Report Overview - The report focuses on the supply and demand analysis and annual outlook of butadiene in China, covering upstream supply, downstream demand, and annual supply - demand balance [3][47] Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - China's butadiene self - sufficiency rate has been above 90%, but there is still a supply - demand gap. The capacity is expanding, with an expected 761.7 million tons/year by the end of 2025, a 14.77% year - on - year increase [3][11] - In 2025, both upstream and downstream of butadiene have new projects. The downstream production growth rate is lower than the upstream, and a stockpiling cycle is expected [3][51] Summary by Directory Butadiene Upstream Supply Analysis Butadiene Capacity Historical Changes and Current Situation - From 2008 - 2014, the capacity expanded rapidly from 178.9 million tons to 359.5 million tons, with an average annual growth rate of 12.46%. It was mainly due to the development of the ethylene industry and new device launches [9] - From 2015 - 2016, the capacity growth rate declined, and some backward small - scale devices exited [9] - From 2017 - 2020, the capacity recovered, and the import dependence gradually decreased [10] - Since 2021, the industry has entered a mature development stage, with technological progress and a shift towards high - end products [10] - By the end of 2025, the capacity is expected to reach 761.7 million tons/year, with a 98 - million - ton new capacity this year [11][12] Butadiene Production and Imports and Exports - The self - sufficiency rate has increased, and the upstream device operating rate is stable at around 70%. In 2024, the production was 470 million tons, a 2.02% year - on - year increase. The expected nominal production growth rate this year is 9% [14] - The import dependence is stable at around 7%, mainly from South Korea, the Middle East, Southeast Asia, Europe, and the US. The import volume is expected to decline this year [14] Butadiene Downstream Demand Main Areas Analysis Cis - Polybutadiene Rubber - From 2009 - 2014, the capacity grew rapidly, with an average growth rate of 22.17%. From 2015 - 2021, the growth slowed down, and in 2016, the total capacity decreased. Since 2022, the capacity has recovered, with a 20 - million - ton new device planned in 2025 [18] - The production profit has been low since last year, and the operating rate is expected to remain low. The production profit may recover due to a lower production growth rate than butadiene [24] Styrene - Butadiene Rubber - From 2008 - 2014, the capacity grew rapidly, with an average growth rate of 14.5%. From 2015 - 2024, the growth slowed down, and in 2019 and 2024, the total capacity decreased. In 2025, a 40 - million - ton new device is planned [28][30] - The production profit improved in the first half of this year but recently declined. With more new projects, the profit is expected to weaken, and the operating rate may be affected [33] ABS - Since 2021, the capacity has been expanding, with high growth rates in 2021 - 2023 and a lower but still positive growth in 2024. The production declined in 2024, and the annual operating rate was lower [35] - The production profit was negative in 2024 on average but is currently positive, which may support the operating rate this year [35] SBS - Currently, the new capacity is stable, with a 55.5 - million - ton new capacity planned in 2025 [40] - The production gross profit is at a low level, and the operating rate is expected to be the same as last year due to weak domestic consumption [42] Nitrile Rubber - From 2008 - 2012, the capacity grew rapidly, with an average annual growth rate of 33%. From 2013 - 2021, it developed steadily, with an average growth rate of 1%. Since 2022, the growth has slowed to 7% [43] - In 2025, a 4 - million - ton new device was launched, and 3 - million - ton old capacity exited, with a net increase of 1 - million - ton. The production profit is expected to recover, and the operating rate may increase [45] Butadiene Annual Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Outlook - In 2025, butadiene is expected to have a 98 - million - ton new capacity, with a nominal capacity growth rate of 14.77%. The downstream production growth rate is lower, and a stockpiling cycle is expected [47][51] - The port inventory accounts for about 34% of the domestic social inventory on average since 2019, and the domestic social inventory accounts for about 7% of the annual cumulative production since 2016. So, the port inventory accounts for about 2.4% of the supply [3][54]

