Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart is experiencing significant revenue and net profit growth, with expectations for continued strong performance in the coming years [1][3][4]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, Pop Mart reported revenue of 45.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62.0%, and a net profit of 9.21 billion yuan, up 93.32% [1][2]. - The company anticipates revenue growth of no less than 200% and net profit growth of no less than 350% for the six months ending June 30, 2025, compared to the same period in 2024 [1][4]. Growth Drivers - The board attributes the substantial growth to increased global brand recognition, diverse product offerings, and continuous revenue growth across all regional markets [3]. - The rising proportion of overseas revenue has positively impacted gross and net profit margins, alongside scale effects enhancing profitability [3]. - Cost optimization and improved expense management have further strengthened the company's profitability [3]. Future Outlook - Management is confident in achieving over 50% sales growth in 2025, with overseas sales expected to double, targeting overall sales of 200 billion yuan and overseas sales exceeding 100 billion yuan [4]. Market Performance - Since January, Pop Mart's stock price has surged over 200%, reaching a peak of 283.4 HKD, although it has recently experienced a correction, closing at 263.20 HKD on July 15 [5]. - Analysts are optimistic about Pop Mart's future, with target prices exceeding 300 HKD, citing the strong performance of various IPs and the company's core competencies in IP incubation and operation [6].

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Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart's performance has significantly improved, with expected revenue growth of over 200% and profit growth of over 350% for the first half of the year, driven by increased global brand recognition and rising overseas revenue share [1][4][7]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Pop Mart anticipates revenue for the first half of 2025 to exceed 137 billion yuan, with net profit surpassing 41 billion yuan, indicating that both revenue and profit have already exceeded the total for the previous year [11][12]. - The company reported a 62% year-on-year revenue increase to 45.58 billion yuan and a 93.32% increase in net profit to 9.21 billion yuan for the first half of 2024 [10]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - As a leader in the new consumption sector, Pop Mart's strong performance alleviates investor concerns regarding its high valuation, with future stock performance dependent on maintaining high growth and profit margins [2][15]. - The company's overseas revenue share is increasing, positively impacting gross and net profits, while scale effects have significantly boosted profitability [8][9]. Group 3: Analyst Insights - UBS forecasts that Pop Mart's cash flow return on investment (CFROI) will exceed 40% by 2025-2026, driven by sales doubling and EBITDA margin recovery [22][23]. - Citi has raised its profit forecasts for Pop Mart for 2025-2027 by 38% to 49%, expecting net profit growth of 124% and 40% for the next two years [16][17]. Group 4: Product and Brand Development - The popularity of Pop Mart's flagship IP, Labubu, is expanding globally, particularly in North America and Europe, with new product launches expected to act as short-term catalysts [18][19]. - The "Labubu craze" is also gaining traction in Australia, with significant sales figures reported for Labubu apparel [27]. Group 5: Stock Performance and Valuation - Pop Mart's stock price has increased by 194.68% year-to-date, closing at 263.2 HKD per share, with a market capitalization of 353.63 billion HKD [13]. - UBS's valuation model suggests three potential stock price scenarios based on growth and margin sustainability, indicating a possible 43% upside if growth continues [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Since 2025, the bond market has shown a "mountain" - shaped trend, with various meta - stories attracting market attention. However, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield has been oscillating within a narrow range around 1.75%, and it is difficult for interest rates to break through previous lows due to multiple constraints [3][7]. - The market needs to reconstruct stories in several aspects, such as the decoupling of real estate and interest rates, explaining new consumption through structural "breakthroughs", the end of the global low - interest - rate era, focusing on the endogenous economic momentum, and the need for step - by - step verification from commodity supply - demand, PPI - CPI to interest rates [3]. - In the second half of the year, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield is expected to be between 1.6% and 1.9%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond yield between 1.8% and 2.1%. The funds will remain flat, the yield curve will steepen, and the long - end bond interest rate will be priced around the policy rate + funds rate weighted + 30/40BP, with the interest rate peak likely to occur in the fourth quarter [3][137]. - In terms of strategies, it is recommended to maintain a neutral duration. For credit bonds, look for opportunities in short - end credit sinking and long - end high - grade bonds; for interest - rate bonds, seek opportunities in old bonds, local bonds, and non - key - maturity Treasury bonds [138][143]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamentals: Growth without Real Estate, Desensitization of Commodities and Interest Rates - The influence of the real estate sector on the bond market and GDP has been declining. The trading volume proportion of real - estate - related stocks in the A - share market has decreased from 5.58% in 2015 to 1.04% in 2025, and its weight in the Shanghai Composite Index has dropped from 4.32% in 2016 to 1.17%. The impact of real estate fluctuations on GDP has also weakened [9]. - Commodity prices, represented by real - estate - related commodities such as rebar and glass, have continued to decline. The prices of rebar and glass futures have dropped by 9% and 24% respectively as of June 30 [16]. - By observing economic indicators excluding real estate and liquor, it can be found that the market risk preference has increased, and asset prices are decoupling from the real - estate chain and the liquor industry [18][23]. 