从行业板块方面看，马年春节以来，港股市场行业板块普遍上涨，电讯业、能源业、工业领涨市场，分 别累计上涨2.62%、2.48%、2.43%，原材料业累计涨幅超1%，资讯科技业、金融业、非必需性消费等 小幅上涨；而必需性消费、综合企业、医疗保健业下跌。 个股方面，整个港股市场马年春节以来近半数股票上涨，大昌微线集团累计涨幅超100%，玖源集团、 普天通信集团、亚博科技控股等累计涨幅超50%，中国信息科技、迅策、智谱等累计涨幅超20%。 ● 本报记者 刘英杰 马年春节开市以来，港股市场震荡调整，科技新势力表现活跃，半导体板块上涨趋势明显。 分析人士认为，随着AI大模型加速落地、人形机器人产业不断催化，叠加上市公司业绩披露期渐近， 中国资产有望持续获得投资者关注。尽管短期市场有所波动，但在估值优势、产业趋势与资金流向等多 重积极因素共振下，港股春季行情有望渐次展开。 指数震荡分化 马年春节开市以来（2月20日至2月24日）的三个交易日，港股市场主要股指震荡，恒生指数累计下跌 0.43%，恒生中国企业指数累计下跌0.69%，恒生科技指数累计下跌1.80%。但从2026年1月以来，港股 三大指数仅恒生科技指数累计下跌超4 ...

Core Viewpoint - Guangdong is focusing on high-quality development, emphasizing the integration of manufacturing and service industries as a key strategy for economic growth in 2026 [1][9]. Group 1: Economic Development and Structure - Guangdong's GDP is projected to reach 14.58 trillion yuan in 2025, maintaining its position as the largest economy in China for 37 consecutive years, accounting for over 10% of the national GDP [4]. - The contribution of the tertiary industry to Guangdong's GDP is increasing, with its share rising from 55.60% in 2021 to an expected 58.25% in 2025 [10]. - In 2025, the value added of the service industry is expected to grow by 4.7%, outpacing the GDP growth rate by 0.8 percentage points [10]. Group 2: Manufacturing Sector Insights - Guangdong's industrial enterprises' revenue increased from 14.9 trillion yuan to over 19 trillion yuan from 2021 to 2025, leading the nation [5]. - Traditional industries, including automotive, petrochemicals, and textiles, account for over 70% of the manufacturing value added, demonstrating resilience and growth potential [6]. - High-tech manufacturing's share of industrial value added is expected to rise from 29.9% in 2021 to 34.7% by 2025, with industrial robot production reaching 43.5% of the national total [6]. Group 3: Integration of Manufacturing and Services - The 2026 Guangdong High-Quality Development Conference will focus on the collaborative development of manufacturing and service industries, marking a significant shift in strategy [1][9]. - The integration of advanced manufacturing and modern services is seen as crucial, driven by external factors such as global supply chain restructuring and internal demands for high-end, intelligent, and green manufacturing [9]. - The service sector's growth is supported by advancements in technology, with significant increases in revenue from information transmission, software, and IT services, including a 12.2% growth in internet-related services [10].

美元霸权的挑战正越来越严重，甚至连美国的亲密盟友也开始加入反击行列。对此，一位专家毫不客气地表示，美元时代将以悲剧的方式结束，并指出了背 后主要原因。那么，美元的霸权地位究竟为何遭遇如此严峻的挑战呢？ 美元，作为全球货币，不仅是国际结算的核心工具，也是大宗商品定价的标准，更是世界各国外汇储备中的重要资产。可以说，美元霸权是全球金融体系的 核心，涵盖了债券市场、清算体系以及信用评级等多个方面。然而，今天，全球范围内的去美元化浪潮愈演愈烈。黄金等贵金属的价格不断攀升，而美元指 数则持续下跌，2月20日的跌幅更是达到了0.13%。与此同时，美国的最大盟友欧盟本周宣布发行110亿欧元债券，意图强化欧元的地位，并推动其成为真正 的国际货币，以此挑战美元霸权。财经专家诺亚·史密斯在《亚洲时报》撰文直言，美元的时代即将以悲剧的形式结束。那么，到底是什么原因让美元的霸 权地位受到了如此严重的挑战呢？分析人士认为，主要有三大因素。 首先，美国的军事实力不断下滑，直接威胁到了美元霸权的稳定性。 其次，美元的武器化问题也大大削弱了全球对美元的信任，进而加剧了美元体系的结构性松动。 近年来，美国不断对他国实施金融制裁和支付限制，甚至 ...

