证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·建筑材料 建筑材料行业跟踪周报 服务消费再贷款落地 2025 年 05 月 12 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 周观点：（1）央行落实此前刺激政策，创设 5000 亿服务消费和养老再 贷款，激励引导金融机构加大对住宿餐饮、文体娱乐、教育等服务消费 重点领域和养老产业的金融支持。4 月 CPI 相对平稳，PPI 下行压力加 大，但 4 月房企拿地情况有所好转，整体而言，地产链复苏的方向不变。 在以旧换新补贴和服务消费刺激政策的推动下，我们期待 25 年 Q3 家 装产业链也会迎来明显加速。地产链出清已近尾声，供给格局大幅改善， 25 年需求平稳且企业增长预期较低，板块具备较高的胜率。首选低估值 的消费龙头和扩张型公司，例如北新建材、三棵树、兔宝宝、奥普科技、 欧普照明、伟星新材、欧派家居、箭牌家居等。其次，如果外部需求快 速回落，中西部基建很有可能成为救急的方向，关注华新水泥、四川路 桥、海螺水泥、中国交建、坚朗五金、东方雨虹等。最后，在 25 年流 动性充裕的背景下，科技属性强的公司仍有较高关注度，例如上海港湾、 鸿路钢构、 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the construction materials industry, particularly focusing on cement and glass products, amidst recent monetary policy changes by the central bank [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments - **Monetary Policy Impact**: The central bank announced a 0.5% reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and a 0.1% decrease in policy interest rates, expected to inject approximately 1 trillion yuan into the market [3]. - **Cement Market Performance**: As of May 9, the national cement shipment rates were reported at 48%, with regional rates in East and South China at 52% and 54% respectively, showing a month-on-month decline of 1.5%, 0.9%, and 7.2 percentage points [1]. - **Price Trends**: The average price of cement decreased by 4.5 yuan per ton to 387 yuan per ton, marking a 15 yuan drop since early April [1]. - **Glass Market Update**: The average price of float glass was reported at 1318 yuan per ton, down 14 yuan from the previous week, with inventory levels at 58.17 million heavy boxes, an increase of 3.4% [1]. - **Fiber Market**: The average price of alkali-free glass fiber yarn in East China was 3650 yuan per ton, down 50 yuan from before the May Day holiday [1]. Investment Opportunities - **Excess Return Potential**: Historical data suggests that the construction materials sector has a high probability of achieving excess returns compared to the CSI 300 index when the real estate market shows signs of stability and improvement [3][4]. - **Real Estate Market Indicators**: As of April 28, the second-hand housing price index for first and second-tier cities was 196.84 and 145.02 respectively, indicating a stabilization trend. Notably, the investment amount from 30 monitored real estate companies reached 87.6 billion yuan in April, a year-on-year increase of nearly 100% [3]. Recommended Investment Lines - **Main Line One**: Focus on large-scale construction materials with improving supply-demand dynamics, emphasizing price elasticity and high dividend yields [5]. - **Main Line Two**: Favorable outlook on leading consumer building material companies with long-term growth potential, highlighting performance elasticity in high-demand consumer segments [7]. - **Main Line Three**: Interest in companies transitioning or expanding into high-growth sectors such as semiconductors, AI, and robotics [7]. Recommended Companies - **Cement Companies**: Conch Cement, Huaxin Cement, China Jushi, TPI Cement, Shangfeng Cement, Changhai Co. [6]. - **Consumer Building Materials**: Sankeshu, Oriental Yuhong, Beixin Building Materials, Weixing New Materials, Tubao, with a focus on Jianlang Hardware, Qinglong Pipeline, and Longquan Co. [7]. - **High-Growth Companies**: Quartz Co., Planet Graphite, with attention to Zhongqi New Materials [8]. Risk Factors - Potential risks include demand falling short of expectations, gross margins not meeting forecasts, and delays in receivables [8].