3.2 Inflation: New Consumption "Everywhere", but "Invisible" in Prices - The CPI growth rate has been low this year, but there are some signs of new consumption, such as the popularity of premium blind boxes and high - end beauty products. The traditional inflation framework may have failed, and the re - inflation framework of optional consumption has emerged [26]. - The Lego price index shows that Lego investment has a high return rate, and its price increase is not in line with the global CPI trend. China's new consumption represented by trendy toys may be experiencing a "Lego moment" [30]. - The growth logic of trendy toys such as Lego and Pop Mart is similar, including first - level quantity control, second - level circulation platforms, emotional value provision, etc. The new consumption represented by trendy toys may be at the starting point of price increases, and the traditional inflation narrative is changing [33][37]. 3.3 Economic "Scar Effect" Integral Repair: Endogenous Growth Curve of Technology and Consumption Phenomena 3.3.1 Bottom - up Integration of Technology and Consumption - The development of the technology industry, such as the rise of DeepSeek, is the result of the overseas AI model impact - response structure. The development of the AI industry has promoted the growth of product performance and asset prices [38][40]. - The growth of new consumption is also the result of long - term "integration". The performance growth of new - consumption companies is not fully reflected in their stock prices. The popularity of trendy toys represented by Pop Mart is the response to the endogenous demand of new - consumption structure [41][45]. 3.3.2 Looking at Consumption through Subsidies: Is it Demand Front - loading or Release of Endogenous Momentum? - The national subsidy for trading in old products for new ones has boosted social retail sales. However, there are concerns about the continuation of the subsidy in the second half of the year. Even if the subsidy declines, consumption still has growth potential in non - subsidy commodities and service - based consumption [51][58]. 3.4 Global Interest - Rate Perspective: The Lagged Effect of China's Interest Rates Breaking out of the "ZLB" (Zero - Lower - Bound) Zone 3.4.1 Global Perspective: Quantitative Evidence of the Gradual Rise of the Interest - Rate Level - Most countries have basically emerged from the ZLB zone. The global interest - rate factor has shown an upward trend, and China's bond market has had an independent downward trend in the past three years, but the future interest - rate level may rebound with the global trend [68][71]. - Through principal component analysis of the policy rates of 39 major countries and regions, the first and second factors have an explanatory power of 66.81% and 23.29% respectively. China's interest - rate trend is relatively independent of these global factors [74]. 3.4.2 China's Interest Rates May be Experiencing the Lagged Conduction of the Global Interest - Rate Upturn - Most countries that entered the low - interest - rate zone did not stay there permanently. Japan, which has been in the low - interest - rate zone for the longest time, also had multiple interest - rate rebounds. China's interest - rate decline may be a lagged effect, and it is difficult for China's interest rates to remain low independently of the global trend for a long time [82][94]. 3.4.3 Internal Factors Determine the Direction, External Factors Determine the Fluctuation - Tariffs are not the decisive factor for asset prices and the economic fundamentals this year. The internal factors of consumption, such as the recovery of tourism consumption, the formation of new - consumption trends, and the increase in consumer - loan growth, are more important [104][106]. - A stable trading framework for dealing with external tariff events can be established in three steps: setting a baseline, making qualitative predictions, and adjusting the baseline according to market changes [110]. 3.5 Institutional Behavior: Liability Shortage under Sufficient Liquidity? - The characteristics of institutional behavior this year are limited allocation - disk funds and a decline in the winning rate of trading - disk operations. Insurance companies have shifted to equity assets, and banks have suffered from liability - end losses, while rural commercial banks, as the main trading - disk institutions, have a lower winning rate [111][114]. - The change from sufficient liquidity to liability shortage is mainly due to the transformation of deposits from time to demand and the transfer from bank deposits to non - bank deposits. This will bring problems such as pressure on bank certificate of deposit issuance, differences in the assets and liabilities of large and small banks, and banks' need to sell bonds to support profits [118][126]. - Insurance companies' bond - buying behavior has shown trading characteristics, and bank - wealth management growth has been relatively weak [128][130]. 3.6 Changes are Brewing in the Quietness - The stock, bond, and commodity markets have shown seemingly contradictory trends this year. The equity market is relatively strong, the bond market is average, and the commodity market is weak. The pricing of the equity market is more leading and sensitive [134]. - In the second half of the year, the central bank's total - volume monetary policy is not expected to be overly loose. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield is expected to be between 1.6% and 1.9%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond yield between 1.8% and 2.1%. The yield curve will steepen, and the interest - rate peak may occur in the fourth quarter [136][137]. - Technically, the Treasury - bond futures price is in a volatile market, and there are still cautious factors in the medium term. In terms of strategies, it is recommended to maintain a neutral duration and look for opportunities in credit and interest - rate bonds [138][143].

Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart expects significant revenue and profit growth, projecting a revenue increase of no less than 200% and a profit increase of no less than 350% for the six months ending June 30, 2025 compared to the same period in 2024 [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, Pop Mart reported revenue of 4.558 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62.0%, and a net profit of 921 million yuan, up 93.32% year-on-year [1] - Adjusted net profit for the same period was 1.018 billion yuan, reflecting a 90.1% increase year-on-year [1] - The company’s revenue for the first half of 2024 is projected to exceed 13.7 billion yuan, with net profit exceeding 4.1 billion yuan and adjusted net profit exceeding 4.6 billion yuan [1] Growth Drivers - The board attributes the significant performance increase to several factors: 1. Enhanced global brand recognition and diverse product categories driving revenue growth across all regional markets [2] 2. Increasing overseas revenue proportion positively impacting gross and net profit margins [2] 3. Continuous optimization of product costs and improved expense management enhancing profitability [2] Market Outlook - In Q1 2025, Pop Mart reported a revenue growth of 165%-170%, with Chinese revenue increasing by 95%-100% and overseas revenue soaring by 475%-480% [6] - The management is confident in achieving over 50% sales growth in 2025, with overseas sales expected to double, targeting overall sales of 20 billion yuan and overseas sales exceeding 10 billion yuan [6] - The stock price has seen a significant increase, reaching a peak of 283.4 HKD, with a cumulative rise of over 200% since January [6] Competitive Position - Analysts note a rising trend in the popularity of multiple IPs, with products like Molly and CRYBABY selling out and commanding premiums in the secondary market [7] - The core competitive advantage of Pop Mart lies in its IP incubation and operational mechanisms, which have been validated over the years [7] - The company continues to expand its product offerings, with new stores launching in major cities and introducing various popular IP series [7]

Core Insights - The article highlights the significance of the "first store economy" in Beijing, particularly in the Sanlitun Taikoo Li shopping district, which has attracted over 300 high-quality flagship and first stores since 2016 [4] Group 1: First Store Economy - Sanlitun Taikoo Li serves as a key platform for the "first store economy," featuring numerous flagship stores and innovative business models [4] - The district has introduced a significant number of tax refund stores, with over 300 expected by May 2025, making it the most concentrated area for tax refund stores in Beijing [4] Group 2: Brand Highlights - The first brand featured, Tao Tao Ju, is a century-old Cantonese tea house that opened its first store in Beijing at Sanlitun Taikoo Li, designed with traditional Lingnan architectural elements [4] - GB DAVID, a high-end French leather goods brand, opened its first store in Beijing at Sanlitun Taikoo Li, offering over 1,000 products and attracting over 50% of customers from outside the local area [5] Group 3: Taxation and Support Services - The Chaoyang District Taxation Bureau has implemented a "tax service manager" model to assist first stores and innovative business models, providing tailored guidance on tax incentives [7] - The tax bureau has also streamlined tax registration and invoice application processes, significantly reducing operational costs for businesses [4][7] Group 4: Innovations in Tax Refund Services - New initiatives in tax refund services include expanding the network of refund stores, enhancing "buy and refund" services, and providing multilingual support for international tourists [8] - The establishment of bilingual service points and collaboration with customs and merchants for refund process simulations aims to facilitate a seamless experience for foreign visitors [8]

