Core Insights - The total cotton inventory in Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone is 33,400 tons as of November 10, 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 0.41% [1] - The bonded cotton inventory is 31,100 tons, showing a year-on-year decrease of 0.42% [1] - The non-bonded cotton inventory stands at 2,200 tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.08% [1] Inventory Breakdown - Total cotton inventory: 33,400 tons, down 0.41% year-on-year [1] - Bonded cotton inventory: 31,100 tons, down 0.42% year-on-year [1] - Non-bonded cotton inventory: 2,200 tons, down 0.08% year-on-year [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, against the backdrop of a slight decline in spot prices, the price of the cotton CF2601 contract is likely to show a weak and oscillating trend [15] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract行情**: On November 6, 2025, the main contract CF2601 of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's cotton futures opened at 13,600 yuan/ton, with an intraday high of 13,630 yuan/ton and a low of 13,555 yuan/ton, closing at 13,605 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton or 0.52% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 178,288 lots, and the open interest decreased by 1,553 lots to 579,138 lots [2] - **Variety price**: All 6 cotton futures contracts closed higher, and the variety's open interest was 944,677 lots, an increase of 1,307 lots from the previous trading day [5] - **Associated行情**: On the same day, the trading volume of cotton options reached 92,555 lots, and the total open interest was 497,857 lots, an increase of 4,327 lots from the previous trading day [7] 3.2 Spot Market - **Spot price tracking**: On November 6, the average arrival price of imported cotton was 74.07 cents/pound, unchanged from November 5. After conversion, the import cost was 12,763 yuan/ton under 1% tariff and 13,748 yuan/ton under sliding - scale duty [10] - **Registered warehouse receipts**: The cotton warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange totaled 2,769 on the day, an increase of 17 from the previous trading day [11] 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Important events**: According to China Cotton Net, about one - third of textile and clothing exporters in India reported a more than 50% plunge in their turnover in the US market due to tariff policies. Around 85% of enterprises faced inventory overstock, and over 80% encountered a 3 - 6 - month extension of the credit cycle, resulting in "severe pressure on liquidity." Two - thirds of exporters had to offer up to 25% discounts to remain competitive in the US market [12] - **Industry information**: The domestic CC Index 3128B closed at 14,795 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton from November 5. The arrival price of Xinjiang cotton at Shandong warehouses (grade 3128B) was 14,890 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from November 5. The National Cotton Basis Index CNCottonJ (CF2601) was reported at 960 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from November 5 [13]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2) Core Viewpoints The current cotton market has a limited change in the pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the short - term. High supply significantly suppresses the market. As cotton procurement nears completion, short - term marginal drivers weaken, reducing volatility. The enthusiasm for capital speculation is low, but the short - selling sentiment of leading institutions has cooled. Downstream textile enterprises' profits and cash flow have not deteriorated after more than two months of tortuous recovery, and there is still sales resilience in the domestic market, which may maintain the rigid demand for raw materials in the future. With weak import expectations, it is expected to shrink the supply - demand gap in the medium - to - long - term. Currently, the market price is near the hedging pressure level, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. It is recommended to pay attention to the callback opportunities during the transmission of supply pressure or sell put options at the bottom, and also pay attention to short - term reverse arbitrage opportunities. The reference range is 13330 - 13830 [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macroeconomic Factors - **International**: Baysant said that the China - US trade agreement might be signed as early as next week, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry responded that China is willing to implement the important consensus of the two heads of state with the US. As of November 4 (US Eastern Time), the US Senate failed to pass the federal government's temporary appropriation bill again, and the US federal government's "shutdown" entered the 35th day, tying the longest "shutdown" record in US history [3]. - **Domestic**: Not mentioned in the provided content. Supply Factors - **International**: In the US, new cotton is being harvested, with 730,000 tons of new cotton inspected, accounting for about 25% of the total. Precipitation in major cotton - growing areas decreased in early November, which is beneficial for harvesting. In India, the daily listing volume of new cotton is about 14,000 tons, and it is expected that precipitation in