Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of the shipping sector's resilience in the face of geopolitical tensions, particularly in the context of the Middle East, highlighting the potential for significant demand recovery in the oil tanker segment [4][71] - It identifies a long-term upward cycle in shipping assets, driven by a combination of demand marginal pricing and supply constraints, with a focus on the implications of inflation and geopolitical conflicts on trade dynamics [5][8] - The report suggests that the shipping industry is entering a phase where asset prices are expected to rise, particularly for oil tankers and related companies, as the market adjusts to new geopolitical realities [21][26] Long Cycle - The shipping sector is currently in a demand marginal pricing state, with a long cycle extending until 2037-2038 due to previous high delivery peaks [5][6] - The report notes that the shipbuilding sector is experiencing a simultaneous increase in orders and profits, alleviating concerns about new ship orders [5][8] - Key companies to watch include China Merchants Energy Shipping, COSCO Shipping Energy, and China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation [4][70] Mid Cycle - The report highlights that inflation expectations and geopolitical conflicts are driving up trade profits, with a focus on the mismatch of agricultural and energy commodities [5][32] - It draws parallels to historical periods of high oil prices driving demand for dry bulk shipping, suggesting a potential golden era for dry bulk shipping [5][71] - Companies such as COSCO Shipping Holdings and China Merchants Energy are recommended for their strong positioning in the current market [5][70] Short Cycle - The report indicates that short-term impacts from fuel crises and food supply issues could lead to increased volatility in shipping rates, with a focus on the efficiency losses from fuel shortages [5][72] - It emphasizes the need for additional capacity to manage seasonal demand fluctuations, particularly in the dry bulk and oil tanker segments [5][72] - The report suggests that the current high utilization rates in shipping may lead to significant price fluctuations due to supply-demand mismatches [5][72] Investment Opportunities - The report identifies specific stocks to watch, including oil tankers like China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping, as well as dry bulk companies such as Haitong Development and China National Offshore Oil Corporation [4][70] - It highlights the potential for significant returns in the shipping sector, particularly as asset prices for second-hand ships are expected to rise above newbuilding prices [21][26] - The report suggests that the shipping sector's strategic importance is increasing, making it a critical area for investment as geopolitical tensions continue to shape global trade [49][71]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report focuses on the European shipping line, covering aspects such as loading rates, ship schedules, capacity, ship - delay, port congestion, and futures and spot markets. It presents detailed data and trends for each aspect to help understand the current situation and development trends of the European shipping market [10][14][22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 European Line Loading Rate Tracking - W11 European line fleet's average loading rate from Chinese ports was 91.2%, a 3.7% increase from the previous period (87.5%). W10 European line fleet's loading rate from Asian ports was 98.2%, a 0.8% decrease from the previous period (99.0%). The loading difference between Asian and Chinese ports widened to 10.7% due to Southeast Asian cargo volume [10]. - OA's loading rate from Chinese ports was 93.3%, a 2.8% increase from the previous period, but it has not returned to the mid - range. PA and MSC's loading rate from Chinese ports was 90.0%, a 4.7% increase, and their W10 loading rate from Asian ports was 94.3%, the lowest in recent months. Gemini's loading rate from Chinese ports was 90.6%, a 5.2% increase, and its W10 loading rate from Asian ports was 101.9% [10]. 3.2 European Line Ship Schedules and Capacity - The average weekly capacity from W12 - W13 in March was 31.3 million TEU. The average weekly capacity in April was 32.0 million TEU, with 1 TBN, higher than the average level of 30.7 million TEU in the same period last year. The supply pressure was relatively mild at the beginning of the week, with W14 capacity at 27.2 million TEU. The supply pressure became significant from the middle of the month, with the average weekly capacity from W15 - W16 at 32.1 million TEU and from W17 - W18 in late April at 32.9 million TEU [14]. - There was a new empty voyage on the BRITANNIA route in W12 [15]. 3.3 Ship - Delay and Index Trends - In W11, 2 ship schedules were delayed to W12, including 1 from Gemini and 1 from OA, and 0 from MSC and PA. The SCFIS (European line) index closed at 1556.49 points, a 0.7% increase from the previous period. The actual departure capacity of the European line from Shanghai Port in W11 was 27.09 million TEU, of which 22% were previously delayed ship schedules. In terms of different alliances, the independent weights of Gemini, OA, PA + MSC, and MSC were 21%, 56%, 24%, and 0% respectively. In the previously delayed capacity, the proportions of Gemini, OA, PA, and MSC were 40%, 34%, 26%, and 0% respectively. In the capacity departing as scheduled, the proportions of Gemini, OA, PA, and MSC were 20%, 44%, 37%, and 0% respectively [22]. 