Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records focus on the aluminum industry, particularly the impact of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East on aluminum supply and pricing dynamics. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Supply Crisis Due to Geopolitical Tensions** The Middle East conflict has triggered a supply crisis in electrolytic aluminum, with Qatar and Bahrain's aluminum industries declaring force majeure, affecting approximately 3% of global supply and driving aluminum prices to historical highs [1][3]. 2. **Energy and Logistics Constraints** The region's aluminum production capacity of 7 million tons (8.8% of global supply) faces dual constraints from energy and logistics, as electricity is 100% reliant on natural gas, and 90% of exports must pass through the Strait of Hormuz [1][3]. 3. **Rising European Energy Prices** Qatar's LNG disruptions have pushed European gas prices above €50 per megawatt-hour, risking high-cost production cuts for around 600,000 tons of European capacity [1][2]. 4. **Valuation and Profitability** The current valuation of the electrolytic aluminum sector is approximately 10 times PE, at historical lows. If aluminum prices rise from 25,000 to 30,000 yuan per ton, profit per ton could increase by 70%, indicating significant earnings elasticity [1][15]. 5. **Short-term Price Outlook** In the next 1-2 months, aluminum prices are expected to rise, with recommendations to prioritize investments in companies with high energy self-sufficiency and integrated alumina production [1][2]. 6. **Impact of Supply Chain Disruptions** The conflict has led to direct production impacts, transportation disruptions, and external energy pressures, with the potential for further production cuts across the Middle East aluminum sector [3][6]. 7. **Logistics and Export Challenges** The Strait of Hormuz is critical for the region's aluminum supply chain, with 70%-80% of production intended for export. Any blockage would severely impact logistics and inventory management [7][9]. 8. **Raw Material Dependency** The Middle East's electrolytic aluminum industry has a high dependency on imported alumina, with approximately 70% reliance. A blockade could lead to significant production cuts due to raw material shortages [8][9]. 9. **Cost Implications of Geopolitical Tensions** Increased shipping costs due to geopolitical tensions are expected to elevate overall aluminum production costs, further supporting aluminum prices globally [9][10]. 10. **Long-term Supply Dynamics** The electrolytic aluminum supply is expected to remain tight over the next two years, with potential disruptions from ongoing geopolitical conflicts and new projects in Southeast Asia and Africa [12][14]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Market Sentiment on Dividend Increases** There is a strong market expectation for dividend increases, with some companies indicating intentions to raise dividends compared to 2025 levels [20][21]. 2. **Valuation Framework for Stocks** The current valuation framework for aluminum stocks is based on a 10 times PE ratio, with the potential for adjustments based on growth prospects and dividend expectations [22]. 3. **Investment Focus Areas** Investors are advised to focus on companies with high energy self-sufficiency and those that are less sensitive to external cost fluctuations, particularly in the context of rising energy prices [16][19]. 4. **Alumina Price Dynamics** The price of alumina is expected to remain stable due to logistical challenges and potential production cuts, with a significant correlation to the cost of production in the aluminum sector [17][18]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and arguments presented in the conference call records, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the aluminum industry amidst geopolitical tensions.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The price of finished products is expected to move in a sideways consolidation, while the price of aluminum ingots is expected to be strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment [2][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - The production of short - process construction steel enterprises in the Yunnan - Guizhou region during the Spring Festival is expected to affect the total output of construction steel by 741,000 tons, and the daily output of 6 short - process steel mills in Anhui during the shutdown period is about 16,200 tons [3][4] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 40.3% month - on - month and increased by 43.2% year - on - year [4] - The price of finished products continued to decline in shock yesterday, reaching a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is also pessimistic, and the price center of gravity continues to move down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, and the support for prices is not strong [4] - The later focus is on macro - policies and downstream demand [4] Aluminum Ingots - Last week, the aluminum price continued to rise due to geopolitical risks. Trump said that the US is "seriously considering" expanding the scope