德国化工企业科思创（Covestro）日前宣布，已开始通过电动重卡向 中国巨石 运输原材料，首次将电 动卡车日常运输延伸至客户端。 作为科思创绿色物流项目的一部分，一台电动重卡已在科思创上海一体化基地与中国巨石位于浙江桐乡 的工厂之间定期运行。该路线往返超过200公里。根据第三方物流服务商测算（基于本地柴油与电动卡 车的排放因子，以及科思创对该电动卡车线路货运量的预估），预计每年较传统柴油车运输可降低约 36.9吨或47%的二氧化碳排放。 这标志着科思创在推进化工行业供应链脱碳的道路上又迈出关键一步。此前，公司已在上海一体化基地 采用电动卡车开展短驳运输，将化学品运送至周边仓库。 "供应链在化工行业迈向气候中性的进程中发挥着至关重要的作用。"科思创亚太区供应链与物流高级副 总裁Marius Wirtz表示，"此次与中国巨石合作推进可持续物流的商业化部署，充分证明这一方案不仅切 实可行，也具备规模化潜力。我们致力于携手更多合作伙伴，持续探索并推动兼具环境效益与商业价值 的运输解决方案。" 可规模化的物流解决方案 此次合作也是中国巨石与合作方首次系统性采用 新能源 物流方案。中国巨石是全球最大的玻纤生产 商，其产 ...

伊朗甲醇装置停车，甲醇价格再度冲高 甲醇日报 | 2025-06-17 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤410元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润698元/吨（+3）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线1993元/吨（+3），内蒙北线基差129元/吨（-73），内蒙南线1890元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2380元/吨（+115）， 鲁南基差116元/吨（+40）；河南2300元/吨（+175），河南基差36元/吨（+100）；河北2130元/吨（+25），河北基差-74 元/吨（-50）。隆众内地工厂库存379120吨（+8630），西北工厂库存237100吨（+2600）；隆众内地工厂待发订单302090 吨（+39910），西北工厂待发订单167000吨（+17000）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2585元/吨（+95），太仓基差121元/吨（+20），CFR中国285美元/吨（+13），华东进口价差-15 元/吨（+0），常州甲醇2520元/吨；广东甲醇2480元/吨（+70），广东基差16元/吨（-5）。隆众港口总库存652200吨 （+71000），江苏港口库存312000吨（+3 ...

Group 1 - A new catalyst has been developed by researchers from Anhui University of Technology and other institutions, enabling the direct synthesis of para-xylene from carbon dioxide and hydrogen, breaking the world record for production efficiency of such catalysts [1][2] - Para-xylene (PX) is a critical raw material for producing chemical products, with an annual demand in China exceeding 30 million tons. The traditional production method relies on processing heavy oil, which is energy-intensive and generates high emissions [1] - The new method utilizes renewable energy to produce hydrogen, which is then reacted with carbon dioxide to manufacture PX, offering a greener alternative to conventional high-energy and high-emission production processes [1] Group 2 - The newly developed "metal oxide-molecular sieve" composite catalyst operates in two parts: the metal oxide facilitates the reaction between carbon dioxide and hydrogen to form simple olefins, while the molecular sieve assembles these olefins into the final PX product [2] - The molecular sieve has been designed with a unique "capsulation" approach to minimize impurities in the final product, resulting in unprecedented production efficiency, with over 1 kilogram of PX produced per kilogram of catalyst in a day [2] - The design concept of the composite catalyst is considered universal, with potential applications in other reaction systems that utilize carbon dioxide and hydrogen to produce high-value chemical products, enabling customized production [2]

Core Viewpoint - The ethylene glycol market is experiencing price fluctuations, significant losses in profitability, and an increase in operating rates despite overall industry challenges [1] Price and Profitability - Futures main contract prices have decreased from 4279 CNY/ton to 4250 CNY/ton, while spot prices in East China remain stable at 4315 CNY/ton, leading to an expanded basis of 120 CNY/ton [1] - The overall profitability of the industry chain is deeply negative, with naphtha-based, ethylene-based, and methanol-based production showing losses of -115.45 USD/ton, -646.81 CNY/ton, and -1297.07 CNY/ton respectively, and coal-based production maintaining a loss of -258 CNY/ton [1] Operating Rates - Despite the losses, both oil-based and