1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polyester market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger due to the anticipated supply gap of PX. The PX price is supported by gasoline blending value and the stable recovery of the by - product benzene price. The PTA supply is slightly tightened, and the polyester industry's operating rate remains stable above 90%. The export prospects of polyester products are optimistic due to positive trade policy adjustments in some overseas countries [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The gasoline cracking profit has declined, and the gasoline blending performance has weakened. The PX market is firm under multiple factors, with the PX - naphtha spread expanding to $256, while the PX - mixed xylene spread is under pressure, slightly above $100, limiting the space for increasing PX production to improve efficiency [4]. - **Demand**: The PTA supply is slightly tightened, and the polyester industry's operating rate remains stable above 90%. The export inquiries of polyester products have increased significantly, and the domestic polyester export prospects are still optimistic [4]. - **Inventory**: The PTA port inventory decreased by 30,000 tons this week, and the market is slightly destocking [4]. - **Basis**: The PTA basis continues to strengthen, and the PTA profit remains at a low level [4]. - **Profit**: The PX - naphtha spread reaches $250, and the PTA processing fee remains at a low level of around $200 [4]. - **Valuation**: The PTA price is at a relatively low - to - neutral level. With the decline in the reformer unit profit, the absolute PTA price rebounds under the tight PX situation [4]. - **Macro Policy**: The macro - policy factor is neutral. Trump announced that the US will take land - based actions against so - called Venezuelan "drug traffickers" [4]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: There is no obvious driving force, and the market is expected to be mainly stronger [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it's advisable to wait and watch, and pay attention to geopolitical risks [4]. 3.2 Oil Product Fundamentals Overview - **Crude Oil**: Trump claimed to launch a strike against Venezuela, and Russia will discuss the plan details of the Geneva negotiation with the US next week [6][9]. - **Gasoline**: The US gasoline demand is seasonally weakening, and the gasoline cracking profit is also weakening. Overseas refined oil markets show weakening demand and significant regional differences. North American refinery operating rates have risen to 90%, higher than the five - year average. European gasoline spot prices are under pressure, and regional supply may increase as European refineries gradually resume work [10][17][25]. 3.3 Aromatic Hydrocarbon Fundamentals Overview - **Supply and Market Expectation**: The PX supply is shrinking, and the strong market expectation affects the market. The domestic reformer oil supply is continuously tight, and the loads of refineries in Asia are also decreasing, but some are expected to resume production by the end of November [28][45]. - **Arbitrage Space**: The cross - regional arbitrage space for aromatic hydrocarbons has opened [38]. - **Profit and Production Adjustment**: The profit of selective disproportionation has recovered, but the disproportionation profit is suppressed by pure benzene. Some large - scale aromatic hydrocarbon units have reduced or shut down production due to poor economics. The PX - naphtha spread is maintained at $245/ton, and the PX - mixed xylene spread has narrowed to $105/ton [46][52][59]. - **Price and Demand**: The PX price is stable but tight. The demand is generally healthy, especially the PTA export has new opportunities. The PX price trend is strong, which is significantly beneficial to the PTA market [59][66]. 3.4 Polyester Fundamentals Overview - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol port inventory is at 730,000 tons. With the continuous decline in coal prices, the ethylene glycol price lacks effective support. New device production increases supply pressure, but the increase in polyester export inquiries is expected to support downstream demand [81]. - **Gasoline**: The Asian gasoline profit remains strong [83]. - **Polyester**: The polyester industry maintains a high load, and the weaving load is optimistic. The export demand may boost the market [91][93].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The price of pure benzene is expected to maintain a weak and stable oscillation in the short term, influenced by both supply improvement and cost decline [2] - The short - term trend of styrene is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation, with cost weakening but relatively strong price support at the bottom due to marginal tightening of supply and arrivals [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary (1) Fundamentals - **Price**: On November 25, the main contract of styrene closed up 0.16% at 6446 yuan/ton, with a basis of 64 (+0 yuan/ton); the main contract of pure benzene closed down 0.11% at 5411 yuan/ton [2] - **Cost**: On November 25, Brent crude oil closed at 58.8 dollars/barrel (+0.8 dollars/barrel), WTI crude oil closed at 62.7 dollars/barrel (+0.8 dollars/barrel), and the spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5320 yuan/ton (-40 yuan/ton) [2] - **Inventory**: Styrene port inventory was 14.8 tons (-2.7 tons), a 15.2% month - on - month de - stocking; pure benzene port inventory was 14.7 tons (+3.4 tons), a 30.1% month - on - month stocking [2] - **Supply**: Styrene's production and capacity utilization fluctuated slightly month - on - month. Currently, the weekly output of styrene was 34.3 tons (-0.1 tons), and the factory capacity utilization was 69.0% (-0.3%) [2] - **Demand**: The overall demand of the downstream 3S industries recovered. The capacity utilization of EPS was 56.3% (+4.6%), ABS was 72.4% (+0.6%), and PS was 55.9% (+0.5%) [2] (2) Views - **Pure benzene**: International