Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The macro - drive of iron ore is wavering, and the price is expected to oscillate repeatedly. The fundamentals of iron ore are showing signs of changing from tight to loose, but the relatively high downstream开工 rate resists price decline. Considering the multi - faceted potential political events at the macro - level, the iron ore price may continue the range - bound trend in the short term [3][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore Contract Performance - The price of the main 09 contract fluctuated narrowly this week, closing at 703.0 yuan/ton. The position was 696,000 lots, a decrease of 29,000 lots. The average daily trading volume was 344,000 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 49,000 lots [7] Spot Price Performance - Spot prices continued to be weak, with medium - grade ores experiencing larger declines. For example, the price of PB powder decreased by 11 yuan/ton from last week [11] Iron Ore Supply Mainstream Mines - Australian shipments continued to rise. BHP and Fortescue had strong momentum to boost shipments at the end of the fiscal year, both reaching year - on - year highs, strengthening the expectation of loose supply. Freight rates showed some differentiation [5][16] Non - mainstream Mines - The iron ore shipments from Peru have not fully recovered [20] Domestic Mines - Previously, production activities in the southwest region were restricted due to anti - corruption inspections. Recently, the开工 rate in North China also decreased due to supervision and inspections [27] Iron Ore Demand Downstream - The production of five major steel products and the port ore clearance volume declined steeply recently. The pig iron output continued to decline month - on - month, but the absolute level remained relatively high [33] Scrap Steel Substitution Effect - The arrival of scrap steel was relatively neutral, and the scrap - iron price difference continued to widen, reaching a new stage high [34] Iron Ore Inventory - The inflection point of inventory accumulation has emerged [38][40] Downstream Profits - The prices of coking coal and coke rebounded, leading to a decline in downstream profits [44] Spot Category Spreads - The spread between medium - and low - grade ores (PB - Super Special) continued to narrow [46] Futures Monthly Spreads - Due to the downward - revised supply - demand expectation in the second half of the year, the near - month contract weakened, and the 9 - 1 spread narrowed by 5.5 yuan/ton week - on - week to 30.5 yuan/ton [50] Basis Performance - As the fundamentals weakened in reality, the spot price made up for the decline, and the basis converged [53]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar showed a weak oscillation, with a daily decline of 0.70%, and the volume decreased while the open interest increased. The supply - demand situation of rebar remained weak on both sides. Although supply contraction led to inventory reduction, demand was also weak, and the fundamentals did not improve. With low inventory and few real - world contradictions, it was expected that rebar would continue to oscillate at a low level during the off - season [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated downward, with a daily decline of 0.87%, and the volume decreased while the open interest increased. The supply - demand pattern of hot - rolled coil remained weak. Supply slightly contracted from a high level but the pressure persisted, and demand was weakly stable. With inventory continuously increasing and the Sino - US trade risk easing, it was expected that the price of hot - rolled coil would continue to oscillate at a low level [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated at a low level, with a daily decline of 0.21%, and both volume and open interest contracted. Although the repair of pessimistic expectations drove the discounted ore price to oscillate upward, the supply - strong and demand - weak situation led to a weak fundamental performance of iron ore. The upward driving force was not strong, and it was expected that the ore price would maintain a low - level oscillation [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industry Dynamics - The first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London from June 9th to 10th. Both sides reached a principle agreement on the measures framework for implementing the important consensus of the leaders' phone call on June 5th and consolidating the results of the Geneva economic and trade talks, and made new progress in addressing each other's economic and trade concerns [6]. - Shanghai Minhang initiated the first project of purchasing existing commercial housing for affordable rental housing. The practice originated from the monetized construction mechanism of affordable housing [7]. - Roy Hill and Atlas Iron in Australia planned to merge into Hancock Iron Ore on July 1st. Roy Hill exported about 64 million tons of iron ore to the Asian market annually, and Atlas Iron mined and exported about 10 million tons annually [8]. Spot Market - For steel products, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,060 yuan, down 20 yuan; in Tianjin it was 3,200 yuan, unchanged; and the national average was 3,234 yuan, down 2 yuan. The spot price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3,200 yuan, unchanged; in Tianjin it was 3,110 yuan, down 20 yuan; and the national average was 3,244 yuan, down 5 yuan. The price of Tangshan billet was 2,920 yuan, unchanged, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,100 yuan, up 20 yuan. The coil - rebar spread was 140 yuan, up 20 yuan, and the rebar - scrap spread was 960 yuan, down 40 yuan [9]. - For iron ore, the price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 720 yuan, down 5 yuan; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 722 yuan, down 5 yuan. The freight from Australia was 9.55 yuan, down 0.13 yuan, and from Brazil was 23.33 yuan, down 0.07 yuan. The SGX swap (current month) was 95.80 yuan, up 0.50 yuan, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 95.75 yuan, up 0.80 yuan [9]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 2,968 yuan, with a decline of 0.70%. The trading volume was 1,312,653 lots, a decrease of 202,202 lots, and the open interest was 2,220,025 lots, an increase of 55,793 lots [13]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract was 3,080 yuan, with a decline of 0.87%. The trading volume was 490,001 lots, a decrease of 108,817 lots, and the open interest was 1,566,756 lots, an increase of 3,326 lots [13]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 704.0 yuan, with a decline of 0.21%. The trading volume was 256,930 lots, a decrease of 90,128 lots, and the open interest was 716,699 lots, a decrease of 12,525 lots [13]. Related Charts - The report presented charts on steel and iron ore inventories (including rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore at ports and in mines), as well as charts on steel mill production (such as blast furnace operating rates, capacity utilization rates, and the proportion of profitable steel mills) [15][29]. Market Outlook - For rebar, supply and demand continued to decline. Weekly production decreased by 108,900 tons, and inventory decreased. However, due to good profit per ton, the sustainability of production reduction was uncertain. Demand continued to weaken seasonally, with weekly apparent demand decreasing by 124,000 tons. It was expected to continue oscillating at a low level during the off - season [38]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply - demand pattern continued to weaken. Although production decreased by 41,000 tons week - on - week, it was still at a high level. Demand was weakly stable, with weekly apparent demand decreasing by 10,400 tons. With the Sino - US trade negotiation making progress, it was expected to continue oscillating at a low level [39]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern was weakly stable. Terminal consumption was weakly stable, but demand was expected to weaken during the off - season. Domestic port arrivals continued to rise, and overseas shipments were at a high level. The ore price was under pressure and was expected to oscillate at a low level [40].

