Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implementation of a capacity pricing mechanism for power generation in Gansu Province, which aims to enhance the economic viability of coal power and energy storage systems while promoting marketization in the electricity sector [3][4][5]. Summary by Sections Capacity Pricing Mechanism - The Gansu Provincial Development and Reform Commission released a draft notification outlining the capacity pricing standards and implementation scope, focusing on compliant coal power units and new energy storage systems [3][4]. - The initial capacity price for coal power units and energy storage is set at 330 yuan per kilowatt per year for a duration of two years, with adjustments based on market conditions thereafter [4]. Market Pricing Boundaries - The notification establishes price boundaries for the spot market, with a lower limit of 0.04 yuan per kilowatt-hour and an upper limit of 0.5 yuan per kilowatt-hour for bidding prices, while the clearing price limits are set at 0.04 yuan and 1 yuan per kilowatt-hour respectively [4]. Economic Impact on Coal Power - With the increase in capacity subsidies to 330 yuan per kilowatt per year, the compensation for coal power in Gansu is projected to rise to 0.080 yuan per kilowatt-hour, an increase of 0.056 yuan compared to the previous subsidy level [5]. - The article suggests that the profitability of coal power generation will not be overly concerning due to its regulatory capabilities amidst the rise of renewable energy installations [5]. Enhancement of Energy Storage Viability - The implementation of this notification is expected to significantly improve the economic feasibility of energy storage stations, with broader application and stronger compensation measures compared to previous policies in other provinces [6]. - Gansu's status as a major renewable energy province adds to the significance of this policy, potentially serving as a model for other regions [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the power equipment and renewable energy sector, indicating an expected investment return exceeding 15% over the next 6-12 months compared to the market benchmark index [5][8]. Core Insights - The Gansu Province's recent proposal to establish a capacity price mechanism for power generation aims to ensure the profitability of regulating power sources, particularly coal-fired power plants and new energy storage systems [1][2]. - The capacity price is set at 330 RMB per kilowatt per year for a two-year period, which is a significant increase from the previous level of 100 RMB per kilowatt per year, enhancing the economic viability of energy storage projects [2][3]. - The report highlights that the implementation of this capacity price mechanism will benefit the entire coal-fired power sector across the country, especially in regions with high wind and solar installations [3]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Capacity Price Mechanism - Gansu's capacity price standard includes compliance for operational public coal power units and grid-side new energy storage, excluding direct current supporting power sources [1]. - The capacity fee calculation is based on declared capacity multiplied by the capacity price and a supply-demand coefficient [1]. Section 2: Market Dynamics - The report notes that the establishment of a capacity market is a step towards marketization in the power sector, transitioning the business model from generation to providing ancillary services, which could lead to valuation increases [2]. - The average settlement price in the real-time market from January to May ranged from 0.211 to 0.349 RMB per kilowatt-hour, with set price boundaries for market transactions [1]. Section 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Gansu Energy, Guotou Power, and Baoneng New Energy in the coal power sector, and companies like Haibo Sichuang and Shenghong Co. in the energy storage sector, which are positioned to benefit from the new policies [3].

值得关注的是，电力行业正迎来市场化改革驱动的商业模式深刻变革。在136号文与现货电力市场的双 重推动下，下半年新能源投资有望显著降速，同时随着"十四五"建设高峰期渐入尾声，"十五五"期间电 力投资规模也将步入理性调整阶段。除此之外，我国新能源发电量显著增长，2024年我国风电、光伏发 电量约为1.84万亿千瓦时，占全社会用电量的18.5%，已成为国内第二大发电来源。 在此背景下，火电资产的产业地位与资源价值正加速凸显：一方面，在电力供应紧张时段，火电作为最 稳定的保障性电源，在现货市场可获得稀缺性定价；另一方面，随着新能源投资增速放缓，火电利用小 时数有望企稳回升，行业价值重估进程已然开启。业内分析认为，伴随电力市场化改革深化，火电行业 将从传统发电主导模式向"发电+调节"综合服务模式转型，商业模式将实现从"保电量"到"运营电价"的 跨越，"高现货电价+利用小时优化+容量保障收益"有望成为行业发展的主流方向。 7月14日晚间，宝新能源（000690）（000690.SZ）发布2025年上半年业绩预告，报告期内，公司业绩表 现亮眼，预计归属于上市公司股东的净利润达到5.2亿元—5.8亿元，同比增长42.08%— ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [9] Core Viewpoints - Gansu Province's Development and Reform Commission has announced a draft notice for establishing a capacity price mechanism for power generation, which will raise the coal-fired capacity price to 330 RMB/year·kW starting in 2026, marking the beginning of a full cost compensation era for coal power [2][6] - The full recovery of capacity prices is expected to stabilize coal power profitability without significantly impacting user electricity prices, as the substantial drop in coal prices in 2025 supports this transition [2][13] - The capacity price reform signifies a fundamental change in the commercial model of coal power, ensuring that fixed costs are recovered, thus allowing coal power to return to its public utility attributes [2][13] Summary by Sections Event Description - Gansu Province's Development and Reform Commission has released a draft notice soliciting opinions on establishing a capacity price mechanism for power generation [6] Event Commentary - The capacity price will be set at 330 RMB/year·kW starting January 1, 2026, ensuring full recovery of fixed costs for coal power plants. The capacity supply-demand coefficient will play a crucial role in determining the actual compensation received by coal power plants [13] - The transition to a capacity price mechanism is expected to mitigate the risk of losses for coal power, with recommendations for investment in companies like Huaneng International and Huadian International, which are expected to benefit significantly from this reform [13]