of strikes, and the Mediterranean Shipping Company will levy an emergency fuel surcharge on relevant goods [3] - Newly invested electrolytic aluminum projects in China, Indonesia, and Angola are still ramping up production, but the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has affected the production or shipment of some aluminum plants, and the daily output is expected to decrease [4] - After the festival, as downstream enterprises resume work, demand has recovered, the proportion of molten aluminum has increased by about 8 percentage points week - on - week, and the weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises has increased by 2.5 percentage points to 59.5% [4] - The inventory of domestic aluminum ingots continued to accumulate. On Monday, the inventory increased by 15,000 tons compared with last Thursday. In March, the ingot casting volume of electrolytic aluminum is expected to remain high, and the short - term inventory accumulation trend will continue [4] - If the geopolitical conflict continues, the global electrolytic aluminum supply is expected to tighten, and the aluminum price has strong upward momentum. The short - term supply is blocked by macro - factors, and the aluminum price is expected to be strong. The follow - up evolution of macro - events should be concerned [4] - The later focus is on changes in macro - expectations, the development of geopolitical crises, the resumption of production at the mine end, and the release of consumption [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The impact of external sources on the domestic market is weakening. Downstream demand is weak, and the enthusiasm for high - price inventory is low, with procurement mainly for replenishing rigid - demand stocks. Overall, supply and demand are contracting simultaneously, and cost support is falling from a high level. - In the alumina market, short - term supply - side pressure has been marginally relieved, and the supply - demand relationship has reached a short - term balance, supporting short - term price stability. In the medium to long term, ore supply is abundant, cost support is weakening, and new production capacity plans from March to June will put pressure on prices [3][29][81]. - The core trading logic of electrolytic aluminum prices revolves around the escalation of geopolitical conflicts. The Middle East's aluminum industry is facing challenges, and if the situation worsens, more aluminum plants may cut production. Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong in the short term, but there is a risk of significant price corrections [3][82]. - In the cast aluminum market, the supply of compliant scrap aluminum is tight, and cost support is increasing. The market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and prices are expected to remain strong under the influence of Middle East conflicts, with significant intraday volatility [4][70][83]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Alumina futures prices fluctuated in February, with the center of gravity slightly rising. The main contract price stabilized around 2,800 yuan/ton, with a high of 2,937 yuan/ton and a monthly decline of 0.87% [11]. - Shanghai aluminum futures prices dropped rapidly at the beginning of February and then oscillated in a narrow range. The overseas LME aluminum price also adjusted, and the import loss slightly increased [12]. - Cast aluminum futures briefly exceeded 24,000 yuan/ton in February but then fell. The price mostly oscillated above 22,000 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 0.68% [13]. 3.2 Macro Environment 3.2.1 Overseas - The situation in the Middle East has escalated, with the US conducting military operations in Iran and Iran counter - attacking and blocking the Strait of Hormuz. This has an impact on global inflation and resource products [16]. - The US has adjusted its tariff policies. The Federal Supreme Court made a decision on Trump's tariffs, and Trump re - introduced tariffs, which are expected to prevent a sharp short - term decline in US tariffs [16]. - In terms of employment and inflation, US employment data in January was better than expected, and inflation was lower than expected. However, due to the Middle East conflict, inflation expectations have risen, and the market's expectation of interest rate cuts has weakened [18]. - In the fourth quarter of the US, GDP growth was lower than expected, with a decline in personal consumption expenditure contribution and a negative contribution from government spending [19]. - In Europe, the eurozone's industrial production slowed down, construction output rebounded, and PMI improved across the board. Exports and imports increased year - on - year, and the trade surplus expanded [20]. 3.2.2 Domestic - After the Spring Festival, some industrial product production and prices recovered. The real estate market showed signs of recovery, and foreign trade port throughput and South Korea's export data were strong [21]. - In January, CPI and PPI data were affected by the Spring Festival and base - period rotation. Financial data had a good start, with an increase in social financing scale mainly driven by government bonds [21][22]. 