转自：智通财经 【9月以来券商密集调研超880家公司】智通财经10月13日电，数据显示，9月以来，券商合计调研了超 880家上市公司，主要集中在机械设备、电子、医药生物、电力设备、基础化工、计算机等行业。值得 一提的是，国庆中秋假期后短短数日，机构就调研了39家上市公司，主要集中在机械设备、电力设备、 基础化工、汽车等行业。其中，有7家公司接受不少于10家机构调研，包括容百科技、巨力索具、四方 达、广脉科技、阿尔特、北汽蓝谷和崧盛股份等。10月9日，商务部会同海关总署发布关于对超硬材 料、稀土设备和原辅料、钬等5种中重稀土、锂电池和人造石墨负极材料相关物项实施出口管制措施的 公告，将于11月8日正式实施。随后，多家相关上市公司举办投资者交流会，机构火速调研出口管制新 政带来的影响。（证券时报） ...

Group 1 - Since September, over 880 listed companies have been surveyed by brokerages, with a focus on industries such as machinery, electronics, and biomedicine [1][2] - The machinery sector has attracted significant attention, with 136 companies surveyed; notable mentions include Zhongkong Technology and Haimuxing, which are focused on industrial applications and solid-state battery developments respectively [2] - The electronics sector remains popular, with 109 companies surveyed; companies like Lanke Technology and Juguang Technology have seen stock price increases of over 120% this year [2] Group 2 - After the National Day holiday, 39 companies were surveyed, primarily in machinery, power equipment, and basic chemicals; companies like Rongbai Technology and Juli Sockets received attention from multiple institutions [3][4] - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs announced export control measures on certain materials, effective November 8, prompting rapid investor interest in affected companies [3] - Rongbai Technology hosted 161 institutional investors, expressing support for the new export control policies, stating that their main products remain unaffected [3] Group 3 - Fourda, specializing in superhard materials, also received attention from over 20 institutions, indicating that domestic restrictions on micro-powder could positively impact domestic diamond composite manufacturers [4] - Analysts maintain confidence in the A-share market despite recent global asset volatility, suggesting that company earnings are expected to improve, providing new market momentum [5][6] - Short-term market fluctuations are anticipated, but the long-term outlook for A-shares remains bullish, supported by improving company quality and increasing dividends and buybacks [6]

■私募新观察 私募最新调研路径曝光 科技与医药仍是"心头好" ◎记者 马嘉悦 私募四季度的布局思路，可在9月调研路径中窥得端倪。私募排排网最新统计数据显示，9月超900家私 募参与A股上市公司调研活动，合计调研近2800次。从行业分布来看，电子、机械设备、医药生物、电 力设备等板块备受青睐，接受私募调研的频次居前。在业内人士看来，随着大量海外资金和居民财富重 新配置，稳增长政策持续发力，中国权益资产的基本面、资金面和趋势上都有支撑，结构性行情有望持 续演绎，尤其是代表中国经济转型方向的科技、医药板块，以及受益于"反内卷"政策的工程机械、化工 行业龙头股，值得重点关注。 9月以来，私募调研保持较高积极性。 私募排排网统计数据显示，9月共有979家私募证券投资基金管理人参与A股公司调研活动，覆盖30个申 万一级行业的529家公司，合计调研频次达2789次。其中，9月共有41家百亿级私募参与A股公司调研， 覆盖27个申万一级行业的189家公司，合计调研频次达318次。 具体来看，创新型生物制药龙头企业——迈威生物备受私募关注，9月获得了88家私募调研，其中不乏 淡水泉、高毅资产、和谐汇一资产等百亿级私募身影。在对迈 ...

