Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need to adapt investment strategies in response to changing global trade dynamics, focusing on domestic consumption and sectors less affected by international trade tensions [2][24]. Group 1: Non-Export Industries - Non-export industries are characterized by having a complete domestic supply chain, with products or services produced and consumed within the country, making them less directly impacted by tariff changes [5][6]. - Key sectors include finance, real estate, public utilities, and transportation, which are expected to benefit from stable domestic demand despite external pressures [6][7]. Group 2: Domestic Demand-Related Industries - There is significant potential for growth in domestic demand-related industries, such as food and beverage, tourism, agriculture, and pharmaceuticals, driven by government policies aimed at boosting internal consumption [8][10]. - The World Bank reports that in 2023, China's final consumption expenditure accounted for 55.6% of GDP, which is 17.4 percentage points lower than the global average, indicating room for growth [8]. Group 3: Rare Earth and Military Industries - The rare earth sector is crucial for military applications and has a significant strategic advantage, as China controls 49% of global rare earth reserves and 90% of refining capacity, making it a key player in global supply chains [14][16]. - Military strength is seen as essential for protecting economic interests, with the military-industrial complex being a focus for investment [16][17]. Group 4: Self-Sufficiency and Control - The emphasis on self-sufficiency highlights the importance of mastering core technologies across various sectors, particularly in semiconductors, high-end chips, and industrial machinery, to mitigate external dependencies [19][20]. - Recent advancements in domestic technology, such as breakthroughs in semiconductor equipment, underscore the urgency of achieving technological independence [19][20]. Group 5: Artificial Intelligence - Artificial intelligence is identified as a critical area for future competition between major powers, with the potential to transform various industries and drive economic growth [21][23]. - China's advantages in AI include a large internet user base and a strong talent pool, positioning it well for advancements in this field [23].

寻找确定性——2025年5月策略观点 分析师：张宇生 执业证书编号：S0930521030001 2025年5月6日 证券研究报告 4、风险提示 2 核心观点 1 核心问题一：指数韧性来自于内部确定性。4月A股市场先抑后扬，赚钱效应表现一般。短期来看，外部情绪风险扰动最严重的时 候或许已经过去，内部政策与中长期资金的确定性是指数保持韧性的主要驱动因素。 核心问题二：未来还会有哪些变化？外部变化可能会趋于复杂。关税政策下美国经济和通胀均压力增大，同时面临美元指数持续下 行、美债到期规模新高等问题，此外本轮特朗普政府恐怕难以通过2018年的减税手段来对冲关税对美国内部的冲击，因此关税问 题后续变化值得期待。不过，关税之外，美国对华或许还有其他"遏制"手段，参考2018年，或许以科技、制造业管制和投资限 制为主。不过国内仍有政策刺激空间，关注扩大内需、鼓励外贸、刺激投资与地产等方向。未来市场的主导因素将从风险偏好逐步 转向基本面。 核心问题三：有哪些确定性主线？1）内需消费，扩内需一直是近期国内政策的重点，未来有望持续迎来政策催化，此外，消费行 业业绩整体更具韧性，建议关注家居用品、食品加工、厨卫电器、小家电等行业 ...

注：本文系新闻报道，不构成投资建议，股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 （文章来源：证券时报网） 业 | 基础化 | 76.48 | 15.02 | 2.86 | 1.15 | -5.73 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 工 | | | | | | | 有色金 | 41.67 | -3.26 | 1.91 | 0.45 | -9.44 | | 属 | | | | | | | 家用电 | 25.04 | 7.97 | 3.27 | 0.54 | -9.58 | | 器 | | | | | | | 汽车 | 62.38 | 15.64 | 2.90 | 0.10 | -13.72 | | 电力设 备 | 56.60 | 3.75 | 2.34 | 0.89 | -14.43 | | 机械设 | | | | | | | 备 | 101.44 | 10.38 | 3.78 | 0.59 | -14.68 | | 传媒 | 38.92 | -10.53 | 2.68 | -0.56 | -15.14 | | 医药生 | 51.24 | 7.14 | 1.89 | -0.11 | ...