cotton - growing areas will decrease in January, which is expected to accelerate procurement under the Minimum Support Price (MSP). In Pakistan, as of the end of October, the listing volume of new cotton was 688,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3%. In Brazil, the cotton processing progress in 2025 was 63.67%, slower than last year [3]. - **Domestic**: It is expected that cotton procurement in Xinjiang will end in mid - to - early November. The inspection progress is faster than the same period, and the sales progress is still relatively fast. The quality of new cotton in northern Xinjiang is not as expected, and ginneries have become more cautious in procurement. It is estimated that in the 2025/26 season, the ginned cotton cost of high - cost ginneries is about 14,700 - 15,000 yuan/ton (under official standards), while low - cost ginneries can control it within 14,600 yuan/ton. Low - cost ginneries can make a small profit by selling at the current price [3]. - **Picking and Processing Progress**: The national new cotton picking progress reached 87.1%, the delivery progress was 90.4%, the processing progress was 39.4%, and the national new cotton inspection volume exceeded 2.25 million tons; the sales progress was 14.2%, 5.8% faster than the same period [17]. - **Cost**: The national average purchase price of seed cotton has rebounded steadily. The average price of new - season ginned cotton has increased to 14,500 yuan/ton. It is estimated that in the 2025/26 season, the ginned cotton cost of high - cost ginneries is about 14,700 - 15,000 yuan/ton (under official standards), while low - cost ginneries can control it within 14,600 yuan/ton [17]. - **Inventory**: The national commercial cotton inventory increased by 521,700 tons week - on - week to 2.8478 million tons, lower than the same period by 278,800 tons; the Xinjiang commercial inventory increased to 1.839 million tons, higher than the same period by 269,600 tons; the commercial inventory in major inland provinces increased to 165,200 tons, lower than the same period by 14,300 tons. The inventory of finished products such as pure - cotton yarn, terminal grey fabric, and polyester - cotton yarn decreased [19]. - **Imports**: In September 2025, China imported about 100,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of about 18.7%; from January to September 2025, China imported about 680,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of about 69.8%. In September 2025, China imported about 127,700 tons of cotton yarn, a month - on - month decrease of 3.21% and a year - on - year increase of 15.02%. From January to September, the total import volume of cotton yarn was about 1.0366 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.44% [22]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: Affected by the improvement of warehouse receipt premiums and the firmness of the market, the number of warehouse receipts has increased [3]. Demand Factors - **International**: In the US, clothing retail and wholesale sales continued to grow in August, and consumer confidence continued to recover in October. In Vietnam, clothing and textile exports decreased month - on - month in October and were lower than the same period. In the EU, the consumer confidence index continued to recover in October, but the growth rate of clothing imports decreased significantly in August, and the import amount declined [3]. - **Domestic**: In November, the overall trading level in the downstream market was still average, with obvious market negotiation characteristics. The current market transactions are mainly concentrated in local low - basis resources and the rigid demand procurement of enterprises, with no obvious new orders. Enterprises mainly focus on pre - sales. This week, the operating rates of spinning and weaving enterprises changed little week - on - week, the repair of spinning profits slowed down, the trading volume in the downstream textile market decreased marginally and was the same as the same period; the prices of auxiliary materials in the Keqiao area continued to fall to a low level, and the improvement of the terminal volume - price trend was not good [3]. - **Operating Rates**: This week, the spinning mill operating rate decreased by 0.2% week - on - week to 65.6%, 6.3% lower than the same period; the weaving mill operating rate increased by 0.1% week - on - week to 37.6%, 10.1% lower than the same period [26]. - **Profits**: The immediate profit of the representative 32 - count yarn has remained stable at around - 900 yuan/ton recently, and the profit of textile enterprises in Xinjiang is about 600 yuan/ton. The cumulative year - on - year value of industry profits in September rebounded to - 18.5% [26]. - **Market Transactions**: This week, the 5 - day moving average of cotton cloth trading volume in the Textile City decreased by 28,000 meters week - on - week to 336,000 meters, the same as the same period. In Keqiao, the fabric price index increased by 0.07 to 110.86, and the auxiliary material price index decreased by 0.35 to 110.63 [28]. - **PMI**: In September, the PMI of the cotton textile industry increased by 1.57% month - on - month to 44.29%, 12.29% lower than the same period, and it has been below the boom - bust line for five consecutive months. In terms of demand, the new order PMI increased by 1.98% month - on - month to 48.72%, 9.44% lower than the same period; the operating rate PMI increased by 4.07% month - on - month to 41.03%, 17.13% lower than the same period. In terms of inventory, the cotton yarn inventory PMI increased by 7.5% month - on - month to 56.41%, 3.79% higher than the same period; the cotton inventory increased by 1.75% month - on - month to 41.3%, 3.79% higher than the same period [31]. - **Retail Sales**: In September, the total retail sales of enterprises in the clothing, footwear, hats, and knitted textiles categories above the designated size reached 123.