Group 1 - The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in Hong Kong increased from 3.8% in the period of October to December 2025 to 3.9% in the period of November 2025 to January 2026 [1] - The total employment decreased slightly from 3,667,000 in the previous period to 3,665,900 in the latest period, a reduction of approximately 1,100 individuals [1] - The total labor force remained relatively stable, with 3,804,300 in the latest period compared to 3,805,200 in the previous period [1] Group 2 - The number of unemployed individuals (not seasonally adjusted) was approximately 138,400 in the latest period, which is similar to the 138,200 reported in the previous period [2] - The number of underemployed individuals was about 65,100 in the latest period, compared to 64,800 in the previous period, indicating little change [2] Group 3 - The Secretary for Labour and Welfare commented that the slight increase in the unemployment rate reflects ongoing economic challenges, while the overall labor market remains supported by economic growth [3] - Future employment conditions may continue to face pressure in certain industries due to operational challenges [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the dangers of hindsight bias in investing, highlighting that while it is easy to identify past opportunities and risks, it is much more challenging to predict future market movements and make informed decisions based on current data [3][8]. Group 1: Common Hindsight Biases - Investors often believe they can identify the best-performing assets, such as gold and commodities, due to geopolitical tensions and economic crises [4]. - The article notes that in 2023, the U.S. stock market led global gains, driven by advancements in AI technology, which reinforces the belief that understanding market logic can help seize opportunities [6]. - Many investors think they can avoid every risk, but historical events like trade wars and financial crises show that risks often have early warning signs that are only clear in retrospect [7]. Group 2: Investment Traps Hidden in Hindsight - The article points out that while past market trends appear clear, future predictions remain uncertain due to the complex interplay of various factors [9]. - Investors are often attracted to past performance, such as the significant gains in precious metals and technology sectors, while neglecting the associated risks of substantial drawdowns [10]. - Relying on past experiences can distort future expectations, leading to overly cautious or biased investment decisions [11]. Group 3: Correct Use of Hindsight - The article suggests focusing on the long-term pricing logic of assets rather than short-term performance, as historical data shows that stocks, bonds, and commodities generally appreciate over time [13]. - It emphasizes the importance of understanding long-term drivers, such as corporate earnings for stocks and market interest rates for bonds, while avoiding the temptation to react to short-term market fluctuations [14]. - Investors should reflect on their own investment psychology to avoid common mistakes like panic selling during downturns or chasing high returns without a strategy [15].

传统服务业稳量提质，筑牢发展根基。批发和零售业、交通运输仓储和邮政业、住宿和餐饮业作为服务 业的传统支柱领域，2025年持续发力、提质增效，实现稳步增长，有力支撑全省经济稳健向好。数据显 示，三大行业增加值分别同比增长7.0%、7.0%、6.0%，合计拉动经济增长1.4个百分点，成为服务业稳 定增长的"压舱石"。值得关注的是，传统服务业并非简单维持规模，而是在创新驱动下实现质效提升， 如青岛港（601298）升级智慧码头设施，通过"真空式自动系泊系统"大幅提升作业效率，推动交通运输 业向智能化、高效化转型，成为传统服务业提质增效的生动缩影。 新动能加速集聚，推动服务业转型升级。2025年，山东持续推动新经济领域转型升级，生产性服务业与 先进制造业融合效应加速释放，新兴服务业快速发展，为服务业高质量发展注入新活力、提供新支撑。 其中，信息传输软件和信息技术服务业、租赁和商务服务业、金融业三大新兴服务行业表现突出，增加 值分别同比增长8.1%、9.9%、5.7%，合计拉动经济增长0.8个百分点，增速远超服务业平均水平，成为 推动产业向新向优发展的重要保障。据悉，2025年全省人工智能企业营收保持30%以上增长，核 ...

美国劳动力市场企稳。推迟发布的1月全美就业非农数据增长意外加速，为此前就业增长疲弱的一年画 上阶段性句号。市场此前预计1月新增非农就业人数在5万—7.5万，本次13万数据大超预期，可能会促 使美联储进一步推迟降息，但美国劳动力市场下行风险并未消散，结构性失衡仍存。 意外增长 美国劳工统计局周三发布报告称，1月，新增非农就业人数13万，创2025年下半年以来最大增幅（均为 初值）；与此同时，失业率环比下降0.1个百分点至4.3%。分析人士指出，本次报告显示美国劳动力市 场趋于稳定，预计美联储短期内将继续按兵不动。 劳工统计局数据显示，1月，美国在医疗保健、社会援助和建筑业实现就业增长，而联邦政府和金融业 的就业减少。其中，医疗保健业当月新增就业8.2万人，社会援助行业增加4.2万人，建筑业新增3.3万 人。薪资增长方面，1月私营部门非农员工平均时薪上涨15美分，至37.17美元，同比增长3.7%。 过去数月，美国就业市场呈现出一种"冻结式"状态：企业并未大规模裁员，但也普遍放缓新增招聘。这 种格局使毕业生更难进入职场，也让不少失业者陷入漫长且收效甚微的求职过程。 东吴证券首席经济学家芦哲表示，失业率持续保持温和 ...