3.4 Port Congestion Data - In China, the average turnover time of Yangshan Port was about 1.5 days, Ningbo Port about 1.6 days, and Yantian Port about 1.1 days. Chinese ports were operating normally. In Southeast Asia, ports were operating normally, with the average in - port time of ships in Singapore Port being 1.3 days and in Port Klang being 1.7 days. In Europe, due to seasonal strong winds, some ports in the UK and Northwest Europe were congested, and port efficiency slightly deteriorated. The average in - port time of Antwerp Port was about 3.0 days, Rotterdam 3.1 days, Hamburg Port 4.0 days, and Bremen Port 1.6 days [26]. 3.5 Futures and Spot Markets The report presents the price trends of different futures contracts such as ECZL2.SHF, EC2604.INE, etc., as well as the price differences between different contract periods (4 - 6, 4 - 8, 6 - 8, 8 - 10 spreads), and the seasonal trends of SCFIS (European line) and SCFI (European line) [28][29].

Core Viewpoint - The shipping industry is undergoing significant transformation due to climate change, economic fluctuations, technological innovations, and geopolitical challenges, necessitating a shift towards green low-carbon transition and digitalization [1]. Group 1: Event Overview - The "Hui Zhi Salon" is an extension of the North Bund International Shipping Forum, aimed at creating a flexible and engaging platform for industry dialogue [1]. - Each session will focus on a core industry issue, collaborating with key enterprises or institutions to foster insights and solutions for the shipping industry's development challenges [1]. - The inaugural salon is scheduled for March 19, co-hosted with BIMCO, focusing on themes such as macroeconomic environment, industry challenges, green transition, artificial intelligence, and digitalization [1]. Group 2: Participants and Structure - The salon will feature representatives from international shipping organizations, shipping companies, relevant institutions, and government departments to share insights and explore collaboration opportunities [1]. - Key speakers include leaders from various organizations, such as Chen Yu from China Merchants Jinling Shipyard, Zhu Maijin from COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation, and Zhou Zhiyong from Shanghai Shipbuilding Research Institute [6][9][11].

Group 1: Shipping Derivatives Data - China Export Container Freight Rates: SCFI - US West at 2249 (up 14.85% from 1940), SCFI - US East at 3111 (up 11.43% from 2717), SCFIS - US West at 1618 (up 1.70% from 1601), SCFI - Northwest Europe at 1710 (up 15.93% from 1475), CCFI at 1072 (up 14.50% from 936), SCFI Composite Index at 1109 (down 1.07% from 1121), SCFI - Mediterranean at 1556 (up 0.71% from 1545), SCFIS - Northwest Europe at 2666 (up 12.97% from 2360) [1][2] Group 2: Geopolitical Events - US military air - strikes on Iranian facilities: US military attacked the defense facilities on Iran's Kharg Island with over 15 explosions, but the oil infrastructure was not damaged, and the air - defense system restarted about an hour later. Iran stated that oil exports from the island were normal and important oil infrastructure was intact [3] - Trump: Conditions are not good enough, and he is not ready to reach an agreement with Iran currently [3] - According to the New York Post, Iran's foreign minister said that all countries except the US and Israel are allowed to cross the Strait of Hormuz [3] - Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps believes that if Iran loses control of the Strait of Hormuz, it will lose the war [3] Group 3: EC Market Analysis - Market trend: The EC market for container shipping to Europe showed a stable - then - rising trend. The futures market significantly rose at the end of the session, and the trading sentiment shifted from cautious to bullish. The price fluctuation was mainly driven by the pricing actions of leading shipping companies [4] - Core driver: The direct reason for the late - session rise was that Maersk, a leading shipping company, announced a significant increase in the weekly price for European routes compared to the previous week, which countered the previous pessimistic expectations of alliance price cuts and provided strong emotional support for the market [4] - Supply - demand situation: On the supply side, shipping companies' pricing strategies are more differentiated, with leading companies strongly willing to maintain prices, and the overall capacity deployment is under control. The Red Sea geopolitical situation provides rigid support for shipping costs. On the demand side, it is in the traditional off - season, with slow release of terminal cargo volume and no substantial recovery in demand. The market will focus on the pricing linkage of leading shipping companies, and the market is likely to remain highly volatile [4] Group 4: Strategy - Strategy: Stay on the sidelines, and the 4 - 5 reverse spread can be taken profit [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The main contract EC2604 is approaching delivery, and Maersk continues to raise the freight rate in the first week of April, which boosts the valuation of the 04 contract. Considering