Group 1: Copper Market Outlook - Copper prices are experiencing a remarkable upward trend, with global demand expected to increase to 2 million tons by 2030 according to the International Copper Study Group [1] - The Oyu Tolgoi copper-gold mine in Mongolia is projected to expand its output significantly, aiming for several hundred thousand tons annually over the next five years [1] - The mine is currently operated by Rio Tinto, which acquired 66% of the Oyu Tolgoi project for $3.1 billion in 2009 [3] Group 2: Operational Challenges - Rio Tinto faces operational challenges due to Mongolia's limited and unstable electricity resources, which increases costs if relying on local supply [3] - The Mongolian government has mandated that Rio Tinto build a local power plant instead of importing electricity from China, further raising operational costs [3] - Additionally, Mongolia has imposed restrictions on direct copper ore exports to China, requiring Rio Tinto to establish local processing facilities, impacting profit margins [5] Group 3: Economic Context of Mongolia - Mongolia's economy is heavily reliant on mineral resource extraction, with limited arable land and underdeveloped infrastructure [8] - The discovery of the world-class Hamaatogai copper-gold mine in 2015 has strengthened Mongolia's position in the global mineral market [8] - Mongolia's strict control over foreign investment, particularly from China, aims to reduce dependency while recognizing China's critical role in its economic development [10] Group 4: Diplomatic and Economic Strategies - Mongolia is diversifying its diplomatic strategies to include economic cooperation with countries like Japan and South Korea, while still acknowledging China's importance [12] - The partnership with Rio Tinto not only brings foreign investment but also promotes infrastructure development in energy and transportation sectors [13] - The future of the Oyu Tolgoi mine is expected to play a significant role in the global copper market, with China remaining a key economic partner for Mongolia [13]

智利国家铜业公司（Codelco）推迟发布业绩报告，以处置矿场事故。 这起事故造成一个新的区域出现致命性坍塌，已经确认一人死亡，另有五人被困地下。 此前，该公司通报称，旗下位于智利的最大铜矿矿场发生地震微动。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Cangge Mining reported a mixed performance in the first half of 2025, with a decrease in revenue but a significant increase in net profit, focusing on potassium and lithium resource development while navigating regulatory challenges [1][2][4]. Financial Performance - The company achieved operating revenue of 1.678 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.74%, while net profit reached 1.8 billion yuan, an increase of 38.8% [1]. - The average selling price of potassium chloride was 2,845 yuan/ton, up 25.57% year-on-year, while the average sales cost was 996 yuan/ton, down 7.36% [2]. - The company reported potassium chloride production of 485,200 tons and sales of 535,900 tons, achieving 48.52% and 56.41% of the annual targets, respectively [2]. Business Operations - Cangge Mining is focusing on high-level development of salt lake resources, emphasizing cost control, quality improvement, and efficiency enhancement [1]. - In the lithium carbonate segment, the company produced 5,170 tons and sold 4,470 tons, meeting 47.00% and 40.64% of the annual targets, respectively [2]. - The average selling price of lithium carbonate was 67,470 yuan/ton, while the average sales cost was 41,478 yuan/ton, leading to a revenue of 267 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 57.90% [2]. Strategic Developments - Cangge Mining's investment in Jilong Copper Industry yielded a profit of 1.264 billion yuan, accounting for 70.22% of the company's net profit, with a year-on-year increase of 47.82% [3]. - The company is advancing the Xizang Mami Cuo project, having received necessary approvals and permits, with construction expected to start in Q3 2025 [3]. - Following a change in control to Zijin Mining, the company has appointed a new board and management team with diverse expertise in mining development and corporate governance [4]. Regulatory Compliance - The company has halted lithium resource development in response to regulatory notifications and is conducting a compliance review [4][5]. - Cangge Mining is actively engaging with regulatory authorities regarding the compliance of its lithium resource development activities and is working on the renewal of mining licenses [5].

智利国家铜业公司对媒体表示，目前救援人员已成功进入部分坍塌区域。 新华财经圣地亚哥8月1日电智利国家铜业公司7月31日说，该公司下属的一座铜矿当天下午因地震发生 坍塌，造成至少1名工人死亡，另有5人失踪。 智利国家铜业公司说，事发铜矿位于智利中部兰卡瓜市，地震引发的铜矿坍塌事故还造成9人受伤。 美国地质调查局地震信息网的消息显示，格林尼治时间7月31日21时34分（北京时间8月1日5时34分）， 距离兰卡瓜约35公里处发生5.0级的浅层地震。 智利是全球最重要的铜矿生产国之一，其铜矿产量占全球供应量的近四分之一。 （文章来源：新华社） ...