Core Insights - The West Pilbara project, a joint venture between Rio Tinto and China Baowu Steel Group, is set to officially commence production, marking a significant milestone in their long-standing partnership [1][3][6] - The project has seen an investment of $2 billion (approximately 143.7 billion RMB) over the past two years for infrastructure development, including a giant crusher and conveyor systems [3][4] - The annual production capacity of the West Pilbara project is projected to be 25 million tons of iron ore, with China Baowu expected to purchase approximately 11.5 million tons annually [4][7] Company Collaboration - The partnership between Rio Tinto and China Baowu is a continuation of their previous collaboration on the East Pilbara project, which has already shipped over 200 million tons of iron ore [4][6] - The joint venture structure allows both companies to strengthen their operational ties and stabilize iron ore sales channels while mitigating investment risks [6][7] Market Context - China Baowu, as the world's largest steel producer, relies heavily on high-quality iron ore from Rio Tinto, with a significant portion of its iron ore procurement coming from this partnership [3][7] - The average iron content of the ore produced at the West Pilbara project is 62%, significantly higher than the average of 34.5% for domestic iron ore resources in China, highlighting the quality advantage [4][7] Future Plans - Rio Tinto aims to maintain sustainable operations by developing a new mine each year over the next five years, targeting an annual iron ore production of 345-360 million tons in the Pilbara region [9] - The company has invested approximately $8.5 billion (about 611 billion RMB) in the Pilbara region over the past three years and plans to invest over $13 billion (approximately 934 billion RMB) in the next three years for new mine development [9][11] Additional Projects - The Simandou project in Guinea, which has the potential to produce 120 million tons of high-quality iron ore annually, is also a key focus for Rio Tinto and China Baowu, with significant infrastructure development underway [9][11]