the high geopolitical risks, the volatility of the EC2604 contract may increase, and investors are advised to closely follow the spot market and operate flexibly [6][7]. - The contracts for the relatively peak seasons of June, July, and August have strong expectations. The reasons include the low probability of the Suez Canal's reopening in the first half of the year, the relatively small delivery pressure of ultra - large container ships in the first half of 2026, and the relatively high year - on - year growth rate of demand from Asia to Europe. However, future price fluctuations are expected to be significant, and investors need to respond flexibly [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - **Online Quotes**: Different shipping companies have different price quotes for different shipping schedules. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam WEEK13 quote is 1455/2350, and WEEK14 is 1625/2610. HPL's quotes for the second half of March range from 2445 - 3555 dollars/FEU, and for the first half of April, it ranges from 4855 - 5035 dollars/FEU [1]. 3.2 Geopolitical Situation - Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Aerospace Force Commander said that Iran's "devastating" strike against the US and Israel has entered the "acceleration phase" [4]. 3.3 Static Supply - As of February 28, 2026, 27 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 174,232 TEU. The delivery expectations for 12000 - 16999TEU and 17000 + TEU ships from 2026 to 2029 are provided, indicating that the delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small, while the annual delivery volume of 17000 + TEU ships in 2027, 2028, and 2029 exceeds 40 [4][5]. 3.4 Dynamic Supply - The average weekly capacity from China to European base ports in March, April, and May is provided. There are also details about empty sailings and TBNs. The transfer of ships from the Middle East to the European line increases supply pressure and may affect European line freight rates [6]. 3.5 Freight Rate and Contract Situation - Maersk's price in the first week of April is 2600 - 2700 dollars/FEU (equivalent to about 1900 points in SCFIS), which boosts the valuation of the April contract. Major shipping companies have announced emergency fuel surcharges, but Maersk has stopped collecting them. The settlement price of the April contract is the arithmetic average of the three - phase SCFIS on April 13th, 20th, and 27th [6]. 3.6 Strategy - **Unilateral Strategy**: None. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Go long on EC2606 and short on EC2610 [10]. 3.7 Market Data - As of March 17, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures is 51,979.00 lots, and the daily trading volume is 42,987.00 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are provided. The SCFI and SCFIS prices of different routes on different dates are also given [9].

Group 1 - Zhipu AI (02513) saw a price increase of over 10% during trading, currently up 7.4%, following the announcement of its first closed-source model GLM-5-Turbo and a 20% price hike for its new model API [1] - Capital Airport (00694) dropped over 4% after JPMorgan downgraded its investment rating from "Neutral" to "Underweight" and cut the target price by 40% to HKD 1.8, citing structural challenges and potential selling pressure from being removed from the Hong Kong Stock Connect list [1] - Cloudwalk Technology (02670) rose over 7% after signing a strategic cooperation agreement with SF Express to define new standards for building delivery [1] Group 2 - Yiming Anke-B (01541) increased by over 8% after receiving approval for its II phase clinical study of IMM0306 for treating Primary Membranous Nephropathy [2] - WanGuo Data-SW (09698) surged over 12.6% after reporting a net revenue of RMB 11.4323 billion (USD 1.6348 billion) for the year, a 10.8% year-on-year increase, with adjusted EBITDA also up by 10.8% [2] - Automotive stocks collectively fell, with Li Auto-W (02015) down 6.24%, Xpeng Motors-W (09868) down 4.35%, and Great Wall Motors (02333) down 2.64%, amid warnings from multiple CEOs about rising chip costs [2] Group 3 - Smoore International (06969) opened slightly higher but fell 15.21% after reporting a revenue of approximately RMB 14.256 billion for 2025, a 20.8% increase, but a net profit decline of 18.5% [3] - China Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation (01138) rose 5.39% as reports indicated significant impacts on the tanker and energy markets due to ongoing Middle East conflicts [3] Group 4 - China Oriental Education (00667) increased by 6.57% after reporting a revenue of RMB 4.616 billion for 2025, a 12.1% year-on-year increase, with net profit up 47.5% [4] - Changfeng Pharmaceutical (02652) surged over 21%, currently up 9.99%, after announcing the acceptance of its IND application for a new inhalation powder for treating pulmonary arterial hypertension [4] Group 5 - Swarmer (SWMR.US) debuted on the US stock market with a staggering opening price increase of 315.4%, currently up 520%, focusing on AI-driven drone swarm control systems [5] - 36Kr (KRKR.US) rose 37.39% after reporting a total revenue of RMB 227 million for 2025, with a gross margin increase to 58% and a net profit of approximately RMB 11.42 million [5] - Space-related stocks saw active trading, with Rocket Lab (RKLB.US) up 10.21% and Planet Labs PBC (PL.US) up 10.08% [5] Group 6 - Solaris Energy Infrastructure (SEI.US) rose 10.88% after announcing agreements worth USD 620 million to add approximately 900 MW of gas turbine capacity between 2026 and 2029 [7] - Uber (UBER.US) increased by 4.19% following a partnership with NVIDIA to deploy autonomous taxi fleets in major US cities by 2027 [8] - Aiko Solar (CSIQ.US) rose 1.94% after announcing a supply agreement for a 500 MW energy storage project [8] - Atour (ATAT.US) saw a price increase of 5.98% after reporting a net revenue of approximately RMB 2.788 billion for Q4 2025, a 33.8% year-on-year increase [8]

