智通财经APP获悉，美银发布研究报告指出，中国锂市场正经历深刻变革。从供应端看，政府因《矿产资源法》修订等，整治锂云母矿产能，关停部分 矿山、加强合规管理，推动市场再平衡，锂价有望受支撑;从需求端，电动汽车曾过度追求规模致产能过剩，如今 "反内卷" 行动调整，同时电池储能需 求因可再生能源发展重要性凸显，但其产量与装机量差异影响锂需求。变革中存在锂价上涨推高电动车行业成本等权衡，整体是政府引导资源合理开 发、平衡多方利益的结构性调整，重塑锂市场供需格局 。 几年前，由于矿山供应迅速增加，锂市场陷入过剩。尽管如此，如今自愿性的(中国境外)和强制性的(中国境内)生产管控，正使市场逐渐恢复常态。 迄今为止，中国有关部门已对部分企业采取了整治措施：在关闭宁德时代的JXW锂云母矿后，锂价上涨了 20%。虽然JXW矿的临时关闭缓解了供应过剩 的局面，但锂市场尚未出现短缺，政府仍在调查是否要再关停至少 10 万吨的锂云母产能。 如果这些矿场在 2025 年剩余时间内全部关闭，按照历史关系推算，今年锂的平均价格应有 20,000 美元 / 吨。鉴于今年以来锂的平均价格为 9,100 美元 / 吨，这一目标似乎难以实现。尽管如 ...

证券日报网讯 8月18日晚间，盛新锂能发布公告称，截至本公告披露日，公司本次回购股份方案已实施 完毕，截至目前，公司已通过集中竞价方式回购股份数量27，351，330股，占公司总股本的2.99%。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

证券日报网讯 盐湖股份（000792）8月18日在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司新建碳酸锂项目建 设进展顺利，部分核心装置已完成中交验收，并计划于2025年9月底启动联动试车。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current speculation on mining license issues may be overheated. The market has two logics: one is the "step - by - step" upward chain of "futures rise - capacity release - increased ore consumption - ore price increase" driven by macro - sentiment and supply - side disturbances, which may lead to a temporary shortage of lithium ore and push up the price center of lithium salts; the other is the "negative feedback" cycle of "lithium salt decline - ore price loosening - lithium salt decline again" in the downward price cycle. The cost reduction also drives the downward movement of the price center of lithium carbonate. Overall, the futures market in the second half of the year is expected to rise in the third quarter and fall in the fourth quarter [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Data - **Price and Volatility**: The short - term strong support level of the lithium carbonate main contract is 65,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 42.2% and a current volatility historical percentile (3 - year) of 73.5% [2]. - **Contract Performance**: The closing price, trading volume, and open interest of the lithium carbonate main contract and LC2601 contract all increased. For example, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract rose from 86,900 yuan/ton to 89,240 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2,340 yuan/ton (2.69%) and a weekly increase of 8,240 yuan/ton (10.17%) [9]. - **Month - to - Month Spread**: The LC11 - 12 spread decreased from 320 to 0, a 100% decrease; the LC11 - 01 spread decreased from 480 to 200, a 58% decrease [11]. 3.2 Spot Data - **Lithium Ore**: The average daily prices of various lithium ores, such as lithium mica, lithium spodumene, and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone, all increased. For example, the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2 - 2.5%) rose from 2,100 yuan/ton to 2,185 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 85 yuan/ton (4.05%) and a weekly increase of 310 yuan/ton (16.53%) [15]. - **Carbon/Hydrogen Lithium**: The average daily prices of industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide all increased. For example, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose from 80,400 yuan/ton to 82,300 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1,900 yuan/ton (2.36%) and a weekly increase of 10,000 yuan/ton (13.83%) [18]. - **Downstream Products**: The average daily prices of downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and electrolytes also showed varying degrees of increase. For example, the average price of power - type lithium iron phosphate rose from 35,655 yuan/ton to 36,170 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 515 yuan/ton (1.44%) [23]. 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis**: The basis of lithium carbonate main contract and brand basis of different companies are provided. For example, the brand basis of Tianqi Lithium Industry (LI2CO3≥99.8%, LC2507) is 400 yuan/ton [26]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts increased from 21,939 to 23,485, an increase of 1,546. The warehouse receipts of some warehouses increased, such as Xiangyu Speed Transmission Shanghai, which increased from 1,870 to 2,010 [29][30]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - Production profit, theoretical delivery profit, and import profit of lithium carbonate are presented in the form of charts, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [32]. 3.5 Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high product inventory and risk of impairment, it is recommended to short lithium carbonate futures (20% of inventory) and sell call options (20%) to lock in profits and hedge risks. Buying out - of - the - money put options is also recommended [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with future procurement plans, it is recommended to buy long - term lithium carbonate contracts according to the procurement plan to lock in procurement costs, and sell put options and buy out - of - the - money call options [2].

