证券研究报告 | 2025年06月30日 食品饮料周报（25 年第 26 周） 优于大市 飞天茅台价格已有企稳迹象，大众品关注新渠道、新产品 本周（2025 年 6 月23 日至 2025 年6 月27 日）本周食品饮料板块上涨 0.02%， 跑输上证指数 1.89pct。本周食品饮料板块涨幅前五分别为甘化科工 (21.22%)、金达威(17.54%)、欢乐家(13.91%)、桂发祥(11.33%)和*ST 莫高 (10.82%)。 白酒：飞天茅台价格已有企稳迹象，白酒基本面或将加速探底。据国家统计 局数据，1-5 月全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额 27204.3 亿元，同比下 降 1.1%；酒、饮料和精制茶制造业营业收入 6647.3 亿元，同比增长 2.7%， 利润总额 1164.9 亿元，增长 4.3%。本周白酒指数下跌 1.7%，需求平淡，预 计第二季度表观业绩承压。本周（6/23-6/27）白酒 SW 下跌 1.66%，伊力特、 天佑德酒、顺鑫农业、洋河股份涨幅领先。基本面看，需求压力仍然较大， 第二季度业绩表现预计平淡，酒企更注重市场健康度，短期仍将以去库存、 促动销为主要工作，中长期更加重视消 ...

Core Viewpoint - Liu Yonghao, the founder of New Hope Group, is actively making moves in the capital market, including share reductions in New Dairy and potential control transfers in Feima International [1][2][3] Group 1: New Dairy - Universal Dairy Limited (UDL), the controlling shareholder of New Dairy, plans to reduce its stake by up to 25.82 million shares, representing 3% of the total share capital, within three months [1] - New Dairy reported a revenue of 2.625 billion yuan for Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.42%, and a net profit of 133 million yuan, up 48.46% [1] - The stock price of New Dairy is currently at 17.58 yuan, down nearly 7%, with a market capitalization of 15.131 billion yuan [2] Group 2: Feima International - Feima International announced plans for a potential transfer of control, with New Hope Investment Group considering selling part or all of its stake [2] - The investment party may acquire 532 million shares (20% of total shares) or all shares of a subsidiary, New Zengding, which currently holds 29.9% of Feima International [2] - Feima International's revenue for Q1 2025 was 54.66 million yuan, with a net loss of 768,200 yuan [3]

Group 1 - The increasing health awareness among parents has led to a growing preference for organic baby food, particularly organic milk powder, which is seen as a safer and more nutritious option [1][2] - Organic farms require a three-year soil purification process to ensure the absence of harmful substances such as herbicides, pesticides, and hormones, adhering to natural growth methods [1] - Organic milk powder must contain at least 95% organic ingredients and avoid synthetic additives, with production processes designed to prevent chemical contamination [1] Group 2 - Ming Yi International, a leading Chinese dairy company with nearly 30 years in the national nutrition health sector, offers the high-end organic milk powder brand "Mu Lan Chun," which boasts a 97% organic purity and comprehensive nutrition [2] - The Mu Lan Chun A2 organic milk powder features eight organic systems, including organic pastures and cows, and is certified by national authorities, exceeding EU standards [2] - The formula includes 100% organic A2 protein, beneficial probiotics, and a combination of nutrients designed to support the overall growth and development of babies [2]

Core Viewpoint - Universal Dairy Limited (UDL), the controlling shareholder of New Dairy (002946.SZ), plans to reduce its stake by up to 25,820,305 shares, representing 3% of the total share capital, due to funding needs [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, New Dairy reported operating revenue of 10.665 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.93% year-on-year [4][5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 538 million yuan, an increase of 24.80% year-on-year [4][5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 579 million yuan, up 24.47% year-on-year [4][5] - The net cash flow from operating activities was 1.491 billion yuan, down 4.23% year-on-year [4][5] Recent Quarterly Performance - In Q1 2025, New Dairy's operating revenue was 2.625 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.42% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 2025 was 133 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.46% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 141 million yuan, up 40.35% year-on-year [6] - The net cash flow from operating activities for Q1 2025 was 161 million yuan, compared to a negative cash flow of 8 million yuan in the same period last year [6] Shareholder Information - UDL holds 560 million shares, accounting for 65.07% of the total share capital, and is planning to reduce its holdings [1] - Liu Chang and Liu Yonghao are the actual controllers of New Dairy, with Liu Chang holding 100% of UDL [1][2]

