港股互联网：全球变局下的复盘与审视，哪些方向值得坚 守？20250512 摘要 • 港股近期修复速度超预期，恒指面临 23,000 点压力位，若风险偏好释放 或上探 24,000 点，恒生科技指数预计修复至 5,200 点，但需警惕超买修 正风险，建议关注确定性机会。 • 中美贸易战对美国是供给冲击，对中国是需求冲击。短期内美国可通过抢 出口和低价原油缓解内部问题，但长期压力较大，当前市场情绪亢奋，需 警惕风险。 • 港股互联网板块抗压性强，受益于内需和 AI 技术重估，如腾讯、阿里、快 手。即便回调或关税变动，仍具左侧配置机会，现金流充裕，美股估值修 复也将带动其重新估值。 • 中长期看，创新药、科技、新消费等领域因业绩阿尔法带来超额收益，值 得重点关注与配置。美股和港股互联网估值差异大，外资大幅回流港股可 能性较低，需经济企稳吸引外资。 • 2025 年初港股反弹因刺激政策预期、关税真空期、DECP 政策及超低估 值，但当前关税已定，反弹动力减弱，应防范回撤。纳斯达克回撤控制优 于港股，超买状态下应防控风险。 Q&A 今年以来港股整体表现如何？ 今年以来，港股整体表现震荡较大。虽然年初至今恒生指数和恒生科 ...

Core Insights - The online music industry in China has seen significant growth, with paid user numbers surpassing 150 million by the end of 2023, indicating a shift towards a more mature and healthy market [1][14] - The market size of China's online music industry reached 23.98 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a remarkable growth rate of 33.1% compared to the previous year [16][17] - The competitive landscape is primarily dominated by Tencent Music Entertainment Group and NetEase Cloud Music, with Tencent holding over 70% market share [1] Industry Overview - Online music refers to music content that is distributed, played, and stored via the internet, allowing users to access a vast array of music resources without the need for physical media [1][6] - The industry has evolved from early piracy issues to a streaming-dominated model, driven by technological innovations and diverse service offerings [8][10] Market Dynamics - The online music industry is characterized by a complex ecosystem that includes content production, technology support, distribution platforms, user engagement, and monetization strategies [12][13] - The growth in paid users is attributed to improved user willingness to pay, enhanced copyright environments, and innovations in AIGC technology [16] Competitive Landscape - The competition in the online music sector has stabilized, primarily between two major players: Tencent Music Entertainment Group and NetEase Cloud Music, leading to a "duopoly" situation [1] - The industry is expected to continue evolving, with ongoing analysis and predictions for market trends from 2025 to 2031 [22][30]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market has been more reliant on valuation-driven fluctuations compared to the US market, with a CAGR of -1.6% over the past decade and a maximum drawdown of 49.9%[12] - The Hang Seng Index experienced a peak increase of 19.9% following the DeepSeek AI asset revaluation, primarily driven by valuation uplift[16] - The Hang Seng Technology Index's maximum drawdown reached 74.1% since its inception, indicating significant volatility in the tech sector[12] Group 2: Key Stock Recommendations - Alibaba (BABA) is expected to see marginal improvements in its e-commerce business, with a potential recovery in take rates and profit stability[3] - Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) is projected to benefit from strong game performance during the Spring Festival and AI-driven advertising revenue growth[3] - NetEase (9999.HK) remains resilient with no tariff impact on its gaming segment, while Kuaishou (1024.HK) shows stable fundamentals[3] Group 3: Sector Insights - The gaming market is anticipated to grow significantly in early 2025, driven by long-standing games and the Spring Festival, with Tencent and NetEase as key players[33] - The advertising sector is expected to see cautious growth in Q1 2025, influenced by policy changes and AI integration, particularly for Tencent[34] - E-commerce competition remains intense, with Alibaba expected to improve its monetization capabilities amidst a recovering consumer sentiment[41] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - Geopolitical risks, underperformance in gaming revenue, and intensified competition in the e-commerce sector pose significant threats to market stability[3] - The overall advertising market growth is projected to be cautious, with potential impacts from macroeconomic conditions and policy changes[36]

