廖市无双：本轮上涨的空间、时间几何？20260629 摘要 地缘政治事件初期虽引发市场担忧，但随后市场认识到实际影响有限， 风险偏好反而提升，券商板块领涨，带动市场情绪，与传统利好驱动上 涨的逻辑不同。 本轮上涨中，券商板块带动作用显著，成长指数表现强劲，呈现"金融 搭台，科技唱戏"格局，资金从红利风格转向高贝塔行业，市场风险偏 好提升。 自 2023 年 10 月以来，市场经历 ABC 调整浪，目前处于 X 浪反弹阶段， 潜在目标区间为 3,509 点至 3,550 点，预计本轮上涨行情至少可持续至 2025 年 7 月 11 日。 券商板块反弹空间仍存，预计最高可看至 876 点左右，但并非牛市启动， 而是大幅下跌后的三浪结构反弹，高度将决定大盘高度。 银行板块短期面临调整压力，但中长期上涨趋势未变，受益于市场缺乏 高景气赛道、保险资金配置需求、公募基金新规调整及良好的资本运作 循环。 2025 年 7 月市场风格预计略偏中小盘，成长与价值风格均有机会，金 融、成长、消费板块预计表现靠前，稳定与周期板块可能略显靠后。 2025 年 7 月重点推荐非银、传媒、电子、银行、通信、化工、计算机、 有色、军工、电 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the A-share market outlook for July 2025, highlighting the balance between low-valued blue-chip stocks and reasonably valued growth stocks, particularly in the technology sector [1][3][28]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Trend**: The A-share market is expected to remain in a fluctuating trend for both the short term and July 2025, primarily due to ongoing fundamental pressures [2][27]. - **Driving Factors**: Recent market gains are attributed to the easing of risk events, improved policy expectations, and inflows from institutional investors [4][12]. - **Geopolitical Risks**: The impact of geopolitical events, such as the Israel-Palestine ceasefire, is viewed as temporary, with ongoing uncertainties related to U.S.-China relations and tariff issues [5][6][25]. - **Economic Indicators**: May economic data shows a decline in export growth and negative profit growth for industrial enterprises, indicating potential underperformance in A-share mid-year reports [13][16]. - **Performance Expectations**: The A-share mid-year performance is anticipated to be weaker than previously expected, with significant pressure on corporate earnings [17][24]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Policy Impact**: The financial support policies for consumption have a limited overall effect on profits but provide some benefits to specific consumption sectors [8][10]. - **Seasonal Trends**: Historical data indicates that July typically exhibits a balanced performance with no clear upward or downward trend, contrary to traditional beliefs [19][20]. - **Liquidity Factors**: The liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, which could positively influence the A-share market despite potential external pressures [26][27]. - **Sector Preferences**: The preferred sectors for investment in July 2025 are expected to be growth and financial sectors, with historical trends supporting this allocation [28][29]. Recommendations for Investment - **Focus Areas**: Suggested sectors for investment include military, non-ferrous metals, electric equipment, new energy, transportation, and large financial sectors, along with technology sub-sectors that are undervalued or have seen limited price increases [35]. - **High Growth Sub-sectors**: Sub-sectors with high expected profit growth include aviation, energy metals, military electronics, and software development [34]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and recommendations from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the A-share market outlook for July 2025.

□本报记者王辉 头部私募仓位高企 顺时投资权益投资总监易小斌认为，近期，部分外部因素的积极变化为A股运行提供了有利环境，但起 决定性作用的仍然是内部因素。这些因素包括：市场自2024年10月高点以来的累计调整时间已超8个 月，技术面面临突破；国内政策密集出台，直接刺激了券商、金融科技等板块爆发；市场资金面充裕， 核聚变、稳定币、固态电池等热点不断涌现，有效维系了市场人气。易小斌判断，这些内外部积极因素 的中期延续性较强，有利因素不断积聚，预计将推动行情持续发展。 融智投资基金经理夏风光从宏观周期角度分析称，下半年全球主要经济体货币政策的"潜在共振"是关键 变量，美联储重启降息进程的可能性正在增大，这将为国内货币和财政政策打开空间。夏风光表 示："流动性环境的进一步改善叠加经济回暖，有望进一步推升本轮A股的阶段性趋势行情。" 来自第三方机构私募排排网的最新监测数据显示，截至6月20日，全市场股票私募机构的平均仓位水平 为74.62%，较前一周小幅上升0.37个百分点，这一数值处于今年以来的中等偏高水平。在具体仓位上， 54.31%股票私募机构仓位处于重仓或满仓(仓位大于八成)水平，24.41%股票私募仓位处于中 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that after breaking through key points, the stock market still has room for growth, with a focus on growth sectors rather than indices [1][2] - The reduction in the risk-free interest rate and the shift in expectations for the RMB from depreciation to stability or slight appreciation are significant drivers for the revaluation of Chinese assets [1][2] - The article highlights the importance of macro policies that prioritize investor returns and capital market reforms, which are crucial for changing investors' conservative attitudes towards risks [1][2] Group 2 - Economic policies and innovation support are expected to improve risk appetite and drive growth performance, with new business opportunities emerging in China [2] - The article notes that the financial sector's recent strong performance is influenced by multiple factors, including the ongoing development of stablecoin concepts and favorable domestic policies [6] - Historical analysis shows that financial stock rallies are often driven by liquidity, fundamentals, or policy events, with the sustainability of these drivers determining future market trends [8]