3.3 Alumina Market Analysis 3.3.1 Bauxite - In January, the supply of domestic bauxite was tight, with prices rising slightly in the north and remaining stable in the south. Imported ore supply is expected to increase, but geopolitical issues may affect transportation costs [24][25]. 3.3.2 Alumina Supply - In January, China's alumina production was flat year - on - year, and the supply surplus pattern remained. In February, production cuts were carried out, and imports decreased [25][26]. 3.3.3 Alumina Inventory and Spot - Exchange inventory increased from 182,000 tons at the beginning of February to 310,000 tons at the end of the month. The spot premium narrowed to a small premium of 21 yuan/ton in mid - February [27]. 3.3.4 Alumina Cost and Profit - In January, the average fully - taxed cost of the alumina industry decreased by 89.24 yuan/ton compared with December, a month - on - month decrease of 3.14% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.16% [28]. 3.3.5 Alumina Outlook - Short - term supply - side pressure has been relieved, and prices are expected to stabilize. In the medium to long term, new production capacity will put pressure on prices [29][81]. 3.4 Electrolytic Aluminum Market Analysis 3.4.1 Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - In January, China's primary aluminum production increased year - on - year and month - on - month. In February, production is expected to be about 3.44 million tons. Overseas, there are many production cut news, and the reduction is expected to be greater than the increase in March [42][43]. 3.4.2 Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory - As of March 5, the spot inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased compared with before the Spring Festival. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and LME also changed [44]. 3.4.3 Electrolytic Aluminum Spot - The LME spot premium changed from a large discount to a small premium, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased [45]. 3.4.4 Electrolytic Aluminum Cost and Profit - In February, the theoretical average full cost of China's electrolytic aluminum industry decreased by 88 yuan/ton compared with the previous month, and the monthly theoretical profit increased by 605 yuan/ton [46]. 3.5 Cast Aluminum 3.5.1 Scrap Aluminum - In February, scrap aluminum imports were affected by policies and the Spring Festival. Domestic scrap aluminum production decreased month - on - month, and prices fluctuated after the Spring Festival [65]. 3.5.2 Supply - In February, the production of recycled aluminum alloy decreased. After the Lantern Festival, production gradually recovered, and imports were limited [66]. 3.5.3 Consumption - In January, automobile and motorcycle sales increased year - on - year [67]. 3.5.4 Spot and Inventory - As of March 5, the spot price of ADC12 increased, and the cast aluminum warehouse receipt inventory decreased [68][69]. 3.5.5 Outlook - The cost of cast aluminum is rising, the supply and demand are weak, and prices are expected to remain strong with significant volatility [70][83]. 3.6 Consumption Analysis 3.6.1 Aluminum Processing - In February, aluminum processing was affected by the Spring Festival. In March, with the arrival of the peak season, the industry is expected to recover [75]. 3.6.2 Domestic Terminal Consumption - The real estate market is expected to be stable. Automobile sales were under pressure in January, and the market may adjust in February. The power demand is recovering, and the short - term demand for photovoltaic products is strong [76][77]. 3.6.3 Aluminum Product Exports - Exports are expected to face few obstacles, but the appreciation of the RMB and the Spring Festival may affect exports, and the year - on - year exports from January to February are expected to remain stable [78]. 3.7 Market Outlook - Macroscopically, the Middle East conflict has increased inflation risks, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations have decreased. Domestically, attention should be paid to the policies of the Two Sessions [81]. - Alumina prices are expected to be stable in the short term and under pressure in the medium to long term [81]. - Electrolytic aluminum prices are expected to remain strong in the short term but may correct if the geopolitical situation eases [82]. - Cast aluminum prices are expected to remain strong with significant volatility [83].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the aluminum sector, highlighting the impact of Middle Eastern conflicts on global aluminum supply and price volatility [2][3]. Core Insights - The ongoing conflicts in the Middle East are disrupting the global aluminum supply chain, leading to high price fluctuations in aluminum [3]. - The report indicates that the production capacity of electrolytic aluminum in the Middle East is approximately 6.85 million tons, accounting for 9% of global production, with significant reductions in output due to ongoing conflicts [4]. - Energy cost increases are expected to globalize supply risks, as rising oil and gas prices could lead to higher electricity costs for aluminum production, potentially squeezing profit margins for producers [4][5]. - Despite the geopolitical tensions, the aluminum market fundamentals remain relatively stable, with a tight balance between supply and demand, supported by low global inventories [5][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report discusses the impact of Middle Eastern conflicts on aluminum supply, noting that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could severely restrict trade and affect global supply chains [4]. - The report emphasizes that the current geopolitical situation may lead to long-term supply constraints, not just localized disruptions [11]. 