Core Viewpoint - Tencent Music (NYSE: TME) continues to show a trend of fundamental divergence, with strong growth in online music services offset by weakness in social entertainment, leading to a cautious outlook on the stock [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Music subscription revenue increased by 18% year-on-year to RMB 4.03 billion, driven by a 13% growth in paid user numbers and gradual ARPU improvement [2] - Social entertainment revenue declined by 13% year-on-year to RMB 1.6 billion due to adjustments in live interaction features and stricter compliance procedures [2] - Projected revenue for 2026 is expected to reach RMB 29.33 billion, with a target multiple of 5.0x, resulting in an implied value of approximately USD 13 per share, reflecting a 10% downside from current levels [5][6] Group 2: User Engagement and Content Strategy - Tencent Music is enhancing platform stickiness to support future ARPU growth, expanding its content library through partnerships with SM Entertainment and Kakao Entertainment [3] - The company is investing in application optimization and AI-driven recommendations, resulting in a 10% increase in user playlists and improved sound quality [3] - SVIP membership numbers are steadily increasing, with enhanced features like high-definition online concerts and an expanded digital library attracting more users [3][4] Group 3: Market Outlook and Valuation - Given the structural decline in social entertainment, Tencent Music's valuation should be based solely on its music subscription and advertising business [4] - Future growth expectations include an 11% CAGR in paid users and a 5% CAGR in ARPU over the next two years, with advertising revenue expected to grow at a 15% CAGR [4][6] - The company is also exploring partnerships for in-car music services, which could drive user growth as the automotive market shifts towards high-tech electric vehicles [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Music (TME.US/1698.HK) and raises the target price to $18 or HKD 70, indicating a potential upside of 19% from the current price of $15.09 [3][5]. Core Insights - Tencent Music's Q4 2024 revenue reached RMB 74.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.2%, surpassing market expectations by 2.4%, primarily driven by better-than-expected social entertainment service revenue [1]. - The adjusted net profit for Q4 2024 was RMB 22.8 billion, exceeding market expectations of RMB 19.4 billion, attributed to improved gross profit and optimized operating expenses [1]. - The online music service revenue grew by 16.1% year-on-year in Q4 2024, supported by subscription and advertising revenue growth [2]. - The report forecasts continued growth in subscription revenue, with an expected ARPU increase to nearly RMB 12 by Q4 2025 [2]. - Social entertainment service revenue showed a sequential recovery, with a 6.0% increase quarter-on-quarter, although it still faced a year-on-year decline of 13.0% [2]. Financial Projections - The report projects the following financial metrics for Tencent Music: - FY24 revenue: RMB 28,401 million - FY25E revenue: RMB 30,817 million - FY26E revenue: RMB 34,176 million - FY27E revenue: RMB 37,711 million - Adjusted net profit for FY25E: RMB 8,627 million [4][10]. - The adjusted net profit margin is expected to improve, with FY25E and FY26E adjusted net profit margins projected at 28.0% and 28.5%, respectively [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Music is "Buy" [7][11]. Core Views - The report highlights that Tencent Music's Q4 2024 performance exceeded expectations, driven by robust growth in paid user numbers and an increase in ARPPU (Average Revenue Per Paying User) [2][4]. - The company is expected to maintain its leading position in the industry, with strong integration capabilities and potential for margin expansion [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, Tencent Music reported revenue of RMB 74.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.2%, and an adjusted net profit of RMB 24 billion, up 43% year-on-year [1][4]. - Online music revenue grew by 16% to RMB 58.3 billion, with subscription revenue increasing by 18% to RMB 40.3 billion [2]. User Growth and ARPPU - The number of online paying users increased by 13.4% year-on-year to 121 million, aligning with expectations [2]. - ARPPU rose to RMB 11.1, reflecting a sequential increase driven by strong growth in SVIP (Super VIP) memberships [2][3]. Profitability and Margin Outlook - The gross margin for Q4 2024 was 43.6%, an increase of 5.3 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The report anticipates further improvement in gross margin to 45% by 2025, supported by growth in paid users and a decrease in revenue share from live streaming [3]. Valuation and Target Price - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been raised to RMB 86.7 billion, RMB 95.4 billion, and RMB 107.4 billion, respectively [4][11]. - The target price is set at USD 19.10 or HKD 68.43, based on a 25x PE multiple for 2025 [4][11].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs sets a 12-month target price of HKD 52.6 for Tencent Music (01698) and maintains a "Buy" rating, highlighting strong financial performance and user growth [1][2]. Financial Performance - Tencent Music's gross margin reached a historical high of 43.6%, up 5 percentage points year-on-year and 1 percentage point quarter-on-quarter, exceeding Goldman Sachs' expectation of 42.9% [1][2]. - Operating profit margin increased by 8 percentage points year-on-year and 3.5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, indicating robust operational efficiency [1]. - The company reported a quarterly net addition of 2 million subscription users, with average revenue per user (ARPU) showing quarter-on-quarter growth [1][3]. - Total operating expenses decreased by 7% year-on-year and 4% quarter-on-quarter, reaching the lowest level since Q2 2019, attributed to effective control over general and administrative expenses and R&D costs [1]. User Growth and Revenue - For Q4 2024, Tencent Music's revenue slightly exceeded expectations with an 8% year-on-year growth, driven by a 16% increase in online music service revenue and strong performance in social entertainment [2]. - The adjusted net profit grew by 45% year-on-year, surpassing market expectations by 18%, with growth accelerating compared to previous quarters [2]. Future Outlook - The target for Q1 2025 is to add over 2 million subscription users, with a focus on balancing user growth and ARPU [3]. - The gross margin is close to the company's mid-term target of 45%, with potential for further improvement through operational leverage and revenue share enhancement [3]. - The company aims to leverage artificial intelligence to personalize services and enhance user experiences [3]. Shareholder Returns - Tencent Music announced a dividend of USD 0.18 per American Depositary Share (ADS) for 2024, a 30% increase from the 2023 fiscal year, and approved a new stock buyback plan of up to USD 1 billion over 24 months starting March 2025 [4].

