Core Insights - The report highlights a model for industry ETF allocation that predicts an excess return of 21.4% by 2025, emphasizing sectors with lower crowding and improving trends, particularly in defense and non-banking industries [3][4]. Industry Performance - The top-performing industries in January include: - Defense and Military: 33.2% - Media: 24.1% - Computer: 19.5% - Non-ferrous Metals: 19.3% - Comprehensive: 15.7% - The bottom-performing industries in January include: - Banking: -0.6% - Food and Beverage: 1.0% - Utilities: 1.1% - Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery: 2.4% - Transportation: 4.0% [1]. Fixed Income and Commodity Prices - The basic economic index shows a slight increase to 129.5 points, with a year-on-year increase of 6.1 points. The industrial production index is at 128.0, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.8 points [4]. Transportation Sector - The aviation sector is expected to see long-term growth due to low supply growth and recovering demand, with recommendations for specific airlines based on performance certainty [5]. Overseas Market Insights - The report discusses the rapid expansion of the autonomous driving platform company, WeRide, projecting revenues of 5.5 billion, 9.9 billion, and 18.0 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027, with a target valuation of 643 billion HKD [6]. Retail Sector - The jewelry sector is anticipated to benefit from the upcoming Spring Festival, with strong consumer demand and potential valuation shifts, recommending several key companies for investment [7]. Chemical Industry - The report emphasizes the transformative potential of AI in scientific research, particularly in drug development and materials science, estimating a market size of approximately 1.486 trillion USD across various sectors [9][10].

Core Insights - International spot gold prices have surpassed $4600 per ounce, reaching a peak of $4603.5 per ounce, marking a historical high [1] - The price of gold has been on a strong upward trend since January 1, 2026, breaking through key levels of $4400, $4500, and $4550 [1] - Silver prices have also increased, reaching new historical highs [1] Gold and Silver Prices - As of the latest report, gold is priced at $4582.67 per ounce, with a daily increase of 1.61% [1] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have risen, with several brands' prices for 24K gold jewelry exceeding 1400 yuan per gram, showing an increase of approximately 20 yuan compared to the previous day [1] Market Influences - The recent rise in precious metals is attributed to several factors, including high global geopolitical risks that boost market risk aversion, supporting higher precious metal prices [1] - The ongoing interest rate cut cycle in the U.S. and a cooling labor market contribute to expectations of monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, further supporting gold prices [1] Central Bank Activities - Central banks worldwide are strengthening their gold reserves due to strategic security and asset allocation needs, with a reported increase of 30,000 ounces in December, marking the 14th consecutive month of increases [2] - In total, central banks accumulated 860,000 ounces of gold throughout the year, with China's gold reserves reaching 74.15 million ounces by the end of December 2025 [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the retail sector [3][56]. Core Insights - The retail sector is expected to benefit from increased policy support, with leading companies poised for growth [1][3]. - The overall consumption environment in 2025 is projected to be stable, with structural highlights emerging, particularly as consumption policies become clearer [1][12]. - The report identifies two main trends for 2026: the continuation of new consumption trends and the anticipated reversal of challenges faced by traditional consumption [2][20]. Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - In 2025, the SW retail index increased by 11.6%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 6.1 percentage points, while the beauty care index rose by only 0.4%, lagging behind the CSI 300 by 17.35 percentage points [1][16]. - The retail sector's performance was initially strong in the first half of 2025 but faced a decline in the second half due to a shift in market focus towards technology [1][16]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests several sectors for investment: 1. **Gold and Jewelry**: The sector is entering a consumption peak, with low valuations and expected growth in same-store sales and channel expansion. Recommended companies include潮宏基, 菜百股份, and 周大福 [3][56]. 2. **Beauty and Personal Care**: The sector is returning to low valuations, with traditional leaders showing signs of recovery. Recommended companies include 上美股份 and 珀莱雅 [3][56]. 3. **Offline Retail**: The end of the year is a peak sales period, with potential positive impacts from CPI recovery. Recommended companies include 名创优品 and 永辉超市 [3][56]. 4. **Cross-border E-commerce**: Companies are expected to benefit from reduced external tariff impacts, with recommendations including 小商品城 and 安克创新 [3][56]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts and investment ratings for key companies, all rated "Outperform" for 2025 and 2026, including 潮宏基, 上美股份, and 珀莱雅, with respective PE ratios indicating growth potential [5][59]. Recent Industry Data Tracking - As of November 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 43,898 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.3%. The growth was influenced by high base effects and the timing of promotional events [26][30]. - Online retail sales for the first 11 months of 2025 reached 144,582 billion yuan, growing by 9.1%, with physical goods online retail accounting for 25.9% of total retail sales [28][30]. Policy Support and Future Outlook - Recent policy initiatives emphasize the importance of boosting consumer spending, with a focus on increasing the consumption rate and stabilizing demand through various measures [13][24]. - The report anticipates that traditional consumption leaders will gradually improve their performance as they adapt to new market conditions and innovate their product offerings [24][20].

