Core Insights - The international commodity market has seen significant developments, particularly with BHP signing an agreement with China Mineral Resources Group to settle iron ore trades in RMB starting from Q4 of this year, indicating China's growing influence in the iron ore sector [1] - Guinea's Simandou iron ore reserve, with 2 million tons of high-grade iron ore set for its first shipment to China in mid-November, further emphasizes China's control over iron ore resources [1] Group 1: China's Position in Iron Ore Market - China is the largest steel producer and iron ore importer globally, purchasing over a billion tons annually, yet it has historically lacked pricing power due to market dominance by three major companies [3][5] - In 2021, iron ore prices surged above $200 per ton, severely impacting Chinese steel companies' profitability, with foreign mining companies earning significantly more [3][5] Group 2: Challenges Faced by China - China's domestic iron ore is of low quality, leading to high processing costs, making it uncompetitive against high-grade foreign ores [5] - The concentration of imports from Australia and Brazil has left China with limited options, resulting in a lack of bargaining power [5] Group 3: The Simandou Iron Ore Project - The Simandou mine in Guinea has over 4 billion tons of high-grade iron ore, with an average grade exceeding 65%, making it a valuable resource for low-carbon steel production [7][9] - Chinese companies are deeply involved in the development and operation of the Simandou mine, allowing China to dictate terms based on domestic demand [9] Group 4: Infrastructure Development - The development of the Simandou mine faced historical challenges, including transportation issues and ownership disputes, until Chinese enterprises initiated infrastructure projects, including a railway and deep-water port [11][13] - The railway is now operational, and the first shipment of iron ore to China is imminent, with plans for full production to supply over 80 million tons annually [13] Group 5: Market Dynamics and Future Implications - The shift to RMB pricing for iron ore by BHP indicates a recognition of China's emerging influence and the potential for changing market dynamics [15] - The high-grade ore from Simandou will significantly reduce carbon emissions in steel production, aligning with China's dual carbon goals and enhancing resource security [15][17] - The awakening of Simandou signals a transformation in the global iron ore market, moving from a passive to an active role for China in price negotiations [17]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a significant shift in the iron ore negotiation dynamics between China and Australia, highlighting China's strategic moves to leverage its position as the largest steel producer and buyer of iron ore, ultimately leading to a successful negotiation with BHP for pricing in RMB instead of USD [2][15]. Group 1: Historical Context - For 20 years, China has been at a disadvantage in iron ore pricing, paying significantly higher prices compared to the production costs of Australian mines, which are around $19 per ton, while China was paying up to $109 per ton [4][5]. - In 2024, the average profit margin for Chinese steel companies was only 0.71%, with many companies facing losses, contrasting sharply with the high profits earned by Australian miners [6][7]. Group 2: Strategic Moves by China - China established the China Mineral Resources Group in 2022, consolidating purchasing power and representing nearly 40% of the country's iron ore imports, allowing for more effective negotiations with suppliers [10]. - China has secured contracts with Brazilian mining giant Vale and other Australian companies for RMB-denominated transactions, reducing reliance on USD [11]. - The development of the Simandou iron ore project in Guinea, which has higher quality ore than Australian sources, positions China to further reduce dependence on Australian iron ore [12]. Group 3: Negotiation Outcomes - The negotiation in October 2025 resulted in a shift to 30% of transactions being settled in RMB, marking a significant change in the pricing structure and reducing the influence of the Platts index, which has been criticized for benefiting Western interests [14][15]. - The article emphasizes that this negotiation is not just about immediate price savings but represents a broader challenge to the dominance of the USD in global commodity trading [15][17]. Group 4: Future Implications - With the upcoming availability of Simandou iron ore and the increasing recycling of steel, China's position in the global steel market is expected to strengthen, allowing for more flexibility in sourcing and pricing [17]. - The article concludes that this shift marks a turning point in the relationship between China and Australia, with China now able to dictate terms rather than being at the mercy of Australian suppliers [17].