外汇交易的真谛不在于战胜市场，而在于通过掌控自我情绪来达成长期稳定的回报。只要能够识别情绪 反应并做出适当应对，投资者就已踏上了通往成功交易的坦途。作为您信赖的合作伙伴，RadexMarkets 瑞德克斯将持续提供专业的市场洞察，助力每位交易员在复杂多变的汇市中磨炼心智，最终实现稳健的 投资目标。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：陈平 2月4日，在外汇交易的博弈中，技术并非唯一的胜负手。RadexMarkets瑞德克斯认为，外汇交易本质上 是 20% 的策略与 80% 的心理学集合体。市场本身具有中立性，它并不在意交易者的个人身份、从业时 长或对胜利的渴望程度，其真正的奖励规则往往倾向于那些具备高度纪律、耐心以及情绪管控能力的投 资者。对于人类而言，情绪在决策中扮演着不可忽视的角色，要在波动剧烈的汇市中保持绝对的冷静是 一项极大的挑战。 2月4日，在外汇交易的博弈中，技术并非唯一的胜负手。RadexMarkets瑞德克斯认为，外汇交易本质上 是 20% 的策略与 80% 的心理学集合体。市场本身具有中立性，它并不在意交易者的个人身份、从业时 长或对胜利的渴望程度，其真正的奖励规则往往倾向于那 ...

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market has not continued its strong performance as expected by bulls, with Bitcoin experiencing significant volatility and dropping below the $78,000 mark, marking its lowest level since April of the previous year [1][2]. Market Conditions - The market appears extremely fragile due to the diminishing growth benefits from early corporate demand and a lack of fresh buying support, leading to a decline triggered by profit-taking and liquidity scarcity [1][2]. - The current downward movement may indicate the collapse of the "false prosperity" that previously supported bullish sentiment, suggesting that the recent decline could be just the beginning [1][2]. Technical Analysis - Bitcoin has entered a correction phase characterized by sideways trading since late October of the previous year, with the notion of a return to peak levels being viewed as blind optimism by investors [3]. - Key technical indicators, such as the monthly MACD, showed a bearish crossover in November, and the 21 and 55-period exponential moving averages (EMA) have recently entered a bearish zone [3]. - The annual closing for 2025 displayed a "shooting star" pattern, which is typically interpreted as a signal for a mid-term trend reversal [3]. Options Market Insights - Defensive positioning in the options market further corroborates market concerns, with the nominal open interest value of put options at a strike price of $75,000 on the Deribit platform soaring to $1.159 billion, nearly equal to that of call options at $100,000 [4]. - This indicates that traders are significantly hedging against downside risks rather than speculating on higher price levels [4]. - The current deep washout in Bitcoin is seen as a necessary process to clear excessive leverage, with potential for prices to further dip into the $50,000 to $60,000 range in the short term [4]. - However, this level of adjustment does not signify the end of the crypto cycle; rather, it may provide a more cost-effective value opportunity for long-term investors after the leverage bubble is cleared [4].

Core Insights - China's foreign exchange market achieved a remarkable milestone in 2025, with a total transaction volume surpassing 300 trillion yuan, reaching 304.57 trillion yuan (approximately 42.64 trillion USD), showcasing strong market vitality and depth [1] Group 1: Market Performance - In December 2025, the total transaction volume in the foreign exchange market was 28.17 trillion yuan (approximately 3.99 trillion USD), marking a strong conclusion to the year [3] - The derivatives market performed exceptionally well in December, with a cumulative transaction volume of 17.73 trillion yuan, accounting for over 60% of the total monthly transaction volume [3] - The spot market recorded a transaction volume of 10.44 trillion yuan, indicating a significant shift towards risk management tools among enterprises and financial institutions [3] Group 2: Market Structure and Participants - The interbank market remained the dominant trading force, with a transaction volume of 23.39 trillion yuan in December, representing 83% of the total market volume [3] - The bank-to-customer market had a transaction volume of 4.78 trillion yuan, reflecting the real foreign exchange supply and demand from the实体经济 [3] Group 3: Driving Forces Behind Growth - The resilience of China's foreign trade supported the increase in foreign exchange transaction volume under real demand [5] - The attractiveness of RMB assets remained strong, with active cross-border capital flows contributing to foreign exchange buying and selling demand [5] - Regulatory authorities continued to promote the dual opening of financial markets, facilitating greater participation from foreign investors in the domestic foreign exchange market [5]

