行 华福证券 轻工制造 2025 年 06 月 08 日 业 研 究 轻工制造 英美烟草 H2 预期提速，618 大促看好国牌突围 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 【周观点】各大电商平台 618 大促延续，看好个护&户外运动国牌突围； 晨光携手国漫顶流平台腾讯视频，持续看好公司 IP 战略推进；英美烟草公 告 1H25 业绩前瞻，预计下半年新型烟草板块将显著提速，主要驱动为口 含烟持续强劲、下半年 Vuse Ultra 分阶段推出、以及 GLO HILO 在主流市 场分阶段推出，特别是 HNB 板块增速将受益新品在下半年显著提速。 团队成员 | 分析师： | 李宏鹏(S0210524050017) | | --- | --- | | lhp30568@hfzq.com.cn | | | 分析师： | 汪浚哲(S0210524050024) | | wjz30579@hfzq.com.cn | | | 分析师： | 李含稚(S0210524060005) | | lhz30597@hfzq.com.cn | | 相关报告 1、轻工纺服行业周报：618 大促看好个护国牌崛 起，关注智能眼镜新品催化——2025 ...

Group 1: Foreign Trade Resilience - Guangdong maintains its position as China's "foreign trade first province," with a 4.9% year-on-year growth in foreign trade in the first four months of 2025, outpacing the national growth rate of 2.9% [2] - The province's foreign trade showed a month-on-month recovery, with January experiencing a 3.7% decline, followed by growth of 3.1% in February and 14% in March, achieving historical highs in import and export volumes [2][3] - Guangdong's "Five External Linkages" strategy has been instrumental in stabilizing and expanding foreign trade, focusing on dual efforts in foreign trade and foreign investment, as well as leveraging external intelligence for industrial upgrades [2][3] Group 2: Cross-Border E-commerce Development - Guangdong's cross-border e-commerce is projected to reach a total import and export volume of 745.4 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for over one-third of the national total, serving as a key support for enhancing foreign trade quality [3] - The province has organized numerous trade promotion activities, including the "Cross-Border E-commerce Hundred Counties Tour," connecting over a thousand county-level enterprises with e-commerce platforms [3][4] - The Guangzhou cross-border e-commerce policy seminar introduced various support policies for jewelry enterprises, including warehouse rent subsidies and rewards for brand internationalization [5] Group 3: Technological Integration in Industry - Guangdong's high-quality development is driven by the deep integration of technology and industry, exemplified by the establishment of a fully unmanned system application scenario in Nansha [6] - The AI-driven company, Guangzhou Taidong Technology, has successfully applied generative AI in cross-border e-commerce, significantly reducing the time and cost of advertising material production [7] - The province's AI and robotics industry is projected to exceed 220 billion yuan in core industry scale by 2024, maintaining a leading position nationally [8] Group 4: Policy and Institutional Support - Guangdong is enhancing its international trade cooperation mechanisms, particularly with ASEAN, to promote cross-border trade and investment growth [10] - The province is also focusing on deepening economic cooperation within the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, facilitating regulatory alignment and business integration [11] - The establishment of the Guangdong AI and Robotics Industry Alliance marks a significant step towards accelerating technological innovation and industry integration [9] Group 5: Future Outlook - Guangdong's development path is characterized by its role as a "ballast stone" for foreign trade and a "dual-engine" for industrial technology, positioning itself for higher global value chain integration [13] - The province aims to leverage initiatives like "Yue Chain ASEAN" and "Yue Enterprises Going Global" to enhance its international economic influence [13]

据央视新闻6月3日消息，美国政府近期将钢铝关税提至50%，并向多国施压要求限期提交贸易谈判方 案，引发国际社会广泛争议与担忧。 美国此轮关税政策呈现出鲜明的"极限施压"特征。自4月宣布面向全球的"对等关税"以来，特朗普政府 一方面将钢铝关税从25%翻倍至50%，另一方面以7月9日恢复高额关税为威胁，要求贸易伙伴在4日前 提交谈判方案。这种"软硬兼施"的策略，本质是试图通过制造紧迫感迫使各国在市场准入、供应链调整 等核心议题上让步。数据显示，美国当前实际关税水平已达1938年以来最高，若"对等关税"完全实施， 将创下19世纪90年代以来的峰值，这种突破历史区间的关税壁垒，直接冲击全球贸易体系的稳定性。 贸易往来（资料图） 从短期看，美国政策已对自身经济产生显著反噬。经合组织年内两次下调美国增长预期，将2025年经济 增速预测从年初的2.2%调至1.6%，2026年预测值也降至1.5%。制造业成为首当其冲的领域：5月制造业 PMI连续第三个月低于荣枯线，降至48.5%，企业信心指数更出现1976年有记录以来的最大单季跌幅， 从60点骤降至34点。小企业主普遍反映成本激增，俄亥俄州某电吉他踏板厂商因零部件进口成本上 ...

