（2）配额政策落地在即，三代制冷剂有望进入高景气周期。24年起三代制冷剂供给进入"定额+持续削 减"阶段，同时二代制冷剂加速削减，四代制冷剂因为专利问题价格居高不下难以形成替代，制冷剂供 给端持续缩减。同时随着热泵、冷链市场发展以及空调存量市场持续扩张，叠加东南亚国家制冷剂需求 扩张等因素，需求端保持稳定增长。未来制冷剂市场供需缺口将会持续扩大，制冷剂价格稳定上涨，拥 有较高配额占比的公司将充分受益。相关公司：巨化股份、三美股份、昊华科技、永和股份等相关公 司。 华安证券近日发布基础化工行业周报：本周（2025/12/15-2025/12/19）化工板块整体涨跌幅表现排名第5 位，涨跌幅为2.58%，走势处于市场整体上游。上证综指涨跌幅为0.03%，创业板指涨跌幅为-2.26%， 申万化工板块跑赢上证综指2.55个百分点，跑赢创业板指4.83个百分点。 以下为研究报告摘要： 主要观点： 行业周观点 本周（2025/12/15-2025/12/19）化工板块整体涨跌幅表现排名第5位，涨跌幅为2.58%，走势处于市场整 体上游。上证综指涨跌幅为0.03%，创业板指涨跌幅为-2.26%，申万化工板块跑赢上证综指2. ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The chemical sector is expected to continue its differentiated trend in 2025, with recommendations to focus on synthetic biology, pesticides, chromatography media, sweeteners, vitamins, light hydrocarbon chemicals, COC polymers, and MDI [4][5] - The recent suspension of anti-dumping duties on titanium dioxide by India is anticipated to allow Chinese companies to regain market share lost to competitors during the duty period [35] - The closure of four factories by Westlake Group in the U.S. is a strategic move to enhance profitability in high-performance and basic materials [35] Industry Performance - The chemical sector ranked 5th in overall performance for the week of December 15-19, 2025, with a gain of 2.58%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.55 percentage points [3][20] - The polyurethane sub-sector showed the highest increase at 9.04%, while non-metallic materials III experienced a decline of 2.29% [21] Specific Industry Trends - Synthetic biology is at a pivotal moment, with low-energy products expected to see significant growth due to energy structure adjustments [5] - The third-generation refrigerants are entering a high prosperity cycle as supply constraints tighten and demand remains stable [6] - The electronic specialty gases market presents substantial opportunities for domestic companies due to high technical barriers and increasing demand from semiconductor and photovoltaic sectors [7][8] - The trend towards light hydrocarbon chemicals is becoming global, with a shift from heavy naphtha to lighter feedstocks like ethane and propane [8] - The COC polymer industry is accelerating its domestic industrialization, driven by local demand and supply chain security concerns [9] - Potash prices are expected to rebound as major producers reduce output, leading to a tightening supply situation [10] - The MDI market is characterized by oligopoly, with a favorable supply structure anticipated as demand recovers [11]

Core Viewpoint - The total quota for the third-generation refrigerants in China is set at 802,000 tons for 2026, reflecting an increase of 3,050 tons compared to 2025, with no new allocations for mainstream types such as R32, R125, and R134a, which can only gain increments through quota conversion [1] Industry Overview - The third-generation refrigerant industry is highly concentrated, with the top six companies controlling over 90% of the market share [1] - Supply-side constraints for third-generation refrigerants are expected to persist into 2026, with potential tightening of supply for R32, R134a, and R125 [1] Demand Drivers - Strong demand is driven by the growth in new energy vehicles, air conditioning, and foreign trade, leading to a sustained increase in industry prosperity [1] - The dual opportunities from rising prices of third-generation refrigerants and the iteration of fourth-generation technologies are highlighted as key areas for investment [1] Investment Focus - Emphasis is placed on focusing on industry leaders with advanced patents and capacity layouts [1] - Companies related to third-generation refrigerants are expected to benefit significantly from the current market dynamics [1]