2026 年 3 月 18 日 集运指数（欧线）：震荡偏强，关注地缘情绪扰动 | 郑玉洁 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 | zhengyujie@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柳楠 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 | huangliunan@gtht.com | 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | 期货 | 合约 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | EC2604 | 2,004.5 | -0.04% | 29,117 | 23,452 | -1,151 | 1.24 | 1.56 | | | EC2606 | 2,453.0 | -0.02% | 9,112 | 14,148 | -235 | 0.64 | 0.88 | | | EC2608 | 2,401.0 | 0.33% | 605 | 2,776 | -92 | 0.22 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided document does not mention the industry investment rating, so this part is skipped. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ongoing geopolitical conflicts, especially the situation in the Middle East, have a significant impact on various futures markets. Uncertainties in supply, demand, and costs are driving market volatility. For example, the conflict has led to concerns about energy supply, which in turn affects the prices of commodities such as crude oil, natural gas, and metals [121][67]. - Different sectors show different trends based on their own fundamentals. For instance, in the agricultural sector, factors like supply and demand, harvest conditions, and policy changes influence prices. In the industrial sector, energy costs, production capacity, and market demand play crucial roles [26][56]. - Market sentiment is cautious due to the uncertainties brought by geopolitical conflicts. Investors are closely watching the development of the situation and adjusting their investment strategies accordingly [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: Risk - aversion sentiment is rising. The market is affected by the Middle East situation and the performance of the AI sector. Indexes are expected to be volatile, and trading strategies include grid operations, IM/IC 2609 long + ETF short arbitrage, and double - buying options [19][20][21]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market has slightly stabilized. With the central bank's net injection of short - term liquidity, the market funds are in a narrow - range fluctuation. Short - term short positions are recommended to stop losses and then wait and see [23]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The supply is uncertain, and the market is in a high - level shock. Fundamental factors are mostly negative, and trading strategies include short - term bearish unilateral operations, MRM09 spread narrowing arbitrage, and buying put options [26][27]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are rising, and domestic sugar prices are fluctuating. International sugar production is expected to be lower than previously estimated, while domestic sugar production is likely to increase. Trading strategies include short - term bullish unilateral operations and selling put options [30][31]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: Oils are expected to be in a high - level shock in the short term. The Middle East geopolitical conflict is the focus, and factors such as palm oil inventory and soybean arrival time affect the market. It is recommended to wait and see for now [33][34]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The market is in a high - level shock. The increase in millet auctions and other factors influence the price. Trading strategies include a bullish view on the 05 corn contract on the external market and a high - level shock view on the domestic 05 corn contract [35][36][37]. - **Hogs**: The出栏 pressure is increasing, and prices are continuing to decline. Feed prices and high inventory levels are the main factors. Trading strategies include short - selling the near - month contract and LH59 reverse arbitrage [38][39]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price is strong, and the futures price is in a strong - level shock. The import volume has decreased, and the oil mill still has profits. Trading strategies include closing long positions in the 05 peanut contract and selling pk605 - P - 7700 options [40][41][42]. - **Eggs**: The enthusiasm for culling hens has decreased, and egg prices are mainly stable. The market is in a consumption off - season, and it is recommended to short the June contract [43][45][46]. - **Apples**: The inventory reduction speed is acceptable, and the price of high - quality goods is firm. The 5 - month contract is recommended to be exited and observed, and attention can be paid to the 10 - month contract [47][48][49]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The cotton price has strong support at the bottom and is in a slightly bullish shock. The external market is rising, and