打节 | 【公司 风险提示 风险因素:印尼政策风险;需求增长超预期。 研究员: 库存高位压制 镍价破位下行 中信期货研究所 有色与新材料团队 最新动态及原因 2025年12月16日，沪银大幅下跌超2.4%。盘中一度跌破1.21万/吨的低位。辖破位下跌主要受到库存高位压制，LME库存已于25万吨以上维持约2个月。且昨日LME库存和沪接食单均再 度出现一定程度的累积。基本面过剩下库存仍有进一步增长趋势。此外，据金十数据12月15日讯，Nornickel周一表示已将今年银供应该测预测上调一倍至24万吨，并将26年预测从13万吨上调 至27.5万吨。 基本面情况 基本面来看，供应端，国内电镜 11月产量环比大减约28%至2.68万吨。 出现较为阴显边际收窄， 但尚不足以有效改善基本面过剩，同时印尼11月MHP、冰银和银钱产量均维持同比增长、整 体银供给端压力仍存。需求端进入传统消费淡季，现货市场在前期完成阶段性补货后成交有所走弱，不锈钢排产环比逐步走弱，电银和合金端也预计将有所下滑，同时中国实施不锈钢出口许可 证管理、考虑到政策实际执行时间为2026年1月1日，距离当下仍存半个月的时间窗口，短期或存在一定*抢出口'现 ...

打节 | 【公司 库存高位压制 镍价破位下行 中信期货研究所 有色与新材料团队 研究员: 郑非凡 从业资格号:F03088415 投资咨询号:Z0016667 杨 飞 从业资格号:F03108013 投资咨询号:Z0021455 投资咨询号:Z0022534 王美丹 从业资格号:F03141853 最新动态及原因 2025年12月16日，沪银大幅下跌超2.4%。盘中一度跌破1.21万/吨的低位。辖破位下跌主要受到库存高位压制，LME库存已于25万吨以上维持约2个月。且昨日LME库存和沪接食单均再 度出现一定程度的累积。基本面过剩下库存仍有进一步增长趋势。此外，据金十数据12月15日讯，Nornickel周一表示已将今年银供应该测预测上调一倍至24万吨，并将26年预测从13万吨上调 至27.5万吨。 基本面情况 基本面来看，供应端，国内电镜 11月产量环比大减约28%至2.68万吨。 出现较为阴显边际收窄， 但尚不足以有效改善基本面过剩，同时印尼11月MHP、冰银和银钱产量均维持同比增长、整 体银供给端压力仍存。需求端进入传统消费淡季，现货市场在前期完成阶段性补货后成交有所走弱，不锈钢排产环比逐步走弱，电银和合 ...

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Report Overview - Report Date: December 5, 2025 - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy - Covered Commodities: Nickel, Stainless Steel, Lithium Carbonate, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - **Nickel**: Fundamental factors limit the upside potential, and it is expected to trade in a low - level range [2][4]. - **Stainless Steel**: High inventory, weak supply and demand, while cost limits the downside risk [2][4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The pace of inventory reduction is slowing, and the price may face upward pressure [2][9]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Expected to perform weakly [2][13]. - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to the situation of warehouse receipt registration [2][14]. 3. Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 117,760 yuan, down 110 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of stainless steel's main contract was 12,425 yuan, down 40 yuan. The trading volume of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 103,322 lots, a decrease of 9,126 lots, and that of stainless steel's main contract was 143,077 lots, an increase of 17,837 lots [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Multiple events occurred, including the Indonesian forestry working group taking over part of the nickel - mining area, China suspending non - official subsidies for imported copper and nickel from Russia, and Indonesia implementing sanctions on mining companies [4][5]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both nickel and stainless steel have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [8]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2601 contract was 92,260 yuan, up 200 yuan; the trading volume was 101,978 lots, a decrease of 11,379 lots. The closing price of the 2605 contract was 93,700 yuan, up 40 yuan; the trading volume was 663,458 lots, an increase of 20,135 lots [9]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price dropped by 534 yuan/ton. Weekly production increased by 74 tons, and inventory decreased by 2366 tons. Vulcan Energy obtained nearly $2.5 billion in financing for a lithium project [10][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Si2601 contract was 8,910 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the trading volume was 152,172 lots, an increase of 6,173 lots. The closing price of the PS2601 contract was 56,915 yuan/ton, down 515 yuan; the trading volume was 175,576 lots, a decrease of 6,849 lots [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Beijing Economic - Technological Development Area issued measures to promote green - low - carbon development [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both industrial silicon and polysilicon have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [16].