oil prices and refined oil prices have fluctuated sharply, affecting the trend of pure benzene. The gasoline crack spread has weakened, reducing the support from gasoline blending. Supply may improve marginally as some US disproportionation units have shut down, potentially reducing China's imports by about 5 tons. Although it is the seasonal stocking period in the fourth quarter, the stocking amplitude may decrease. However, the weakening of crude oil prices is the main factor restricting the market, and the market is expected to remain in a range - bound oscillation [2] - **Styrene**: The supply side of styrene is still a mix of positive and negative factors, but it has maintained a relatively low operating level since October. The impact of previous large - scale plant launches has been digested. Domestic demand has changed little, but previous exports have increased. If some orders continue, it will help improve the supply - demand situation. However, the weakening of cost support has led to an oscillating trend. The supply in December may be affected by potential production cuts at some East China pure benzene plants, and the expected low arrivals at the main ports will keep the basis relatively strong, with spot transactions mainly for rigid demand [3] 2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring (1) Styrene and Pure Benzene Prices - Styrene futures increased by 0.16% to 6446 yuan/ton, and spot prices increased by 0.70% to 6636 yuan/ton. The basis remained unchanged [5] - Pure benzene futures decreased by 0.44% to 5411 yuan/ton, and East China spot prices decreased by 0.56% to 5290 yuan/ton. International prices also declined [5] - The spread between domestic and CFR pure benzene increased by 2.41%, while the spread between East China and Shandong pure benzene decreased by 37.50% [5] - Brent crude oil increased by 1.34% to 58.8 dollars/barrel, WTI crude oil increased by 1.26% to 62.7 dollars/barrel, and naphtha prices remained unchanged [5] (2) Styrene and Pure Benzene Production and Inventory - China's styrene production decreased by 0.43% to 34.3 tons, and pure benzene production decreased by 1.67% to 44.7 tons [6] - Styrene port inventory in Jiangsu decreased by 15.16% to 14.8 tons, and domestic factory inventory decreased by 0.70% to 18.8 tons [6] - National pure benzene port inventory increased by 30.09% to 14.7 tons [6] (3) Capacity Utilization - The capacity utilization of styrene decreased by 0.30% to 69.0%, that of caprolactam increased by 2.18% to 88.2%, that of phenol increased by 11.46% to 78.7%, and that of aniline decreased by 4.49% to 75.7% [7] - Among styrene downstream industries, the capacity utilization of EPS increased by 4.54% to 56.3%, VBS increased by 0.60% to 72.4%, and PS increased by 0.50% to 55.9% [7] 3. Industry News - The EU imposed sanctions on several Russian individuals [8] - The number of non - farm payrolls in the US in September increased by 119,000, higher than market expectations [8] - The Iranian Foreign Minister announced the official termination of the Cairo Agreement signed with the International Atomic Energy Agency [8] - The US Department of Energy announced a restructuring, prioritizing oil and nuclear energy resources over the previous focus on renewable energy and energy efficiency [8] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - Charts include those of pure benzene prices, styrene prices, styrene - pure benzene spreads, SM import and domestic pure benzene costs, styrene port and factory inventories, pure benzene port inventory, ABS inventory, and capacity utilization of related products [13][18][22]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - Not mentioned in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The fundamentals of pure benzene are still weak, but the cost support from macro and oil prices may change the previous one - sided bearish expectation [2] - Styrene continues to have a tight supply pattern, and cost - side factors are becoming dominant again. Cost warming may push up the price bottom center, while demand remains weak [3] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary (1) Fundamentals - On November 24, the main contract of styrene closed down 1.09% at 6,436 yuan/ton, with a basis of 64 (+11 yuan/ton); the main contract of pure benzene closed down 1.33% at 5,435 yuan/ton [2] - On November 24, Brent crude oil closed at $58.1 per barrel (-$0.9 per barrel), WTI crude oil closed at $61.9 per barrel (-$0.9 per barrel), and the spot price of East China pure benzene was 5,320 yuan/ton (-40 yuan/ton) [2] - Styrene port inventory was 148,000 tons (-27,000 tons), with a 15.2% month - on - month destocking; pure benzene port inventory was 147,000 tons (+34,000 tons), with a 30.1% month - on - month stockpiling [2] - Styrene production and capacity utilization fluctuated slightly. Weekly production was 343,000 tons (-1,000 tons), and plant capacity utilization was 69.0% (-0.3%) [2] - The overall demand of downstream 3S industries improved. EPS capacity utilization was 56.3% (+4.6%), ABS capacity utilization was 72.4% (+0.6%), and PS capacity utilization was 55.9% (+0.5%) [2] (2) Views - **Pure Benzene**: Overseas fundamentals show a structural differentiation. Macro and oil price cost support may change the bearish expectation. In China, short - term arrivals are fast, port inventory is accumulating, and downstream demand improvement is limited [2] - **Styrene**: Supply remains tight, port inventory continues to decline. Cost factors are becoming dominant. Demand is weak, and the impact of cost warming is more direct on production profit and price support [3] 2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring (1) Styrene and Pure Benzene Prices - From November 21 to 24, 2025, the main styrene futures contract decreased by 1.09%, and the spot price decreased by 0.45%. The main pure benzene futures contract decreased by 1.33%, and the East China spot price decreased by 0.75% [5] - The spread between domestic pure benzene and CFR