Summary of the Conference Call for New Dairy Industry Company Overview - **Company**: New Dairy Industry - **Focus**: Low-temperature products, particularly fresh milk and specialty yogurt Key Points and Arguments Industry and Product Focus - **Optimistic Outlook**: New Dairy Industry holds an optimistic view on low-temperature products for 2025, focusing on key categories and core channels to drive annual performance growth [2][4] - **Product Composition**: Low-temperature products account for approximately 50% of total sales, with ambient products at about 40%. Within low-temperature products, fresh milk and specialty yogurt each represent around 20% of the market [2][5] Financial Performance and Goals - **Net Profit Margin Target**: The company aims to double its net profit margin by 2025, with a plan to increase it by 0.5 to 1 percentage points this year through product structure optimization and new product launches [2][9] - **Gross Margin Improvement**: In Q1 2025, the gross margin increased by approximately three percentage points, driven by a product structure upgrade and a double-digit growth in low-temperature products, while ambient products saw a decline of about 10% [4][25] Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) Strategy - **DTC Channel Growth**: Currently, the DTC channel accounts for about 16% to 17% of total sales, with a higher profit margin of around 40%. The company plans to increase this to 30% by 2027 [2][10] New Product Development - **Focus on Innovation**: New Dairy Industry emphasizes new product development, with new products accounting for at least double-digit revenue each year. Recent launches include various yogurt products and organic fresh milk [2][8] Market Challenges and Adjustments - **Performance of Summer Brand**: The Summer brand underperformed in 2024 due to a high proportion of ambient products. Adjustments in personnel, product structure, and channel expansion are expected to improve performance in 2025 [2][16] - **Pressure on Ambient Products**: Ambient yogurt and milk products face pressure, with slight improvements noted in April and May 2025, but overall growth remains a concern [4][7] Competitive Landscape - **Industry Competition**: The dairy industry is experiencing intense competition, particularly in the ambient milk market, with no significant growth in volume but stable pricing. Local brands are leveraging differentiation strategies to compete [24] Cost Management and Supply Chain - **Cost Control**: The company has a flexible sourcing structure, with only 30% of raw milk sourced from its own farms. This flexibility helps maintain stable revenue and profit growth despite fluctuations in raw milk prices [4][18] Future Outlook - **Long-term Growth**: The company does not provide specific quantitative forecasts but expects overall revenue growth driven by low-temperature categories, which present structural opportunities despite a slowing beverage industry [6] Additional Insights - **Student Milk Market**: The domestic student milk market is contracting, but the company is promoting self-ordering channels, which currently account for about 4% to 5% of main business revenue [28] - **Potential M&A Activity**: While focusing on organic growth, the company remains open to M&A opportunities, particularly in economically developed regions [30] Product Development Directions - **Innovation in Dairy Products**: The company is exploring new directions in product development, including unique milk sources and innovative flavors in low-temperature yogurt [31] Dividend and Share Buyback Plans - **Dividend Policy**: The company plans to maintain a dividend level at least equal to that of 2024, with specific plans to be announced after the semi-annual report [32]