Core Viewpoint - The Rio Tinto Group and China Baowu Steel Group have officially launched the West Pilbara Iron Ore Project in Australia, which is expected to benefit both companies and the local economy [1][3]. Group 1: Project Overview - The West Pilbara Iron Ore Project is located in the Pilbara region of Western Australia, with a designed annual production capacity of 25 million tons [1]. - The total investment for the project is approximately $2 billion, with Rio Tinto holding a 54% stake and Baowu holding 46% [1][3]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The project is expected to enhance the economic development of the Pilbara region and contribute to the economy of Western Australia through royalties and taxes [1]. - The West Pilbara Iron Ore Project is seen as a critical component for the long-term operation of the Paraburdoo mining center, which is one of Rio Tinto's oldest mining sites [3]. Group 3: Strategic Importance - Baowu Steel is Rio Tinto's largest customer, and the project represents a strategic partnership between the two industry leaders, showcasing the cooperation between China and Australia [3]. - The project is viewed as a model for economic cooperation between the two countries, with commitments to sustainable development and innovation [3]. Group 4: Market Context - Australia exports over 900 million tons of iron ore annually from the Pilbara region, primarily to China, amidst increasing uncertainties in the steel industry due to rising tariffs [1][4]. - Current iron ore prices are around $95 per ton, with production costs for Australian companies estimated at $33 per ton for 2024 [4].

金十数据6月6日讯，中国宝武钢铁集团与全球矿业巨头力拓集团合资开发的澳大利亚西坡铁矿项目6日 正式投产。该项目位于西澳大利亚州皮尔巴拉地区，设计年产能为2500万吨。西坡铁矿项目总投资达20 亿美元，力拓集团和中国宝武分别持股54%和46%。项目主要设施包括一座初级破碎站和一条长达18公 里的输送系统，与力拓集团现有的选矿厂相连。 （新华社） 中企与力拓合资铁矿项目在澳大利亚正式投产 ...

宝武与力拓联合开发的澳大利亚西坡铁矿项目全面投产 智通财经6月6日电，宝武与力拓集团联合开发的西坡铁矿项目全面建成投产。据了解，西坡项目总投资 约24亿澳元，力拓持股54%、宝武持股46%，项目设计年产能为2500万吨。 ...

跃矿周度发运报告 2025/6/5 研究员: | 美典 | | | | | | | | 从业资格号 P03122523 投资咨询号 陶存辉 从业资格号 F03099559 投资咨询号 张章 从业资格号 F03106996 投资咨询号 商臣 从业资格号 F03100815. 投资咨询号 PF家 从业资格号 F03144159 投资咨询号 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Z0019832 | | | 20020955 | | | Z0021418 | | | | Z0021807 | | | Z0022199 | | | | | | | | | | | 简评，本轮会球"石发运总量841（+24）万吨。具体来看，澳洲发运环球下降，巴西和车主流发运环比回升。澳洲方面，力敌发运环比减少，同比微磨。8%，7%和北主流发运得德，整体发运小幅减少，同比凯加灯19万吨。巴西方 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - Jefferies has downgraded Rio Tinto's rating from "Buy" to "Hold" due to multiple adverse factors including an upcoming CEO transition, increased U.S. aluminum import tariffs, and expectations of softening iron ore prices [1][2] Group 1: Company-Specific Factors - The downgrade is influenced by concerns over the upcoming CEO change and the impact of U.S. aluminum tariffs on the company's operations [1] - There are worries regarding the capital expenditure required for Rio Tinto's lithium business, which may lead to increased capital intensity and lower returns if the company's expectations for the lithium market are overly optimistic [1] - The anticipated increase in capital spending for the lithium business is expected to pressure Rio Tinto's free cash flow, as it may not yield corresponding revenue increases in the short term [1] Group 2: Market and Industry Outlook - Jefferies analysts do not hold a bearish view on the iron ore outlook but believe that escalating U.S.-China trade tensions, a persistently weak real estate market, structural adjustments leading to steel production cuts, and seasonal demand weakness will contribute to a downward trend in iron ore prices [1] - The long-term price forecast for iron ore is set at $90 per ton, with slight downside risks [1] - Jefferies expresses a more favorable investment outlook for Glencore, Anglo American, and Vale compared to Rio Tinto and BHP [2]

