6月4日盘中，焦炭期货主力合约遭遇一波急速上涨，最高上探至1328.0元。截止发稿，焦炭主力合约报 1318.5元，涨幅1.93%。 供应端，焦炭二轮提降落地，焦企利润进一步收缩，但因成本同步下降，部分企业仍处盈利区间，整体 供应持稳。需求端，铁水产量连续下滑，需求支撑逐渐弱化。上游库存压力尚可，下游钢厂以消耗前期 原料库存为主、补库积极性不佳，焦企焦炭库存由降转增。总体来看，当前焦炭市场基本面尚可，淡季 需求预期疲软叠加成本拖累，焦炭价格易跌难涨。 瑞达期货：焦炭震荡偏弱运行对待 美国总统特朗普表示，6月4日起，将把钢铁和铝的进口关税从25%提高至50%，关税扰动，市场情绪反 复。基本面，原料端供应宽松拖累成本支撑，铁水产量高位回落。利润方面，本期全国30家独立焦化厂 平均吨焦亏损39元/吨。技术方面，4小时周期K线位于20和60均线下方，操作上，震荡偏弱运行对待， 请投资者注意风险控制。 供应方面，主产区焦企开工整体维持稳定，少数企业因环保检查及出货压力小幅调整生产节奏，但产能 释放未见显著收缩。需求方面，钢厂延续原料低库存策略，采购积极性偏弱，叠加铁水产量见顶回落， 焦炭刚需边际走弱，市场供强需弱格局深 ...

| 钢材产业期现日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 問敏波 | Z0010559 | 2025年6月3日 | | | | | | | | | | | 钢材价格及价差 | 品种 | 某美 | 现值 | 涨跌 | 单位 | 即值 | | | | | | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3120 | 3120 | O | 153 | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3160 | 3160 | O | 193 | | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3230 | 3250 | -20 | 263 | 螺纹钢05合约 | 2973 | 3003 | 147 | -30 | | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 2961 | 2978 | -17 | ।ਟੋਰੇ | 螺纹钢01合约 | 153 | 2967 | 2982 | -18 | | | | 元/吨 | 热卷现货(华东) | 3170 | 3200 | 88 | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the reports. Core Views Steel - Although the apparent demand has recovered, molten iron production has been decreasing, and the output of finished steel products will follow suit. With the expectation of weakening demand, the apparent demand is likely to decline rather than increase in the future. Steel prices have been falling, reflecting the negative feedback logic under the expectation of declining demand. The continuous decline in molten iron production will suppress iron ore prices. - The direct export of steel will help digest production, and the short - term inventory pressure is not significant, which supports the steel production at a relatively high level. However, the cost support is weak, and the decline in carbon elements has dragged down steel prices. Considering the worse demand in the second half of the year, the overall trend is bearish. The iron ore is still in the destocking phase, and its price is relatively resilient, so the negative feedback trading may fluctuate. Once iron ore starts to accumulate inventory, the downward space for steel prices will expand [1]. Iron Ore - Last week, the global iron ore shipments decreased slightly, mainly due to the decline in shipments from Brazil and non - Australia and Brazil regions. The arrival volume remained at a relatively low level. On the demand side, molten iron production continued to decline, and the profitability of steel mills also decreased slightly due to the marginal weakening of downstream demand in the off - season. - In terms of inventory, the port inventory continued to decline as the ore handling volume remained at a high level in the same period of history and the arrival volume was low in recent weeks. The steel mill inventory decreased significantly, mainly in large - scale steel mills. - Looking ahead, the terminal demand for finished products faces the risk of weakening in the off - season, but there is still some resilience. It is expected that the decline in molten iron production will be limited. Overseas mines will increase shipments to meet the fiscal year target, and the arrival peak has not yet come, so the supply pressure of iron ore will increase. In the short term, there is obvious resistance above the iron ore price, but the risk of inventory accumulation is limited due to the resilience of terminal demand. It is expected that the price will fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the change in molten iron production [3]. Coke - Last week, the coke futures continued to break through the support level. On the spot side, the second round of price cuts for coke was implemented on May 28, and there are expectations of two or more rounds of price cuts in the future considering the weak situation of coking coal. - On the supply side, due to the decline in downstream molten iron production and the slowdown in coke sales, the coke production decreased slightly, and the coking profit improved due to the concession of coking coal prices. On the demand side, the molten iron production remained above 240,000 tons per day in May and decreased slightly last week, and the blast furnace operation rate showed signs of peaking. - In terms of inventory, the coke inventory in coking plants decreased slightly, the port inventory continued to decline, and the steel mill inventory increased slightly. The downstream replenishment demand has weakened due to the general caution in the market. It is recommended to short the coke 2509 contract after a rebound and use the strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coke (equal value) [4]. Coking Coal - Last week, the coking coal futures continued to break through the support level. On the spot side, coking coal prices continued to decline. The futures market was more pessimistic than the spot market, showing a deep discount structure, with high hedging pressure and weak willingness of long - position holders to support the price. - The market auction was cold, and the transaction prices of various coal types decreased slightly. The supply - demand imbalance is difficult to reverse in the short term. On the supply side, the production of domestic coal mines decreased slightly but remained at a relatively high level. The price of Mongolian coal broke through the support level, and the import profit of seaborne coal remained negative, with prices stable or slightly decreasing. - On the demand side, the coking plant operation rate decreased slightly, and the downstream blast furnace molten iron production showed signs of peaking. Downstream users mainly replenished inventory on a need - to - basis. As the peak season of steel production is approaching the end, the demand may decline. The coal mine inventory is high, with pressure to reduce prices for sales, and the port inventory has increased again, while the downstream inventory is at a low level. It is recommended to short the coking coal 2509 contract after a rebound and use the strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal (equal value) [4]. Ferrosilicon - On the supply side, due to the protection of a large factory in Inner Mongolia, the ferrosilicon production continued to shrink. With the continuous