Group 1 - Degute plans to acquire control of Haowei Technology through a combination of share issuance and cash payment, with stock suspension starting from June 30, 2025, and a transaction plan to be disclosed within 10 trading days [3] - Chengdu XianDao has terminated the acquisition of approximately 65% equity in Nanjing Haina Pharmaceutical Technology due to failure to reach consensus on core terms after due diligence [4] - China Rare Earth clarifies that recent changes in non-independent directors and senior management are normal personnel arrangements aimed at optimizing governance structure and enhancing management efficiency [5] Group 2 - Qixiang Tengda will conduct routine maintenance on its 60,000-ton acetone and methanol plant starting June 30, 2025, for an estimated 60 days, which will reduce product output but not significantly impact annual operational performance [6] - Universal Dairy Limited, the controlling shareholder of New Dairy, plans to reduce its stake by up to 3% within three months following a 15 trading day period after the announcement [8] - Nanjing Baolifeng plans to reduce its stake in Magu Technology by up to 3% through trading methods within three months after a 15 trading day period following the announcement [9] Group 3 - Qin Port Holdings' major shareholder, Qinhuangdao State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, intends to reduce its stake by up to 2% through block trading within three months after a 15 trading day period following the announcement [11] - Ever Union (H.K.) Limited, a significant shareholder of Mindray Medical, plans to reduce its holdings by up to 5 million shares, approximately 0.41% of the total share capital, within a specified period [12] - Hongdou International Investment plans to reduce its stake in General Shares by up to 0.31% through trading methods within three months after a 15 trading day period following the announcement [13] Group 4 - Unigroup Guowei repurchased 775,460 shares for approximately 49.62 million yuan on June 27, 2025, representing about 0.09% of the total share capital [15] - *ST King Kong's subsidiary signed a significant computing power sales contract worth approximately 399.36 million yuan, which is expected to positively impact the company's operational performance in 2025 [17]

减持计划详情 新希望乳业控股股东Universal Dairy Limited（UDL）近日披露减持计划，拟在特定时间内减持不超过总 股本3%的股份，引发市场关注。 公告显示，截至公告披露日，UDL持有新希望乳业股份5.6亿股，占公司目前总股本的65.07%。此次计 划在自本公告披露之日（2025年6月30日）起15个交易日后的3个月内，即2025年7月21日至2025年10月 20日，以集中竞价或大宗交易的方式减持公司股份合计不超过2582.0305万股，即不超过公司总股本的 3%。 其中，拟以集中竞价方式减持公司股份不超过860.6768万股（占公司目前总股本比例1%），以大宗交 易方式减持公司股份不超过1721.3537万股（占公司目前总股本比例2%）。若此期间公司有送股、资本 公积转增股本、可转债转股等股本变动事项，减持股份数量将进行相应调整。减持价格将根据减持时的 二级市场价格及交易方式确定。 UDL表示，此次减持原因是企业资金需求，股份来源为公司首次公开发行股票并上市前已持有的公司 股份。 承诺履行情况良好 登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 减持影响几何 虽然本次减持计划实施存在不 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic dairy market in China has entered a deep adjustment phase since 2024, with liquid milk experiencing its first decline in years. Major dairy companies are increasingly focusing on international markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, to explore new growth opportunities [1][9]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The ice cream business has become a breakthrough for Chinese dairy companies in Southeast Asia, with brands like Aice and Joyday gaining significant market share [2][3]. - In 2024, Aice achieved a revenue of 3 billion yuan and became the market leader in Indonesia, while Joyday also ranked among the top three in Thailand and Indonesia [2][3]. - The Southeast Asian market is characterized by a young population and a growing demand for dairy products, with per capita disposable income in countries like Malaysia and Thailand being relatively high [10][11]. Group 2: Strategic Approaches - Companies like Yili and Mengniu have adopted a strategy of entering the market with ice cream products due to the favorable climate and consumer preferences in Southeast Asia [4][10]. - Yili has localized its product offerings after extensive market research, leading to the successful introduction of over 50 localized products since 2018 [5][6]. - Mengniu has utilized domestic marketing strategies, such as providing free ice cream cabinets to small retailers, to establish a presence in the competitive market [6][7]. Group 3: Challenges and Opportunities - Despite the success in ice cream, challenges remain for broader dairy product exports, including issues of food safety trust and high production costs compared to major exporting countries [14][16]. - The logistics and supply chain complexities in Southeast Asia pose additional challenges, with many regions lacking adequate infrastructure [14][15]. - The potential for growth in the Southeast Asian dairy market is significant, as current per capita liquid milk consumption is low, indicating room for expansion [11][12].