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.7%, an increase from the 3.1% year - on - year growth rate in August; from January to September, the cumulative total retail sales of these enterprises were 1.0613 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.1% [33]. - **Exports**: In October, the export volume of textile and clothing was 22.26 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 12.6% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.8%; from January to October, the cumulative export volume was 243.94 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6%. Among them, the export volume of textiles was 11.26 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 9.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 5.9%; from January to October, the cumulative export volume was 117.74 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. The export volume of clothing was 11 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 16.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 11.6%; from January to October, the cumulative export volume was 126.2 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8% [36].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The international cotton market still faces downward pressure, with ongoing concerns about international trade tariffs but showing positive development. The supply of U.S. cotton is increasing, adding to the supply pressure. The market is waiting for macro - factors to boost demand [9]. - In the domestic cotton market, the harvest of domestic seed cotton is nearing completion, and the market has digested the high - cost situation. The demand side shows that the operating rate of downstream textile enterprises is lower than the same period last year and continues to decline. The industrial raw material inventory of cotton is decreasing, indicating low purchasing enthusiasm, and the digestion speed of yarn inventory is slow. Affected by inventory pressure, the price of Zhengzhou cotton futures is expected to be under pressure [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market行情概述 - **Important Information**: International news includes the ongoing U.S. government "shutdown", potential changes in USDA reports, progress in China - U.S. tariff trade consultations, and hearings on Trump's tariff policies. Domestic news shows new cotton listings, changes in seed cotton prices, import volume changes, and fluctuations in PMI and logistics indices [5]. - **Price Situation**: Futures and spot prices of cotton and related products mostly showed a downward or fluctuating and pressured trend this week. Cotton import profits are still relatively large, and the basis of cotton and yarn showed a trend of strengthening and then weakening [7]. - **Supply - Demand Factors**: Globally, cotton production and inventory are adjusted, and U.S. cotton weekly export net sales decline. Domestically, production is expected to increase slightly, commercial inventory decreases, import volume shows a downward trend, downstream operating rates decline slightly, and textile export volume decreases [8]. Spot Market Price and Spread - **Price Trend**: Spot cotton and yarn prices are slowly declining, while imported cotton prices are rising from a low level. The basis of cotton and yarn is slowly declining due to the high - level rebound of futures prices [14][20]. - **Internal and External Spreads**: Cotton import profits are still relatively large [23]. International Cotton Market Supply - Demand Data - **USDA Data**: In September, global cotton production was raised, and the ending inventory was lowered. The 10 - month data was not released due to the U.S. government shutdown [28]. - **Export Situation**: U.S. upland cotton exports decreased month - on - month [31]. Domestic Cotton Market Supply - Demand and Industry Data - **Supply - Demand Data**: In October, domestic cotton supply - demand data was not adjusted, and USDA did not release relevant data [35]. - **Inventory Situation**: Domestic cotton commercial inventory is accumulating, and port inventory is rising [38]. - **Import Situation**: Cotton imports increased month - on - month, but the overall import volume decreased [41]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of domestic textile enterprises decreased [44]. - **Inventory and Profit**: Textile enterprises have high yarn inventory, low raw material purchasing enthusiasm, and still face losses in processing profits [47]. - **Import and Export**: Cotton yarn imports did not increase significantly, and textile exports slowed down slightly [50]. Exchange Rate Trend This week, the U.S. dollar index rebounded from a low level, and the RMB exchange rate is still appreciating [54].