decline in spot prices, the losses of manufacturers increased, and the supply pressure remained. The cost may also decline, and the valuation continued to decrease. - On the demand side, the molten iron production showed a downward trend, and the downstream demand faced marginal weakening in the off - season. The profitability of steel mills decreased slightly. In terms of exports, the export profit of ferrosilicon increased slightly as the domestic price decreased faster than the overseas price, and the export volume remained stable. - In June - July, the electricity price is expected to be adjusted downward during the power spot settlement pilot period, and the overall cost may bottom out. Looking ahead, the supply of ferrosilicon is expected to be weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [5]. Silicomanganese - The global manganese ore shipments decreased slightly last week, and the floating inventory was concentrated in South Africa and Ghana mines. The future arrival volume of manganese ore will remain normal. In June - July, the electricity price is expected to be adjusted downward during the power spot settlement pilot period, and the overall cost may bottom out. - On the supply side, the production in Inner Mongolia increased significantly recently, and the profitability of manufacturers decreased slightly. On the demand side, the molten iron production showed a downward trend, and the downstream demand faced marginal weakening in the off - season. The demand for non - steel products, such as metal iron, was also weak. - The contradiction in the silicomanganese market is limited, but there is still a risk of cost decline. Coupled with the negative feedback expectation of demand in the off - season in the black - series market, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [5]. Summary by Directory Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - The prices of various steel products showed different trends. For example, the price of some steel products remained unchanged, while others increased or decreased. The price of rebar 05 contract increased by 147 yuan/ton, and the price of hot - rolled coil 05 contract decreased by 41 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The cost and profit of different steel products also varied. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar increased by 104 yuan/ton, and the profit of East China hot - rolled coil was 26 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average molten iron output remained unchanged at 243.6 tons. The output of five major steel products decreased by 60,000 tons, and the inventory of five major steel products decreased by 329,000 tons [1]. Demand - The apparent demand for steel products showed some recovery. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 92,000 tons, and the apparent demand for rebar increased by 16,000 tons [1]. Iron Ore Price and Spreads - The prices of various iron ore varieties decreased slightly. The price of PB powder decreased by 4.4 yuan/ton, and the 09 - contract basis of PB powder decreased by 55.9 yuan/ton [3]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 120,000 tons, and the global shipment volume decreased by 159,100 tons [3]. Demand - The daily average molten iron production of 247 steel mills decreased by 1,700 tons, and the national pig iron monthly output decreased by 271,100 tons [3]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 7,800 tons, and the inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 171,200 tons [3]. Coke Price and Spreads - The price of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged, and the price of coke 09 contract decreased by 24 yuan/ton [4]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.5 tons, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 tons [4]. Demand - The molten iron production of 247 steel mills decreased by 1,700 tons [4]. Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased by 3,400 tons, the inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 8,100 tons, and the inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 5,700 tons [4]. Coking Coal Price and Spreads - The price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse receipt) remained unchanged, and the price of coking coal (Mongolian warehouse receipt) decreased by 5 yuan/ton [4]. Supply - The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 1,600 tons, and the clean coal output decreased by 1,400 tons [4]. Demand - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.5 tons, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 tons [4]. Inventory - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines increased by 20,300 tons, the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 19,400 tons, and the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 12,000 tons [4]. Ferrosilicon Price - The price of ferrosilicon 72%FeSi in Ningxia decreased by 50 yuan/ton, and the price of ferrosilicon 72%FeSi in Gansu decreased by 50 yuan/ton [5]. Cost and Profit - The production cost in Guangxi decreased by 27 yuan/ton, and the production profit in Inner Mongolia decreased by 20 yuan/ton [5]. Supply - The ferrosilicon production decreased by 0.4 tons, and the production enterprise operation rate remained unchanged [5]. Demand - The ferrosilicon demand remained unchanged, and the steel - making demand decreased slightly [5]. Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample enterprises increased by 0.1 tons, and the average available days of downstream ferrosilicon decreased by 1.6 days [5]. Silicomanganese Price - The price of silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 in Ningxia decreased by 20 yuan/ton, and the price of silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 in Guizhou decreased by 20 yuan/ton [5]. Cost and Profit - The production cost in Inner Mongolia remained unchanged, and the production profit in Inner Mongolia decreased by 20 yuan/ton [5]. Supply - The silicomanganese production increased by 0.5 tons, and the operation rate increased by 2.9% [5]. Demand - The silicomanganese demand increased by 0.1 tons, and the steel - making demand increased slightly [5]. Inventory - The inventory of 63 sample enterprises decreased by 1.5 tons, and the average available days of silicomanganese decreased by 0.2 days [5].

