21世纪经济报道记者贺泓源、实习生韦怡琦 比库迪更便宜的幸运咖门店数破万家了。 亦要看到，随着外卖补贴退潮，咖啡价格战可能会进入更稳定的新阶段。 大概方向是，产品价格稳定在某个区间。比如，库迪曾靠着一己之力把咖啡市场拖入9.9元价格战，现 在库迪正坚守在这一区间。可从产品价格上，应该不会再出现2.9元的超低价。 幸运咖会把市场带到6-8元区间吗？客观上，咖啡茶饮赛道，是典型高频消费赛道，产品补贴价格降低 后能催生出大量需求。若瑞幸、库迪们不跟，同行将会迅速占领市场，所以只能迎战。 2025年11月24日，幸运咖宣布，其全球门店数量正式突破10000家。幸运咖是蜜雪集团旗下现磨咖啡品 牌，主要产品定价在6-8元。作为对比，库迪正在实施全场9.9元。 从门店规模来看，截至三季度末，瑞幸门店数为29214家。库迪最新数据是1.8万家。 另据幸运咖披露，截至目前，幸运咖门店已覆盖全国超300座城市，包括一线、二三线城市及广大下沉 市场。其中，一线市场的门店数已超千家，北京地区门店数达到100家。 需要注意的是，幸运咖的爆发，有着外卖大战推动。在今年二季度，幸运咖新签门店同比增长164%。7 月以来，加盟咨询量环比增长 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the rising trend of collaboration between coffee brands and anime/game IPs, highlighting the marketing strategies and consumer engagement involved in this phenomenon [3][4][5]. Group 1: Collaboration Trends - The collaboration trend in the beverage industry has shifted from occasional marketing tactics to a daily operational norm, particularly in coffee brands, with Luckin Coffee leading the charge with approximately 90 collaborations this year [4][5]. - Luckin Coffee has engaged in over 50 collaborations with anime, game, or cartoon characters, accounting for at least 40% of their total collaborations [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The increase in store density among coffee chains has diluted customer traffic, making it challenging for brands to attract consumers solely through new product launches [5][6]. - The competition has intensified, leading brands to seek innovative ways to increase customer visit frequency, as traditional new product strategies have become less effective [6]. Group 3: Marketing Effectiveness - Collaborating with established anime or game IPs offers a cost-effective marketing strategy compared to traditional celebrity endorsements, as these collaborations can drive customer traffic and sales more directly [7][8]. - For instance, a collaboration with the game "Black Myth: Wukong" resulted in over 100,000 sales on the first day, showcasing the potential impact of such partnerships [7][8]. Group 4: Consumer Engagement - The emotional value associated with anime and game characters drives consumer purchases, as young consumers are motivated by the emotional connections they have with these characters [11]. - The Z generation, being the primary consumers of anime content, aligns well with the target demographic of coffee chains, enhancing the effectiveness of these collaborations [11]. Group 5: Challenges and Concerns - Rising marketing costs are a significant concern, with collaboration fees for top IPs exceeding millions, leading to increased financial pressure on brands [12]. - The frequency of collaborations with the same IP can dilute their effectiveness, causing consumer fatigue and reducing the overall impact of marketing efforts [12][13]. - There are higher expectations for the quality and creativity of the products associated with anime IPs, and failure to meet these expectations can lead to negative perceptions among fans [13].

刚刚过去的一个季度里，瑞幸的门店总数达到29214 家，这个数字是 2020 年退市时的6倍。五年时间里，它从每卖一杯亏 掉5.6 元，到如今单杯稳定获利1.2 元[1]。粉单市场上，它的股价从最低不到 1 美元一路反弹，不断逼近退市前 129 亿美元 的总市值峰点。 这些标志性的数字，构成了瑞幸重生的叙事。 这是近十年来中国商业史上最具代表性的"困境反转"案例。它修正了资本市场对于"中概股退市必死"的刻板印象，演绎了 一段投资机构逆势支持企业的佳话，更用一场起死回生告诉人们： 中国消费市场是一个庞大的存在，只要持续做好自己的产品，就可以活得比所有人以为的更有韧性。 2021年，生椰拿铁的上市宣布了瑞幸的"卷土重来"——单月销量突破 2000 万杯，相当于每秒钟卖出 7 杯，券后价格常年 9.9 元就能实现盈利。瑞幸又回到了最朴素的商业常识里：好产品是前面的1，其他能力是后面的0。规模只是产品的结果， 份额只是品牌的具象。 事实上，IDG资本从一开始就非常看好瑞幸，但一直没有找到合适的入局机会。公司投资团队判断瑞幸本身的品牌、门店 网络、数字化系统等都是良性健康的，只是在前期试图用大量补贴，在短期急速培养消费 ...

