本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者帅可聪 北京报道 两天后，中央政治局会议定调：要努力提振资本市场，大力引导中长期资金入市，打通社保、保险、理 财等资金入市堵点。要支持上市公司并购重组，稳步推进公募基金改革，研究出台保护中小投资者的政 策措施。 自此，在政策暖风悉心呵护下，随着稳增长政策信号明确加码且逐步巩固，投资者信心大幅提升，A股 市场迎来显著估值修复。尽管在过去一年间，市场也曾因短期涨幅过大、关税摩擦等原因，几度出现较 大调整，但总体上走出了一波罕见的慢牛行情。 始于2024年9月24日的这轮牛市行情，已经持续约一年时间，A股市场的表现令人振奋。 Wind数据显示，截至2025年9月19日收盘，A股主要指数自"924"行情以来均大幅上涨，其中上证指数累 计上涨约39%，创业板指数累计大涨约102%。全市场超过3000只个股涨幅超过50%，其中1400余只涨幅 超过100%。A股最新总市值达104万亿元，近一年来增长大约36万亿元。 展望后市，有人说要"卖在人声鼎沸处"，但也有人坚称"信心比黄金更重要"。接下来，市场将如何演 绎？ 北证50指数飙升逾160% "这轮行情是政策牛，更是信心牛。" ...

上周市场震荡调整，沪指累跌1.30%，但市场分化度并未明显收窄，前期涨幅较大的电力设备、电子、 通信等行业本周仍然涨幅领先，而银行、非银、食品饮料等滞涨板块则仍未修复。 后市市场将如何演绎？且看最新十大券商策略汇总。 1. 国泰海通：调整是机会，中国股市不会止步于此 国泰海通证券研报指出，近日，市场在金融板块表现受阻之际情绪遇冷，分歧加大。我们的看法相较市 场共识更坚定与乐观，中国股市不会止步于此。 从战术看，中美元首通话表明短期风险展望稳定；弱美元与海外降息，有利于中国宽松与央行重启国债 交易；资本市场改革红利有望加快，科创板成长层推出和第五套上市标准重启在即。由此能够清晰的 是，市场调整是机会，后续A/H股指还有望走出新高。行业比较：新兴科技依然是主线，港股科技医药 有望延续修复。 2. 国金证券：真正的牛市还未开始 中国盈利基本面回升的牛市行情可能正在孕育。目前，降息后正在开启新的场景转换，两类机会可以关 注：一方面是流动性压制解除后， 6-8 月滞涨的港股或有补涨行情；另一方面，成长投资会逐步从科技 驱动走向出口出海。 制造业顺周期(有色，机械，化工)的机会将成为中期主线，准备好换挡后进入真正 的牛市 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing a volume contraction and adjustment, with major indices showing mixed performance [1][4] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3820.09, down 0.30%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13070.86, down 0.04% [2] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors include coal (+1.97%), non-ferrous metals (+1.19%), and building materials (+1.05%) [3] - Conversely, the worst-performing sectors are automotive (-1.94%), pharmaceutical biology (-1.41%), and computer technology (-1.26%) [3] Concept Index Performance - The leading concept indices are photolithography (+2.09%), civil explosives (+1.70%), and lithium extraction from salt lakes (+1.10%) [3] - The lagging concept indices include reducers (-2.68%), PEEK materials (-2.65%), and humanoid robots (-2.17%) [3] Future Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a long-term upward momentum despite short-term volatility due to profit-taking [5] - The report suggests a flexible positioning strategy, avoiding high-risk investments while focusing on sectors with favorable valuation and growth prospects, such as non-ferrous metals, transportation, public utilities, banking, and TMT [5]

IPO及再融资上会预告 据交易所官网审核动态信息，下周（9月22日-9月26日）IPO上会审核4家企业，合计拟募资122.33亿元。 | | | | 序号 | 募集资金投资方向 | 投资总额 | 募集资金投资额 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 金额 | 比例 | | 1 | 药物早期研发服务平台建设项目 | 45.358 | 45,358 | 38.28% | | 2 | 抗体药物研发及评价项目 | 31.646 | 31,646 | 26.70% | | 3 | 临床前研发项目 | 16.500 | 16,500 | 13.92% | | র্ব | 补充流动资金 | 25.000 | 25.000 | 21.10% | | | 合计 | 118.504 | 118,504 | 100.00% | 百奥赛图募资计划前后对比 招股书申报稿中，蘅东光原计划募6.51亿元，上会稿中拟募资规模缩减至4.94亿元。 | | | | | 单位:万元 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 序号 | 项目名称 | 项目总投资 | 募集 ...