焦炭日报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/6/3 免责声明 建议及入市依据，您应当自主做出期货交易决策，独立承担期货交易后果，凡据此入市者，我司不承担任何责任。我司在为您提供服务时已最大程度避免与您产生利益冲突。未经我司 授权，不得随意转载、复制、传播本网站中所有研究分析报告、行情分析视频等全部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力造成的全部或部分信息 中断、延迟、遗漏、误导或造成资料传输或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等，我司均不承担任何责任。 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 同比 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 同比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 山西准一湿熄 | 1283.46 | 0.00 | -54.61 | -109.23 | -34.18% 高炉开工率 | 90.69 | | -0.63 | -1.31 | 2.43% | | 河北准一湿熄 | 1525.00 | 0.00 | -55.00 | -1 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall market shows a mixed picture with different commodities experiencing various trends such as震荡 (side - ways movement), decline, or potential for price adjustments. Different trading strategies are recommended for each commodity based on their specific market conditions [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Indexes have stable lower support but face high upper - breakthrough pressure. Trading volume is low, and there is no clear trend. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: In the short - term, 10 - year Treasury bond rates may fluctuate between 1.65% - 1.7%, and 30 - year rates between 1.85% - 1.95%. The market is in a narrow - range震荡, waiting for fundamental guidance. Unilateral strategies suggest waiting and observing, while paying attention to high - frequency economic data and fund - flow dynamics. For the 2509 contract, a positive arbitrage strategy is recommended [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold fails to continue its upward trend due to a lack of clear drivers and may maintain a震荡 pattern. A strategy of selling out - of - the - money gold option straddles can be used to earn time value. Silver follows gold's fluctuations, and it is recommended to sell relatively out - of - the - money call options [2]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. Attention should be paid to the decline in apparent demand. Steel mill maintenance is increasing, and hot metal production is falling from its peak. For the RB2510 contract, unilateral operations are on hold, and attention is given to the strategy of going long on materials and short on raw materials [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Attention is paid to the support around 670 - 680 [2]. - **Coke**: The second round of coke price cuts by major steel mills was implemented on the 28th. There is still a possibility of further price cuts, and it is recommended to short the J2509 contract at an appropriate time [2]. - **Coking Coal**: The market auction is continuously cold, coal mine production is at a high level, and inventory is high. There is still a possibility of price decline, and it is recommended to short the JM2509 contract [2]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The macro - situation and supply - increase expectations are in a stalemate, and the market is waiting for the implementation of OPEC's production - increase policy. The WTI is expected to fluctuate between [59, 69], Brent between [61, 71], and SC between [440, 500]. For arbitrage, attention is paid to the INE month - spread rebound opportunities [2]. - **Urea**: Under high - supply pressure, the market is searching for a bottom in a震荡 pattern. It is recommended to use a medium - to - long - term band trading strategy and a short - term unilateral bearish strategy. The main contract's fluctuation range is adjusted to around [1800, 1900] [2]. - **PX**: Supply - demand conditions are marginally weakening, but the spot market is tight, so there is support at low levels. In the short - term, it will震荡 between 6500 - 6800. A light - position reverse arbitrage for PX9 - 1 can be tried, and the PX - SC spread can be shorted when it is high [2]. - **PTA**: Supply - demand conditions are marginally weakening, but raw - material support is strong. In the short - term, it will震荡 between 4600 - 4800, and a reverse arbitrage for TA9 - 1 is recommended [2]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: Supported by pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking, attention is paid to the support at 13500 [2]. - **Corn**: The market price will震荡 around 2320 in the short - term [2]. - **Oils and Fats**: There are both bullish and bearish factors, and oils and fats are in a narrow - range震荡. Palm oil may reach 8100 in the short - term [2]. - **Sugar**: Overseas supply is expected to be loose. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct bearish trading on rebounds [2]. - **Cotton**: The downstream market remains weak, and bearish trading on rebounds is recommended [2]. Special Commodities - **Glass**: Market sentiment has weakened again. Attention is paid to the support at the 1000 - point level for the FG2509 contract [2]. - **Rubber**: With a weak fundamental outlook, the RU contract has increased positions and declined. Short positions should be held, and attention is paid to the support around 13000 [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon futures are still falling under high - supply pressure, and the fundamentals remain bearish [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Polysilicon futures have stabilized and are in a震荡 pattern. If there are long positions, hold them cautiously [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is in a weak震荡 adjustment, and the main contract is expected to trade between 58,000 - 62,000 [2].

