近期期货铂、钯涨势凌厉，12月以来持续爆发。广期所铂期货累计涨幅超40%，钯期货达43%，在昨日双双涨停后，今日铂 期货继续涨停，钯期货大涨5%。 众所周知，期货交易一般自带约8倍到10倍杠杆，投资者仅需少量保证金即可控制大额合约。若价格几天涨40%，按杠杆效应 计算，炒作资金实际收益达320%至400%，相当于本金翻3倍到4倍，收益被大幅放大。 这一轮暴涨并非偶然，而是成本上升、供应短缺、政策扰动与新兴需求爆发等多重因素共振的结果。 这种高度集中的供应格局，使得铂市场对单一国家或企业的扰动极为敏感。南非的电力短缺问题长期困扰矿山生产，近年来 频繁的限电导致矿山开工率不足，产量稳定性大打折扣；俄乌冲突持续影响俄罗斯铂钯出口，西方制裁导致部分供应链中 断，进一步收紧全球供应。 此外，全球新矿山勘探与开发进度缓慢，优质资源储量减少，叠加开采难度加大、环保成本上升等因素，未来3-5年内铂钯矿 山产能难以实现大幅增长，供应端增长潜力受限。 01 供需双重利好 在供应端，全球铂供应呈现出显著的"寡头垄断"特征，生产集中度极高，且高度依赖南非与俄罗斯两大资源国。 从产量分布来看，铂金全球矿山产量约176吨，加上回收量后总 ...

以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成投资建议。 fund 从资金流向上来看，当日贵金属板块主力资金净流入5.41亿元，游资资金净流出3.75亿元，散户资金净 流出1.65亿元。贵金属板块个股资金流向见下表： 证券之星消息，12月23日贵金属板块较上一交易日上涨2.63%，山东黄金领涨。当日上证指数报收于 3919.98，上涨0.07%。深证成指报收于13368.99，上涨0.27%。贵金属板块个股涨跌见下表： ...

Core Viewpoint - The prices of gold and silver have reached historical highs, with gold rising by 1.33% to $4420.47 per ounce, marking a 68% increase for the year, while silver has seen a nearly 139% increase [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The strong performance in the precious metals market has positively impacted the stock market, particularly in the A-share market, where the precious metals sector has shown overall strength [3]. - Notable stocks such as WanGuo Gold Group, China National Gold International, China Silver Group, Zijin Mining, and LaoPu Gold have experienced significant price increases [3]. Group 2: Factors Driving Gold Prices - The weakening of the US dollar is a key variable influencing gold prices, as historical data shows an inverse relationship between gold and the dollar. The current dollar depreciation supports higher gold prices [3][4]. - Persistent market expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve enhance the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold, especially as traditional high-yield assets face adjustments [4]. - Gold's inherent value preservation and anti-inflation properties are gaining attention amid concerns over fiscal imbalances and long-term inflation levels [4]. - Increased geopolitical uncertainties have heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, providing additional support for gold prices [4]. Group 3: Overall Market Outlook - The primary drivers of the current gold price increase can be summarized as the global trend towards accommodative monetary policies by major central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve, and concerns over valuation bubbles in technology assets prompting a shift towards physical assets like gold [4]. - The precious metals market is expected to remain active in the short term, influenced by monetary policy expectations, inflation data, and changes in the international environment [4].