Report Overview - Report Date: December 3, 2025 - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy - Covered Commodities: Nickel, Stainless Steel, Lithium Carbonate, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report Core Views - Nickel: Fundamental factors limit its upward potential, and it will trade in a low - level range [2][4] - Stainless Steel: High inventory and weak supply - demand, while cost limits the downside [2][4] - Lithium Carbonate: Weak spot trading, and the high - level oscillation will continue [2][9] - Industrial Silicon: Mainly in a weak operation [2] - Polysilicon: In an oscillating market, and attention should be paid to subsequent warrant registration [2][12] 3. Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 118,050 yuan, with a change of 200 yuan compared to T - 1. The trading volume of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 88,522 lots, a decrease of 57,307 lots from T - 1. For stainless steel, the closing price of the main contract was 12,465 yuan, up 20 yuan from T - 1, and the trading volume was 144,713 lots, down 98,850 lots from T - 1 [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesia's forestry working group took over more than 148 hectares of PT Weda Bay Nickel's mining area due to violations. China suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia. Indonesia imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies. The Indonesian government suspended the issuance of new smelting licenses. Some nickel wet - process projects in Indonesia may reduce production in December, affecting about 6,000 nickel metal tons [4][5][7] - **Trend Intensity**: Both nickel and stainless steel have a trend intensity of 0 [8] Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2601 contract was 94,860 yuan, down 260 yuan from T - 1. The trading volume was 73,196 lots, a decrease of 50,687 lots from T - 1. The spot - 2601 basis was - 460 yuan [9] - **Macro and Industry News**: SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 94,864 yuan/ton, down 114 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. BYD's November car sales were 480,186 units, and the cumulative sales from January to November were 4.18 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11.3% [9][10] - **Trend Intensity**: Lithium carbonate has a trend intensity of 0 [11] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Si2601 contract for industrial silicon was 9,145 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan from T - 1. The closing price of the PS2601 contract for polysilicon was 57,705 yuan/ton, up 1,280 yuan from T - 1. Industrial silicon's social inventory was 550,000 tons, and polysilicon's manufacturer inventory was 281,000 tons [12] - **Macro and Industry News**: Jiangsu Rundaxin Energy's new metallized TOPCon high - efficiency battery was launched, with a core conversion efficiency exceeding 26.5% [12][14] - **Trend Intensity**: Industrial silicon has a trend intensity of - 1, and polysilicon has a trend intensity of 0 [14]

Core Insights - The lithium industry has experienced significant oversupply since 2023, with supply growth outpacing demand growth, leading to a decline in lithium prices from a peak of 590,000 to 60,000, resulting in some high-cost projects in Australia being shut down and major companies incurring losses [4] - Starting in 2025, energy storage demand is expected to exceed expectations, becoming the second growth curve for lithium demand, with projected demand for lithium carbonate reaching 345,000 tons in 2025 and potentially exceeding 500,000 tons next year, a tenfold increase compared to 50,000 tons in 2021 [4] - The year 2026 is anticipated to be a watershed year for supply-demand reversal in the industry, with new applications in electric heavy trucks and ships, as well as technological advancements, likely to drive growth in power battery shipments [4] - The nickel industry has seen a continuous increase in supply due to investments by several Chinese companies in Indonesia, with supply expected to reach 2.2 million tons in 2024, accounting for 59% of global supply, while demand remains primarily driven by stainless steel [4] - The cobalt industry is experiencing a tightening supply due to the Democratic Republic of Congo's quota system, which has effectively raised cobalt prices [4] Lithium Industry - The lithium industry is currently in a state of supply-demand balance, with inventory levels decreasing [12] - The production of lithium iron phosphate batteries has seen significant growth, with a year-on-year increase of 65% in output [21] - The demand for lithium is projected to reach 195,000 tons in 2026, with supply at approximately 197,700 tons, indicating a narrowing surplus [37] - Major companies to watch include Ganfeng Lithium, Tianqi Lithium, and Yahua Group, which are expected to see rapid growth in their own mining operations [47] Nickel Industry - Nickel prices have been fluctuating since 2025, with LME and domestic inventories at high levels, indicating a supply surplus [50][56] - The overall supply of refined nickel in China is expected to be in surplus in 2025, with a projected supply of 379,000 tons against a demand of 361,000 tons [59] - Companies with a competitive edge in Indonesia, such as Huayou Cobalt and Liqin Resources, are recommended for investment [67] Cobalt Industry - Cobalt prices have been gradually increasing since the Democratic Republic of Congo's ban on mining exports, with the price of electrolytic cobalt reaching 405,000 yuan per ton [75] - Domestic cobalt salt production has increased, while imports of cobalt intermediate products have declined [78] - Investment opportunities in the cobalt sector include companies like Huayou Cobalt and Luoyang Molybdenum [72]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, nickel prices rebounded, with manufacturers being somewhat reluctant to