1月12日早盘，国际金价直接冲上4600美元/盎司，国内金店也跟着"蹭蹭"往上调。周生生、老庙黄金这些大牌足金饰品，一下涨到1429元/克，比前一天贵了 29元。有些一口价金饰更夸张，一夜之间贵了1.5万，看得人心脏一紧。 回收店那边更是热闹，排队的人比奶茶店还多，老板忙到手软："今天回收量是平时三倍。" 金店里，新人们一边喊贵，一边又不敢不买："婚期等不起，再涨就更买不起了。" "金价又涨了？我金饰还没到手，价格先飞了！" 金价为什么这么猛？ 最近黄金市场的热闹程度，完全可以拍成一部抢金风云！ 其实原因挺现实：全球央行都在买金、国际局势不稳、利率又在往下走。 简单说，就是大家都想找点"安全感"，黄金就成了首选。 但这波涨价也把人群分得很清楚：新人硬着头皮买。投资客趁机卖。普通人默默绕道金店。 金价涨得这么快，大家的焦虑也跟着飙升。有人说黄金是硬通货，也有人感叹："安全感越来越贵了。" 未来会不会继续涨？没人敢打包票。但有一点很稳：黄金不是暴富神器，它只是时代情绪的晴雨表。 ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for the gold and jewelry sector, highlighting strong consumer resilience and potential valuation switching opportunities during the Spring Festival [3]. Core Insights - The gold and jewelry sector is expected to maintain strong performance during the Spring Festival, driven by enhanced product and operational capabilities of leading brands, which are increasingly appealing to high-end consumers [1][2]. - The report emphasizes a trend of brand differentiation, where companies with strong product and brand power are likely to continue gaining market share, particularly in regions like Beijing, where retail performance is significantly above the national average [2]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - Historical growth rates for gold and jewelry from 2021 to 2025 are projected at +98.7%, +19.5%, +5.9%, +5.0%, and +5.4%, respectively, indicating a robust growth trajectory compared to the overall retail sector [1]. - In 2025, the retail sales of gold and jewelry in Beijing increased by 40.5%, outperforming the national average of 13.5% [2]. Consumer Trends - The report notes that leading brands are launching innovative products, such as zodiac-themed jewelry, to capture consumer interest during the festive season [1]. - The price of gold is expected to rise from 622 RMB per gram at the beginning of 2025 to 975 RMB per gram by the end of the year, with leading brands maintaining a diverse product offering in the 2000-3000 RMB price range [1]. Brand Analysis - Companies like Chaohongji, Zhou Dafu, and Laopuhuangjin are highlighted as key players to watch, with potential for significant market share gains due to their strong brand positioning and innovative product strategies [3]. - The report suggests that brands such as Zhou Dsheng and Laofengxiang are actively seeking transformation opportunities through channel adjustments and product innovations [2].