Investment Focus - The report indicates that despite a cautious medium-term outlook, there is potential for a short-term market rebound following recent declines, especially if geopolitical tensions ease [1][10] - The Hang Seng Index experienced a strong rebound, rising 3.2%, with technology stocks showing significant recovery potential after sufficient corrections [1][10] - The report highlights that sectors such as materials, technology, and finance led the gains in the Hong Kong market, while A-shares saw strong performance in technology, materials, and industrials [1][10] Liquidity Analysis - Signs of liquidity disturbances have emerged, with the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) responding quickly to strong-side convertibility triggers by injecting significant amounts of HKD into the market [2][11] - The HKMA's actions in May 2023 included selling nearly HKD 130 billion, which led to a drop in HIBOR to very low levels, impacting the HKD-USD interest rate spread [2][11] - The report notes that as liquidity remains loose, speculative trading has increased, with several low-priced stocks doubling in value within a single day [3][12] Southbound Fund Flows - Southbound fund inflows increased to HKD 28.4 billion amid easing Middle Eastern tensions, although this remains significantly lower than inflows seen earlier in the year [3][13] - Notable purchases included Guotai Junan International, while Alibaba and Tencent experienced moderate outflows, indicating shifting investor sentiment [3][13] - The report identifies that southbound funds primarily flowed into financials, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors, while reducing exposure to communication services and energy [3][13] A-Share Market Dynamics - The brokerage sector's rally led to an increase in margin financing and securities lending balances, indicating renewed investor interest [4][14] - However, macroeconomic uncertainties may limit incremental capital inflows, potentially leading to funding supply pressures if margin financing continues to rise [4][14] - The banking sector experienced a sharp decline after sustained gains, reflecting signs of marginal liquidity weakening in the market [4][14] Market Outlook - The report concludes that while a short-term rebound is likely, the broader oscillation pattern in the market has not ended, with risks in high-flying sectors still not fully released [4][15] - Positive developments in U.S.-China relations and strong earnings expectations in overseas AI infrastructure stocks may support market sentiment in the short term [4][15] - Investors are advised to gradually reduce exposure during the rebound, particularly in sectors that have seen significant recent gains, to prepare for potential volatility [4][15]

Group 1 - The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges are seeking public opinion on adjusting the price fluctuation limit for risk warning stocks on the main board to 10%, aligning it with other stocks [1] - The adjustment aims to enhance market consistency and potentially improve trading dynamics for risk warning stocks [1] Group 2 - Guosheng Securities indicates that the "14th Five-Year Plan" is a year for layout, suggesting that market adjustments present opportunities [2] - The macro environment is characterized by economic resilience, policy stability, and high asset volatility, with expectations of a fluctuating A-share market in the second half of the year [2] - The policy approach is divided into two phases: the first focuses on accelerating existing policy implementation, while the second will assess the need for further fiscal stimulus based on economic conditions [2] Group 3 - Guosheng Securities highlights the advantages of stablecoins in payment scenarios, particularly in cross-border payments, and notes the competitive landscape among different stablecoins [3] - The integration of stablecoins with AI agents and the tokenization of U.S. stocks are seen as significant trends that could enhance global financial market liquidity [3] Group 4 - Dongwu Securities reports that the solid-state battery industry is entering a critical mid-test phase, with rapid advancements in the supply chain supported by national policies [6] - The solid-state battery's core components, particularly sulfide electrolytes, are expected to achieve mass production by 2030, with significant progress in manufacturing processes [6] Group 5 - Investment recommendations include focusing on the battery segment with high barriers to entry, suggesting companies like CATL and BYD, as well as equipment and materials sectors [7] - The solid-state battery market is anticipated to see breakthroughs in both equipment and materials, with ongoing developments in production techniques [6][7] Group 6 - The AI healthcare sector in China is experiencing rapid growth, with significant advancements in technology, commercialization, and policy support [8] - Ant Group's launch of the AI health application "AQ" aims to address healthcare needs and connect users with a vast network of medical professionals [8] - Investment opportunities are identified in AI healthcare companies such as Alibaba Health and WeDoctor [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent reforms by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) to encourage unprofitable companies to go public is a trend that will likely increase the number of IPO applications in the A-share market, leading to positive future prospects for the market [1] - The three major exchanges in China (Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing) have recently updated their IPO acceptance status, with a record number of applications being processed, indicating a robust IPO pipeline [1] - In a recent three-day period, the exchanges received a total of 34 new IPO applications, with the Beijing Stock Exchange accepting 10, Shenzhen 4, and Shanghai 3 [1] Group 2 - Small-cap stocks have shown strong performance while large-cap stocks, particularly in the banking sector, have declined, creating a market balance that allows for opportunities in smaller stocks [3] - The decline in bank stocks is viewed as a correction after previous gains, and while banks offer attractive dividends of 4% to 5%, there is concern about their long-term growth potential [5] - The overall market sentiment improved, with over 60% of stocks rising, and the median change in stock prices was +0.34%, indicating a more positive market environment [3][5] Group 3 - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced a decline of 0.7%, primarily driven by sell-offs in the banking and insurance sectors, while smaller, high-growth technology stocks began to perform well [7] - The market showed mixed results, with the Shanghai index down, while the Shenzhen and ChiNext indices posted gains, reflecting a shift in investor focus towards growth sectors [7] - The technical analysis indicates that the market is experiencing a rotation, with smaller and high-growth stocks gaining traction after a prolonged period of underperformance [7]