Core Viewpoint - Tencent Music's Q4 2024 earnings report shows mixed results, with subscription growth under pressure but improved profitability and cost management, indicating potential for future growth despite competitive challenges [1][7]. Subscription Performance - The number of subscription users increased by 2 million in Q4, remaining flat compared to Q3, which aligns with previous guidance [1]. - Subscription revenue grew by 18% year-over-year, driven by an increase in average revenue per paying user (ARPPU) [3][14]. - The company aims to increase its subscription penetration rate to 25%-30%, currently at 21.8% [17]. Profitability and Cost Management - Operating income for the core business reached 2.079 billion CNY, exceeding market expectations, with an operating profit margin of 27.9% [5][21]. - The gross profit margin improved to 43.6%, reflecting effective cost management and operational efficiency [20][21]. - Non-IFRS net income for Q4 was 2.399 billion CNY, a 43% year-over-year increase, primarily due to favorable currency fluctuations [22]. Shareholder Returns - A new share buyback plan of 1 billion USD over two years and a dividend of 273 million USD for 2024 were approved, resulting in a shareholder return yield of 3.5% [2][3]. Competitive Landscape - Monthly active users (MAU) decreased by 20 million to 556 million, raising concerns about competition, particularly from competitors like Kuaishou Music [2][12]. - Kuaishou Music's MAU has surged to nearly 100 million, indicating a significant competitive threat [8][13]. Cash Position - As of the end of Q4, Tencent Music had a net cash position of 25 billion CNY (approximately 3.5 billion USD), which could be utilized for shareholder returns and potential investments [4][23].

Core Viewpoint - Tencent Music Entertainment Group has demonstrated steady growth, becoming a focal point for investors following the release of its latest financial results, which show a dual increase in revenue and net profit, indicating resilience and robust development [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2024, Tencent Music reported total revenue of 28.4 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, and a net profit of 8.14 billion RMB, reflecting a growth of 30.7% [1]. - In the fourth quarter, total revenue reached 7.46 billion RMB, up 8.2% year-on-year, with adjusted net profit increasing by 43% to 2.4 billion RMB [2]. User Growth and Revenue Drivers - The number of online music paying users grew by 13.4% year-on-year to 121 million, with average revenue per paying user (ARPPU) rising to 11.1 RMB [3]. - Online music subscription revenue for the fourth quarter increased by 17.9% to 4.03 billion RMB, driven by the growth in paying users and ARPPU [3]. Strategic Initiatives - Tencent Music's "content and platform dual-wing" strategy has been pivotal in driving growth, enhancing user engagement through diverse content offerings and improved platform functionalities [4][5]. - The company has strengthened partnerships with record labels and expanded its content library, including collaborations with major entertainment companies and classic artists [4][5]. Market Position and Valuation - Tencent Music's business model, which has achieved profitability earlier than similar platforms like Spotify, positions it favorably for future growth, particularly in user penetration and ARPPU [7]. - The announcement of a cash dividend of approximately 273 million USD and a stock buyback plan of up to 1 billion USD over the next 24 months underscores the company's strong financial health and management's confidence in future growth [7][8]. Investor Sentiment - Several brokerage firms have issued positive ratings for Tencent Music, highlighting its robust operational strategies and predictable performance, which enhance investor confidence [6][8].

三大股指期货齐跌 热门中概股盘前走高 英伟达 (NVDA.US)GTC大会重磅来袭 盘前市场动向 1. 3月18日(周二)美股盘前，美股三大股指期货齐跌。截至发稿，道指期货跌0.26%，标普500指数期货跌0.32%，纳指期货 跌0.45%。 | = US 30 | 41,733.70 | 41,893.20 | 41,667.70 | -108.00 | -0.26% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | = US 500 | 5,657.00 | 5,683.50 | 5,650.80 | -18.10 | -0.32% | | 트 US Tech 100 | 19,722.20 | 19,850.70 | 19,705.50 | -90.00 | -0.45% | 2. 截至发稿，德国DAX指数涨1.23%，英国富时100指数涨0.29%，法国CAC40指数涨0.49%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨 0.78%。 | 德国DAX30 | 23,413.62 | 23,475.66 | 23,243.86 | +283.57 | +1.23% | | --- | -- ...