5月26日唐山市场主流钢厂计划对湿熄焦炭价格下调50元/吨、干熄焦下调55元/吨，2025年5月28日零点 执行。 机构观点 宁证期货：整体来看，焦炭价格近期支撑较弱。铁水已开启下降周期，钢厂采购情绪较弱，但焦企暂无 减产动作，供应稳定，钢厂对焦炭价格继续下调有较强的预期。同时来自原料煤的价格持续下降，给出 了焦炭充足的下降空间。预计第二轮提降将在月底前完成，本轮降价周期预计存在两到三轮的空间，若 煤价在6月继续出现较大幅度下降，存在四轮降价的可能。 长江期货：供应方面，主产区焦企维持正常生产节奏，部分区域受利润空间收窄影响保持限产力度，但 整体产能释放相对平稳。库存方面，多数焦企维持低库存运行状态，但受钢厂采购节奏放缓影响，部分 资源开始出现销售压力，品质分化导致市场议价空间显现。需求方面，钢厂高炉检修范围扩大导致刚需 边际回落，叠加钢价走弱背景下钢厂利润承压，原料采购维持低库存策略，主流钢厂已开启第二轮提 降。市场情绪方面，焦钢博弈加剧导致看跌预期升温，贸易环节操作趋于谨慎。综合来看，焦炭市场短 期面临供需双向承压格局，后续需重点关注成材终端需求复苏节奏及钢厂利润修复情况。 5月28日，焦炭期货主力合约现 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive analysis of various asset classes and industries. It maintains the view of more volatility and a preference for safe - haven assets overseas, and a structural market in China. It suggests strategic allocation of gold and non - US dollar assets. Overseas, the US inflation expectation structure is stable with short - term fundamental resilience, while in China, the growth - stabilizing policies maintain their stance, and the export resilience and tariff relaxation support the Q2 economic growth. Different industries and asset classes are expected to show different trends, mostly in a state of oscillation [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: Tariff and US debt concerns are the main drivers of market volatility in May. The EU has requested an extension of the tariff negotiation deadline to July 9, which was approved by President Trump. The US House of Representatives passed a large - scale tax - cut and spending bill, increasing concerns about US debt. US retail sales in April increased slightly by 0.1%, and the May manufacturing and service PMIs were better than expected [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: April's domestic economic data showed resilience, and policy expectations were generally stable. The China - ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 negotiation was completed. The 1 - year and 5 - year - plus LPRs were both cut by 10BP in May, and major state - owned banks lowered deposit rates. Investment and consumption growth in April slightly slowed down but remained resilient. Fixed - asset investment from January to April increased by 4.0% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail总额 increased by 5.1% year - on - year in April [6]. - **Asset View**: In the large - scale asset category, the report maintains the view of more volatility and a preference for safe - haven assets overseas and a structural market in China. It suggests strategic allocation of gold and non - US dollar assets. In the overseas market, the US inflation expectation structure is stable, and the short - term fundamentals are resilient. In the Chinese market, the growth - stabilizing policies maintain their stance, and the export resilience and tariff relaxation support the Q2 economic growth. Bonds have allocation value after the capital pressure eases, and stocks and commodities are expected to oscillate in the short term [6]. 3.2 View Highlights Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: The proportion of small - cap and micro - cap trading volume shows a downward trend, and the stock index discount is converging, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: The short - term market sentiment is positive, and attention should be paid to the option market liquidity, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market may continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to changes in the capital market and policy expectations, with an expected oscillation [7]. Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: The progress of China - US negotiations exceeded expectations, and precious metals continued to adjust in the short term. Attention should be paid to Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy, with an expected oscillation [7]. Shipping - **Container Shipping on the European Route**: Attention should be paid to the game between the peak - season expectation and the implementation of price increases. The short - term trend is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to tariff policies and shipping company pricing strategies [7]. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: Demand continues to weaken, and both futures and spot prices are falling. Attention should be paid to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The arrival of shipments has been continuously low, and port inventories have decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to overseas mine production and shipments, domestic molten iron production, weather factors, and port inventory changes, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Coke**: The second - round price cut has started, and coke enterprises are having difficulty in shipping. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment, with an expected oscillation and decline [7]. - **Coking Coal**: The pressure to reduce inventory is increasing, and market sentiment is low. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment, with an expected oscillation and decline [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and copper prices oscillate at a high level. Attention should be paid to supply disruptions, domestic policy surprises, the Fed's less - dovish than expected stance, and weaker - than - expected domestic demand recovery, with an expected oscillation and increase [7]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The event of revoking mining licenses has not been finalized, and the aluminum oxide market oscillates at a high level. Attention should be paid to the failure of ore production to resume as expected, the over - expected resumption of electrolytic aluminum production, and extreme market trends, with an expected oscillation and decline [7]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The expectation of production increase is strengthened, and oil prices continue to face pressure. Attention should be paid to OPEC + production policies, the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and the US sanctions on Iran, with an expected oscillation and decline [9]. - **LPG**: Demand continues to weaken, and LPG maintains a weak oscillation. Attention should be paid to the cost progress of crude oil and overseas propane, with an expected oscillation and decline [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Concerns about tariffs have subsided, and the over - expected scale of EG maintenance has boosted futures prices. Attention should be paid to the terminal demand for ethylene glycol, with an expected oscillation and increase [9]. Agriculture - **Livestock and Poultry**: The spot price of pigs stopped falling before the festival, but the futures market remained weak. Attention should be paid to breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies, with an expected oscillation and decline [9]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices oscillate slightly. Attention should be paid to demand and production, with an expected oscillation [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Yesterday, steel prices were still weak with significant declines. The rebar price fell below the valley - electricity cost, but blast - furnace profits remained positive. Terminal orders decreased, affecting cold - rolled steel inventories. After the tariff reduction in May, demand recovered, and the April rush for re - export trade also supported demand. Short - term steel inventory pressure is expected to be low, supporting high production levels. However, steel prices are affected by the decline of carbon elements and the seasonal decline of hot - metal production. Negative - feedback trading may be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Yesterday, the iron ore 09 contract fell weakly. This week, global iron ore shipments decreased slightly, and arrivals were at a relatively low level. On the demand side, hot - metal production declined from its peak, and direct and indirect export orders for finished products were below expectations. The market is trading the negative - feedback expectation in advance. Although the terminal demand for finished products may weaken in the off - season, it still has some resilience. The decline of hot - metal production is limited. Overseas mines are starting to boost shipments, and the supply pressure will increase. Short - term iron ore prices are under pressure, and attention should be paid to the support around 670 - 680 [4]. Coke Industry - Yesterday, coke futures continued to fluctuate and adjust. The spot price of coke has been lowered twice, and there are still 1 - 2 rounds of expected price cuts. On the supply side, due to the decline of downstream hot - metal production, coke enterprises' shipments slowed down, but production increased slightly, and coking profits improved. On the demand side, hot - metal production remained above 240,000 tons per day in May but declined slightly last week, and blast - furnace开工率 has shown signs of peaking. In terms of inventory, coking plants' inventories are accumulating, port inventories are slightly decreasing, and steel mills' inventories are decreasing. It is recommended to short the coke 2509 contract after a rebound and stop the profit of the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coke [6]. Coking Coal Industry - Yesterday, coking coal futures continued to fluctuate and adjust. The spot price of coking coal has been falling, and the futures market has a deep - discount structure with high hedging pressure. The supply is abundant, with high domestic coal production and weak imported coal prices. The demand side shows that coking production is increasing slightly, but downstream hot - metal production may have peaked. Coal mines' inventories are accumulating, and downstream inventories are at a low level. It is recommended to short the coking coal 2509 contract after a rebound and stop the profit of the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coking coal [6]. Ferrosilicon Industry - Yesterday, the ferrosilicon futures main contract fell. An Inner Mongolia large - scale factory partially shut down furnaces, reducing daily production. Supply pressure has been relieved after previous production cuts, but inventories are still at a medium - high level. Some producers are suffering losses and reducing production. On the demand side, hot - metal production declined this week, and the demand for ferrosilicon is limited. The cost of semi - coke is weakly stable. In the future, the supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon has been alleviated, but short - term demand lacks support, and costs may decline, so the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [7]. Ferromanganese Industry - Yesterday, the ferromanganese futures main contract fluctuated weakly. In Inner Mongolia, some factories are resuming production, and the supply pressure is concentrated in the northern region. On the demand side, hot - metal production is declining, and the market is trading the negative - feedback expectation. The overall finished products are in the process of de - stocking, but the cold - rolled pressure is still large. Manganese ore prices are under pressure due to high future arrivals. In the future, the short - term supply pressure of ferromanganese is increasing, and the price is expected to be weak [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices all declined. For example, rebar spot in East China decreased from 3150 to 3130 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil spot