2025年06月12日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 铜：库存减少，限制价格回落 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 铝：关注中美谈判进展 | 5 | | 氧化铝：偏弱运行 | 5 | | 锌：短期震荡，关注库存 | 7 | | 铅：区间震荡 | 8 | | 锡：止跌回升 | 9 | | 镍：现实支撑与弱势预期博弈，镍价震荡运行 | 11 | | 不锈钢：负反馈传导减产增加，钢价区间震荡 | 11 | | 碳酸锂：宏观预期反复，基本面仍偏弱 | 13 | | 工业硅：基本面弱势，上方空间有限 | 15 | | 多晶硅：现货弱势，盘面具下行驱动 | 15 | | 铁矿石：预期反复，区间震荡 | 17 | | 螺纹钢：宏观情绪扰动，宽幅震荡 | 18 | | 热轧卷板：宏观情绪扰动，宽幅震荡 | 18 | | 硅铁：主产地区减产仍存，宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 锰硅：海外矿企报价下移，偏弱震荡 | 20 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 焦煤：安检趋于严格，宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 动力煤：需求仍待释放，宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 25 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | ...

随着欧盟 CBAM 落地，拥有绿电的企业将具备定价权及市场准入权，中 孚实业深度布局绿电铝，展现出强大的资源与成本优势，有望实现跨越 式增长。 Q&A 为什么在当前时点看好中孚实业？ 中孚实业 20250611 从行业层面来看，今年铝价在进入淡季后仍然坚挺，价格维持在 2 万元以上， 并且随着近期铝价的下行，整个行业的盈利水平逐步扩张。尽管市场担心光伏 排产下修对铝价的影响，但从 5 月底以来，铝价依然稳定，库存保持极低位， 这表明压力测试已经经历过。尤其是在旺季转淡季期间，这种压力测试矫正了 之前的预期，使得整个铝板块被低估，包括中孚实业。 从公司层面来看，中孚 实业自 1993 年成立以来，通过破局重启和收购少数股东电解铝股权，目前已 达到绿电 50 万吨、火电 25 万吨的布局。四川水电铝布局具有成本优势，下游 配套加工有望受益于欧盟碳边境调节机制落地后的绿色认证。此外，公司经营 获利显著提升，员工持股计划激发管理和经营活力，以及分红比例大幅提升， 都为公司价值重估提供了良好基础。因此，我们非常看好中孚实业未来的发展 前景及上涨空间。 摘要 铝价稳定且库存低位表明市场已通过压力测试，旺季转淡季期间的调整 ...

Core Viewpoint - The launch of casting aluminum alloy futures and options on June 10 marks the first recycled metal commodity in China's futures market, with strong initial trading performance and participation from leading aluminum companies [1][2][3]. Market Performance - On the first trading day, all seven contracts for casting aluminum alloy futures closed higher, with the main contract AD2511 opening at 19,400 yuan/ton and closing at 19,190 yuan/ton, a rise of 825 yuan/ton or 4.49% from the listing benchmark price of 18,365 yuan/ton [3][4]. - The total trading volume for the seven contracts reached 57,300 lots, with a transaction value of 11.011 billion yuan, and the main contract AD2511 accounted for 52,300 lots and 10.1 billion yuan in transaction value [3][4]. Industry Participation - Major aluminum companies such as Shunbo Alloy, Lichong Group, and Judong Co. actively participated in the trading on the first day, indicating strong industry interest [1][6][8]. - The recycled aluminum alloy industry is primarily composed of private enterprises, with a market concentration of about 30% among the top five companies [7]. Price Dynamics and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the initial price performance aligns with expectations, but caution that the market may experience significant price fluctuations due to seasonal demand changes and supply dynamics [4][5]. - The industry faces challenges such as overcapacity and low profit margins, with a projected operating rate of only 53% in 2024, which may limit future price increases [4][5]. Impact on Related Companies - The launch of casting aluminum alloy futures has positively impacted stock prices of related companies, with Shunbo Alloy rising by 10.01% and Lichong Group by 7.60% as of June 11 [8]. - Shunbo Alloy's projected revenue for 2024 is 13.977 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17%, although its net profit is expected to decrease by 47.96% [8]. Strategic Importance - The introduction of these futures is expected to enhance risk management for industry players, providing a more effective hedging tool compared to existing aluminum futures [8][9]. - The futures market is anticipated to play a significant role in the pricing mechanism for aluminum alloys, contributing to a more transparent and fair market environment [8][9][10].

