作者：七佰 商业谈判中，同时与多位潜在合作伙伴推进谈判，可以利用其竞争关系争取最优条款。 这是商战中常用的思路，也十分有效。当然，也要注意分寸，一旦忽视规则或将面临左右两难的境地。 这不A股市场就有一家企业玩"脱"了。 近日，"高端零食第一股"良品铺子发布公告称，控股股东宁波汉意及一致行动人与长江国贸签署的《股份转让协议》因生效条件未全部成就，已于10月15日 终止。 这份终止协议转让公告的背后，是良品铺子深陷控股股东"一股两卖"引发的诉讼漩涡，叠加自身业绩持续下滑的双重困境。 良品铺子有诉讼，交易终止 良品铺子曾一度十分接近武汉国资，这也被外界视为其自我"救赎"的起始。 2025年7月17日，良品铺子宣布控股股东宁波汉意拟向武汉国资旗下的长江国贸转让其持有的18.01%股份，一致行动人良品投资则转让2.99%股份。此外， 良品铺子第二大股东达永有限公司也向长江国贸转让3604.99万股股份，合计约8.99%股份。长江国贸为此付出的总交易款项约14.94亿元。 若交易完成，长江国贸将合计获得良品铺子29.99%的股份，成为新任控股股东，良品铺子的实际控制人也将变更为武汉市国资委。 资料显示，长江国贸旗下拥有冷 ...

作者丨Asher 10月28日，溜溜梅更新港交所招股书。文件显示，2024年公司营收突破16亿元，2025年上半年营收同比增长25%，净利润同比增长75.4%。仅仅二天后， 10月30日，溜溜梅在合肥召开2026CNY经销商大会，以"梅力全开，馬上增长"为主题，正式提出"品类大单品"战略。 一个面向资本市场，一个面向渠道终端。在快消行业整体承压的当下，这样的动作格外罕见。距离上一次递交上市申请，已经过去六年。为什么今天溜溜 梅又重新冲击资本市场？在品牌普遍收缩、渠道趋稳的当下，它为何能再次启动加速？ 看似偶然的时间重合，其实是一场系统性的品牌调改。「新经销」从招股书内容和经销商大会演讲分享，做了深度分析，我们发现溜溜梅用六年时间找到 了一条正确的路。 调改： 从行业结构变化找到品牌增长的确定性 过去几年，整个休闲零食行业经历了显著的结构变化：渠道碎片化、货架逻辑重构、消费分层加速。 在经销端，传统的"铺货压货"模式正在失效；在零售端，折扣连锁、即时零售、会员制商超等新兴渠道迅速崛起，终端流量被重新分配；在消费端，消费 者的决策逻辑正从"价格与口味"转向"健康成分、情绪价值、社交分享"等更细腻的需求层次。 整个 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage industry is "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the liquor sector is actively releasing pressure on financial statements, with the industry gradually bottoming out. The frozen food sector is witnessing a turning point, while the soft drink and snack sectors maintain high levels of prosperity [3][4][30] Summary by Sections 1. Liquor - The liquor sector's total revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was CNY 319.23 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 5.76%, with net profit down 6.85% to CNY 122.67 billion. In Q3 alone, revenue fell 18.38% to CNY 78.48 billion, and net profit dropped 22.00% to CNY 28.09 billion [14][28] - High-end liquor brands like Moutai showed stable growth, while others like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao faced significant declines. Moutai's revenue grew by 9.28% year-on-year, while Wuliangye's fell by 10.26% [17][19] - The second-tier liquor brands, such as Fenjiu, showed resilience with a revenue increase of 5.00%, while others like Shui Jing Fang and Shede experienced declines [26][22] 2. Soft Drinks - The soft drink sector saw significant growth, with companies like Dongpeng Beverage reporting a 34.13% increase in revenue year-on-year. The energy drink segment, particularly, showed robust growth [30][31] - The introduction of new flavors and products, such as Dongpeng's summer limited edition, contributed to the sustained high growth rates in this sector [30] 3. Dairy Products - The dairy sector, led by Yili, maintained stable performance despite high base effects, with significant growth in milk powder and cold drink products. New Dairy's low-temperature products continued to show double-digit growth [4][31] 4. Frozen Foods - The frozen food industry is experiencing a turning point, with companies noting that the price war has peaked. The focus is shifting towards rational competition and value [7][30] 5. Snacks - The snack sector is undergoing strategic adjustments, with member stores and instant retail becoming key growth channels. The overall consumption environment remains weak, but the snack sector is adapting with targeted strategies [7][30]

Macro Strategy - The core view is that actual interest rates remain the key anchor for gold prices, with fluctuations in actual rates dominating the market dynamics for gold [1][22] - In October, gold prices experienced a "rise first, then fall" pattern, influenced by U.S. government shutdown concerns and subsequent economic data recovery [1][22] - The outlook for November suggests that gold prices will be driven by geopolitical situations, trade negotiations, and macro policies, with a potential for continued high-level fluctuations [1][22] Fixed Income Strategy - The report discusses a trading strategy of "long old bonds and short new bonds" based on the behavior of active bond spreads during the cutting process [2][23] - The active bond spread is expected to remain profitable, with the maximum spread observed at 9.8 basis points since the switch in 2023 [2][23] - The next active bond switch is anticipated around early January 2026, providing an opportunity to leverage the characteristics of active bond spreads for trading [2][23] Retail Industry - Baima Tea, a leader in the high-end tea market, has recently listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, focusing on high-quality tea products and targeting younger consumers [4][26] - The company's revenue growth has been accompanied by a decline in profit margins, with a slight decrease in gross and net profit margins reported [4][26] - The online sales channel is increasingly significant, with its contribution to total revenue rising from 19% in 2020 to 35% in the first half of 2025 [4][26] Food and Beverage Industry - The report highlights a divergence in growth within the snack sector, with leading companies showing more sustainable growth due to channel changes and consumer shifts [5][27] - Companies like Salted Fish and Wei Long are recommended for their strong channel layouts and significant contributions from key products [5][27] - The report emphasizes the importance of continuous growth and valuation switching certainty in investment recommendations, particularly for companies like Ba Bi Food and Guo Quan [5][27]