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View - The cotton market currently has support below and pressure above. There is a continuous supply of new cotton, but yarn mills are actively replenishing their stocks. In the long - term, policies and weather are the key factors. The recommended strategies are to conduct reverse arbitrage on the January - May spread when prices are high and to lay out long positions for distant - month contracts when prices are low [4]. 3. Data Summary Domestic Cotton Futures - CF01 on November 4 was 13535, down 65 (-0.48%) from November 3; CF05 was 13555, down 60 (-0.44%); CF01 - 05 was -20, down 5 from the previous day [3]. Domestic Cotton Spot - In Xinjiang, the price on November 4 was 14640, down 16 (-0.11%); in Henan, it was 14890, down 18 (-0.12%); in Shandong, it was 14873, down 19 (-0.13%); Xinjiang - main continuous basis was 1105, up 49 [3]. Domestic Yarn Futures and Spot - Domestic yarn futures (CY) on November 4 was 19795, down 125 (-0.63%); domestic yarn spot C32S price index remained unchanged at 20520 [3]. US Cotton Spot - US cotton spot CT was 66 (USD/磅), unchanged; the arrival price was 75.50, up 0.2 (0.27%); 1% quota delivery price was 13209, up 34 (0.26%); sliding - scale duty delivery price was 14098, up 11 (0.08%) [3]. Spread Data - Yarn - cotton spread (futures) was 6260, down 60; yarn - cotton spread (spot) was 889, down 23; the spot internal - external spread was 1664, down 53 [3][4].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Cotton (Yarn) Market Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: October 24, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Wang Cuibing [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - This week, the price of the main Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract rose slightly, with a weekly increase of about 1.54%. The price of the US cotton December contract fell, with a weekly decline of about 0.56%. The price of the cotton yarn 2601 futures contract rose by about 1.75% [6][10][20] - In the domestic market, the supply side shows that Xinjiang cotton has entered the large - scale harvesting stage, with the progress over 50% and faster than the same period last year. The purchase price of seed cotton first fell and then rose, and the processing cost of ginning mills increased slightly. The acquisition of inland cotton was slow due to continuous rainfall. On the demand side, the demand of downstream textile enterprises was relatively weak, and the "Silver October" replenishment did not improve significantly. The impact of trade situation on the market needs to be concerned. Currently, new cotton is on the market, and the upside of cotton prices is limited in the short term due to hedging pressure [6] - It is recommended to wait and see for the Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract in the short term. Future trading should pay attention to changes in foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory [7] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of the main Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract rose slightly, with a weekly increase of about 1.54% [6] - **Market Outlook**: In the domestic market, the supply side has different situations in Xinjiang and inland. The demand side is weak. New cotton is on the market, and the short - term upside of cotton prices is limited [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see for the Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract in the short term [7] - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory [7] 2. Futures and Spot Market **Futures Market** - **Price Movement**: The price of the US cotton December contract fell by about 0.56% this week. The price of the Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract rose by about 1.54%, and the cotton yarn 2601 futures contract rose by about 1.75% [10][20] - **Net Positions**: As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 107,552 lots, and that in cotton yarn futures was - 16 lots [26] - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of this week, the number of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange cotton futures warehouse receipts was 2,503, and that of cotton yarn futures was 6 [32] **Spot Market** - **Cotton Spot Price**: As of October 24, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,803 yuan/ton [39] - **Cotton Yarn Spot Price**: As of October 24, 2025, the spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 20,500 yuan/ton, CY index: OEC10s (rotor - spun yarn) was 14,690 yuan/ton, and CY index: OEC10s (combed yarn) was 23,600 yuan/ton [48] - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Price**: As of October 23, the imported cotton price with sliding - scale duty was 13,980 yuan/ton, up 102 yuan/ton from last week; the imported cotton price with quota was 13,004 yuan/ton, up 153 yuan/ton from last week. The imported cotton yarn price index (FCY Index) for different varieties also had corresponding prices [54] - **Imported Cotton Profit**: As of October 23, the estimated profit of imported cotton with sliding - scale duty was 804 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton from last week; the estimated profit of imported cotton with quota was 1,780 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton from last