decreased by 9.42%, and the spread between East China and Shandong pure benzene increased by 42.86% [5] - Brent crude oil decreased by 1.59%, WTI crude oil decreased by 1.37%, and naphtha price remained unchanged [5] (2) Styrene and Pure Benzene Production and Inventory - From November 14 to 21, 2025, Chinese styrene production decreased by 0.43% to 343,000 tons, and pure benzene production decreased by 1.67% to 447,000 tons [6] - Styrene port inventory in Jiangsu decreased by 15.16% to 148,000 tons, and factory inventory decreased by 0.70% to 188,000 tons. Pure benzene port inventory nationwide increased by 30.09% to 147,000 tons [6] (3) Capacity Utilization - From November 14 to 21, 2025, the capacity utilization of styrene decreased by 0.30% to 69.0%, that of caprolactam increased by 2.18% to 88.2%, that of phenol increased by 11.46% to 78.7%, and that of aniline decreased by 4.49% to 75.7% [7] - Among styrene downstream industries, EPS capacity utilization increased by 4.64% to 56.3%, ABS capacity utilization increased by 0.60% to 72.4%, and PS capacity utilization increased by 0.50% to 55.9% [7] 3. Industry News - The EU imposed sanctions on several Russian individuals [8] - The number of non - farm payrolls in the US in September increased by 119,000, higher than market expectations [8] - Iran's foreign minister announced the formal termination of the Cairo Agreement signed with the International Atomic Energy Agency [8] - The US Department of Energy announced a reorganization, prioritizing oil and nuclear resources [8] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts of pure benzene price, styrene price, styrene - pure benzene spread, SM import and domestic pure benzene cost, styrene port and factory inventory, pure benzene port inventory, ABS inventory, and capacity utilization of related products [13][18][22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the polyester industry is "oscillating", and it is expected to be mainly on the strong side with no obvious driving force [4]. 2. Core View of the Report - The tight supply of PX is expected to continue until 2026, which is beneficial to the PTA market. The PTA supply is slightly tightened, the polyester industry maintains a high operating rate, and the export prospects of polyester products are optimistic. Overall, the polyester market is expected to be strong [4][67]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The tight supply of PX raw materials is intensified as refineries prioritize using reformate for gasoline blending. The tight PX supply - demand pattern is expected to last until 2026, benefiting the PTA market [4]. - **Demand**: PTA supply is slightly tightened, the polyester industry operating rate remains stable above 90%. The export inquiry of polyester products has increased, and the export prospects are optimistic [4]. - **Inventory**: PTA port inventory has increased this week, and the market is in a continuous inventory - building state [4]. - **Basis**: The PTA basis has continued to strengthen, and the PTA profit remains at a low level [4]. - **Profit**: The spread between PX and naphtha is $260, and the PTA processing fee remains at a low level of around $200 [4]. - **Valuation**: The PTA price is at a neutral - low level. With the decline of reformer unit profit, the absolute PTA price rebounds under the tight PX situation [4]. - **Macro Policy**: According to the UK's Daily Telegraph, if Trump's Ukraine peace plan is implemented, Russia may be lifted from Western sanctions [4]. - **Investment View**: It is expected to be mainly on the strong side with no obvious driving force [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to geopolitical risks [4]. PART TWO: Oil Product Fundamentals Overview - **Crude Oil**: Rumors of a Russia - Ukraine agreement have led to weak crude oil prices. On November 21, Ukrainian President Zelensky agreed to work on a peace plan drafted by the US and Russia [6][10]. - **Gasoline**: US gasoline inventory has been continuously decreasing. The low inventory of US gasoline supports the aromatics market. The cracking profit of gasoline has reached a two - year high, and more reformate is used for internal gasoline blending [11][29]. PART THREE: Aromatics Fundamentals Overview - **Aromatics**: The supply of PX has shrunk, and the futures price is leading the spot price. The cross - regional arbitrage space for aromatics has opened, and there are rumors of physical goods circulation. The profit of selective disproportionation has declined, and the maintenance of reformer units has increased [32][42][48]. - **PX**: It is the core of polyester industry price fluctuations. The pricing is closely linked to futures after the listing of PX futures. The supply in November reached a high for the year, but the strong gasoline blending profit restricts the production increase willingness of overseas producers. The demand is healthy overall, but there are potential pressures on the 2026 contract negotiation [51][60]. PART FOUR: Polyester Fundamentals Overview - **Ethylene Glycol**: The inventory at East China ethylene glycol ports has increased significantly compared with last week. With the continuous decline of coal prices, the ethylene glycol price lacks effective support. The new device production increases the supply pressure, but the increase in polyester export inquiries is expected to support the demand [81]. - **Polyester**: The polyester industry maintains a high load, and the weaving load is optimistic. The export demand is expected to boost the market [91][93].