1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel prices may face downward pressure at low levels, with a slight expected decline in costs and limited upside potential. The support at the mine end is weakening, and the smelting end restricts the upside elasticity of nickel prices [1]. - Stainless steel is operating with weak supply and demand, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. The short - term off - season demand is flat, and the negative feedback is transmitted to the supply side. Although the inventory has been slightly digested and the profit of steel mills has been marginally repaired, the driving force for continuous upward repair of steel prices is weak [2]. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Nickel Fundamental Analysis - The support at the nickel mine end is marginally loosening. The premium of Indonesian nickel ore has marginally declined by 2 - 25 US dollars/wet ton, and the cash cost of the pyrometallurgical process is expected to slightly decrease by about 1.3%. Market concerns about the mine end have eased due to the news of increased Indonesian quotas, and the speculative sentiment has cooled [1]. - The smelting end restricts the upside elasticity of nickel prices. The negative feedback in the stainless - steel industry from June to July has affected the supply side. In July, the production schedule is 312,000 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month decrease of 4% and 1% respectively. Nickel - iron inventory has accumulated to a historical high, and the price of nickel - iron is under pressure, which restricts the upside elasticity of refined nickel valuation. Also, the inventory accumulation in the refined nickel segment is less than expected, and the operating capacity pressure is increasing marginally, limiting the upside space [1]. Stainless - Steel Fundamental Analysis - Stainless - steel supply and demand are both weak. The short - term off - season demand is flat, and the increase in US tariffs on household appliances containing steel parts has led to negative feedback on the supply side. In July, the marginal supply - demand may continue to be weak. The overall high factory inventory has slightly decreased, and the social inventory has been slightly reduced. With the raw material end offering concessions, the profit of steel mills has been marginally repaired [2]. - The production schedule of stainless steel in July is 31,200 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month decrease of 4% and 1% respectively, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate has declined to 3%. In May, China's stainless - steel imports were 125,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17,000 tons, and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 27%. Indonesia's production schedule in July has recovered to 43,000 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 33% and 32% respectively, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2% [2]. - The surplus pressure has shifted from stainless steel to nickel - iron. The nickel - iron inventory has increased to a historical high. At the end of June, the nickel - iron inventory was 37,534 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 66% and 8% respectively. The price of nickel - iron raw materials has decreased to 910 yuan/nickel, and the cash cost center of stainless - steel gross basis has moved down to about 12,500 yuan/ton, and the delivery profit has been marginally repaired [2]. Inventory Changes - China's refined nickel social inventory has increased by 1,429 tons to 38,020 tons. Among them, the warehouse receipt inventory has decreased by 198 tons to 21,059 tons, the spot inventory has increased by 1,607 tons to 11,571 tons, and the bonded area inventory has increased by 20 tons to 5,390 tons. The LME nickel inventory has decreased by 1,824 tons to 202,470 tons [3]. - The nickel - iron inventory at the end of June was 37,534 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 66% and 8% respectively, and the inventory pressure has increased marginally [4]. - On July 3, 2025, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.1568 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.20%. Among them, the inventory of cold - rolled stainless steel was 625,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.53%, and the inventory of hot - rolled stainless steel was 531,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.18% [4]. - The nickel - ore inventory at Chinese ports has increased by 1.1261 million wet tons to 8.7184 million wet tons. Among them, the Philippine nickel ore is 8.6424 million wet tons. Classified by nickel - ore grade, the low - nickel and high - iron ore is 4.4548 million wet tons, and the medium - and high - grade nickel ore is 4.2636 million wet tons [6]. Market News - On March 3, Ontario Premier Ford proposed that Ontario's minerals are also crucial in the tariff struggle and may stop exporting nickel to the US [7]. - On April 27, the first - phase project of the Indonesian CNI nickel - iron RKEF, EPC - contracted by China ENFI, successfully produced nickel - iron, marking the project's entry into the trial - production stage. The project is located in Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia, producing nickel - iron with a grade of 22%, and each production line has an annual output of about 12,500 tons of metallic nickel [7]. - An important nickel smelter in