Report Information - Report Title: Coking Coal Daily Report - Research Team: Black Team of the Research Center - Report Date: January 28, 2026 [1] Key Data Summary Coal Prices - The latest price of Liulin Main Coking Coal is 1483.00, with no daily change, a weekly increase of 57.00, a monthly increase of 33.00, and a yearly increase of 11.76% [2] - The latest price of Raw Coal Port Delivery Price is 1003.00, with a daily decrease of 37.00, a weekly decrease of 17.00, a monthly increase of 48.00, and a yearly increase of 8.43% [2] - The latest price of Shaheyi Meng 5 is 1400.00, with no daily change, no weekly change, a monthly increase of 60.00, and a yearly increase of 2.94% [2] - The latest price of Anze Main Coking Coal is 1640.00, with no daily change, a weekly increase of 20.00, a monthly increase of 40.00, and a yearly increase of 17.14% [2] Inventory - The total inventory is 4099.62, with a weekly increase of 12.02, a monthly increase of 88.22, and a yearly decrease of 15.89% [2] - The coal mine inventory is 274.35, with a weekly increase of 1.98, a monthly decrease of 8.55, and a yearly decrease of 37.42% [2] - The port inventory is 298.90, with a weekly decrease of 0.90, a monthly increase of 12.73, and a yearly decrease of 35.20% [2] - The steel mill coking coal inventory is 802.20, with a weekly increase of 4.47, a monthly decrease of 2.79, and a yearly decrease of 3.06% [2] - The coking plant coking coal inventory is 1132.85, with a weekly increase of 61.17, a monthly increase of 96.56, and a yearly decrease of 2.21% [2] Other Data - The coking capacity utilization rate is 72.41, with a weekly decrease of 0.14, a monthly increase of 0.75, and a yearly decrease of 0.29% [2] - The coking plant coke inventory is 85.71, with a weekly increase of 0.33, a monthly increase of 0.19, and a yearly increase of 0.86% [2] - The 05 contract basis is 4.75, with a daily increase of 21.50, a weekly decrease of 10.00, a monthly increase of 46.06, and a yearly increase of 35.58 [2] - The 09 contract basis is -71.75, with a daily increase of 21.50, a weekly decrease of 12.00, a monthly increase of 43.56, and a yearly decrease of 0.34 [2] - The 01 contract basis is -244.25, with a daily increase of 16.00, a weekly decrease of 23.00, a monthly decrease of 287.94, and a yearly increase of 0.74 [2] - The 5 - 9 spread is -76.50, with no daily change, a weekly decrease of 2.00, a monthly decrease of 2.50, and a yearly decrease of 0.03 [2] - The 9 - 1 spread is -172.50, with a daily decrease of 5.50, a weekly decrease of 11.00, a monthly decrease of 331.50, and a yearly increase of 4.56 [2] - The 1 - 5 spread is 249.00, with a daily increase of 5.50, a weekly increase of 13.00, a monthly increase of 334.00, and a yearly increase of 1.27 [2]

2026年01月28日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：刚需仍存，价格震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：原料短期价格松动，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：原料短期价格松动，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：产业叠加资金配合，区间震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：产业叠加资金配合，区间震荡 | 7 | | 动力煤：供需趋于双弱，煤价企稳小幅探涨 | 9 | | 原木：区间震荡 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 28 日 铁矿石：刚需仍存，价格震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | 期 货 | | | 昨日收盘价（元/吨） | 涨跌（元/吨） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 3.5 | 0.45% | | | I2605 | ...