Core Insights - The overseas markets experienced more declines than gains in the past week (October 6-10, 2025), with the Nikkei 225 leading the mainstream indices with a rise of 5.07% [2][8] - In the A-share market, core indices showed mixed performance with moderate valuation fluctuations, where the CSI 500 fell by 0.19% and the CSI 100 led the decline with a drop of 0.7% [2][23] - The valuation of large-cap value stocks is relatively superior in the short to medium term, with their rolling percentile averages for PE, PB, and PS at 53.7% and 76.7% for 1-year and 3-year periods respectively [2][24] Global Market Valuation Tracking - The global equity markets saw a slight contraction in valuations, with the NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, and Hang Seng Tech Index PE dropping by more than 1x [2][8] - The SENSEX 30 is currently at a relatively low valuation percentile, while the Hang Seng Tech Index's rolling 3-year PE has fallen below the 60% percentile [2][8] A-share Market Valuation Tracking - The A-share core indices showed mixed results with moderate valuation changes, where the CSI 500 outperformed with a decline of only 0.19% [23] - The large-cap value stocks have a significant advantage over growth stocks, with the mid-cap value index rising by 2.76% and its valuation increasing by over 0.4x [2][23] Industry Valuation - There is significant differentiation among primary industries, with upstream cyclical and support services generally rising, while TMT and power equipment sectors, which previously had strong profit margins, saw overall declines [2][46] - The valuation contraction in sectors such as power equipment, electronics, computing, and media exceeded 1x, while steel and non-ferrous metals experienced expansion exceeding 1x [2][46] Valuation Comparisons - The essential consumer sector shows slightly superior valuation attractiveness, particularly in food and beverage, and agriculture, with their 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year valuation averages at 36.06%, 19.66%, and 11.81% respectively [2][24] - Emerging industries displayed notable differentiation, with nuclear power stocks rising over 5%, while the digital economy sector performed poorly in the past week [2][46]

金融工程 证 券 研 究 报 告 市场形态周报（20251009-20251010） 本周指数普遍下跌 本周市场回顾与最新信号 从本周的指数表现来看，本周指数普遍下跌，其中沪深 300 下跌 0.51%，中证 500 下跌 0.19%，中证 1000 下跌 0.54%。 当前，上证 50 的隐含波动率为 16.15%，相对于上周下跌了 1.54%。上证 500 的隐含波动率为 19.98%，相对于上周下跌了 5.13%。中证 1000 的隐含波动率 为 20.93%，相对于上周下跌了 4.16%。沪深 300 的隐含波动率为 16.61%，相 对于上周下跌了 1.67%。 我们统计了最近信号的次数和胜率。2025 年 9 月 19 日到 2025 年 9 月 25 日正 面信号共出现了 3059 次，未来高点平均胜率为 46.09%，负面信号出现 3051 次，未来低点平均胜率为 52.79%。 从宽基择时策略来看，创业板指、上证 50、中证 800、万得微盘股指数、中证 500、沪深 300、恒生金融类、恒生香港 35、恒生可持续发展企业指数、恒生 等权重、恒生指数、恒生中国企业指数出现看多信号，其余宽基信 ...