Investment Rating - The report highlights a positive outlook on Chinese companies deeply engaged in Africa, suggesting potential revaluation opportunities for these firms [13]. Core Insights - Africa is emerging as a popular region for overseas expansion, with significant growth potential in East African countries such as Tanzania, Kenya, Rwanda, and Zambia, which are expected to see GDP growth rates of 5.44%, 4.51%, 8.89%, and 4.04% respectively in 2024 [13][14]. - The report emphasizes the importance of local integration and operational capabilities for companies looking to expand in Africa, distinguishing between "going abroad" and "exporting" [13]. - The approval of Han Gao Group's IPO is noted, with projected revenue growth of 17.04% to 26.77% for the first half of 2025, indicating a strong market position in the home hardware and outdoor furniture sector [14]. Summary by Sections Weekly Discussion - East Africa is gaining attention for its economic stability and growth potential, with several Chinese companies actively establishing operations in the region [13]. - Key sectors for investment include infrastructure, building materials, mining, and consumer goods, with specific examples of companies like Keda Manufacturing and China National Materials [13]. Cyclical Linkage - The report provides insights into the construction materials market, noting a 27 CNY/t year-on-year increase in cement prices, while glass prices have seen a slight decline [15]. - It suggests a cautious outlook for the steel market due to weak demand compared to the previous year [15]. National Subsidy Tracking - The Chinese government has allocated 810 billion CNY in special bonds to support consumer goods, with local subsidy programs being implemented to stimulate demand in home renovation and construction materials [16]. Important Changes - Notable management share purchases were reported for Huaxin Cement, indicating confidence in the company's future performance [17]. - North New Building Materials announced a stock incentive plan, reflecting strategic growth initiatives [17].

过去四个交易日（0506-0509 ）沪深 300 涨 2.00% ，建材（中信）涨 2.83%，其他专用材料、其他结构材料等子行业涨幅居前。个股中，金刚光 伏（+31.1% ），豪美新材（+19.3% ），北京利尔（+17.4% ），四通股份 （+16.3%），华立股份（+14.0%），涨幅居前。上周我们重点推荐组合的表 现：中材科技（+5.8%）、 三棵树(-1.5%)、西部水泥（-5.1%）、华新水泥 （+1.2%）、华润建材科技（+0.6%）、高争民爆(+2.4%)。 行业报告 | 行业研究周报 建筑材料 证券研究报告 政策协同发力，基本面有望逐步恢复，关注民爆机会 行情回顾 中材科技、高争民爆、三棵树、西部水泥、华新水泥、华润建材科技 政策协同发力，基本面有望逐步恢复，关注民爆机会 据 Wind，0503-0509 一周，30 个大中城市商品房销售面积 137.28 万平 米，同比+13.95%。上周国新办举行新闻发布会，会上一行两局宣布降准、 降息及稳楼市等措施，其中包括降准 0.5 个百分点、下调政策利率 0.1 个 百分点及降低个人住房公积金贷款利率 0.25 个百分点等。此前我们在周报 中曾 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [10]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.66 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 2%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 7% to 275 million yuan, and the net profit after deducting non-recurring items fell by 13% to 245 million yuan [2][6]. - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 760 million yuan, which is a 23% increase year-on-year and a 12% increase quarter-on-quarter. The net profit attributable to shareholders surged by 787% year-on-year to 72 million yuan, although it decreased by 10% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit after deducting non-recurring items increased by 303% year-on-year to 63 million yuan, with a 4% decrease quarter-on-quarter [2][6]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 760 million yuan, marking a 31% year-on-year increase and a 1% quarter-on-quarter increase. The net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 62% year-on-year to 82 million yuan, with a 14% quarter-on-quarter increase. The net profit after deducting non-recurring items increased by 93% year-on-year to 87 million yuan, with a 39% quarter-on-quarter increase [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s total revenue for 2024 was 2.66 billion yuan, with a slight year-on-year growth of 2%. The revenue from fiberglass and its products was 1.97 billion yuan, up 3% year-on-year, while chemical products revenue was 650 million yuan, up 1% year-on-year. The total fiberglass sales volume reached approximately 301,000 tons, a 10% increase year-on-year [14]. - The average price for fiberglass was approximately 6,539 yuan per ton, down about 434 yuan per ton year-on-year. The cost per ton remained stable at around 4,970 yuan, down about 71 yuan year-on-year, resulting in a gross margin of approximately 24%, a decrease of 3.7 percentage points year-on-year [14]. - The company’s overall net profit margin for 2024 was approximately 10.3%, down 1.0 percentage point year-on-year [14]. Production Capacity and Market Dynamics - The company experienced significant growth in production capacity and sales in Q4 2024, with new kiln lines contributing to increased output. However, the newly commissioned kilns affected profitability due to unstable initial performance and lower sales prices for certain products [14]. - In Q1 2025, the company continued to see high growth in sales, with improved profitability as the new kiln lines began to stabilize. The overall gross margin for Q1 was approximately 22.6%, reflecting a 1.5 percentage point increase quarter-on-quarter [14]. - The company anticipates that the proportion of yarn products will increase following the new kiln lines' commissioning, which may impact overall net profit per ton in the short term but is expected to improve as product lines expand [14].