Group 1: Market Overview - US stock indices opened lower, with the Dow down 0.15%, Nasdaq down 0.01%, and S&P 500 down 0.09% [1] - Chinese concept stocks showed mixed performance, with Kingsoft Cloud up over 9% and NIO up over 5%, while Baidu, Sohu, and Youdao fell over 1% [1] Group 2: Currency and Economic Impact - HSBC warned that the ongoing sell-off of the US dollar may indicate a bubble, with the dollar index dropping over 10% in the first half of the year, the largest decline since 1973 [2] - The dollar has shown slight recovery since July [2] Group 3: Trade and Tariff Effects - Trump's announcement of a 30% tariff on EU imports starting in August has significantly impacted European industries, particularly the German automotive sector, with major manufacturers like Volkswagen and BMW seeing stock declines of 1.9% and 2.1% respectively [3] - French agricultural producers, especially in cheese and wine, have also expressed concerns over the destructive impact of these tariffs [3] Group 4: Energy Sector Dynamics - The energy market is experiencing a shift, with thermal power companies seeing improved profitability due to falling coal prices, while coal companies are facing profit pressure and some are reporting losses [5] - The coal industry is adapting by enhancing coal-electricity joint ventures to stabilize revenue streams [5] Group 5: Agricultural Sector Performance - Dabeinong is expected to turn a profit in the first half of the year, projecting a net profit of 190 million to 250 million yuan, a turnaround from a loss of 156 million yuan in the same period last year [6] Group 6: Autonomous Vehicle Development - Pony.ai has commenced mass production and road testing of its seventh-generation autonomous Robotaxi in Shenzhen, marking a significant step towards its goal of expanding its fleet to 1,000 vehicles by the end of 2025 [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the public utility and environmental sectors [4][22]. Core Insights - The construction of zero-carbon parks is being accelerated, with the release of renewable energy power consumption responsibility weights expected by 2025 [1][17]. - The report highlights the increasing responsibility weights for renewable energy consumption across various provinces, with most provinces expected to exceed 20% by 2025 [17][20]. - The report emphasizes the importance of integrating renewable energy development with energy management systems to achieve carbon neutrality [22][23]. Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.82%, while the public utility index increased by 1.11% and the environmental index by 3.17% [1][24]. - Within the electricity sector, coal-fired power increased by 0.41%, hydropower by 0.42%, and renewable energy generation by 1.05% [1][25]. Important Policies and Events - The National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and National Energy Administration issued a notice to accelerate the transformation of energy structures in parks and promote energy conservation and carbon reduction [15][16]. - Hainan Province's implementation plan for market-oriented reform of renewable energy grid prices includes a pricing structure for existing projects and competitive bidding for new projects [16] . Investment Strategy - Recommendations include major coal-fired power companies like Huadian International and Shanghai Electric, as well as leading renewable energy firms such as Longyuan Power and Three Gorges Energy [3][22]. - The report suggests that nuclear power companies like China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power will maintain stable profitability [3][22]. - In the environmental sector, companies like China Everbright Environment and Zhongshan Public Utilities are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [23][22]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts and Investment Ratings - Huadian International: Outperform, with an expected EPS of 0.46 in 2024 and 0.62 in 2025 [8]. - Longyuan Power: Outperform, with an expected EPS of 0.75 in 2024 and 0.85 in 2025 [8]. - China Nuclear Power: Outperform, with an expected EPS of 0.46 in 2024 and 0.50 in 2025 [8]. Industry Dynamics and Company Announcements - The report notes that the water and waste incineration sectors are entering a mature phase, with significant improvements in free cash flow [23]. - The report also highlights the potential for domestic waste oil recycling companies to benefit from the EU's SAF blending policy [23]. Industry Key Data Overview - In May, the industrial power generation increased by 0.5% year-on-year, with a total of 737.8 billion kWh generated [49][60]. - The total electricity consumption in May reached 809.6 billion kWh, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.43% [57][60].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the power sector, particularly hydropower and thermal power, indicating a "Buy" rating for several companies within these segments [3][56]. Core Insights - Hydropower companies have shown resilience with increased generation capacity, while thermal power has benefited from significantly reduced coal prices, leading to improved profitability in Q2 [3][15]. - The report highlights the impact of extreme weather on hydropower generation, with varying performance across regions, and notes the potential for continued profitability in thermal power due to low fuel costs [5][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Power Sector: Hydropower and Thermal Power Performance - Hydropower generation in the first half of 2025 showed a mixed performance across regions, with national utilization hours at 1023 hours, down 70 hours year-on-year. Notably, Sichuan and Yunnan provinces reported increases in utilization hours [9][14]. - Major hydropower companies like Yangtze Power and Huaneng reported significant increases in generation, with Yangtze Power's output at 1266.56 billion kWh, up 5.01% year-on-year [13][14]. - Thermal power costs have decreased significantly, with coal prices dropping to 632 RMB/ton in Q2 2025, a 26% year-on-year decline. This has led to substantial profit increases for companies like Jingneng Power and Jiantou Energy, with net profits expected to rise by over 100% [15][16]. 2. Natural Gas Market Dynamics - Rising summer temperatures have increased demand for gas-fired power, with European gas prices experiencing fluctuations. As of July 11, 2025, the Henry Hub spot price was $3.31/mmBtu, while European prices saw increases of 6.77% [19][20]. - The report notes that despite high temperatures driving demand, overall supply remains balanced, with U.S. natural gas production at record levels and inventories increasing [22][27]. - Recommendations include focusing on integrated gas companies and city gas firms, with specific mentions of Kunlun Energy and New Hope Energy as potential investment opportunities [43][56]. 3. Weekly Market Review - The report indicates that the public utility sector, including power and gas segments, outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index during the week of July 8-12, 2025 [45][46]. 4. Company and Industry Developments - Recent regulatory updates include initiatives to enhance the planning and construction of high-power charging facilities and the competitive allocation of offshore photovoltaic projects in Shanghai [51]. - Key announcements from companies such as China General Nuclear Power and Guangxi Power highlight ongoing operational improvements and generation capacity increases [52][54].