coal-based production capacities have increased, with oil-based operating rates rising significantly by 6.65% to 62.51% and coal-based rates increasing by 4.24% to 52.64%, resulting in a total operating rate increase of 3% to 58.66% [1] Demand and Inventory - Polyester load remains stable at 89.42%, while weaving machine load in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is at 63.43%, indicating a clear demand for end products [1] - The inventory at major ports in East China has decreased significantly by 5.72% to 563,800 tons, with Zhangjiagang's inventory dropping sharply by 23.85% to 166,000 tons, and weekly arrivals decreasing by 26.42% to 100,800 tons, alleviating some import pressure [1] Supply and Cost Dynamics - The current market conflict centers around collapsing costs and mismatched supply and demand [1] - Although rising crude oil prices have marginally increased naphtha production costs, cash flows across all production routes remain in the negative [1] - The supply increase is attributed to the concentrated restart of oil-based facilities and improved utilization rates of coal-based production, with ethylene production rates also recovering by 3.72% [1] Future Outlook - The ethylene glycol market's supply-demand structure appears relatively favorable, but expectations of weakened demand may limit upward momentum in prices [1] - If the anticipated demand peak in the coming months fails to materialize or if coal chemical production accelerates, prices may test lower levels again [1]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights the price increase of Bacillus thuringiensis (百菌清) and the potential benefits for related companies due to rising production costs and environmental policy upgrades [3][12] - The report indicates a positive outlook for the adipic acid (己二酸) market, with a price increase and strong demand from downstream nylon production [4][13][14] - The report suggests focusing on integrated leading companies in the adipic acid sector, as well as other segments like petrochemicals and agrochemicals, due to favorable supply conditions and rising prices [5][17] Summary by Sections 1. Industry News and Events - Bacillus thuringiensis price increased to 30,000 CNY/ton, with a 68.57% year-on-year rise, benefiting companies like Limin Co., Sulih Co., and Taihe Co. [3][12] - Adipic acid market price rose to 7,233 CNY/ton, a 6.63% increase, driven by strong demand from nylon production [4][13][14] 2. Chemical Sector Performance - The report notes that the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.25%, while the Shenwan Petrochemical Index rose by 3.50%, outperforming the market [5][18] - The top-performing sub-sectors included oil and gas engineering, with a 9.33% increase, while viscose saw a decline of 3.40% [20][24] 3. Key Product Price Trends - Key products with notable price increases included WTI crude oil (7.17%), Brent crude oil (6.22%), and adipic acid (3.77%) [28][29] - Products experiencing price declines included Vitamin E (-14.67%) and dichloromethane (-8.47%) [28][29] 4. Investment Recommendations - Recommendations include focusing on integrated players in the refining-PX-PTA chain, such as Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical [5][17] - Attention is also drawn to leading companies in the refrigerant sector and those involved in agricultural chemicals due to favorable market conditions [5][17]

| 项目类别 数据指标 | | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 纯碱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 纯碱与玻璃价差(日,元/吨) | | 1174 194 | 18 玻璃主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 14 纯碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 980 1546922 | 4 -59463 | | 期货市场 | | | | | | | 玻璃主力合约持仓量(日,手) | | 1448684 | 22530 纯碱前20名净持仓 | -248256 | 36120 | | 玻璃前20名净持仓 | | -235043 | -20310 纯碱交易所仓单(日,吨) | 6642 | -1062 | | 玻璃交易所仓单(日,吨) | | 877 | 0 纯碱9月-1月合约价差 | 3 | -7 | | 玻璃合约9月-1月价差 | | -59 | 0 纯碱基差(日,元/吨) | 54 | -11 | | 玻璃基差(日,元/吨) | | 68 | 1 | | | | 华北重碱(日,元/吨) | | 1210 | -30 华中重碱(日,元/ ...

