证券研究报告 +(86) 10 6321 1166 张皓怡* 研究员 SAC No. S0570522020001 zhanghaoyi@htsc.com 寒武纪 (688256 CH) 新品进展顺利，上调 27 年预测 目标价(人民币): 1,679.40 郭龙飞* 研究员 SAC No. S0570525080001 guolongfei@htsc.com 林文富* 研究员 SAC No. S0570525100003 linwenfu@htsc.com 王心怡 研究员 SAC No. S0570523110001 SFC No. BTB527 xinyi.wang@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 基本数据 | 收盘价 (人民币 截至 2 月 6 日) | 1,037 | | --- | --- | | 市值 (人民币百万) | 437,283 | | 6 个月平均日成交额 (人民币百万) | 12,998 | | 52 周价格范围 (人民币) | 523.50-1,587.91 | 股价走势图 (13) 32 77 121 166 Feb-25 Jun-25 Oct-25 Feb ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Cambricon has been under pressure due to unverified rumors, despite a recent positive earnings forecast for 2025, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics with increasing competition from new entrants in the AI chip sector [3][5][6]. Stock Performance - On February 3, Cambricon's stock price fell by over 13% during trading, closing down 9.18% at 1128 CNY per share, with a market capitalization of 475.7 billion CNY [5]. - The following day, the stock continued to decline by 5.32%, closing at 1068 CNY per share, resulting in a total market value drop exceeding 70 billion CNY over two days [5]. - Year-to-date, as of February 4, Cambricon's stock has experienced a cumulative decline of 21.21% [6]. Earnings Forecast - Cambricon recently announced an optimistic earnings forecast for 2025, projecting revenue between 6 billion to 7 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 410.87% to 496.02% [6]. - The company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.85 billion to 2.15 billion CNY, marking a turnaround from losses [6]. Market Competition - The entry of new competitors in the AI chip market, such as Moore Threads and MuXi, has diminished Cambricon's previous market scarcity, leading to increased competition and potential pressure on its valuation [8][9]. - The competitive landscape is shifting from a scarcity-driven market to one characterized by increased competition, which may impact Cambricon's growth rates moving forward [8][9]. Industry Dynamics - The AI chip market is experiencing rapid growth, but the sustainability of Cambricon's high growth rates is questioned due to the intensifying competition and the potential for market share dilution [7][8]. - Cambricon's market share in the AI accelerator market is relatively small, with estimates indicating it holds about 1.4% compared to Nvidia's 70% [8][9]. Competitor Performance - Other emerging players in the AI chip sector have shown significant revenue growth, with projections for 2025 indicating substantial increases for companies like Moore Threads and MuXi, which may further challenge Cambricon's market position [9][10].

相比较去年8月1595.88元的高点，寒武纪股价已经下跌了超30%。 | 今开 | 1255.00 | | 最高 | 1257.78 | | 成交量 | 11.92万手 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨收 | 1242.00 | | 最低 | 1070.00 | | 成交额 | 137.81亿 | | 换手率 | 2.85% | | 市盈(TTM) | 241.69 | | 总市值 | 4536亿 | | / / 0 -- | TO | 口口 | EE I/ | 三 | 天/ | EI/ | 古々 .. | 此前，1月31日晚间，寒武纪发布业绩预告，预计2025年度实现营收60亿元到70亿元，同比增长410.87%到496.02%；实现净利18.5亿元到21.5亿元，扭亏 为盈；扣除非经常性损益后实现净利16亿元到19亿元。 寒武纪亦在业绩预告中提示，本次业绩预告是公司财务部门的初步核算，尚未经注册会计师审计，具体准确的财务数据以公司正式披露的经审计后的 《2025 年年度报告》为准。 值得注意的是，近日，福布斯更新了截至2026年 ...