Core Viewpoint - Multinational companies, particularly Vale, are focusing on sustainable development and adapting their strategies to the Chinese market to create positive social, economic, and environmental impacts [1][4]. Group 1: Sustainable Development Strategy - Vale integrates sustainability into its business practices, aligning its ESG goals with the United Nations' 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) [4][5]. - The company has set specific targets to reduce its carbon emissions, including a 33% reduction in absolute emissions by 2030 and achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 for Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions [6][20]. - Vale is the first mining company to establish quantified reduction targets for Scope 3 emissions, which account for approximately 98% of its total emissions, primarily from steel production [6][10]. Group 2: Technological Innovations - Vale is deploying AI technologies to optimize resource management, carbon reduction, and supply chain efficiency, including projects like "smart mining" to reduce truck fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions [2][14]. - The company has invested in AI since 2016, deploying around 40 AI products and 1500 models across 80 projects to enhance operational efficiency and safety [14][15]. Group 3: Future Plans in China - China is Vale's largest market, with 187 million tons of iron ore exported in the previous year, accounting for over 60% of its total iron ore sales [17][19]. - Vale plans to invest 70 billion Brazilian Reais in the "New Carajás" project over the next five years to increase iron ore and copper production [17]. - The company is collaborating with Chinese partners to build a mineral processing plant in Oman, expected to process 18 million tons of iron ore annually by mid-2027 [19].

Group 1: Production Capacity and Guidance - In 2024, Vale and Rio Tinto's combined actual production is 65.565 million tons, with a slight increase in guidance for 2025 to 66.050 million tons, reflecting a cautious approach despite significant planned capacity increases of 40.05 million tons [1] - BHP and FMG's combined production for FY2024 is 45.376 million tons, with a downward adjustment in guidance for FY2025 to 45 million tons, indicating a divergence between planned capacity increases and production guidance [1] - Vale's capital expenditure for iron ore projects in 2024 is $3.943 billion, showing ongoing investment in capacity expansion [2] Group 2: Specific Projects and Their Impact - The Serra Sul+20 project aims to increase annual capacity to 12 million tons, with a total investment of approximately $2.844 billion, expected to contribute 500,000 tons of new capacity in 2025 [5] - The VGR1 plant renovation project is designed to restore wet processing capacity, with an annual capacity of 1.7 million tons and an investment of $67 million, expected to contribute 560,000 tons in 2025 [6] - The Capanema capacity maximization project aims to add 1.5 million tons of capacity by 2026, with a total investment of $913 million, contributing 495,000 tons in 2025 [7] Group 3: Production Management and Challenges - Vale maintains a production guidance range of 32.5 to 33.5 million tons for 2025, despite a significant planned capacity increase, reflecting careful management of resource depletion and production rates [11] - BHP's production guidance for FY2025 is adjusted to 25 million to 26 million tons, primarily due to ongoing capacity ramp-up and resource depletion management [14] - FMG's production guidance for FY2025 is set at 19 million to 20 million tons, with a focus on the Iron Bridge magnetite project, which is expected to contribute 700,000 tons of new capacity [19] Group 4: Overall Industry Trends - The overall trend shows a significant mismatch between new capacity additions and production guidance across the four major mining companies, primarily driven by resource depletion and declining ore grades [21] - The combined depletion rate for the four major mines is estimated at 3.9%, leading to substantial reductions in expected production despite planned capacity increases [21]