Price Performance - London Gold's latest price is $5405.00, with a change of $98.05 [1] - London Silver's latest price is $118.45, with a change of $5.65 [1] - London Platinum's latest price is $2671.00, with a change of $21.00 [1] - London Palladium's latest price is $2014.00, with a change of $34.00 [1] - WTI Crude's latest price is $63.21, with no change [1] - LME Copper's latest price is $13913.50, with a change of $727.50 [1] - The latest dollar index is 96.16, with a change of -0.19 [1] - The latest euro - to - dollar exchange rate is 1.20, with no change [1] - The latest pound - to - dollar exchange rate is 1.38, with no change [1] - The latest dollar - to - yen exchange rate is 153.15, with a change of -0.16 [1] - The latest yield of US 10 - year TIPS is 1.90, with no change [1] Trading Data - COMEX silver inventory is 12698.10, with a change of -106.72 [1] - SHFE silver inventory is 482.01, with a change of -26.36 [1] - Gold ETF holdings are 1086.53, with a change of -3.43 [1] - Silver ETF holdings are 15523.36, with a change of -112.76 [1] - SGE silver inventory is 612.09, with no change [1] - The SGE gold deferred - fee payment direction has a change of 1.00 [1] - The SGE silver deferred - fee payment direction has no change [1]

Price Performance - The latest price of London Gold is 5277.80, with a change of 213.55 [1] - The latest price of London Platinum is 2650.00, with a change of -161.00 [1] - The latest price of London Palladium is 1980.00, with a change of -112.00 [1] - The latest price of WTI Crude Oil is 63.21, with a change of 0.82 [1] - The latest price of LME Copper is 13186.00, with a change of 72.00 [1] - The latest price of the US Dollar Index is 96.35, with a change of 0.58 [1] - The latest price of EUR/USD is 1.19, with a change of -0.01 [1] - The latest price of GBP/USD is 1.38, with a change of -0.00 [1] - The latest price of USD/JPY is 153.31, with a change of 1.12 [1] Trading Data - The latest COMEX silver inventory is 12804.82, with a change of -107.67 [1] - The latest SHFE silver inventory is 508.37, with a change of -35.87 [1] - The latest gold ETF holdings are 1089.96, with a change of 2.58 [1] - The latest silver ETF holdings are 15636.12, with a change of -211.42 [1] - The latest SGE silver deferred fee payment direction change is -1.00 [1] - The latest SGE gold deferred fee payment direction is 1 [1] - The latest SGE silver deferred fee payment direction is 2 [1]