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on polyester is "oscillating", expected to be mainly on the strong side, and the trading strategy for the unilateral position is to wait and see [4] 2. Core View of the Report - PX supply is tight and polyester exports may increase. The PX market price rebounds due to multiple factors, but production is limited by high gasoline profit margins and low benzene prices. Polyester downstream load remains at about 90%, and the inventory of polyester factories is optimistic. The PTA port inventory is accumulating, the PTA basis is weak, and the profit is at a low level. The PTA price is at a neutral - low position, and the macro - policy has a neutral impact. Overall, there is no obvious driving force, and it is expected to be mainly on the strong side [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: PX market price rebounds. Although some planned maintenance has ended and production capacity is gradually recovering, PX output is still limited. Gasoline profit surge and low benzene price lead to reduced raw material input in aromatic hydrocarbon devices and lower load of reforming and STDP devices, restricting PX supply. PTA device maintenance increases slightly [4] - **Demand**: Polyester downstream load maintains at about 90%, the inventory of polyester factories is optimistic, and the downstream weaving performance is good recently [4] - **Inventory**: PTA port inventory accumulates 160,000 tons this week, and the market is continuously accumulating inventory [4] - **Basis**: PTA basis continues to be weak, and PTA profit remains at a low level [4] - **Profit**: The spread between PX and naphtha reaches $250, and the PTA processing fee remains at a low level of about 200 [4] - **Valuation**: PTA price is at a neutral - low position. With the decline of reforming device profit, the absolute PTA price rebounds under the tight PX situation [4] - **Macro - policy**: Geopolitical events such as the attack in the Black Sea port have a neutral impact [4] - **Investment view**: Oscillating, expected to be mainly on the strong side; trading strategy: unilateral position, wait and see [4] 3.2 Oil Product Fundamentals Overview - **Crude oil**: On November 12, OPEC changed its estimate of the global oil market from deficit to surplus due to higher - than - expected US production and increased OPEC supply. The OPEC + alliance may pause further production increases in Q1 2026. Geopolitical events such as the so - called "drug - busting" action of the US against Venezuela also affect the market [8] - **Gasoline**: US gasoline inventory is continuously decreasing. Gasoline cracking profit strengthens, increasing blending demand. The North American refinery start - up rate drops to 86.6%, crude oil inventory decreases by 6.9 million barrels, and imports also decline significantly. The low US gasoline inventory supports the aromatic hydrocarbon market, and high - octane aromatic hydrocarbon prices are strong. European refineries face challenges, and Ebob gasoline prices rise [25] 3.3 Aromatic Hydrocarbon Fundamentals Overview - **Supply contraction**: PX supply contracts, waiting for the annual contract negotiation results. Asian naphtha price strengthens but cracking profit is under pressure. South Korea reduces reforming device load due to declining aromatic hydrocarbon profit. Some Southeast Asian devices are under maintenance, promoting the expansion of Asian gasoline profit [44] - **Arbitrage space**: The cross - regional arbitrage space for aromatic hydrocarbons is opened, and physical goods circulation is in progress. The US - Asia spread of mixed xylene is about $257, theoretically supporting arbitrage imports [49] - **Profit situation**: Selective disproportionation profit declines, and reforming device maintenance increases. Pure benzene price rebounds slightly but still suppresses disproportionation profit. Gasoline reforming and aromatic hydrocarbon reforming profits both recover [45][55] - **PX situation**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. The PX market price rebounds, but production is limited. China's PTA production is close to a historical high, supporting PX consumption [55] 3.4 Polyester Fundamentals Overview - **Ethylene glycol**: East China ethylene glycol port inventory increases significantly. With new device commissioning, supply pressure increases. Coal - based ethylene glycol profit recovers. Sino - US trade negotiation progress is expected to boost textile and clothing export demand [78] - **Polyester**: Polyester maintains a high load, and weaving load is optimistic. Export demand may boost the market. Under the background of tight PX supply and stable polyester start - up, polyester exports are expected to increase due to favorable overseas export policies and improved Sino - US trade relations [65][88]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significant growth and transformation of China's chemical industry during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, highlighting the need for high-quality development and innovation in the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" to strengthen its global competitiveness and influence [2][9]. Group 1: Overview of the Chemical Industry Development - The chemical industry is a crucial pillar of the national economy, with a steady growth in total output during the "14th Five-Year Plan," achieving a revenue of 14.5 trillion yuan in 2024, a 45% increase from 2020 [2]. - Major chemical products in China, such as ethylene, methanol, and fertilizers, maintain an annual growth rate of approximately 4.6%, with China producing about 42% of the world's major chemical products [3]. - In the 2024 global top 50 chemical companies, 11 Chinese companies are included, generating 2.1 trillion yuan in revenue, which is 1.35 times that of U.S. companies and exceeds the combined revenue of German and Japanese companies [5]. Group 2: Key Strategies for the "15th Five-Year Plan" - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to transition from quantity to quality, focusing on six enhancements: upgrading industrial structure, improving innovation capabilities, advancing green and low-carbon development, enhancing smart manufacturing, boosting international cooperation, and promoting high-quality development of chemical parks [9][10]. - The plan emphasizes the need to shift from fuel-driven to material-driven production, optimizing traditional industries and