Group 1 - Freeport-McMoRan expresses optimism regarding U.S. government policies recognizing the importance of domestic mining [1] - The company highlights the necessity of a strong domestic mining industry to reduce reliance on foreign copper sources, which is critical for defense, infrastructure, and technological innovation [1] - The U.S. government, through a recent announcement, has imposed a 50% tariff on various imported copper products effective August 1 [1] Group 2 - The announcement specifies that semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives will be subject to the new tariffs, while certain copper input materials and scrap are exempt from these tariffs [1]

美国豁免精炼铜关税 伦敦上市铜矿企业股价下跌 金十数据7月31日讯，美国取消对精炼铜的进口关税，导致COMEX铜价重挫约22%。伦敦上市的矿业公 司股价今日下跌。在欧盘早盘交易中，在伦敦上市的智利铜矿商Antofagasta和力拓集团股价下跌4%， 嘉能可股价下跌3.5%。英美资源集团股价下跌2.4%。 ...

（原标题：盘中，直线大跳水！特朗普，突然宣布！） 韩国股市大幅震荡！ 7月31日早间，韩国股市剧烈波动，韩国综合指数一度涨超1%，不过盘中突然直线大跳水，抹去所有涨 幅并转跌。汽车股波动更大，起亚汽车、现代汽车从高点到低点，跳水幅度接近7%。美元兑韩元汇率 也大跌，盘中跌幅一度超过0.6%。 此前，美国总统特朗普称与韩国达成贸易协议，将对韩国征收15%关税。他还宣布，将从8月1日起对印 度输美商品征收25%的关税并实施其他"惩罚"。 另外，特朗普宣布，8月1日起对进口半成品铜等产品征收50%关税。上述消息公布后，在国际期货市场 上，纽约铜价一度暴跌逾18%，铜矿股集体大跌，自由港麦克莫兰跌近10%。 不过，国内期货市场反应平淡，截至发稿，沪铜期货主力合约下跌0.58%。7月31日，香港恒生指数开 盘跌0.77%，恒生科技指数跌0.58%。A股三大指数开盘涨跌不一，沪指跌0.3%，深证成指涨0.05%，创 业板指涨0.65%。有色金属板块多数下跌，北方铜业跌超3%，云南铜业跌超2%。 韩国股市盘中大跳水 7月31日早盘，韩国综合指数开盘涨0.7%，随后涨幅扩大至1%以上，现代汽车盘中一度涨超4%，起亚 汽车一度 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Politburo meeting on July 30 made marginal adjustments to macro - economic policies. Policy is more neutral, emphasizing the implementation of previous supportive measures and long - term layout, with a focus on quality improvement and efficiency enhancement, and industrial upgrading [6]. - The Fed kept interest rates unchanged on July 30, but internal differences were prominent. Powell's hawkish remarks dampened the expectation of an interest rate cut this year, causing the dollar and Treasury yields to rise sharply, and the stock market and gold prices to fluctuate [9]. - Due to weak fundamentals and high downstream inventory, pulp is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly, and reverse arbitrage operations can be considered [10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Metals - **Precious Metals (Gold and Silver)** - Gold: FOMC meeting released hawkish expectations, with a trend intensity of - 1. Gold prices such as Comex Gold 2510 and London Gold showed corresponding fluctuations [9][16][21]. - Silver: Prices fell from high levels, with a trend intensity of - 1. Comex Silver 2510 dropped by 3.15% [16][21]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The U.S. copper import tariff was implemented, causing prices to be under pressure, with a trend intensity of 0. Trump imposed a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products, and the price of New York copper tumbled 20% [23][25]. - **Zinc**: Prices fluctuated narrowly, with a trend intensity of - 1. The U.S. Q2 GDP growth was better than expected, and Trump threatened to impose tariffs on India [26][28]. - **Lead**: Inventory increased, and prices were under pressure, with a trend intensity of 0. The inventory of LME lead increased by 6025 tons [29][30]. - **Tin**: Prices fluctuated within a range, with a trend intensity of - 1. The price of SMM 1 tin ingots rose by 3500 yuan/ton [32][36]. - **Aluminum and Related Products** - Aluminum: Prices fluctuated slightly, with a trend intensity of 0. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 51.40 million tons [38][39]. - Alumina: Prices weakened, with a trend intensity of - 1. The price of the Shanghai - bonded area premium remained unchanged [38][39]. - Casting Aluminum Alloy: It followed the trend of electrolytic aluminum, with a trend intensity of 0. The inventory of三地 increased by 291 tons [38][39]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel** - Nickel: Macroeconomic expectations determined the direction, and fundamentals limited the elasticity, with a trend intensity of 0. Canada's Ontario Province may stop exporting nickel to the U.S. [40][44]. - Stainless Steel: Macroeconomic sentiment dominated the marginal trend, and the real - world situation needed to be improved, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of 304/2B - SS decreased by 50 [40][44]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Prices fluctuated widely, and the impact at the mine end had not materialized, with a trend intensity of - 1. The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price dropped by 211 yuan/ton [45][47]. Energy and Chemicals - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon** - Industrial Silicon: Market sentiment weakened, with a trend intensity of - 1. The U.S. partially cancelled tariffs on certain small solar equipment imported from China [48][50]. - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes, with a trend intensity of - 1. The price of polysilicon - N - type re - feedstock remained unchanged [48][50]. - **Other Chemicals** - **Pulp**: It was expected to fluctuate weakly, with a high attention index of ★★★★. The profit of the paper and paper products industry from January to June 2025 decreased by 21.4% year - on - year [10][11]. - **Coal - related Products (Coke, Coking Coal, and Steam Coal)** - Coke: Market sentiment was realized, and prices fluctuated widely. - Coking Coal: Market sentiment was realized, and prices fluctuated widely. - Steam Coal: Daily consumption recovered, and prices stabilized in a fluctuating manner. - **Petrochemical Products (PTA, MEG, etc.)** - PTA: Cost provided support, and month - spread positive arbitrage was recommended. - MEG: The unilateral trend remained weak, and month - spread reverse arbitrage was recommended. Building Materials - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro - economic expectations, prices fluctuated strongly, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of imported ore such as PB (61.5%) decreased by 8 yuan/ton [51]. - **Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil)** - Rebar: Affected by macro - economic sentiment, prices fluctuated widely, with a trend intensity of 0. The output of rebar increased by 2.9 million tons in the week of July 24 [55][57]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: Affected by macro - economic sentiment, prices fluctuated widely, with a trend intensity of 0. The output of hot - rolled coil decreased by 3.65 million tons in the week of July 24 [55][57]. - **Silicon - based Alloys (Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon)** - Silicon Ferrosilicon: Affected by macro - economic sentiment, prices fluctuated weakly, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of silicon ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia increased by 100 yuan/ton [59][62]. - Manganese Silicon: Affected by macro - economic sentiment, prices fluctuated weakly, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of manganese ore Mn44 block increased by 0.5 yuan/ton degree [59][62].

