 同时，他们还担心抵押贷款利率突然变动，生怕错过难得的时机，无法锁定更优惠的利率。 37岁的Ben说道："我们看了几套房，它们转眼就没了。机不可失。这是一个我们真正热爱、也想扎根的街区。机会来了，就必须抓住。" 在该行政区的另一端，28岁的George Reynolds也体会到了陶尔哈姆莱茨区购房的激烈程度。 近期，他刚以32.5万英镑的价格，在金丝雀码头（Canary Wharf）南边的狗岛（Isle of Dogs） ...

12月25日，离岸人民币对美元升破7.0关口，为2024年9月以来首次；在岸人民币最高升至7.0061。当 天，中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为1美元对人民币 7.0392元，相较前一交易日中间价7.0471元，调升79个基点，续创2024年10月来新高。 中央经济工作会议在部署2026年经济工作时指出，要保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。人 民币在岸、离岸对美元汇率12月以来均保持强劲，这中间所涉及到的房地产、通胀、价差、利差等一系 列重要因素都不容忽视。野村中国首席经济学家陆挺认为，不如利用出口大幅增长带来的这一时间窗 口，通过结构性改革，来拉动内需，苦练内功，带动经济增长。 中美价差对人民币实际汇率形成怎样的支撑？物价水平将如何改变人民币实际汇率？房地产和汇率之间 存在着什么样的关系？需要引导人民币继续升值吗？汇率政策的安全边际应该如何界定？汇率政策在明 年整体的货币政策中的影响权重如何？明年美联储的货币政策调整对汇率有什么样的影响？第一财经 《首席对策》专访野村中国首席经济学家陆挺。 过去5年中美汇率变化不大 真正的差别表现在物价上 预言明年结束负通胀为时 ...

12月26日，厦门国贸涨5.67%，截至发稿，报8.38元/股，成交17.31亿元，换手率10.39%，总市值179.13 亿元。厦门国贸股价已经连续5天上涨，区间累计涨幅27.7%。 资料显示，厦门国贸集团股份有限公司位于福建省厦门市湖里区仙岳路4688号国贸中心，成立日期1996 年12月24日，上市日期1996年10月3日，公司主营业务涉及供应链管理、房地产经营、金融服务。主营 业务收入构成为：供应链管理业务99.63%，健康科技业务0.36%，其他板块业务0.02%。 从基金十大重仓股角度 数据显示，易方达基金旗下1只基金重仓厦门国贸。易方达国证自由现金流ETF（159222）三季度减持 52.49万股，持有股数171.62万股，占基金净值比例为2.8%，位居第十大重仓股。根据测算，今日浮盈 赚取约77.23万元。连续5天上涨期间浮盈赚取295.19万元。 易方达国证自由现金流ETF（159222）成立日期2025年4月9日，最新规模3.79亿。成立以来收益 27.31%。 易方达国证自由现金流ETF（159222）基金经理为张泽峰。 从厦门国贸十大流通股东角度 数据显示，易方达基金旗下1只基金位居厦 ...