新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-11 多晶硅现货成交一般，盘面震荡运行 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-06-10，工业硅期货价格偏强运行，主力合约2507开于7405元/吨，最后收于7415元/吨，较前一日结算变化（60） 元/吨，变化（0.82）%。截止收盘，2507主力合约持仓155627手，2025-06-11仓单总数为59252手，较前一日变化-927 手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在8000-8300（0）元/吨；421#硅在8400-9000 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格7500-7700（0）元/吨，99硅价格在7500-7700（0）元/吨，现货价格企稳。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价10700-11500（-100）元/吨。SMM报道，据SMM统计，5月国内有机硅产 量环比4月上升6.48%，开工率增至62.37%，月内龙头企业集中规模检修，但其他部分企业装置负荷稍有提高，故 表现为运行产能减少，但实际产量增长的现象。6月虽仍有部分装置处于检修周期，但负荷的提高影响下，预计6 月排产仍将继续走高。 策略 近几日工业硅期货盘面反弹 ...

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the futures price rebounded while the spot price stabilized, with the basis narrowing significantly. The fundamentals changed little, but the overall sentiment improved recently. The price bottom is easily affected by various news, and the near - month contract has high positions, leading to large short - term fluctuations. Upstream enterprises can sell on rallies for hedging [1][2]. - For polysilicon, the futures price declined, and the spot price was weakly stable. The fundamentals are weak. As the number of warehouse receipts increases, the delivery game weakens, and the futures price is under pressure. Attention should be paid to the subsequent increase in warehouse receipts [3][5][10]. Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - On June 8, 2025, the main contract 2507 of industrial silicon futures opened at 7,245 yuan/ton and closed at 7,475 yuan/ton, up 2.33% from the previous settlement price. The position of the main contract 2507 was 177,663 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts on June 9 was 60,179 lots, a decrease of 394 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon was stable. The price of East China oxygen - containing 553 silicon was 8,000 - 8,300 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 8,400 - 9,000 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - containing 553 silicon was 7,500 - 7,700 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 7,500 - 7,700 yuan/ton. The prices of individual silicon in Xinjiang and Sichuan continued to decline, while those in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Tianjin, Shanghai, and the northwest remained stable, as did the price of 97 silicon [1]. - The DMC price of silicone was 10,900 - 11,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton. The weekend quotation of Shandong monomer enterprises decreased by 400 yuan/ton to 11,000 yuan/ton, and the bid - winning price dropped to 10,800 yuan/ton. After the price decline, the transaction center of the DMC market decreased [1]. Polysilicon - On June 8, 2025, the main contract 2507 of polysilicon futures opened at 34,620 yuan/ton and closed at 34,105 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.24% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 64,383 lots (65,179 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 123,726 lots [3][7]. - The spot price of polysilicon was stable. The price of polysilicon re - feedstock was 32.00 - 35.00 yuan/kg, dense material was 30.00 - 34.00 yuan/kg, cauliflower material was 29.00 - 31.00 yuan/kg, granular silicon was 32.00 - 33.00 yuan/kg, N - type material was 35.00 - 38.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 33.00 - 35.00 yuan/kg [3][7]. - The polysilicon inventory was 26.90 (a 0.37% month - on - month increase), the silicon wafer inventory was 20.02GW (a 7.80% month - on - month increase), the weekly polysilicon output was 22,000 tons (a 1.85% month - on - month increase), and the silicon wafer output was 13.04GW (a 2.67% month - on - month decrease) [3][4][7]. - The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 0.92 yuan/piece (a decrease of 0.03 yuan/piece), N - type 210mm was 1.28 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.08 yuan/piece [4][7]. - The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W (a decrease of 0.01 yuan/W), PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 battery cells were about 0.25 yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.26 yuan/W, Topcon210RN battery cells were 0.27 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery cells were 0.37 yuan/W [4][8][9]. - The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm components was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.69 - 0.70 yuan/W (an increase of 0.01 yuan/W), and N - type 210mm was 0.70 - 0.70 yuan/W (an increase of 0.01 yuan/W) [4][9]. Strategies Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations, and upstream enterprises can sell on rallies for hedging. - Inter - period: None. - Cross - variety: None. - Futures - spot: None. - Options: None [2]. Polysilicon - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations. - Inter - period: None. - Cross - variety: None. - Futures - spot: None. - Options: None [5][8][10].

