【导读】A股上演"奇迹日"，三大指数集体翻红；化工、电力板块盘中拉升，医药股活跃；白酒股集体回调 来看详情—— 基础化工板块走强 电力设备盘中拉升 2月6日上午，基础化工板块率先走强，氟化工、磷化工、化学纤维等方向集体大涨。 个股方面，金牛化工（600722）直线拉涨停，沧州大化（600230）、百合花（603823）、闰土股份（002440）等多股纷纷涨停，江天化学 （300927）、双乐股份（301036）涨超10%。 | 序号 代码 | | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 300927 | 江天化学 | 37.62 | 4.77 | 14.52% | | 2 | 301036 | 双乐股份 | 37.33 | 3.72 | 11.07% | | 3 | 600722 | 金牛化工 | 8.64 | 0.79 | 10.06% | | 4 | 600230 | 沧州大化 | 21.63 | 1.97 | 10.02% | | 5 | 603823 | 百合花 | 18.48 | 1.68 | 10.00% ...

Group 1 - The A-share market opened lower but rebounded, with the chemical sector performing well, highlighted by Wanhua Chemical rising over 4% and Duofuduo increasing by 8% [1] - The supply side of the industry is tightening, with European companies reducing or shutting down overseas chemical production capacity. Domestic policies are promoting anti-involution, with the "Petrochemical Industry Stabilization and Growth Work Plan" strictly controlling new capacity and eliminating outdated capacity, which is expected to enhance corporate profitability [1] - January PMI data fell below the growth line, but price-related indicators showed improvement, including raw material purchase prices rising to 56, the highest in two years, and the producer price index (PPI) showing positive signals with a continuous narrowing of the year-on-year decline since July 2025, indicating that pressure on industrial product prices is being released [1] Group 2 - Chemical prices showed significant recovery in January, with liquid chlorine, lithium hydroxide, acetonitrile, lithium carbonate, and butadiene performing well, suggesting that the profitability of chemical companies is likely to be restored [1] - The Jia Shi Chemical ETF (159129) tracks the CSI sub-sector chemical industry theme index, covering various high-growth sectors such as basic chemicals, fertilizers, chemical agriculture, chemical fibers, and new energy materials. The top ten weighted stocks, including Wanhua Chemical, Salt Lake Co., Cangge Mining, and Rongsheng Petrochemical, are leaders in their respective sub-sectors, balancing the benefits of industry anti-involution and resource material growth opportunities [1] - The ETF has a combined management and custody fee rate of 0.2% per year, which is among the lowest in its category, providing a clear long-term cost advantage and offering off-market connection funds to meet different investor trading habits [2]

Group 1 - The A-share market showed mixed performance on February 6, with the China Securities Petrochemical Industry Index opening low and rising over 2.6% during the day, led by stocks such as Zhejiang Longsheng, Huafeng Chemical, and Hengyi Petrochemical [1] - The largest ETF tracking the index, Petrochemical ETF (159731), saw a net inflow of over 1.437 billion yuan in the last 20 trading days, with the latest share count reaching 1.713 billion and total assets at 1.697 billion yuan [1] - GF Securities noted that the chemical industry typically follows a five-year cyclical pattern, transitioning through phases of "profit upturn - capacity expansion - profit bottoming - capacity clearance/demand expectation improvement" [1] Group 2 - The report highlights a positive outlook for the chemical sector in the context of the 14th Five-Year Plan, driven by factors such as negative capital expenditure growth, anti-involution, overseas interest rate cuts, and domestic demand expansion [1] - The ongoing global technological revolution is accelerating, presenting new opportunities for material transformation within the chemical industry [1] - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) and its linked funds closely track the China Securities Petrochemical Industry Index, with the basic chemical industry accounting for 60.02% and the oil and petrochemical industry for 32.43% of the index [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the positive performance of the petrochemical ETF (159731), which has seen a 0.71% increase, with significant inflows of 1.437 billion yuan over the past 20 trading days, bringing its total shares to 1.713 billion and total scale to 1.697 billion yuan [1][2] - The supply-demand dynamics of phosphate rock in China are tightening due to declining grades and increasing extraction costs, while demand from new fields such as lithium iron phosphate continues to grow, indicating a long-term bullish outlook for phosphate prices [1] - According to Guotai Junan Securities, phosphate rock is essential for the phosphate chemical industry, primarily driven by agricultural products, and its scarcity is becoming more pronounced with the expansion of new applications in the energy sector [1] Group 2 - The petrochemical ETF (159731) and its linked funds closely track the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index, with the basic chemical industry accounting for 60.02% and the oil and petrochemical industry for 32.43%, allowing for profit sharing from downstream chemical products [2] - The industry narrative is improving due to structural adjustments in supply and demand, suggesting a positive long-term outlook for the chemical sector [2]