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the trend of "anti-involution" in various industries as reflected in the capital expenditure to depreciation ratio, indicating a shift towards more conservative investment strategies in response to market conditions [1]. Group 1: Lithium Battery Industry - The lithium battery industry has seen a significant reduction in the capital expenditure to depreciation ratio, dropping from 5.17 in 2022 to 2.37 in 2023, and further to a historical low of 1.77 in 2024, indicating a controlled expansion of capacity [1][2]. - In Q1 2025, major companies like CATL reported a 6.19% revenue growth, while EVE Energy experienced a 37.34% increase, confirming the industry's recovery [2]. Group 2: Silicon Material and Wafer Industry - The silicon material and wafer industry has drastically reduced its capital expenditure to depreciation ratio from 4.1 in 2023 to 1.94 in 2024, marking a historical low due to significant losses [4][5]. - Leading company Tongwei Co. reported an 18.58% revenue decline in Q1 2025, with a negative gross margin of -2.88%, indicating ongoing challenges in the industry [5]. Group 3: Special Steel Industry - The special steel industry saw its capital expenditure to depreciation ratio decrease from 0.93 in 2023 to 0.57 in 2024, suggesting a contraction in capacity but still maintaining profitability among major players [7]. - In 2024, China imported 2.555 million tons of special steel, valued at $5.248 billion, highlighting ongoing demand in high-end steel products [7]. Group 4: Organic Silicon Industry - The organic silicon industry experienced a decline in its capital expenditure to depreciation ratio from 6.98 in 2023 to 1.76 in 2024, indicating a slowdown in capacity expansion [10]. - In Q1 2025, leading company Hoshine Silicon reported a gross margin drop to 14.62%, the lowest in its history, reflecting the industry's ongoing struggles [10]. Group 5: Titanium Dioxide Industry - The titanium dioxide industry faced low prices in 2024, with a capital expenditure to depreciation ratio of 0.78, indicating a contraction in capacity [12]. - Leading company Longbai Group showed signs of stabilization in Q1 2025, with a slight recovery in gross margin, although demand remains uncertain due to external factors [12]. Group 6: Coking Industry - The coking industry is experiencing significant challenges, with a capital expenditure to depreciation ratio of 1.18 in 2024, despite being at a historical low price point [16]. - Leading company Shanxi Coking has reported negative gross margins for ten consecutive quarters, indicating persistent difficulties in the sector [16]. Group 7: Glass Fiber Industry - The glass fiber industry reported a capital expenditure to depreciation ratio of 1.45 in 2024, down from 2.3 in the previous year, suggesting a nearing of historical lows [17]. - Major player China Jushi saw a substantial increase in revenue and net profit in Q1 2025, indicating a clear recovery trend [17]. Group 8: Inorganic Salt Industry - The inorganic salt industry faced continuous price declines, with a capital expenditure to depreciation ratio of 1.06 in 2024, indicating a contraction in capacity [21]. - Leading company Sinochem International reported a gross margin of 9.48% in Q1 2025, the lowest since its listing, reflecting ongoing challenges [21]. Group 9: Inverter Industry - The inverter industry has seen a significant drop in its capital expenditure to depreciation ratio from previous years, now at 4.43 in 2024, indicating a slowdown in expansion [23]. - The industry is experiencing a divergence, with leading companies like Sungrow continuing to perform well, while smaller firms face losses [23].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [10] Core Viewpoints - The sales decline of the top 100 real estate companies has stabilized, with a year-on-year sales amount decrease of 7.8% and a sales area decrease of 18.9% from January to April 2025, showing a significant narrowing compared to the previous year [5][6] - Cement prices continue to decline, while prices for fiberglass from small and medium enterprises are loosening [5][6] - Recommendations include focusing on the African supply chain and computing power chain, with leading companies in existing markets being the main focus for the year [8][9] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In April 2025, the year-on-year sales amount for the top 100 real estate companies decreased by 10.3%, and the sales area decreased by 18.3%, showing slight improvement compared to the previous month [5][6] - The sales amount in April decreased by 12.4% month-on-month, which is better than 2024 but weaker than the average from 