Core Insights - The popularity of LABUBU has surged since April, peaking in June before stabilizing, while Shanghai Disneyland's summer products have become a new consumer hit [1][4] - China's toy exports, particularly dolls and animal toys, exceeded 13.31 billion yuan in the first four months of the year, marking a 9.6% increase [4][6] Group 1: Market Trends - LABUBU's secondary market prices have fluctuated significantly, with limited and hidden editions selling for up to 4000 yuan, while the official price was only 99 yuan [4][5] - The recent influx of supply from the official side has led to a decrease in secondary market prices, indicating a shift in market dynamics [5][6] Group 2: Counterfeit Issues - The rise of LABUBU has led to a surge in counterfeit products, prompting customs to intensify efforts against fake LABUBU items, with significant seizures reported [4][5] - Customs officials have provided tips for identifying genuine LABUBU products, emphasizing the importance of specific design features [4][5] Group 3: Global Expansion - Chinese toy companies are increasingly focusing on international markets after establishing successful domestic models, with LABUBU's global success driving interest in overseas expansion [7][8] - Social media has played a crucial role in the rapid rise of Chinese toy brands, facilitating viral marketing and consumer engagement [6][8] Group 4: Future Prospects - The potential for new top-tier IPs to emerge in the wake of LABUBU's success is high, as various brands are actively developing unique products for both domestic and international markets [7][12] - The integration of traditional Chinese culture into toy design is seen as a pathway for creating innovative IPs that resonate globally [12]

泡泡玛特公告，预期本集团截至2025年6月30日止六个月之收入可能较截至2024年6月30日止六个月之收 入增长不低于200%；预期本期间本集团溢利(不包括未完成统计的金融工具的公允价值变动损益)较本集 团去年同期溢利可能录得增长不低于350%。 ...

Group 1: Market Trends - The micro-drama market in China is projected to reach 50.5 billion yuan in 2024, surpassing annual box office revenue for the first time, with expectations of 63.43 billion yuan in 2025 and 85.65 billion yuan in 2027 [1] - Xiaomi's YU7 SUV, launched on June 26, achieved over 200,000 pre-orders in just 3 minutes and 289,000 in 1 hour, priced at 253,500 yuan [1] - The popularity of plush toys like the Labubu has seen prices soar to over 10,000 yuan, indicating a trend in collectible and emotional purchases [1] Group 2: "She Economy" Concept - The "She Economy" is identified as a driving force in the market, with women increasingly becoming key decision-makers in household purchases, including cars and real estate [3][4] - Data shows that women aged 18-45 contribute 71% of fast-moving consumer goods spending, 68% of beauty product purchases, and 63% of education spending, highlighting their significant economic influence [6] Group 3: Consumer Behavior - There is a shift from rational to emotional consumption, with women leading this trend by purchasing items based on emotional value rather than just functionality or price [7][9] - Brands that understand and cater to women's emotional needs and aesthetic preferences are more likely to succeed in the current market [10][11] Group 4: Brand Marketing Strategies - Successful brands are shifting their focus from product functionality to emotional resonance, creating narratives that align with women's experiences and aspirations [10][12] - The ability to "create dreams" and connect with consumers on an emotional level is becoming a core competitive advantage for brands [11][12] Group 5: Future Implications - The evolving role of women as not just consumers but as trendsetters and decision-makers in the market is reshaping the landscape of brand marketing and product development [12][13] - Companies that can effectively engage with and understand the "She Economy" will have a strategic advantage in capturing market share and driving growth [13]

Core Viewpoint - The BW2025 exhibition highlights the trend of IP diversification, with a significant presence of domestic cultural IPs, indicating a growing market for IP-derived products as consumer disposable income increases [1][2]. Group 1: Exhibition Insights - The BW2025 exhibition, organized by Bilibili, serves as a platform for content creators and derivative product vendors, showcasing a variety of brands including Qizhi Haowan, Deli, and Aofei Entertainment [2]. - Companies are increasingly building IP matrices to leverage popular IPs for natural traffic while avoiding intense competition in saturated markets [2]. - Popular IPs such as Conan, Fuliang, and others have multiple toy companies vying for their licensing, indicating a competitive landscape [2]. Group 2: Product Development Trends - There is a rapid expansion of product types among toy companies based on IP, with leaders like Kayi and Jikasa diversifying into plush toys, stationery, and more [3]. - The integration of IP into various product lines is expected to create effective synergy and enhance the overall value of the IP [3]. - The importance of operational and channel capabilities of leading toy companies is emphasized as they navigate the increasingly interconnected product landscape [3]. Group 3: Consumer Engagement - Emotional value and interactive gaming experiences are becoming prominent, with card companies setting up live battle areas to meet social needs [3]. - Events such as Coser interactions and product exchanges at the exhibition enhance the engagement and popularity of IP products [3].