2. Production Data - The report tracks production data, indicating that the average profit for the electrolytic aluminum industry is around 8,100 CNY per ton, with expectations for sustained high profitability in the future [6]. 3. Inventory and Consumption - Global aluminum inventories are reported to be at low levels, with domestic inventories in China experiencing seasonal accumulation but overall maintaining a tight supply situation [5][6]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring downstream consumption and production rates, which are critical for understanding market dynamics [19][48]. 4. Stock Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies within the aluminum sector, such as China Hongqiao and other firms with strong electricity advantages, as potential investment opportunities [12].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [8] Core Insights - In 2025, total aluminum sales are expected to increase by 2% to 2.83 million tons, with net profit projected to grow by 16% to 4.93 billion AED [3][5] - The company achieved a revenue of 31.98 billion AED in 2025, reflecting a 14% year-on-year increase [4][9] - The EBITDA for 2025 is forecasted at 9.28 billion AED, a 7% increase from the previous year, with an EBITDA margin of 29%, slightly down from 31% in 2024 [6][9] Production and Operational Highlights - Alumina production is expected to be 2.40 million tons in 2025, a decrease of 5% compared to 2024 [9] - The cast metal production is projected to reach 2.84 million tons, an increase of 2% from 2024 [2][9] - High-value products, referred to as "premium aluminum," are expected to account for 81% of total production in 2025, down from 82% in 2024 [2][9] - The company has diversified its supply chain for bauxite, sourcing from Australia, Ghana, and Brazil after the termination of a basic agreement with the Guinean government [1]

Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 资料来源：国泰君安期货研究 2 ◆ 自上周末伊朗事件爆发后，我们在上周周报中提及，在此次战争事件持续发酵的前提下，海外铝锭定价偏看向上，且 若发酵时间过长，海外中期向上空间也将被打开，不排除试探2022年俄乌危机时高点的可能性。内外价差倾向正套， 伦敦相对强于沪铝，亦可双多。电解铝和氧化铝跨品种上，建议做多铝厂利润，多AL空AO，风险点是AO盘面交易 者可能跟随有色资金市定价，且春节前后氧化铝现货支撑偏强，节后库存回补预期也在升温，新疆招标价提价，该操 作谨慎尝试。 ◆ 过去一周因中东局势继续发酵，且临近周末伴随海峡封锁时长可能延长的消息，本周五夜盘一众能化品种再次触板， 沪铝亦重新获得向上动能。本周卡塔尔、巴林电解铝已出现实质性减产及发运不可抗力、原料供应遇阻，海外现货端 已有抢货情况，日本MJP（地区升水）在3.3（本周二）自162.5美元/吨跳涨至205美元/吨，截至3.6（本周五）上调 至225美元。我们认为若海峡关闭持续，伦铝拉涨强度犹在，并带动国内。风险点：目前价格单边方向及波动率的变 化，极度依赖于伊朗及霍尔木兹海峡封 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [6] Core Insights - The report highlights that Bahrain Aluminum's (Alba) aluminum production for 2025 is expected to grow by 0.05% year-on-year to 1.623 million tons, with a profit increase of 193.4% to $289.2 million [2][3] - The sales volume reached 1,613,360 tons, reflecting a 0.11% year-on-year growth, while the value-added product (VAP) sales volume accounted for 74% of total shipments, up 2 percentage points from the previous year [2] - Alba's total equity as of December 31, 2025, reached 2.0856 billion Bahraini Dinars (approximately $5.5468 billion), an increase of 8.4% compared to the previous year [4] - The company aims to exceed its 2025 net product output record of 1,623,139 tons and achieve revenue targets of $150 million from the e-Al Hassalah project in 2026 [7] Production and Operational Performance - The net product output for 2025 is projected to be 1,623,139 tons, with a focus on improving operational efficiency [2] - The VAP sales volume for 2025 is expected to reach 1,195,788 tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.3% [2] Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, Alba achieved a profit of 1.087 billion Bahraini Dinars (approximately $289.2 million), a significant increase from 371 million Bahraini Dinars (approximately $98.6 million) in Q4 2024, marking a 193.4% growth [3] - The total comprehensive income for Q4 2025 was 1.07 billion Bahraini Dinars (approximately $284.7 million), up 181% from 381 million Bahraini Dinars (approximately $101.3 million) in the same quarter of 2024 [3] - For the entire year of 2025, Alba's profit was 2.187 billion Bahraini Dinars (approximately $581.6 million), a year-on-year increase of 18.5% [3] Future Guidance - The company is committed to integrating sustainability into its entire value chain in response to Bahrain's 2060 net-zero emissions vision [5] - Alba is advancing sustainable solutions to promote a circular economy, with a project for aluminum dross treatment expected to be completed by September 2026 [7]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [5] Core