2018 to 2024 [5] Cement Market - As of late April, domestic cement market demand has slightly improved, with a national shipment rate of 49.3%, up by approximately 2.1 percentage points month-on-month but down by 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [6][23] - The national average cement price is 391.94 yuan/ton, down by 3.06 yuan/ton month-on-month but up by 27.74 yuan/ton year-on-year [24] Glass Market - The domestic float glass market is experiencing weak transactions, with limited price adjustments and general market demand [7][34] - The national average glass price is 75.13 yuan/weight box, up by 0.06 yuan/weight box month-on-month but down by 17.23 yuan/weight box year-on-year [37] Fiberglass Market - The market for non-alkali roving has seen price loosening among some small and medium enterprises, with overall trading activity declining [42] - The electronic yarn market prices have remained stable, with downstream purchasing being demand-driven [42] Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the African supply chain, particularly highlighting Keda Manufacturing as a leading local player with advantages in production, channels, and brand [8] - In the computing power chain, Zhongcai Technology is recommended as a leading domestic special fiberglass cloth manufacturer benefiting from domestic substitution [8][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the building materials industry [1] Core Views - The short-term economic downturn is causing the real estate chain to hover at the bottom, but the overall direction remains positive with expectations for recovery in the home improvement sector by Q3 2025 [3][4] - The cement market is experiencing a slight price decline, with a national average price of 387.7 RMB/ton, down 3.2 RMB/ton from last week, but up 29.7 RMB/ton year-on-year [3][19] - The report highlights the potential for recovery in demand for building materials, driven by government policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market and boosting domestic consumption [15] Summary by Sections 1. Sector Overview - The building materials sector saw a decline of 2.14% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which fell by 0.43% [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of low-valuation leading companies and expansion-oriented firms, recommending companies like Beixin Building Materials and SanKeTree [3][4] 2. Bulk Building Materials Fundamentals and High-Frequency Data 2.1 Cement - The national cement market price has decreased by 0.8% this week, with regional price fluctuations observed [18] - The average cement inventory level is at 61.7%, down 0.1 percentage points from last week, while the average shipment rate is 49.5%, up 2.1 percentage points week-on-week [27] - The report anticipates a weak and fluctuating price trend in the near future due to weak market demand [18][19] 2.2 Glass Fiber - The glass fiber industry is expected to see a gradual recovery in profitability, with demand in wind power and thermoplastics continuing to grow [12] - The report notes that leading companies are likely to benefit from structural advantages in product offerings [12] 2.3 Glass - The glass industry is currently facing a weak balance between supply and demand, with slow inventory depletion [13] - The report suggests that the profitability of the glass sector remains at a low point, but may improve with supply adjustments [14] 3. Industry Dynamics Tracking - The report discusses the impact of external uncertainties such as tariffs and trade tensions, which are expected to enhance domestic demand expectations [15] - It highlights the government's commitment to stabilizing the real estate market and the anticipated positive effects of new policies on home improvement consumption [15] 4. Weekly Market Review - The report provides a detailed analysis of price changes in the cement market, with specific regional price movements noted [20] - It also includes a summary of the performance of various companies within the building materials sector, emphasizing the potential for valuation recovery [16][17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the building materials industry [1] Core Views - The short-term economic downturn is causing the real estate chain to hover at the bottom, but the overall direction remains positive with expectations for recovery in the home improvement sector by Q3 2025 [3][4] - The cement market is experiencing a slight price decline, with the national average price at 387.7 RMB/ton, down 3.2 RMB/ton from last week but up 29.7 RMB/ton year-on-year [3][19] - The report highlights the potential for recovery in demand for building materials, driven by government policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market and boosting domestic consumption [15] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The building materials sector saw a decline of 2.14% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which fell by 0.43% [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of low-valuation leading companies and