日期：2025年12月19日 核心观点： ➢ 25年政策力度整体平淡，26年可能迎来政策组合拳。自去年9.24至今，已经持续五个季度没有出现强刺激的地产政策。我们理解主要是因为 今年的出口较为强劲，全年的经济增长任务完成情况较好，地产端的宽松政策可能延后。在此背景下，今年下半年以来房价，尤其是二手房 价加速下行，亟需等待政策托底。 而就在近期举行的12月中央经济工作会议，明确了对26年房地产工作的要求是"着力稳定房地产市场"；并提出房 地产政策方向，包括因城 施策控增量、去库存、优供给，鼓励收储、深化公积金制度改革、推动"好房子"建设；此外，在货币政策工具方面，提到"灵活高效运用 降准降息"。 26年政策重点关注：1）降息、房贷贴息。其本质是降低购房者实际利率，收敛与净租金回报率的差距以重塑房价的底部支撑，阻断下行螺旋。 26年降息预期提升，但"灵活高效运用"也可能预示下降空间较为有限；房贷贴息的关键则在于幅度与周期长度。2）深化公积金改革。在商 贷收缩的情况下，公积金作为另一重要购房资金渠道，若能更在使用用途、资金管理等方面突破，并更大范围推广，公积金池剩余资金或可 撬动房地产市场加速企稳回升。3）核心城市 ...

购物中心板块：运营能力远超同业。板块的毛利润贡献占比达56.3%（1H25）已经成为绝对利润支柱。 公司购物中心运营能力远超同业，零售额方面，1-9M25 累计零售额同比增20-25%，同店增10-15%，重 奢定位的14 个购物中心同店增速高于整体，均远超同期社零增速的3.0%；国庆期间，公司购物中心整 体零售额同比增25%，同店增速低双位数，重奢定位的14 个购物中心同店增20%，对比上海重点商圈销 售额同比10.2%的增速，显著更强。外拓方面，公司在10 月底已落地8 个项目，预计全年10 个的目标将 有序完成。新开业方面，截至9 月，公司开业购物中心10 个，预计全年14 个的目标也将稳步达成。我 们预估购物中心板块的收入/毛利润增速将在25 年达18%/27%，得益于毛利率显著提高5.9 个百分点至约 78.5%，毛利贡献占比也进一步提升5 个百分点至约60%。 基础物管板块：三方外拓持续发力。公司全年三方外拓目标年化合同金额约10 亿元，截至9 月已完成近 8 亿元。基于今年公司依然属于处于低质项目退盘阶段（1H25 退盘约1,300 万方）及当前经济环境下受 到的收缴率挑战，我们预估全年综合在管 ...

（香港及上海，2025年12月12日）恒隆地产有限公司（香港联交所股份代号：00101）（"公司"或"恒隆"）今日宣布携手上海九百（集团）有限公司签约上 海南京西路1038号商业运营项目。项目由恒隆以20年的营运租赁形式经营，将为恒隆在南京西路的项目增加约96,000平方米的总建筑面积，扩大约44%至约 312,335平方米。此举亦是"恒隆V.3"策略落地的最新里程碑，充分彰显公司致力于通过高资本效益的投资及资产优化，巩固其在核心市场的领导地位，并为 上海建设国际消费中心城市注入新动能。 wi r 8 g n 6- g 377 r 2017 FE 150 t 2 115 t in 201 = 174 免责声明：本文内容与数据由观点根据公开信息整理，不构成投资建议，使用前请核实。 上海市静安区委书记钟晓咏，区委副书记、区长翟磊出席签约活动。恒隆地产董事长陈文博、行政总裁卢韦柏等共同见证合作签约的历史时刻。 南京西路1038号商业运营项目坐落于南京西路黄金地段，其前身为梅龙镇广场。从上海恒隆广场至南京西路1038号的片区，是上海南京西路"核心中的核 心"，亦是沪上首屈一指的零售及生活时尚中心。作为上海城市更新的标 ...

去年8月起停止运营的原梅龙镇广场物业将迎来新的运营方。12月12日，恒隆地产宣布与上海九百（集 团）有限公司（简称"九百集团"）签约上海南京西路1038号商业运营项目（前身为梅龙镇广场）。项目 由恒隆以20年的营运租赁形式经营，将为恒隆在南京西路的项目增加约96,000平方米的总建筑面积，扩 大约44%至约312,335平方米。 ...