Core Conclusions - The overall valuation of A-shares has expanded this week, with the non-ferrous metals industry continuing to lead the market [1] - During the National Day holiday, favorable factors for the non-ferrous industry have emerged, contributing to its ongoing leadership [1] - The current overall PB (LF) of the non-ferrous metals industry is at the historical 87.8 percentile, with specific sectors like copper, aluminum, lithium, and gold at 92.1%, 96.3%, 40.7%, and 83.6% percentiles respectively, indicating greater valuation upside potential for lithium [1] A-share Valuation Overview - The overall PE (TTM) of A-shares increased from 22.36 times last week to 22.78 times this week, while PB (LF) rose from 2.17 times to 2.21 times [10] - The PE (TTM) of the ChiNext board increased from 81.61 times to 82.22 times, while its PB (LF) remained stable at 4.88 times [19] - The PE (TTM) of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board rose from 272.77 times to 276.66 times, with PB (LF) increasing from 6.72 times to 6.81 times [21] Industry Valuation Levels - From a static PE (TTM) perspective, major industries such as consumer discretionary, midstream manufacturing, and cyclical sectors have absolute and relative valuations above historical medians, with consumer discretionary and midstream manufacturing exceeding the 90th percentile [27] - In terms of PB (LF), TMT, midstream manufacturing, and consumer discretionary also show absolute and relative valuations above historical medians, while financial services and consumer staples are below historical medians [29] - The overall valuation of key companies in A-shares based on dynamic PE increased from 15.17 times to 15.19 times this week [14] Relative Valuation Expansion - The relative PE (TTM) for computing infrastructure, excluding operators and resource categories, decreased from 5.80 times to 5.66 times, while relative PB (LF) fell from 5.69 times to 5.54 times [23] - The current comparison of odds (PB historical percentiles) and win rates (ROE historical percentiles) indicates that industries like oil and petrochemicals, as well as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, exhibit characteristics of low valuation and high profitability [2] ERP and Equity-Debt Yield Spread - The non-financial ERP of A-shares decreased from 0.80% to 0.76%, while the equity-debt yield spread fell from -0.19% to -0.24% [60] - The dynamic ERP of key non-financial companies in A-shares increased from 2.76% to 2.77% this week [64]

Market Overview - On the second trading day of October, major A-share indices declined, with growth indices like the ChiNext and STAR Market experiencing significant pullbacks, while dividend sectors rose against the trend [1] - The trading volume remained above 2.5 trillion, indicating active market participation despite a slight decrease in transaction volume [2] Performance of Indices - In the first three quarters of 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 15.84%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 29.88%, the CSI 300 Index by 17.94%, and the ChiNext Index by 51.20% [2] - The performance of various sectors showed a majority of gains, with non-ferrous metals leading at 67.52%, followed by communications at 62.61%, and electronics at 53.51% [2] ETF Performance - Several ETFs, including construction materials and high-dividend ETFs, saw gains exceeding 2%, while battery and integrated circuit ETFs dropped over 7% [1] - In the first three quarters, Hong Kong's innovative drug ETFs doubled, while energy and coal ETFs faced significant declines [2] Earnings Forecasts - As of October 10, 32 companies had released earnings forecasts, with 90.63% indicating positive growth, particularly in sectors like basic chemicals, steel, and non-ferrous metals [5] - The expected doubling of earnings is concentrated in the main board, ChiNext, and STAR Market, with 6, 2, and 1 stocks respectively [5] Investment Themes - Key investment themes include sectors benefiting from external interest rate cuts and emerging demand, such as non-ferrous metals and stable price sectors like steel and coal [5] - The focus on AI and related infrastructure is emphasized as a core investment direction, with applications in robotics, gaming, and military sectors also highlighted [6] Historical Context - Historically, the Shanghai Composite Index has shown mixed performance in October, with a 55% chance of monthly gains over the past 20 years, but with an average increase of only about 0.29% [4] - The Shenzhen Component Index has a 70% win rate, while the ChiNext Index has a 60% win rate, indicating a generally favorable outlook for these indices in October [3]