Group 1 - The stock price of Zhongchong Co., Ltd. has reached a new historical high, with a recent increase of 5.32%, bringing the price to 60.01 yuan and a total market capitalization of 17.704 billion yuan [2] - In the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry, Zhongchong Co., Ltd. is among the top gainers, with a recent increase of 5.32%, while the overall industry has seen a rise of 0.64% [2] - The margin trading data indicates that the latest margin balance for Zhongchong Co., Ltd. is 279 million yuan, with a financing balance of 277 million yuan, reflecting a 60.69% increase over the past 10 days [2] Group 2 - The company's Q1 report shows a revenue of 1.101 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 25.41%, and a net profit of 91.155 million yuan, which is a 62.13% increase [3] - The basic earnings per share for the company is 0.3094 yuan, with a weighted average return on equity of 3.65% [3]

国外 1. 高盛：黄金的表现将继续优于白银 周一，高盛在一份报告中称，黄金将继续跑赢白银，央行需求强劲是推高金银价格比的一个因素。因 此，该行预计白银不会赶上目前正在持续的黄金涨势。高盛还表示，如果经济衰退发生，估计ETF资金 流入的加速将推动黄金价格到年底达到3880美元。该行重申对黄金的结构性看涨观点，基本预期年底金 价为每盎司3700美元，到2026年中期则达4000美元。 2. 高盛：美联储不太可能因为"软数据"疲弱就降息 美国消费者和企业调查显示出一种焦虑的经济情绪，但基础数据尚未显示经济严重放缓。高盛经济学家 写道，美联储不太可能仅根据"软数据"就放松政策，尤其是因为在最近的过去，软数据错误地预示着衰 退即将来临，比如美联储在2022年抗击通胀期间。高盛的团队写道，美联储"在降息之前，也希望看到 劳动力市场和其他硬数据的证据"。这家投行和华尔街其他机构一样，相信美联储将在周三的利率决议 中保持利率不变。 3. 大摩：美联储不会先发制人 摩根士丹利由首席美国经济学家Michael Gapen领衔的分析师团队在一份研报中写道："鉴于美联储预计 通胀将保持坚挺，且关税冲击可能会产生持续的通胀效应，美联储 ...

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 05 06 年 月 日 五月配置建议：主权 CDS 下行预示 AH 股机会 本期话题：系统化投资机会。1）美联储流动性处于宽松状态。美联储流 动性指数 2024 年底下行至收缩区间，今年 3 月 23 日转正，截至 5 月 2 日为 20%，表明美联储流动性较为宽松，对此相对更为敏感的高收益债和 新兴市场权益或有不错机会。2）中国主权 CDS 近期迅速下行。作为反映 海外对中国潜在风险定价的指标，CDS 与 A 股、港股的走势均明显负相 关。截至 5 月 2 日，中国主权 CDS 已触发近 20 日下行信号，表明海外对 中国预期已显著修复，利好 AH 股表现。3）久期择时策略跟踪和最新预 测。我们基于"利率债收益拆解->利率建模预测->蒙特卡洛模拟->利率债 预期收益计算"等步骤，可以估算任一期限国债持有任意时长的预期回报， 截至 4 月 30 日，综合未来 1 个月和未来 12 个月的收益预测结果，推荐 配置 1-3 年期的久期。 战略配置：大盘优于小盘。从 A 股收益预测模型的最新预测来看，沪深 300 未来一年预期收益为 19.7%，中证 ...

(本版专题数据由证券时报中心数据库提供) 内需市场一头连着经济发展，一头连着社会民生，是经济发展的重要依托。 2025年政府工作报告将"大力提振消费、提高投资效益，全方位扩大国内需求"列为今年政府工作十项任 务之首，并围绕"大力提振消费"作出了具体工作部署，提出要"实施提振消费专项行动，制定提升消费 能力、增加优质供给、改善消费环境专项措施，释放多样化、差异化消费潜力，推动消费提质升级"。 今年以来，一系列扩内需促消费政策发力显效，做强国内大循环，进一步释放我国超大规模市场活力。 在一季度实现"开门红"后，多地抓紧部署二季度经济工作重点，明确进一步聚焦提振内需，加快释放政 策效能。 广东明确，大力提振消费需求，深入实施提振消费专项行动，推动消费品以旧换新政策惠及领域进一步 延伸拓展，持续放大撬动效应；适度加大消费补贴和政府采购力度，促进广货国货消费、新型消费、入 境消费、公共消费等，不断挖掘消费增量，激发消费活力。 紧随其后的是达仁堂（600329），滚动市盈率为10.3倍。公司2024年归母净利润为22.3亿元，同比增长 125.94%，拟向全体股东每10股派发现金红利12.80元(含税)。市盈率较低的还有 ...

