Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In April, new RMB loans amounted to 280 billion, a decrease of 450 billion year-on-year, with short-term loans and mortgage growth turning negative [1][3] - Corporate loans saw a significant decline, totaling approximately 610 billion, down by over 250 billion compared to last year, primarily due to the impact of US-China tariffs on business confidence [1][3] - Social financing in April increased by 1.16 trillion, with an 8.7% growth rate attributed to a low base from the previous year [1][3] Group 2: Government Debt and Economic Implications - The government issued 976.2 billion in new debt in April, an increase of about 1.07 trillion year-on-year, indicating reliance on government bonds to support financing [3] - The data, while below market expectations, is considered reasonable given the seasonal nature of credit and the recent tariff impacts, suggesting a need for further stimulus policies [3] Group 3: Tencent Financial Performance - Tencent reported Q1 revenue of 180 billion, a 13% year-on-year increase, surpassing market expectations of 175.7 billion [13] - Capital expenditures for Tencent decreased to 27.4 billion, with a significant shift in spending from non-AI to AI-related projects, raising AI spending expectations from 60 billion to over 80 billion [19][20] - Advertising revenue grew by 20% and gaming revenue by 17%, both exceeding expectations, with AI contributing positively to these figures [20] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Trends - The A-share market showed a collective pullback, with the Shanghai Composite Index down slightly, reflecting a lack of strong market sentiment and limited trading opportunities [21][22] - Retail investor sentiment weakened, with a decline in new account openings, while foreign capital experienced net outflows due to tariff issues [22][23] - Institutional investors are nearing the end of their portfolio adjustments, which are seen as short-term actions rather than long-term market direction changes [25]

Group 1 - The market experienced significant fluctuations, with major consumer stocks dropping sharply, leading to losses for investors who had anticipated gains from tourism-related stocks before the holiday [1][2] - The performance of the banking sector reached historical highs, raising concerns about sustainability and potential market corrections [2][5] - The overall market lacks clear profit-making opportunities, with only a few sectors, such as electricity, showing healthier trends [6][7] Group 2 - Investors are advised to avoid stocks with poor earnings reports and to focus on sectors with potential, particularly in the electricity market [3][6] - Specific stocks in the electricity sector, such as Huadian and Huayin, are highlighted for their strong performance and growth potential due to upcoming seasonal demand [7][8] - The market outlook suggests a possible adjustment phase, with strong support expected around the 3200 level [5]

裘翔 ｜ 中信证券首席A股策略师 S1010518080002 策略聚焦 ｜ 再次高低切换 在彻底取消所有对华单边关税措施前，中美贸易谈判可能进展有限；国内的政策是托 底和应对式的，4月只是第一波以试验和预防为特征的政策；筹码出清相对彻底且对 业绩不敏感的主题阶段性占优；市场整体情绪位置不算低，科技板块相对医药和消费 更接近冰点，对风偏回升更敏感。配置上，5月关注新技术和产业题材轮动、海外科 技映射链修复以及服务业扩内需政策落地。 风险因素：中美科技、贸易、金融领域摩擦加剧；国内政策力度、实施效果或经济复 苏不及预期；海内外宏观流动性超预期收紧；俄乌、中东地区冲突进一步升级；我国 房地产库存消化不及预期；特朗普政策侧重点超预期。 杨帆｜中信证券 宏观与政策首席分析师 S1010515100001 中信证券｜强化底线思维，充分备足预案：政治局会议学习体会 2025年4月政治局会议指出，虽然一季度经济开局良好，但外部冲击影响加大，下行 风险显著上升；需要"强化底线思维"，对外部压力从最坏处准备，努力争取最好的结 果，因时而动用好政策工具箱，巩固经济与社会稳定。 风险因素：经济增速下行风险；政策力度或效果不及预期； ...

Core Insights - The 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations between China and the EU highlights significant achievements in economic and trade cooperation, which is deemed crucial for global economic stability and development [1][2] Economic Cooperation Significance - The complexity of the current international economic landscape emphasizes the importance of China-EU cooperation, which has shown resilience in trade and stable bilateral investments [2] - The shift in investment models from mergers and acquisitions to greenfield investments indicates a growing focus on mutual trust and benefits [2] - China and the EU's economic scale and bilateral trade volume are substantial, making their cooperation vital for enhancing mutual interests and stabilizing global governance [2] Industry Collaboration and Innovation - The chemical industry remains a key area for China-EU cooperation, with predictions that China will contribute 75% of global chemical industry growth by 2030, showcasing the market's potential [4] - Companies like Evonik are expanding production capabilities in China, focusing on strategic industries such as electric vehicles and renewable energy [4] - The collaboration in technology sharing and market synergy between China and the EU can lower costs for global green transitions and promote sustainable development [3][4] Investment Trends - EU investments in China increased by 11.7% from January to March this year, reflecting strong enthusiasm from European companies [5] - Companies like Siemens and Kasei are actively investing in China, with Siemens establishing a new medical base in Shenzhen and Kasei launching a "Dragon Plan" to enhance local investment and innovation in healthcare [5][6] Local Innovation and Market Potential - Companies like Beiersdorf are establishing local innovation centers in China to leverage the market's growth potential and drive global market strategies [6] - L'Oréal is also increasing investments in China, focusing on emerging beauty brands and reinforcing the market's strategic importance within its global operations [6]