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of risk management in the steel industry, showcasing innovative practices and typical experiences using futures tools to manage price volatility and optimize business decisions, ultimately supporting high-quality development of the real economy [1]. Group 1: Project Background and Company Overview - The case study involves upstream, midstream, and downstream companies in the steel industry, each with different needs such as high-price sales, inventory preservation, and low-price procurement [3]. - The upstream company is a steel production enterprise in Xinjiang with an annual capacity of approximately 3 million tons, focusing on high-strength rebar and other products [4]. - The midstream company is a digital service platform for the steel industry based in Henan, connecting over 100,000 steel producers and traders with an annual transaction scale exceeding 100 billion [4]. - The downstream company is a construction steel service provider in Jiangxi, specializing in efficient matching of steel demand and service innovation, with a processing and distribution capacity of over 800,000 tons annually [4]. Group 2: Industry Demand and Market Conditions - In 2024, the global steel demand is projected to grow by 1.7%, with China's infrastructure investment driving a 2.3% increase in demand for construction steel [6]. - Domestic consumption of rebar and hot-rolled coils showed a slight increase of 0.8% year-on-year in the first half of 2024, with prices fluctuating between 3,400 and 3,900 yuan/ton [6]. - By September 2024, with the approval of 1.2 trillion yuan in infrastructure projects and proactive production cuts by steel manufacturers, prices rebounded, with a notable 5.2% increase in rebar futures on September 19 [6]. Group 3: Risk Management Solutions - The "Strong Source to Assist Enterprises - Futures Price Stabilization Orders" project was implemented to secure sales profits for upstream steel producers, generating a profit of 37,000 yuan [7]. - The midstream trade company utilized a "synthetic long" strategy to stabilize operations, resulting in a profit of 769,215.88 yuan [11][15]. - Downstream processing companies employed European call options to reduce actual procurement costs, achieving a profit of 49,080 yuan [13][15]. Group 4: Advantages and Highlights - The project allows steel industry enterprises to lock in profits and establish stable sales/purchase channels, effectively managing price risks [16][17]. - The process is simplified, meeting the risk management needs of enterprises with a lower understanding barrier [18]. - Futures prices provide precise pricing, enhancing the accuracy of sales/purchase price positioning and mitigating risks from price fluctuations [19]. Group 5: Experience and Future Outlook - The use of options to lock in sales/purchase profits represents a new business model for steel industry enterprises, with increasing participation from small and medium-sized enterprises [20]. - Future development of the OTC derivatives market is expected to enhance the targeting and precision of risk management solutions for enterprises [20].

Macro Dynamics - The People's Bank of China will conduct a 600 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on October 15, 2025, with a term of 6 months [2] Industry Developments - Shanghai's Economic and Information Commission has issued an action plan for the high-quality development of the smart terminal industry (2026-2027), focusing on the layout of core chips such as SoC and CPU, covering X86, ARM, and RISC-V technology routes [3] - The World Steel Association forecasts that global steel demand will reach approximately 1.75 billion tons in 2025, remaining stable compared to 2024, with a mild rebound of 1.3% expected in 2026 [5] Company News - Goldman Sachs has upgraded the rating of Tigermed's A-shares from "Neutral" to "Buy," raising the target price from 62.1 yuan to 77.1 yuan, citing attractive entry points and expected growth in new orders [7] - DJI has filed an appeal against the U.S. Department of Defense regarding its designation as a "Chinese military enterprise," asserting its commitment to preventing the misuse of its products for military purposes [13] - JD.com announced a collaboration with CATL and GAC Group to launch a new car on November 9, clarifying that JD will not be directly involved in manufacturing [14] - G-bits expects a net profit increase of 57% to 86% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, driven by new game launches [15] - Grand Materials announced that its chairman has been placed under detention, but the company's operations remain normal [16] - Shenghe Resources anticipates a net profit increase of 696.82% to 782.96% for the first three quarters of 2025, attributed to favorable market conditions for rare earth products [18] - Shandong Gold expects a net profit increase of 83.9% to 98.5% for the first three quarters of 2025, driven by improved operational efficiency and rising gold prices [19] - Longbai Group has filed a lawsuit for 1.3105 billion yuan due to the infringement of trade secrets [20]