sell and traders remaining cautious in purchasing. Recently, some production capacities have been cut, leading to a shortage of certain supplies. In the industrial chain, nickel ore prices are firm, and shipping fees remain flat. The RKAB quota in Indonesia for 2026 is expected to be 3.19 billion tons, indicating a loose supply outlook. Nickel iron prices show signs of stabilizing, with most remaining steady and a small portion still falling, and the cost - line center remains stable. Stainless steel inventories are rising, and demand remains weak. Refined nickel inventories are continuously at a high level, and the oversupply pattern remains unchanged. Although the production and sales data of new energy vehicles are good, the overall boost to nickel demand is limited [8]. - The main contract of Shanghai nickel will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, and in the medium - to - long - term, it is advisable to short on rebounds. The main contract of stainless steel will be under downward pressure from the 20 - day moving average and operate weakly [9][10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Viewpoint and Strategy - **Shanghai Nickel Viewpoint**: Nickel prices rebounded this week, manufacturers were reluctant to sell, and traders were cautious. Some production capacity cuts led to supply shortages. The industrial chain shows firm nickel ore prices, stable shipping fees, expected loose supply in Indonesia, stabilizing nickel iron prices, rising stainless steel inventories, high refined nickel inventories, and limited demand boost from new energy vehicles [8]. - **Operation Strategy**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average and short on rebounds in the medium - to - long - term. The main contract of stainless steel will be under downward pressure from the 20 - day moving average and operate weakly [9][10] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Industrial Chain Weekly Price Changes - Nickel ore prices remained stable, with no change in the prices of red clay nickel ore (CIF) NI1.5%, Fe30 - 35% and NI1.4%, Fe30 - 35% compared to last week. The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate decreased by 3.43%, while the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate remained unchanged. The prices of low - nickel iron and high - nickel iron in Shandong remained the same as last week. The prices of Shanghai electrolytic nickel, Shanghai Russian nickel, and Jinchuan's ex - factory price increased, while the price of 304 stainless steel decreased slightly [13][14] 3.2.2 Nickel Ore Market Conditions - Nickel ore prices were stable, and shipping fees were flat. As of November 28, 2025, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 14.8733 million wet tons, a decrease of 0.83% from the previous period. In October 2025, nickel ore imports decreased by 23.41% month - on - month and increased by 10.97% year - on - year. The Philippines' ore output was smooth this week, downstream nickel enterprises had the expectation of production cuts, and the price of Indonesian ore decreased slightly [17] 3.2.3 Electrolytic Nickel Market Conditions - Nickel prices rebounded, and manufacturers were reluctant to sell. In the long - term, the supply and demand of electrolytic nickel will continue to increase, but the oversupply pattern will not change. The substitution of ternary batteries in the new energy industry chain is becoming more obvious, and the growth of nickel demand is slowing down. In October 2025, China's refined nickel production decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year. The import and export volumes of refined nickel also changed. The LME and Shanghai nickel inventories increased [22][26][30] 3.2.4 Nickel Iron Market Conditions - Nickel iron prices stopped falling and remained flat. In October 2025, China's nickel pig iron production increased month - on - month and decreased year - on - year. The import volume of nickel iron decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year. The inventory of nickel iron in October was 209,100 physical tons, equivalent to 19,800 nickel tons [42][47] 3.2.5 Stainless Steel Market Conditions - The price of 304 stainless steel decreased slightly this week. In October, stainless steel crude steel production was 3.4267 million tons, and the inventory increased. The import volume of stainless steel was 124,100 tons, and the export volume was 358,100 tons [59][63] 3.2.6 New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales - In October, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.772 million and 1.715 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 21.1% and 20% respectively. From January to October, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 13.015 million and 12.943 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 33.1% and 32.7% respectively. In October, the production and sales of power and other batteries increased, and the cumulative installed capacity of domestic power batteries from January to October also increased [74] 3.3 Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line, the price rebounded and returned to the vicinity of the 20 - day moving average, being suppressed by the moving average. The positions decreased significantly, and short - selling funds took profits. The MACD indicator showed a golden cross, with a certain upward possibility but limited upside space [80]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Report Core Views Aluminum - The alumina market is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend, with the main contract operating in the range of 2700 - 2850 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum market will likely maintain high - level oscillations, with the SHFE main contract in the range of 21,100 - 21,700 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum Alloy - The ADC12 price