in East China decreased from 3230 to 3200 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices decreased by 20 yuan/ton, and the cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar decreased by 36 yuan/ton. The profits of hot - rolled coils in East, North, and South China all decreased [1]. Production - The daily average hot - metal production decreased by 1.2 to 243.6 tons, a decrease of 0.5%. The production of five major steel products increased by 4.1 to 872.4 tons, an increase of 0.5%. Rebar production increased by 4.9 to 231.5 tons, an increase of 2.2%, while hot - rolled coil production decreased by 6.3 to 305.7 tons, a decrease of 2.0% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 32.1 to 1398.5 tons, a decrease of 2.2%. Rebar inventory decreased by 15.7 to 604.2 tons, a decrease of 2.5%, and hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 7.4 to 340.2 tons, a decrease of 2.1% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 0.7 to 10.2 tons, an increase of 6.8%. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 9.2 to 904.6 tons, a decrease of 1.0%. The apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils also decreased [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased, and the 09 - contract basis of various iron ore powders also decreased significantly. For example, the 09 - contract basis of PB powder decreased from 131.7 to 77.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 41.5% [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of various iron ore powders at Rizhao Port decreased, and the prices of the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap and the Platts 62% Fe also decreased [4]. Supply - The global weekly iron ore shipments increased by 318.8 to 3347.8 tons, an increase of 10.5%, but the weekly arrivals decreased by 83.3 to 2271.3 tons, a decrease of 3.5% [4]. Demand - The 45 - port average daily ore - removal volume increased by 3.2 to 327.1 tons, an increase of 1.0%. The national monthly crude - steel production decreased by 682.2 to 8601 tons, a decrease of 7.3% [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port iron ore inventory decreased by 129.0 to 13858.79 tons, a decrease of 0.9%. The 247 - steel - mill imported - ore inventory decreased by 35.7 to 8925.5 tons, a decrease of 0.4% [4]. Coke Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - Coke futures prices decreased. The coke 09 contract decreased from 1375 to 1364 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.8%, and the coke 01 contract decreased from 1391 to 1388 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.2%. The coking profit decreased by 22 to - 15 yuan/ton, a decrease of 146.7% [6]. Upstream Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The prices of coking coal decreased. The coking coal (Shanxi warehouse - receipt) decreased from 1030 to 1000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.9% [6]. Supply - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.1 to 67.3 tons, an increase of 0.2%, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills remained unchanged [6]. Demand - The 247 - steel - mill hot - metal production decreased by 1.2 to 243.6 tons, a decrease of 0.5% [6]. Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 1.7 to 984.9 tons, an increase of 0.2%. The coking - plant inventory increased by 9.0 to 103.3 tons, an increase of 9.5%, the steel - mill inventory decreased by 3.2 to 660.6 tons, a decrease of 0.5%, and the port inventory decreased by 4.1 to 221.0 tons, a decrease of 1.8% [6]. Coke Supply - Demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap increased by 0.6 to - 1.4 tons, an increase of 40.0% [6]. Coking Coal Industry Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - Coking coal futures prices decreased. The coking coal 09 contract decreased from 800 to 799.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.12%, and the coking coal 01 contract decreased from 813 to 815 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.21%. The sample coal - mine profit decreased by 17 to 382 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.3% [6]. Overseas Coal Prices - The Australian Peak Downs coking - coal arrival price remained unchanged, while the Jingtang Port Australian main - coking - coal ex - warehouse price increased by 160 to 1390 yuan/ton, an increase of 13.0% [6]. Supply - The weekly raw - coal production of Fenwei sample coal mines increased by 2.8 to 895.8 tons, an increase of 0.3%, and the weekly clean - coal production increased by 1.9 to 459.2 tons, an increase of 0.4% [6]. Demand - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.1 to 67.3 tons, an increase of 0.2%, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills remained unchanged [6]. Inventory - The Fenwei coal - mine clean - coal inventory increased by 19.4 to 230.3 tons, an increase of 9.2%. The all - sample coking - plant coking - coal inventory decreased by 19.2 to 865.7 tons, a decrease of 2.2%, and the port inventory decreased by 5.1 to 301.0 tons, a decrease of 1.7% [6]. Ferrosilicon Industry Ferrosilicon Spot Prices and Spreads - The ferrosilicon futures main - contract price decreased from 5506 to 5452 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.0%. The spot prices of ferrosilicon in various regions also decreased [7]. Cost and Profit - The production costs of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, and Ningxia remained unchanged, but the production profits decreased. The production profit in Inner Mongolia decreased by 30 to - 156 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23.8% [7]. Supply - The weekly ferrosilicon production decreased by 0.5 to 8.9 tons, a decrease of 4.9%, and the production - enterprise operating rate decreased by 