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 -8% -1% 6% 14% 21% 28% 35% 42% 2025.02 2025.06 2025.10 2026.02 上证指数 深证成指 | 国内市场表现 | 指数名称 | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅(%) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 4,075.92 | -0.64 | 深证成指 | 13,952.71 | -1.44 | | | | 创业板指 | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | 沪深 | 300 | 4,670.42 | -0.60 | | | 上证 | 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | 科创 | 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 | 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | 中证 | 100 | 4,558.24 | -0.73 | | 中证 | 500 | 8,146.11 | -1. ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall performance outlook for Shenzhen-listed companies in 2025 is positive, with a significant portion of companies showing improved profitability and growth across various industries [1][2]. Group 1: Overall Performance - Out of 2886 companies in Shenzhen, 1714 have disclosed their 2025 performance forecasts, representing 59.39% of the total companies and 48.48% of the market capitalization [1]. - 987 companies expect performance improvement, accounting for 57.58%, with 430 companies projecting continuous profitability and year-on-year growth, while 227 companies are expected to turn losses into profits [2]. Group 2: Leading Companies - Among the top 100 companies by market capitalization in Shenzhen, 40 have disclosed their 2025 performance, all of which are expected to be profitable, with a total projected net profit of 2056.27 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 66.51% [3]. - In the newly listed companies under the registration system, 307 out of 629 have disclosed their 2025 performance, with a total expected net profit of 196.04 billion, a year-on-year growth of 77.11% [3]. Group 3: Industry Performance - In the 28 non-financial and non-real estate industries, 18 are expected to report positive net profits, representing approximately 64% [4]. - The machinery and basic chemical industries are projected to achieve net profits of 84.85 billion and 123.51 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 200.07% and 284.56% [5]. - The computer, communication, and electronics sectors are expected to generate a combined net profit of 760.33 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 155.32% [5].

Core Viewpoint - The report analyzes the current status of China's manufacturing industry going abroad, identifies future leading industries for overseas expansion, and discusses the impact of RMB appreciation on exports and investments [4]. Group 1: Current Trends in Overseas Expansion - The wave of overseas expansion is still on the rise, with a slight increase in China's foreign direct investment expected by 2025, and more small and medium-sized enterprises joining the trend. Policies are aimed at promoting globalization and enhancing external demand while facilitating supply-side reforms [5]. Group 2: Industries with Significant Overseas Revenue Growth - In terms of primary industries, light manufacturing and home appliances have a high proportion of overseas revenue. The electronic and machinery supply chains, as well as service trade, have seen rapid year-on-year growth in overseas revenue. Among secondary industries, electronics and machinery-related sectors show a high overseas revenue share, with notable improvements in competitiveness for the electronic communication, finance, and gaming industries. Industries with high foreign exposure, such as light manufacturing and automotive, have shown relatively better stock performance, and private enterprises are increasingly active in overseas markets, potentially becoming the main contributors to overseas revenue during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [6]. Group 3: High Overseas Gross Margin as a Driving Force - Listed companies exhibit high overseas gross margins due to strong overseas demand, making exports a major contributor to economic growth. Companies are accelerating capacity expansion abroad, leading to increased product value. In the first half of 2025, industries such as computers, pharmaceuticals, beauty care, and machinery equipment reported high overseas gross margins. The difference in gross margins between domestic and overseas operations correlates with revenue structure, with industries like automotive, transportation, and power equipment showing higher overseas gross margins than domestic ones. The average overseas revenue gross margin increased by 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [7]. Group 4: Industry-Specific Overseas Expansion Progress - The report assesses investment trends in different regions such as ASEAN, the United States, and Latin America through forward-looking signals (announcements of foreign investments by listed companies) and mid-term validations (revenue from overseas subsidiaries). Early-stage industries for overseas expansion include machinery equipment, basic chemicals, power equipment/home appliances, food and beverages, and computers. Accelerated expansion industries include electronics, light manufacturing, and automotive [8]. Group 5: Impact of RMB Appreciation on Exports and Investments - Going abroad does not necessarily lead to a decline in export growth. It can stimulate the growth of domestic capital goods and intermediate goods exports, leading to structural adjustments in exports. It also facilitates market expansion for localized production overseas. Innovation is identified as the primary driver for strong export momentum, helping to avoid the middle-income trap. The structural aspects of going abroad are beneficial for upstream equipment investments. Although the capacity expansion of overseas subsidiaries may suppress domestic investment willingness in corresponding sectors, the exploration of overseas markets is favorable for upstream supporting enterprises' capacity expansion and R&D investments [9].