is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term, with the main contract operating in the range of 20300 - 20900 yuan/ton [2]. Tin - In the short term, although macro fluctuations are large, considering the limited supply recovery this year and the strong fundamentals, a bullish stance on tin price corrections is maintained. The focus is on macro changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar [4]. Zinc - The zinc market is likely to oscillate. The price has limited downward space in the short term, but the fundamentals also provide limited impetus for continuous upward movement. The main contract reference range is 22200 - 22800 [6]. Copper - In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the gradual upward shift of the copper price bottom. The main contract reference range is 85000 - 87800, with attention on overseas interest - rate cut expectations and other macro drivers [8]. Nickel - The nickel market is expected to operate weakly in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 113000 - 118000. Attention should be paid to macro expectations and Indonesian industrial policy news [11]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is expected to operate weakly in the short term, with the main contract operating in the range of 12200 - 12600. The focus is on steel - mill production cuts and ferronickel prices [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - carbonate market may first decline and then oscillate in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 83,000 - 88,000 yuan/ton [15]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial - silicon market is expected to have low - level oscillations, with the main price fluctuation range likely between 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton [17]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon market is expected to oscillate in a high - level range. For trading strategies, try to go long around 50,000 on the futures side; hold/sell put options on the options side, and consider buying straddles if volatility decreases [18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price dropped to 21380 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.88%. The import loss was 1798 yuan/ton, and the SHFE - LME ratio was 7.63 [1]. Fundamental Data - In October, alumina production was 778.53 million tons, a 2.39% increase; electrolytic aluminum production was 374.21 million tons, a 3.52% increase [1]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price dropped to 21350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.47%. The refined - scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum decreased by 4.48% [2]. Fundamental Data - In October, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 64.50 million tons, a 2.42% decrease; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 28.60 million tons, a 1.06% increase [2]. Tin Price and Spread - SMM 1 tin price dropped to 291300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.07%. The import loss was 16328.60 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - In September, tin ore imports were 8714 tons, a 15.13% decrease. In October, SMM refined tin production was 16090 tons, a 53.09% increase [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose to 22440 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.04%. The import loss was 4165 yuan/ton [6]. Fundamental Data - In October, refined zinc production was 61.72 million tons, a 2.85% increase; imports were 1.88 million tons, a 16.94% decrease [6]. Copper Price and Spread - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price dropped to 82872 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.72%. The refined - scrap price difference was 2675 yuan/ton, a 12.75% decrease [8]. Fundamental Data - In October, electrolytic copper production was 109.16 million tons, a 2.62% decrease; imports were 28.21 million tons, a 15.61% decrease [8]. Nickel Price and Spread - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price dropped to 116700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.27%. The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron price dropped to 891 yuan/nickel point, a 0.39% decrease [11]. Fundamental Data - China's refined nickel production was 35900 tons, a 0.84% increase; imports were 38164 tons, a 124.36% increase [11]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) rose to 12700 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.40%. The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron ex - factory average price dropped to 891 yuan/nickel point, a 0.39% decrease [13]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (43 companies) was 182.17 million tons, a 0.38% increase; exports were 35.81 million tons, a 14.43% decrease [13]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price rose to 92300 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.10%. The lithium spodumene concentrate CIF average price dropped to 6807 dollars/ton, a 2.51% decrease [15]. Fundamental Data - In October, lithium carbonate production was 92260 tons, a 5.73% increase; demand was 126961 tons, an 8.70% increase [15]. Industrial Silicon Price and Spread - The price of East China oxygen - containing SI5530 industrial silicon remained at 9550 yuan/ton. The 2512 - 2601 monthly spread increased by 200% [17]. Fundamental Data - National industrial silicon production was 45.22 million tons, a 7.46% increase; exports were 4.51 million tons, a 35.82% decrease [17]. Polysilicon Price and Spread - The N - type re - feedstock average price remained at 52300 yuan/ton. The main contract price rose to 53360 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.73% [18]. Fundamental Data - Weekly polysilicon production was 2.71 million tons, a 1.12% increase; monthly production was 13.40 million tons, a 3.08% increase [18].