作 者丨曹恩惠 编 辑丨骆一帆 6月9日，有媒体报道称，一位接近合盛硅业（603260.SH）的人士透露， 该公司正在谋求股 权转让，特变电工是此前的意向"接盘方"之一。 上述报道指出，截至5月底，双方对价格的谈判未能取得积极成果。"据了解，以董事长罗立 国为代表的合盛硅业实控人罗氏家族，出让全部股权的意向对价在百亿元级别。而特变电工 认为该价格偏离预期。" "对于任何捏造、散布此类不实信息、误导市场及投资者的行为，公司将采取一切必要法律手 段，严厉追究相关方的法律责任，坚决维护公司及全体股东的合法权益。"公司称，"如未来 发生与该事项相关的情形，本公司及相关信息披露义务人将严格按照法律法规要求及时履行 信息披露义务。" 作为工业硅和有机硅领域的双龙头企业，合盛硅业截至2024年底已经形成了工业硅产能122万 吨/年，有机硅单体产能173万吨/年。该公司也布局了光伏多晶硅等光伏制造环节，但受到近 两年光伏产业周期迎来低谷期的影响，其光伏板块的业务表现远不及传统硅基业务。 2024年，合盛硅业实现营业收入266.92亿元，同比增长0.41%；实现归属于母公司股东净利润 为17.40亿元，同比减少33.6%。而今 ...

Group 1 - The 2025 China (Leshan) Silicon Industry Chain Development Conference is scheduled to take place from June 24 to June 26 in Leshan, Sichuan Province, and is currently experiencing high registration interest [3] - All single rooms at the conference hotel are fully booked, and there are limited standard rooms available, indicating strong demand for the event [3] - The conference will not charge a registration fee, and participants can collect their representative certificates upon registration [4] Group 2 - Various promotional project pricing details are provided, including costs for roll-up banners (5000 yuan), material display (5000 yuan), video display during tea breaks (10000 yuan), and report presentations (50000 yuan) [4] - Member units are entitled to complimentary conference materials and meal vouchers, with limits based on membership level, while non-member units and excess member personnel will incur a fee of 2000 yuan per set for materials and meal vouchers [4] - Payment details for the conference are outlined, including the account information for the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association and instructions for obtaining electronic invoices [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are both recommended for short - selling strategies [6][7] Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon has an oversupply pressure, and its futures price has a downward driving force. It is recommended to short at high prices. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 6800 - 7200 yuan/ton next week. - Polysilicon also has a situation of increasing supply and weakening demand. It is advisable to short at high prices, and the expected trading range for next week is 33000 - 35000 yuan/ton [6][7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - The reference prices of mainstream consumption areas and the transaction prices of three major ports/warehouses for industrial silicon from May 20 to June 6, 2025, are presented, showing a general downward trend [10] 2. Industrial Silicon Supply Side - Smelting and Raw Material Ends - Supply: Yunnan and Sichuan silicon plants resumed production this week, and Xinjiang silicon plants also increased their operation rates after the electricity price reduction. Southwest China's entry into the wet season still drives resumption of production [2] - Inventory: The overall industry inventory continued to accumulate. The social inventory decreased by 0.2 tons, while the factory inventory increased by 0.4 tons. The futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1.3 tons this week [2] 3. Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Polysilicon - Supply: The short - term weekly output remains stable. It is expected that the production schedule in June will be 105,000 tons, an increase from May. The factory inventory decreased slightly this week, but the upstream inventory still has great pressure [3] - Demand: Terminal demand declined, leading to an expected reduction in silicon wafer production schedules from May to June. The silicon wafer price dropped, and the pricing power shifted to the downstream. It is expected that the actual signing price at the SNEC next week will fall [5] 4. Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Silicone - Supply: The weekly production of silicone increased this week, and there are expectations of further resumption of production [3] - Demand: The terminal of silicone has not improved, and the consumption boost is limited. The prices of downstream silicone products continued to fall [3] 5. Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Aluminum Alloys - Demand: The actual trading volume of rigid - demand orders did not increase significantly, and the export market was mainly based on rigid demand without hoarding [3]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.06.06」 工业硅多晶硅市场周报 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 短期恐慌情绪暂缓，大厂现金成本支撑 研究员:王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 目录 「 周度要点小结」 3 u 行情回顾： 本周工业硅上涨1.82%，本周上半周工业硅延续上周丰水期恐慌继续下跌，市场开始逼近了大厂现金成本 价，来到了7000以下，后来跌破7000后，期权市场在7500行权价附近看涨期权突然大幅增仓，同时期货空头仓位开始 减少，整体价格反弹上行，本周值得注意的是，12月以后合约对07合约升水幅度快速下滑，市场更多空头开始做空远 月合约，对于近月合约反而较少触碰，所以7000可以看做是市场短期一个默契的底部区域，本周多晶硅下跌2.42%，头 部企业目前集中减产挺价，但是效果依旧不明朗，本周多晶硅呈现了小幅下跌走势。 u 行情展望：工业硅方面，从供应端来看，随着丰水期临近，云南、四川等地逐步进入丰水期，电价成本优势显现，但 ...