an Indonesian metal - processing park has resumed production. The plant's almost entire production capacity was shut down in March due to a fatal landslide in the tailings reservoir area. Currently, the production capacity of PT QMB New Energy Materials has recovered to 70% - 80% [7]. - An Indonesian cold - rolling mill has tentatively decided to continue the shutdown for maintenance from June to July, and may adjust according to the market situation later. This shutdown is expected to affect the production volume by 110,000 - 130,000 tons, mainly affecting the production of 300 - series stainless steel. The mill had already cut production by 40% - 50% in May due to the sluggish market [7]. - The Philippine Nickel Industry Association (PNIA) welcomes the decision of the two - house committee to remove the raw - ore export ban clause from the final version of the mining fiscal system bill [8]. - Environmental violations have been found in the Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park (IMIP), including suspected poor wastewater management, air pollution, and the use of unlicensed tailings areas. The deputy minister in charge of environmental law enforcement said that companies found to have violated the law in IMIP may be fined, and the entire industrial park will be audited [8]. Weekly Key Data Tracking - The closing price of the main Shanghai nickel contract is 122,270 yuan, with changes compared to different time points (T - 1, T - 5, etc.) as shown in the table. The closing price of the main stainless - steel contract is 12,730 yuan, also with corresponding changes [11]. - The trading volume of the main Shanghai nickel contract is 111,042 lots, and that of the main stainless - steel contract is 102,164 lots, with changes compared to different time points [11]. - Other data such as the price of 1 imported nickel, Russian nickel premium and discount, nickel - bean premium and discount, and various spreads and costs are also provided in the table [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For nickel, the support at the mine end is marginally loosening, and the logic at the smelting end restricts the upside elasticity. The downside space of nickel prices depends on the support at the mine end. The news of increased quotas in Indonesia affects the mine - end expectations, and the third quarter is often the stage of quota release and premium callback. In July, the premium of Indonesian nickel ore may slightly decline. The convergence of the economic difference between Philippine and Indonesian ore prices may limit the upside elasticity of Indonesian nickel ore. After the mine - end logic becomes less significant, if pricing returns to the smelting - end fundamentals, the upside elasticity may be pressured by supply elasticity. In July, the stainless - steel production in China and Indonesia stabilizes, nickel - iron inventory accumulates to a historical high, and the negative feedback pressures the nickel - iron valuation, which restricts the upside elasticity of refined - nickel valuation. The inventory accumulation in the refined - nickel segment is less than expected, while the operating capacity increases marginally, and supply elasticity limits the upside space [1]. - For stainless steel, it operates with weak supply and demand, the inventory has a slight reduction, and the steel price is marginally repaired but with limited upside elasticity. The macro - expectation improves marginally, boosting the market. However, the tariff increase on household appliances containing steel parts in the US and the weak short - term off - season demand lead to negative feedback on supply. In July, the marginal supply - demand may remain weak. After the negative feedback leads to a decline in actual supply, the overall high factory inventory slightly decreases, and the social inventory marginally reduces. If the production - cut expectation is continuously verified in the inventory, the suppression of stainless - steel profit by over - supply may ease, but the overall cost center moves down, and the raw - material end of nickel - iron gives up profits, limiting the upside repair elasticity of steel prices [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless - Steel Fundamentals - **Nickel fundamentals**: The support at the mine end is marginally loosening, and the smelting - end logic restricts the upside elasticity. The news of increased Indonesian quotas affects mine - end expectations, and the third - quarter is a stage of quota release and premium callback. The convergence of the economic difference between Philippine and Indonesian ore prices may limit the upside elasticity of Indonesian nickel ore. After the mine - end logic fades, the upside elasticity may be pressured by supply elasticity. The inventory accumulation in the refined - nickel segment is less than expected, and the operating capacity increases marginally [1]. - **Stainless - steel fundamentals**: It operates with weak supply and demand, the inventory has a slight reduction, and the steel price is marginally repaired but with limited upside elasticity. The macro - expectation improves marginally, but the tariff increase in the US and weak short - term demand lead to negative feedback on supply. In July, the marginal supply - demand may remain weak. The production in China and Indonesia has different trends, and after the negative feedback on supply, the factory inventory slightly decreases, and