Core Insights - The 2026 "Bet on China" top ten core assets have been announced by Gelonghui, a well-known independent research institution in China, based on votes from millions of members across over 70 countries [1][3] - The selection process involved over half a month of voting, resulting in hundreds of thousands of valid votes, emphasizing the collective wisdom of global investors [3] Selection Criteria - The selected listed companies must meet four key principles, reflecting the uncertainties in the Chinese investment market for 2025, including fluctuating recovery expectations, real estate stability concerns, and the ambiguity in investment directions related to AI and new energy [2] Performance Metrics - Since the end of 2018, the "Bet on China" top ten core assets index has achieved a cumulative increase of 318.67%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index (+56.2%), Hang Seng index (-0.82%), and S&P 500 index (+175.3%) [3] - In 2025, the equal-weighted return of the top ten core assets reached 35.1%, again surpassing the CSI 300 index (+17.7%), Hang Seng index (+27.8%), and S&P 500 index (+17.3%) [3] Core Assets Overview 1. **Zhongji Xuchuang (300308)**: Expected to benefit from the acceleration of AI computing infrastructure in China, with a projected demand for optical modules reaching 18 billion yuan, and a 50% annual growth in domestic demand for 800G optical modules [5] 2. **Tencent Holdings (00700.HK)**: With a massive user base, Tencent is expected to see its advertising revenue exceed 40 billion yuan in 2026, driven by its social media platforms and AI efficiency improvements [6][7] 3. **Alibaba (09988.HK)**: Anticipated to achieve 170 billion yuan in revenue from cloud services, with a growth rate of 34%, while also focusing on domestic consumption upgrades [7][8] 4. **Gold ETF (518880)**: Positioned as a key hedging tool for domestic investors, with a forecasted gold price potentially reaching 5,000 USD per ounce, supported by liquidity and geopolitical factors [8] 5. **Luoyang Molybdenum (603993/03993.HK)**: Expected to produce 660,000 tons of copper and 120,000 tons of cobalt in 2026, benefiting from the growth of the domestic electric vehicle market [9] 6. **Ping An Insurance (601318/02318.HK)**: Projected to see a 20%-25% increase in market value, benefiting from the domestic interest rate cycle and a focus on quality equity assets [10] 7. **Dongfang Caifu (300059)**: Anticipated to see a 22%-28% growth in market value, driven by increased capital market activity and AI-driven wealth management services [11] 8. **Wanhua Chemical (600309)**: Expected to achieve a net profit of 15.5-16.2 billion yuan in 2026, supported by domestic demand for MDI and new materials [12] 9. **WuXi AppTec (02268.HK)**: Positioned as a leader in the ADC field, with over 60% of its pipeline serving domestic clients, reflecting the growth of China's biopharmaceutical industry [13] 10. **Trip.com Group (09961.HK)**: Projected to see a revenue growth of over 25%, benefiting from the recovery of domestic travel and tourism [14] Conclusion - The ten core assets are aligned with China's key sectors such as AI computing, new energy, consumption, finance, and biomedicine, reflecting the country's new productive forces and upgrading of livelihoods [14]

Group 1 - The report indicates that China is entering a period of prosperity similar to Japan in 1978, driven by high industrial value added and export ratios, along with continued trade surpluses and wage growth [1][11] - The cash flow statements of the real economy in China have been damaged from 2022 to 2024 due to the Fed's interest rate hikes and a decline in real estate prices, leading to capital outflows and reduced cash flow [2][12] - The resumption of the Fed's interest rate cuts is expected to reverse the outflow of cross-border capital, thereby repairing the cash flow statements of enterprises and households [3][13] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the necessity of debt restructuring in China, drawing parallels with Japan's experience in the 1990s, where failure to act led to prolonged economic stagnation [4][14] - The potential for the Fed's quantitative easing (QE) to provide the necessary liquidity for China's central bank to undertake debt restructuring is highlighted, which could alleviate external constraints on the yuan [4][14] - The year 2026 is projected to mark the beginning of a new prosperity phase for China's economy, with a cyclical shift expected in manufacturing and consumption sectors [6][15] Group 3 - The report recommends a selection of stocks for January 2026, including Huafeng Aluminum, Zijin Mining, and TCL Technology, among others, indicating a focus on sectors poised for growth [9][10] - The automotive sector is highlighted, with Great Wall Motors and Leap Motor being noted for their strategic positioning in high-end and global markets [32][38] - In the chemical sector, Dongfang Tower is recognized for its growth potential driven by increasing potassium and phosphorus production [41][43]