招银国际发布研报称，由于华润万象生活(01209)估值更高的零售板块业务表现优预期，将贡献更高的 盈利占比，故上调目标市盈率倍数至23倍，对应年份滚动至2026年。因此，相应上调目标价18%，由 43.86港元升至51.84港元，维持"买入"评级。 报告表示，华润万象生活购物中心板块已成为绝对利润支柱，持续展现远超同业的运营能力。该行预 计，该板块利润贡献占比将于今年全年度，提升至60%，收入及毛利润增速分别达18%及27%。另外， 集团自2023年起至今维持100%派息，该行预计今年将持续此派息趋势，对应4.4%的股息率，在央企中 具较高吸引力。 ...

报告表示，华润万象生活购物中心板块已成为绝对利润支柱，持续展现远超同业的运营能力。该行预 计，该板块利润贡献占比将于今年全年度，提升至60%，收入及毛利润增速分别达18%及27%。另外， 集团自2023年起至今维持100%派息，该行预计今年将持续此派息趋势，对应4.4%的股息率，在央企中 具较高吸引力。 智通财经APP获悉，招银国际发布研报称，由于华润万象生活(01209)估值更高的零售板块业务表现优预 期，将贡献更高的盈利占比，故上调目标市盈率倍数至23倍，对应年份滚动至2026年。因此，相应上调 目标价18%，由43.86港元升至51.84港元，维持"买入"评级。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Wanda Group is undergoing a significant shift in its asset disposal strategy, with recent changes in shareholder structure and management at Yantai Zhifu Wanda Plaza, indicating a potential recovery of its commercial real estate holdings after selling over 40 Wanda Plazas [1][3]. Group 1: Shareholder Changes - Yantai Zhifu Wanda Plaza recently saw a change in its shareholder structure, with Wanda Commercial Management Group becoming the sole controlling shareholder through its subsidiary, Shanghai Wanda Ruichi Enterprise Management Co., Ltd. [1] - The previous shareholders, Xinhua Insurance's Kunhua (Tianjin) Equity Investment Partnership and Kunyuanchengxing (Xiamen) Investment Management Consulting Co., Ltd., have exited [1][3]. Group 2: Financial Context - Wanda Group is facing significant debt pressure, with over 5.2 billion yuan in total execution amounts and an expanding scale of equity freezes, including a notable freeze of 5 billion yuan on September 1 [3]. - To alleviate financial strain, Wanda Group has been selling off its Wanda Plaza projects, with a recent deal involving the sale of 48 project companies to a consortium led by Taikang, with a transaction value potentially reaching 50 billion yuan [3]. Group 3: Ongoing Asset Sales - Wanda Commercial Management has been consistently divesting assets, with recent exits from shareholder positions in companies like Chuzhou Wanda Plaza Investment Co., Ltd. and Guangzhou Zengcheng Wanda Plaza Co., Ltd. [4].