domestic supply and demand are relatively balanced. It is recommended to build long positions at low prices [50][51][52]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The raw materials provide support, and steel prices are in a shock. The downstream demand is seasonally recovering, but the inventory is still accumulating. The price is affected by overseas and raw material factors and is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term [56]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price fluctuates greatly, and attention should be paid to the development of geopolitical conflicts. The price is mainly affected by oil and gas prices, and it is recommended to take a cautious approach [60][61]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply disturbance is increasing, and it is recommended to hedge at high prices for spot enterprises. The price is affected by geopolitical conflicts and seasonal factors, and the supply is relatively loose [62][63]. - **Ferroalloys**: The energy cost is being transmitted, and the positive feedback continues. Both silicon iron and manganese silicon are in a positive feedback situation, and it is recommended to hold the remaining long positions [64][65]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Geopolitical conflicts continue, and gold and silver prices are under pressure and in a shock. The market is cautious due to the conflict and inflation concerns. It is recommended to wait and see for conservative investors and take a short - term bearish approach for aggressive investors [67][68][71]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Attention should be paid to whether secondary inflation affects the interest - rate cut path. The market is affected by energy - related inflation concerns and the FOMC meeting. It is recommended to wait and see and look for low - buying opportunities for platinum [71][72]. - **Copper**: Geopolitical risks continue to disturb, and copper prices are in a continuous shock. The supply and demand situation and the impact of the Middle East conflict on production are the main factors [74]. - **Alumina**: Concerns about the supply of bauxite in Guinea have increased the price volatility. The policy of Guinea is uncertain, and the price may be strong in the short term [75][78]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Geopolitical conflicts have led to a decrease in supply, and macro risks should be vigilant. The production reduction in the Middle East and Mozambique affects the market, and it is recommended to be bullish at low prices [80][82]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It fluctuates widely with the aluminum price. The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East affects the aluminum industry, and the price is affected by the aluminum price [83]. - **Zinc**: The domestic social inventory is continuously accumulating. The supply is increasing, and the demand recovery is insufficient. The price may be in a weak shock in the short term [84][85]. - **Lead**: The stop - loss line should be raised to protect profits. The social inventory is increasing, and the price is in a weak shock. It is recommended to hold long positions and raise the stop - loss line [87][89]. - **Nickel**: The short - term price is dominated by the macro situation. The price is affected by the copper price and the production situation of nickel mines. It is recommended to wait for the macro situation to stabilize before considering long positions [90]. - **Stainless Steel**: It is supported by cost and follows the nickel price. The overseas manufacturing contraction and the cost of nickel mines affect the price. It is recommended to wait for the macro situation to stabilize [95]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It is in a range shock. The supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the price is expected to be in a range [97]. - **Polysilicon**: It is in a short - term shock and waiting for policy guidance. The production is increasing, and the price is affected by the policy and market supply and demand [99]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it is in a high - level shock. The supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the price is expected to be in a wide - range shock [104]. - **Tin**: The situation in the US - Iran conflict is unclear, and the tin price is in a range shock. The supply from Myanmar and the impact of the Middle East conflict are the main factors [106][107]. Shipping and Carbon Emissions - **Container Shipping**: The MSK's April first - week quotation has increased. The market is affected by fuel prices and geopolitical conflicts. It is recommended to wait and see [109][110]. - **Dry Bulk Freight**: The war in the Middle East continues, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur oils may significantly affect the market by ship type. The geopolitical conflict affects the fuel price and shipping cost, and the market is expected to be affected in the long - term [112][113]. - **Carbon Emissions**: The news of the expansion of the Chinese carbon market has spread, and the negative sentiment in the EU carbon market has affected the carbon price decline. The Chinese carbon market may be supported in the short - term, and the EU carbon market is expected to be in a shock [114][115][118]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The attack on Middle East energy facilities has increased supply concerns. The price is expected to be bullish at a high level [121][122]. - **Asphalt**: The reduction of the main refineries' production has increased, and concerns about raw materials continue. The price is expected to be strong, but the demand is weak [124][125]. - **Fuel Oil**: The geopolitical drive continues, and the cost is in a high - level shock. The supply is expected to be tightened, and the demand in Singapore may increase [127][128]. - **LPG**: The geopolitical situation remains tense, and the price is in a strong - level shock. It follows the oil price, and attention should be paid to the situation in the Strait of Hormuz [130][131]. - **Natural Gas**: The geopolitical risk continues, and the upward trend remains unchanged. The supply in Qatar is affected, and the price is expected to rise [132][133][134]. - **PX & PTA**: There is an expected unplanned reduction in supply, and PTA enterprises may be forced to reduce production. The price is expected to be in a high - level shock, and the risk of a decline should be guarded against [135][136][137]. - **BZ & EB**: The raw material supply is short, and the fundamentals are good. The price is affected by the supply from the Middle East, and the risk of a decline should be guarded against [139][140]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Iranian plants are resuming production. The supply and demand structure is improving, and the price is expected to be in a high - level shock [141][142][143]. - **Short - fiber**: The sales are still weak. The production and sales are not good, and the price is expected to be in a high - level shock [144]. - **Bottle Chips**: The inventory is continuously decreasing. The production and delivery of some enterprises are uncertain, and the price is expected to be slightly bullish [146][147]. - **Propylene**: The supply is tight. The cost is rising, and the supply is decreasing. The price is expected to be in a high - level shock [148][149]. - **Plastic PP**: The import profit of PP has reached a new low. The price of L and PP is affected by the macro situation and supply - demand factors. It is recommended to hold long positions and set stop - loss levels [150][151][153]. - **Caustic Soda**: It is in a shock. The supply is shrinking, the export is expected to increase, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to be in a shock [154][155]. - **PVC**: It is firm at a high level. The supply is expected to decrease at home and abroad, and the price is expected to be slightly bullish [157]. - **Soda Ash**: It is in a wide - range shock with a weak direction. The supply is increasing, and the demand is general. The price is expected to be in a wide - range shock and weak [161][162]. - **Glass**: It is in a wide - range shock with a weak direction. The demand is affected by the real - estate market, and the price is expected to be in a wide - range shock and weak [163][164]. - **Methanol**: It is rising strongly. The production in Iran is affected, and the domestic inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to go long at low prices [165]. - **Urea**: It is mainly in a shock. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is gradually increasing. The price is expected to be in a shock [167]. - **Pulp**: The inventory is high, and the pulp price is weakly adjusted. The supply is greater than the demand, and the price is affected by the macro situation [172][173]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The sales are average, and the market is based on rigid demand. The supply and demand are in a weak balance, and the price is expected to be weak [176]. - **Logs**: The import cost is rising, supporting the upward movement of the market. The cost is rising, but the supply - demand balance limits the increase [180][181]. - **Natural Rubber and 20 - number Rubber**: The national dry - rubber inventory is continuously increasing. The inventory increase is a negative factor, and it is recommended to wait and see [182][185]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The profit of butadiene is continuously improving. The profit increase is a positive factor, and it is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the support level [188][189][190].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a wait - and - see approach [2] Core View - It is recommended to wait and see, with the 04 contract gradually entering the delivery logic, and observe whether there are opportunities for basis repair. Although historically, the 6 - 7 and 6 - 8 reverse spreads are reasonably valued, it still depends on the duration of the geopolitical situation. If the issue is resolved in May, the current structure is also reasonable [2] Data Summary Futures Data - EC2604: yesterday's closing price was 2004.5, up 3.39%, with a basis of - 459.0, trading volume of 29117, and an open interest of 23452, down 1151 [2] - EC2605: yesterday's closing price was 2240.9, up 3.03%, with a basis of - 695.4, trading volume of 1452, and an open interest of 1928, down 29 [2] - EC2606: yesterday's closing price was 2453.0, up 2.45%, with a basis of - 907.5, trading volume of 9112, and an open interest of 14148, down 235 [2] - EC2607: yesterday's closing price was 2549.8, up 1.97%, with a