一、基本面： 美联储理事米兰表态支持降息50个基点的必要性减弱，偏鹰派的言论本身对黄金构成压力，因其暗示利率在高位维持更 久，提升持有无息黄金的机会成本。然而，美国总统特朗普可能于明年1月初任命新的美联储主席，这一关键人事变动悬念 引入了政策路径的不确定性。若新任主席的政策倾向与市场预期产生偏差，可能引发金融市场波动，并对美元信用体系形 成潜在扰动，从而在中长期维度上对金价形成隐蔽支撑。 上图为黄金15分钟图。从均线来看，价格自低位拉起后均线呈现多头排列，显示行情多头动能充足，在昨日突破前期历史 高点4381.0附近后，价格保持匀速上行，目前均线虽然多头排列，但发散程度较低，预示行情仍有机会上行。布林带扩口向 上，预示多头趋势尚未结束。CCI指标在超买区间附近拐头向下，或预示价格有机会回落后延续上行。操作上建议逢低布局 多单思路为主。 日内交易策略： 多单：建议4481.0附近尝试做多，止损4460.0，目标4520.0-4560.0附近。 白银（XAGUSD）： 欧盟决定将对俄罗斯的经济制裁延长至2026年7月底，表明西方与俄罗斯之间的博弈将长期化，地缘格局的紧张基底并未消 褪。同时，伊朗在多个城市举行导弹 ...

12月23日：上交易日周一（12月22日）：国际黄金强势反弹攀升收阳，如期突破新高以及趋势线阻力压 制，这暗示后市的看涨空间进一步打开，将迎接看涨至5000美元关口甚至更高的预期位置。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于4340.19美元/盎司，直接先行录得日内低点4337.64美元，之后则持续反弹 回升，欧美盘时段虽有回撤，但只有10美金左右，幅度较小，趋势仍未上行，且一路延续到盘尾收盘， 动力持稳，在触及日内高点4449.01美元，最终收于4443.55美元，日振幅111.37美元，收涨103.36美元， 涨幅2.38%。 影响上，受到美国总统特朗普上周宣布"封锁"所有进出委内瑞拉的受制裁油轮，加剧了市场紧张情绪， 避险需求激增。以及市场传言特朗普可能在下周提名新的美联储主席，并预期继任者可能更倾向于降 息，再加上美元走弱大幅回落收复前几日涨幅等等，共同推动金价反弹攀升走强。 展望今日周二（12月23日）：国际黄金开盘多头继续走强，延续昨日反弹动力，其突破阻力压制后导致 的顺势跟进买盘继续推进，以及美元指数开盘的继续走低，也对其产生利好，整体来看，美元指数走势 再度转空，周图及月图的看空预期再度加大，故此将会继续 ...

12月23日早盘，伦敦现货黄金再创新高，首次站上4480美元/盎司关口，盘中最高触及 4486.684美元/盎司。国内沪金期货主力连续合约也持续拉升，突破1000元/克整数关 口，盘中最高报1016.86元/克，日内涨幅超2%。 国内金饰方面，周生生足金饰品标价1403元/克，较前一日1367元/克的价格上涨36元/ 克；老庙黄金足金饰品标价1402元/克，较前一日1367元/克的价格上涨35元/克。 另据金融时报，Wind数据显示，自2023年起，现货黄金便开启持续上涨态势。截至2025 年12月23日，现货黄金年内涨幅已超70%。 展望2026年， 世界黄金协会美洲CE0兼全球研究负责人 安凯认为，黄金市场将进入多重 力量交织、动态平衡的新阶段。一方面，地缘经济不确定性依然高企，美元或将延续弱势， 投资者和央行的结构性需求有望持续为金价提供支撑。另一方面，全球经济复苏的可能性、 利率周期的变化以及美元阶段性反弹等因素，也可能对黄金价格形成一定压力。 需要注意的是，黄金价格波动受多重因素影响，投资过程中必然伴随着相应风险。投资者应 充分认识黄金市场的波动性特征，制定科学合理的投资策略，避免盲目跟风操作，确保 ...