the social inventory marginally reduces [2]. Inventory Changes - **Nickel inventory**: The social inventory of refined nickel in China increases by 120 tons to 36,591 tons, with a decrease in warehouse - receipt inventory and an increase in spot inventory, and the bonded - area inventory remains unchanged. The LME nickel inventory decreases by 846 tons to 204,294 tons. The nickel - iron inventory in mid - June increases year - on - year and month - on - month, and the port nickel - ore inventory in China increases by 199,900 wet tons to 7.5923 million wet tons [3][5]. - **Stainless - steel inventory**: The total social inventory of stainless steel decreases by 0.25% week - on - week. The cold - rolled stainless - steel inventory decreases, while the hot - rolled stainless - steel inventory increases. The inventory of the 300 - series stainless steel also shows a decrease in the total and cold - rolled inventory and an increase in the hot - rolled inventory [3]. Market News - Canada's Ontario Province may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff threats [6]. - The first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron RKEF successfully produces nickel - iron and enters the trial - production stage, with an annual production of about 12,500 tons of metallic nickel per line [6]. - A nickel smelter in an important Indonesian metal - processing park resumes production, and the capacity of the Indonesian QMB New Energy Materials has recovered to 70% - 80% [6]. - An Indonesian cold - rolling mill suspends production for maintenance from June to July, which may affect the production of 110,000 - 130,000 tons, mainly of the 300 - series [6]. - The Philippine Nickel Industry Association welcomes the decision to remove the raw - ore export ban from the final version of the mining fiscal - system bill [7]. - Environmental violations are found in the Indonesian Morowali Industrial Park, and the relevant department may fine the confirmed illegal companies and audit the entire park [7]. Weekly Key Data Tracking - **Futures data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and other relevant data of Shanghai nickel and stainless - steel futures, as well as the prices, premiums, and spreads of related products such as imported nickel, nickel - iron, and stainless - steel products, are presented in the table, showing different trends compared with previous periods [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For nickel, the expectation of the nickel ore end in the long - term is loosening, and the smelting end restricts the upside elasticity. The global visible inventory is accumulating marginally. The high cost of pyrometallurgical integration in Indonesia may limit the downside space of nickel prices, but news about increased quotas in Indonesia and potential changes in the Philippines' export policy have cooled market concerns and speculation about the ore end. The smelting end lacks demand highlights, and supply elasticity restricts the upside space [1]. - For stainless steel, the supply and demand are both weakening marginally, and the steel price is oscillating at a low level. The pressure release after the easing of tariffs is not obvious, and new tariffs from the US and weak off - season demand restrict the upside elasticity of steel prices. Negative feedback has spread to the supply side, and the overall inventory needs to be digested. In the short - term, the steel price is expected to oscillate at a low level, and in the long - term, the pressure on the profit link may ease if production cuts continue and an inventory inflection point is seen, but the steel price center may not rise significantly [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamentals Nickel - The logic of the ore end is weakening, and the smelting end restricts the upside of nickel prices. The global refined nickel visible inventory is accumulating, and there are expectations of more potential supply in the medium - term. The negative feedback from stainless steel has led to increased production cuts and pressure on ferronickel, which in turn restricts the upside of refined nickel valuations [1]. Stainless Steel - Production and imports are declining marginally, and the current inventory is still under pressure. The supply - demand relationship has turned weak. The production schedule in June shows a year - on - year and month - on - month decline, and the inventory needs to be digested. The steel price is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short - term [2]. Inventory Changes - China's refined nickel social inventory decreased by 1,437 tons to 36,471 tons, with decreases in warehouse receipt, spot, and bonded area inventories. LME nickel inventory increased by 7,602 tons to 205,140 tons [3]. - The ferronickel inventory in mid - June increased by 58% year - on - year and 10% month - on - month, with increasing inventory pressure [4]. - The total social inventory of stainless steel increased by 1.04% week - on - week, with increases in cold - rolled, hot - rolled, and 300 - series inventories [4]. - China's port nickel ore inventory increased by 173,700 wet tons to 7.3924 million wet tons, an increase of 2.41% [6]. Market News - In March, the Ontario provincial governor of Canada proposed to stop exporting nickel to the US in response to US tariff threats [7]. - In April, the first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI ferronickel