金十数据6月11日讯，港股今日早盘高开高走，尾盘升幅显著收窄。港股今早靠稳，恒指高开28点报 24191点，大市有明显买盘支持，一度涨252点报24414点，再创3月20日后近三个月高位；午后升幅接 续，稍为扩大至271点报24434点，但临近尾盘升幅显著收窄。截至收盘，恒指收涨0.84%；科指收涨 1.09%，恒指大市成交额2351.7亿元。盘面上，玩具、出版、锂电池股走强，中资券商股、内险股受追 捧，光伏及铝业股拉升，汽车股造好；军工、半导体、影视股走低，生物医药股回调。个股方面，中国 稀土(00769.HK)涨超18%，泡泡玛特(09992.HK)涨超4.2%再创历史新高，哔哩哔哩(09626.HK)涨近 10%；康师傅控股(00322.HK)跌超3.5%，石药集团(01093.HK)跌超5.7%，农夫山泉(09633.HK)跌超2%。 港股收评：恒指收涨0.84% 汽车股造好 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the launch of casting aluminum alloy futures and options on the Shanghai Futures Exchange marks a significant development in the aluminum industry, enhancing price discovery and risk management capabilities for industry players [2]. - On June 11, the main contract for casting aluminum alloy futures closed at 19,318 yuan/ton, up 0.78% from the previous day's closing price, with a trading volume of 18,700 contracts and an open interest of 10,600 contracts [1]. - The first day of trading on June 10 saw the main contract close at 19,190 yuan/ton, an increase of 825 yuan/ton or 4.49% from the listing benchmark price of 18,365 yuan/ton, with total trading volume of 57,300 contracts and a transaction value of 11.011 billion yuan [1]. Group 2 - China has established a complete aluminum industry chain from bauxite to aluminum applications, and the introduction of casting aluminum alloy futures and options is expected to create a standardized, transparent, and efficient pricing mechanism [2]. - The new futures and options are anticipated to synergize with existing alumina and electrolytic aluminum futures and options on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, significantly contributing to the risk management capabilities of aluminum industry enterprises and promoting green, low-carbon, and high-quality development [2].

点击蓝字，关注我们 今日上午港股 5、 新琪安(02573)上市次日回吐逾15% ，公司为食品级甘氨酸及三氯蔗糖生产商； 1、知行科技(01274)涨近5% ，近期获某头部品牌商业物流车平台化定点，机器人构筑第二成长曲 线； 2、稳定币概念继续走高，中国光大控股(00165)涨超5% ；连连数字(02598)涨超3%；众安在线(06060) 涨超2%。 3、光伏股集体上扬 ，SNEC光伏展今日开展，机构称新技术迭代或是行业出清核心驱动因素。 新特 能源(01799)涨超6% ； 协鑫科技(03800)涨超4% ； 福莱特玻璃(06865)涨超2% ； 4、汽车股拉升，比亚迪(01211)、 蔚来(09866) 涨超2% ，车企接连官宣"60天账期"； 8、津上机床中国(01651)早盘涨超5% ，现涨近4%。机床有望受益机器人行业发展，公司或于本月底 发布业绩。 9 、 港股铝业股集体拉升 ，其中， 中国宏桥(1378) 涨超5% 创历史新高， 中国铝业(2600) 涨近3%， 俄铝(0486) 涨2% ， 兴发铝业 、 荣阳实业 跟涨。 10、 保险 股全线上涨， 中国太平(0966) 涨近6%， 中国再保 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-11 新品种上市，铝板块运行平稳 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，昨日长江A00铝价录得20160元/吨，较上一交易日下跌50元/吨，长江A00铝现货升贴 水较上一交易日上涨10元/吨至80元/吨；中原A00铝价录得20100元/吨，中原A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日持 平于10元/吨；佛山A00铝价录20020元/吨，佛山A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日下跌10元/吨至-70元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-06-10日沪铝主力合约开于20075元/吨，收于19980元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价下跌25元/ 吨，跌幅-0.12%，最高价达20100元/吨，最低价达到19925元/吨。全天交易日成交149209手，较上一交易日增 加15980手，全天交易日持仓184305手，较上一交易日增加2633手。 库存方面，截止2025-06-09，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存47.7万吨。截止2025-06-10，LME铝库存359900 吨，较前一交易日减少2100吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-06-10 SMM氧化铝山西价格录得3275元/吨，山东价格录得3260元/吨， ...