Core Points - UnionPay collaborates with Beijing Longfor Tianjie to launch a payment discount campaign, offering a discount of 30 yuan for purchases over 200 yuan from now until March 31, 2026 [1][3] - Longfor Commercial operates eight Tianjie locations across six districts in Beijing, providing a high-quality urban lifestyle experience through new brand openings and innovative spaces [1][3] Group 1 - The discount campaign is available at eight Longfor Tianjie shopping centers, allowing users to enjoy a convenient payment process with UnionPay mobile Pay [3] - Users must hold a UnionPay card issued in mainland China or a UnionPay-Visa dual-branded card to participate in the discount offer [3] - The campaign aims to enhance consumer experience by combining shopping with emotional value through quality retail, dining, and entertainment [3][1] Group 2 - The payment process for UnionPay mobile Pay involves a simple four-step procedure for users to link their bank cards and make payments [5][6] - The campaign encourages social interactions by inviting friends and family to enjoy shopping and dining experiences together while benefiting from the discount [3]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the Chinese real estate market, highlighting significant challenges and potential shifts in consumer behavior [1][3]. Core Insights - The Chinese real estate market is transitioning from new homes to second-hand homes and now to rental properties, with increasing rental demand but persistent oversupply issues [1][3]. - The supply of affordable housing is expected to divert demand from the commercial housing and rental markets, with the 14th Five-Year Plan aiming to construct 8.7 million affordable housing units, accounting for about 20% of new home transactions annually [1][3]. - New development models include optimizing affordable housing supply and abolishing the pre-sale system, which may hinder private developers' ability to sustain real estate projects [1][3]. - High-end retail in mainland China shows signs of recovery, benefiting from a favorable stock market and rising gold prices, while shopping center supply is expected to decrease, enhancing rental income potential [1][4][6]. - In Hong Kong, residential rents have increased by approximately 5%-6% annually over the past two years, driven by policies attracting talent, with the current rent-to-sale ratio around 3.7% [1][9][10]. - The demand for office space in Hong Kong is rising, particularly in the financial sector, with expectations for Central office rents to stabilize by 2026, although other areas may continue to decline [1][12]. Summary by Sections Mainland China Real Estate Market - The rental market is experiencing increased demand, but oversupply remains a critical issue, particularly in first-tier cities where the rent-to-sale ratio is low [1][3]. - The introduction of a large number of affordable housing units is expected to pressure the commercial housing market [1][3]. - The cancellation of the pre-sale system could lead to a decrease in overall project numbers, despite potential growth in high-end luxury demand [1][3]. Hong Kong Real Estate Market - The high-end retail sector in Hong Kong is showing signs of recovery, influenced by macroeconomic factors such as stock market performance and gold price increases [1][5][6]. - The residential rental market has seen consistent growth, attributed to government policies attracting skilled talent [1][9]. - The office market is expected to see increased demand, particularly in Central, while other regions may face continued rental declines [1][12]. Commercial Real Estate Outlook - The outlook for commercial real estate in both mainland China and Hong Kong varies, with opportunities arising from the recovery of high-end retail and the rise of domestic brands [1][6]. - The anticipated reduction in shopping center supply in mainland China is expected to enhance the bargaining power of existing malls, potentially increasing rental income [1][4][6]. - In Hong Kong, the retail sector faces challenges from domestic brand competition, tax policies, and e-commerce impacts, despite short-term improvements in high-end retail [1][13].

Core Viewpoint - New City Holdings has experienced a significant decline in contract sales and revenue due to the ongoing shrinkage of its real estate development business, leading to a strategic shift towards commercial operations [1][2][4]. Sales Performance - From January to October, New City Holdings reported a cumulative contract sales amount of 16.468 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 52.2%, with a total sales area of 2.1506 million square meters [1]. - In October alone, the company achieved contract sales of approximately 1.419 billion yuan, with a sales area of about 191,500 square meters [1]. - The total sales for the "golden September and silver October" period were less than 3 billion yuan, placing the company 41st in the rankings of real estate companies by sales in the first ten months [1]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters, New City Holdings reported operating revenue of 34.371 billion yuan, down 33.3% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 974 million yuan, a decrease of 33.05% [2]. - The decline in revenue and profit is primarily attributed to reduced delivery income from real estate projects and a drop in gross profit margins [2]. Commercial Operations - In response to the shrinking residential business, New City Holdings has shifted its focus to commercial operations, achieving a total commercial operating revenue of approximately 1.186 billion yuan in October, a year-on-year increase of 7.65% [2][3]. - Cumulatively, the commercial operating revenue from January to October reached 11.696 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.49% [2]. Strategic Shift - The company has decided to separate cash flow management for commercial operations and development projects, with a focus on commercial business as a foundational element for future growth [4]. - Currently, real estate development accounts for about two-thirds of revenue, while commercial operations make up one-third, indicating ongoing pressure on future revenue due to the contraction in real estate development [4]. Debt Management - New City Holdings has faced increasing debt repayment pressure, issuing high-interest bonds to ensure full repayment of maturing debts [5][6]. - The company issued three rounds of high-interest bonds at a rate of 11.88% to address upcoming debt obligations, including a $250 million overseas bond due in October and a 2 billion yuan medium-term note due in December [6]. Investor Communication - During a recent earnings call, the chairman emphasized the company's commitment to maintaining positive operating cash flow and leveraging policy support to optimize financing structures and costs [7]. - Concerns were raised by investors regarding high accounts payable and potential audit issues, to which the chairman assured that the company has considered various factors in assessing its ongoing viability and does not foresee delisting risks [7].