1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Although the unexpected reduction of Sino-US tariffs is beneficial to the recovery of China's textile and clothing export market, the current industrial performance shows limited order increments. During the off - season of demand, the driving force for cotton price rebound is still insufficient, and cotton prices will continue to face downward pressure. Attention should be paid to abnormal weather in cotton - producing areas and the progress of US foreign tariff negotiations [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Cotton Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategies - **Price Range Forecast**: The monthly cotton price is predicted to be in the range of 12,800 - 13,700, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.1172 and a current volatility historical percentile (3 - year) of 0.279 [3] - **Inventory Management Strategies** - When inventory is high and there are concerns about cotton price drops, sell 50% of CF2509 Zhengzhou cotton futures in the range of 13,600 - 13,800 to lock in profits and make up for production costs. Also, sell 75% of CF509C13800 call options in the range of 200 - 250 to collect premiums and lock in the spot selling price if cotton prices rise [3] - **Procurement Management Strategies** - When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, buy 50% of CF2509 Zhengzhou cotton futures in the range of 12,600 - 12,800 to lock in procurement costs. Sell 75% of CF509P12800 put options in the range of 150 - 200 to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price if cotton prices fall [3] 3.2 Core Contradictions and Market Influencing Factors - **Likely Positive Factors** - In the 24/25 season, cotton in northern Xinjiang has high impurity content, leading to a shortage of high - quality resources. Most of the remaining cotton is held by large ginning enterprises and traders, resulting in a strong cotton basis. - Downstream gauze factories have a high overall operating load and have a rigid demand for restocking [5] - **Likely Negative Factors** - The processing cost of new cotton in northern Xinjiang in the 24/25 season is mostly around 15,000 yuan/ton, and some new cotton has not been hedged. - It is the traditional off - season for the downstream market. The export order increment brought by the reduction of Sino - US tariffs is limited, downstream sales are slow, and there is a strong wait - and - see sentiment due to frequent policy changes [6] 3.3 Cotton and Cotton Yarn Futures Prices - **Futures Prices and Changes** - Cotton 01 closed at 13,385, down 50 (-0.37%); Cotton 05 closed at 13,385, down 60 (-0.45%); Cotton 09 closed at 13,330, down 55 (-0.41%); Cotton yarn 01 closed at 0, down 0 (-100%); Cotton yarn 05 closed at 0, down 0 (-100%); Cotton yarn 09 closed at 19,530, down 55 (-0.28%) [7][8] - **Price Spreads** - Cotton basis was 1,265, up 44; Cotton 01 - 05 spread was 0, up 10; Cotton 05 - 09 spread was 55, down 5; Cotton 09 - 01 spread was - 55, down 5; Cotton - yarn spread was 6,200, down 10; Domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1,111, down 90; Domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 695, down 30 [8] 3.4 Internal and External Cotton Price Indexes - CCI 3128B was priced at 14,595, down 11 (-0.08%); CCI 2227B was priced at 12,773, down 5 (-0.04%); CCI 2129B was priced at 14,871, down 13 (-0.09%); FCI Index S was priced at 13,670, unchanged; FCI Index M was priced at 13,495, unchanged; FCI Index L was priced at 13,304, unchanged [9]

Group 1: Sugar Market Dynamics - As of April 30, 2025, Hainan has cumulatively sold 15,200 tons of sugar, with sales of 5,400 tons this month, a decrease of 24,800 tons compared to the same period last season [1] - The sales-to-production ratio is 27.59%, down by 26.17 percentage points [1] - The sales tax-inclusive factory price ranges from 5,431 to 6,547 RMB per ton, with sugar inventory at 39,900 tons, an increase of 550 tons compared to the same period last season [1] Group 2: Cotton Market Dynamics - ICE cotton prices fell by 0.63%, closing at 67.4 cents per pound, while CF509 rose by 0.9%, closing at 12,900 RMB per ton [1] - The main contract positions decreased by 10,843 lots to 576,600 lots [1] - The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang is 13,839 RMB per ton, down by 7 RMB from the previous day, and the China Cotton Price Index 3128B is at 14,113 RMB per ton, down by 70 RMB from the previous day [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The Federal Reserve's May meeting maintained the current interest rate, leading to a slight adjustment in the market's June rate cut expectations, which has put pressure on cotton prices [1] - Domestic cotton futures prices have slightly increased due to positive macroeconomic news, boosting market sentiment [1] - The fundamental drivers remain relatively weak, with attention on upcoming weather changes, and short-term expectations indicate continued range-bound trading [1]

【导语】3月进入传统需求旺季，市场行情也进入由需求驱动的关键期，上半月下游新增订单不及预期，棉纱成交不活跃，棉纺企业对棉花采购持谨慎态度，棉价上涨动能不足，呈现低位震荡走 3月棉花现货价格低位震荡，月均价下跌 3月国内棉花价格波动有限。月初因关税贸易纷争升级，棉价震荡下跌。其中3月3日美国再度对所有中国输美商品加征10%关税，而后中国对原产于美国的棉花加征15%关税，贸易壁垒升级，市 棉花需求不足，利空棉花价格 卓创资讯棉花市场分析师陈彩娟 终端需求不佳，下游织造企业、贸易企业囤货意愿不高，3月纺企新增订单跟进不足，且以小单为主，棉纱成交偏淡，旺季中棉纱库存有所上升，棉纱出货压力比较大，价格难涨，加工利润微薄 国内棉花供应宽松 卓创资讯："金三"需求成色不佳棉价低位震荡 中美互加关税之后，美棉进口成本将明显增加，价格劣势将影响中国进口美棉数量，美棉出口将面临挑战，利空美棉价格，从而给国内棉花市场带来一定压力。但由于中美棉花贸易量将减少，美 综上所述，纱厂新接订单较少，采购棉花较谨慎，3月上旬现货棉花价格有所回调。旺季棉花需求不及预期、供应端偏宽松、美棉销售承压以及新年度棉花种植面积存在增长预期，短期棉花市场 ...