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Outperforming the Market" [4] Core Insights - The probiotic market in China is expected to exceed 140 billion CNY by 2025, with a CAGR of 12.4% from 2019 to 2024 [11][12] - The second-generation probiotics, such as AKK strains, show significant advantages over first-generation probiotics, which are primarily preventive and transient [12][13] - The competitive landscape indicates that leading brands are facing pressure, while second and third-tier brands are rising, particularly through online channels [15][20] Summary by Sections Probiotic Market Overview - The C-end probiotic market in China is projected to grow from 647.7 billion CNY in 2018 to 1188.5 billion CNY in 2023, with a CAGR of 12.4% [11] - The gastrointestinal probiotic market is expected to reach 310 billion CNY by 2024, with a CAGR of 12% from 2019 to 2024 [11] Competitive Landscape - Leading brands like WonderLab and Life Space have seen a slight decline in market share, with WonderLab's GMV on Tmall and Douyin at 1.36 billion CNY in 2025, down 4.5% year-on-year [15] - Second and third-tier brands, such as Jiangzhong and Purmeo, have gained market share, increasing by over 2% [15] - The product offerings are evolving from basic probiotics to "probiotic+" series, indicating a shift towards more complex formulations [20] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends companies with strong organizational structures and management capabilities in the beauty care sector, such as Maogeping and Shangmei [28] - In the gold and jewelry sector, it suggests focusing on brands with strong pricing power and craftsmanship, recommending Laopu Gold and Chaohongji [28] - For the cross-border e-commerce sector, it highlights the potential of companies like Xiaoshangpin City and Jiaodian Technology due to easing trade conflicts and AI integration [28]

Group 1: Domestic Gold Market - The domestic gold market experienced a strong rally today, with major brands significantly increasing their prices, reaching new highs [1] - The highest gold prices were reported by Chow Sang Sang and Lao Miao at 1429 CNY per gram, while the lowest was from Cai Bai at 1392 CNY per gram, resulting in a price difference of 37 CNY per gram, which has notably widened compared to previous days [1] - Detailed price changes for various brands include Lao Miao at 1429 CNY (+22), Liufu at 1424 CNY (+20), and Zhou Dafu at 1426 CNY (+20) [1] Group 2: Gold Recycling Prices - The gold recycling prices have also surged today, with significant price differences among brands [2] - The recycling price for gold is reported at 1011.30 CNY per gram, while other brands like Lai Zi Gold and Zhou Sheng Sheng have prices of 1047.50 CNY and 1037.20 CNY respectively [2] Group 3: International Gold Market - Spot gold maintained an upward trend last Friday, breaking through the 4500 USD mark and closing at 4509.13 USD per ounce, with a rise of 0.71% [3] - Today, spot gold reached a new high, surpassing 4600 USD, currently reported at 4575.58 USD per ounce, reflecting a 1.45% increase [3] - The rise in gold prices is attributed to heightened geopolitical tensions and ongoing central bank gold purchases, alongside expectations of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] - Recent U.S. non-farm payroll data showed an increase of 50,000 jobs in December, which was below the expected 60,000, contributing to mixed views on the Fed's rate cut outlook [3] - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve and U.S. political stability have led to increased investment in gold as a safe-haven asset [3] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in Ukraine and the Middle East, are also influencing gold prices, with potential conflicts escalating [3]

Group 1 - Hainan's duty-free sales achieved a strong start in the new year, with sales exceeding 1.21 billion yuan in the first week, representing an 88% year-on-year increase [2] - The number of duty-free shopping transactions reached 824,000, with 149,000 visitors, reflecting growth of 30.3% and 38.3% respectively [2] - Domestic brands are seeing increased sales due to new policies allowing certain categories of goods to be sold in duty-free stores with tax exemptions, enhancing their competitiveness [2] Group 2 - Four government departments have issued a joint opinion to encourage trade unions to increase cultural and sports activities, aiming to unleash consumer potential and meet the growing cultural needs of workers [3] - The opinion suggests increasing the proportion of union funds allocated