2025 年 06 月 05 日 行业日报 看好/维持 机械 机械 太平洋机械日报（20250605）：开普勒机器人再获新融资 ◼ 走势比较 (20%) (8%) 4% 16% 28% 40% 24/6/5 24/8/17 24/10/29 25/1/10 25/3/24 25/6/5 机械 沪深300 ◼ 子行业评级 相关研究报告 << 太平洋机械日报（20250603）：北 京人形机器人创新中心增资至 4.6 亿>>--2025-06-04 <<太平洋机械日报（20250527）：2025 第九届世界无人机大会闭幕>>-- 2025-05-28 证券分析师：崔文娟 电话：021-58502206 E-MAIL：cuiwj@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190520020001 证券分析师：刘国清 电话：021-61372597 E-MAIL：liugq@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190517040001 证券分析师：张凤琳 电话： E-MAIL：zhangfl@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190523100001 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要 市场表现： 2 ...

公司公告： 【光格科技】公司持股5%以上股东苏州方广二期创业投资合伙企业（有限合伙）在减 持前持有公司股份的5.76%，于2025年5月8日至2025年5月16日通过集中竞价交易方式和大 宗交易方式减持公司总股本的0.76%。 【物产金轮】公司持股5%以上股东南通金轮控股有限公司在减持前持有公司股份的 11.4033%，以集中竞价、大宗交易方式合计减持公司总股本的0.4884%。 【爱科科技】公司持股5%以上股东杭州瑞步投资管理合伙企业（有限合伙）及其行为 一致人在减持前持有公司股份的8.66%，计划通过集中竞价交易方式减持公司总股本的 1.00%。 太平洋近日发布机械日报：6月4日，湖北人形机器人创新中心正式揭牌。中心位于湖北 人形机器人产业园，由东湖高新区投资建设，包括动作训练场、数据采集场、应用实践场和 人才培养基地，打造创新、联合、开放、共享的人形机器人公共服务平台。中心工作人员介 绍，全球人形机器人正处于技术创新和产业发展关键期。 以下为研究报告摘要： 报告摘要 市场表现： 2025年6月5日，沪深300上涨0.23%，机械板块上涨0.67%，在所有一级行业中排名7。细 分行业看，工业机器人及工控系 ...

Core Viewpoint - Guangdong is leveraging its position as China's largest foreign trade province and its technological strength to stabilize the domestic economy amidst global supply chain restructuring, focusing on high-quality development through strategic initiatives and industrial upgrades [1][6]. Group 1: Foreign Trade Resilience - Guangdong's foreign trade grew by 4.9% year-on-year in the first four months of 2025, outperforming the national average by 2.9 percentage points [1]. - The province's import and export growth rebounded monthly, with January seeing a decline of 3.7%, followed by increases of 3.1% and 14% in February and March, respectively [1]. - Guangdong contributed 65.2% of the national growth in foreign trade during the first quarter, achieving record highs in import and export volumes [1]. Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The "Five External Linkages" strategy has been implemented to enhance foreign trade resilience through dual efforts in foreign trade and investment, as well as collaboration in outsourcing and foreign economic activities [1]. - Guangdong organized 119 trade delegations and engaged over 2,300 enterprises to explore new market opportunities in regions such as the Belt and Road Initiative countries and RCEP member states [2]. - The "Cross-border E-commerce Hundred County Tour" initiative connected over a thousand county-level enterprises with e-commerce platforms, injecting digital momentum into the local economy [2]. Group 3: Quality Improvement in Foreign Trade - The recent IEAE Vietnam International Consumer Electronics and Home Appliances Exhibition attracted 271 Guangdong enterprises, showcasing the province's commitment to quality improvement in foreign trade [3]. - Legal consultation services were provided at the exhibition to support enterprises in navigating international market rules, indicating a shift from merely exporting products to ensuring compliance and support [3]. - Policies introduced at the "Yiqi Xing" cross-border e-commerce policy briefing aimed to assist traditional jewelry enterprises in their transition to cross-border e-commerce [3]. Group 4: Technological Empowerment - Guangdong's high-quality development is driven by the deep integration of technology and industry, with initiatives like the first nationwide all-space, all-factor unmanned system demonstration in Nansha [4]. - AI-driven companies like Guangzhou Taidong Technology are pioneering the application of generative AI in cross-border e-commerce, significantly reducing production costs and time for advertising materials [4]. - The robotics sector in Guangdong is experiencing explosive growth, with companies reporting a 200% increase in order volume in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the previous year [5]. Group 5: Institutional and Industrial Upgrades - Guangdong is enhancing its role in the national economy through institutional openness and industrial upgrades, establishing trade promotion and supply chain cooperation mechanisms with ASEAN [5]. - The province plans to create a "Yue Chain ASEAN" brand to boost international trade and investment, along with establishing trade and investment service centers in several ASEAN countries [5]. - The ongoing initiatives are expected to elevate Guangdong's position in the global value chain, contributing significantly to the province's economic strength [6].