RKEF, EPC - contracted by China ENFI, successfully produced ferronickel and entered the trial - production stage [7]. - An overseas nickel smelter in Indonesia has resumed production, and the capacity of PT QMB New Energy Materials has recovered to 70% - 80% [7]. - An Indonesian cold - rolling mill plans to continue maintenance from June to July, which may affect 110,000 - 130,000 tons of production, mainly 300 - series [7]. - The Philippine Nickel Industry Association welcomes the decision to remove the raw ore export ban from the final version of the mining fiscal system bill [8]. - Environmental violations have been found in the Morowali Industrial Park in Indonesia, and the relevant department may fine the companies involved and will audit the entire park [8]. Key Data Tracking - The report provides a table of weekly key data for nickel and stainless steel, including futures prices, trading volumes, premiums, spreads, and prices of related products in the industrial chain [11]. Charts - The report includes multiple charts showing the prices, trading volumes, inventories, and spreads of nickel and stainless steel futures contracts, as well as the prices and inventories of related raw materials [12][15][17][19][22][24][26]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the second half of the year, nickel and stainless steel prices may face pressure and fluctuate at low levels, with the center of the fluctuation likely to move down compared to the first half. The reference range for Shanghai nickel is 110,000 - 127,000 yuan/ton, and for stainless steel, it is 12,000 - 13,100 yuan/ton [2]. - The core logic for the nickel market in the first half of the year was the tight supply of nickel ore, but market concerns may become dull in the second half. The supply elasticity of refined nickel may limit the upside space, and the downstream demand for nickel is mediocre, so the center of the nickel price fluctuation may move down [2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. 2025 H1 Review of Nickel and Stainless Steel Trends 1.1 Shanghai Nickel Market Review - From January to February 2025, nickel prices fluctuated in the range of 120,000 - 130,000 yuan/ton. Despite a slight increase in inventory at the smelting end, it was lower than expected. High ore prices provided cost support for pyrometallurgy, and nickel prices oscillated in a multi - empty game [5]. - From March to April 2025, price volatility increased significantly. Nickel prices first rose and then fell, fluctuating in the range of 115,000 - 136,000 yuan/ton. Intensified ore - end contradictions led to a significant increase in nickel ore premiums, pushing up pyrometallurgical smelting costs. However, concerns about Trump's tariff policies and the release of supply elasticity in Indonesia limited the upside of refined nickel prices [6]. - From May to June 2025, nickel prices returned to range - bound fluctuations, but the center of the fluctuation gradually moved down, in the range of about 118,000 - 127,000 yuan/ton. The tight supply of Indonesian nickel ore continued, but market concerns about the ore end eased. Negative feedback from stainless steel production cuts also limited the upside of nickel prices [7]. 1.2 Stainless Steel Market Review - From January to March 2025, steel prices oscillated upward due to the combined effect of rising costs and peak - season expectations. The cost of stainless steel increased, and the price reached 13,800 yuan/ton, with a maximum cumulative increase of 8% [14]. - From April to May 2025, steel prices mainly followed overseas tariff policies. Trump's tariff policies led to a sharp decline in market risk appetite, and steel prices dropped. After the relaxation of tariffs, steel prices rose to 13,100 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of about 3% [14]. - In early June 2025, the center of steel price fluctuations moved down. The supply elasticity of ferronickel was released, and stainless steel entered a negative - feedback logic, with costs decreasing and inventory digestion slow [15]. 2. Supply 2.1 Front - end Smelting - **Short - term Supply**: As of May 2025, the cumulative output of Indonesian hydrometallurgical intermediate products was 184,000 tons (year - on - year increase of 73,000 tons), and the single - month output in May was 39,000 tons. The cumulative output of pyrometallurgical intermediate products was 114,000 tons (year - on - year decrease of 14,000 tons), and the single - month output in May was 16,000 tons. It is expected that the actual supply of Indonesian MHP in 2025 may increase by 44% (150,000 tons) year - on - year to 480,000 tons, while the actual supply of nickel matte may maintain a negative growth rate [20][21][25]. - **Long - term Consideration**: Hydrometallurgy has cost advantages, but it is difficult for it to make deep concessions. Although the profits of hydrometallurgical projects are considerable, the initial investment is high, and the pay - back period is long. A sharp decline in nickel prices may impact future hydrometallurgical supply expectations [32][36]. 2.2 Back - end Smelting - The supply of back - end smelting, including refined nickel and nickel sulfate, is in an over - supply situation. The supply increment of refined nickel is mainly in China. It is expected that the global refined nickel supply will increase by 9% (90,000 tons) year - on - year to 1.11 million tons in 2025. The global supply of nickel sulfate raw materials is expected to slightly decrease year - on - year to 420,000 tons [40][41][55]. 