刚刚 过去的一个季度里，瑞幸的门店总数达到 2 921 4 家，这个数字是 2020 年退市时的 6 倍。五年时 间里，它从每卖一杯亏掉 5.6 元，到如今单杯稳定获利 1.2 元 [1 ] 。粉单市场上，它的股价从最低不到 1 美元一路反弹，不断逼近退市前 129 亿美 元的总市值峰点。 这些标志性的数字，构成了瑞幸重生的叙事。 如今中国最好的一批消费品牌，到底是怎么诞生的？ 重戴王冠 退市对于任何一家公司都是一次致命打击。但面对瑞幸，市场却表现得极为冷静和客观，即便流落粉单 市场，瑞幸也并没有离开机构们的视野中央。 先有雪湖资本把瑞幸的目标价大幅上调，估值直逼星巴克，其创始人马自铭高调宣布在粉单买了点瑞幸 股份以表支持 [2] ；后有大钲资本携手 IDG 资本、 Ares SSG ，斥资超 4 亿美元完成了对瑞幸咖啡大部 分股权的收购，保下了瑞幸的品牌。 这是近十年来中国商业史上最具代表性的 " 困境反转 " 案例。它修正了资本市场对于 " 中概股退市必死 " 的刻板印象，演绎了一段投资机构逆势支持企业的佳话，更用一场起死回生告诉人们： 中国消费市场是一个庞大的存在，只要持续做好自己的产品，就可以活得比所 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on high-risk assets, particularly cryptocurrencies, while expressing optimism for AI technology and the Macau tourism sector [3]. Core Views - The market is currently under pressure due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate discussions and ongoing debates about AI, leading to significant declines in high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies. Concerns are rising regarding the sustainability of AI's commercial applications despite its recognized efficiency improvements. The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on technology leaders with strong cash flows, such as Google, META, Microsoft, Alibaba, and Tencent, while also monitoring the application of AI in various sectors [3]. - The Macau tourism industry is highlighted as a valuable investment opportunity, benefiting from a favorable supply-demand dynamic and expected growth during the upcoming holiday periods [3]. - The report suggests that trading platforms remain attractive, with potential for accumulation following market corrections [3]. Summary by Sections 1.1 Consumer & Internet 1.1.1 Education - The Chinese education index fell by 4.60%, outperforming the Hang Seng Index but underperforming major indices like the Shanghai Composite [11]. - New Oriental launched an AI education product, SureChinese, aimed at a broader audience, with 160,000 users across 138 countries [19]. 1.1.2 Luxury Goods & Gambling - The S&P Global Luxury Goods Index decreased by 1.49%, with notable declines in major gambling stocks like Sands China and Wynn Macau [21]. - The upcoming sports events in Macau are expected to attract over 2 million tourists, boosting the local tourism sector [3]. 1.1.3 Coffee & Tea - The coffee sector remains robust, while the tea segment faces challenges due to reduced promotional activities from delivery platforms [30]. 1.1.4 E-commerce & Internet - The Hang Seng Internet Technology Index fell by 5.90%, with mixed performances among major e-commerce players [36]. - Pinduoduo reported a 9% year-on-year revenue increase, reaching 108.3 billion yuan [41]. 1.2 Platforms & Technology 1.2.1 Streaming Platforms - The Hang Seng Media Index dropped by 6.86%, with mixed results among key players like iQIYI and Spotify [45]. - iQIYI reported a revenue decline of 8% year-on-year for Q3 [53]. 1.2.2 Virtual Assets & Internet Brokers - The global cryptocurrency market capitalization fell to $305.32 billion, with Bitcoin and Ethereum prices decreasing by 10% and 11% respectively [49]. - Futu Holdings reported a significant revenue increase of 86% year-on-year for Q3 [56]. 1.2.3 Automotive Services - The automotive sector saw a mixed performance, with some companies like AutoZone and O'Reilly Auto Parts showing gains while others faced declines [60].