expanding high-end industries [10]. Group 3: Specific Industry Focus Areas - The refining industry is expected to transition from fuel-oriented to raw material-oriented, with a projected revenue of approximately 4.8 trillion yuan in 2024, accounting for 33.1% of the chemical industry [11]. - The ethylene industry will see a capacity of 53.8 million tons per year by 2024, maintaining its global leadership, but the supply growth rate will exceed demand growth [15]. - The aromatics industry, particularly paraxylene (PX), is projected to have a capacity of 43.37 million tons per year in 2024, solidifying China's position as the largest producer and consumer globally [19]. Group 4: Innovation and Technology Development - The chemical industry has made significant technological advancements, with a focus on original and disruptive innovations during the "15th Five-Year Plan," aiming to enhance R&D investment and reduce reliance on foreign technologies [29][30]. - The industry will prioritize breakthroughs in key technologies such as fine and specialty chemicals, biomanufacturing, and new catalytic technologies [30]. Group 5: Environmental and Sustainable Development - The chemical industry has achieved notable progress in pollution reduction and resource recycling, with a water reuse rate of 93% and a significant reduction in energy consumption across various products [32]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" will focus on systematic carbon reduction strategies, addressing the challenges of high carbon emissions and the need for a comprehensive carbon management system [33]. Group 6: Smart Manufacturing and Digital Transformation - The industry has seen improvements in smart manufacturing, with numerous companies adopting AI and digital technologies to enhance operational efficiency [34]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" will accelerate the integration of AI in chemical processes and promote the establishment of smart chemical parks [34]. Group 7: International Cooperation and Market Expansion - The chemical industry has strengthened its international cooperation, with foreign investments in China increasing and Chinese companies expanding their global presence [37][38]. - The focus will shift from mere participation in global markets to leading roles in technology sharing and value creation, enhancing China's influence in the global chemical industry [38]. Group 8: High-Quality Development of Chemical Parks - Significant progress has been made in the construction of chemical parks, with a focus on high-quality development and the establishment of world-class industrial clusters [39][40]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to optimize the spatial layout of the chemical industry, fostering advanced manufacturing clusters and enhancing the overall support role of chemical parks [40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for the polyester industry is "oscillating", with no obvious driving force, and it is expected to mainly oscillate. The trading strategy for the unilateral position is to wait and see, and attention should be paid to geopolitical risks [5]. 2. Core View of the Report - The polyester market is affected by multiple factors. The supply of PTA has slightly shrunk, the downstream load of polyester remains at about 90%, the port inventory of PTA has slightly increased, the basis of PTA has stabilized, and the profit has continued to shrink. The price of PX has rebounded, and the profit has been significantly repaired. The market is expected to mainly oscillate due to the lack of obvious driving forces [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The supply of domestic PTA devices has slightly shrunk, the PTA basis has stabilized, and the operating rate of PX devices has been stable, with the PXN expanding. It is bearish [5]. - **Demand**: The downstream load of polyester remains at about 90%, the inventory of polyester factories is optimistic, and the downstream weaving has performed well recently. It is expected that the current peak season can last until November. It is bullish [5]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of PTA has slightly increased, with a 50,000 - ton increase in inventory this week. It is neutral [5]. - **Basis**: The PTA basis has quickly stabilized, and the PTA profit has continued to shrink. It is bearish [5]. - **Profit**: The spread between PX and naphtha is $250, and the processing fee of PTA remains below 200 yuan. It is bearish [5]. - **Valuation**: The PTA price is at a neutral - low level, the profit of the reforming device has declined, and the anti - involution news has disturbed the market, causing the absolute price of PTA to rebound. It is neutral [5]. - **Macro Policy**: On October 30 local time, the Chinese and US presidents held a meeting. It is neutral [5]. - **Investment View**: There is no obvious driving force, and it is expected to mainly oscillate [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: The unilateral position should wait and see, and attention should be paid to geopolitical risks [5]. 3.2 Oil Product Fundamentals Overview - **Crude Oil**: North American crude oil inventories are at a recent low, and the US has imposed new sanctions on two Russian oil companies. The market fundamentals support oil prices, with a decrease in US crude oil inventories and a large drop in gasoline inventories, both slightly below the five - year average level. The refinery operating rate has risen from 85.7% to 88.6%. Crude oil and gasoline markets have strengthened under the tightening supply and geopolitical risks, but the reforming oil has performed relatively weakly [7][29]. - **Gasoline**: US gasoline inventories are approaching a low point. North American refinery loads have declined, and gasoline cracking profits have strengthened. The premium of reforming oil to RBOB has narrowed, the octane number profit rate of the reforming device has increased, and the refinery's oil - blending efficiency has improved. However, the reforming oil performance reflects that the oil - blending demand has not fully followed up [11][17][29]. 