最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 秦皇岛5500 695.0 0.0 -1.0 9.0 -70.0 25省终端可用天数 18.1 -0.3 -1.8 -2.8 0.5 秦皇岛5000 609.0 1.0 -1.0 24.0 -61.0 25省终端供煤 618.4 0.5 9.9 -21.6 -4.4 广州港5500 795.0 0.0 0.0 -15.0 -65.0 北方港库存 2409.0 -18.0 -91.0 -333.0 32.2 鄂尔多斯5500 490.0 0.0 0.0 -5.0 -60.0 北方锚地船舶 67.0 -3.0 -28.0 -4.0 10.0 大同5500 545.0 0.0 0.0 -5.0 -85.0 北方港调入量 125.1 -19.2 -22.7 -13.4 -9.9 榆林6000 670.0 0.0 0.0 -20.0 -92.0 北方港吞吐量 162.4 6.5 18.5 20.0 14.6 榆林6200 745.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -45.0 CBCFI海运指数 679.2 -2.3 45.3 38.6 201.7 2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [8] 2. Core View of the Report - The current black building materials market is under real - world pressure, with the futures market running weakly. The slow resumption of steel mills, high iron ore shipments and inventories, and the weakening support of coal - coke restocking all contribute to the weak market. In the off - season, the steel inventory accumulation pressure is increasing, the cost support is loosening, and the supply - demand surplus of glass and soda ash continues to suppress prices. Although there is downward pressure on the short - term futures market, there is a possibility of a low - level rebound in furnace material prices before the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to downstream restocking efforts and macro - policy disturbances [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Supply**: Iron ore arrivals have decreased, temporarily alleviating supply pressure, but inventory pressure is still increasing. There are still disturbance expectations on the supply side due to weather. Scrap steel supply has rebounded, and daily consumption is expected to decline [2] - **Demand**: Before the festival, restocking supports ore prices, but the actual supply - demand situation on both sides remains to be verified. Scrap steel consumption is expected to decline, and the overall fundamentals will marginally weaken, with spot prices expected to follow finished products [2] 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: The cost support is strong, and there are still expectations of steel mill复产 and winter restocking demand. The contradiction in the supply - demand structure is limited, and spot price increases are still expected to be implemented. The futures market is expected to follow coking coal [2] - **Coking Coal**: The demand side is still in the process of winter restocking, and the supply side is expected to see a decline in coal mine production near the holiday. The fundamentals will continue to improve marginally, with strong spot support. However, after the futures market has priced in the winter restocking, the positive driving force of the fundamentals is limited, and it is expected to oscillate [2] 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: Cost support has loosened, the market supply - demand is in a loose state, and the upstream inventory reduction pressure is large. The futures price is under pressure, but the room for further decline is limited, and it is expected to run at a low level around the cost valuation [3] - **Silicon Iron**: The market has a situation of weak supply and demand, with limited fundamental contradictions. The poor market trading activity suppresses the upward space of the futures price, and it is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation in the short term [3] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: There are still disturbance expectations on the supply side, but the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. Currently, the supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair by the end of the year, high inventory will suppress prices, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, prices will rise [3] - **Soda Ash**: The overall supply - demand is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and in the long term, the supply surplus pattern will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity reduction [3] 3.5 Specific Commodity Analysis - **Steel**: The cost support has shifted downwards, and the futures market is running weakly. The spot market trading is generally weak, the steel mill profitability rate is improving, the iron water