周恒 制图 ■机构展望 A股短期或延续震荡 立足景气逻辑挖掘主线机会 ◎记者 汪友若 上周，A股市场表现震荡分化。上证指数表现相对较弱，全周累计下跌1.30%，收于3820.09点；深证成 指全周上涨1.14%；创业板指表现最为强劲，周涨幅达2.34%。从周走势来看，前半周市场总体震荡反 弹，随着美联储降息"靴子"落地，资金博弈加剧，周四和周五宽基指数多数回调。 中国银河证券认为，美联储9月议息会议结果与市场预期一致。对A股市场而言，短期看，需关注美联 储降息预期兑现后的波动。但中长期视角下，美联储降息利好A股走势，人民币有望走强，市场风险偏 好或进一步改善。 中泰证券称，美联储降息对全球资产价格产生了阶段性扰动，但中期仍有望提振股市。回顾2019年8月 与2024年9月，美联储均实施了"预防式降息"。虽然两次降息落地后市场均出现短期波动，但从中期来 看，宽松信号逐步发挥作用，对中美股市均形成积极提振。并且从国内政策来看，市场基本面修复的预 期仍在不断强化。因此，尽管短期市场仍处于震荡调整阶段，但中期趋势仍未逆转，指数仍具备上涨动 力。 国金证券研究显示，2019年和2024年的美联储降息周期中，A股出口型上 ...

展望后市，券商研报认为，一方面美联储降息"靴子"落地，引发市场情绪回落；另一方面，国庆长假前 后A股市场日历效应或较显著。在这一背景下，节前市场交投或相对清淡，但国庆长假后风险偏好有望 显著改善。当前市场波动为短期调整，指数仍具备长期上涨动力。 招商证券：国庆长假前后 A股日历效应或较显著 国庆长假前后，A股市场表现通常呈现出日历效应。国庆节前市场交投相对清淡，部分资金在避险需求 下流出，导致市场表现平淡。然而，国庆长假后市场风险偏好改善，主要指数往往迎来反弹。从过去十 年A股国庆长假后一周表现来看，上证指数、沪深300指数、中证1000指数上涨概率均超60%。此外， 国庆长假前后，A股融资盘通常也呈现出"节前收敛、节后迸发"的变化规律。 展望后市，券商研报认为，一方面美联储降息"靴子"落地，引发市场情绪回落；另一方面，国庆长假前 后A股市场日历效应或较显著。在这一背景下，节前市场交投或相对清淡，但国庆长假后风险偏好有望 显著改善。当前市场波动为短期调整，指数仍具备长期上涨动力。 上证报中国证券网讯（记者 汪友若）本周，A股市场整体震荡分化。上证指数表现相对较弱，全周累计 下跌1.30%，收于3820.09点 ...

Group 1: Market Insights from 2014-2015 Bull Market - The market style during the bull market from 2014 to 2015 showed a pattern of "rapid rise - retreat and bottoming," with the market crowding degree reaching a low of around 20% in early July 2025 and peaking at 30% in early September 2025 [1][10] - In the first phase of the 2014-2015 bull market, financial and stable styles led the gains, but during the consolidation phase, they significantly underperformed, while growth styles gradually took the lead [1][15] - The first phase saw non-bank financials, banks, construction decoration, steel, and real estate sectors leading the gains, but all fell to the lower ranks during the adjustment phase [2][18] Group 2: Current Economic Data - In August 2025, key economic indicators showed a marginal decline, with industrial value added growing by 5.2% year-on-year, below the expected 5.75% [3][27] - Social consumption in August increased by 3.4% year-on-year, also lower than the expected 3.82%, indicating a slowdown in consumer spending [3][36] - Fixed asset investment growth was only 0.5% in August, down from 1.6% in July, reflecting a continued decline in investment activity [3][43] Group 3: Industry Performance - In the current consolidation phase, industries such as communication, electronics, and power equipment have maintained strong performance, while the non-ferrous metals sector has seen a decline [2][23] - The coal sector has improved significantly, rising from 28th to 9th place in terms of performance during the adjustment phase, indicating a recovery in previously lagging industries [2][23] - The top-performing industries during the current phase include communication, electronics, and power equipment, with communication showing a gain of over 40% [2][23]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.30%, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index rose by 1.14% and 2.34% respectively [1] - Everbright Securities predicts increased market volatility in the short term due to profit-taking pressures and a relatively high valuation level since 2010 [1] - The firm suggests focusing on sectors such as power equipment, communication, computer, electronics, automotive, and media in the short term, while emphasizing TMT sectors for the medium to long term [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities maintains a focus on resource stocks, consumer electronics, innovative pharmaceuticals, and gaming, driven by supply constraints and global geopolitical tensions [2] - The firm highlights the importance of China's manufacturing leaders in global markets, aiming to convert market share advantages into pricing power and improved profit margins [2] - The investment strategy includes a left-side focus on chemicals and military industries, with a recent emphasis on the expansion of AI from cloud to edge computing [2] Group 3 - Xiangcai Securities anticipates a "slow bull" market for A-shares by 2025, influenced by the new "National Nine Articles" and similar investment policies [3] - The firm expects significant impacts from the ongoing "14th Five-Year Plan," with key focus areas including technology, green initiatives, and consumer services [3] - In the short term, the market is expected to exhibit wide fluctuations with a gradual upward trend, recommending attention to anti-involution sectors, AI-related technology, and environmental protection sectors [3] Group 4 - Galaxy Securities identifies four main investment lines in the construction industry during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, as urban development shifts from expansion to quality improvement [4] - The firm anticipates increased efforts in urban renewal and a new wave of global industrial transfer benefiting Southeast Asia, driving demand for infrastructure [4] - Recommended investment lines include major engineering projects, overseas expansion, high dividend stocks, and sectors with favorable supply-demand dynamics such as coal chemical, nuclear power, and cleanroom engineering [4]