Insights - In Q4 2025, the conversion processing revenue increased by 4% quarter-on-quarter to $365 million, while net profit decreased by 30% to $28 million [2][4] - The total shipments for Q4 2025 were 27.4 million pounds (12.43 thousand tons), a 1% increase from the previous quarter but a 6% decrease year-on-year [2] - The net sales for Q4 2025 reached $929 million, reflecting a 10% quarter-on-quarter increase and a 21% year-on-year increase, primarily due to rising average selling prices [3] Summary by Sections Operating and Performance Overview - Q4 2025 shipments were 27.4 million pounds, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1% and a year-on-year decrease of 6% [2] - The annual shipment volume for 2025 was 110.8 million pounds, down 5% year-on-year [2] Financial Performance - Q4 2025 net sales were $929 million, up 10% quarter-on-quarter and 21% year-on-year, driven by an increase in average selling prices [3] - The average selling price increased by 48% due to alloy metal hedging costs [3] - Q4 2025 net profit was $28 million, a 30% decrease quarter-on-quarter but a 40% increase year-on-year [4] Revenue by Business Segment 1. **Aerospace/High-Strength Applications** - Q4 2025 shipments were 46.8 million pounds, a 12% increase quarter-on-quarter but a 23% decrease year-on-year [9] - Q4 2025 net sales were $213 million, a 17% increase quarter-on-quarter but a 5% decrease year-on-year [9] 2. **Packaging Applications** - Q4 2025 shipments were 145.1 million pounds, a 1% increase quarter-on-quarter but a 5% decrease year-on-year [9] - Q4 2025 net sales were $440.6 million, a 12% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 33% increase year-on-year [9] 3. **General Engineering Applications** - Q4 2025 shipments were 58.6 million pounds, a 3% decrease quarter-on-quarter but a 6% increase year-on-year [9] - Q4 2025 net sales were $200 million, a 4% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 32% increase year-on-year [9] 4. **Automotive Extrusions** - Q4 2025 shipments were 23.5 million pounds, a 2% decrease quarter-on-quarter but a 9% increase year-on-year [9] - Q4 2025 net sales were $75.4 million, unchanged quarter-on-quarter and a 33% increase year-on-year [9] Cash Flow and Liquidity - The adjusted EBITDA for 2025 was $310 million, with total liquidity of $547 million as of December 31, 2025 [10] - The company announced a quarterly cash dividend of $0.77 per share on January 13, 2026 [10] 2026 Outlook - For 2026, the company expects conversion revenue to grow by 5% to 10% year-on-year, with adjusted EBITDA projected to increase by 5% to 15% [11]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [8] Core Insights - In Q4 2025, the comprehensive revenue of the Indian aluminum industry increased by 14% year-on-year to 665.21 billion rupees, while the net profit after tax decreased by 45% to 20.49 billion rupees [2][6]. - Novelis reported a total shipment of flat-rolled products of 809,000 tons in Q4 2025, a decrease of 11% year-on-year and 14% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The aluminum ingot total shipment was 345,000 tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1% [3]. - The aluminum products sales volume reached 108,000 tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 4% [4]. - Electrolytic copper sales were 122,000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8% [5]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, the EBITDA was 85.43 billion rupees, a year-on-year increase of 5% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 12% [6]. - The revenue from operations for Q4 2025 was 665.21 billion rupees, with a year-on-year growth of 14% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 1% [10]. - The net profit after tax for Q4 2025 was 20.49 billion rupees, a decrease of 45% year-on-year and 57% quarter-on-quarter [6][10]. Segment Performance - Novelis generated revenue of 4.2 billion USD in Q4 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3%, primarily due to rising metal prices [7]. - The aluminum ingot segment achieved a quarterly revenue of 106.2 billion rupees, a year-on-year increase of 6%, with an EBITDA of 48.32 billion rupees, up 14% [9]. - The aluminum products segment reported a revenue of 39.09 billion rupees, a year-on-year increase of 22%, with record EBITDA of 2.33 billion rupees, up 55% [9]. - The copper segment's revenue reached 182.33 billion rupees, a year-on-year increase of 33%, despite a decline in TC/RCs market [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In February 2026, aluminum prices first declined and then rebounded. At the beginning of March, affected by the Middle East conflict, price fluctuations increased. The supply risk in the Middle East region has not been eliminated, and the planned shutdown and maintenance of South32's Mozambique aluminum smelter are expected to keep the supply tight, with a stronger expectation of tight overseas supply. As domestic downstream industries gradually resume production, the expected increase in the domestic molten aluminum ratio will relieve the pressure of aluminum ingot inventory accumulation, and