Group 1 - The company, Shengxin Lithium Energy (002240.SZ), has completed a share buyback program, repurchasing a total of 27.35133 million shares, which represents 2.99% of its total share capital [1] - The highest transaction price during the buyback was 17.74 CNY per share, while the lowest was 15.32 CNY per share [1] - The total amount spent on the share buyback was 445 million CNY, excluding transaction fees [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company is currently in the ramp-up phase of production at its Lijiagou lithium mine, which has been operating well since trial production began [2]. Group 1: Company Operations - The company has successfully debugged and produced qualified battery-grade lithium salt at De'a Lithium by July 2025 [2]. - The company plans to align its production and sales strategy with market conditions to maximize operational efficiency from its integrated resource advantages [2]. - The company is committed to developing its new energy business and will continue to accelerate the construction of existing projects while increasing efforts to acquire new resources [2]. Group 2: Shareholder Value - The company aims to deliver good performance and long-term value to shareholders in response to their support [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The market is worried about the contraction of domestic lithium carbonate supply due to the suspension of the Jianxiaowo lithium mica mine and uncertainties in domestic salt lake supply. The "anti - involution" sentiment continues, and the short - term price of lithium carbonate is expected to be strong. However, high prices will stimulate the release of overseas resources, and the long - term fundamental pattern remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the progress of Jiangxi mines and the continuity of the "anti - involution" sentiment [4][90] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Investment Strategy - Strategy: Short - term operation, be cautious when chasing long positions, and appropriately buy options for protection; Operating range: 70,000 - 100,000 [4][90] - Resource side: There are still concerns about the supply of lithium mica in Jiangxi, the output of spodumene is basically flat, and the import volume of lithium ore has decreased [4][90] - Supply side: Last week, the output of lithium carbonate continued to increase, the import volume of lithium salts decreased, the export volume of lithium salts from Chile increased significantly, and the recycling end was strengthened [4][90] - Demand side: The growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales has slowed down. The production schedules of cathode and cell factories have increased, with inventory accumulation of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials last week. The production schedule of energy - storage batteries has increased slightly, and the energy - storage winning bid scale has decreased [4][90] - Cost side: The prices of spodumene concentrate and lithium mica have risen significantly [4][90] - Inventory: Overall inventory reduction, inventory reduction in smelters, and inventory accumulation in downstream and other sectors [4][90] 3.2 Market Review - Last week, lithium carbonate fluctuated at a high level, with a weekly increase of 15.87%. The trading volume reached 4.63 million lots (+1.86 million), and the open interest reached 401,100 lots (+80,400). The basis was at a discount of 4,200 yuan/ton [6][7] 3.3 Supply - Side Analysis 3.3.1 Lithium Ore - In July, China's spodumene output was 6,500 tons of LCE, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%; lithium mica output was 16,100 tons of LCE, a month - on - month decrease of 4.2% [12] - In June, the import volume of lithium concentrate decreased to 427,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 18.1% [16] - In April, the volume of spodumene shipped from Port Hedland to China decreased to 58,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 49.3% and a year - on - year increase of 13.3% [21] 3.3.2 Lithium Battery Recycling - In August, the expected recycling volume of waste lithium batteries was 23,484 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.4% and a year - on - year increase of 28.9% [26] 3.3.3 Lithium Carbonate - Last week, the output of lithium carbonate was 19,980 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.2% - In June, the import volume of lithium carbonate decreased to 17,698 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.6% - In July, the volume of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China was 13,633 tons, a month - on - month increase of 33.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.5% [32][34] 3.3.4 Lithium Hydroxide - In August, the operating rate of lithium hydroxide was 36%, and the output was 23,820 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 24.3% - In June, the export volume of lithium hydroxide was 6,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 56.1% [42] 3.4 Downstream Demand Analysis 3.4.1 Lithium Iron Phosphate - Last week, the output of lithium iron phosphate was 79,053 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.4% - In July, the operating rate of iron phosphate was 59%, and the output was 252,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10% and a year - on - year increase of 70% [45] 3.4.2 Ternary Materials - Last week, the output of ternary materials was 16,283 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.4% - In June, the import and export volume increased [50] 3.4.3 Ternary Precursors - In August, the operating rate of ternary precursors was 41%, and the output was 76,160 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.1% and a year - on - year increase of 5.4% - In June, the export volume decreased [53] 3.4.4 Manganese - Based and Cobalt - Based Materials - In August, the operating rate of lithium manganate was 33%, and the output was 11,978 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3% and a year - on - year increase of 26% - In August, the operating rate of lithium cobaltate was 61%, and the output was 8,880 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.8% and a year - on - year increase of 11.1% [54] 3.4.5 Electrolyte - In August, the output of electrolyte was 169,680 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.1% and a year - on - year increase of 38.0% - In June, the export volume of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased [61] 3.5 Terminal Demand Analysis 3.5.1 Power Batteries - In July, the output of power batteries was 133.8 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 3.6% and a year - on - year increase of 45.8% - In July, the installed capacity of power batteries was 55.9 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 4.0% and a year - on - year increase of 34.3% [64] 3.5.2 New Energy Vehicles - In July, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.243 million, a month - on - month decrease of 2.0% and a year - on - year increase of 26.3% - In July, the sales of new energy vehicles was 1.262 million, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 27.4% [67] 3.5.3 Energy Storage - In August, the output of energy - storage batteries was 45.15 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 2.2% and a year - on - year increase of 42.9% - In June, the winning bid power scale of energy storage was 4.57 GW, a month - on - month decrease of 11.3% and a year - on - year increase of 15.1%; the winning bid capacity scale was 12.11 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 27.3% and a year - on - year increase of 45.0% [72] 3.5.4 Consumer Electronics - In July, China's smartphone production was 94.32 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 12.9% and a year - on - year increase of 2.1% - In July, China's micro - computer production was 25.52 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 19.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.8% [75] 3.6 Cost Analysis - Lithium ore prices have risen significantly. The price of spodumene concentrate has increased by $163/ton, and the price of lithium mica has increased by 300 yuan/ton [79] 3.7 Inventory Analysis - The total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 162 tons. Structurally, smelters' inventory decreased by 1,306 tons, downstream inventory increased by 124 tons, and other inventory increased by 1,020 tons - Last week, lithium iron phosphate inventory increased by 483 tons, and ternary materials inventory increased by 737 tons [86][87]