Market Overview - Major indices in China opened lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.34%, Shenzhen Component down 0.85%, and ChiNext down 1.17% [1] - The CPO, export tax refund, and fiberglass sectors experienced significant declines [1] Index Performance - Shanghai Composite Index: 3857.26, down 0.34%, with 367 gainers and 1669 losers [2] - Shenzhen Component Index: 13112.61, down 0.85%, with 353 gainers and 2311 losers [2] - ChiNext Index: 3138.66, down 1.17%, with 146 gainers and 1168 losers [2] US Market Performance - US stock indices closed lower, with the Nasdaq down nearly 2% as investors withdrew from AI-related stocks [3] - Dow Jones: 47,885.97, down 0.47%; S&P 500: 6,721.43, down 1.16%; Nasdaq: 22,693.32, down 1.81% [3] - Major Chinese concept stocks mostly declined, with Alibaba down 1.47% and JD down 0.87% [3] Industry Insights - CITIC Securities highlights that the supply-side constraints for third-generation refrigerants will continue until 2026, with strong demand driven by new energy vehicles and air conditioning [4] - CICC forecasts that the Chinese liquor industry will see improved financial statements by 2026, with a gradual recovery in demand and reduced inventory risks [5] - CITIC Jinpu predicts that 2025 will be a breakthrough year for server liquid cooling, benefiting domestic manufacturers as new solutions are introduced [6] - Zhao Shang Securities notes that the explosive demand for energy storage will drive the lithium battery equipment sector into a new growth cycle [7][8] - Huaxi Securities anticipates that pro-natalist policies will continue to emerge, benefiting the maternal and infant consumer goods market [9] - Huatai Securities states that the approval of L3 autonomous driving will accelerate the restructuring of the smart driving industry chain, with significant investment opportunities in key areas [10]

中信证券发布研报称，制冷剂行业正处于配额管理的政策约束期，供需格局持续趋紧驱动价格进入长景 气通道，同时四代技术迭代已拉开序幕，建议把握政策与技术双轮驱动下，三代制冷剂价格上行与四代 技术迭代的双重机遇。在此背景下，聚焦行业龙头，专利与产能布局同步领先;同时三代制冷剂相关企 业有望显著受益。 中信证券主要观点如下： 2026年配额出台，三代制冷剂供给侧约束持续，涨价逻辑不改。 2026年我国三代制冷剂总配额80.2万吨，较2025年增发3050吨，其中主流品类R32、R125、R134a等未 见增发，仅可通过配额转换获取增量。三代制冷剂行业份额高度集中，前六大企业掌控超90%份额。由 于性能及技术原因，第三代制冷剂仍是无法被替代的市场主力。在需求持续增长，而供给受配额政策严 格限制的背景下，第三代制冷剂供需将维持紧平衡，且缺口将持续扩大，带动行业景气度持续上行;R32 作为最主要的品种有望持续发力，车载领域的R134a、混配方向的R125需求短期内或将被快速拉动。 汽车板块稳增长及新能源车快速推广下，R134a供需有望进一步趋紧。 根据《热泵型热管理系统整车制冷剂充注量标定方法研究》(潘乐燕、王天英、牛凤仙等 ...

中信证券研报认为，2026年三代制冷剂供给侧限制料将持续，R32、R134a、R125供给或进一步趋紧。 受益于新能源车、空调及外贸需求拉动，需求侧刺激强烈，行业景气度持续上行，建议把握政策与技术 双轮驱动下，三代制冷剂价格上行与四代技术迭代的双重机遇。在此背景下，聚焦行业龙头，专利与产 能布局同步领先；同时三代制冷剂相关企业有望显著受益。 ...

人民财讯12月18日电，中信证券研报称，2026年三代制冷剂供给侧限制料将持续，R32、R134a、R125 供给或进一步趋紧。受益于新能源车、空调及外贸需求拉动，需求侧刺激强烈，行业景气度持续上行， 建议把握政策与技术双轮驱动下，三代制冷剂价格上行与四代技术迭代的双重机遇。在此背景下，聚焦 行业龙头，专利与产能布局同步领先；同时三代制冷剂相关企业有望显著受益。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huazhong Securities highlights the peak of domestic silicon production capacity, the exit of overseas manufacturers, and the potential recovery of the polyester chain's prosperity due to concentrated production capacity in the polyester filament sector [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Trends - Domestic silicon production capacity has reached its peak, while leading companies are driving industry recovery as overseas manufacturers continue to exit [1][3]. - The PTA production capacity expansion is nearing its end, leading to a concentration in polyester filament production capacity, which is expected to improve the prosperity of the polyester chain [1][3]. - The price of caprolactam has dropped to a low point, prompting the industry to initiate self-driven anti-involution measures [3]. - The raw material price index has rebounded after hitting a bottom, with frequent safety incidents causing significant risks to the global supply chain of key pesticides [3]. - The price of spandex has remained below the cost line, leading to widespread industry losses, but a slowdown in new capacity releases may optimize the supply structure and drive price recovery [3]. - The vitamin market is expected to see significant price increases in 2024 due to a tightening global supply [3]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The report emphasizes two main investment themes: anti-involution and domestic substitution, particularly in the context of global macroeconomic uncertainties and a slowdown in chemical capital expenditures [2][4]. - The biobased materials sector is receiving strong support from national policies, with companies accelerating technological breakthroughs and industrialization [4][6]. - The lubricating oil additive sector is witnessing rapid technological advancements among domestic companies, with several high-end products achieving international certification [4][6]. - The electronic ceramics market is seeing strong demand driven by AI and automotive sectors, with domestic manufacturers making breakthroughs in MLCC production [4][6]. - The exit of 3M from the fluorinated liquids market is reshaping the competitive landscape, with domestic manufacturers expected to increase their market share [4][6]. - The explosive growth of AI servers is driving demand for electronic-grade polyphenylene ether, with domestic manufacturers achieving technological breakthroughs and entering key supply chains [4][6].