今日寒武纪调整点评20260203 ＃关于寒武纪公司的2026年盈利预测，国海计算机是少有的一直坚持相对清晰且冷静判断的卖方。 我们认为：2026年对于国产AI芯片行业整体来说，＃市场规模翻倍已经是比较中性偏乐观的判断了，且具体还要 看后续大厂的Capex指引，但我们对此是乐观的。 ＃关于寒武纪公司的2026年盈利预测，国海计算机是少有的一直坚持相对清晰且冷静判断的卖方。 我们认为：2026年对于国产AI芯片行业整体来说，＃市场规模翻倍已经是比较中性偏乐观的判断了，且具体还要 看后续大厂的Capex指引，但我们对此是乐观的。 ＃我们看2028年国内三大CSP需求乐观可支撑3-4万亿市值的AI芯片市场，这其中包括互联网自研，先看ASIC与 GPU比例55开。 我们看建议理性看待每一家AI芯片公司的市占率，理论上其中不会有一家超过30%，且具体要依靠对产品、生 态、供应链及产业趋势的比较分析。 ＃我们看2028年国内三大CSP需求乐观可支撑3-4万亿市值的AI芯片市场， 今日寒武纪调整点评20260203 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent volatility in the stock price of Chinese AI chip company Cambricon, highlighting the impact of market rumors regarding its revenue guidance for 2026, which significantly deviated from market expectations [6][9][10]. Group 1: Market Reaction - On February 3, Cambricon's stock price dropped by 12.88%, resulting in a market capitalization decline from approximately 530 billion to 456.3 billion yuan, evaporating over 70 billion yuan in value [6][13]. - The market was unsettled by rumors suggesting that Cambricon's 2026 revenue guidance was only 20 billion yuan, far below the anticipated range of 30 billion to 50 billion yuan [9][15]. - Following the rumors, Cambricon issued a statement denying any such revenue guidance and emphasized that it had not organized any small-scale communications regarding financial forecasts [10][16]. Group 2: Industry Context - The AI chip industry is at a critical juncture, characterized by both significant growth potential and increasing competition among over ten companies, including Cambricon, Moore Threads, and others [16][22]. - Major players like Alibaba's Tianshu and Kunlun chips are entering the market, intensifying competition and potentially altering market dynamics [16][17]. - The scarcity of related concept stocks in the market is expected to diminish as more companies, including Kunlun and Tianshu, go public [17]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Cambricon recently announced a strong performance forecast for 2025, projecting revenues between 6 billion to 7 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 410.87% to 496.02% [18][19]. - The company also expects to achieve a net profit of 1.85 billion to 2.15 billion yuan, a significant turnaround from a loss of 450 million yuan in the previous year [19]. - However, there are concerns regarding the fourth-quarter performance, with expected revenues of only 1.393 billion to 2.393 billion yuan, indicating a potential slowdown in growth [21]. Group 4: Investor Sentiment - Market sentiment is shifting as investors reassess the valuation logic of AI chip companies, particularly in light of the increasing number of firms entering the market [22]. - The financing balance as a percentage of market capitalization for Cambricon, Moore Threads, and Nuxi is 2.89%, 8.26%, and 9.55% respectively, suggesting that market fluctuations could exacerbate stock price declines [22]. - Investors are questioning the sustainability of the current market landscape, speculating on the potential for a significant number of companies to fail or experience drastic declines in market value [22].

2026.02.03 本文字数：1273，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 |第一财经 郑栩彤 寒武纪预计，2025年应该是该公司首个实现盈利的年度。寒武纪自2024年第四季度以来实现多个季度盈 利。2025年，寒武纪预计营收在60亿元~70亿元之间，同比增长410.87%~496.02%，预计净利润18.5亿元 ~21.5亿元，同比扭亏为盈。 2025年第三季度，寒武纪营收17.27亿元，同比增长1332.52%，净利润5.67亿元，同比转正。不过，环 比看，第三季度寒武纪营收环比下降了2.4%，净利润环比下降了17%。 按照业绩预告计算，寒武纪去年第四季度营收13.93亿元~23.93亿元，净利润2.45亿元~5.45亿元。按照 营收预测区间上限计算，寒武纪第四季度营收环比增长38%，但按照区间下限计算，寒武纪第四季度营 收环比下降约19%。净利润方面，第四季度寒武纪则预计环比下降3.9%~56.8%。 这或许意味着，在经历了快速的业绩增长后，寒武纪经营状况开始经历波动调整。 今日早盘，除了寒武纪股价大跌，A股多只国产AI芯片股股价也经历下跌，盘中摩尔线程 （688795.SH）跌超4%，海光信息（688041. ...