一、行情回顾 市场全天震荡分化，三大指数涨跌互现。机器人概念全天强势，上纬新材、中大力德、中欣氟材等多股涨停。电力、电网概念股反复活跃，建投能源、豫能 控股、国电南自等封板。下跌方面，大金融板块集体调整，南华期货、大智慧跌停。个股涨多跌少，沪深京三市超3100股飘红，今日成交1.48万亿，较上日 缩量超2500亿。 二、当日热点 1.机器人 机器人概念今日大涨，上纬新材4连板，中大力德、达意隆等2连板，易德龙、长荣股份等涨停。 7月11日，中国移动采购与招标网显示智元机器人和宇树科技中标中移（杭州）信息技术有限公司人形双足机器人代工服务采购项目。 除本订单外，根据企查查数据，2025年以来宇树与智元均拿下诸多其他大订单。宇树方面：2025年上半年曾中标同济大学通用人形机器人训练平台设备采购 项目，中标金额826万元；中标中国科学技术馆2025年度流动科普设施采购项目，中标金额627万元。智元方面：2025年上半年曾中标珠海具身智能应用创新 中心数采及展演机器人采购项目，中标金额1274万元；中标人形机器人有限公司数据采集平台项目，中标金额398万元。从中标结果来看，目前人形机器人 初步商业化的场景是表演展示领 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the positive performance of the thermal power sector, with significant stock price increases for companies like Jiantou Energy and YN Holding, driven by improved profitability in the electricity and heat production industry [1] - In April and May 2025, the electricity and heat production and supply industry achieved a total profit of 114.8 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 6.6%, indicating ongoing recovery in the industry [1] - The electricity ETF (159611) has seen a notable increase in trading volume and scale, with a recent scale of 3.36 billion yuan, making it the largest electricity-themed ETF in the market [1][2] Group 2 - The CSI All-Share Power Index has shown a total return increase of 30.65% over the past three months, outperforming similar indices, indicating strong market performance [2] - The recent high temperatures across China have led to record electricity loads, with the highest load reaching 1.465 billion kilowatts, highlighting the urgent need for demand-side management [2] - The ongoing high temperatures are expected to significantly increase electricity demand, particularly for air conditioning, which will likely boost the generation capacity of thermal power companies [3]

反内卷，周期的价值轮回 20250613 摘要 2025 年中报业绩预喜率接近 1/3，科技制造及供需偏紧的周期板块预喜 率较高，如电子、化工、机械、汽车、电芯、有色、医药等行业公司数 量靠前。关注中报能否建立或稳定长期预期。 二季度经济复苏动能仍待增强，呈现量增价减格局，工业企业利润承压， 实际现金盈利弱于账面盈利。投资策略应把握贴现率下降主线，聚焦业 绩支撑和产业催化密集赛道，以及反内卷赛道。 7-8 月反内卷困境反转策略有望走强，关注产能出清时间久、库存水平 低、竞争格局优化的板块。大盘股优于小盘股，重视边际上具备业绩增 长或困境反转可能的大众盘股票。 推荐科技板块（军工、电子、创新药及游戏）、供给扰动资源品（有色 化工）及受益资本市场改革的保险券商。困境反转方面关注钢铁、建材、 光伏及养殖业等板块。 稀土价格上涨受中美谈判影响，内盘价格提前启动，标志着进入第三阶 段主升期。关注广晟有色、盛和资源、北方稀土、中国稀土等标的，以 及金力永磁、宁波韵升和正海磁材等核心磁材企业。 Q&A 目前中报季的披露情况如何？各行业的业绩表现有何特点？ 截至 2025 年 7 月 13 日，全 A 股共有 2,486 家 ...