basis of - 1004.3, trading volume of 171, and an open interest of 781, up 6 [2] - EC2608: yesterday's closing price was 2401.0, up 1.09%, with a basis of - 855.5, trading volume of 708, and an open interest of 2776, down 92 [2] - EC2609: yesterday's closing price was 1751.9, up 2.04%, with a basis of - 206.4, trading volume of 56, and an open interest of 534, down 42 [2] - EC2610: yesterday's closing price was 1580.0, up 0.77%, with a basis of - 34.5, trading volume of 2403, and an open interest of 7955, down 517 [2] - EC2612: yesterday's closing price was 1801.0, down 0.72%, with a basis of - 255.5, trading volume of 71, and an open interest of 405, up 2 [2] Month - spread Data - EC2604 - 2606: previous day was - 448.5, previous two days was - 455.6, previous three days was - 469.9, daily change was 7.1, weekly change was - 111.8 [2] - EC2604 - 2605: previous day was - 236.4, previous two days was - 236.2, previous three days was - 245.4, daily change was - 0.2, weekly change was - 57.3 [2] - EC2606 - 2610: previous day was 873.0, previous two days was 826.4, previous three days was 859.0, daily change was 46.6, weekly change was 79.6 [2] Spot Index Data - SCFIS (European Line): updated weekly on Mondays, announced on 2026/3/9, the current value was 1545.46 points, up 5.61% from the previous period, and the previous period was down 7.00% [2] - SCFI (European Line): updated weekly, announced on 2026/3/13, the current value was 1618 dollars/TEU, up 11.43% from the previous period, and the previous period was up 2.25% [2] European Line Spot Situation - In late March, OA and PA alliances, and MSC announced price increases to around 4000 US dollars - Week 12: MSK quoted 2250 US dollars (up 400 from the previous week), OA alliance quoted 2700 - 2800 US dollars, PA alliance quoted 2200 US dollars (large - ticket price down 200), MSC quoted 2740 US dollars (large - ticket price down 200), with an average of 2450 US dollars, equivalent to about 1715 points on the futures market - Week 13: MSK's price remained flat at 2250 US dollars, and other shipping companies quoted around 2700 - 3000 US dollars - On Tuesday, Maersk opened bookings for the first week of April (Week 14) at 2650 US dollars (up 400 from the previous week) [3] Related News - On 3/17, Iran stated that it could legally attack countries that allow the US and Israel to use their territories for aggression - On 3/17, the Iranian Speaker said that the Strait of Hormuz would not return to the pre - war state - On 3/17, White House economic advisor Hassett said that oil tankers had started passing through the Strait of Hormuz, and the Iran war would last for weeks rather than months [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market risk preference remains low, with gold prices oscillating slightly higher, silver prices falling by over 1%, and oil prices remaining strong due to the blocked passage of the Strait of Hormuz and the refusal of US allies to provide escort, leading to increasing inflationary pressure [1][12]. - A - shares continue to decline with shrinking trading volume, and there are no trend - based opportunities for short - term stock indices as the situation between the US and Iran escalates and funds shift between sectors [2][22]. - The focus of the bond market lies in the war and shipping situation in the strait. If oil prices remain high, inflation should be the main trading theme, and long - term bond varieties are in a weakly oscillating market [3][25]. - Steel prices continue to oscillate slightly stronger, but the market driving force is still insufficient, and the subsequent inventory reduction speed of finished products is uncertain [4][30]. - Oil prices are oscillating at a high level, and the security threat to Middle - East energy facilities is increasing [5][54]. - The container shipping price from Shanghai to Rotterdam by MSK has increased, and the freight rate is expected to remain strongly oscillating in the short term [6][62]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US Treasury auctioned $13 billion of 20 - year Treasury bonds, with a winning bid rate of 4.817% and a bid - to - cover ratio of 2.76 [11]. - After the death of Ali Larijani, gold prices oscillated slightly higher, silver prices fell by over 1%, and inflationary pressure increased. Short - term precious metals are under pressure, and the silver performance is weaker than that of gold [12][13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US military launched an attack on missile launch sites near the Strait of Hormuz. Trump criticized NATO allies, and the US dollar index is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [14][16][17]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The White House economic advisor believes that the Iran conflict will end within a few weeks. After the death of Larijani, the Middle - East situation escalates, but the financial market has priced in the war's persistence. The US stock market has rebounded for two consecutive days, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [18][19][20]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Ministry of Finance will implement a more proactive fiscal policy, and the National Development and Reform Commission has launched $13.4 billion in major foreign - funded projects. A - shares are falling with shrinking trading volume, and