2.3 Ferronickel and Stainless Steel - **Ferronickel**: As of May 2025, the cumulative output of Indonesian ferronickel was 704,000 tons (year - on - year increase of 104,000 tons), and that of Chinese ferronickel was 131,000 tons (year - on - year decrease of 5,000 tons). It is expected that the global ferronickel supply will increase by 4.8% (100,000 tons) year - on - year to 2.17 million tons in 2025 [62][65]. - **Stainless Steel**: As of May 2025, the cumulative output of Chinese stainless steel was 16.1 million tons (year - on - year increase of 780,000 tons), and that of Indonesian stainless steel was 2.12 million tons (year - on - year decrease of 9,000 tons). Supply elasticity limits the profit range, and stainless steel valuation may be anchored to costs. It is expected that in 2025, stainless steel production and imports will change by +4% and - 23% year - on - year to 39.85 million tons and 1.45 million tons respectively, with a total supply growth rate of about 2.9% [75][78][80]. 2.4 Nickel Ore - In the short term, the tight supply of nickel ore is still a reality, but this supporting logic may become dull in the second half of the year. Concerns about Philippine policies have eased, and rainfall disturbances are expected to subside. Market concerns about Indonesian nickel ore may also ease in the second half of the year [87][88][91].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Nickel**: The concern about the nickel ore end has cooled down, while the supply elasticity of the smelting end is sufficient. The potential removal of the raw ore export ban clause in the final version of the mining fiscal system bill may ease the speculation on the ore end. The supply of the smelting end is abundant, and the stainless - steel demand is weak, which may limit the upside of nickel prices [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The supply and demand are both weak, and the destocking in reality is less than expected. The steel price will fluctuate at a low level in the short term. The overseas tariff pressure and the off - season demand limit the upside of steel prices. The negative feedback has led to supply cuts [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals 3.1.1 Nickel - The short - term strength of the nickel ore end remains, but the long - term concern has decreased. The potential removal of the export ban in the Philippines and the news of increased quotas in Indonesia have affected the market expectations. The smelting end has sufficient supply elasticity, and the weak stainless - steel demand may lead to a surplus in the nickel - iron market and limit the upside of refined nickel prices [1]. 3.1.2 Stainless Steel - The supply and demand are both weak. The negative feedback has led to production cuts. The domestic and Indonesian stainless - steel production in June has decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. The overseas tariff pressure and the off - season demand limit the upside of steel prices. The steel price is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term [2]. 3.2 Inventory Changes - **Refined Nickel**: The Chinese refined nickel social inventory decreased by 92 tons to 37,908 tons. The LME nickel inventory decreased by 2,568 tons to 197,538 tons [3]. - **Nickel - Iron**: The nickel - iron inventory at the end of May was 31,462 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 59% and 6% respectively, with increasing inventory pressure [4]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel social inventory was 1,145,508 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.07%. The cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless - steel inventories also increased [4]. - **Nickel Ore**: The Chinese nickel ore inventory increased by 250,100 wet tons to 7.2187 million wet tons [5]. 3.3 Market News - In March, the Ontario provincial governor in Canada threatened to stop exporting nickel to the US due to US tariff threats [6]. - In April, the first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron RKEF successfully produced nickel - iron, with an annual production of about 12,500 tons of nickel metal per line [6]. - An important nickel smelter in Indonesia has resumed production, and the capacity of PT QMB New Energy Materials has recovered to 70% - 80% [6]. - An Indonesian cold - rolling mill will continue to shut down for maintenance from June to July, affecting about 110,000 - 130,000 tons of production, mainly 300 - series [6]. - The Philippine Nickel Industry Association welcomes the removal of the raw ore export ban clause from the final version of the mining fiscal system bill [7]. 3.4 Weekly Key Data Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 119,920, and that of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,550 [9]. - **Trading Volumes**: The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 86,947, and that of the stainless - steel main contract was 130,382 [9]. - **Industrial Chain Data**: Data such as the price of 1 imported nickel, nickel - iron, stainless - steel products, and relevant spreads and premiums are provided in the table [9].