周五（11月14日），算力继续大调整，创业板人工智能指数单日跌超3%，成份股大面积飘绿。其中， 协创数据领跌超7%，光库科技、奥飞数据、网宿科技、新易盛、天孚通信、长芯博创等十余股跌超 4%，其中光模块CPO龙头新易盛创本轮调整新低，较10月29日高点回撤超24%。 热门ETF方面，重仓光模块等算力方向的创业板人工智能ETF（159363）场内收跌3.42%失守60日线， 单日缩量成交4.3亿元，资金逢跌净申购4400万份。 短期来看，操作上存在AI算力板块因资金流出而出现震荡加剧甚至加速调整的可能性。对长线投资者 而言，关键在于以更长远的产业视角审视景气度变化，保持耐心，理性看待短期波动，避免主线行情中 途"卖飞"。 一看基本面，光模块等算力股业绩成色如何？ 以重仓光模块龙头的创业板人工智能为例，2025年三季报权重股业绩多数超预期。其中，受益于AI算 力需求驱动800G/1.6T光模块产品放量，中际旭创前三季度营收250.1亿元（同比+44.4%），净利润71.3 亿元（同比+90%）；新易盛营收165.1亿元（同比+221.7%），净利润63.3亿元（同比+284.4%）。 单周复盘看，科技情绪退潮明显 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company has shown impressive performance in its Q3 2025 report, with a revenue of 250.05 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 44.43%, and a net profit of 71.32 billion yuan, which is a significant increase of 90.05% year-on-year [5] - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing demand for high-end optical modules, particularly with the anticipated growth in GPU shipments from major players like NVIDIA [6] - The long-term growth logic of the company remains solid, with a sustainable upward trend in both revenue and profit [7] Summary by Sections Investment Summary - The company operates in the communication industry and has a current market capitalization of 527.34 billion yuan [2][4] - The stock price has fluctuated between 71.99 yuan and 520.72 yuan over the past 12 months [2] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 102.16 billion yuan, marking a 56.83% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 31.37 billion yuan, which is a 124.98% increase year-on-year [5] - The company’s net profit margin improved to 30.27% in the first three quarters of 2025, up from 22.51% at the end of 2024 [6] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 376.59 billion yuan, 761.81 billion yuan, and 912.76 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 89.87 billion yuan, 187.06 billion yuan, and 234.90 billion yuan [8] - The expected growth rates for revenue and net profit are 73.97%, 107.91%, and 25.58% respectively for the years 2025 to 2027 [8] Valuation Metrics - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 58.91, 28.33, and 22.56 respectively [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in performance for Q3 2025, with revenue reaching 25.005 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 44.43%, and a net profit of 7.132 billion yuan, up 90.05% year-on-year [1][6] - The growth is attributed to the ramp-up in the production of 800G and 1.6T optical modules, with sufficient material and capacity prepared to meet the increasing demand for AI computing power [1][6] - The company is expected to benefit from accelerated overseas shipments of optical modules in Q4 2025 and throughout 2026, with a strong potential for profit release due to increased silicon photonics penetration and the scaling effect of 1.6T optical modules [6] Financial Data and Valuation - Projected total revenue for 2025 is 37.11 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 56%, and net profit is expected to reach 10.81 billion yuan, corresponding to a PE ratio of 48.6 [2][6] - The company’s revenue is projected to grow to 93.03 billion yuan by 2027, with net profit reaching 26.62 billion yuan, resulting in a PE ratio of 19.7 [2][6] - The company has a total market capitalization of 52.56 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 52.29 billion yuan, with a current stock price of 473.01 yuan [3] Performance Metrics - The company achieved a gross margin of 42.8% in Q3 2025, an increase of 1.3 percentage points, and a net profit margin of 32.6%, up 1.1 percentage points [6] - The return on equity (ROE) for the trailing twelve months (TTM) stands at 32.4% [3] - The company’s asset-liability ratio is 29.5%, indicating a solid financial position [3]

Core Insights - The release of Sora2 by OpenAI has introduced new dynamics in the AI sector, but it does not significantly outperform existing domestic video models from ByteDance, Kuaishou, and Alibaba [2] - The competitive landscape is shifting, with Google launching Veo3.1 shortly after Sora2, indicating a potential for Google to surpass OpenAI due to its extensive infrastructure [2] - The AI hardware development path is uncertain, as companies like Alibaba and Google utilize their own AI chips, challenging the notion of a unified model dominated by OpenAI and Nvidia [3] Company Performance - New Yi Sheng reported a remarkable financial performance for the first half of 2025, with revenue reaching 10.437 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 282.64%, and net profit of 3.942 billion yuan, up 355.68% [5] - The company’s Q2 revenue was 6.385 billion yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of 57.5%, and net profit of 2.37 billion yuan, up 50.7% [7] - New Yi Sheng has transitioned from a traditional optical module supplier to a core supplier of AI computing infrastructure, capitalizing on the global AI computing investment boom [7][8] Market Trends - The demand for 800G optical modules is expected to reach 19.9 million units globally by 2025, with the market for 1.6T modules halved to 1 million units [8] - The company has successfully launched 800G/1.6T optical module products, establishing a competitive advantage in the AI computing infrastructure sector [8] - The revenue from high-speed optical modules (over 4.25G) constitutes 98.91% of total revenue, indicating a strong focus on advanced technology [9] Client Composition - The top five clients account for 72.74% of accounts receivable, primarily consisting of major cloud players like Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta [11] - ByteDance has emerged as the largest domestic client, with Alibaba expected to procure 5 million units of 800G optical modules by 2025, capturing a 25% market share [11][13] - The optimization of the client structure provides a more stable growth trajectory for the company, reducing reliance on a single market [13] Risks and Challenges - Inventory levels have increased by 43.86% to 5.944 billion yuan, with a significant rise in inventory impairment losses, indicating potential risks associated with rapid technological changes [14] - Accounts receivable have surged by 97.59% to 5.017 billion yuan, raising concerns about cash flow and potential bad debt risks [15] - The emergence of CPO technology poses a threat to traditional optical modules, with predictions suggesting it will dominate the market by 2027 [16][17]