output has stopped falling and stabilized, and the demand is seasonally weak. There is pressure on inventory accumulation, and the short - term futures market still has downward pressure, but the downward space is limited [10] - **Iron Ore**: The spot price is stable with a slight upward trend, and port trading has decreased month - on - month. Overseas mine shipments have increased, arrivals have weakened, and the supply side is affected by weather. The demand side has stable rigid demand, and steel mills are restocking with weak enthusiasm. Port and steel mill inventories are increasing, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [10][11] - **Scrap Steel**: This week's arrivals have decreased, and the spot price has risen slightly. Supply has declined slightly, demand is expected to decrease, and the overall fundamentals will marginally weaken, with spot prices expected to follow finished products [12] - **Coke**: The futures market oscillates, and the cost support is strong. The steel mills are resistant to price increases, and the environmental protection disturbances are frequent. The demand side has a slight increase in iron water output, and the inventory is increasing. Spot price increases are still expected to be implemented, and the futures market is expected to follow coking coal [12][14] - **Coking Coal**: The futures market is stable, and the supply is stable with high imports. The demand side is in the process of winter restocking, and the inventory is gradually reaching the target. After the futures market has priced in the restocking, the positive driving force is limited, and it is expected to oscillate [15] - **Glass**: The spot price has risen month - on - month, and the futures market oscillates. The supply side has limited losses, and there is unlikely to be a large - scale cold repair in the short term. The demand side is weak, and the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. If there is no more cold repair, prices will be weakly oscillating; otherwise, prices will rise [16] - **Soda Ash**: The supply has increased month - on - month, and the spot contradictions are limited. The supply side has a slight increase in daily output, the demand side has a weakening trend, and the supply - demand is in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and decline in the long term [16] - **Manganese Silicon**: The inventory pressure is large, and the futures price is weakly sorted. The cost support has loosened, the supply - demand is loose, and the upstream inventory reduction pressure is large. The futures price is expected to run at a low level around the cost valuation [18] - **Silicon Iron**: The trading atmosphere is poor, and the futures market is weakly oscillating. The cost support has loosened, the supply - demand is weak, and the trading activity suppresses the upward space. It is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation in the short term [19]

Group 1 - The latest dividend yield for Hwabao Fund is 4.76% as of January 28, 2026 [1] - The S&P A-Share Dividend ETF (Hwabao 562060) has shown a performance of 1.85% over the past week, 10.94% over the past month, and -0.09% over the past year [1] - The annualized volatility for the S&P A-Share Dividend ETF is reported at 24.01% [1] Group 2 - The S&P Hong Kong Stock Connect Low Volatility Dividend Index has a performance of -0.01% over the past year and 2.21% over the past month [2] - The annualized volatility for the S&P Hong Kong Stock Connect Low Volatility Dividend Index is 11.74% [2] - The A500 Low Volatility Dividend ETF (159296) has shown a performance of 3.25% over the past year [2] Group 3 - The latest dividend yield for the A500 Low Volatility Dividend ETF is 4.66% [5] - The performance of the A500 Low Volatility Dividend ETF over the past month is -0.74% [5] - The annualized volatility for the A500 Low Volatility Dividend ETF is reported at 8.69% [5] Group 4 - The latest dividend yield for the 800 Low Volatility Dividend ETF is 4.67% [5] - The performance of the 800 Low Volatility Dividend ETF over the past year is 1.02% [5] - The annualized volatility for the 800 Low Volatility Dividend ETF is reported at 8.49% [5]