week [57] - **Price Spreads**: This week, the price spread between Zhengzhou cotton 1 - 5 contracts was 0 yuan/ton, and the price spread between cotton 3128B and cotton yarn C32S was 5,697 yuan/ton. The basis between the cotton 3128B price index and the Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract was + 1,263 yuan/ton; the basis between the cotton yarn C32S spot price and the cotton yarn 2601 futures contract was 690 yuan/ton [35][44] 3. Industry Situation **Supply Side** - **Commercial Cotton Inventory**: As of September 30, 2025, the national commercial cotton inventory was 1.0217 million tons. At the end of August, the cotton industrial inventory of cotton textile enterprises decreased slightly, with an inventory of 892,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons from the previous month [62] - **Imported Cotton Volume**: In September 2025, China's total cotton import volume was about 100,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 20,000 tons or 16.6%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative imported cotton volume was 690,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.57 million tons or 69.50%. In September 2025, China imported 130,000 tons of cotton yarn, the same as the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 20,000 tons [68] **Demand Side** - **Yarn and Grey Cloth Inventory**: As of the end of August, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 26.6 days, a decrease of 1.1 days from the previous month; the grey cloth inventory was 33.9 days, a decrease of 2.3 days from the previous month [71] - **Textile and Garment Exports**: In September 2025, China's textile and garment export volume was 24.4197 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.50% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.99%. Among them, textile exports were 11.966 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 6.41% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.44%; clothing exports were 12.453 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 7.97% and a month - on - month decrease of 11.96% [76] - **Domestic Garment Retail Sales**: As of August 31, 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing were 670.83 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 11.95%, and the cumulative year - on - year increase was 2.2% [80] 4. Options and Stock Market - Related Market - **Options Market**: The implied volatility of at - the - money cotton options this week was presented, but no specific data was given [81] - **Stock Market**: The price - earnings ratio trend of Xinong Development was shown, but no specific analysis was provided [84]

Core Insights - The integration of futures markets into the cotton industry is transforming traditional agriculture into a modern financial ecosystem, enhancing risk management and accelerating industrial upgrades [1][8]. Group 1: Company Overview - Xinjiang Guannong Co., Ltd. (Guannong) has established a robust production network with an annual processing capacity of 130,000 tons of cotton, supported by 13 ginning factories and 14 production lines [2]. - Guannong's logistics hub, Guannong Huijin, has become a "super warehouse" with a storage capacity of 1.1 million tons, ranking first in both cotton storage and futures delivery in China in 2023 [2][8]. Group 2: Risk Management Strategies - Guannong has developed a comprehensive hedging system across the entire supply chain, utilizing futures contracts to protect against price volatility and employing innovative tools like basis trading and options to manage risks effectively [4][6]. - The company successfully hedged 143,000 tons of cotton in 2024, demonstrating the effectiveness of its risk management strategies in maintaining profit margins despite market fluctuations [4]. Group 3: Industry Innovations - The introduction of basis trading has allowed for more flexible pricing mechanisms, enabling buyers to choose futures prices based on market conditions, thus enhancing trading activity [7]. - The collaboration between Guannong and Heze Hongyi Industrial Development Co., Ltd. (Hongyi) showcases the importance of standardized systems in managing risks and facilitating efficient futures transactions in the cotton market [6][8]. Group 4: Future Developments - Guannong plans to expand its service platform to integrate delivery, trading, and supply chain finance, aiming to enhance the scale of warehouse receipt pledges and explore new models for industry integration [7]. - The ongoing reforms in the futures market, including adjustments to delivery standards and the introduction of new hedging tools, are expected to strengthen the position of Xinjiang's cotton industry [8].