美国与墨西哥接近就下调钢铁关税和限制进口达成协议。 墨西哥股指收涨0.48%。 美国钢铁公司（X）收涨1.41%，美股盘后暂无波动；美国铝业（AA）收涨0.67%，盘后也暂无波动。 墨西哥比索兑美元短线从19.06比索一线拉升至19.04比索上方，日内整体转涨。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The launch of casting aluminum alloy futures and options on June 10 marks a significant milestone for China's futures market, enhancing price discovery and risk management capabilities within the aluminum industry [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The first trading day saw a total transaction amount exceeding 11 billion yuan, with all seven contracts closing higher, particularly the main contract AD2511, which rose by 825 yuan/ton, a 4.49% increase from the listing price [2]. - The main contract AD2511 had a trading volume of 52,300 lots, accounting for 101 billion yuan of the total transaction amount, with a closing position of 9,723 lots [2]. Group 2: Industry Participation - Several leading companies in the aluminum industry actively participated in the trading of casting aluminum alloy futures, including Lichong Sijun Light Alloy Group, Chongqing Shunbo Aluminum Alloy Co., and others [4]. - The participation of these companies is crucial for the futures market to effectively perform its price discovery function, as the application of futures tools in the non-ferrous metal industry has become well-established [4]. Group 3: Industry Implications - The launch of casting aluminum alloy futures and options is seen as a key development for the recycling metal industry, contributing to resource security and promoting green and low-carbon transformation [4]. - The introduction of these financial instruments is expected to enhance the international influence of China's aluminum industry and support the establishment of a comprehensive risk management system [4].

Core Viewpoint - The launch of casting aluminum alloy futures and options on the Shanghai Futures Exchange marks a significant step in providing comprehensive risk management services for industry chain enterprises, supporting the green, low-carbon, and high-quality development of the aluminum industry [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The first day of trading for casting aluminum alloy futures saw a total of 57,300 contracts traded, with a transaction value of 11.011 billion yuan, and an open interest of 11,500 contracts [1][2]. - The benchmark price for the first batch of contracts was set at 18,365 yuan/ton, with the main contract opening at 19,400 yuan/ton and closing at 19,190 yuan/ton, reflecting an increase of 825 yuan/ton, or 4.49% from the benchmark price [2][3]. - Analysts noted that the overall performance of the casting aluminum alloy futures on the first day met market expectations, with prices rising across the board [2][3]. Group 2: Industry Participation - A total of nine enterprises actively participated in the trading of casting aluminum alloy futures, including Zhejiang Runjie Trade Development Co., Ltd., and others, indicating strong interest from industry players [4]. - The collaboration between companies like Dongzheng Futures and Zhejiang Runjie has been highlighted as crucial in facilitating the successful trading of the first batch of contracts, with a focus on identifying and managing hedging needs [4][5]. - The active participation of industry clients reflects their recognition of the new product, with futures companies providing essential risk management and investment tools to support these enterprises [5].