【冠通期货研究报告】 沥青日报：震荡运行 发布日期：2025年12月23日 【行情分析】 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回落0.2个百分点至27.6%，较去年同期低了0.9个百分点，仍处于 近年同期最低水平。据隆众资讯数据，12月份国内沥青预计排产215.8万吨，环比减少7.0万吨，减幅 为3.1%，同比减少34.4万吨，减幅为13.8%。上周，沥青下游各行业开工率多数下跌，其中道路沥青 开工环比下跌3个百分点至24%，受到资金和天气制约。上周，华东地区主营炼厂间歇停产，加之价 格高位，其出货量减少较多，全国出货量环比减少3.52%至24.45万吨，处于中性水平。沥青炼厂库存 存货比环比小幅下降，仍处于近年来同期的最低位附近。由于美国财政部宣布对委内瑞拉实施新的 制裁措施，其中包括运输委内瑞拉石油的公司和船只，特朗普下令对进出委内瑞拉的受制裁油轮实 施全面封锁。委内瑞拉主要石油储存设施及码头停泊的油轮正在迅速装满原油，预计在数日后达到 最大储存上限。美国在委内瑞拉附近水域拦截第三艘油轮。市场担忧委内瑞拉重质原油的出口，影 响国内沥青的生产，委内瑞拉稀释沥青贴水幅度缩小。本周山东部分炼厂有转产渣油计划。北方道 路施 ...

Group 1: Chemical Sector Performance - The chemical raw materials index increased by 1.62%, while the chemical machinery index decreased by 0.96%, the chemical pharmaceuticals index fell by 1.69%, and the pesticide and fertilizer index rose by 4.21% [1] - The top five rising petrochemical products included folic acid up by 20%, battery-grade lithium carbonate up by 11.08%, nitric acid up by 10.43%, sulfur up by 9.95%, and petroleum coke up by 7.23% [1] - The top five declining petrochemical products were liquid chlorine down by 34%, butadiene down by 7.69%, 2,4-D down by 6.09%, trichloroethylene down by 6.00%, and SBS down by 5.90% [1] Group 2: Oil Sector Performance - The oil processing index rose by 1.39%, while the oil extraction index fell by 0.22%, and the oil trading index increased by 3.44% [1] - International crude oil prices continued to decline, with West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures settling at $56.66 per barrel, down 1.36% from December 12, and Brent crude oil futures settling at $60.47 per barrel, down 1.06% from December 12 [1] Group 3: Capital Market Performance of Listed Chemical Companies - The top five rising listed chemical companies included Sulihua Co., Ltd. up by 30.69%, Xinri Hengli up by 27.48%, Reborn Technology up by 23.25%, Ruihua Tai up by 20.93%, and Shenjian Co., Ltd. up by 20.50% [2] - The top five declining listed chemical companies were Huarong Chemical down by 20.01%, Enjie Co., Ltd. down by 18.36%, Weike Technology down by 13.15%, Jinbantai down by 12.83%, and Xingye Co., Ltd. down by 12.63% [2]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The announcement details the share pledge situation of Hengli Petrochemical Co., Ltd., indicating that the controlling shareholder, Hengli Group, and its concerted parties hold a significant portion of shares, with a notable amount pledged for liquidity purposes [1][3]. Share Pledge Situation - Hengli Group and its concerted parties currently hold a total of 5,310,675,080 shares, representing 75.45% of the company, with 1,686,200,000 shares pledged, accounting for 31.75% of their holdings and 23.95% of the total share capital [1][3]. - Hengneng Investment holds 1,498,478,926 shares, which is 21.29% of the company, with 578,200,000 shares pledged, making up 38.59% of its holdings and 8.21% of the total share capital [1][3]. Purpose and Impact of Pledge - The shares pledged by Hengneng Investment are intended to supplement liquidity, with the main debt obligation maturing on January 22, 2027 [1][2]. - The pledged shares are not used for restructuring performance compensation or other guarantees, indicating a focused purpose for the pledge [2]. - Hengneng Investment is reported to have a good credit status and repayment capability, suggesting that the pledge risk is manageable and will not lead to a change in actual control of the company [3].