Core Insights - Miaokelando (600882) has increased its overall cheese market share to over 39%, maintaining its industry leader position despite a revenue decline of 8.99% in 2024 [1] - The company reported a revenue of 1.233 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year growth of 6.26%, and a net profit of 82.3967 million yuan, which surged by 114.88% [1] - Challenges such as imbalanced revenue structure, supply chain weaknesses, and insufficient R&D investment pose uncertainties for the company's future [1] Revenue Recovery and Concerns - Despite a strong performance in Q1 2025, the revenue recovery path for Miaokelando is fraught with challenges, including an 8.99% revenue decline in 2024 due to a strategic reduction in low-margin trading businesses and price wars affecting core products [2] - The company has seen a 14% year-on-year increase in revenue from its catering industrial series, providing customized solutions for leading brands like Nayuki [2] - Non-recurring gains, such as government subsidies of 13.728 million yuan accounting for 16.65% of net profit, raise concerns about the sustainability of profit growth [2] - The sales expense ratio has improved from 25.3% in 2022 to 16.3% in Q1 2025, with a 28% increase in online channel revenue [2] Supply Chain Challenges and Domestic Substitution - Miaokelando has faced significant challenges in its supply chain, including the termination of a joint venture project with Modern Dairy aimed at ensuring stable milk supply [3] - The company has initiated the "Golden Milk Source Belt Plan" to establish dedicated milk source bases in Inner Mongolia and Heilongjiang, achieving 30% domestic substitution for raw cheese materials [3] - The Longcheng raw cheese factory is expected to be operational by 2026, which will enhance local supply chain competition and mitigate risks from international milk price fluctuations [3] R&D Investment and Market Competition - Despite winning an industry technology advancement award for its "Mousse Cheese Key Technology," Miaokelando's R&D investment has decreased, with R&D expenses down 10.25% in 2024, representing only 1% of revenue [4] - The company faces intense competition from differentiated products like "High Calcium Low Salt" cheese from Cheese Doctor and imported brands like Kiri [4] - Market concentration is increasing, with Miaokelando's cheese market share exceeding 37% in 2024, while foreign brand Kiri's sales surpassed 500 million yuan [4] Financial Pressure and Strategic Balancing - The company's financial pressure is evident, with a rising debt ratio and a 30.91% year-on-year increase in short-term borrowings, leading to a 141.59% rise in financial expenses [5] - Management plans to apply for a credit line of 5 billion yuan while focusing on maintaining stable sales expenses and enhancing efficiency in marketing expenditures [5] - The company's transformation reflects a shift in the Chinese cheese industry from quantity growth to quality improvement, emphasizing supply chain control and product innovation [5]

Core Viewpoint - Sichuan Jule Food Co., Ltd. has successfully passed the IPO guidance acceptance for the Beijing Stock Exchange, marking a significant step in its fifth attempt to enter the capital market since 2017 [1] Group 1: Company Background and Market Position - Jule Food, established in 1966, entered the dairy sector in 1996 and has become well-known for its "Suanle Milk" product, achieving a market share of 54.6% in Chengdu and 20.7% in Sichuan, ranking fifth nationally in 2022 according to Nielsen [2] - The company is primarily owned by Jule Group, which holds 45.87% of the shares, with Chairman Tong Enwen as the actual controller [2] - From 2020 to 2024, the company's revenue grew from 994 million to 1.641 billion, and net profit increased from 130 million to 232 million, indicating a continuous growth trend [2] Group 2: Challenges and IPO History - Jule Food has faced significant challenges in its IPO journey, with four failed attempts since 2017 due to various issues, including incomplete materials and regulatory warnings [3] - After realizing the increased scrutiny on the main board, the company shifted its focus to the Beijing Stock Exchange and successfully completed the guidance process in a record time of nine months [3] Group 3: R&D and Innovation - The company has historically had low R&D investment, with expenses of 6.3 million, 4.741 million, and 5.149 million from 2022 to 2024, representing only 0.42%, 0.30%, and 0.31% of revenue, respectively [4] - To meet the Beijing Stock Exchange's requirement for intellectual property, Jule Food has applied for 10 patents since September 2024, with 6 granted, which will be crucial for its IPO process [4] Group 4: Future Prospects and Market Strategy - Regional dairy companies like Jule Food face dual challenges of expanding beyond local markets and avoiding the "post-IPO peak" performance trap [5] - The effectiveness of the funds raised and the implementation of a national expansion strategy will be critical in determining the company's ability to overcome industry challenges if it successfully lists on the Beijing Stock Exchange [5]