Group 1 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has suddenly adjusted the market closure arrangements and intensified efforts to combat illegal profit transfers, insider trading, and market manipulation, aiming to prevent individuals from taking advantage of the situation [1] - There has been a significant increase in companies announcing share reductions, raising concerns about potential market manipulation and the possibility of a "cutting leeks" scenario for investors [1] - Shandong Molong's stock price has hit the limit up for seven consecutive days, despite the company reporting five years of consecutive losses in net profit attributable to shareholders, indicating a disconnect between stock performance and fundamentals [1] Group 2 - The banking sector in the A-share market experienced a sharp decline, with major banks like Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and Agricultural Bank of China seeing drops of 2.85% and 3% respectively, leading to a nearly 3% decline in the China Securities Bank Index [3][5] - The decline in bank stocks has negatively impacted brokerage stocks, which showed a long upper shadow in their closing prices, suggesting potential recovery in the following week if brokerage stocks rebound [5] - Despite the drop in bank stocks, the overall market maintained a trading volume of over 1.5 trillion yuan, indicating that the bullish sentiment remains intact and that the market is not at an end but rather in a phase of adjustment [7]

作为行情风向标的券商股近期频频异动，除了相关公司股价大幅波动外，整个板块成交量近期也骤然放 大。 另外，值得注意的是，近期多只热门券商股登上龙虎榜，且龙虎榜中普遍出现陆股通专用席位身影，多 空力量"对决"十分激烈。 常被视为A股市场行情风向标的券商板块近期频频异动，成交量亦同步明显放大，其中6月25日整个券 商板块成交额突破1000亿元，为年内首次。 近期券商板块价量齐升 单日成交额年内首超千亿元 不过，券商板块的异动能否真正起到市场"发令枪"作用，还需要其他因素配合。此前年内也有几次券商 板块出现异动，但未能带动A股市场的整体持续上行。 热门券商股背后：陆股通席位多空激烈"对决" 值得注意的是，近期多只大幅上涨的热门券商股还登上龙虎榜，其中多只股票的龙虎榜中除了营业部席 位，还出现陆股通专用席位的身影。 比如天风证券6月27日登上沪市龙虎榜，当天买方前五席位和卖方前五席位中，除了券商营业部席位 外，还出现沪股通专用席位的身影。当天沪股通专用席位买入天风证券约4.42亿元，同时卖出约4.68亿 元。天风证券当天收盘股价大涨7.89%，成交额超过百亿元。 6月26日，国盛金控登上深市龙虎榜，当天深股通专用席位买 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market indices collectively rose during the week of June 27, with the Hang Seng Index increasing by 3.2% to close at 24,284.15 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 4.06% to 5,341.43 points, and the National Enterprises Index up by 2.76% to 8,762.47 points [1] - The IPO market in Hong Kong remained active, with several companies successfully listing or initiating the offering process, including the smart control component manufacturer Sanhua Intelligent Control, which officially listed on June 23 [1] - On June 26, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange witnessed a lively scene with three consumer sector companies—Chow Sang Sang, Saint Bella, and Yingtong Holdings—listing on the same day, while two other companies, Boke Vision and FWD Group, also began their offering process during the week [1] Group 2 - According to Deloitte's recent report, Hong Kong has seen 40 new listings this year, raising HKD 102.1 billion, a significant increase compared to 30 listings and HKD 13.2 billion in the same period last year, marking a 33% rise in the number of new listings and a 673% increase in total funds raised [2] - Ernst & Young's report anticipates that the Hong Kong IPO market will continue to recover in the second half of the year, with a conservative estimate of total fundraising reaching approximately HKD 160 billion for the year [2]