Group 1 - Federal Reserve Governor Bowman has been in contact with staff from Goldman Sachs, Davis Polk, and BPI [1]

Core Viewpoint - The international market experienced significant fluctuations last week, influenced by changes in tariff situations, leading to volatility in gold prices and a rebound in U.S. stock markets. Key economic data releases and earnings reports are anticipated this week, which may impact market sentiment and economic forecasts [2][3][4]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. GDP for Q1 is expected to show a sharp decline from 2.4% in Q4 to around 0.5%, reflecting the economic impact of tariff expectations [3]. - The upcoming non-farm payroll report will be closely monitored, especially after March's employment figures exceeded expectations [3]. - The PCE data for March is crucial as it is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator, alongside other forward-looking data such as the ISM manufacturing index and consumer confidence index [3]. Earnings Reports - The earnings season is entering a busy week with major companies like Visa, Coca-Cola, Pfizer, Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Amazon, and Berkshire Hathaway set to report their financial results [4]. - Warren Buffett will also be present at the annual Berkshire shareholder meeting, which is a significant event for investors [4]. Commodity Market - International oil prices have declined due to concerns over oversupply and tariff uncertainties, with WTI crude oil dropping 1.55% to $63.02 per barrel and Brent crude oil falling 1.60% to $66.87 per barrel [5]. - Gold prices have also retreated, with COMEX gold futures down 0.79% to $3282.40 per ounce, despite a year-to-date increase of over 25% [5]. European Economic Outlook - The Eurozone's PMI data indicates a challenging economic landscape due to new tariffs, with ECB President Lagarde noting increased risks to economic growth [6]. - Upcoming inflation data and Q1 GDP figures for the Eurozone will be critical in shaping future monetary policy, as inflation continues to decline [6]. Upcoming Events - A detailed schedule of key economic releases and earnings reports is outlined for the week, including various countries' GDP, CPI, and manufacturing PMI data [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline of the US dollar, which has fallen below the 98 mark, leading to a rise in Asian currencies and increased interest in gold as a safe-haven asset [1][3]. Currency and Dollar Performance - The US dollar index has dropped to a three-year low, with a decline of over 1.4% on April 21, 2025, and a year-to-date increase of approximately 11.38% for the euro against the dollar and 12% for the yen [3][4]. - Goldman Sachs estimates that the dollar is overvalued by 20%, attributing this to the adverse effects of US tariff policies on the dollar's credibility [2][4]. Gold Market Dynamics - Gold has emerged as the primary beneficiary of the dollar's decline, with record inflows into gold funds amounting to $8 billion in the past week, surpassing stock fund inflows of $7.9 billion [5][6]. - The price of gold futures reached over $3,400 per ounce, while domestic gold prices exceeded 800 yuan per gram, reflecting a strong demand for gold as a hedge against dollar asset risks [2][5]. Investment Trends - The inflow into gold ETFs has been robust, with a continuous increase for 12 weeks, marking the longest streak since 2022. The total inflow for the first quarter of 2025 reached $21 billion, with 226 tons of gold added [6]. - In China, gold ETF inflows were approximately 5.6 billion yuan in March, contributing to a total asset management scale of 101 billion yuan, a record high [6]. Economic Outlook - Analysts suggest that the ongoing issues with the dollar's credibility are likely to persist, with the US economy facing potential recession or stagflation. This situation may lead to increased investment in precious metals [7].

Group 1 - The US-China trade war has escalated, with the US increasing tariffs on Chinese products from an initial 34% to 145% [1] - Despite the trade tensions, many American-owned brands disguised as domestic products are thriving in the Chinese market [4] - Harbin Beer, often mistaken as a local brand, was acquired by the American company Anheuser-Busch in 2004 [3][8] Group 2 - Yida chewing gum, popular in China, is owned by the American company Wrigley, which entered the Chinese market in 1996 [11] - Other Wrigley products, such as Green Arrow, are also American brands that perform well in China [14] - Shuanghui Group, known for its hot dogs, was sold to American firms in 2007, with significant ownership by American investor Rothschild [18][22] Group 3 - Jinlongyu, a leading cooking oil brand in China, is part of the "Yihai Kerry" group, which is a joint venture involving the American company ADM [23][25][27] - Dabao, a well-known Chinese skincare brand, was acquired by Johnson & Johnson in 2008, despite its Chinese branding [29][33] - Procter & Gamble, an American company, owns several brands in China, including Head & Shoulders and Pampers, which are often perceived as domestic products [35]