Core Points - China has suspended iron ore imports from Australia, requiring BHP to sell at market prices and accept payment in RMB [1][3] - Australia exports approximately 700 million tons of iron ore to China annually, out of a total of 1.2 billion tons imported by China [3] - Historically, Australia held significant pricing power in the iron ore market, with mining costs around $30 per ton and selling prices ranging from $103 to $267 per ton, resulting in profit margins of 343% to 890% [5] - Chinese steel companies have struggled with low profit margins, often below 5%, which has impacted their ability to invest in R&D and improve employee welfare [5] Industry Developments - To gain pricing power, China has invested in iron ore projects in Guinea and Brazil, and has recently negotiated agreements with Russia for iron ore imports [5] - The establishment of the China Mineral Resources Group in 2022 aims to centralize iron ore procurement, preventing individual steel companies from negotiating prices independently [5] - The shift to RMB payments for bulk commodity purchases is seen as a challenge to US dollar dominance, prompting concern from the US [5]

Report Information - Report Title: Steel & Iron Ore | Daily Report [3] - Report Date: September 23, 2025 [3] Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Core Views - **Rebar**: The main contract price oscillated downward with a daily decline of 1.00%, volume decreased while open interest increased. In the current situation of weak supply and increasing demand, the fundamentals of rebar have improved, but the downstream has not improved, and demand concerns remain. The improvement is not strong. The relatively positive factors are cost increase and policy expectations. With the game of multiple and short factors, it is expected that the steel price will maintain an oscillating trend. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract price declined weakly with a daily decline of 1.33%, volume increased while open interest decreased. Currently, the demand resilience of hot - rolled coils is weakening, while the supply remains at a high level. The supply - demand pattern has weakened, inventory has increased again, and the coil price continues to be under pressure. The relatively positive factor is cost increase. It is expected that the subsequent trend will be oscillating and weakening. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract price declined from a high level with a daily decline of 1.23%, both volume and open interest decreased. Currently, the demand for iron ore is performing well, supporting the high - level operation of ore prices, but the demand positive factors are weakening, supply pressure is increasing, the fundamental expectation is weakening, and the valuation is relatively high. The pre - holiday trend is cautiously optimistic, and beware of the intensification of industrial contradictions [4]. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - The Party Group of the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development will continue to consolidate the stable situation of the real estate market and strive to build a new real estate development model [6] - In August, the retail sales of household appliances by units above the designated size increased by 14.3% year - on - year. The consumer market maintained a stable operation in August [7] - Vietnamese enterprises filed an anti - circumvention investigation application against Chinese hot - rolled coils on September 10, 2025, and the Vietnamese Trade Defense Agency officially accepted it on September 18, 2025 [8] Spot Market - **Rebar**: The Shanghai price was 3,240 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the Tianjin price was 3,230 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the national average price was 3,312 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan [9] - **Hot - rolled coil**: The Shanghai price was 3,390 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the Tianjin price was 3,330 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the national average price was 3,441 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [9] - **Tangshan billet**: The price was 3,030 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [9] - **Zhangjiagang heavy scrap**: The price was 2,140 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [9] - **61.5% PB powder**: The price at Shandong ports was 795 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [9] - **Tangshan iron concentrate**: The price was 803 yuan/ton, unchanged [9] Futures Market | Variety | Closing Price | Change Rate (%) | Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | 3,155 | - 1.00 | 1,290,376 | - 362,153 | 1,881,412 | 20,270 | | Hot - rolled coil | 3,340 | - 1.33 | 649,366 | 100,542 | 1,367,093 | - 15,676 | | Iron ore | 802.5 | - 1.23 | 289,687 | - 119,815 | 546,570 | - 15,454 | [11] Related Charts - **Steel inventory**: There are charts showing the weekly changes and total inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils from 2021 - 2025 [14][16][20][21] - **Iron ore inventory**: There are charts showing the inventory of 45 ports, 247 steel mills, and domestic mines from 2021 - 2025, as well as the inventory change [19][22][25][31] - **Steel mill production**: There are charts showing the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, profitability of 247 steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, and the profit