Core Insights - Luckin Coffee's revenue increased by 50.2% year-on-year to 15.287 billion yuan in Q3 2025, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 2.7% to 1.278 billion yuan [1][6] Revenue and Profitability - The primary reason for the revenue growth without corresponding profit increase is the fierce competition in the food delivery market [2] - In Q3, Luckin Coffee added 3,008 new stores, reaching a total of 29,214 stores, marking an 11.5% quarter-on-quarter growth [3] - The average monthly active users reached a historical high of 112 million, a 40.6% year-on-year increase, with 42 million new users added in the quarter [3] Cost Structure and Efficiency - The proportion of raw material costs to total net revenue decreased from 39% in the same period of 2024 to 36%, with raw material costs increasing by 41% to 5.5 billion yuan [4] - Rent and other operating costs as a percentage of total net revenue fell from 22% to 20%, with these costs rising by 36% to 3.1 billion yuan [4] - Sales and marketing expenses as a percentage of total net revenue decreased from 6% to 5%, with these expenses growing by 28% to 751 million yuan [4] - General and administrative expenses also saw a reduction in proportion from 6% to 5%, increasing by 25% to 793 million yuan [4] Delivery Costs and Profit Impact - Delivery costs surged to 2.89 billion yuan, a 211.4% increase, leading to a rise in delivery cost percentage from 9.1% to 18.9%, which reduced operating profit margin to 11.6% [5] - The increase in delivery costs contributed to the decline in net profit, contrasting with Yum China, which saw a 7.8% increase in operating profit [6] Competitive Landscape - The coffee and tea beverage sector is characterized by high-frequency consumption, necessitating competitive pricing to maintain market share [7] - Yum China's higher average transaction value and stronger membership system provide a competitive edge, allowing them to mitigate delivery commission costs [8] Strategic Direction - Luckin Coffee is exploring structural solutions, emphasizing in-store pickup as a primary consumption method, while viewing delivery as a supplementary channel [9] - The company anticipates short-term fluctuations and pressures on same-store sales growth as delivery subsidies decrease [9]

Core Insights - Luckin Coffee's revenue increased by 50.2% year-on-year to RMB 15.287 billion in Q3 2025, but net profit decreased by 2.7% to RMB 1.278 billion, primarily due to the impact of the delivery battle [1][5]. Financial Performance - Total net revenues reached RMB 15.3 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 50.2% [2]. - Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) grew by 48.1% year-on-year to RMB 17.3 billion [2]. - Average monthly transacting customers increased by 40.6% year-on-year to 112.3 million [2]. - Store-level operating profit rose by 10.2% year-on-year to RMB 1.941 billion, with an operating margin of 17.5% [2]. - GAAP operating income increased by 12.9% year-on-year to RMB 1.777 billion [2]. Store Expansion - The company added 3,008 new stores in Q3, reaching a total of 29,214 stores, marking an 11.5% quarter-on-quarter growth [3]. - Self-operated stores accounted for 18,882, while franchise stores numbered 10,332 [3]. Customer Engagement - Monthly average transacting users hit a record high of 112 million, with 42 million new users added in the quarter [3]. - Same-store sales increased by 14.4% year-on-year, recovering from previous declines [3]. Cost Structure - Raw material costs as a percentage of total net revenue decreased from 39% to 36% year-on-year, despite a 41% increase in absolute value to RMB 5.5 billion [3]. - Rent and other operating costs as a percentage of total net revenue fell from 22% to 20%, with a 36% increase in absolute value to RMB 3.1 billion [4]. - Sales and marketing expenses decreased from 6% to 5% of total net revenue, with a 28% increase in absolute value to RMB 751 million [4]. Delivery Costs - Delivery expenses surged by 211.4% year-on-year to RMB 2.89 billion, accounting for 18.9% of total revenue, which negatively impacted operating profit margins [5]. - The company’s net profit decline was attributed to the rising delivery costs associated with the competitive landscape [5]. Competitive Landscape - The delivery battle has intensified, with competitors like KFC and Pizza Hut showing more stable profit margins [6]. - Luckin Coffee is compelled to engage in price competition to maintain market share in the high-frequency coffee consumption sector [7]. Strategic Direction - The company is exploring structural solutions, including a shift towards in-store pickup as a primary consumption method [9]. - The CEO emphasized that delivery costs are too high relative to the pricing sensitivity of coffee, and the focus will return to in-store consumption over time [10]. - The company anticipates short-term fluctuations in same-store sales growth due to the tapering of delivery subsidies [11].