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Nickel prices are likely to be subject to the long - short game between reality and expectations, continuing to fluctuate in the short term. If the long - term mine - end logic weakens, there may be a trading logic of "de - valuation - de - production" pressure on refined nickel [1]. - Stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. Negative feedback and inventory pressure will weigh on the short - term market, while the cost side limits the downward elasticity. Increased production cuts in June will ease the pressure in the long - term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Nickel Fundamental Analysis - **Mine end**: The short - term support logic of the nickel ore end remains unchanged. The premium of Indonesian nickel ore in June in some parks is determined, with the margin flat compared to May. The market's concern about the increase in Indonesian quotas has cooled, and the convergence of the economic difference between Philippine and Indonesian ore prices may limit the upside elasticity of Indonesian nickel ore [1]. - **Smelting end**: The global visible inventory accumulation is less than expected due to replenishment demand, but the overall inventory is high. There is still an expectation of more potential supply release in the medium term, and nickel prices may face "de - valuation - de - production" pressure, which restricts the upside elasticity of nickel prices [1]. Stainless Steel Fundamental Analysis - **Supply side**: The production schedule of stainless steel in China in June is 3.239 million tons, with a year - on - year/month - on - month decrease of 1%/5%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate has dropped to 4%. Two Indonesian stainless steel producers have marginally cut production, with the production schedule in June at 360,000 tons, a year - on - year/month - on - month decrease of 9%/0%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate has dropped to - 2%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of China's stainless steel import supply is expected to drop to nearly - 28% in June, and the total supply (production + imports) growth rate may be adjusted down to about 2.2% [2]. - **Demand side**: The short - term off - season and the digestion pressure of the previous high production schedule limit the upside elasticity of steel prices. The demand growth rate is expected to be around 2% - 3%. If production cuts are implemented as scheduled from June to July, the long - term oversupply pressure may be alleviated to some extent [2]. - **Cost side**: The negative feedback of production cuts puts pressure on ferronickel, which gives up some profits, but the Indonesian ore end still provides short - term support for ferronickel, thus supporting the cost of stainless steel [2]. Inventory Changes - **Refined nickel**: China's refined nickel social inventory decreased by 1,789 tons to 38,000 tons. LME nickel inventory increased by 726 tons to 200,106 tons [3]. - **Ferronickel**: The ferronickel inventory at the end of May was 31,462 tons, with a year - on - year/month - on - month increase of 59%/6%, and the inventory pressure increased marginally [4]. - **Stainless steel**: The stainless steel social inventory was 1,122,258 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 2.06%. The inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 680,552 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1.71% [4][5]. - **Nickel ore**: China's port nickel ore inventory decreased by 290,200 wet tons to 6.9686 million wet tons [5]. Market News - In March, the governor of Ontario, Canada, proposed to stop exporting nickel to the US in response to US tariff threats [6]. - In April, the first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI ferronickel RKEF successfully produced ferronickel, entering the trial production stage, with an annual production of about 12,500 tons of nickel metal per line [6]. - An overseas nickel smelter in Indonesia has resumed production, and the capacity of PT QMB New Energy Materials has recovered to 70% - 80% [6]. - The Philippine parliament is discussing a bill to ban nickel ore exports, and there is market news that the Philippine government plans to implement a nickel ore export ban from June 2025, but the authenticity and start time are yet to be verified [6]. - An Indonesian cold - rolling mill plans to continue production suspension and maintenance from June to July, which is expected to affect 110,000 - 130,000 tons of production, mainly 300 - series [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Nickel prices are expected to continue to oscillate at low levels in the short term, with short - term support from the ore end and concerns about the long - term market easing, and ample supply expectations from the smelting end [1] - Stainless steel prices may oscillate within a range, with negative feedback pressure transmitted to the supply side, resulting in a weakening of both supply and demand at the margin [2] Summary by Related Contents Nickel Fundamental Analysis - Ore end: High - grade nickel ore in Indonesia is tight, supporting the cost of the integrated pyrometallurgical process. The premium of 1.6% nickel ore has increased to $27 per wet ton, with the total price rising by 26% year - on - year to $54.3 per wet ton. However, the upward speed of the Indonesian ore end is expected to slow down, and the third quarter may be a key stage for quota release and premium adjustment. The market still anticipates quota release [1] - Smelting end: Due to the negative feedback of stainless steel production cuts on ferronickel, ferronickel