- The report introduces a quantitative model named "250-day new high distance" to track market trends and identify hot spots. The model is based on momentum and trend-following strategies, emphasizing stocks that consistently hit new highs. The formula for calculating the 250-day new high distance is: $ 250\text{-day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{Close_t}{ts\_max(Close, 250)} $ where $ Close_t $ represents the latest closing price, and $ ts\_max(Close, 250) $ is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days. If the latest closing price hits a new high, the distance equals 0; otherwise, it reflects the percentage drop from the peak [11][19][27] - The report evaluates the model positively, citing its ability to capture market leaders and trends effectively. It references studies by George (2004), William O'Neil, and Mark Minervini, which highlight the importance of tracking stocks near their 52-week highs for superior returns [11][18][21] - The model's backtesting results show that as of October 10, 2025, major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and others have respective 250-day new high distances of 0.94%, 2.70%, 1.97%, 2.00%, 1.49%, 2.61%, 4.55%, and 5.61%. Industry indices like power utilities, steel, and basic chemicals are closer to their 250-day highs, while sectors like food and beverage, banking, and transportation are farther away [12][13][31] - A factor named "Stable New High Stocks" is constructed to identify stocks with smooth price paths and consistent momentum. The factor considers analyst attention (minimum 5 buy/hold ratings in the past 3 months), relative price strength (top 20% in 250-day returns), price path smoothness (measured by price displacement ratio), and trend continuation (average 250-day new high distance over the past 120 days and past 5 days). The top 50 stocks meeting these criteria are selected [25][27][28] - The factor is positively evaluated for its focus on smooth momentum and its ability to identify stocks with strong and consistent performance. It references studies by Turan G Bali (2011) and Da Gurun (2012), which highlight the advantages of smooth price paths in momentum strategies [25][27][28] - Backtesting results for the "Stable New High Stocks" factor show that 50 stocks were selected, with the highest representation in cyclical and technology sectors. Examples include Industrial Internet, Xiangnong Chip, and Xingye Yinxi. The cyclical sector is dominated by basic chemicals, while the technology sector is led by electronics [28][30][32]

Market Overview - The overall valuation of the market has increased, with the Wind All A Index leading the rise, up by 2.9 percentage points in PE-TTM historical percentile[5] - The PB-LF historical percentile also saw an increase across indices, with the CSI 300 leading at a rise of 4.4 percentage points[5] Industry Insights - In the automotive sector, PE valuation increased by 1.1 percentage points, leading among industries[6] - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a significant rise in PB valuation, up by 14.0 percentage points, indicating strong performance[6] Trading Activity - Trading activity has increased, with the turnover rate rising by 26.0% for the SSE 50 index, while total transaction volume decreased by 1.25%[6] - As of September 30, 2025, the margin trading balance was 2.39 trillion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 1.25% compared to September 26, 2025[6] Company Performance - The company reported a revenue growth from 678,800 yuan in 2022 to 1,908,800 yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 67.7%[12] - The gross profit margin improved significantly from 19.9% in 2022 to 32.7% in 2024, maintaining at 32.4% in the first half of 2025[12] Risk Factors - Risks include uncertainties in overseas economic conditions and geopolitical factors that may impact market stability[8] - Potential risks in the pharmaceutical sector include uncertainties in original IP incubation and fluctuations in consumer demand[13]

上纬新材(688585.SH)今日晚间公告称，公司股票将于10月13日复牌。 此前，公司因股票交易异常波动停牌核查。公司已关注到近期市场存在部分媒体关于上纬新材与实际控制人邓泰华及其控制的智元创新(上海)科技有限公 司相关资产进行整合的讨论与报道。 公司发函向公司收购人暨控股股东上海智元恒岳科技合伙企业(有限合伙)及实际控制人邓泰华核实，截至目前，收购方智元恒岳及其一致行动人上海致远 新创科技设备合伙企业(有限合伙)不存在在未来12个月内对上市公司及其子公司的资产和业务进行出售、合并、与他人合资或合作的明确计划，或上市公 司拟购买或置换资产的明确重组计划。截至目前，未来36个月内，智元创新不存在通过上市公司借壳上市的计划或安排。 公告还称，公司股票价格涨幅显著高于同期相关指数涨幅。2025年7月9日至2025年9月25日期间，公司股票价格累计涨幅上涨1,597.94%，涨幅显著高于科 创综指、科创50、上证综指等相关指数涨幅。值得注意的是，截至9月25日收盘，若以年内最大涨幅统计，上纬新材涨幅超20倍。 | 证券代 | 证券简称 | 停复牌 | 停牌起 | 停牌 | 停牌终止日 | 复牌日 | | --- | ...