3.3 Aromatic Hydrocarbon Fundamentals Overview - **Aromatic Hydrocarbons**: The supply of xylene has increased, and the weakness of aromatic hydrocarbons has continued. The cross - regional arbitrage space for aromatic hydrocarbons has opened, but physical trade has not occurred. The price of pure benzene continues to suppress the disproportionation profit, and the profit of the STDP device is negative. Some producers have reduced the load of the reforming device due to the average profit of benzene [37][47][62]. - **PX**: It is the core of the price fluctuation in the polyester industry. After the listing of PX futures, its pricing is closely linked to futures. The PX spot trading is active, the price has significantly rebounded, and the profit has been significantly repaired. However, attention should be paid to the sustainability of downstream demand and geopolitical supply disturbances [58][67]. - **PTA**: Due to the large domestic PTA production capacity, the processing interval of PTA has long been maintained below 500 yuan. With the launch of new devices and new production capacities, the option - based income - enhancement scheme is increasingly widely used in the market [58][66]. - **Short Fibers and Bottle Chips**: They are in the production capacity launch cycle. Since the domestic downstream demand is relatively stable, overseas demand has become an important variable. With the implementation of the "Belt and Road" initiative, the industry has found new export opportunities and sales growth points in countries along the "Belt and Road" [58][66]. 3.4 Polyester Fundamentals Overview - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory of ethylene glycol in East China is still at a low level, the port arrivals are still limited, and the import volume of ethylene glycol in the overseas market is expected to decline. New device launches have continuously pressured the ethylene glycol price. The coal price has risen, but it has not provided stronger cost support for ethylene glycol, and the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol has been repaired. The downstream weaving load may remain optimistic [87]. - **Gasoline**: The profit of Asian gasoline has significantly rebounded due to the reduction in domestic exports [89]. - **Polyester**: Polyester continues to maintain a high load, and the weaving load remains optimistic. The production of polyester has rebounded, and attention should be paid to the export performance after the tariff adjustment. The domestic polyester export is still optimistic, but the industry profit is still restricted by the over - capacity caused by new device launches [73][96][98].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillating", with no obvious driving factors, and it is expected to be mainly oscillating upwards [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the polyester industry from multiple aspects including supply, demand, inventory, etc. It points out that the supply side of PTA has a slight contraction, the demand side of polyester is slightly recovering, and the overall market is in an oscillating state. The future trend depends on the recovery of downstream demand and the evolution of global energy and trade policies [3][65]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The domestic crude oil import is disrupted, and some refineries and trading companies are sanctioned, which may affect the refinery's operation. The supply of domestic PTA devices has a slight contraction, the PTA basis is stable, the PX device operating rate is stable, the cost is strengthening, and the PXN has also expanded [3]. - **Demand**: The downstream load of polyester maintains at about 90%, the inventory of polyester factories is optimistic, and the polyester sales are higher than expected. Whether the weaving can maintain the load in the future needs attention [3]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of PTA has significantly increased this week, and the physical goods in the Ningbo direction are slightly in short supply [3]. - **Basis**: The PTA basis quickly stabilizes, the PTA profit continues to shrink, and the liquidity of the PTA market is more tense than before [3]. - **Profit**: The price difference between PX and naphtha reaches $250, the processing fee of PTA still maintains at about 200 yuan, and the processing fee of PTA has shrunk [3]. - **Valuation**: The PTA price is at a neutral - low level. After the domestic maintenance season ends, the reforming device gradually recovers. Due to the rise in crude oil prices, the absolute price of PTA follows the rise [3]. - **Macro - policy**: On the morning of October 25 local time, the economic and trade teams of China and the United States began the Sino - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia [3]. - **Investment view**: There is no obvious driving factor, and it is expected to be mainly oscillating upwards [3]. - **Trading strategy**: Unilateral: Wait and see. Risk attention: Geopolitical risks [3]. 3.2 Oil Product Fundamentals Overview - **Gasoline demand**: The US government shutdown may affect demand in the off - season. The load of North American refineries has declined, and the gasoline supply has shrunk. The gasoline peak season is over, and the high - octane premium remains [8][14][25]. - **Inventory and price**: The EIA US crude oil inventory, gasoline inventory, and Cushing crude oil inventory are presented in the data. The gasoline cracking profit has increased significantly, and the refined oil price adjustment lags behind that of crude oil [8][9][65]. 