Core Viewpoint - Five new stocks will be available for subscription next week, with Shuangxin Environmental Protection ranking sixth in total shares issued among new A-shares in 2025 and first among new stocks on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [1] Group 1: New Stock Offerings - The new stocks available for subscription include Jianxin Superconductor, Jiangtian Technology, Qiangyi Co., Yufan Technology, and Shuangxin Environmental Protection [1] - Jianxin Superconductor has an issue price of 18.58 yuan per share and a total issuance of 41.92 million shares, with 10.06 million shares available for online subscription [2] - Jiangtian Technology's issue price is 21.21 yuan per share, with a total issuance of 13.21 million shares, and 11.89 million shares available for online subscription [9][10] Group 2: Company Profiles - Jianxin Superconductor specializes in the R&D, production, and sales of core components for MRI equipment, with a global market share of approximately 4.2% [2] - Jiangtian Technology focuses on the R&D and production of label printing products, with major clients including Yangshengtang and Nongfu Spring [10] - Qiangyi Co. is a leading enterprise in the semiconductor probe card industry, with significant growth in revenue expected [14][17] Group 3: Financial Performance - Jianxin Superconductor's revenue for 2022 to 2024 is projected at 3.59 billion yuan, 4.51 billion yuan, and 4.25 billion yuan, with a net profit of 346.35 million yuan, 487.35 million yuan, and 557.84 million yuan respectively [5] - Jiangtian Technology's revenue for the same period is expected to be 3.84 billion yuan, 5.07 billion yuan, and 5.38 billion yuan, with net profits of 744.54 million yuan, 964.61 million yuan, and 1.02 billion yuan [10] - Shuangxin Environmental Protection anticipates a revenue of 37.18 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a growth of 6.66% [25]

Core Viewpoint - China Sanjiang Chemical (02198) has entered into a purchase agreement with Jiahua Energy Chemical for the supply of ammonia water, effective from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2026, which aims to regulate the supplier-customer relationship [1] Group 1: Agreement Details - The agreement includes the supply of ammonia water, a byproduct generated during the production process [1] - The collaboration is non-exclusive and aims to create new sales avenues for ammonia water [1] - The proximity of the production bases of both companies in the same economic and technological development zone will reduce transportation costs for supplying ammonia water [1]