expansion-oriented firms as key investment targets [3][4] 2. Bulk Building Materials Fundamentals and High-Frequency Data 2.1 Cement - The national cement market price has decreased by 0.8% this week, with regional variations noted [18] - The average cement inventory level is at 61.7%, down 0.1 percentage points from last week [27] - The report anticipates a weak but stable price trend moving forward due to ongoing supply-demand adjustments [4][18] 2.2 Glass Fiber - The glass fiber industry is expected to see a gradual recovery in profitability, with demand from wind power and thermoplastics sectors continuing to grow [12] - The report suggests that leading companies may benefit from structural advantages and cost efficiencies [12] 2.3 Glass - The glass industry is currently facing a weak balance between supply and demand, with slow inventory depletion [13] - The report indicates that rising costs from petroleum coke may impact profitability, but leading companies are expected to maintain competitive advantages [14] 3. Industry Dynamics Tracking - The report notes that government policies are increasingly focused on stimulating domestic demand and stabilizing the real estate market, which is expected to positively impact the building materials sector [15] - The anticipated implementation of "old-for-new" policies in 2025 is expected to further boost demand for home improvement materials [15] 4. Weekly Market Review - The report provides a detailed analysis of price changes in the cement market, highlighting significant regional differences [20] - It also includes a summary of the performance of various building materials companies, emphasizing those with strong growth potential and competitive advantages [16][17]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview Chemical Industry - In 2024, the chemical sector's revenue decreased by 2.7% year-on-year, with net profit down by 4.3%, but showed a significant quarter-on-quarter growth of 180% [1][4] - Sub-sectors performing well include tires and synthetic leather, while potassium fertilizer and oil trading faced challenges [1][4] - In Q1 2025, growth was observed in fiberglass, modified plastics, and potassium fertilizer, while soda ash, petrochemicals, and polyurethane remained under pressure [1][5] - Key factors affecting the tire sector include raw material price fluctuations and overseas tariff risks [6] Power Industry - In 2024, electricity consumption growth was relatively high, with a 6.7% increase, but Q1 2025 saw limited impact from temperature changes [11] - Thermal power profitability improved due to declining coal prices, although profits remained stable due to electricity price and consumption limits [11][13] - Wind power generation increased by 15.7% in 2024, but utilization hours decreased; solar power competitiveness significantly improved with a 45.3% year-on-year growth in Q1 2025 [14] - Recommendations include focusing on leading companies in renewable energy such as China Yangtze Power and Longyuan Power [1][22] Real Estate Industry - The real estate sector is in a contraction phase, with many companies experiencing declines in cash short-term debt ratios and net debt ratios [24] - Central and state-owned enterprises hold a significant share of net profits, but most real estate companies saw declines in net profits [25] - There is potential for recovery in housing transaction volumes, particularly in first-tier and some second-tier cities, with recommendations for improvement-oriented companies like Binjiang Group and Greentown China [28] Transportation Industry - The transportation sector saw revenue and net profit growth in 2024, driven by increases in shipping, aviation, and express delivery [29] - The express delivery sector experienced a significant volume increase of 21.5% in 2024, with continued growth of 21.6% in Q1 2025, despite ongoing price competition [30] - The aviation sector showed a notable profit increase in 2024, but Q1 2025 saw a return to losses, with significant performance from Huaxia Airlines [31] Non-ferrous Metals - In Q1 2025, the copper sector's revenue decreased by 7.8%, but net profit increased by 22% quarter-on-quarter [36] - The aluminum sector faced a revenue decline, but profits improved due to falling prices of alumina [36] - Investment recommendations focus on defensive strategies, prioritizing precious and energy metals [36] Key Insights - The chemical sector is experiencing mixed performance across sub-sectors, with a focus on raw material costs and demand fluctuations [1][6] - The power industry is transitioning towards renewable energy, with significant growth in solar and wind sectors [14][22] - The real estate market is stabilizing, with potential recovery in specific urban areas, highlighting the importance of cash flow management [24][28] - The transportation sector is benefiting from increased demand, particularly in express delivery, despite competitive pricing pressures [30][32] - Non-ferrous metals are facing challenges from tariffs and supply-demand imbalances, with a cautious investment outlook [36]