has returned to inventory accumulation. The ferronickel inventory in mid - May was 29,554.5 tons, up 36% year - on - year and 4% month - on - month. The supply of intermediate products has increased marginally, which may drag down the valuation of refined nickel [1] - Inventory: LME nickel inventory has increased this week, and refined nickel still has the possibility of returning to inventory accumulation in the long term [1] Stainless Steel Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Negative feedback has led to an increase in production cuts. The stainless steel production plan for May is 3.425 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 2% and a month - on - month increase of 0%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate has declined to 5%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of domestic stainless steel imports is expected to decline to nearly - 29% in June, and the supply growth rate may be adjusted down to about 3.3% [2] - Demand: From January to April, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of stainless steel apparent demand plus exports was + 3.0% [2] - Inventory: Stainless steel social inventory has increased by 0.85% week - on - week, with cold - rolled stainless steel inventory decreasing by 5.39% and hot - rolled stainless steel inventory increasing by 10.59%. The inventory accumulation is mainly in the 400 series, while the 300 series inventory has decreased by 3.42% [6] Inventory Changes - Refined nickel: Chinese refined nickel social inventory has decreased by 840 tons to 42,088 tons. LME nickel inventory has increased by 3,414 tons to 198,636 tons [3] - Ferronickel: The ferronickel inventory at the end of mid - May was 29,554.5 tons, up 36% year - on - year and 4% month - on - month [4] - Stainless steel: Stainless steel social inventory is 1,117,668 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.85% [6] - Nickel ore: The nickel ore inventory at 14 Chinese ports has increased by 252,700 wet tons to 7.3151 million wet tons, mainly from the Philippines [6] Market News - Policy adjustment: Indonesia has increased the resource tax rates for nickel ore, ferronickel, nickel pig iron, and nickel matte [7] - Production news: The first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI ferronickel RKEF has successfully produced ferronickel and entered the trial production stage. A nickel smelter in Indonesia has resumed production, and its capacity has recovered to 70% - 80%. An Indonesian cold - rolling mill will continue its shutdown for maintenance in June and July, which is expected to affect the production volume of 110,000 - 130,000 tons, mainly for the 300 series [7][8] - Export ban news: The Philippines is discussing a bill to ban nickel ore exports, and there are also rumors about a nickel ore export ban starting in June 2025, but the authenticity and start time are yet to be verified [8]

Core Viewpoint - The global nickel market in 2024 continues to experience volatility, characterized by a "roller coaster" trend with prices peaking and then retreating due to oversupply and weak demand [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global nickel market is currently oversupplied, with an expected production of 3.52 million tons in 2024, a 4.7% increase year-on-year, primarily driven by Indonesia, which contributes three-quarters of the global supply [5] - Indonesia's export ban on nickel ore has led to a focus on building a high-value-added industry domestically, enhancing overall resource utilization efficiency [6] - The demand for nickel is expected to rise due to the long-term growth trend in the electric vehicle (EV) industry, with global EV sales projected to reach 18.236 million units in 2024, a 24.4% increase year-on-year [7] - The demand for nickel is also supported by robust stainless steel production in China, with crude stainless steel output expected to reach 39.4411 million tons in 2024, a 7.54% increase year-on-year [8] Group 2: Company Performance - Company "力勤资源" has achieved revenue of RMB 29.23 billion in 2024, a 38.8% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of RMB 1.77 billion, a 68.7% increase year-on-year, demonstrating resilience in a challenging market [4] - The company has established a competitive edge through advanced hydrometallurgical processes and a global resource layout, allowing it to thrive amid industry pressures [4] Group 3: Technological Innovations - The company is leveraging both hydrometallurgical (HPAL) and pyrometallurgical (RKEF) technologies to create a dual supply system that efficiently utilizes nickel resources [10] - The hydrometallurgical project on Obi Island has a planned capacity of 120,000 tons of nickel and 14,250 tons of cobalt, with the first two phases achieving production in record time [10][11] - The company has also implemented innovative technologies to improve energy efficiency and reduce costs in its pyrometallurgical processes, with a projected annual capacity of 280,000 tons of nickel iron by 2026 [12] Group 4: Environmental and Economic Synergy - The company is focusing on extracting valuable metals from hydrometallurgical tailings, which is expected to create new profit growth points while alleviating environmental pressures [13] - The dual approach of hydrometallurgical and pyrometallurgical processes allows the company to balance market risks and enhance overall resource utilization efficiency [12][14]