Core Viewpoint - Data is not merely for recording the past but serves as a key to understanding supply and demand changes, industry structure, and technology diffusion [1] Group 1: Market Research and Insights - The company provides standardized research and customized projects across multiple industries, continuously publishing structured insights and report highlights for easy reference [3] - A reusable path identified in past research involves reading demand direction from data slopes and adjusting rhythm and risk boundaries based on industry structure and technology diffusion speed [3] - The consumer-grade NAS market is expected to grow from $3.1 billion to $7.4 billion from 2023 to 2030, with a CAGR of 12.8%, indicating a high slope market suitable for expansion-driven investment [3] Group 2: Industry Trends and Recommendations - The ion liquid sector shows a "highly concentrated, steadily strengthening" structural characteristic, with a projected CAGR of 9.1% from 2025 to 2031, suggesting a focus on differentiated scenarios and localized services [4] - For sectors in the "S-curve acceleration phase," such as PAA negative electrode glue, a high-frequency monitoring approach is recommended to mitigate disturbances from technology and supply sides, with a CAGR of 26% from 2025 to 2031 [4] Group 3: Strategic Approaches - The company identifies three strategic prototypes: scaling, efficiency, and acceleration, with technology factors being crucial in reading market patterns [5] - The IoT operating system is projected to grow at a CAGR of 33.3% from 2024 to 2031, driven by the resonance of application readiness and ecosystem maturity, indicating a shift from pilot projects to scalable replication [5] Group 4: Service Offerings - The company offers a full-chain service from "problem to value," providing standardized industry reports that support rapid decision-making on market size, structure, competitive landscape, pricing, and risks [6] - Customized research, due diligence, feasibility studies, and IPO support are provided for various scenarios, ensuring actionable recommendations and templates for clients [6] Group 5: Research Methodology - The company emphasizes starting all analyses from business problems and falsifiable hypotheses, using multi-source evidence to stabilize conclusions and integrate them into business processes [7] - The approach includes causal identification and quasi-experimental design to elevate observable correlations to executable causations, ensuring consistency and comparability across industries [7] Group 6: Client Feedback and Practices - The company archives client feedback and service improvement mechanisms on its website, facilitating standardized citation and reference for enterprises in their reports [8] - A "Q&A case" section showcases systematic answers to typical industry questions, allowing clients to track long-term issues using the same metrics and assumptions [8] Group 7: Expert Insights - Analysts emphasize that data serves as clues rather than answers, with the responsibility to transform clues into evidence and actions, subject to market validation [9] - Observing data slopes, identifying concentration patterns, and assessing technology diffusion speeds are fundamental methods for translating data into market rules [9]

Market Overview - The futures market for paraxylene (PX) is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract reported at 7330.0 yuan/ton, a significant drop of 2.14% [1] - As of December 24, Asian isomer MX increased by $5 to $723/ton FOB Korea, while Asian PX also rose by $5 to $880/ton FOB Korea and $901/ton CFR China [1] Production and Capacity - As of December 26, China's PX operating rate was at 88.2%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous period [1] - The operating rate for Asian PX was reported at 79.5%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points [1] - In terms of imports, South Korea exported 283,000 tons of PX to China in mid-December, an increase of 8,000 tons year-on-year [1] Institutional Insights - Newhu Futures indicates that the PX fundamentals are relatively stable in the short term, with a tight supply-demand balance expected to persist until new capacity comes online before Q3 next year, leading to an optimistic market outlook for PX [3] - Guotai Junan Futures notes a marginal easing on the supply side, with several PX facilities undergoing maintenance or restarting, while domestic PX operating rates remain high at 88.2% [3] - The demand side shows a decrease in PTA operating rates to 70.9%, with several facilities either restarting or reducing output, indicating a potential shift in PX supply and demand dynamics [3]