there are no short - term trend - based opportunities. It is recommended to reduce positions to avoid risks [21][22][23]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 51 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 1.15 billion yuan. The bond market focuses on the war and shipping situation. If oil prices remain high, inflation is the main trading theme, and short - term short - selling has a slightly higher cost - performance ratio [24][25][26]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in Wuhai is running stably. The supply side is increasing, and the demand side is expected to improve. The short - term market is in a supply - demand balance, and price fluctuations are mainly affected by the Middle - East geopolitical conflict [27][28]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - China State Construction's new contract value from January to February increased by 0.9% year - on - year. Steel prices are oscillating slightly stronger, but the driving force is weak. The inventory reduction speed is uncertain, and the upside space is limited [29][30][31]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in Beigang is stable. The internal and external coal prices are decoupled, and the overseas coal price is rising. If the conflict lasts until May - June, the domestic coal price may rise passively. The short - term price oscillates, and there is an upward risk in the long term [32][33]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - MinRes's Lamb Creek iron ore project has achieved its first shipment. The iron ore price continues to oscillate. Considering factors such as freight costs and potential mining cost increases, the short - term downward trend is not clear [34]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The policy of the lowest - price wheat auction has been adjusted, which may suppress the corn feed demand. The supply side's grain sales progress is slow, and the port inventory is low. The demand side has support. The short - term market is in a multi - factor game, and the price is expected to stabilize and rebound in the medium and long term [35][36]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals (Platinum) - The government has launched a hydrogen energy application pilot project, which is beneficial to platinum demand in the long term. The fundamental driving force of platinum and palladium has weakened. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and consider long - platinum and short - palladium opportunities [37][38][39]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The auction price of lithium spodumene concentrate is 15,617 yuan/ton. The supply side may face cost increases and production cuts, and the demand side has support. It is recommended to pay attention to buying opportunities on dips [40][41][42]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead has a discount. The lead price is under pressure but has cost support. It is recommended to pay attention to mid - term buying opportunities on dips [43][44][45]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc has a discount, and the inventory has increased. The zinc price is in a short - term adjustment period. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks in the mid - term [46][47]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - River Steel Resources' South African subsidiary's copper mining has partially resumed production, and Rio Tinto plans to invest $500 million in a copper mine exploration. The copper price is affected by the Middle - East situation and terminal demand. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and consider an internal - external positive arbitrage strategy [48][50][51]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The LME tin has a discount. The supply side's repair expectation is strong, and the demand side is weak. The tin price is expected to oscillate in the short term [51][52]. 3.2.12 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Iraq is expected to resume oil exports from Turkish ports, and an oil and gas facility in the UAE has been attacked. Oil prices are oscillating at a high level, and the short - term risk premium is affected by the Strait of Hormuz situation [53][54][55]. 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The LPG price is oscillating at a high level. The domestic market price is stable, and the external market has a slight correction. It is recommended to manage risks due to the fluctuating Middle - East news [56]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The asphalt production of local refineries in April is expected to decrease. The supply side is tight, and the price is likely to rise and difficult to fall in the short term [57][58]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA closing price is 81.58 yuan/ton, with a 0.45% decline. The carbon market is in a policy window period, and the price is oscillating narrowly. Enterprises in need can consider buying on dips [59][60]. 3.2.16 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Indian and Pakistani transport ships have successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz. The MSK Shanghai - Rotterdam shipping price has increased, and the freight rate is expected to be strongly oscillating in the short term, with the bottom of the oscillation range rising [61][62].