Core Insights - The cotton industry is crucial for national economy and livelihood, requiring a comprehensive approach to develop a high-quality industry chain [1][4] - China's cotton production is expected to reach its highest level since 2013 by 2025 due to favorable weather and effective management practices [1] - The cotton industry has undergone significant market reforms since 1998, leading to a well-integrated domestic and international market [2] Industry Development - The cotton industry faces challenges such as inconsistent quality, lack of strong brands, and the need for upgraded machinery [2] - Xinjiang accounts for 90% of China's cotton production, with yields significantly higher than the global average due to technological advancements [2] - The cotton supply chain is tightly linked, with prices influenced by various factors including climate and trade volumes [2] Quality Improvement - Future development of the cotton industry will focus on quality over quantity, emphasizing branding, standardization, and smart technology [3] - New policies introduced in April 2023 prioritize quality in cotton production, indicating a shift towards quality-driven practices [3] - Establishing a mechanism that connects the interests of cotton growers and processing enterprises is essential for improving cotton quality [3] Comprehensive Strategy - A full industry chain model is necessary for high-quality development, including research innovation, quality planting models, and regional branding [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for cotton is "Bearish" [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industry has a strong consensus on a bearish outlook for the future. In the fourth quarter, with the large - scale listing of new cotton, supply pressure and market sentiment will be concentratedly released. The futures price may fall below 13,000 yuan/ton, with the low point possibly occurring in November. After the release of negative factors, downstream restocking will help stabilize the market. In the long - term, the fourth quarter may be the period with the greatest domestic pressure, and the market in the next year is generally cautiously optimistic [5][30][36] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Research Purpose - To understand the production, cost, acquisition, consumption, inventory, and industry sentiment of cotton in Xinjiang, the researcher participated in the "2025 Autumn Xinjiang Cotton 'Full - industry Chain + Full - domain' In - depth Research" from September 7th to 19th. The research objects included cotton farmers, ginning factories, textile enterprises, and warehousing and logistics enterprises, mainly through enterprise discussions and on - site field inspections [14] 3.2 Research Summary - **New cotton production increase**: The expectation of new cotton production increase is strong, and the production forecast has been raised. The estimated production of Xinjiang cotton this year is between 730 - 780 tons, with a high probability of reaching 750 tons. The planting area has increased by 300 - 400 million mu (7% - 10%), and the average yield per mu has increased by 30 - 50 kg (5% - 10%) [17][18] - **New cotton quality**: The new cotton quality is expected to improve year - on - year. Although the lint percentage in some southern Xinjiang areas may decline, the overall quality of cotton in both southern and northern Xinjiang is better than last year [19] - **Opening time**: The opening time of cotton acquisition in southern and northern Xinjiang is close, expected to be concentrated around September 25th to the end of September, later than the previous market expectation but earlier than last year [20] - **Planting cost and income**: The planting cost has increased slightly year - on - year. The cost of leased land is about 3,000 yuan/mu, and the cost of self - owned land is about 1,500 - 1,700 yuan/ton. The break - even yield per mu for leased land is 400 - 410 kg [21] - **Cottonseed price**: The cottonseed price has increased year - on - year. The pre - sale price in southern Xinjiang is 2.3 - 2.35 yuan/kg, and in northern Xinjiang is about 2.2 yuan/kg. During the peak acquisition period, the price may drop to 2.1 - 2.2 yuan/kg, still higher than last year [22] - **Ginning factory**: Ginning factories are cautious in acquisition. In northern Xinjiang, due to years of losses, they have lost the ability and impulse to rush for cotton, and the over - capacity situation has been reversed [23][24] - **Cotton farmers**: Cotton farmers have low expectations for the cotton price, with a psychological expectation of 6.3 - 6.5 yuan/kg, and their reluctance to sell has weakened [25] - **Warehousing inventory**: The inventory of old cotton in Xinjiang's warehousing enterprises is extremely low, while the industrial inventory of cotton spinning enterprises is relatively high, which can be connected to the large - scale listing of new cotton. However, some inland textile enterprises have tight inventories, and the shortage of high - quality cotton is prominent [26] - **New cotton pre - sale**: The pre - sale volume of Xinjiang cotton is large, about 150 tons. The pre - sale basis is high, but the actual execution rate is uncertain [27] - **Cotton spinning enterprises**: Xinjiang's cotton spinning enterprises have sufficient orders but shrinking profit margins. The growth of cotton spinning capacity in Xinjiang will enter a bottleneck period [28] 3.3 Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - **Short - term**: In the fourth quarter, due to the large - scale listing of new cotton, the supply pressure and market sentiment will be concentratedly released. The futures price may fall below 13,000 yuan/ton, with the low point possibly in November. It is not recommended to short after the price falls below 13,000 yuan/ton due to the poor risk - return ratio [5][35][36] - **Long - term**: After the release of negative factors, downstream restocking will