I 化工 归因:中国每年要进口超过1200万吨的甲醇,其中 300万吨来自伊朗。碳酸锡的核心原料天青石,中国有 70%依赖伊朗进口。 6月16日涨停分析 今日共55股涨停，连板股总数17只，21股封板未遂，封板率为72%（不含ST股、退市股）。焦点股方面，稳定币概念股元隆雅图12天8板、金时科技10天7 板，创新药概念股昂利康10天6板，核污染防治概念股捷强装备20CM2连板。 | 股票名称 | 板数 | 涨跌幅 | 涨停时间 | 上涨逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 元隆雅图 | 12天8板 | 9.99% | 10:36 | RWA+IP | | 002878 | | | | 经济 | | 金时科技 | 10天7板 | 10.03% | 13:25 | 蚂蚁概念 | | 002951 | | | | +RWA | | 东信和平 | 6天3板 | 10.03% | 09:32 | 数字货币 | | 002017 | | | | | | 协鑫能科 | 2天2板 | 9.96% | 09:30 | 蚂蚁概念 | | 002015 | | | | +RWA | | 海联 ...

1. Report Core View - The launch of new propylene futures is expected to promote the combination of futures and spot markets, enhance and meet the diverse risk management needs of physical enterprises, help the market discover prices, and further promote the healthy and stable development of the industry. The report comprehensively analyzes and introduces the propylene variety from a basic perspective, covering futures contracts, industry characteristics, and development trends [2][3] 2. Report Content Summary 2.1 Propylene Futures Contract - **Contract Introduction**: The trading code of propylene futures is PL, with a trading unit of 20 tons per lot. Based on the average spot price of propylene in 2024 of about 6,900 yuan/ton, the value of each lot is about 138,000 yuan. The minimum price change is 1 yuan/ton, and the contract months are from January to December. The last trading day is the 10th trading day of the contract month [7][9][10] - **Option Contract**: The trading code for call options is PL - contract month - C - strike price, and for put options is PL - contract month - P - strike price. The trading unit is 1 lot of propylene futures contract, the minimum price change is 0.5 yuan/ton, and the contract months are the two consecutive near - months of the underlying futures contract. The last trading day is the third - last trading day before (and including) the 15th calendar day of the month before the delivery month of the underlying futures contract [12] - **Delivery Grade**: The benchmark delivery product is Type I propylene that meets the requirements of "National Standard of the People's Republic of China - Polymer - grade Propylene" (GB/T 7716 - 2024), with a water content ≤ 20mg/kg, and no requirements for hydrogen and carbonyl sulfide. The alternative delivery product allows a water content of 20 - 50mg/kg, with other indicators the same as the benchmark product [7][14] - **Risk Management**: The minimum trading margin for propylene futures contracts is 5% of the contract value. The margin standard increases to 10% from the 16th calendar day of the month before the delivery month to the last calendar day of that month, and to 20% during the delivery month. The position limit for non - futures company members and customers is 2,000 lots from contract listing to the 15th calendar day of the month before the delivery month, 500 lots from the 16th calendar day to the last calendar day of that month, and 50 lots (0 for natural person customers) during the delivery month [16][17][18] 2.2 Propylene Basic Concepts - **Physical Properties**: Propylene has a density of 1.914 kg/m³, a melting point of - 185°C, a boiling point of - 47.7°C, a flash point of - 108°C, an ignition temperature of 460°C, and a saturated vapor pressure of 1158 kPa. It burns with a bright flame, has low solubility in water, and is soluble in organic solvents such as ethanol and ether [20] - **Chemical Properties**: The chemical properties of propylene are determined by the double bond and the hydrogen atoms on the allyl group. It is the smallest stable unsaturated hydrocarbon with low symmetry, an electric dipole moment of 0.35D, and is prone to various chemical reactions [21] - **Storage and Transportation**: Propylene should be stored in pressurized liquefied form in carbon steel or stainless - steel containers, and long - term storage can use low - temperature liquefaction with vacuum - insulated storage tanks. Safety measures such as fire and explosion prevention, leakage prevention, and electrostatic protection are required. Transportation methods include road, rail, sea, and pipeline, and appropriate means should be selected according to distance and volume [24] 2.3 Propylene Industry Chain - **Overview**: The propylene industry chain has the "petroleum - propylene - polypropylene" as the core. The upstream includes petroleum, natural gas, coal, propane, naphtha, and methanol. The mid - stream involves production processes such as cracking, dehydrogenation, and coal - chemical processes. The downstream includes chemicals such as polypropylene, propylene oxide, and butanol, and the end - use demand is complex, covering multiple fields such as plastics, coatings, and textiles [26] - **Production Processes** - **Steam Cracking**: It is the core process for producing low - carbon olefins in the petrochemical industry, with ethylene as the core product and propylene as a co - product. In 2024, it accounted for about 35% of propylene supply. The product yield is negatively correlated with the molecular weight of the raw material. Although it currently maintains a basic supply position, its share is gradually decreasing [32] - **Catalytic Cracking**: It is a key secondary processing technology in oil refining. The conventional propylene yield is about 4%, while the DCC technology can achieve a propylene yield of over 20% [36] - **Coal - to - Propylene**: It includes CTO and MTO/MTP technologies. The MTP technology can increase the propylene selectivity to over 70%. China's coal - to - olefin industry is on a sustainable development path [39] - **Propane/Alkane Dehydrogenation**: The PDH process uses propane as the raw material and has advantages such as a short construction period, low investment cost, and low carbon emissions. In 2024, it accounted for about 30% of domestic propylene production capacity. The MDH process uses liquefied petroleum gas as the raw material and has strong raw material adaptability [41][42]

Core Viewpoint - Xingfa Group has experienced significant growth since its listing in 1999, with its market value increasing from 1.824 billion to 23.687 billion, reflecting deep industry chain layout despite noticeable performance fluctuations in recent years [1][3]. Business Overview - Xingfa Group's main business includes the mining and sales of phosphate rock, production and sales of phosphate, phosphate fertilizers, glyphosate, and organic silicon. The core products are mainly special chemicals and pesticides, with special chemicals accounting for 18.59% and pesticides for 18.33% of revenue [3]. Financial Performance - Since its listing, Xingfa Group has achieved a cumulative profit growth of 5982.55%, with net profit increasing from 0.026 billion in 1999 to 1.601 billion in 2024. The company has not reported a loss in any year, with 19 years of profit growth, representing 73.08% of the time [3]. - Revenue analysis shows that Xingfa Group's revenue grew from 18.39 billion in 2020 to 28.396 billion in 2024, with a pattern of initial growth followed by a decline and then recovery. The company experienced high growth in 2021 and 2022, a decline in 2023, and stability in 2024 [3]. - Profit analysis indicates that net profit rose from 0.618 billion in 2020 to 1.601 billion in 2024, with significant fluctuations, including a 582.05% increase in 2021 and a 76.44% decrease in 2023, followed by a return to growth in 2024 [3]. Market Capitalization - Since its listing, Xingfa Group's market value has increased by 11.99 times, demonstrating strong growth potential. The peak market value reached 65.321 billion on September 23, 2021, with a corresponding stock price of 58.38. As of June 13, the market value was 23.687 billion, reflecting a decrease of 41.634 billion, or 63.74%, from its peak [5].