Core Insights - Luckin Coffee's revenue increased by 50.2% year-on-year to RMB 15.287 billion in Q3 2025, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 2.7% to RMB 1.278 billion, primarily due to the impact of the delivery battle [1][6]. Financial Performance - Total net revenues reached RMB 15.3 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 50.2% [2]. - The company's gross merchandise volume (GMV) grew by 48.1% year-on-year to RMB 17.3 billion [2]. - Average monthly transacting customers increased by 40.6% year-on-year to 112.3 million [2]. - Store-level operating profit rose by 10.2% to RMB 1.941 billion, with a store-level operating margin of 17.5% [2]. - GAAP operating income increased by 12.9% to RMB 1.777 billion [2]. Store Expansion - In Q3, Luckin Coffee added 3,008 new stores, reaching a total of 29,214 stores, marking an 11.5% quarter-on-quarter growth [3]. - The number of self-operated stores is 18,882, while franchise stores account for 10,332 [3]. Cost Structure - The proportion of raw material costs to total net revenue decreased from 39% in 2024 to 36% in 2025, despite a 41% year-on-year increase in absolute value to RMB 5.5 billion [3][4]. - Rent and other operating costs as a percentage of total net revenue fell from 22% to 20%, with absolute costs rising by 36% to RMB 3.1 billion [4]. - Sales and marketing expenses decreased from 6% to 5% of total net revenue, with absolute expenses growing by 28% to RMB 751 million [4]. - General and administrative expenses also decreased from 6% to 5% of total net revenue, with absolute expenses increasing by 25% to RMB 793 million [5]. Delivery Costs and Profitability - Delivery costs surged by 211.4% year-on-year to RMB 2.89 billion, accounting for 18.9% of total net revenue, which negatively impacted operating profit margin, reducing it to 11.6% [6]. - The increase in delivery costs is attributed to the competitive delivery battle, contrasting with Yum China, which reported a 7.8% increase in operating profit [6][8]. Market Dynamics - The coffee and tea beverage sector is characterized by high-frequency consumption, necessitating competitive pricing strategies to maintain market share [7]. - Luckin Coffee is exploring structural solutions, emphasizing in-store pickup as a primary consumption method, while delivery serves as a supplementary channel [9].

Core Insights - Luckin Coffee reported a total net revenue of 15.287 billion yuan for Q3 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 50.2% [1] - The company achieved an operating profit of 1.777 billion yuan, with an operating profit margin of 11.6% [1] - The total number of stores reached 29,214, with a net increase of over 3,000 stores in the quarter [1] Financial Performance - Q3 total net revenue was 15.287 billion yuan, a 50.2% increase year-on-year [1] - Operating profit for the quarter was 1.777 billion yuan, with a profit margin of 11.6% [1] - Self-operated store revenue was 11.08 billion yuan, up 47.7% year-on-year, while operating profit from these stores was 1.941 billion yuan, a 10.2% increase [1] Store Expansion - The total number of stores reached 29,214, with a net increase of 3,000 stores in Q3 [1] - In China, the company added 2,979 stores, bringing the total to 29,096, with franchise stores exceeding 10,000 for the first time at 10,287 [1] - Internationally, the company added 29 stores, reaching a total of 118 stores across Singapore, the United States, and Malaysia [1] Customer Growth - The company added over 42 million new transaction customers in Q3, with an average monthly transaction customer count of 112 million, a 40.6% year-on-year increase [2] - Cumulative transaction customer count surpassed 420 million by the end of Q3 [2] Market Challenges - The company faces significant market challenges from traditional competitors employing low-price strategies [2] - New entrants like JD.com with its "Seven Fresh Coffee" plan are intensifying competition in the coffee market [2] - Industry analysis suggests that the company must maintain price competitiveness while innovating products and exploring overseas markets for growth [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on cloud vendors and internet healthcare platforms, suggesting they are key areas for investment focus [3][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights ongoing discussions about the AI bubble, with short-term volatility expected. However, leading tech companies like Microsoft, Google, and Meta continue to show strong free cash flow, indicating no immediate pressure on static valuations and cash flows [3]. - The report emphasizes the growth potential in the internet healthcare sector due to low penetration rates and favorable market dynamics [3]. - The report remains bullish on trading platforms and cryptocurrency assets, noting that while short-term price increases may be challenging due to global liquidity pressures, there are significant long-term support factors [3]. Industry Situation Tracking Education - The education index fell by 2.90%, underperforming compared to major indices. Notable declines were observed in companies like Gaotu and NetEase Youdao, which dropped 8.49% and 11.12% respectively [11][21]. Luxury Goods & Gambling - The luxury goods index rose by 0.52%, with significant gains in companies like Galaxy Entertainment, which increased by 6.24%. The report notes a recovery in the Chinese market, contributing positively to luxury brand performance [23][29]. Coffee & Tea - The coffee sector remains robust, with over 250,000 related enterprises in China and a significant increase in registrations this year. The tea sector, however, is facing challenges due to reduced subsidies from delivery platforms [31][33]. E-commerce - The e-commerce sector showed slight pressure, with a 6.3% increase in online retail sales for the first ten months of the year. The report notes a subdued performance during the recent Double Eleven shopping festival [34][39]. Streaming Platforms - The streaming sector experienced a decline, with Tencent Music's stock dropping significantly despite a 20.6% year-on-year revenue increase [38][43]. Virtual Assets & Trading Platforms - The global cryptocurrency market capitalization decreased by 0.75%, with Bitcoin and Ethereum prices falling by 8.6% and 9.5% respectively. The report highlights ongoing challenges in the crypto market but notes potential long-term opportunities [44][48]. Automotive Services - The automotive service sector is expanding, with JD Auto surpassing 100 operational stores in Shenzhen. The report emphasizes the growth potential in the automotive aftermarket [51][55].