热点报告——外汇期货 美国 1 月非农远超预期， 短期降息预期降温 货 总体而言，1 月非农大幅超出市场预期，新增就业和薪资环比增速 均有所回升，缓解了对于就业市场恶化的担忧。但是 2025 年全年 新增就业人数大幅下修 89.8 万人，仅靠单月数据仍难以判断就业 市场已扭转下行趋势，另外 2 月非农引入人口控制调整可能导致失 业率的大幅修正。数据公布后，短期降息的必要性显著降低，降息 预期推迟，1 月大概率继续暂停降息，2025 年内预计降息 1-2 次， 预计首次降息时间推迟至 6-7 月。 ★投资建议： 近期市场继续消化沃什当选新任美联储主席带来的冲击，降息+缩 表的政策主张引发市场对于未来流动性收紧的担忧，但是短期经济 韧性和通胀黏性限制降息空间，长期美债供给挤压美联储缩表空 间，未来政策落地过程中仍面临多重掣肘。地缘政治风险也仍未消 除，市场波动仍难以降低。前期大幅上涨的贵金属和有色板块在剧 烈下跌后震荡整理，美元指数冲高回落，美债收益率曲线进一步走 陡。科技巨头的巨额资本支出也引发市场对于美国科技股财务健康 的担忧，美股延续高位震荡。 ★风险提示： 经济下行压力超预期，美联储货币政策宽松不及预期， ...

Employment Data - In January, non-farm employment increased significantly by 130,000, surpassing the expected 65,000, marking the largest increase since January 2025[7] - Private sector employment added 172,000 jobs in January, with a three-month average of 103,000 and a fourth-quarter average of 50,000[7] - The education and healthcare sectors contributed the majority of the employment increase, adding 137,000 jobs[8] Unemployment and Labor Participation - The unemployment rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 4.3%, driven by improved job demand[9] - The labor participation rate rebounded by 0.1 percentage points to 62.5%, primarily due to increases in the 20-54 age group[13] Wage Growth - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month-on-month, exceeding the expected 0.3%[19] - Year-on-year wage growth decreased slightly to 3.7%, remaining stable within the 3.7%-3.9% range since the second half of 2025[19] Market Expectations - Following the strong employment data, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in March dropped from 21.7% to 7.9%, and the probability of a cut before June decreased from 75% to 59.8%[2] - U.S. stock indices rose, the dollar strengthened, and U.S. Treasury yields increased, with the 10-year yield reaching a high of 4.2% before retreating[2]

2026年2月12日，推迟近一周的美国1月非农就业数据意外向好，短暂提振美元指数冲高，但多头未能守 涨，尾盘回吐多数涨幅后小幅收涨。尽管非农带来短期拉升，但美联储年内降息预期未根本改变，叠加 技术面承压，美元指数仍维持震荡偏弱格局，后续走势取决于通胀数据及美联储政策指引。 当地时间2月11日，美国劳工统计局数据显示，1月非农就业人口新增13万人(预期5.5万人)，较去年12月 下修后的4.8万人显著回升；失业率降至4.3%(预期4.4%)，更广泛失业指标降至8%(环比降0.4个百分 点)，印证就业市场回暖。 就业增长呈行业分化：医疗保健(+8.2万)、社会援助(+4.2万)为主要增长动力，建筑业回暖新增3.3万岗 位；而联邦政府(-3.4万)、金融行业(-2.2万)出现岗位流失。 本次报告包含2025年3月前一年基准修正数据，初始就业累计下修89.8万人(略低于预估91.1万人)。2025 年美国非农就业持续疲软，多月份负增长且全部数据遭下修，这一趋势未因前劳工统计局局长被解雇而 改变。 美联储官员表态分化：旧金山联储主席戴利于2月6日表示，美联储或需再降息1-2次应对劳动力市场疲 软，前提是关税影响消退、通 ...