help stabilize the market. The overall market in the next year is cautiously optimistic [5][36] 3.4 Research Content 3.4.1 September 8th - Kashgar Region, Shache County - **Kashgar Youmian Experimental Base**: It promotes the modernization of the cotton industry. The expected yield per mu of the "Kashgar Youmian" demonstration field in 2025 is 630 kg, a year - on - year increase of more than 50% [41] - **Color Cotton Planting and Research Base**: It uses intelligent agriculture to increase yield. The current yield per mu is about 480 kg, and the lint percentage is 35% - 36% [41] - **Shache County Cotton Industry Company**: The planting area has increased from 800,000 mu last year to 1.1 million mu this year, and the yield per mu is expected to be higher than last year. The pre - sale price of cottonseed is 2.3 yuan/kg, and the expected acquisition price of hand - picked cotton for spinning is below 7 yuan/kg [40][43] - **DW Group Xinjiang Shache Industrial Park Enterprise**: It has a total planned capacity of 4 - 5 million spindles. It only produces one variety, 32s, with high production efficiency. It uses cotton with double 29 indicators, mainly from southern Xinjiang, and has a good profit [45][46][48] 3.4.2 September 9th - Bachu → Tumushuke - **Bachu County Industrial Park Cotton - related Enterprise Symposium**: Bachu's cotton - spinning industry has developed rapidly. The planting area in 2025 is 1.66 million mu, and the yield per mu is expected to increase to 410 - 420 kg. The total inventory of three warehouses is only 160,000 tons. The current cottonseed price is about 2.4 yuan/kg, and the expected acquisition price is 6.1 - 6.3 yuan/kg [52][61] - **Bachu County Delivery Warehouse**: Some factories in Kashgar are purchasing hand - picked cotton for wadding. The expected production in Kashgar this year is 200,000 tons more than last year, but the lint percentage may be one point lower. The current inventory is 38,000 tons, much lower than last year [62][63] - **A Division's Enterprise Group Symposium**: The cotton planting area this year is 1.08 million mu, slightly increasing. The expected yield per mu has a small increase. The lint percentage may be 1 - 2 points lower, but the quality indicators are better than last year. The expected acquisition price of hand - picked cotton for wadding is 16,200 - 16,500 yuan/ton [67][68] 3.4.3 September 10th - Tumushuke → Alar - **A State - owned Textile Enterprise under a Division**: It has a current spinning capacity of 400,000 spindles, producing 24S and high - end yarns. The inventory of cotton yarn is about 1,000 tons, mainly sold in Xinjiang. The processing cost of 60s yarn is about 7,200 yuan, and the production profit is negative after including depreciation and financial costs [72][74][76] - **A Division's Enterprise Group**: The cotton planting area in the division is stable at 2 million mu, and the expected yield per mu is 460 - 470 kg. The expected acquisition price of seed cotton is about 6 yuan/kg. The enterprise is conservative in acquisition and uses hedging strategies. It is optimistic about the market next year [78][82][85] 3.4.4 September 11th - Alar → Shaya → Xinhe - **Alar Economic Development Zone Symposium**: The surrounding textile mills in Alar are operating well, but the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is not obvious. The current textile capacity in Xinjiang is about 34 million spindles. The "Bing 9 Articles" policy provides subsidies for building factories and equipment in southern Xinjiang's four divisions [86][89] - **Shaya Cotton Industry Company**: The planting area in Shaya is 1.85 million mu, and the yield per mu is expected to be over 500 kg. The current price of cottonseed is 2.4 yuan/kg, and the pre - sale price is 2.3 yuan/kg. The enterprise is cautious in acquisition and follows large factories [95][96][98] - **Xinhe Cotton Industry Group Symposium**: The enterprise is a leading enterprise in Aksu. It believes that the acquisition price of seed cotton above 6.5 yuan/kg is risky, and it may fall below 6 yuan/kg in November [100][103] 3.4.5 September 12th - Tiemenguan → Korla - **Tiemenguan Textile Enterprise**: It will form a complete industrial chain from cotton to clothing. The current order volume is about 2,100 tons, and the inventory is about 560 tons. The enterprise uses more southern Xinjiang cotton, and the acquisition price may be slightly higher this year. The yarn market has limited downward space but lacks upward momentum [112][114][122]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - ICE cotton prices are fluctuating narrowly between 66 - 67 cents, lacking positive support. Attention should be paid to whether it can hold the support level of 66 cents/pound. The domestic cotton futures are falling. The expected high - yield and large - scale listing of new cotton, along with the weak purchasing enthusiasm of ginning mills, are pressuring the Zhengzhou cotton futures price. The uncertainty of new cotton cost is the main pressure. However, if the demand is stable and the spot maintains a high basis, the point - pricing demand is expected to support the Zhengzhou cotton futures 01 contract after the new cotton cost is determined. Before the National Day holiday, Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend, and after the holiday, the trend will