Market Overview - The three major indices in the market experienced slight gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.07%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.27%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.41% as of the close on December 23. The total trading volume reached approximately 1.9 billion yuan, showing a slight increase compared to the previous day, although over 3,800 stocks declined [1] Key Factors Influencing Market Performance - The performance of micro-cap stocks has been underwhelming, particularly following a significant drop on December 22, with the number of rising stocks in the market falling below 1,500. This indicates a concentration of market activity in large-cap stocks [1] - Year-end liquidity tends to favor large-cap stocks, with 19 stocks having transaction volumes exceeding 100 billion yuan this year, including Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyisheng, which both surpassed 200 billion yuan in trading volume [1] - The commercial aerospace sector, particularly stocks like Shunhao Co., experienced sudden declines due to the impact of rocket launch variables, affecting market sentiment [1] - ByteDance's plan to invest $23 billion in artificial intelligence is expected to boost related sectors, potentially shifting market focus back to major technology stocks [1] Sector Performance Real Estate Sector - The real estate development sector saw strength in the afternoon, with stocks like Hualian Holdings hitting the daily limit. The national housing and urban-rural development conference emphasized stabilizing the real estate market and promoting the sale of existing homes by 2026 [2] Lithium Battery Sector - The lithium battery sector experienced a strong rally, with stocks such as Tianci Materials and Binhai Energy seeing significant gains. The rise in lithium prices and the demand from new energy vehicles ahead of subsidy reductions contributed to this performance [4] Precious Metals Sector - The precious metals sector has been on an upward trend, with stocks like Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Gold rising. The increase in international gold and silver prices, driven by geopolitical tensions, has heightened investor demand for safe-haven assets [5] Hainan Sector - The Hainan sector continued to perform strongly, with stocks like Haixia Co. and Hainan Development hitting the daily limit. The recent launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port is expected to boost tourism consumption, with significant sales reported during the holiday season [7] Institutional Insights - Huaxi Securities noted the accumulation of positive factors for a potential "spring rally," suggesting a focus on buying on dips. Historical patterns indicate that a reasonable valuation, a loose liquidity environment, and catalysts to boost risk appetite are necessary for such a rally [8] - CITIC Construction emphasized the need for a "volume reversal + sentiment recovery" signal to identify trend opportunities, indicating that the market is currently in a consolidation phase with weak volume [9] - Zhongtai Securities projected that sectors like brokerage and technology may see structural outperformance in the first half of the upcoming year, driven by expectations of global easing and potential liquidity improvements as institutions reposition their portfolios [10]

消息面上，中国有色金属工业协会锂业分会发布11月锂行业运行情况。碳酸锂期货价格逐步抬升，波动 逐步加大。供应端，市场库存逐步加速去化，宁德时代旗下锂矿消息仍形成扰动。需求端，新能源车在 补贴退坡前抢销量，储能表现亮眼。 贵金属再走强 12月23日，A股三大股指早盘高开高走，午后震荡下跌尾盘一度集体翻绿，截止收盘，沪指涨0.07%报 3919.98点，深成指涨0.27%报13368.99点，创业板指涨0.41%报3205.01点，科创50指数涨0.36%报 1340.02点；沪深两市成交额1.9万亿，全市场近3900只个股下跌。 盘面上，海南自贸概念局部强势，海南海药、海南瑞泽、海南发展涨停；锂电池板块走强，天际股份涨 停；液冷服务器午后拉升，英维克、集泰股份涨停；半导体设备概念反复活跃，圣晖集成、亚翔集成2 连板；有色·钨及有机硅概念活跃，翔鹭钨业、章源钨业双双涨停，三孚股份涨停；商业航天概念冲高 回落，顺灏股份、航天机电跌停；卫星互联网板块下挫，华体科技、中国卫通等多股跌停；旅游酒店板 块走低，曲江文旅跌停；教育板块持续走低，中国高科跌停；今日三只新股均触发盘中二次临停，N纳 百川收涨408%，N锡华收涨2 ...

Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, due to factors such as the year - end consumption peak season, the Fed's loose monetary policy, and the improvement of the global growth outlook, the precious metals sector, especially industrial precious metals, will continue to perform strongly. Investors are advised to take a long - biased approach in precious metals trading, and short - hedgers should appropriately reduce their position sizes. Attention should be paid to the situations in Venezuela and the Russia - Ukraine conflict, as well as the US third - quarter GDP data this week [4]. - In the medium - term (2026), the accelerating restructuring of the global political and economic system and abundant monetary liquidity will support the continued strong performance of gold prices. However, Trump 2.0's new policies and the decrease in the intensity of the China - US game will restrain the upward momentum of gold prices. London gold is expected to rise to the range of $4800 - 5000 per ounce. With the improvement of the global economic growth outlook, silver, which has stronger industrial attributes and higher volatility, will gain greater upward momentum. London silver is expected to rise to $73.5 - 77.5 per ounce, and the London gold - silver ratio is expected to drop to around 65. Platinum's substitution for gold and silver in consumption and investment demand will continue, with London platinum expected to rise to $2000 - 2100 per ounce, and the London gold - platinum ratio expected to drop to around 2.4. Palladium will basically follow the trend of gold, with an annual increase target of $1620 - 1700 per ounce. Investors are advised to maintain a long - biased approach, short - hedgers should reduce the hedging ratio, and conservative investors can consider the arbitrage opportunity of long silver and platinum and short gold [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook Intraday Market - Geopolitical risks, such as the increased US military operations in the offshore area of Venezuela over the weekend, have pushed up precious metal prices and international oil prices. The market is also concerned about the potential impact of the new nominee for the Fed Chair. On Monday, the precious metals sector continued to perform strongly, and London gold reached a new high after two months of sideways adjustment [4]. - Domestic precious metals showed significant increases. The intraday increase of the Shanghai Gold Index was 2.10%, the Shanghai Silver Index was 5.42%, the Guangzhou Platinum Index was 6.52%, and the Guangzhou Palladium Index was 5.87% [5]. Medium - term Market - Forecasts for 2026: London gold to $4800 - 5000 per ounce; London silver to $73.5 - 77.5 per ounce with a gold - silver ratio of around 65; London platinum to $2000 - 2100 per ounce with a gold - platinum ratio of around 2.4; London palladium to $1620 - 1700 per ounce [5]. - Trading strategies: Long - biased approach for investors, reducing the hedging ratio for short - hedgers, and considering the arbitrage opportunity of long silver and platinum and short gold for conservative investors [5]. 2. Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - Regarding the Fed's stance, different officials have different views. New York Fed President Williams believes there is no urgent need to cut interest rates again, Fed Governor Milan advocates for a rate cut, Cleveland Fed President Hamark thinks there is no need to adjust interest rates in the next few months, and White House economic advisor and Fed Chair candidate Hassett agrees with Trump's view that inflation is very low [17]. - US military actions near Venezuela: The US Coast Guard is pursuing an oil tanker in international waters near Venezuela. Trump still believes there is a possibility of war with Venezuela, but the White House claims that US citizens don't need to worry about oil price increases [17]. - China's trade data: In November, China's rare - earth magnet exports significantly rebounded, reaching a 10 - month high. Exports to Japan reached a record high, and those to the EU were the second - highest on record, while exports to the US declined. China's soybean imports in November reached the highest level in the same period in four years, with imports from Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay hitting record highs in the same period, but there was zero import of US soybeans for the third consecutive month, setting a record for the longest period of zero imports [18].

Group 1 - The market has shown a five-day upward trend, but the overall market sentiment remains average, with only a few sectors like photolithography, precious metals, and energy metals performing well [1] - The market is characterized by a divergence where the index is stable, but most individual stocks are not experiencing significant gains [1][2] - The current market environment requires careful selection of investment directions, as choosing the wrong sectors can lead to losses [3] Group 2 - The index is expected to experience fluctuations, with a stable outlook for the first half of the week but potential declines in the latter half [4] - The focus for investment should be on sectors that are trending differently from the index, particularly in the non-ferrous metals segment, including precious and energy metals, which have shown a consistent upward trend [4][5] - For individual stocks, it is advised to select those that align with the index's direction when the market is favorable, and to choose contrary directions when the market is unfavorable [7]