Group 1 - The 2025 China (Leshan) Silicon Industry Chain Development Conference is set to take place, attracting participants from government departments, industry associations, major upstream and downstream silicon production enterprises, traders, consumers, equipment manufacturers, auxiliary material producers, financial institutions, research institutes, and media representatives [1] - The conference offers various promotional opportunities such as exhibition boards, roll-up banners, material placement, presentation reports, and more to enhance corporate visibility and facilitate collaboration [1] - Registration for the conference is free, with member units receiving complimentary conference materials and meal vouchers, while non-member units and excess members are charged 2000 yuan per set for materials and meal vouchers [8][9] Group 2 - The conference provides a detailed pricing list for promotional projects, including roll-up banners for 5000 yuan, tea break video displays for 10000 yuan, and exhibition booths for 20000 yuan [3] - Payment for the conference can be made to the designated account of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, with specific instructions for invoicing and record submission provided [8] - Contact information for various representatives related to industrial silicon, polysilicon, crystalline silicon photovoltaic enterprises, and accommodation is available for interested participants [9]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - Although the production of industrial silicon has increased slightly, it remains at a relatively low level. The downstream of industrial silicon is mainly concentrated in the fields of organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy. In the organic silicon sector, the spot price of the organic silicon market has risen, and enterprises have adopted a production - reduction strategy to support prices, which has achieved initial results but has a negative impact on industrial silicon. In the polysilicon segment, mainstream enterprises are currently reducing production, and the overall industry is operating at a reduced load, leading to a decline in the demand for industrial silicon, which is expected to further decrease after the 530 - node. In the aluminum alloy field, there is some demand support from the terminal consumer electronics and automotive industries, but enterprises mainly replenish inventory as needed, with inventory increasing, prices remaining flat, and the industry in a passive de - stocking phase, providing little impetus. Overall, the total demand for industrial silicon from the three major downstream industries shows a downward trend. The large number of warehouse receipts exerts significant delivery pressure on the market. It is recommended to pay attention to short - term rebound opportunities in the market, and maintain a high - selling strategy for medium - and long - term operations [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 7,135 yuan/ton, a decrease of 145 yuan; the main contract position is 183,965 lots, an increase of 3,637 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 25,752 lots, a decrease of 5,692 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts are 61,803 lots, a decrease of 887 lots; the price difference between the July - August contracts is - 10 yuan, an increase of 5 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - permeable 553 silicon is 8,150 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon is 8,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan; the basis of the Si main contract is 1,015 yuan/ton, an increase of 145 yuan; the DMC spot price is 11,740 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1,760 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 540 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly production of industrial silicon is 299,700 tons, a decrease of 36,050 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 582,000 tons, a decrease of 17,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly production of organic silicon DMC is 38,900 tons, a decrease of 100 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot market is 20,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kg; the weekly average spot price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.28 US dollars/kg, a decrease of 0.01 US dollars/kg; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 16,555.02 tons, a decrease of 1,621.87 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 59.2%, a decrease of 0.11 percentage points; the monthly production of aluminum alloy is 1.528 million tons, a decrease of 127,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons, a decrease of 337.93 tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - As of the end of May, the price of dense materials, which had been relatively stable, declined rapidly, with the average transaction price dropping by 10% in a single month to 36 yuan/kg, down 7.7% from the end of last year and the beginning of this year, 11.1% lower than the same period last year, and 44.6% lower than the beginning of last year. The state is increasing investment in long - term data infrastructure construction. From the supply side, as the wet season approaches, Yunnan, Sichuan and other places are gradually entering the wet season, showing an advantage in electricity price costs. However, based on the operating rate and production data, there is currently no intention to resume production in the southwest region [2].