20260128申万期货品种策略日报-双焦(JI&J) | | 申银万国期货研究所 沈击奉 (从业编号F03148029 交易咨询号Z0022842) | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | shenyb@sywggh. com. cn 021-50582113 | | | | | | | | | IL | | | | | 11 | | | | | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | | | 前1日收盘价 | 1373.0 | 1116.5 | 1195.0 | 1842. 0 | 1668.0 | 1736.5 | | | 前2日收盘价 | 1403.0 | 1159. 5 | 1237.5 | 1887. 0 | 1719.0 | 1788. 5 | | EH | 煮跌 | -30. 0 | -43.0 | -42.5 | -45.0 | -51. 0 | -52.0 | | स्त | 廉政幅 | -2.14% | -3. 71% | -3. 43% | -2. 38% | -2. 9 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2026年01月28日08时21分 报告导读： 供需方面，上周的数据显示螺纹产量环比增加 ，整体库存增加，螺纹表观需求环比回落，五大品种表观需求整体回落，库存增加，产量基本维持不 变。整体来看，目前市场整体处于消费淡季，产量、需求处于低位，库存从低位回升。央行下调再贷款再贴现利率在一定程度上提振市场信心 ，未 来仍有降准和降息的空间，不排除央行将很快行动。从技术面看，目前期价在上下 100 元/吨的区间窄幅震荡，可能面临方向选择 操作建议： 多单轻仓持有，待期价回落至震荡区间下沿附近后再逢低加仓 ，中线交易。不可以追涨杀跌 | 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3126 | -17 | -0.54% | 15 | 0.48% | | 期现货价格 | 热轧卷板主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3289 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - On January 27, 2026, equity index and CGB futures were mixed, and most commodities showed lower performance, with AU, AG, and vegetable oils rising [2][10][11]. - The profits of China's SVIA rose by 0.6% in 2025 [1][3][36]. - Hong Kong will launch offshore treasury bond futures and expand the interest rate derivatives business under the "Stock Connect" [37]. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On January 27, equity index and CGB futures were mixed. In equity index futures, IC rose 0.6% and IF dropped 0.2%; in CGB futures, T rose 0.00% and TL dropped 0.33%. In commodity futures, most showed lower performance, with AU, AG, and vegetable oils rising. The top three gainers were Silver, RBD Palm Olein, and Tin, while the top three decliners were Platinum, PTA, and Coking Coal [10][11][12]. 1.2 Daily Raise - **RBD Palm Olein**: Rose 2.7% to 9,238 yuan/ton on January 27. It is set to enter a production decline season with an expected inventory destocking trend, and the market is projected to trade sideways with a bullish bias. The recent rise in crude oil prices and bullish fundamental expectations have underpinned the overall uptrend of vegetable oils. Attention should be paid to biodiesel policies and export performance in producing regions, and the arbitrage strategy of long palm oil and short rapeseed oil is recommended [15][18][19]. 1.3 Daily Drop - **Coking Coal**: Dropped 3.0% to 1,116.5 yuan/ton on January 27. Demand - side winter stockpiling is still underway, and supply - side coal mines are expected to see a production decline as the holiday approaches. The fundamentals will continue to improve marginally with strong spot market support, but the bullish driving force from fundamentals is limited, and the market is expected to trade sideways [22][24][25]. - **Coke**: Dropped 2.8% to 1,668.0 yuan/ton on January 27. Supported by a firm cost side, coupled with lingering expectations of steel mill resumptions and remaining demand for winter stockpiling replenishment, the coke market faces limited supply - demand structural imbalances. Spot price hikes are still expected to materialize, and the futures market is projected to track the movement of coking coal [28][32][33]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - In 2025, China's industrial enterprises above designated size achieved a total profit of 7.3982 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.6% [36]. 2.2 Industry News - Hong Kong Chief Executive Li Jiachao stated that Hong Kong will launch offshore treasury bond futures and expand the interest rate derivatives business under the "Stock Connect" [37].

预计Q4单季盈利环比下滑，业绩预期加总环比变动约为-11.03%，其中动力煤/焦煤公司环 比-10%/+18%，显示焦煤公司在25Q3低盈利的基数上，煤价上涨对业绩弹性的贡献更大。在此业绩预 期上，该行假设各公司2025年分红比例延续2024年实际分红水平，测算样本公司平均股息率约为 2.4%，仅4家公司股息率有望超过4%。 智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，2025年下半年煤炭板块景气已有所回暖，2026年上市公司业 绩或跟随煤价有所改善，红利龙头若维持分红比例不变，股息率也将有小幅提升。因此，该行预计板块 在2026年会有阶段性行情，行业驱动或来自于红利风格的轮动、或来自于阶段性煤价预期差带来的反弹 行情。配置机会或来自于三条主线，一是逢低配置、长期持有动力煤红利龙头；二是关注有产能扩张、 受益于政策，具备Alpha的公司；三是把握煤价预期差驱动的反弹行情，建议届时阶段性关注业绩弹性 大的公司。短期而言，基于2025年业绩预期，该行建议关注2025Q4有望实现较大幅度业绩环比改善的 公司。 中信证券主要观点如下： 2025Q4多数煤种价格环比上涨，全年煤价同比下行。 根据中国煤炭市场网数据，25Q4 ...

（文章来源：第一财经） 开源证券指出，资本市场在全球政经高度不确定以及国内稳经济的预期下，投资行为存在情绪上的脉 冲，煤炭板块具备周期与红利的双重属性，当前煤炭持仓低位，基本面已到拐点右侧，已到布局时点。 ...