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in international oil prices have led to a reduction in domestic gasoline and diesel prices in China, effective from December 22 at 24:00, with gasoline prices decreasing by 170 yuan per ton and diesel prices by 165 yuan per ton [1]. Price Adjustments - The adjustment in fuel prices is based on the comparison of the average prices from the first ten working days of December with the previous adjustment period [1]. - The new maximum retail prices for gasoline and diesel across various provinces and municipalities are detailed in the accompanying table [2]. Market Regulation - Major oil companies, including PetroChina, Sinopec, and CNOOC, along with other oil processing enterprises, are required to ensure stable supply and adhere to national pricing policies [1]. - Local authorities are tasked with increasing market supervision and strictly enforcing compliance with national pricing regulations to maintain normal market order [1]. - Consumers are encouraged to report any violations of pricing laws through the 12315 platform [1].

近期国际市场油价波动运行，根据12月22日的前10个工作日平均价格与上次调价前10个工作日平均价格对比情况，按照现行成品油价格机制，自12月22日24时起， 国内汽、柴油价格（标准品，下同）每吨分别降低170元和165元。调整后，各省（区、市）和中心城市汽、柴油最高零售价格见附表。 中石油、中石化、中海油三大公司及其他原油加工企业要组织好成品油生产和调运，确保市场稳定供应，严格执行国家价格政策。各地相关部门要加大市场监督检 查力度，严厉查处不执行国家价格政策的行为，维护正常市场秩序。消费者可通过12315平台举报价格违法行为。 附：各省区市和中心城市汽、柴油最高零售价格 | | 汽油(标准品) | 柴油(标准品) | | --- | --- | --- | | 一、实行一省一价的地区 | | | | 北京市 | 8350 | 7365 | | 天津市 | 8315 | 7330 | | 河北省 | 8315 | 7330 | | 山西省 | 8385 | 7385 | | 辽宁省 | 8315 | 7330 | | 吉林省 | 8315 | 7330 | | 黑龙江省 | 8315 | 7330 | | 上海 ...

Core Viewpoint - The final adjustment of refined oil prices for the year will take place tonight, with significant reductions in retail prices for gasoline and diesel, reflecting ongoing trends in international crude oil prices [1][4]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a reduction of 170 yuan per ton for gasoline and 165 yuan per ton for diesel, translating to a decrease of 0.13 yuan for 92 gasoline, 0.14 yuan for 95 gasoline, and 0.14 yuan for 0 diesel [1]. - In 2025, there were a total of 25 rounds of retail price adjustments, with 7 increases, 12 decreases, and 6 instances of no change, resulting in a cumulative reduction of 915 yuan per ton for gasoline and 880 yuan per ton for diesel [1]. Group 2: Impact on Consumers - This marks the 12th reduction in domestic retail prices this year, leading to lower commuting and travel costs for the public [2]. - For a private car filling up 50L of 92 gasoline, the cost will decrease by approximately 6.5 yuan, while a vehicle running 2000 kilometers per month will see a fuel cost reduction of about 10 yuan [2]. Group 3: Market Analysis - Analysts indicate that the primary reason for the price drop is the decline in international crude oil prices, influenced by improved prospects for peace in Europe and concerns over supply surplus [4]. - Despite a slight increase in crude prices towards the end of the adjustment window, the overall trend remains downward, with expectations of continued low prices in the near future [4]. - As the New Year holiday approaches, there is an anticipated increase in downstream demand, which may provide some support for prices and transactions [4].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate. The supply is affected by the开工 rate decline and potential production transfer, and the demand shows differences between the north and the south. There are also concerns about the supply of Venezuelan heavy - crude oil, which may impact domestic asphalt production [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - **Supply Side**: Last week, the asphalt开工 rate dropped 0.2 percentage points to 27.6%, 0.9 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a multi - year low. In December, the domestic asphalt planned production is 2.158 million tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons (3.1%) month - on - month and 344,000 tons (13.8%) year - on - year. Some Shandong refineries plan to switch to producing residue oil this week [3]. - **Demand Side**: As of the week ending December 19th, most downstream asphalt industries'开工 rates declined. Road asphalt开工 rate dropped 3 percentage points to 24% due to funding and weather. From January to October, the national highway construction investment decreased 6.0% year - on - year. From January to November, the fixed - asset investment in road transport decreased 4.7% year - on - year, and infrastructure construction investment (excluding electricity) decreased 1.1% year - on - year. Northern road construction is ending, with subsequent rigid demand slowing down, but winter - storage demand is emerging. Southern demand is average, and southern refineries have cut prices [3][29]. - **Inventory**: As of the week ending December 19th, the asphalt refinery inventory - to - stock ratio dropped 0.2 percentage points to 13.2% week - on - week, near the multi - year low [34]. - **Price and Basis**: The asphalt/原油 ratio rose to 6.82. The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 2,910 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 02 contract rose to 1 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [11][14]. - **Shipping Volume**: As of the week ending December 19th, due to intermittent shutdowns of major refineries in East China and high prices, the national shipping volume decreased 3.52% week - on - week to 244,500 tons, at a neutral level [24].

