早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 3 月 20 日星期五 研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周四尿素主力合约 2605 价格下跌 6 元至 1859 元/吨，华中主流地区现货价格下跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 10 元至 1860 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓增加 3338 手至 27.5 万手，空头持仓增加 6087 手至 31.7 万手。 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面，尿素行业日产 20.9 万吨，较上一工作日减少 0.1 万吨；较去年同期 增加 1.2 万吨；开工率 88.9%，较去年同期 87.7%上涨 1.2%。 | | | | | 2、库存方面，中国尿素企业总库存量 80.89 万吨，较上周期减少 14.8 万吨，环比 | | | | | 减少 15.5%。尿素港口样本库存量 16.7 万吨，环比-2.2 万吨。 | | | | | 3 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The energy and chemical industry continues to be in a pattern where prices are more likely to rise than fall due to the damage of more energy infrastructure and geopolitical tensions. The supply of energy is disrupted, and although the downstream demand is weak, it is not the main contradiction at present. The overall situation of the chemical industry is expected to maintain a strong and volatile pattern, led by crude oil [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Overall Situation**: The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is tense, affecting the supply of energy and chemical products. The supply of energy facilities is at risk, and the market is worried about inflation and the tightening of central bank liquidity policies. The stock markets in China and the United States have declined. The damage to Qatar's LNG export capacity has changed the narrative of LNG oversupply. The chemical industry chain is in a process where upstream production decreases and downstream and terminal production gradually recovers [1]. - **Specific Varieties** - **Crude Oil**: The risk of energy facility operation in the Middle East remains, and the shortage pattern continues. The low traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz, the potential release of Iranian floating storage is limited, and the inventory pressure of Persian Gulf countries may lead to further production cuts. The price is expected to be volatile and strong [8]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures price fluctuates at a high level, waiting for the geopolitical situation to become clear. The refinery profit has deteriorated, and the inventory is accumulating. The long - term valuation is expected to decline [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Supported by the geopolitical situation, it fluctuates at a high level. The high import dependence and strong geopolitical attributes push up the price, but the long - term demand is negatively affected by the substitution of natural gas and photovoltaic [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Follows the crude oil to fluctuate at a high level. It has product attributes, and the valuation has been repaired. It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand and green energy substitution [11]. - **PX**: The cost support is strong, but the increase is limited due to the drag of polyester demand. It is expected to maintain a high - level wide - range consolidation [12]. - **PTA**: The device restarts unexpectedly, and the supply - demand margin is under pressure. The price is expected to follow the upstream cost to fluctuate at a high level [13]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply further declines, and the supply - demand margin improves. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [19]. - **Benzene**: Driven by the geopolitical situation, it fluctuates strongly. The supply is reduced, and the demand is acceptable. The inventory is expected to decrease in advance [16]. - **Styrene**: The geopolitical situation brings positive effects on supply and demand, and it fluctuates strongly. The supply may be reduced, and there is an expected increase in export demand [17]. - **Short Fiber**: The upstream and downstream are in a strong game, and the transactions are highly differentiated. The price follows the cost to fluctuate at a high level [20]. - **Bottle Chip**: The intraday transaction fades, and the price difference is large. The price follows the upstream raw material to fluctuate [22]. - **Methanol**: Affected by the geopolitical conflict, it fluctuates within a range. The inventory decreases, and the demand from the MTO industry is expected to increase [25]. - **Urea**: The commercial storage is released in a concentrated manner, and it is stable and slightly weak. The supply is stable at a high level, and the agricultural demand support weakens slightly [26]. - **LLDPE**: The refinery operation rate declines, and it should be viewed with caution. The raw material end is supported by the geopolitical situation, but the downstream demand is affected by price increases [30]. - **PP**: The geopolitical situation boosts the support of the raw material end, and it fluctuates. The raw material cost provides support, and the spot trading is average [31]. - **PL**: The refinery operation rate declines, and the downstream is still under pressure, fluctuating. The downstream buying demand recovers, but the powder profit is under pressure [32]. - **PVC**: The geopolitical disturbance still exists, and it is cautiously optimistic. The supply decreases, the inventory is reduced, and the cost of ethylene - based PVC increases [33]. - **Caustic Soda**: The supply decreases, and it is cautiously optimistic. The overseas and domestic production reduction scale expands, and the export improves [33]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - **Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring** - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. have different changes, which reflect the market's expectations for different periods of each variety [35]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipts of different varieties also show different trends, which can help analyze the market supply - demand relationship and price trends [36]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: The cross - variety spreads between different varieties such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, etc. change, which can reflect the relative price relationship between different varieties [37]. - **Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring** - Although the specific content of each variety in this part is not detailed in the text, it is expected to focus on the basis and spread analysis of specific chemical varieties to help investors understand the price relationship and market trends of different varieties.