美国财政部的一句话，正在削弱日元最后一道"心理防线"。 据追风交易台，野村在最新外汇策略报告中指出，美国财政部长贝森特公开否认美方正在进行外汇干预，等于间接拆掉了此前压在美元/日元上的"干预预期 锚"，令市场在做空日元时，少了一层顾忌。 从市场反应看，这一表态并非象征性。1月28日贝森特在CNBC直言"Absolutely not"之后，美元/日元迅速反弹，从152.7附近拉升至153.8一线，几乎抹去此前 因"纽约联储查价"传闻引发的跌幅。 真正被击穿的，并不是点位，而是"干预预期" 此前一周，美元/日元从160附近快速回落，很大程度并非基本面逆转，而是市场高度警惕两件事： 美方是否已通过纽约联储"查价"，为联合干预铺路 日本财务省（MOF）是否已悄然入场买入日元 另一条防线来自日本自身。 但野村强调，贝森特的表态实质上弱化了第一条假设。即便纽约联储确实进行过查价，那也只是流程性动作，并不等同于已经、或即将干预。 结果是：美元/日元的"政策风险溢价"被迅速压缩，做空日元重新变成一笔"性价比更高"的交易。 日本是否已经干预？数据给出的答案是：证据不足 野村通过日本央行每日资金账户数据估算发现，在美元/日元大幅 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese monetary authorities are leveraging rare support measures from the U.S. to combat yen depreciation, employing strategic silence and cautious communication to promote significant yen appreciation without large-scale market interventions [1][4]. Group 1: Strategy and Execution - The strategy is primarily executed by Jun Mimura, Japan's Chief Foreign Exchange Diplomat, whose limited public statements serve as a policy signal [1][4]. - Mimura's approach involves controlling the rhythm of his statements, leading speculators to continuously speculate on potential market interventions by the Japanese government [1][4]. - The strategy has reportedly led to a decline in the USD/JPY exchange rate by approximately 7 yen, demonstrating remarkable efficiency [1][4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and U.S. Involvement - Since the weekend, the yen has experienced three significant appreciations, with the most notable fluctuations occurring after news of unusual interest rate checks by the New York Federal Reserve, raising investor awareness of a potential joint market intervention by the U.S. and Japan for the first time in 15 years [1][4]. - Despite U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessenet denying any intervention to support the yen, former Japanese monetary officials view U.S. involvement in interest rate checks as a significant breakthrough, reinforcing the perception of a unified stance between the U.S. and Japan against yen depreciation [5][6]. Group 3: Communication and Market Perception - The Japanese government maintains deliberate silence regarding daily market fluctuations, only stating that it is closely coordinating with U.S. authorities, which fuels market speculation and uncertainty [2][5]. - Jun Mimura, set to become Japan's Vice Minister of International Affairs in 2024, has acknowledged that both silence and direct statements are valid communication strategies [2][5]. Group 4: Economic Factors and Limitations - The sustainability of yen appreciation ultimately depends on fundamental factors, particularly the Bank of Japan's policy direction and the fiscal trajectory of the new government post-February elections [3][6]. - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates to 0.75%, a 30-year high, but this has not effectively curbed yen depreciation, as the market perceives the central bank's actions as lagging in addressing inflation [3][6]. - Analysts suggest that if Prime Minister Fumio Kishida wins the upcoming elections, it may embolden inflationist advisors, potentially intensifying opposition to interest rate hikes [7].

Group 1 - The Japanese yen experienced a significant drop last week, followed by an unexpected surge this week, with the exchange rate nearing 160 yen per dollar on the 23rd and rising to the 152 yen per dollar range by the 28th [1] - The decline in the yen's value was attributed to concerns over Japan's fiscal situation following Prime Minister Kishi's announcement of early elections, leading to a sell-off in Japanese government bonds and a spike in bond yields [1] - The Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting did not provide any supportive signals for the market, resulting in a further decline in the yen's value [1] Group 2 - The volatility in the Japanese financial market has drawn the attention of U.S. authorities, with U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen expressing concerns over the impact of Japanese bond sales on U.S. bonds [2] - Analysts suggest that U.S. and Japanese financial authorities may have collaborated to intervene in the currency market, leading to the yen's recent appreciation [2] - Reports indicate that the Federal Reserve conducted a currency inquiry, which is seen as a strong signal of market intervention, contributing to the yen's rise [2] Group 3 - Some market analysts believe that the crisis in the Japanese financial market is not over, with ongoing concerns about the potential "Kishi shock" due to aggressive fiscal policies [3] - The Japanese government's debt-to-GDP ratio has reached 240%, raising fears that tax cuts and increased spending will exacerbate the debt burden and further devalue the yen [3] - There are comparisons being made to the "Truss shock" in the UK, with warnings that the impact of Kishi's fiscal policies could be even more severe for Japan [3]