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, nickel prices dropped significantly, breaking through the low point of the year. The downstream procurement enthusiasm was acceptable, and some production capacities were reduced recently. The supply of sources such as GEM was tight. In the industrial chain, nickel ore prices remained firm, and shipping costs increased slightly. The RKAB quota in Indonesia in 2026 is expected to be 3.19 billion tons, with an expected loose supply. Nickel iron prices continued to decline, breaking through the support of the 900 mark, and the cost - line center of gravity decreased again. Stainless steel inventories increased slightly, with a slight decline in the 300 - series, and the demand performance was still poor. Refined nickel inventories remained at a high level, and the surplus pattern remained unchanged. Although the production and sales data of new energy vehicles were good, the overall boost to nickel demand was limited [8]. - The main contract of Shanghai nickel will fluctuate in a range of 2,000 points above and below 115,000, and short on rebounds in the medium - to - long term. The main contract of stainless steel is under downward pressure and will operate weakly [9][10]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Viewpoints and Strategies - **Nickel Viewpoint**: Nickel prices fell sharply this week, breaking through the annual low. Downstream procurement was acceptable, with some production cuts and tight supply from some sources. The nickel ore price was firm, shipping costs rose slightly, and the Indonesian supply was expected to be loose. Nickel iron prices continued to decline, stainless steel demand was weak, refined nickel was in surplus, and new energy vehicles had limited impact on nickel demand [8]. - **Operation Strategy**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel will fluctuate around 115,000 with a range of 2,000 points, and short on rebounds in the medium - to - long term. The main contract of stainless steel will operate weakly [9][10]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Industry Chain Weekly Price Changes**: Red soil nickel ore prices remained stable, while the prices of battery - grade and electroplating - grade nickel sulfate, electrolytic nickel, nickel iron, and 304 stainless steel all decreased [13][14]. - **Nickel Ore Market**: Nickel ore prices were stable, shipping costs increased by $1 per wet ton. As of November 21, 2025, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China decreased by 0.65%. In October 2025, nickel ore imports decreased by 23.41% month - on - month and increased by 10.97% year - on - year. Downstream nickel - iron enterprises had low procurement enthusiasm, and the benchmark price of Indonesian nickel ore decreased slightly [17]. - **Electrolytic Nickel Market**: Nickel prices weakened, and downstream procurement was acceptable. Some production was reduced, and there was a willingness to support prices. In the long - term, the supply and demand would both increase, but the surplus pattern would remain. The substitution of ternary batteries was more obvious, and nickel demand growth slowed down. In October 2025, China's refined nickel production decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year. Imports decreased significantly month - on - month, and exports decreased slightly. The price of nickel sulfate decreased [22][25][26]. - **Nickel Iron Market**: Nickel iron prices continued to decline. In October 2025, China's nickel - pig iron production increased month - on - month and decreased year - on - year. Imports decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year. The inventory in October was 209,100 physical tons, equivalent to 19,800 nickel tons [41][44][47]. - **Stainless Steel Market**: The price of 304 stainless steel decreased. In October, stainless steel production was 3.4267 million tons, with a 1.43% increase in the 300 - series. Imports were 124,100 tons, and exports were 358,100 tons. As of November 21, the national inventory increased slightly, and the 300 - series inventory decreased slightly [55][61][67]. - **New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales**: In October, new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.772 million and 1.715 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 21.1% and 20%. From January to October, production and sales were 13.015 million and 12.943 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 33.1% and 32.7%. In October, power and other battery production and sales increased significantly, and the cumulative installed capacity from January to October increased by 42.4% year - on - year [72][75]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line, the price continued to be under pressure, breaking through the previous low, opening up downward space, and moving away from the 20 - day moving average. The high - level position did not reduce, indicating strong short - selling sentiment from the main force. The green column of the MACD indicator began to shrink, and indicators such as KDJ entered the oversold area, with a certain rebound demand [78]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Summary - **Nickel Ore**: Neutral. The quotation was stable, shipping costs increased, the rainy season was approaching, supply slowed down, and Indonesian supply was loose [81]. - **Nickel Iron**: Slightly bearish. Nickel iron prices continued to decline, breaking through the 900 mark, and the cost line continued to fall [81]. - **Refined Nickel**: Slightly bearish. The long - term surplus pattern remained unchanged, and high inventories were difficult to change [81]. - **Stainless Steel**: Slightly bearish. Inventories increased slightly, and there was an oversupply [81]. - **New Energy**: Slightly bearish. Production data was good, but the substitution of ternary batteries continued [81].