to cultural and sports activities and promoting collective negotiations for paid vacations [3] Group 3 - The investment outlook for 2026 suggests focusing on high-growth sectors supported by policies and technology, including duty-free shopping, silver-haired tourism, and parenting consumption [4] - New consumption trends are expected to maintain demand, with leading companies in sectors like trendy toys, tea drinks, and health products positioned for growth [4] - Innovations in retail and international expansion are anticipated to create new growth opportunities, with specific companies identified as beneficiaries [4] - The AI+ application sector is expected to flourish in 2026, with accelerated commercialization and various themes emerging [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the continued bullish trend in precious metals, particularly gold and silver, driven by geopolitical tensions and rising debt in developed economies [4] - Gold and silver futures prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange have increased by 3.96% and 11.72% respectively during the week, reflecting heightened market volatility [4] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also risen, with some brands reporting prices exceeding 1400 yuan per gram [4] Group 2 - Major gold jewelry brands in China, such as Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang, have seen their gold prices rise, with specific prices reported at 1406 yuan per gram for Chow Tai Fook, reflecting a daily increase of 1.01% [6] - The increase in gold prices has led to heightened trading risks, prompting major banks like Bank of China and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China to issue trading alerts and adjust rules for gold transactions [6]

Core Viewpoint - The light industry and beauty care sector is expected to stabilize and improve by 2026, driven by domestic demand policies and steady export growth, despite facing certain pressures in the broader environment [2] Domestic Demand - The "14th Five-Year Plan" year is anticipated to see an increase in domestic demand policies, coupled with a growing consumer pursuit of high-quality living, which opens up significant growth opportunities for the industry [2][3] Export Potential - The cross-border e-commerce penetration rate has substantial room for improvement, and the improvement of international relations along with the demand boost from emerging markets will further expand the market, injecting momentum into the industry's overseas expansion [2][3] Company Insights - Companies with core technology and brand advantages are expected to seize opportunities, with cutting-edge technology enhancing product competitiveness and brand strength breaking the price-performance competition [2] - These companies are likely to benefit from domestic demand and explore overseas markets through global layouts, leading the growth in the trend of high-quality industry development [2] Investment Focus - **Beauty Sector**: Focus on high-end skincare and makeup brands with Eastern cultural characteristics such as Maogeping (01318) and Lin Qingxuan (02657), as well as companies like Marubi Biotechnology (603983.SH) showing marginal improvements [3] - **Home Furnishing**: Attention on leading companies with strong channel capabilities and multi-category layouts like Oppein Home Group (603833.SH) and Kuka Home (603816.SH), as well as Man Wah Holdings (01999) benefiting from the anticipated recovery in the US real estate market due to Federal Reserve rate cuts [3] - **Two-Wheel & Motorcycle**: The two-wheeler market is generally stable with a natural replacement cycle, and companies like Yadea Technology (01585), Aima Technology (603529.SH), and Ninebot (689009.SH) are under focus as market expectations are currently pessimistic [3] Light Industry Consumption - **Personal Care**: Companies with a big product strategy and all-channel expansion capabilities such as Baiya Co., Ltd. (003006.SZ) and Weigao Medical (300888.SZ) are noteworthy [4] - **Stationery**: Product and channel optimization are key for stationery companies adapting to current consumer trends, with attention on Morning Glory (603899.SH) and Qixin Group (002301.SZ) [4] Jewelry Sector - Focus on Laopu Gold (06181), which is expected to see performance growth due to continuous channel expansion and market breakthroughs [5] Export Companies - Companies with significant technical barriers and brand advantages in high-demand segments such as Haoyang Co., Ltd. (300833.SZ) and Yiyi Co., Ltd. (001206.SZ) are of interest [5]