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices are experiencing fluctuations due to concerns over oversupply, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices declining by 2.76% and 2.57% respectively, as geopolitical tensions continue to impact the market [2][29]. Oil Supply and Demand - China's offshore oil production is projected to reach approximately 68 million tons by 2025, accounting for about 80% of the country's total oil production increase [3][30]. - Global liquid fuel consumption is expected to average 104 million barrels per day, an increase of approximately 1.1 million barrels per day year-on-year, while global oil supply is projected to reach 105 million barrels per day, growing at a rate of 2.6% [3][30]. - Venezuela's oil exports are critical to its economy, with the country condemning U.S. actions against its oil tankers as piracy [3][30]. Regional Market Dynamics - West African crude oil sellers are struggling to find buyers due to intense competition from cheaper alternatives, with over 20 million barrels of Nigerian oil remaining unsold as of December 18 [4][31]. - The overall commodity market is showing significant divergence, with traditional energy prices continuing to decline amid a loose supply-demand balance [4][31]. Fuel Oil Market - High and low sulfur fuel oil supplies remain ample, with Kuwait's Al-Zour refinery expected to contribute to increased low sulfur fuel oil shipments [5][32]. - China's high sulfur fuel oil imports were approximately 1.1 million tons in November, reflecting a month-on-month increase [5][32]. Asphalt Production - China's asphalt production for January 2026 is estimated at around 2.1 million tons, a decrease of 6% from December's production plan [8][35]. - The demand for asphalt is expected to be hindered by adverse weather conditions, impacting both northern and southern markets [8][35]. Rubber Market - Global natural rubber production is expected to decline by 2.6% in November, while consumption is projected to decrease by 1.4% [10][37]. - China's tire manufacturers are experiencing varying operational rates, with half-steel tire production at 72.05% and full-steel tire production at 61.95% [10][37].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview Real Estate Market - Relaxation of real estate policies in first-tier cities significantly supports demand for low-priced housing, with expectations for other core cities to follow suit, potentially leading to more measures to stabilize the real estate market, such as land acquisition and mortgage interest subsidies [1][2][4] - Recent policy changes in Beijing include allowing multi-child families to purchase additional properties and lowering social security requirements for non-residents, which are expected to stimulate demand for affordable housing [2][4] Coal Market - Domestic supply tightening and demand recovery have led to a narrowing decline in thermal coal prices, with expectations for price stabilization in the future [1][5] - The market for coking coal is under short-term pressure due to increased imports and expectations of lower downstream demand for coke, with a forecast of a weak and stable trend for coke prices [1][6] - By 2026, the thermal coal market supply-demand balance is expected to improve, benefiting companies like China Shenhua due to reduced imports from Indonesia [1][8][9] Cleanroom Engineering Industry - The cleanroom engineering market is projected to reach 350 billion yuan by 2026, driven by demand from the electronics industry, particularly in semiconductor and AI technology sectors [1][10][12] - Key players in the cleanroom engineering sector include Shenghui Integration and Yaxiang Integration, which have shown significant revenue growth and are expanding their market presence [12][13] Solar Thermal Power - The government aims to achieve a total installed capacity of 15 million kilowatts for solar thermal power by 2030, with policies in place to support this growth and improve revenue structures for solar thermal plants [1][14][15] - Companies to watch in this sector include Xizi Energy and Material Energy, which have experience in related projects and technologies [15] Key Market Trends and Projections PX and PTA Market - PX prices have risen due to limited new supply expected in the coming years, with a significant increase in demand from downstream products [1][18][19] - PTA is also experiencing a supply vacuum, with no new capacity added this year, leading to improved supply-demand dynamics by 2026 [1][19] Polyester Filament Yarn Industry - The polyester filament yarn industry is seeing price increases due to coordinated production cuts among major manufacturers, with a positive outlook for 2026 driven by both domestic and international demand [1][20] Organic Silicon Market - The organic silicon market is expected to improve in supply-demand balance, with a focus on new applications in renewable energy and electric vehicles driving demand growth [1][21][22] - Companies to monitor include Hesheng Silicon, Xin'an Chemical, and Dongyue Silicon [22][23] Investment Opportunities - Recommended companies for investment consideration include: - In the polyester chain: Tongkun Co., New Fengming, Hengyi Petrochemical, and others [23] - In the organic silicon sector: Hesheng Silicon, Xin'an Chemical, and others [23] This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections from the conference call records, highlighting significant trends and potential investment opportunities across various industries.

Group 1 - The market is no longer focused on a single narrative, with new investment themes emerging as the A-share market experiences a gradual upward trend, indicating a cross-year market rally [2][12][34] - The recent price increase across various industry chains is driven primarily by rising raw material costs, with companies adopting strategies such as voluntary production cuts and joint price increases to maintain competitive order [3][14][16] - The new external circulation pattern is leading to a new cycle of RMB appreciation, driven by factors such as the weakening dollar and seasonal capital inflows, with historical trends suggesting limited impact on export competitiveness [4][21][23][25] Group 2 - A new investment theme for 2026 is emerging, characterized by increased physical consumption across industry chains and a prolonged trading range for bulk commodities, highlighting China's manufacturing advantages [6][29][37] - Recommended sectors include industrial resource products that resonate with AI investment and global manufacturing recovery, as well as Chinese equipment export chains and domestic manufacturing sectors poised for recovery [6][29][37] - The consumer recovery channel is expected to benefit from inbound tourism and rising household income, with sectors such as aviation, hotels, and food and beverage showing potential [6][29][37]

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