and loss of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills [26][28][32][36] Market Outlook - **Rebar**: The supply - demand pattern has improved. The weekly output decreased by 5.48 tons, and the demand increased by 11.96 tons. However, the inventory is higher than in previous years, and the demand is still at a low level in the same period in recent years. It is expected that the steel price will oscillate, and attention should be paid to the demand [37] - **Hot - rolled coil**: The supply - demand pattern has changed. The weekly output increased by 1.35 tons, and the demand decreased by 4.34 tons. The demand resilience is weakening, the supply is at a high level, and the inventory has increased. It is expected that the price will be oscillating and weakening, and attention should be paid to the demand [37] - **Iron ore**: The supply - demand pattern has changed. The terminal consumption of ore continues to rise, and the demand is good, but the demand positive factors are weakening. The supply pressure is increasing. The pre - holiday trend is cautiously optimistic, and beware of the intensification of industrial contradictions [38]

Group 1 - The company held the 31st meeting of the 10th Supervisory Board on September 22, 2025, with all three supervisors present, and the meeting was chaired by Mr. Hong Gongxiang [2][4] - The Supervisory Board approved the proposal for the reduction of capital by Maanshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. in its associate company, Baowu Water Technology Co., Ltd., stating that the proposal aligns with the company's operational needs and strategic development [3][4] - The voting result for the proposal was unanimous approval with 3 votes in favor, 0 against, and 0 abstentions [4] Group 2 - The company announced that its controlling subsidiary, Maanshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd., will reduce its capital in Baowu Water Technology Co., Ltd. through an asset valuation method, which constitutes a related party transaction [7][9] - The capital reduction agreement was signed on September 22, 2025, involving Maanshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. and 18 other shareholders, with the company's shareholding in Baowu Water decreasing from 14.977% to 3.151% [9][12] - The total equity value of Baowu Water was assessed at RMB 435.6 million, reflecting an increase of RMB 25.579 million, or 6.24%, compared to the book net asset value [12][13] Group 3 - The capital reduction will enhance the operational efficiency and effectiveness of Maanshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd., and will not significantly impact its daily operations or financial status [14][16] - The independent directors reviewed and approved the capital reduction proposal, confirming that it aligns with the company's operational strategy and does not harm the interests of shareholders, especially minority shareholders [16][18] - The Board of Directors also approved the capital reduction proposal, with the related director abstaining from the vote, and the independent directors voting in favor [17][28]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - As the new seasonal peak season begins, steel demand rebounds month-on-month but the strength is weak. The supply side of steel mills is at a relatively high level, and the steel inventory pressure is large. The output of building materials decreases, but the output of hot-rolled coils increases, and the inventory of the five major steel products accumulates. For the long-term steel demand, although there is resilience, there is no obvious increase expected in real estate, infrastructure, manufacturing, etc. The market's main concern is whether anti-involution trading will occur again. Pay attention to policy news and terminal demand. The operating strategy is to participate in the short-term long side [35]. Section Summaries 1.走势回顾 - The main contract of hot-rolled coils fell from a high and then fluctuated narrowly in the short term [7]. - After the futures rebounded and then fell, the spot price followed [8]. 2.基差价差 - The 01, 05, and 10 basis of hot-rolled coils are 46, 23, and 3 respectively [12]. - The cold-hot spread is not elaborated in detail in the text. 3.供需分析 - The production profit of hot-rolled coils is 144, the 01, 05, and 10 disk profits are 199, 172, and 213 respectively [19]. - The output of hot-rolled coils is 326.49, cold-rolled coils is 85.06, rebar is 206.45, and the five major steel products is 855.46 [22]. - The raw materials are not elaborated in detail in the text. - The inventory of hot-rolled coils is 377.99, cold-rolled coils is 180.16, rebar is 650.28, and the five major steel products is 1519.74 [28]. - The terminal demand is not elaborated in detail in the text. - The export of hot-rolled coils is flat month-on-month but remains strong year-on-year [33]. 4.