华安证券近日发布基础化工行业周报：本周（2025/12/08-2025/12/12）化工板块整体涨跌幅表现排名第 26位，涨跌幅为-2.19%，走势处于市场整体下游。上证综指涨跌幅为-0.34%，创业板指涨跌幅为 2.74%，申万化工板块跑输上证综指1.85个百分点，跑输创业板指4.93个百分点。 本周（2025/12/08-2025/12/12）化工板块整体涨跌幅表现排名第26位，涨跌幅为-2.19%，走势处于市场 整体下游。上证综指涨跌幅为-0.34%，创业板指涨跌幅为2.74%，申万化工板块跑输上证综指1.85个百 分点，跑输创业板指4.93个百分点。 2025年化工行业景气度将延续分化趋势，推荐关注合成生物学、农药、层析介质、代糖、维生素、轻烃 化工、COC聚合物、MDI等行业: （1）合成生物学奇点时刻到来。能源结构调整大背景下，化石基材料或在局部面临颠覆性冲击，低耗 能的产品或产业有望获得更长成长窗口。对于传统化工企业而言，未来的竞争在于能耗和碳税的成本， 优秀的传统化工企业会利用绿色能源代替方案、一体化和规模化优势来降低能耗成本，亦或新增产能转 移至更大的海外市场，从而达到双减的目标。同时，随着 ...

Market Performance - The basic chemical index decreased by 2.19% from December 6 to December 12, while the CSI 300 index fell by only 0.08%, indicating that the basic chemical sector underperformed the CSI 300 by 2.12 percentage points, ranking 26th among all sectors [1][2] - The top-performing sub-industries included rubber additives (4.50%), adhesives and tapes (2.95%), non-metallic materials III (1.04%), synthetic resins (0.68%), and other rubber products (0.37%) [1][2] Chemical Price Trends - The top five products with the highest weekly price increases were hydrogen peroxide (14.67%), R125 (13.33%), hydrochloric acid (Shandong) (12.50%), domestic vitamin E (8.33%), and raw salt (5.77%) [3] - The top five products with the largest weekly price declines were liquid chlorine (-33.33%), NYMEX natural gas (-22.31%), R22 (-13.89%), hydrochloric acid (Jiangsu) (-12.50%), and R134a (-8.33%) [3] Industry Dynamics - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment announced the issuance of production, use, and import quotas for ozone-depleting substances and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) for 2026, with a total production quota of 797,800 tons, a slight increase of 5,963 tons from 2025 [4] - The production quotas for R134a, R245fa, R32, and R125 will increase by 3,272, 2,918, 1,171, and 351 tons respectively, while R143 and R227ea will see reductions of 1,255 and 517 tons [4] - The high demand for third-generation refrigerants is expected to continue, with prices remaining elevated; as of December 12, the market prices for R32, R125, and R134a in East China were 63,300, 45,000, and 57,500 yuan per ton, respectively [4] - The production of air conditioners and automobiles in China showed growth, with cumulative production from January to October 2025 reaching 230 million units and 27.325 million vehicles, representing year-on-year increases of 3% and 11% respectively [4] Price Adjustments in the Industry - Several leading companies in the light stabilizer sector have announced price increases of approximately 10% to address long-standing issues of irrational price competition [5] - The price adjustments were initiated by major players such as Lianlong and followed by others like Suqian Liansheng and Tiangang Additives [5] Investment Recommendations - Focus on the refrigerant sector, as the supply-demand balance is expected to improve, with price levels likely to rise; recommended companies include Jinshi Resources, Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Yonghe Co. [6] - Attention is also suggested for the chemical fiber sector, with recommended companies being Huafeng Chemical, Xin Fengming, and Taihe New Materials [6] - Other quality targets include Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, Luxi Chemical, and Baofeng Energy [6] - The tire sector is highlighted with recommendations for Sailun Tire, Senqilin, and Linglong Tire [6] - In the agricultural chemicals sector, recommended companies include Yara International, Salt Lake Co., Xingfa Group, Yuntianhua, and Yangnong Chemical [6] - Quality growth targets include Blue Sky Technology, Shengquan Group, and Shandong Heda [6] Industry Rating - The basic chemical industry maintains an "overweight" rating [7]