Core Insights - Lays has launched an innovative promotional campaign titled "Eat Lays to Win Cash, Meet Stars Weekly," which has generated significant buzz on social media by offering consumers the chance to win cash prizes and meet popular celebrities [1][3] Group 1: Marketing Strategy - The campaign represents a strategic upgrade from traditional promotional methods by combining cash rewards with celebrity meet-and-greet opportunities, allowing consumers to choose their preferred type of reward [3][4] - Lays aims to create unique consumer experiences that enhance brand differentiation in a competitive snack market, focusing on emotional value and consumer engagement [4][5] Group 2: Consumer Engagement - The campaign targets 20 core products and spans over 100 million packages, with a six-month duration and a 100% winning mechanism to encourage ongoing consumer participation [4][10] - Weekly celebrity meet-and-greet opportunities are designed to maintain consumer interest and drive repeat purchases, effectively responding to consumer demands for value and experience [5][10] Group 3: Celebrity Collaboration - Lays has assembled a diverse group of over 30 celebrities from various entertainment sectors to amplify the campaign's reach and engagement through creative video content [6][9] - The brand's spokesperson, Wang Hedi, has played a pivotal role in generating excitement for the campaign, aligning with Lays' brand image of fun and enjoyment [6][9] Group 4: Sales and Distribution - The campaign is structured to create a win-win scenario for the brand, consumers, and distribution partners by leveraging extensive marketing efforts to drive foot traffic and sales in retail locations [10] - By integrating celebrity endorsements and experiential marketing, Lays aims to enhance market penetration and foster long-term brand loyalty [10][11]

Core Viewpoints - The A-share market showed a rebound on Monday, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.55% to 3976.52 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.19% [2][8] - The media industry led the gains among sectors, while the non-ferrous metals sector lagged behind [2][8] - The total trading volume in the A-share market was approximately 2.11 trillion RMB, with over 3400 stocks rising [2][8] Industry Analysis Food and Beverage Industry - The food and beverage sector continues to experience a downward trend in performance, with a year-on-year revenue growth of 0.15% for the first three quarters of 2025, totaling 831.395 billion RMB, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 4.57% to 171.059 billion RMB [11] - Only soft drinks, beer, and fermented seasoning products showed positive growth in both revenue and net profit, with revenue growth rates of 30.97%, 10.93%, and 3.92% respectively [11] - The white wine sector is facing significant challenges, with revenue and net profit growth rates turning negative at -5.83% and -6.93% respectively for the first three quarters of 2025 [14] - The beer sector showed signs of recovery, with revenue and net profit increasing by 2.02% and 11.82% respectively, indicating improved profitability [15] - The snack and soft drink segments performed well, with notable growth from brands like Dongpeng Beverage, which achieved over 34% growth in both revenue and net profit [16] Social Services Industry - The social services sector reported stable revenue growth of 4.94% year-on-year, totaling 150.954 billion RMB, but net profit decreased by 2.86% to 8.697 billion RMB [19] - The tourism and scenic area segment saw revenue growth of 5.09%, but net profit fell by 17.79%, indicating a disparity in performance across different attractions [19] - The hotel and restaurant sector experienced a revenue decline of 4.05% and a significant net profit drop of 25.46%, reflecting ongoing pressure on consumer spending [19] Investment Recommendations - In the food and beverage sector, there are structural investment opportunities, particularly in the beverage, snack, and health supplement industries, with a focus on quality leaders in energy drinks and innovative snack brands [17] - The white wine industry is expected to stabilize, with low valuations and high dividends providing support, suggesting potential investment opportunities as inventory levels decrease [17] - The social services sector is anticipated to benefit from policy support aimed at boosting service consumption, particularly in tourism and education [20]