龙头公司表现亮眼 深市市值排名前百公司中，40家公司预披露2025年经营业绩且全部预盈，预计合计实现净利润2056.27 亿元，同比增长66.51%。36家公司预计净利润增长，其中29家公司预计净利润增长50%以上。 深市629家注册制下新上市公司中，共307家公司预披露2025年经营业绩，预计合计实现净利润196.04亿 元，同比增长77.11%。其中，183家公司预计盈利，占预披露业绩注册制公司的59.61%，预盈比重高于 深市整体7个百分点。 从1714家公司预披露总体情况看，整体业绩向好，呈现出多方面改善的积极态势。 987家公司预计业绩提升或改善，占比57.58%，其中430家公司连续盈利且同比增长，227家公司扭亏为 盈，330家公司减亏。 以公司预披露的净利润上限和下限平均值进行计算，预披露业绩公司合计实现净利润820.09亿元，较上 年同比增加1556.70亿元，整体盈利能力修复明显。 随着业绩预告落下帷幕，深市上市公司2025年经营业绩概况浮出水面。深市2886家公司中，1714家预披 露2025年经营业绩，占深市公司家数的59.39%，市值占比48.48%。其中近六成公司业绩向好，龙头公 ...

● 本报记者 黄灵灵 随着业绩预告落下帷幕，深市上市公司2025年经营业绩概况浮出水面。深市2886家公司中，1714家预披 露2025年经营业绩，占深市公司家数的59.39%，市值占比48.48%。其中近六成公司业绩向好，龙头公 司表现亮眼，多行业稳步增长，整体传递出积极的经营信号。 预计亏损的公司家数为124家，考虑到规则要求预亏公司需在1月底前发布业绩预告，可合理推断深市注 册制公司的预亏比例或低于两成。国际复材、回盛生物等32家公司预计在2025年实现扭亏。 3C相关行业增长势头强劲 深市除金融、房地产业以外的28个实体行业中18个行业预计净利润为正，占比约64%。28个实体行业 中，电子、通信等7个行业连续两年盈利，有色金属、计算机、传媒、纺织服饰4个行业实现扭亏。 在产业转型升级、中国制造向中国智造不断迈进的大背景下，工业领域深市公司整体业绩企稳向好。 深市机械设备、基础化工行业公司预计净利润分别为84.85亿元、123.51亿元，分别同比增长200.07%、 284.56%。下游产业需求传导叠加贵金属价格上涨，有色金属行业预计2025年净利润328.30亿元，同比 实现扭亏。 受AI算力和应用需 ...

◎记者 黎灵希 另据统计数据，预计亏损的深市公司家数为124家，考虑到规则要求预亏公司需在1月底前发布业绩预 告，可合理推断深市注册制公司的预亏比例或低于两成。对比2024年亏损公司名单发现，国际复材、回 盛生物等32家公司预计在2025年实现扭亏。 重点行业表现亮眼 数据显示，除金融、房地产业外，深市的28个实体行业中18个行业预计净利润为正，占比64%。28个实 体行业中，电子、通信等7个行业连续两年盈利且2025年增速超50%，有色金属、计算机、传媒、纺织 服饰等4个行业实现扭亏。 具体来看，在产业转型升级、"中国制造"向"中国智造"不断迈进的大背景下，工业领域深市公司整体业 绩企稳向好。深市机械设备、基础化工行业公司预计净利润分别为84.85亿元、123.51亿元，分别同比增 长200.07%、284.56%；电力设备、国防军工行业公司预计净利润分别较2024年减亏76.13%、91.26%。 下游产业需求传导叠加贵金属价格上涨，有色金属行业预计净利润328.30亿元，同比实现扭亏。 受AI算力和应用需求快速增长、消费电子终端需求复苏等影响，深市计算机、通信、电子行业公司预 计合计实现净利润760.3 ...