智利不会报复美国关税。（Emol） 智利财长预计，将获得（美国总统特朗普的）铜关税豁免。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Mongolia has officially handed over the Oyu Tolgoi copper mine to Australian company Rio Tinto, with a contract stipulating that the copper cannot be sold directly or indirectly to China, despite China's proximity and being the largest copper consumer globally [1][3]. Group 1: Copper Mine Details - The Oyu Tolgoi mine has copper reserves of 31.1 million tons, along with 1,328 tons of gold and 7,600 tons of silver [4]. - The mine is located only 80 kilometers from the Chinese border, yet Mongolia plans to transport the copper 1,000 kilometers north to Russia before shipping it to Australia [3]. Group 2: Mongolia's Economic Strategy - Mongolia aims to reduce its reliance on China by pursuing a "third neighbor" strategy, which involves selling copper to other markets instead of its largest customer [3][5]. - Approximately one-third of Mongolia's GDP relies on exports, with a significant portion of these exports going to China, including coal, copper, and livestock [5]. Group 3: China's Response and Market Dynamics - In the first five months of this year, China's copper concentrate imports increased by 9% year-on-year, primarily sourced from Chile, Peru, and the Democratic Republic of Congo, with Mongolian copper accounting for only 3% of total imports [6]. - Chinese companies are increasingly investing in copper mines in South America and Africa, reducing dependence on Mongolian copper [6]. Group 4: Future Implications - There is skepticism about Mongolia's ability to maintain its stance, as the economic reality may force it to reconsider selling to China, potentially leading to indirect sales through other countries [6][7]. - The lack of infrastructure and investment in Mongolia raises questions about its capability to independently manage and profit from the mine without Chinese involvement [8].