中证报中证网讯(记者吴科任)1月30日晚，西藏矿业（000762）发布2025年年度业绩预告，将由盈转 亏。公司预计2025年归母净利润为-4000万元至-2000万元，2024年对应为11174.38万元；预计2025年扣 非净利为-6000万元至-3000万元，2024年对应为7635.20万元；预计2025年实现扣除后营业收入3.2亿元 至3.9亿元，同比下降36.95%-48.26%。 值得一提的是，2025年年尾，西藏矿业"一把手"出现变动。根据当时公告，因工作调整，张金涛申请辞 去公司第八届董事会董事、董事长及战略委员会召集人、提名委员会委员等职务，辞职后将不在公司及 控股子公司担任任何职务。 西藏矿业表示，2025年，公司主要产品锂精矿、铬铁矿受产量和资源禀赋变化影响，销量和售价较2024 年出现下滑；同时，扎布耶二期投产后尚处在产能爬坡阶段，产能未能释放。 扎布耶二期于2025年9月投产，达产后可年产碳酸锂1.2万吨。"目前扎布耶二期产量暂不稳定，我们在 积极协调各合作方攻坚项自，力争早日实现达标达产。"西藏矿业近日回复投资者提问时表示。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the non-ferrous metals and new materials industry, indicating a high cost-performance investment stage with potential for sustained growth [1][5]. Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown a significant increase, with the Shenwan Non-Ferrous Metals Index rising by 94.73% in 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 77.07 percentage points [1][13]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between major powers like the US and China, are expected to continue impacting the stability of the metal supply chain, leading to increased raw material costs and upward price pressures on strategic metals [2][30]. - The demand outlook for non-ferrous metals remains strong, driven by emerging industries such as electric vehicles, renewable energy, and artificial intelligence, which require high-performance materials [4][34]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metals industry is experiencing a transformation due to supply constraints and changing demand dynamics, with certain metals reaching new price highs [1][2]. - The industry is positioned for growth, supported by favorable policies and a robust demand from new technologies [24][25]. Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities are particularly favorable in precious metals, copper, and strategic metals, with recommendations to focus on leading companies in high-growth sectors [3][5]. - Key companies to watch include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jiangxi Copper, and Northern Rare Earth [5]. Emerging Trends - The rapid expansion of new industries is creating a strategic demand for upstream materials, which are now subject to stricter performance and purity standards [4][34]. - The shift towards electric vehicles and renewable energy is expected to sustain high demand for metals like lithium, copper, and rare earth elements [36][42]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights the tightening supply of strategic metals due to increased global regulatory controls, which is expected to lead to a supply-demand imbalance [31][32]. - The copper market is particularly noted for its supply constraints and increasing demand, with a significant reliance on imports to meet domestic needs [46][47]. Future Outlook - The profitability outlook for the non-ferrous metals sector is expected to improve, with potential for continued price increases in copper, aluminum, and gold, driven by strong industrial demand and macroeconomic conditions [15][30].

Core Insights - The report indicates that the non-ferrous metals and new materials industry is currently in a high cost-performance investment phase, with expectations for continued growth [1] - As of December 31, 2025, the Shenwan Non-Ferrous Metals Index has seen a cumulative increase of 94.73% for the year, ranking first among 31 Shenwan primary industries, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 77.07 percentage points [1][13] - The industry is influenced by international dynamics and changes in supply patterns, with some metal prices reaching new highs [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The ongoing strategic competition between major powers like the US and China has made upstream metal resources a critical area of contention, leading to significant impacts on the stability of the metal supply chain [2] - Supply disruptions are expected to increase raw material costs, while tighter controls on strategic metals by various countries will further exacerbate price pressures [2] - The demand outlook for non-ferrous metals is clear, supported by long-term fundamentals [2] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights investment opportunities in precious metals, copper, and strategic metals, noting that gold has evolved into a strategic asset for managing systemic risks, with central banks likely to increase gold reserves [3] - The mining of copper is becoming increasingly challenging, with supply constraints supporting a long-term upward price trend [3] - The geopolitical competition is expected to lead to enhanced resource controls, creating structural investment opportunities in related sectors [3] Emerging Industries and Material Demand - Rapidly expanding sectors such as artificial intelligence, electric vehicles, renewable energy, and high-end semiconductors are driving unprecedented demand for upstream materials, which are now classified as "key strategic materials" or "high-tech value-added new materials" [4] - The performance, purity, form, and functionality of materials are subject to increasingly stringent standards, indicating a fundamental shift in investment logic [4] Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors such as copper, gold, and strategic metals, particularly in 2026, with an emphasis on leading companies that operate in high-growth areas with strong technological monopolies [5] - Specific companies to watch include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jiangxi Copper, Tongling Nonferrous Metals, China Rare Earth, Northern Rare Earth, Shenghe Resources, Xiamen Tungsten, Zhongtung High-tech, and Zhangyuan Tungsten [5]