aluminum prices are expected to remain strong. The operating range of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is expected to be between 23,800 - 26,000 yuan/ton, and the LME Aluminum 3M is expected to be between 3,200 - 3,500 US dollars/ton [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: As of the end of February 2026, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 45.109 million tons. In February, electrolytic aluminum production increased by 2.1% year-on-year and decreased by 8.9% month-on-month. In March, production is expected to increase with a year-on-year growth of about 2.8%. The domestic molten aluminum ratio decreased by 7.7 percentage points in February and is expected to increase by 9.2 percentage points in March. Overseas electrolytic aluminum production increased by about 2.5% year-on-year in February. In March, production growth is expected to decline due to the shutdown of Qatar Aluminum and the maintenance of South32's Mozambique aluminum smelter [12][84]. - **Inventory & Spot**: As of March 5, aluminum ingot inventory reached 1.27 million tons, an increase of about 417,000 tons compared to early February. Bonded area inventory was 47,000 tons, an increase of about 4,000 tons. Aluminum rod inventory totaled 398,000 tons, an increase of 121,000 tons. LME aluminum inventory was 459,000 tons, a decrease of 34,000 tons. The spot discount of domestic East China aluminum ingots narrowed, and the LME market Cash/3M spread strengthened [12]. - **Imports and Exports**: Since February, the loss of Shanghai aluminum spot imports has been expanding. In December 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were 189,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 29.5% and a year-on-year increase of 17.2%. The cumulative imports from January to December were 2.538 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 18.8%. In December, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 545,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4.4%; the cumulative export from January to December was 6.134 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.0% [12]. - **Demand**: In February, the operating rate of primary aluminum processing enterprises weakened seasonally. In March, the operating rate rebounded with some differentiation. In March, the production schedule of photovoltaic modules increased, while the high-frequency data of the real estate and automotive industries were weak. The decline in the production schedule of the three major white goods (air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines) narrowed, with production compared to the same period last year decreasing by 6.1%, increasing by 1.6%, and decreasing by 3.4% respectively [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Prices**: In February 2026, aluminum prices first declined and then rebounded. The Shanghai Aluminum main contract fell 2.95% to 23,835 yuan/ton, and the LME Aluminum 3M slightly increased by 0.19% to 3,141 US dollars/ton. At the beginning of March, due to the Middle East conflict, aluminum supply disruptions increased, and aluminum prices soared [22]. - **Term Spread**: In February, aluminum prices first declined and then rebounded. Against the background of the traditional off - season, the term spread weakened [27]. - **Spot Basis**: The spot discounts in East China, South China, and Central China narrowed compared to early February. The spot premium/discount in East China was slightly weaker than in previous years [30]. - **Regional Premium/Discount Spread**: In February, the East China spot strengthened relatively [35]. - **LME Premium/Discount**: The LME Aluminum Cash/3M spread strengthened, and at the beginning of March, the spot and the 3 - month contract were nearly flat [40]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Profit**: In February, the primary aluminum smelting profit declined and then increased at the beginning of March, reaching a historical high [48]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory**: As of March 5, aluminum ingot inventory was 1.27 million tons, an increase of about 417,000 tons compared to early February; bonded area inventory was 47,000 tons, an increase of about 4,000 tons; aluminum rod inventory totaled 398,000 tons, an increase of 121,000 tons. The combined inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased by about 538,000 tons compared to early February. LME aluminum inventory was 459,000 tons, a decrease of 34,000 tons, still at a relatively low level in recent years [51][54][57]. 3.4 Cost Side - **Bauxite Price**: In February, domestic bauxite prices remained stable, while overseas bauxite prices declined slightly [65]. - **Alumina Price**: In February, domestic alumina prices stabilized, and imported alumina prices continued to be weak [70]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Cost**: In February, anode prices declined, and thermal coal prices increased month - on - month [75]. 