3.3 Aromatic Hydrocarbon Fundamentals Overview - **Supply contraction**: Some domestic companies are sanctioned, leading to a contraction in the supply of aromatic hydrocarbons. The mixed xylene market price has strengthened due to the increase in upstream costs, but the market faces the dual pressures of sufficient supply and weak demand [34][56]. - **Arbitrage opportunity**: The cross - regional arbitrage space for aromatic hydrocarbons has opened, but physical trade has not yet occurred. The profit of selective disproportionation has declined, and the pure benzene price suppresses the disproportionation profit [45][51][58]. - **PX, PTA, and short - fiber and bottle - chip markets**: PX is the core of polyester industry price fluctuations, and its pricing is closely linked to futures. The PTA processing interval is long - term maintained below 500 yuan, and the option - based income - enhancement plan is more widely used. Short - fiber and bottle - chip are in the capacity release cycle, and overseas demand is an important variable [55][64]. 3.4 Polyester Fundamentals Overview - **Ethylene glycol**: The supply of ethylene glycol has increased, and the price is running weakly. The port inventory of ethylene glycol in East China is still at a low level, and the new domestic devices put into production have continuously pressured the price [79][85]. - **Polyester operation**: Polyester continues to maintain a high load, and the weaving load performance exceeds expectations. The polyester production has recovered, but the downstream has entered the off - season [94][96].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillating", with no obvious driving force, and it is expected to mainly oscillate [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the polyester industry from multiple aspects including supply, demand, inventory, etc. It points out that the supply side of polyester has shrunk, the downstream load of polyester remains at about 90%, and the PTA port inventory has slightly increased. The PTA basis has stabilized, but the profit has continued to shrink. The PX - naphtha spread is at $250, and the PTA processing fee remains at around 200 yuan. The PTA price is at a neutral - low level, and the absolute price has further declined due to the fall in crude oil prices. The overall market is expected to oscillate mainly due to the lack of obvious driving factors [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is bearish. The trade war may escalate, slightly affecting China's crude oil imports. The supply of domestic PTA devices has slightly shrunk, the PTA basis has stabilized, the PX device operating rate is stable, the cost has weakened, and although the PXN has expanded, polyester has followed the decline in crude oil [4] - **Demand**: It is bearish. The downstream load of polyester remains at about 90%, the inventory of polyester factories is optimistic, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether the weaving can maintain the load after the "Golden September and Silver October" [4] - **Inventory**: It is neutral. The port inventory of PTA has slightly increased, and the physical goods in the Ningbo direction are slightly in short supply [4] - **Basis**: It is bearish. The PTA basis has quickly stabilized, the PTA profit has continued to shrink, and the liquidity in the PTA market is still very loose [4] - **Profit**: It is bearish. The spread between PX and naphtha is $250, the PTA processing fee remains at around 200 yuan, and the PTA processing fee has expanded [4] - **Valuation**: It is neutral. The PTA price is at a neutral - low level. After the end of the domestic maintenance season, the reforming devices are gradually recovering, and the absolute price of PTA has further declined due to the fall in crude oil prices [4] - **Macro Policy**: It is neutral. On October 15, Fed Chairman Powell hinted that the Fed is planning to cut interest rates by 25 basis points later this month [4] - **Investment View**: It is oscillating. There is no obvious driving force, and it is expected to mainly oscillate [4] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to geopolitical risks [4] 3.2 Oil Product Fundamentals Overview - **Macro Situation**: On October 15, Fed Chairman Powell said that the US economy seems to be in a stable state, but the government shutdown may affect data collection. On October 17, major European stock indexes fell in early trading, with concerns about the banking industry spreading, and the European defense stocks also attracted attention [8] - **Gasoline**: The shutdown of the US government may affect demand in the off - season. The North American refinery load has declined, the total gasoline inventory has decreased by 1.6 million barrels, indicating strong terminal demand. The price of high - octane aromatics has remained relatively stable, and its spread with RBOB gasoline has remained stable at 68 cents [22] 3.3 Aromatic Hydrocarbon Fundamentals Overview - **Supply Increase**: With the commissioning of Yulong Petrochemical, the supply of MX is expected to increase in October. The future domestic xylene capacity will continue to be put into production at a high speed, with 1.7 million tons of xylene devices in Jiujiang Petrochemical, Huajin Aramco, and Zhongsha Gulei waiting to be put into production in 2026 [62] - **Market Situation**: The cross - regional arbitrage space for aromatics has opened, but physical trade has not occurred. The profit of selective disproportionation has declined, and the pure benzene price has suppressed the disproportionation profit. After the end of the maintenance season, the floating spread of PX has continued to weaken, the operating rate has significantly recovered, and the load has reached a very high level [40][54][62] - **Outlook**: Mixed xylene is facing continuous downward pressure. The profit of both gasoline reforming and aromatic hydrocarbon reforming has recovered, but the PTA supply side has shrunk, the processing fee has remained low, and the industry profit is still restricted by over - capacity [52][66] 3.4 Polyester Fundamentals Overview - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply of ethylene glycol has increased, and the price is running weakly. The inventory in East China ethylene glycol ports is still at a low level, the arrival volume at ports is limited, the import volume in the overseas market is expected to decline, and the new domestic devices have put pressure on the price. The coal - to - ethylene glycol operating rate has continued to recover, and the profit has been repaired [80] - **Gasoline**: The load of major refineries may decline due to port transportation [81] - **Polyester**: Polyester continues to maintain a high load, but the weaving load may decline. The polyester production has increased, and the downstream has entered the off - season [88][90]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for polyester is "oscillating", suggesting a lack of clear driving forces and an expected period of mainly oscillatory movement [4]. 