Core Viewpoint - The potential for extreme financial turmoil exists as the strategy to address trade imbalances may lead to distortions in other areas of the global economy, particularly with the recent significant shifts in the foreign exchange market, including a drop in the dollar index to a four-year low and a notable rise in the yen [1] Group 1: Market Reactions and Predictions - As the February 8 election approaches, concerns are rising about the return of "high market trading," with the yen facing potential downward pressure despite recent gains [3] - The dollar to yen exchange rate was reported at 152.69, a significant drop from approximately 160 the previous week, indicating a shift in market sentiment [3] - Analysts predict that if the election consolidates the current administration's power, it may lead to further economic stimulus measures and a resurgence of "high market trading" strategies [3] Group 2: Economic Policies and Implications - High market trading strategies involve going long on Japanese stocks, shorting the yen, and betting on rising Japanese bond yields [3] - The Japanese government's proposed tax cuts, estimated to cost around 5 trillion yen (approximately 32 billion USD) annually, raise concerns about fiscal discipline regardless of the election outcome [3] - The Bank of Japan's decision to maintain interest rates may face pressure to delay rate hikes, potentially exacerbating yen depreciation [4] Group 3: Currency Intervention Speculations - Market participants are closely monitoring the possibility of coordinated intervention by the US and Japan in the foreign exchange market, following a recent "currency check" by the US Treasury [5] - The US Treasury has a foreign exchange stabilization fund of approximately 200 billion USD, which could be utilized to influence the yen's value if necessary [6] - Analysts suggest that even without actual intervention, signals of potential action could lead to a rapid unwinding of short positions on the yen [6] Group 4: Broader Economic Concerns - Trump's recent comments on the dollar's value being "very good" have been interpreted as tacit approval of a weaker dollar, which could influence market dynamics [7] - The expectation of government intervention is already priced into the yen's exchange rate, and failure to act could lead to renewed weakness in the yen [7] - The strategy of potentially allowing the dollar to depreciate against major trading partners may help reduce trade imbalances but could also trigger severe financial instability [7]

Core Insights - The article outlines the liquidity, participants, and driving logic of the global foreign exchange market across different trading sessions, emphasizing the principle of "trading local currency in local time" and identifying suitable currency pairs for each session [1][2][3][4][5][6] Asian Session (9:00-15:00) - Core drivers include economic data from Japan, Australia, and New Zealand, as well as capital flows in the Asia-Pacific region and central bank interventions, particularly from the Bank of Japan [1] - Suitable currency pairs are primarily Japanese and Australian/New Zealand currencies, with main pairs being USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, and GBP/JPY, and secondary pairs including AUD/USD and NZD/USD [1] - Trading characteristics show lower overall liquidity and narrower volatility, with Japanese cross pairs influenced by Japan's fundamentals and risk sentiment [1] Overlap of Asian and European Sessions (15:00-18:00) - Core drivers consist of European funds entering the market and initial data from the Eurozone, along with European Central Bank communications [2] - Suitable currency pairs are mainly European currencies, with primary pairs being EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and EUR/GBP, and secondary pairs including EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY [2] - Trading characteristics indicate a rapid increase in liquidity, with European currencies starting to trend, making it suitable for capturing trend initiation points [2] European Independent Session (18:00-20:00) - Core drivers include the London trading period, significant data from the Eurozone and the UK, and operations by major European institutional funds [3] - Suitable currency pairs are purely European, with main pairs being EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and EUR/GBP, and secondary pairs including USD/CHF [3] - Trading characteristics reveal medium to high liquidity, with clear volatility patterns driven directly by European fundamentals [3] Overlap of European and American Sessions (20:00-24:00) - Core drivers involve global funds entering the market, significant U.S. data releases, and competition between major institutions, marking the peak of global liquidity [4] - Suitable currency pairs include all major currency pairs, with a focus on dollar-based pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY [4] - Trading characteristics show the most intense volatility and strongest trends, making it ideal for swing and trend trading [4] American Independent Session (24:00-2:00) - Core drivers consist of the New York closing funds, secondary U.S. data releases, and fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields [5] - Suitable currency pairs are primarily dollar-based, with main pairs being USD/JPY, AUD/USD, and NZD/USD, and secondary pairs including EUR/USD and GBP/USD [5] - Trading characteristics indicate a gradual decrease in liquidity, with volatility narrowing compared to overlapping periods, focusing on trend continuation or slight pullbacks in dollar-based currencies [5] Summary - The more focused a trading session is on local economies, the more direct the driving factors and purer the volatility for corresponding currency pairs [6] - The overlap between European and American sessions is the only time to trade all categories of currency pairs, making it the best window for trend trading [6] - Non-overlapping single sessions should prioritize trading local currency pairs to avoid trading pairs driven by non-local factors, which can lead to low volatility and false breakouts [6]