Group 1 - The company is increasing its investment in high-speed optical modules, focusing on overseas markets and expanding production of 800G/1.6T optical modules, which is expected to drive strong growth in the future [1] - The technology developed by the company can extend battery life by 1-2 orders of magnitude and can be directly added to new batteries, indicating a significant innovation in lithium battery "revival" technology, which is already in small-scale production and continuous sampling [1]

Core Viewpoint - Cambridge Technology is facing scrutiny over its upcoming Hong Kong IPO due to concerns about the timing of its fundraising in relation to significant share reductions by major shareholders and inconsistencies in its financial data [1][11][12]. Financial Performance - Cambridge Technology reported fluctuating revenues and net profits from 2022 to 2024, with revenues of RMB 3.786 billion, RMB 3.087 billion, and RMB 3.652 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 29.66%, -18.46%, and 18.31% respectively [2][3]. - The net profits for the same period were RMB 171 million, RMB 95 million, and RMB 167 million, with year-on-year growth rates of 154.93%, -44.59%, and 75.42% respectively [2][3]. IPO Fundraising Purpose - The company plans to use the proceeds from the Hong Kong IPO to enhance production capacity for optical modules, broadband, and wireless solutions, as well as to improve R&D capabilities and supplement working capital [2][6]. - The specific amount to be raised has not yet been disclosed [2]. Previous Fundraising Issues - Cambridge Technology's previous fundraising projects have faced delays and changes, with the most significant project, the optical module project, experiencing multiple extensions and currently being integrated into a new project [3][4][5]. - The optical module project was initially set to be completed in one year but has now been extended to five years without generating expected benefits [4][5]. Supplier Data Discrepancies - There are notable discrepancies between the procurement data reported in the company's annual report and the Hong Kong IPO prospectus, raising questions about the reliability of the financial data [8][9]. - For instance, the procurement amounts for the top five suppliers differ significantly between the two documents, with the annual report showing lower totals compared to the IPO prospectus [8][9]. Shareholder Actions - The controlling shareholders plan to reduce their holdings by up to 3% through block trades and open market transactions, which has raised investor concerns about the timing of the IPO and the potential implications for company governance [11][12][13]. - The company has stated that the reduction in shareholding is based on the shareholders' business needs and is not directly related to the IPO [12][13].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Industry**: High-speed optical modules and humanoid robots - **Key Players**: Nvidia, NewEase, Shijia Photon, Songyan Power, Xinjie Electric, and others High-speed Optical Modules - Nvidia has open-sourced multiple code reasoning models, which are expected to accelerate the development of high-speed optical modules. The company has successfully launched the latest 800G/1.6T optical module products based on single-wave 200G optical devices [1] - The optical module industry is entering a period of technological iteration and demand restructuring. The 800G remains the mainstream product, while the mass production cycle for 1.6T is longer than expected. Short-term, CPO is unlikely to replace pluggable solutions, and the passive device market is undergoing a value reassessment [2] - Shijia Photon’s CWDMAWG and LANWDMAWG components are widely used in global mainstream optical module companies, holding a major position in the supply of components for 100G to 800G high-speed optical modules. Products for 400G, 800G, and 1.6T MT-FA are in various stages of application and customer validation [2] - NewEase has successfully developed the latest 800G/1.6T optical module products, with a product portfolio that includes VCSEL/EML, silicon photonics, and thin-film lithium niobate technology solutions [2] Humanoid Robots - Songyan Power has launched a new generation of humanoid robots with a female appearance, featuring multi-modal embodied interaction and high degrees of freedom (32 DOF). The robot supports customizable settings and interfaces, allowing for personalized makeup [3] - The global humanoid robot industry is projected to reach $32.4 billion by 2029. The production rhythm of Tesla's humanoid robot, Optimus, is becoming clearer, and the continuous layout by major players (Nvidia, Huawei, etc.) is expected to accelerate the industry's deployment [3] - Xinjie Electric is actively developing components for humanoid robots, including hollow-wound motors and frame-less torque motors, and is planning production lines for these technologies [4] - Shuanglin Co. has engaged with a leading domestic new energy vehicle company to develop a reverse planetary roller screw project for humanoid robots, with the first batch of samples delivered in April 2025 [4] Market Trends - The market has seen a reduction in trading volume compared to the previous trading day, with a decrease in the number of stocks with a trading volume exceeding 1 billion. The sectors of chips, robots, and Huawei concepts have seen a decline in the number of stocks [9] - The market is experiencing a mixed trend, with over 4,000 stocks declining. However, bank stocks have shown strength, and the ST sector remains active [9] Company News - Huina Technology is undergoing a change in its controlling shareholder, with stock resuming trading next week [14] - Longsys Technology has signed contracts worth over 5 billion yuan for lithium iron phosphate cathode materials [14] - Furi Electronics is providing ODM/JDM services for Huawei's smart devices [14] - Xinhongye has established a subsidiary focused on developing cables for humanoid robots and low-altitude aircraft [14] Conclusion - The high-speed optical module and humanoid robot industries are poised for significant growth, driven by technological advancements and increasing demand. Companies are actively developing new products and forming strategic partnerships to capitalize on these trends.