2. Core View of the Report - The polyester market is experiencing a situation where fundamentals and sentiment are in resonance, leading to a decline in the chemical sector, with polyester following suit. Various factors such as supply, demand, inventory, and others are influencing the market, and overall, the market is expected to be mainly oscillatory [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Some ports are responding to sanctions, causing disruptions in China's crude oil imports. The optimization demand for oil products may be better than the chemical demand. For the PTA segment, the domestic PTA device supply has slightly contracted, the PTA basis has stabilized, and the PX device operating rate has been stable. However, due to sentiment disruptions, costs have weakened, and polyester is expected to decline accordingly [4]. - **Demand**: The downstream load of polyester has remained at around 90%. The inventory of polyester factories is optimistic, with the main increase in polyester load concentrated in the bottle - chip variety, and the weaving - end load has remained stable [4]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of PTA has slightly increased by 50,000 tons, with a small inventory build - up during the holiday [4]. - **Basis**: The PTA basis has quickly stabilized, the PTA profit has continued to shrink, and the liquidity in the PTA market is very loose [4]. - **Profit**: The spread between PX and naphtha has reached $220, and the PTA processing fee has remained at around 200 yuan, with a slight expansion [4]. - **Valuation**: The PTA price is at a moderately low level. After the domestic maintenance season ended, the reforming device has gradually recovered, but attention should be paid to the disruptions to the PX raw material supply caused by the current sanctions [4]. - **Macro Policy**: The State Administration for Market Regulation has launched a legal investigation into Qualcomm for suspected violations of the Anti - Monopoly Law due to its failure to legally report the concentration of business operators in its acquisition of Autotalks [4]. - **Investment View**: There are no obvious driving forces, and the market is expected to mainly oscillate [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - sided trading, it is recommended to wait and see, and attention should be paid to geopolitical risks [4]. 3.2 Oil Product Fundamentals Overview - The market anticipates an oil surplus in the fourth quarter of 2025, with an estimated surplus of 1.7 million barrels per day. In the first quarter of 2026, as OPEC+ increases production, the surplus is expected to further increase to 2.3 million barrels per day. China has been increasing its SPR strategic reserves, adding to the global additional demand for crude oil. Most of the current crude oil increments come from the Middle East, mainly provided by Saudi Arabia and the UAE [24]. - The US government shutdown may affect gasoline demand during the off - season. North American refineries are operating at high loads. As winter approaches and the North American RVP changes, the increasing demand for butane blending may make it difficult to maintain gasoline profits. The change in North American cracking spreads may affect Asian gasoline cracking spreads, and the cracking spreads in major global regions may weaken [50]. 3.3 Aromatic Hydrocarbon Fundamentals Overview - With the commissioning of Yulong Petrochemical's new device, the supply of aromatic hydrocarbons has increased. The profit from selective disproportionation has declined. After the end of the maintenance season, the floating spread of PX has continued to weaken, and the operating rate of PX has significantly recovered [33][63]. - The price of pure benzene is suppressing the disproportionation profit. The supply of MX is expected to increase starting in October, and the future domestic xylene capacity addition will continue at a high rate. In 2026, a total of 1.7 million tons of xylene devices from several companies are waiting to be commissioned [63]. - The processing fee of PTA has remained low, and the industry profit is still restricted by over - capacity due to new device commissioning. The downstream load of polyester has remained above 90%, indicating optimistic market demand. Mainstream PTA factories have planned to reduce production, and the PTA operating rate may further improve, but it is difficult for PTA to have an independent market due to the decline in crude oil prices [70]. 3.4 Polyester Fundamentals Overview - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply of ethylene glycol has increased, and the price has been weakly operating. The ethylene glycol port inventory in East China is still at a low level, the weekly port arrivals are limited, the overseas import volume of ethylene glycol is expected to decline, and the commissioning of domestic new devices has continuously pressured the ethylene glycol price. The profit of coal - based ethylene glycol has recovered, and the device load has increased [77][83]. - **Gasoline**: The load of major refineries may decline due to port transportation impacts [85]. - **Polyester**: Polyester has continued to maintain a high load, and the production of polyester has increased while the downstream has entered the off - season [91][99].