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Overweight [1] Core Views - Nvidia is under further investigation for antitrust violations by the State Administration for Market Regulation, leading to a decline in its stock price and raising investor concerns about its risks in the Chinese market [3][12] - Nvidia has invested $5 billion in Intel stock, which has positively impacted Intel's stock price [5][14] - The investigation of Nvidia may create uncertainties in the global semiconductor industry and redefine the rules and landscape of the China-U.S. semiconductor supply chain, potentially accelerating the development of domestic chip companies [5][14] Summary by Sections 1. Computer Industry Views - Nvidia's antitrust violations have prompted further investigation by the State Administration for Market Regulation, causing a drop in its stock price and investor concerns about risks in the Chinese market [3][12] 2. Market Review 2.1 Computer Sector Performance - The computer industry index increased by 1.12%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.43 percentage points and the CSI 300 Index by 1.56 percentage points, while underperforming the ChiNext Index by 1.22 percentage points. Year-to-date, the computer industry index has risen by 26.57% [16][17] 2.2 Computer Stock Performance - Notable performers in the computer sector include Information Development, Tianze Information, and Kaipu Cloud, with recommendations to focus on investment opportunities in financial IT, industrial software, and trusted computing [19] 3. Technology Software Industry News 3.1 Computing Power - Huawei has launched the world's strongest computing power supernodes and clusters, supporting significant advancements in AI development [22] 3.2 Low-altitude Economy - The second International Low-altitude Economy Expo will be held in July 2026, focusing on the high-quality development of the low-altitude economy [23] 3.3 Automotive Intelligence - Hong Kong is accelerating the development of autonomous driving with government support, aiming for commercial operations [24] 3.4 Cybersecurity - New regulations require timely reporting of cybersecurity incidents, emphasizing the need for improved security operations among enterprises [25][27] 3.5 Data Elements - The National Data Bureau is advancing the construction of data element pilot zones to enhance data circulation and value [26] 3.6 Artificial Intelligence - The Zhangjiang AI Innovation Town aims to become a hub for AI innovation, providing various support measures for startups [28]

回顾历年强赎转债后续表现来看：转债价格维度，2025H2、2024 及 2019 年都出现强赎后转债价格反而阶段性向上的情况，但是 2024 年在强赎后表 现亮眼的转债多为小盘券；2019 年强赎转债样本约 21 只，其中不乏蓝思 转债、生益转债、隆基转债等行业龙头标的，且彼时权益市场整体亦处于 上行阶段。整体来看，强赎后转债价格的向上脉冲效应多在 5 个交易日后 逐渐减弱。但是转债强赎对正股形成阶段性抛压这一事实并未改变。 固定收益 | 固定收益定期 可转债周报 20250921 证券研究报告 强赎转债怎么看？ 转债周度专题 今年以来，部分强赎转债在最后交易日前的阶段表现仍然可圈可点，如华 友转债、金铜转债等，强赎转债的投资策略也因此受到市场关注。 结合强赎时转债余额对正股的稀释情况看，转债对正股的流通盘稀释率低 于 5%时，转债在公告强赎后更易出现阶段性上行，这个规律在 2024 年时 尤为明显，在 2019 年也得到验证，2025H2 公告强赎转债在公告后前 5 个 交易日也有明显上涨。而随着稀释率的提升，转债强赎后价格面临较强的 下行压力。在行业分布上，计算机行业转债公告强赎后的阶段性表现相对 较好， ...