| | | | 第一部分 前言概要 2 | | --- | | 【行情回顾】 2 | | 【市场展望】 2 | | 【策略推荐】 2 | | 第二部分 基本面情况 3 | | 一、行情回顾 3 | | 二、矿端供应仍偏紧 4 | | 三、12 月产量小幅下滑，1 月开工高位企稳缺上行动能 5 | | 四、终端消费 7 | | （一）消费电子有望温和增长 7 | | （二）光伏抢装结束，订单快速下滑 8 | | （三）长期锡化工消费或有拖累 9 | | 第三部分后市展望及策略推荐 10 | | 免责声明 11 | 有色板块研发报告 锡 2 月报 2026 年 1 月 3 0 日 长期供应宽松预期，锡价高位承压风险加大 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 2.套利：观望。 2026 年 1 月沪锡主力合约低开高走，月初从 32.6 万元/吨起步震荡上 行，1月13日刚果金矿区突发山体滑坡后加速冲高，1月29日夜盘创46.98 万元/吨历史新高，月末回落至 43.2 万元/吨附近震荡，全月涨幅超 35%； 伦锡 1 月 29 日创 5.90 万美元/吨新高，同步走强。 【市场展望】 预计 2 月沪锡市场将呈现高位宽幅 ...

Group 1 - Zijin Mining (02899) shares fell over 8%, currently down 8.63% at HKD 42.16, with a trading volume of HKD 6.971 billion [1] - The company announced plans to issue USD 1.5 billion zero-coupon secured convertible bonds maturing in 2031, with net proceeds of approximately USD 1.527 billion intended for capital expenditures on the Arriaga project in Peru, while the remainder will be used for working capital and general corporate purposes [1] - Reports indicate that the USD 1.5 billion convertible bonds were fully subscribed within 10 minutes [1] Group 2 - Citigroup released a report expressing a lack of confidence in recent copper price trends, suggesting that in the coming weeks, Chinese investors may further allocate or rotate funds into base metals to counter rising precious metal prices [1] - In the context of soaring silver and gold prices, copper prices could potentially rise to USD 15,000 to USD 16,000 per ton; however, Citigroup's baseline expectation is that copper prices will remain around USD 13,000 per ton by 2026, sufficient to achieve market supply-demand balance this year [1]