Core Viewpoint - Domestic fuel prices in China are set to decrease again, with gasoline and diesel prices reduced by 170 yuan and 165 yuan per ton respectively, effective from December 22, 2023 [1][4]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced a reduction in fuel prices based on the average price comparison over the last ten working days [1]. - The price adjustments translate to a decrease of 0.13 yuan per liter for 92 gasoline, 0.14 yuan per liter for 95 gasoline, and 0.14 yuan per liter for 0 diesel [4]. - Consumers filling a 50L tank of 92 gasoline will save approximately 6.5 yuan, while the fuel cost for a vehicle running 2000 kilometers per month will decrease by around 10 yuan before the next price adjustment [4]. Group 2: Annual Price Trends - In 2023, there were 25 rounds of retail price adjustments for refined oil, including 7 increases, 12 decreases, and 6 instances of no change [5]. - Cumulatively, gasoline prices have decreased by 915 yuan per ton, equating to a reduction of 0.72 yuan per liter for 92 gasoline and 0.76 yuan per liter for 95 gasoline [5]. - Diesel prices have seen a total reduction of 880 yuan per ton, resulting in a decrease of 0.75 yuan per liter for 0 diesel [5]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The market is closely monitoring the ongoing peace negotiations in Europe, which may influence future oil prices [7]. - Despite recent small increases in oil prices, the overall trend remains downward due to concerns over supply surplus and geopolitical tensions [5][7]. - The recalculated oil price change rate remains negative, indicating limited upward movement potential for oil prices in the near term [7].

Core Viewpoint - Domestic fuel prices in China have been reduced again, with gasoline and diesel prices decreasing by 170 yuan and 165 yuan per ton respectively, effective from December 22, 2023 [1]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - The price adjustments translate to a reduction of 0.13 yuan per liter for 92 gasoline, 0.14 yuan per liter for 95 gasoline, and 0.14 yuan per liter for 0 diesel [4]. - Filling a 50L tank of 92 gasoline will save consumers approximately 6.5 yuan [4]. - For a vehicle running 2,000 kilometers per month with an average fuel consumption of 8L per 100 kilometers, the fuel cost will decrease by around 10 yuan before the next price adjustment [4]. Group 2: Market Impact - The logistics industry will see a significant impact, with a heavy-duty truck running 10,000 kilometers per month and consuming 38L per 100 kilometers experiencing a fuel cost reduction of about 266 yuan before the next price adjustment [4]. - In 2023, there were a total of 25 rounds of retail price adjustments for domestic fuel, including 7 increases, 12 decreases, and 6 instances of no change [4]. Group 3: International Oil Prices - The recent price adjustments are influenced by a downward trend in international crude oil prices, primarily due to improved prospects for peace negotiations in Europe, which overshadowed concerns about supply disruptions from South America [5]. - Despite a slight increase in crude oil prices towards the end of the adjustment window, the overall downward trend remained unaltered [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Market analysts, such as Zhaochuang Information, suggest that attention will remain on European peace negotiations for further guidance, while potential increases in U.S. sanctions may provide some support for crude oil prices [7]. - The recalculated crude oil change rate remains negative, indicating limited upward potential for oil prices in the near term [7].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the adjustment of domestic refined oil prices in China, effective from December 22, 2025, where gasoline and diesel prices will be reduced by 170 yuan and 165 yuan per ton respectively [1] - The adjustment is based on the comparison of the average prices over the last ten working days with the previous adjustment period [1] - Major oil companies, including PetroChina, Sinopec, and CNOOC, are required to ensure stable supply and compliance with national pricing policies [1] Group 2 - Local authorities are tasked with increasing market supervision and strictly enforcing national price policies to maintain normal market order [1] - Consumers are encouraged to report price violations through the 12315 platform [1]