3.5 Supply Side - **Alumina**: In January 2026, alumina monthly production increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the operating rate remained at around 81% [81]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of the end of February 2026, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 45.109 million tons. In February, electrolytic aluminum production increased by 2.1% year - on - year and decreased by 8.9% month - on - month. In March, production is expected to increase with a year - on - year growth of about 2.8%. In February 2026, overseas electrolytic aluminum production was 2.372 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 2.5%. In March, production growth is expected to decline due to the Middle East conflict [84]. - **Molten Aluminum Ratio**: In February, the aluminum rod processing fee fluctuated and increased. At the beginning of March, the sharp increase in aluminum prices once led to a negative aluminum rod processing fee. In February 2026, the domestic molten aluminum ratio decreased by 7.7 percentage points to 64.4%. In March, as downstream industries resume production, the molten aluminum ratio is expected to increase by 9.2 percentage points [87]. 3.6 Demand Side - **Aluminum Products Production**: In December 2025, China's aluminum products production was 6.136 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%; the cumulative production from January to December was 67.504 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. Since February, the aluminum ingot出库 volume has weakened seasonally [94]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: In February 2026, China's aluminum rod production was 1.092 million tons, and the cumulative production in the first two months decreased by about 4.5% year - on - year; the operating rate in February was 41.4%, significantly lower than the same period last year. In January 2026, the operating rate of aluminum profiles decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year, and the operating rate in February was weak; the operating rate of aluminum sheets, strips, and foils increased both year - on - year and month - on - month in January and remained high in February. In January 2026, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy ingots decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year, and the operating rate in February continued to be higher than the same period last year; the operating rate of aluminum rods increased month - on - month and decreased year - on - year in January, and the operating situation in February was relatively good. In January 2026, the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year, and the operating rate in February decreased seasonally, and is expected to return to normal in March. In February, the price difference between aluminum ingots and aluminum alloys narrowed month - on - month [97][101][105][108]. - **Terminal Demand**: According to the production schedule report of the three major white goods released by Industry Online, in March 2026, the production schedule of household air conditioners was 23.34 million units, a decrease of 6.1% compared to the actual production in the same period last year; the production schedule of refrigerators was 8.43 million units, an increase of 1.6% compared to the actual production in the same period last year; the production schedule of washing machines was 7.34 million units, a decrease of 3.4% compared to the actual production in the same period last year. The high - frequency data of real estate and automobile sales were weak, and the production schedule of photovoltaic modules increased month - on - month in March [112]. 3.7 Imports and Exports - **Aluminum Ingot Imports**: In February, the loss of domestic aluminum spot imports fluctuated, and at the beginning of March, the import loss expanded. In December 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were 189,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.5% and a year - on - year increase of 17.2%. The cumulative imports from January to December were 2.538 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.8%. In December 2025, aluminum ingot imports mainly came from Russia, Indonesia, India, Australia, etc., with the import volume from Russia increasing to 76% [117][121]. - **Aluminum Products Exports**: In December 2025, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 545,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.4%; the cumulative export from January to December was 6.134 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.0%. In December 2025, the import volume of recycled aluminum was 194,000 tons, an increase of 31,000 tons month - on - month; the cumulative import volume from January to December was 2.015 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.1% [124]. - **Bauxite and Alumina Imports and Exports**: In December 2025, China's bauxite imports were 14.673 million tons, with an import ratio of 72.5%. The cumulative bauxite imports from January to December were 200.532 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.3%. In December 2025, China's alumina exports were 206,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.3%. The cumulative alumina exports from January to December were 2.548 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 42.7% [127].