Market Overview - On January 30, the A-share market experienced a volatile correction, with the non-ferrous sector showing dramatic fluctuations, leading to significant declines in gold and non-ferrous ETFs, which approached their daily limit down before narrowing losses [1][3] - The non-ferrous ETF Huatai-PineBridge (159652) saw a drop of over 9%, which later reduced to 8%, with net subscriptions reaching 60 million units, translating to over 120 million yuan in net subscription amount [1] Precious Metals - The long-term outlook for gold remains strong due to factors such as de-dollarization, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical conflicts, although short-term pullback risks should be monitored [1][5] - Recent market dynamics saw COMEX gold futures reaching historical highs, while spot silver surged over 4%, and London copper prices jumped 8%, surpassing $14,000 per ton [3][5] Industrial Metals - The copper market is currently experiencing short-term emotional volatility, but the long-term logic remains intact, supported by tight supply and ongoing demand from AI and power grid construction [8] - Aluminum prices are expected to maintain high volatility due to mixed macroeconomic signals, with domestic production increasing and inventory pressures mounting [8] Investment Opportunities - The non-ferrous ETF Huatai-PineBridge (159652) is highlighted for its comprehensive coverage of various metal sectors, including gold, copper, aluminum, lithium, and rare earths, positioning it to benefit from the super cycle in non-ferrous metals [11][14] - The ETF has shown superior performance with a cumulative return leading its peers since 2022, and its valuation remains reasonable, indicating that price increases are driven by earnings rather than valuation expansion [16][17] Historical Trends - Historical patterns suggest that the non-ferrous sector is likely to continue its strong performance, particularly during the second phase of major market cycles, which is characterized by profit-driven price increases [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Guangxi government has made significant progress in addressing heavy metal environmental safety issues and promoting the high-quality development of the non-ferrous metal industry, achieving a production value of 461 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 16.9% [1] Group 1: Environmental Safety Measures - Guangxi has completed the inspection and rectification of heavy metal environmental hazards, effectively curbing pollution incidents [1] - A total of 1,919 heavy metal pollution sources were identified, with 1,564 sources rectified immediately, and 355 sources undergoing environmental risk assessment [1] - The province has focused on key river basins and industries, implementing a systematic approach to pollution source management [1] Group 2: Industrial Development Strategy - Guangxi is promoting the high-quality development of the non-ferrous metal industry through a "five transformations" strategy, emphasizing ecological protection alongside industrial growth [2] - The government is leveraging both domestic and international markets to enhance resource allocation and is focusing on the integration of mining rights and the management of small and scattered enterprises [2] - The province has identified 2,612 mining rights and 2,411 mining-related enterprises, planning to implement targeted measures for closure, consolidation, and upgrading [2] Group 3: Accountability and Enforcement - Guangxi has initiated a ten-year retrospective investigation into heavy metal pollution and illegal mining, resulting in 56 cases related to pollution and 299 cases of illegal mining being filed [3] - The province has pursued ecological damage compensation, recovering 110 million yuan in damages through public interest litigation [3] - Local party organizations are actively involved in the inspection and rectification process, fostering a responsible atmosphere among officials [3] Group 4: Future Directions - Guangxi aims to continue its efforts in pollution control and the high-quality development of the non-ferrous metal industry, focusing on integration, punishment, and quality enhancement [4] - The province is committed to a long-term battle against heavy metal pollution, striving to transform the region into a model for sustainable development in the non-ferrous metal sector [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent geopolitical risks have led to a significant drop in global risk assets, yet there is a notable increase in investment in the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly in the Huabao ETF, which saw a net subscription of 142 million units despite a market downturn [1][9]. Group 1: Macro Factors - The Federal Reserve is still in a rate-cutting cycle, creating a loose monetary environment [3][11]. - Rising geopolitical uncertainties are increasing demand for safe-haven assets [3][11]. - Concerns over the sustainability of U.S. debt and deficits are prompting central banks worldwide to reduce U.S. Treasury holdings and increase gold reserves, leading to a diversification of reserve systems [3][11]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics - Emerging industries such as renewable energy, AI, and aerospace are continuously driving demand for non-ferrous metals [3][11]. - Capital expenditures for major non-ferrous metal types peaked in 2011 and have since entered a prolonged contraction phase, resulting in a significant output gap in the industry [3][11]. - Supply constraints persist, providing price support and highlighting the strategic value and scarcity of these metals [3][11]. Group 3: Performance Outlook - As of January 28, among the 60 listed companies covered by the non-ferrous ETF, 24 have released earnings forecasts for 2025, with 21 expected to be profitable, indicating a positive outlook for nearly 90% of the companies [3][11]. - The high profitability of the non-ferrous metals sector is expected to continue for an extended period, with the sector gradually gaining growth attributes and deserving of a value reassessment [4][12]. - Domestic non-ferrous metal companies are valued lower compared to their overseas counterparts, despite having comparable growth potential and core competitiveness [4][12]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The Huabao ETF and its linked funds cover a wide range of non-ferrous metals, including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, allowing investors to capture the entire sector's beta performance [5][13]. - It is recommended to allocate 10%-20% of investment portfolios to the non-ferrous metals sector to benefit from price increases while diversifying risk [4][12].

Core Viewpoint - China Rare Earth Holdings (03788) has successfully completed a subscription agreement and a placement agreement, with significant share allocations to various investors, indicating strong market interest and confidence in the company [1] Group 1: Subscription Agreement - On January 29, 2026, China Rare Earth Holdings completed a subscription agreement, fulfilling all conditions outlined in the agreement [1] - A total of 43.96 million shares were successfully issued at a subscription price of HKD 3.80 per share [1] - The shares were allocated to four different investors, including 10.26 million shares to Zijin Global Fund, 7.90 million shares to Luyin, 5.30 million shares to Oriental Jinye, and 20.50 million shares to Manna Lake [1] Group 2: Placement Agreement - The placement agreement was also completed on January 29, 2026, with all conditions met [1] - A total of 162 million shares were successfully placed at a price of HKD 3.80 per share [1] - The shares were placed with no fewer than six investors, indicating a broad interest in the company's equity [1]

1月30日早间，紫金矿业在港交所公告，拟根据一般性授权发行于2031年到期的15亿美元零息有担保可 换股债券。初始转换价为每股H股63.30港元，较1月29日香港联交所所报每股H股最后收市价46.14港元 溢价约37.19%。待完成债券发行后，债券认购事项的所得款项净额将约为15.27亿美元。公司拟将该等 所得款项用于秘鲁阿瑞那项目建设资本开支，剩余将用于补充流动资金和一般公司用途。 ...