目前来看，碳酸锂行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于碳酸锂后市行情将如何运行，相关机构 观点汇总如下： 中金财富期货表示，随着宜春时代采矿停工后，碳酸锂价格走强，并且市场开始预期后端冶炼企业在权 益矿和库存矿使用完毕后，将进入长期停产模式。与此同时，青海地区企业采矿证到期，国家自然资源 部尚未公开续证并新增矿证规模，市场担忧哪怕续证后因为超产问题，四季度存在停产的不确定性，市 场也担忧续证的时间。目前碳酸锂市场不确定性依然较大，预计仍将明显波动。 8月18日，国内期市有色金属板块涨幅居前。其中，碳酸锂期货主力合约开盘报88160.0元/吨，今日盘 中高位震荡运行；截至发稿，碳酸锂主力最高触及90100.0元，下方探低87720.0元，涨幅达5.25%附 近。 新湖期货分析称，现阶段碳酸锂市场交易核心仍在供给端扰动，除枧下窝项目外，市场对国内云母端、 青海盐湖端、以及智利盐湖端均存有一定供应减量预期，预计现阶段锂价已较为充分计价枧下窝项目直 接供需影响量，不确定在于后续矿权扰动继续传导的情况、资金驱动强度以及即将进入旺季下游采购节 奏和补库预期是否会加速，从预期层面而言，仍有一定上行空间，且在此阶段供应端扰 ...

每经AI快讯，有投资者在投资者互动平台提问：请问一里坪盐湖的项目建设进度如何？ （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 赣锋锂业（002460.SZ）8月18日在投资者互动平台表示，青海一里坪盐湖项目为公司持有49%权益的项 目，资源量为165万吨LCE。该项目已形成年产1.5万吨碳酸锂的产能。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report analyzes historical market pullbacks during bull markets and identifies potential risk factors for the current market, emphasizing that while a pullback is not imminent, preparation is necessary for possible future risks [1][8]. Group 1: Historical Pullback Experiences - Liquidity tightening is the primary trigger for pullbacks in past bull markets, with macro liquidity tightening having a more profound impact on valuation and inflation levels [2][9]. - Micro liquidity tightening leads to more controllable pullbacks, often presenting opportunities for positioning [10]. - The report categorizes pullback causes into five main types: macro liquidity tightening, micro liquidity tightening, policy tightening, geopolitical events, and fundamental downturns, with macro liquidity tightening being the most frequent cause [9][11]. Group 2: Potential Future Pullback Triggers - Key macro liquidity factors to monitor include whether the current easing will meet expectations, particularly in light of anticipated U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts [30]. - On the micro liquidity side, attention should be paid to margin account inspections, quantitative trading regulations, IPO lock-up releases, and significant ETF outflows [31]. - Geopolitical events, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict and U.S.-China trade negotiations, are critical areas for monitoring [32]. Group 3: Reiteration of Re-inflation Bull Market View - The current bull market is characterized by financial re-inflation, with the stock market serving as a vehicle for excess liquidity as cash product yields decline [39]. - The transition to the second half of the bull market is expected to focus on real asset re-inflation, with M1 leading PPI by 6-9 months [49]. - The report emphasizes the importance of fund recovery and reallocation effects, suggesting that as funds recover, redemption pressures may increase, but this does not necessarily indicate a long-term negative outlook [52].