Group 1: Oil Price Surge and Economic Impact - The recent surge in oil prices, with Brent crude reaching $107.38 per barrel and WTI at $96.32, is primarily driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly affecting Iranian and surrounding oil facilities, leading to a significant reduction in global oil trade through the Strait of Hormuz [2] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that the global oil market is facing its most significant supply disruptions in years, with geopolitical risk premiums becoming a dominant factor in international energy pricing [2] - The rise in oil prices is expected to have a cascading effect on various sectors, including logistics, chemicals, agriculture, and consumer goods, impacting the overall economy [2] Group 2: Impact on Trucking Industry - Fuel costs account for 35%-40% of total expenses in the trucking industry, making it the second-largest expenditure after toll fees [8] - A 10% increase in fuel prices can lead to a 3-5 percentage point decline in gross margins for small logistics companies and individual drivers, who are already under pressure from both shippers and end consumers [8] - The rising fuel prices have forced truck drivers to adjust their operational habits, such as reducing air conditioning use and minimizing stops to save on fuel costs [9] Group 3: Retail Sector Response - Retailers are experiencing increased costs due to rising oil prices, with significant price hikes observed in essential goods such as eggs (up by 0.8 yuan per pound) and vegetables (up by an average of 12%) [15] - The increase in logistics costs and raw material prices is leading to a decline in daily sales and profits for retailers, with one store reporting a drop in daily revenue from 8,500 yuan to 7,200 yuan [16] - Retailers are cautious about raising prices significantly, fearing loss of customers, while also struggling to absorb rising costs without passing them on to consumers [17] Group 4: Chemical Industry Challenges - The chemical industry is facing production slowdowns due to rising raw material costs linked to oil prices, with some companies reducing production capacity and implementing job rotations [19] - The cost of raw materials, particularly naphtha, has surged, leading to a situation where production costs exceed sales prices, creating a risk of losses for companies [19] - Workers in the chemical sector are experiencing reduced incomes as performance bonuses are tied to production levels, which are declining due to the economic pressures from rising oil prices [20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On March 19, 2026, equity index futures dropped, and most commodities declined, with energy and chemicals leading the rise and precious metals plunging [9][11]. - Geopolitical tensions have cut crude oil supplies, and the crude oil market is expected to remain volatile but strong [17][21]. - Venezuela's expected rise in oil production will exert long - term downward pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil, while short - term trends depend on Middle East geopolitical developments [23][26]. - The situation in Iran is severe, and the methanol market has priced in a geopolitical premium. It is expected to trade in a range - bound pattern despite weak fundamentals [31][35]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 China Futures - 1.1 Overview - On March 19, equity index futures dropped (IC dropped 2.4%, IH dropped 1.9%), and commodities declined. Energy & Chemicals led the raise, and Precious Metals plunged [9][11]. - In commodity futures, the top three gainers were LPG (up 11.0% with a 1.4% month - on - month increase in open interest), LSFO (up 10.5% with a 10.1% month - on - month increase in open interest), and Methanol (up 8.6% with a 3.1% month - on - month increase in open interest). The top three decliners were Silver (down 10.3% with a 0.8% month - on - month increase in open interest), Platinum (down 7.7% with a 1.9% month - on - month decrease in open interest), and Tin (down 6.6% with a 3.2% month - on - month decrease in open interest) [10][12]. 3.2 China Futures - 1.2 Daily Raise 3.2.1 Crude Oil - On March 19, the crude oil main contract rose 8.5% to 815 yuan/barrel (INE). Geopolitical tensions have cut supplies, and the market faces a supply deficit, with the price outlook being volatile but strong [17][21]. - Middle East geopolitical events include a missile attack on Qatar's Ras Laffan Industrial City and Iran's warning to retaliate against attacks on its energy infrastructure [18][19]. 3.2.2 Fuel Oil - On March 19, the main contract of fuel oil rose 6.9% to 5011 yuan/ton (SHFE). Venezuela's expected oil production increase will put long - term downward pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil, and short - term trends depend on Middle East geopolitics [23][26]. - Current geopolitical tensions are pushing up fuel oil futures prices, and the medium - to - long - term replacement of fuel oil for power generation by natural gas and solar power is a bearish factor [24][25]. 3.2.3 Methanol - On March 19, the main contract of methanol rose 8.6% to 3182 yuan/ton (ZCE). The market is pricing in a geopolitical premium due to the severe situation in Iran and is expected to trade in a range - bound pattern [31][35]. - Domestic methanol prices rose, producer and port inventories decreased, and arrivals increased. Expectations of higher operating rates in the coastal MTO sector boosted demand [32][33][34]. 