Research Views - After the holiday on June 3, polycrystalline silicon fluctuated weakly, with the main contract 2507 closing at 34,360 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 2.65%, and the open interest decreasing by 5,800 lots to 71,600 lots. The price of SMM polycrystalline silicon N-type silicon material was 36,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable N-type silicon material dropped to 36,500 yuan/ton. The spot premium over the main contract widened to 2,140 yuan/ton. Industrial silicon also fluctuated weakly, with the main contract 2507 closing at 7,070 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 1.39%, and the open interest decreasing by 8,304 lots to 200,200 lots. The reference price of Baichuan industrial silicon spot was 8,777 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the last trading day before the holiday. The price of the lowest deliverable 553 silicon dropped to 7,650 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 575 yuan/ton [2]. - The downward adjustment of electricity prices during the wet season in Southwest China has led to the resumption of production, while large manufacturers in Northwest China will not cut production as they did in previous years, and downstream procurement has shrunk significantly. It is expected that industrial silicon will continue to bottom out, with the support from the cash cost line of large manufacturers in Xinjiang and the pressure from high inventory and increasing supply. A defensive short - selling strategy is maintained. The polycrystalline silicon self - discipline meeting in June will be held again. In addition to spontaneous production cuts by enterprises, the industry is expected to clarify an expansion of production limit quotas under the pressure of collapsing demand. In the near - term, due to the constraints of warehouse receipts, the one - sided decline is limited and the volatility increases. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the new electricity price regulations and the dynamics of warehouse receipts [2]. Daily Data Monitoring Industrial Silicon - The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased from 7,170 yuan/ton on May 30 to 7,075 yuan/ton on June 3, a decrease of 95 yuan/ton. The settlement price of the near - month contract also decreased by 95 yuan/ton to 7,075 yuan/ton. The prices of various grades of industrial silicon in different regions generally declined, with the largest decline of 150 yuan/ton for 421 silicon in Tianjin Port. The current lowest deliverable price decreased from 7,750 yuan/ton to 7,650 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased by 5 yuan to 575 yuan/ton [3]. - In terms of inventory, the industrial silicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 63,253. The inventory in Guangzhou Futures Exchange remained unchanged, while the inventories in Huangpu Port, Tianjin Port, Kunming Port, and industrial silicon factories decreased, with the total social inventory of industrial silicon decreasing by 11,800 tons to 409,100 tons [3]. Polycrystalline Silicon - The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased from 35,600 yuan/ton on May 30 to 34,360 yuan/ton on June 3, a decrease of 1,240 yuan/ton. The settlement price of the near - month contract decreased by 1,095 yuan/ton to 36,300 yuan/ton. The spot prices of N - type polycrystalline silicon material, dense material/single - crystal use, and cauliflower material/single - crystal use remained unchanged. The current lowest deliverable price remained at 36,500 yuan/ton, and the spot premium increased from 900 yuan/ton to 2,140 yuan/ton [3]. - The polycrystalline silicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 470. The inventory in Guangzhou Futures Exchange remained unchanged, and the factory inventory decreased by 0.1 million tons, with the total social inventory of polycrystalline silicon decreasing by 0.1 million tons to 26.8 million tons [3]. Organic Silicon - The price of DMC in the East China market remained unchanged at 12,000 yuan/ton. The prices of raw rubber and 107 glue remained unchanged, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 2,200 yuan/ton to 15,000 yuan/ton [3]. Downstream Products - The prices of silicon wafers (single - crystal M10/G12) remained unchanged at 1.03/1.58 yuan/piece. The price of single - crystal M10 battery cells remained unchanged at 0.285 yuan/watt, while the price of single - crystal G12 battery cells decreased by 0.28 yuan/watt [3]. Chart Analysis Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [4][6][10] Downstream Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polycrystalline silicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][14][16] Inventory - Charts present the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polycrystalline silicon weekly inventory [20][21][23] Cost and Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels in main production areas, weekly cost and profit of industrial silicon, profit of aluminum alloy processing industry, DMC cost and profit, and polycrystalline silicon cost and profit [26][28][29] Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metals team of Everbright Futures includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with more than a decade of commodity research experience. Wang Heng is mainly responsible for the research of aluminum and silicon, and Zhu Xi focuses on the research of lithium and nickel [33][34]

硅策略月报 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S | 工业硅&多晶硅：供给分歧，跌幅不等 | | --- | | 总 | 结 | | --- | --- | | 1.供给：据百川，预计5月国内工业硅产量31.54万吨，同比下滑19.5%，环比下滑0.3%。月度开炉数下滑3台至215台，开炉率下滑 | | | 0.38%至7.25%。北方地区，新疆大厂月内新停14台矿热炉，甘肃、陕西、内蒙各停1台；西南地区，云南新停1台矿热炉，四川硅厂 | | | 点火开启15台。其他地区宁夏新开3台矿热炉，青海新开1台，福建及广西各停2台。 | | | 2.需求：5月多晶硅产量下滑1.2万吨至8.76万吨，同比下滑49.9%，环比下滑12%。5月DMC产量增加1.24万吨至17.3万吨，同比增 | | | 36.9%，环比增长7.7%。多晶硅P型月度下跌600元/吨至3.27万元/吨，N型月度下跌1700元/吨至3.68万元/吨。晶硅产业链进去全面 | | | 主动降库存阶段，自下而上接货意愿持续走低，导致各环节排产下滑。拉晶端采购多倾 ...