1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For Shanghai Nickel 2601, it is expected to oscillate in a low - level range, and investors are advised to sell on rebounds in the medium to long term [2]. - For Stainless Steel 2601, it is under downward pressure and will operate weakly [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - **Futures Prices**: On November 21, the Shanghai Nickel main contract was at 114,050 yuan, down 1,330 yuan from the previous day; the LME Nickel was at 14,620, up 165; the Stainless Steel main contract was at 12,290 yuan, up 5 yuan. The Nickel Index on the Wuxi Trading Center was 114,650 yuan, down 650 yuan, and the Cold - Rolled Index was 12,100 yuan, down 30 yuan [11]. - **Spot Prices**: On November 21, SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 116,700 yuan, down 1,500 yuan; 1 Jinchuan nickel was 118,700 yuan, down 1,500 yuan; 1 imported nickel was 115,000 yuan, down 1,600 yuan; nickel beans were 116,950 yuan, down 1,600 yuan. Cold - rolled 304*2B stainless steel in Wuxi was 13,300 yuan (unchanged), in Foshan was 13,400 yuan (unchanged), in Hangzhou was 13,250 yuan (up 50 yuan), and in Shanghai was 13,250 yuan (unchanged) [11]. 3.2 Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of November 21, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 39,795 tons, with futures inventory at 33,785 tons, a decrease of 778 tons and 1,242 tons respectively. LME nickel inventory was 253,950 tons, down 222 tons; Shanghai Nickel (warehouse receipts) was 33,785 tons, down 294 tons; the total inventory was 287,735 tons, down 516 tons [13][14]. 3.3 Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - On November 21, the inventory in Wuxi was 574,000 tons, in Foshan was 353,400 tons, and the national inventory was 1,071,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 120 tons. The inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 658,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 120 tons. The stainless steel warehouse receipts were 64,924 tons, down 416 tons [18][19]. 3.4 Nickel Ore and Ferronickel Prices - **Nickel Ore**: On November 21, the CIF price of laterite nickel ore with Ni1.5% was 57 dollars/wet ton (unchanged), and with Ni0.9% was 29 dollars/wet ton (unchanged). The sea freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang was 11 dollars/ton (unchanged), and to Tianjin Port was 12 dollars/ton (unchanged). - **Ferronickel**: The price of high - nickel ferronickel was 891 yuan/nickel point, down 3.5 yuan; the price of low - nickel ferronickel was 3,200 yuan/ton (unchanged) [21]. 3.5 Stainless Steel Production Cost - The traditional production cost was 12,449 yuan, the scrap steel production cost was 12,755 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure nickel production cost was 16,046 yuan [23]. 3.6 Nickel Import Cost Calculation The converted import price was 117,295 yuan/ton [26]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - **Nickel**: Last week, nickel prices dropped significantly below the annual low. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm was okay, and some production capacities were cut recently, leading to tight supply of sources such as GEM. The nickel ore price was firm, and the sea freight increased slightly. The 2026 RKAB quota in Indonesia was expected to be 3.19 billion tons, with expected ample supply. The ferronickel price continued to decline, breaking below 900. The stainless steel inventory increased slightly, and the demand was still weak. The refined nickel inventory remained at a high level, and the oversupply situation remained unchanged. Although the production and sales data of new energy vehicles were good, the overall boost to nickel demand was limited [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The spot stainless steel price rose slightly. In the short term, the nickel ore price was firm, the sea freight increased slightly, the ferronickel price declined, and the cost line continued to move down. The stainless steel inventory increased slightly [4]. 3.8 Basis Analysis - **Nickel**: The spot price was 116,700 yuan, and the basis was 2,650 yuan, which was bullish [2][8]. - **Stainless Steel**: The average stainless steel price was 13,300 yuan, and the basis was 1,010 yuan, which was bullish [4]. 3.9 Influence Factors Summary - **Bullish Factors**: The ore price was firm; there was new production capacity coming on - stream, and some production was cut, so short - term output might decline [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: The domestic output continued to increase significantly year - on - year, there was no new growth point in demand, and the long - term oversupply situation remained unchanged; the inventory remained at a high level; the ferronickel price continued to decline, breaking below 900 [6].