后市展望 - With the start of the new seasonal peak season, steel demand recovers month-on-month but weakly. The supply of steel mills is high, and inventory pressure is large. The output of building materials decreases while that of hot-rolled coils increases, and the inventory of the five major steel products accumulates. The long-term steel demand has resilience, but there is no obvious increase expected in real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing. The market focuses on whether anti-involution trading will occur again. Pay attention to policy news and terminal demand. The operation strategy is to participate in the short-term long side [35].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the announcement of a change in leadership at Huabao Fund Management Co., Ltd, with Huang Kongwei stepping down as chairman due to age-related reasons, effective August 22 [1] - Xia Xuesong, the current party secretary of the company, has been appointed as the new chairman, bringing a wealth of experience from his previous roles at Baosteel Group and Baosteel Co., Ltd [1] - Xia Xuesong's career includes significant positions such as Secretary of the Board, Financial Director, Deputy General Manager, and General Manager at Shanghai Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd [1]

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The steel market is expected to maintain high - level oscillations, waiting for the clarity of peak - season demand. Hot - rolled coils and rebar should be watched for support levels around 3400 yuan and 3200 yuan respectively. [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices generally declined. For example, rebar spot in East China dropped from 3360 yuan/ton to 3320 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil spot in East China fell from 3470 yuan/ton to 3450 yuan/ton. [1] - **Cost and Profit**: Steel billet prices decreased by 20 yuan/ton, while slab prices remained unchanged. Profits from various regions and processes generally declined, such as East China hot - rolled coil profit dropping by 44 yuan/ton. [1] - **Production**: Daily average pig - iron output increased slightly by 0.1%, and the output of five major steel products rose by 0.3%. However, rebar production decreased by 0.3%, with electric - furnace output down 1.4% and converter output down 0.2%. Hot - rolled coil production increased by 0.2%. [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products increased by 1.7%, rebar inventory rose by 1.9%, and hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 2.5%. [1] - **Trading Volume and Demand**: Building material trading volume decreased by 8.2%, the apparent demand for five major steel products dropped by 1.7%, rebar apparent demand decreased by 9.9%, and hot - rolled coil apparent demand increased by 2.8%. [1] Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View In the short term, single - side trading suggests taking profits on long positions and waiting and seeing. Arbitrage trading recommends going long on coking coal and short on iron ore. [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased, such as the warehouse - receipt cost of PB powder dropping from 831.5 yuan/ton to 817.3 yuan/ton. Spot prices also declined, and price indices decreased slightly. [4] - **Supply**: The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 5.0% week - on - week, and the global shipping volume decreased by 0.5%. The national monthly import volume increased by 8.0%. [4] - **Demand**: The daily average pig - iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1%, the 45 - port daily average dispatch volume increased by 6.3%, while the national monthly pig - iron output decreased by 3.0% and the national monthly crude - steel output decreased by 3.9%. [4] - **Inventory**: The 45 - port inventory increased by 0.7%, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased slightly by 0.0%, and the inventory - available days of 64 steel mills increased by 5.0%. [4] Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View For coke, speculative trading suggests taking profits and waiting and seeing, and arbitrage trading recommends going long on coke and short on iron ore. For coking coal, speculative trading also suggests taking profits on long positions and waiting and seeing, and arbitrage trading recommends going long on coking coal and short on iron ore. [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Prices and Spreads**: Coke prices generally declined, such as the 09 - contract price of coke dropping from 1660 yuan/ton to 1636 yuan/ton. Coking coal prices had mixed trends, with the 09 - contract price of coking coal dropping from 1101 yuan/ton to 1066 yuan/ton. [5] - **Supply**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.4%, while the 247 - steel - mill daily average output decreased by 0.1%. The raw - coal output of coal mines decreased by 0.3%, and the clean - coal output increased by 0.1%. [5] - **Demand**: The pig - iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.2%. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.4%, and the 247 - steel - mill daily average output decreased by 0.1%. [5] - **Inventory**: Coke total inventory decreased by 2.2%, the inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 10.4%, and the 247 - steel - mill inventory decreased by 1.5%. Coking coal inventory in coal mines decreased slightly, and the inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 1.1%. [5]