still be dominated by the new cotton cost, with limited impact from the overseas market during the holiday [1][4][17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Data | Futures | Opening Price | High Price | Low Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Trading Volume (Lots) | Volume Change (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | Open Interest Change (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ICE Cotton Main Contract | 66.35 | 67.02 | 66.03 | 66.33 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 91806 | - 9314 | 165485 | 9600 | | Zhengzhou Cotton Main Contract | 13740 | 13755 | 13390 | 13405 | - 315 | - 2.30 | 1198135 | 61293 | 534819 | 25570 | | Cotton Yarn Main Contract | 19765 | 19905 | 19590 | 19610 | - 125 | - 0.63 | 57369 | - 1233 | 6640 | - 10804 | [4] 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. International Cotton Situation - **ICE Cotton**: It is fluctuating narrowly between 66 - 67 cents, affected by the trends of crude oil and other agricultural products. The fundamental news is weak, and the weekly export sales data of US cotton has deteriorated again [4]. - **US Cotton Weekly Export Sales Data**: As of the week ending September 18, 2025/26 US upland cotton weekly signing was 1.95 tons, a 54% week - on - week decrease and a 53% decrease compared to the four - week average. There was no new signing for 2026/27 US upland cotton. The weekly shipment of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 3.11 tons, a 14% week - on - week increase and a 6% increase compared to the four - week average. The total signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton and Pima cotton was 94.65 tons, accounting for 36% of the annual forecasted total export volume; the cumulative export shipment volume was 21.98 tons, accounting for 23% of the annual total signing volume [5]. - **Other Cotton - Producing and Consuming Countries**: - **India**: The rupee has depreciated. The ex - factory price of S - 6 has dropped by 50 rupees/candy to 55,250 rupees/candy (about 79.5 cents/pound), and the quotation of J - 34 in Punjab has dropped by 200 rupees/maund to 5,465 rupees/maund (about 74.85 cents/pound) [6]. - **Brazil**: The subsequent shipment is expected to increase significantly. The estimated total output of 2024/25 cotton is 411 tons. The export shipment volume in the first two weeks of September was about 6.4 tons, and the progress was slower year - on - year, but it is expected to increase significantly later [7]. - **Australia**: There is expected to be more rainfall in Q4. The early planting scale in Queensland has expanded. The reservoir storage capacity in the Murray - Darling Basin has recovered to 70% of the total capacity [7]. - **Pakistan**: The demand for cotton imports is still average. The estimated total output of this year's cotton is 6 - 7 million bales. The domestic cotton supply is stable, and the spinning mills have little motivation to purchase from the international market [8]. - **Bangladesh**: The demand for cotton imports has slowed down. The import volume in August was 13.3 tons, slightly lower than that in July and a 12% decrease compared to the same period last year [9]. - **Textile Industry Startup Rates in Southeast Asia**: As of the week ending September 26, the startup rates of textile enterprises in India, Vietnam, and Pakistan were 69.5%, 62.5%, and 65% respectively [9]. 3.2.2. Domestic Cotton Situation - **Spot and Pre - sale**: The spot trading of cotton is light, while the pre - sale of new cotton is relatively good. The spot price center has moved down, and the spot inventory has decreased. The pre - sale price of new cotton in 2025/26 is between 14700 - 15000 yuan/ton [10]. - **Seed Cotton Purchase**: The lower limit of the purchase price of seed cotton has been lowered. The purchase volume is small, and the listing progress is slower than expected. The purchase price for a certain volume is around 6.3 - 6.45 yuan/kg, and the theoretical cost is mainly between 14700 - 15000 yuan/ton [11]. - **Cotton Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 26, the registered warehouse receipts of No. 1 cotton were 3397 lots, and the forecast warehouse receipts were 12 lots, totaling 3409 lots, equivalent to 143,178 tons [11]. - **Downstream Situation**: - **Cotton Yarn Market**: The trading is average, with seasonal demand as the main factor. The new orders are few. The price is stable with a slight decline. The cash flow of enterprises has improved. The startup rate is stable, and the inventory reduction has slowed down [12]. - **Cotton Grey Cloth Market**: The trading is stable, with a weakening trend in some areas. The price is weak. The orders are mainly small - scale, and the subsequent orders are insufficient. The inventory reduction has slowed down. The average startup level of weaving factories is 50% - 60%, and some factories are reducing production [12]. 3.3. Operation Suggestions - For ICE cotton futures, pay attention to whether it can hold the support level of 66 cents/pound. For domestic cotton futures, focus on the transaction price of new seed cotton. Before the National Day holiday, expect a weak and volatile trend, and after the holiday, the trend will be dominated by the new cotton cost, with limited impact from the overseas market during the holiday [17].