多方协同助力 今年以来，我国内外贸制度规则持续融合，重点领域实现率先发展，支持政策不断完善，内销环境持续 优化，外贸企业拓内销取得重要进展，一体化经营能力明显提高。专家表示，下一步，应进一步聚焦政 策执行协同，推动重点领域深化改革，持续推进内外贸一体化发展。 化挑战为机遇 不久前，"外贸优品中华行"活动启动，推出一系列务实举措，培育内外贸一体化综合服务平台、线下组 织外贸优品进商超、线上引导电商平台设立相关专区、把更多外贸优品纳入"以旧换新"政策支持范围 等，帮助企业打通出口产品内销堵点，实现国内国际两个市场协调发展、顺畅切换、相互促进。 商务部研究院流通与消费研究所研究员关利欣表示，外贸企业拓内销迎来发展机遇。我国庞大国内市场 优势明显，消费市场潜力持续释放，为企业提供了广阔的创新发展空间；外贸企业生产制造的商品品类 丰富、品质较高，能够满足国内消费者不断升级的个性化、品质化需求；政策对于内外贸一体化发展的 支持力度加大，鼓励外贸企业积极开拓国内市场。 溢达集团曾是一家超大型外贸纺织服装企业，高峰时，年出口衬衫超1亿件。近年来，面对复杂多变的 国际贸易环境，公司快速变阵转型，孵化发展零售男装品牌，转战国内市 ...

2025 年 6 月 4 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 大类资产方面，本周大类资产涨跌互现，纳斯达克指数涨幅居前，十年期美国国债收 益率跌幅居前。 A 股宽基指数方面，本周宽基指数大多下跌，中证 500 涨幅居前， 中小 100 跌幅居前。 行业方面，本周行业涨跌互现，环保涨幅居前，汽车跌幅居前。 【金工】基金抱团加强，PB-ROE-50 组合超额收益显著——金融工程量化月报 20250603 截至 2025 年 5 月 30 日，沪深 300 上涨家数占比指标最近一个月环比上月上升，上 涨家数占比指标高于 50%，市场情绪较高；从动量情绪指标走势来看，近一月快线、 慢线向下，快线处于慢线下方，预计在未来一段时间内将维持谨慎观点。PB-ROE-50 策略相对中证 500、中证 800 和全市场股票池分别获得超额收益 2.39%、1.30%和 1.33%。 【债券】为什么我们不担心资金面？——2025 年 6 月 3 日利率债观察 2025 年 5 月末 10Y 国债收益率为 1.67%，较 4 月末上行了约 5bp。收益率曲线长端 的上行在很大程度上来源于投资者对资金面的担忧：一些投资者担心央 ...

内容概要：赣州市是江西省地级市，同时也是省域副中心城市、Ⅱ型大城市，位于江西省南部。近年 来，赣州市大力实施科技创新赋能行动，制定出台"7510"行动计划及7条制造业重点产业链现代化建设 提升行动方案，在优化创新生态、培育壮大创新主体、建强重大创新平台、开展技术研发攻关等方面不 断革新，赣南老区更具"科技范"，发展的动能更强劲。赣州的千亿级产业、千亿级园区、百亿级企业方 阵不断壮大，形成了现代家居、有色金属和新材料、电子信息、纺织服装4个千亿产业集群。 上市企业：中国稀土（000831）、天音控股（000829）、金力永磁（300748）、孚能科技（688567）、 逸豪新材（301176）、九丰能源（605090）、天键股份（301383）、美克家居（600337）、腾远钴业 （301219）、章源钨业（002378） 相关企业：美克国际家居用品股份有限公司、赣州市大自然家居有限公司、美克数创（赣州）家居智造 有限公司、江西怡良实业有限公司、江西维平创业家具实业有限公司、赣州江钨新型合金材料有限公 司、赣州市裕泰锡业有限公司、赣州市海龙钨钼有限公司、江西省鑫盛钨业有限公司、崇义县银通矿业 有限公司、富联精密 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Bangjie Co., Ltd., is undergoing a change in control due to significant losses in its foray into the photovoltaic industry, leading to a restructuring aimed at improving profitability and addressing debt issues [1][5][8]. Group 1: Change of Control - Shanghai Qishuorui plans to acquire a 5.03% stake in Bangjie Co., Ltd. through the purchase of shares from existing shareholders, making it the controlling shareholder [2][3]. - The share transfer involves 23.1 million shares at a price of 4.18 yuan per share, representing a premium of approximately 5.8% over the previous closing price [3]. - The new controlling shareholder aims to optimize the company's business structure and seek new growth opportunities [1][8]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Bangjie Co., Ltd. has faced declining profitability since entering the photovoltaic sector, with cumulative losses of approximately 760 million yuan over 2023 and 2024 [1][6]. - The company reported revenues of 763 million yuan and 1.106 billion yuan for 2023 and 2024, respectively, but net profits were losses of 88.43 million yuan and 672 million yuan [6][8]. - The photovoltaic segment has been particularly challenging, with a revenue of 452 million yuan in 2024 but a negative gross margin of -32.93% [6][7]. Group 3: Operational Challenges - The subsidiary, Yangzhou Bangjie, reached peak production in April 2024 but subsequently reduced capacity utilization and decided to temporarily halt production due to market pressures [7]. - As of the first quarter of 2025, the photovoltaic business generated no revenue, prompting the need for a change in control to stabilize operations [8]. - The company has faced legal challenges, with ongoing litigation involving approximately 393 million yuan, which is significant compared to its net assets [8].