0.8 to 30.4%, a decrease of 2.6% [7]. Demand - The weekly ferrosilicon demand increased by 0.0 to 2.1 tons, an increase of 1.7%. The 247 - steel - mill average daily hot - metal production decreased by 1.2 to 243.6 tons, a decrease of 0.5% [7]. Inventory - The 60 - sample - enterprise ferrosilicon inventory increased by 0.1 to 7.5 tons, an increase of 1.9%, and the downstream average available days decreased by 0.2 to 15.2 days, a decrease of 1.6% [7]. Ferromanganese Industry Ferromanganese Spot Prices and Spreads - The ferromanganese futures main - contract price decreased from 5668 to 5616 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.9%. The spot prices of ferromanganese in various regions also decreased [7]. Cost and Profit - The prices of manganese ores in Tianjin Port decreased. The production costs of ferromanganese in Inner Mongolia and Guangxi decreased, and the production profit in Inner Mongolia decreased by 32.8 to - 203.4 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19.2% [7]. Manganese Ore Supply - The weekly manganese - ore shipments decreased by 16.5 to 68.6 tons, a decrease of 19.4%, but the weekly arrivals increased by 3.3 to 54.3 tons, an increase of 6.5% [7]. Manganese Ore Inventory - The weekly manganese - ore port inventory increased by 23.2 to 418.0 tons, an increase of 5.9% [7]. Supply - The weekly ferromanganese production increased by 0.2 to 16.5 tons, an increase of 1.5%, and the operating rate increased by 0.6 to 34.2%, an increase of 1.74% [7]. Demand - The ferromanganese demand increased by 0.1 to 12.7 tons, an increase of 0.8%. The ferromanganese procurement volume of Hebei Iron and Steel Group increased by 0.0 to 1.2 tons, an increase of 1.8% [7]. Inventory - The 63 - sample - enterprise ferromanganese inventory decreased by 0.6 to 20.1 tons, a decrease of 2.9%, and the average available days decreased by 1.2 to 15 days, a decrease of 7.0% [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Views - The market is affected by various factors, leading to different trends in different varieties. For example, the stock index shows a pattern of stable lower - support and high upper - breakthrough pressure; the bond market is in a narrow - range shock waiting for fundamental guidance; precious metals are affected by multiple factors and show a shock or upward - potential trend; and different industrial and agricultural products have their own supply - demand and price trends [2]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - IF2506, IH2506, IC2506, IM2506: The index has stable lower support and high upper - breakthrough pressure. TMT is warming up, and A - shares are in a shrinking shock. It is recommended to sell put options near the previous low support level to earn the premium [2]. Bond Futures - T2506, TF2506, TS2506, TL2506: In the short - term information window period, the bond futures are in a narrow - range shock. The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate in the range of 1.65% - 1.7%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate in the range of 1.85% - 1.95%. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to high - frequency economic data and capital - market dynamics [2]. Precious Metals - AU2508, AG2508: Gold may break through $3400 (795 yuan) or maintain a shock trend. Silver follows gold's fluctuations, and the resistance near the previous high of $33.5 (8300 yuan) is strengthened [2]. Shipping Index - EC2508 (European Line): Airlines are reducing prices, and the main contract is falling. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously [2]. Steel - RB2510: Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. It is recommended to pay attention to the long - hot - rolled - coil and short - coke and long - hot - rolled - coil and short - coking - coal arbitrage operations [2]. Iron Ore - I2509: It is in a range - bound shock, with the range referring to 700 - 745 [2]. Coke - J2509: Mainstream steel mills are initiating the second round of coke price cuts, which are expected to be implemented on the 28th. Coke prices may still be cut. It is recommended to consider long - hot - rolled - coil and short - coke operations [2]. Coking Coal - JM2509: The market auction is cold, coal mine production and inventory are at high levels, and prices are still likely to fall. It is recommended to consider long - hot - rolled - coil and short - coking - coal operations [2]. Silicon Iron - SF507: Supply - demand is marginally improving, and costs are moving down. It is in a range - bound shock, with the range referring to 5500 - 5800. It is recommended to try shorting at high levels, with the upper pressure referring to around 5900 [2]. Copper - CU2507: There are sudden disturbances in the copper mine supply. Pay attention to the sustainability of the "strong reality". The main contract pays attention to the pressure level of 78000 - 79000 [2]. Zinc - ZN2507: Social inventory is decreasing again, and the fundamentals change little. The market is in a shock [2]. Nickel - NI2506: The market is in a narrow - range shock, with cost support and supply - demand contradictions still existing. The main contract refers to 122000 - 128000 [2]. Stainless Steel - SS2507: The main contract refers to 12600 - 13200. It is recommended to try shorting lightly in the range of 265000 - 270000 [2]. Tin - SN2506: In the medium - to - long - term, it is recommended to adopt a band - trading strategy. In the short - term, observe opportunities for shorting on rebounds [2]. Crude Oil - SC2508: The macro - situation and supply - increase expectations are in a stalemate. The market is in a shock, waiting for the implementation of OPEC's production - increase policy. The WTI fluctuates in the range of [59, 69], Brent in [61, 71], and SC