Core Insights - The food and beverage sector has underperformed the market, with a decline of 1.6% from January to October 2025, lagging behind the CSI 300 by approximately 37.2 percentage points, ranking last among primary sub-industries [4][11][25] - The snack segment has shown better performance with a growth of 32.5%, while beer, seasoning, and liquor have experienced declines of 9.7%, 6.5%, and 4.8% respectively [4][11][25] - The sector's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio has decreased by 10.4% compared to the end of 2024, with an expected net profit growth of 5.4% for 2025, leading to a 5.6% decline in market capitalization [4][17][20] Market Performance - The food and beverage sector has underperformed the market, with a decline of 1.6% from January to October 2025, ranking last among primary sub-industries [4][11] - The snack segment has shown better performance with a growth of 32.5%, while beer, seasoning, and liquor have experienced declines of 9.7%, 6.5%, and 4.8% respectively [4][11] - The sector's PE ratio has decreased by 10.4% compared to the end of 2024, with an expected net profit growth of 5.4% for 2025, leading to a 5.6% decline in market capitalization [4][17] Fund Holdings - In Q3 2025, the allocation of food and beverage in the overall market funds dropped to a new low of 6.4%, down from 8.0% in Q2 2025, marking the lowest level since 2020 [5][37] - The allocation in active equity funds also decreased from 5.6% in Q2 2025 to 4.1% in Q3 2025, indicating a significant reduction in food and beverage exposure [5][37] - The white liquor segment has seen a reduction in fund allocation, with companies like Luzhou Laojiao and Shede Liquor gaining more market favor due to their performance [5][42] Industry Judgment - The macroeconomic environment shows a weak recovery, with China's GDP growth at 4.8% in Q3 2025, slightly down from Q2 2025 [6][46] - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.5% year-on-year in Q3 2025, reflecting a slower recovery pace, primarily due to the impact of the alcohol ban on dining consumption [6][46] - The food manufacturing sector has faced pressure, with revenue growth of only 1.5% and profit growth of 2.1% from January to September 2025, indicating a downward trend [6][52] Investment Opportunities - The food and beverage industry is expected to see a recovery from its bottom, with a focus on resilient consumer spending and improved economic activity [7][65] - The white liquor sector is nearing a left-side layout zone, suggesting gradual investment opportunities in companies like Kweichow Moutai and Luzhou Laojiao [7][68] - The snack segment is recommended for investment due to its growth potential, with companies like Wei Long and Ximai Foods highlighted for their market opportunities [7][69][62]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The food and beverage sector has seen a decline in fund allocation, with the configuration ratio dropping to a new low of 6.4% in Q3 2025 from 8.0% in Q2 2025, indicating a significant reduction in investment interest [5][14] - The white wine sector is expected to reach a performance and valuation bottom, with recommendations to strategically invest in this area due to its relatively low valuation and stable chip structure [8][40] - The beverage and snack sectors are performing well, driven by their essential consumption characteristics and resilience against external market fluctuations [41][43] Summary by Sections Fund Allocation Trends - In Q3 2025, the allocation ratio for food and beverage in all market funds decreased to 6.4%, down 1.6 percentage points from Q2 2025, marking the lowest level since 2020 [5][14] - The allocation ratio for active equity funds in food and beverage fell to 4.1% in Q3 2025, down from 5.6% in Q2 2025, reflecting a continued significant reduction in investment [5][14] White Wine Sector Insights - The proportion of active equity funds heavily invested in white wine decreased from 4.0% in Q2 2025 to 3.2% in Q3 2025, indicating a trend of reduced allocation across both active and passive funds [6][25] - Companies with cleared financial reports, such as Luzhou Laojiao and Shede Liquor, are gaining market favor, while others