Core Insights - The "Green Book" published by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences predicts a stable and positive development trend for China's agricultural and rural economy in 2024, contributing significantly to high-quality economic growth [1][3] - The per capita disposable income of rural residents is expected to reach approximately 24,000 yuan in 2025, reflecting steady income growth [3] Economic Performance - In 2024, the added value of the primary industry is projected to be 91,414 billion yuan, with a real growth of 3.5%, contributing 5.3% to GDP growth [1] - Fixed asset investment in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery is expected to grow by 6.4%, with significant increases in the food processing and manufacturing sectors, at 18.0% and 22.9% respectively [1] - The total retail sales of consumer goods in rural areas are anticipated to grow by 4.3%, increasing their share of total retail sales to 13.7% [1] Agricultural Production - The total grain production in 2024 is projected to reach 70649.9 million tons, marking a 1.6% increase and surpassing 700 million tons for the first time [2] - The yield per hectare for grain is expected to be 5,921.1 kg, reflecting a 1.3% increase, with wheat and corn showing the largest production growth at 2.6% and 2.1% respectively [2] Trade and Income - The agricultural trade deficit is expected to decrease to 112.15 billion USD, a reduction of 16.7% from the previous year, with a significant drop in corn imports by 49.7% to 13.64 million tons [2] - The average monthly income for migrant workers is projected to be 4,961 yuan, reflecting a growth of 3.8% [2] Future Outlook - The agricultural economy is expected to maintain stability in 2025, with continued support from government reforms and increased financial backing for agriculture [3] - Grain production is anticipated to remain stable at around 700 million tons, with prices for key agricultural products expected to stabilize [3] - The income disparity between urban and rural residents is projected to decrease, with the urban-rural income ratio expected to drop to around 2.3 [3]

| 行业名 | 成交量（亿 | 成交量较昨日增减 | 换手率 | 涨跌幅 | 今日主力资金净流入（亿 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 称 | 股） | （%） | （%） | （%） | 元） | | 计算机 | 80.08 | 16.11 | 4.54 | 3.65 | 56.72 | | 电子 | 73.37 | 23.97 | 2.68 | 2.64 | 46.98 | | 非银金 融 | 42.19 | 31.55 | 1.02 | 1.38 | 24.29 | | 机械设 备 | 90.99 | 18.74 | 3.40 | 3.04 | 22.76 | | 有色金 属 | 43.08 | 42.69 | 1.97 | 2.57 | 20.75 | | 通信 | 31.97 | 41.66 | 1.85 | 3.59 | 20.12 | | 电力设 备 | 54.55 | 8.54 | 2.26 | 2.16 | 15.08 | | 汽车 | 53.94 | 4.84 | 2.51 | 2.20 | 13.02 | | 传媒 | 41.10 | 1 ...

华金证券：聚焦科技，部分消费可能也有配置机会。 关于5月行业配置，华金证券认为： （1）5月科技和消费可能是配置主线。 一是复盘历史，5月消费旺季下消费、大金融行业相对占 优，同时政策导向和产业趋势上行的行业也表现偏强。 二是今年5月来看，消费和科技可能相对占 优： 首先，"五一"假期期间出行和消费火爆，相关的社服、 食品饮料 等表现可能相对偏强； 其 次，当前政策支持的方向是提振消费、科技创新，相关的消费和科技表现可能相对占优。 （2）5月科技可能有超额收益。一是历史经验上，5月科技行业大概率有超额收益，且主要受产业和政 策催化驱动。二是今年来看，5月科技可能相对偏强：首先，5月科技产业大会密集召开，DeepSeek R2 发布，科技相关产业趋势不断上行；其次，政治局会议再次强调支持科技创新。 （3）5月一季报较好的行业可能表现占优。 （4）5月建议逢低配置：一是一是政策和产业趋势向上的计算机（国产软件、AI大模型）、机器人、 传媒（AI应用）、通信（算力）、电子（半导体）、创新药、电新等；二是政策和旺季催化下的食 品、社服（旅游、酒店、餐饮）、商贸零售、家电、建材等；三是大金融、电力等低估值红利行业。 展 ...