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Industry**: Optical Modules and Humanoid Robots - **Key Players**: Nvidia, Shijia Photon, Xinyi Technology, Songyan Power, Xin Yi Sheng, Xinjie Electric, and others Key Points on Optical Modules - Nvidia has open-sourced multiple code reasoning models, which are expected to accelerate the development of high-speed optical modules. The company has successfully launched the latest 800G/1.6T optical module products based on single-wave 200G optical devices [1] - The optical module industry is entering a phase of technological selection and demand restructuring. The 800G remains the mainstream product, while the 1.6T production cycle is longer than expected. CPO is unlikely to replace pluggable solutions in the short term, and the passive device market is undergoing a value reassessment [2] - Shijia Photon’s CWDMAWG and LANWDMAWG components are widely used in major global optical module companies, holding a significant position in the supply of components for 100G to 800G high-speed optical modules. Products for 400G, 800G, and 1.6T MT-FA are in various stages of application and customer validation [2] - New Yi Sheng has launched the latest 800G/1.6T optical module products based on single-wave 200G optical devices, with a product portfolio that includes VCSEL/EML, silicon photonics, and thin-film lithium niobate technology solutions [2] Key Points on Humanoid Robots - Songyan Power has released a new generation of humanoid robots with a female appearance, featuring multi-modal embodied interaction, high degrees of freedom (32 DOF), and near-human facial expressions. The company has already surpassed 1,000 units in orders for its N2 robot [3] - The global humanoid robot industry is expected to reach a scale of $32.4 billion by 2029. Institutions predict that Tesla's humanoid robot, Optimus, will gradually clarify its mass production rhythm, alongside continuous layouts from major players like Nvidia, Huawei, and others, indicating a potential acceleration in the humanoid robot industry [3] - Xinjie Electric is actively developing components for humanoid robots, including hollow cup motors and frameless torque motors, and is planning production lines for these technologies. The company has successfully developed a ball screw product for humanoid robot dexterous hands and is in the process of customer validation [4] Additional Insights - The optical module industry is experiencing a return to a 2-3 year iteration rhythm for industry chain upgrades, and the secondary market should rationally view technological evolution and performance realization [2] - The humanoid robot sector is seen as a significant opportunity for industrial upgrades, with expectations for explosive growth starting in 2025 [3] - The market has shown a mixed performance, with a decrease in the number of stocks exceeding 1 billion in trading volume, particularly in the chip and robot sectors [9] Conclusion - The optical module and humanoid robot industries are poised for significant growth driven by technological advancements and increasing demand. Key players are actively innovating and expanding their product offerings, indicating a robust market outlook.

Core Viewpoint - Chengdu Xinyi Communication Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Xinyi") has demonstrated significant growth in net profit for the fiscal year 2024 and the first quarter of 2025, with year-on-year growth rates of 312.26% and 384.54% respectively, raising questions about the sustainability of this growth [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, Xinyi's domestic and international revenue reached 1.842 billion yuan and 6.805 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 265.95% and 162.31% respectively [2]. - The company's foreign revenue accounted for 78.7% of total revenue in 2024, indicating a strong international market presence despite geopolitical and trade policy challenges [2]. Group 2: Business Strategy - Xinyi plans to enhance its market promotion and customer expansion efforts both domestically and internationally, focusing on collaboration with leading global communication equipment manufacturers and internet companies [2]. - The company aims to continuously optimize its product and customer structure to improve market share [2]. Group 3: Product Development - Xinyi has made significant advancements in R&D, successfully launching the latest 800G/1.6T optical module products based on single-wave 200G optical devices, and expanding its product range to include various high-speed optical module solutions [2]. - The production capacity, output, and sales of Xinyi's point-to-point optical modules in 2024 were 10.6 million units, 9.79 million units, and 8.73 million units respectively, all showing year-on-year growth [2]. Group 4: Operational Efficiency - The establishment of the second phase of Xinyi's factory in Thailand, which began operations in early 2025, is expected to positively impact the company's production capacity [2].