like Wuliangye and Moutai are seeing reduced holdings [6][25] Performance and Market Dynamics - The food and beverage sector's market value increased by 3.7% in Q3 2025, but it underperformed the CSI 300 index by approximately 18.6 percentage points, ranking fifth from the bottom in the overall market [15][21] - The overall market transaction amount for the food and beverage sector fell to 1.65%, down 1.05 percentage points from the previous quarter, indicating a decline in trading activity [15][21] Investment Recommendations - It is suggested to strategically invest in the white wine sector, focusing on stable companies like Kweichow Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu, as well as those undergoing market reforms like Shede Liquor [8][40] - For the broader consumer goods sector, attention should be given to companies that benefit from new channels and product categories, such as Wei Long and Ximai Foods [43]

Core Viewpoint - Liuliu Fruit Garden Group's financial performance in the first half of the year shows significant growth in revenue and profit, driven primarily by its membership supermarkets and snack specialty stores, despite facing liquidity pressures and changes in sales channels [3][4][6]. Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, Liuliu Fruit Garden Group reported revenue of 959 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.92%, and a net profit of 106 million yuan, up 75.43% [3]. - The main contributors to revenue growth were membership supermarkets and snack specialty stores, with the top two clients, Wancheng Group and Mingming Hen Mang, accounting for 27.3% of total revenue [3][4]. Product Performance - Revenue from dried plum snacks increased by 2.72% to 470 million yuan, while revenue from western plums surged by 99.92% to 195 million yuan, and jelly products rose by 35.96% to 283 million yuan [4]. - The average selling prices of dried plums and western plums increased compared to 2024, while jelly prices remained stable [5]. Sales Channels - Snack specialty stores have become the largest revenue source, surpassing distribution channels, with significant growth in revenue from both membership supermarkets and snack specialty stores [6][9]. - Revenue from membership supermarkets grew by 200.12% to 240 million yuan in the first half of the year, while revenue from snack specialty stores increased by 53.87% to 338 million yuan [6]. Liquidity and Financial Health - The company faces ongoing liquidity pressures, with a current ratio of 98.9% and a quick ratio of 44.6%, both below 1, indicating potential financial strain [10]. - Inventory accounted for over half of current assets, with significant increases in prepayments to suppliers due to high procurement activities during the plum harvest season [10].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant increase in net loss despite revenue growth, indicating challenges in profitability and cost management [1][3]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of the year, the company's revenue increased by 13.12% to 2.854 billion yuan, while net loss rose by 194.06% to 125 million yuan [1]. - In Q3 alone, revenue grew by 25.15% to 914 million yuan, with net loss increasing by 29.73% to 74.65 million yuan, which is also higher than the previous quarter's loss of 50.68 million yuan [1]. Cost Structure - The increase in net loss is attributed to a decline in gross margin, which fell by 9.16% to 31.58% in the first three quarters [3]. - Sales expenses decreased by 7.27% to 679 million yuan, management expenses decreased by 4.73% to 322 million yuan, and R&D expenses dropped significantly by 75.32% to 1.9664 million yuan, while financial expenses rose by 24.33% to 16.6696 million yuan [3]. - The company's sales expenses accounted for 22.04% of revenue, which is higher than competitors such as Three Squirrels (20.69%), Good Products (24.28%), and Salted Fish (9.92%) [3]. Sales Channel Strategy - The company is shifting its sales strategy by reducing the proportion of direct stores and increasing the share of franchise stores, although franchise stores typically yield lower gross margins [5]. - The company announced financial support for franchisees in key cities, with a total amount not exceeding 50 million yuan, aimed at alleviating liquidity pressures [5]. - As of June 30, 2025, the total number of stores decreased to 2,979, with a net reduction of 106 stores, including a decrease of 90 direct stores [5]. Company Background - Founded in 1999 in Shanghai, the company primarily sells self-branded snacks through a commission-based production model and was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 2016 [6].