2026年1月29日，新浪财经、第一财经与古井贡酒·年份原浆古20共同携手举办的"为中国经济点赞——企业家之夜"在北京正大中心举行。 这不仅仅是一场年度荣誉盛宴，更是一扇观察中国经济韧性、多元动力与未来方向的窗口。透过企业家们的感言、洞察与愿景，我们得以窥见中国经济在承 压前行中，那些坚实而蓬勃的驱动力。 基石的力量，传统产业的升级与自信 当紫金矿业创始人陈景河在回顾企业成长视频时悄然落泪，全场为之动容。这泪水，不仅是个体创业艰辛与荣耀的抒发，更是中国基础产业在全球竞争中逆 势崛起的缩影。 陈景河直言，西方公司曾控制最优质的矿业资源，但紫金凭借完整的技术能力、强大的探矿能力和每一位艰苦卓绝、富有奉献精神的紫金人，实现了"所向 披靡"。他从一个县级小企业起步，到将海外黄金板块成功分拆上市，市值瞩目，其自信宣言——"现在想不发财都很难"，背后是中国矿业企业在技术、管 理、国际化运营上累积的深厚内功。 智谱董事长刘德兵谈及其AGI（通用人工智能）愿景："让机器像人一样思考"，代表了在人工智能基础层追求终极境界的雄心。小马智行彭军则通过实时连 线无人驾驶车，展现了十年专注Robotaxi，让未来出行更安全高效的务实路 ...

2月3日，A股市场早盘冲高回落后，又再度震荡拉升。三大指数盘中翻绿，创业板指此前一度涨超2%，截至午间收盘，三大指数集体翻红。沪深两市半 日成交额1.6万亿，较上个交易日缩量400亿，全市场超4400只个股上涨。 此次股价异动，或源于公司此前披露的2025年业绩预告中透露出的单季业绩不及预期信号。 1月30日晚间，寒武纪正式发布2025年年度业绩预告，全年经营数据整体呈现大幅增长态势。但结合公司已披露的2025年三季报数据测算，单季度业绩表 现却显露出增长动能放缓的迹象。寒武纪2025年前三季度归母净利润为16.05亿元，以此计算，公司2025年第四季度归母净利润预计在2.45亿元至5.45亿元 区间，环比上一季度的5.67亿元下滑3%至56%，单季盈利规模出现明显收缩。而市场层面，分析师对寒武纪2025年第四季度归母净利润的一致预测值为 6.13亿元，公司四季度业绩预测区间整体低于市场预期。 港股方面，恒生科技指数盘中跌超3%，截至发稿，热门成分股百度集团跌超4%，腾讯控股跌近4%，阿里巴巴跌超2%，美团跌近2%，京东集团跌近1%。 具体板块来看，商业航天概念走势强劲，海兰信（300065）、航天发展（00 ...

Group 1 - The stock price of domestic AI chip company Cambricon fell over 13%, with its market value dropping below 460 billion yuan [3] - Other AI chip companies also experienced declines, with Moer Technology down over 5%, Haiguang Information down over 3%, and Muxi Co. down 6% [3] Group 2 - Cambricon's trading volume was reported at 160,200 shares, with a 5-day moving average (5PMA) of 1,602.44 [1] - Moer Technology had a trading volume of 27,050 shares, with a 5PMA of 985.31 [1] - Haiguang Information's trading volume was 67,160 shares, with a 5PMA of 320.74 [1]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong capital market has started 2026 with a vibrant listing wave, continuing the momentum from Q4 2025, with 17 companies submitting applications on January 30 alone [1] - A total of 139 companies submitted listing applications in January 2026, with 2 companies passing the listing hearing and 13 companies successfully listing on the exchange [1][2] Group 1: Market Trends - The listing activities reflect a strategic choice by companies towards the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, indicating global capital's confidence in China's new economic sectors [2] - The sectors represented in the applications include renewable energy, semiconductors, AI, robotics, consumer goods, and biomedicine, showcasing a diverse range of industries [4] Group 2: Notable Companies - XINWANGDA, a leading global consumer lithium battery manufacturer, submitted its application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to raise funds for its overseas production capacity expansion [4][5] - EVE Energy also submitted its application, with plans to use the raised funds for the construction of its production base in Hungary [5] - ATOOM, known as the "king of parallel robots" in China, has also applied for listing, demonstrating significant revenue growth and market leadership in various sectors [5][6] Group 3: Financial Performance - XINWANGDA reported a revenue of 13.89 billion yuan for its consumer battery business in the first half of 2025, with a 5.2% year-on-year growth and a gross margin of 19.63% [4] - ATOOM's revenue grew from 93.5 million yuan in 2023 to 135 million yuan in 2024, with a further increase to 157 million yuan in the first nine months of 2025 [6] Group 4: Future Projections - Predictions indicate that around 160 new stocks will be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2026, with a total fundraising target of at least 300 billion HKD (approximately 38 billion USD) [9][10] - The recent regulatory reforms at the Hong Kong Stock Exchange have facilitated the listing of companies in emerging sectors, enhancing the attractiveness of the market for international investors [9][10]