in [440, 500]. It is recommended to pay attention to the INE monthly - spread rebound opportunities [2]. Urea - UR2509: Agricultural demand needs time, and under high - supply pressure, the market is looking for a bottom in a shock. The main - contract fluctuation is adjusted to around [1800, 1900] [2]. PX - PX2509: Supply - demand is marginally weakening, and oil - price support is limited. PX is under short - term pressure. Pay attention to the support at 6500 - 6600, try a light - position reverse - spread operation for PX9 - 1, and shrink the PX - SC spread when it is high [2]. PTA - TA2509: Supply - demand is marginally weakening, and oil - price support is limited. PTA is under short - term pressure. Pay attention to the support near 4600 and treat TA9 - 1 as a reverse - spread operation [2]. Short - Fiber - PF2507: The short - term driving force is weak, and the price follows the raw materials. The unilateral operation is the same as PTA, and it is mainly to expand the processing fee on the PF disk at a low level [2]. Bottle Chip - PR2507: Supply and demand are both increasing, and short - term contradictions are not prominent. The absolute price follows the cost. The unilateral operation is the same as PTA. The main - contract processing fee on the PR disk is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 550 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the opportunity to expand at the lower edge of the range [2]. Ethanol - EG2509: Supply and demand are both decreasing, but MEG has a large destocking in the near - month. Pay attention to the positive - spread opportunity. Unilaterally wait and see, and go for a positive - spread operation for EG9 - 1 when the price is low [2]. Styrene - EB2507: Inventory has stopped decreasing and started to accumulate, and supply - demand is under pressure. The market is in a weak shock. It is medium - term bearish, with a resistance of 7800 for the near - month. Pay attention to the opportunity for the EB - BZ spread to widen [2]. Caustic Soda - 60952HB: The increase in the alumina purchase price drives the near - month price. Pay attention to the warehouse receipts. Unilaterally wait and see, and maintain a positive - spread operation for the near - month [2]. PVC - V2509: The medium - to - long - term contradiction still exists, and the near - end spot is weak. The market has turned down again. It is recommended to short on the medium - to - long - term on rallies, with the resistance level for 09 at around 5100 [2]. Synthetic Rubber - BR2507: The supply - demand pattern of loose remains unchanged, and BR has fallen sharply. Hold short positions [2]. LLDPE - L2509: The spot price follows the disk decline, and the transaction has deteriorated significantly. The market is in a shock [2]. PP - PP2509: Supply and demand are both weak. Pay attention to the subsequent marginal - device restart situation. The market is in a weak shock [2]. Methanol - MA2509: The inventory inflection point has appeared, and the port and inland markets are weakening. The market is in a weak shock [2]. Grains and Oils - M2509: The pressure near 2950 is increasing [2]. - RM509: CBOT is closed, and the market is in a shock [2]. - LH2509: At the end of the month, the volume is shrinking, and downstream Dragon Boat Festival stocking is increasing. The futures and spot prices are rebounding slightly. Pay attention to the support at 13500 [2]. - C2507: The market fluctuates with the shipment rhythm. It fluctuates around 2320 in the short - term [2]. - P2509/Y25: Palm oil may run around 8000 [2]. - SR2509: The overseas supply outlook is relatively loose. Unilaterally wait and see or short on rebounds [2]. - CF2509: The downstream market remains weak. Short on rebounds [2]. - JD2507: The spot price may weaken again. Short on rebounds for the 07 contract [2]. - AP2510: The trading is market - based. The main contract runs around 7500 [2]. - CJ2509: The fundamentals change little, and red dates continue to fluctuate. It runs around 9000 in the short - term [2]. - PK2510: The market price fluctuates. The main contract runs around 8200 [2]. Special Commodities - SA2509: There are many maintenance expectations from May to June. Consider positive - spread participation in the monthly spread. Short on rebounds and go for a positive - spread operation for the 7 - 9 monthly spread [2]. - FG2509: The market sentiment is pessimistic. Pay attention to the support at the 1000 - point level [2]. - RU2509: The fundamentals are weak, and the rubber price is falling. Hold the previous short positions and pay attention to the performance at the 14000 - line [2]. - Si2507: The industrial - silicon futures are increasing positions and falling under the expectation of supply increase. The fundamentals are still bearish [2]. New - Energy Commodities - PS2507: The raw - material price is falling, and the supply is expected to increase. The polysilicon futures are increasing positions and falling, and the price is still under pressure [2]. - LC2507: The market has rebounded, but the fundamental logic has not reversed. The main contract runs in the range of 58,000 - 63,000 [2].

| 材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年5月26日 | | | 問敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货 (华东) | 3180 | 3190 | -10 | 121 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3210 | 3220 | -10 | 151 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3320 | 3350 | -30 | 261 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3078 | 3097 | -19 | 102 | | | 螺纹钢10台约 | 3046 | 3061 | -15 | 134 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3059 | 3081 | -22 | 121 | | | 热卷现货 (华东) | 3260 | 3270 | -10 | 62 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3190 | 3200 | -10 | -8 | | | ...