3.3 Important News - 2.1 Macro News - The People's Bank of China will actively defuse key - area financial risks and maintain the stable operation of stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets [42][43]. - The Federal Reserve kept the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%, the second consecutive pause in rate adjustments [42][43]. - The United States and Israel attacked key Iranian natural gas facilities in South Pars and Assaluyeh [42][43].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views Market Analysis - **First Stage (Late February - March 2):** On February 28, 2026, the US attacked Iran, and Israel and Iran clashed. On March 1, Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei was killed, and the Strait of Hormuz became congested. The涨幅 order was Brent > Methanol > (PX, PTA, BZ, EB, LL, PP, EG) > PVC. Chemicals' price increase was mainly due to cost - push from crude oil, and the supply - side logic was based on the proportion of production capacity in the Strait of Hormuz. Methanol had the largest proportion, followed by olefins, and aromatics also benefited from cost - push [4]. - **Second Stage (March 3 - Mid - March):** The涨幅 order was (BZ, EB) > Brent > (PX, PTA, BZ, EB, LL, PP) > (Methanol, EG, PVC). The logic shifted from cost - push to supply - reduction due to refinery and cracker cut - backs. Asian cracker cut - backs had a greater impact on pure benzene and styrene. EG and PVC followed the price increase slowly due to high inventory [5]. - **Third Stage (Mid - March):** The涨幅 order was PVC > (Brent, PX, PTA) > EG > Methanol > PP > LL > BZ > EB. Domestic and overseas refineries and crackers cut back production further. PVC, a low - valued product, had the fastest price increase, and EG also had a good price increase [6]. - **Fourth Stage (Since March 18):** The Middle - East situation worsened. The涨幅 order was Methanol > EG > PP, PE. Aromatics with low Middle - East production capacity performed worse than olefins [7]. Strategy - Maintain a cautious strategy of buying on dips for hedging for MA, PX, TA, BZ, EB, LL, PP, EG and other varieties [8] 3. Summary by Directory Background and Purpose - The report analyzes the impact of the Iran conflict on the chemical industry in four stages, summarizes the reduction of chemical production capacity at home and abroad, and predicts the trend of chemical products under different scenarios of the Iran situation and the Strait of Hormuz [13][14] First Stage: Iran War Breaks Out, Potential Supply Decline in Middle - East Chemicals and Crude Oil Cost - Push Logic - From late February to March 2, the price increase of chemicals was mainly due to cost - push from crude oil and the potential impact on overseas production capacity if the supply in the Strait of Hormuz was affected. Methanol was the most affected, followed by PE, EG, and PP. Aromatics were mainly affected by cost - push from crude oil. The涨幅 order was Brent > Methanol > (PX, PTA, BZ, EB, LL, PP, EG) > PVC [15][19] Second Stage: Crude Oil Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is Blocked, Supply Decline in Domestic and Overseas Refineries and Crackers - From March 3 to mid - March, the logic shifted to supply - reduction. Domestic refineries like Zhejiang Petrochemical and Asian refineries in South Korea cut production. Aromatics were the strongest, followed by olefins. EG and PVC followed the price increase slowly. The涨幅 order was (BZ, EB) > Brent > (PX, PTA, BZ, EB, LL, PP) > (Methanol, EG, PVC) [20][30] Third Stage: Crude Oil Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz Remains Blocked, Further Supply Decline in Domestic and Overseas Refineries and Crackers - In mid - March, domestic and overseas refineries and crackers cut production further. PX was the most affected, followed by other aromatics and olefins. PVC had the fastest price increase. The涨幅 order was PVC > (Brent, PX, PTA) > EG > Methanol > PP > LL > BZ > EB [31][38] Fourth Stage: Supply - Side Impact Focuses on the Middle - East, Not Just Asian Refinery Cracker Cut - Backs - Since March 18, the Middle - East situation worsened. The focus shifted to the potential supply decline in the Middle - East. Methanol, EG, PP, and PE had higher price increases, while aromatics performed worse [39][44] Analysis of Chemical Product Strategies under Different Iran War Scenarios - **Based on Current Supply - Demand Analysis:** MA > (PX, PTA > BZ, EB) > (PP > LL > EG) > PVC [45][46] - **Saudi Arabia Not Further Involved, Strait of Hormuz Blocked, Refinery Cut - Backs Continue:** Chemical products will continue to rise, and profits may expand. The impact on specific products depends on the degree of refinery cut - backs [46] - **Middle - East War Escalates:** - If Iran attacks Saudi Jubail, EG > (PP, PE) > EB [46] - If Iran attacks Qatar, UAE, and Kuwait, the direct impact on chemicals is small, but propane for PP is more affected [46] - If Iran's South Pars Gas Field is continuously attacked, methanol ranks first [47] - **Strait of Hormuz Reopens:** Chemical prices will decline. PP may be more resilient, and aromatics from South Korea and Japan may also be relatively strong [48]

Core Viewpoint - The central theme of the articles revolves around the Chinese central bank's commitment to maintaining stability in financial markets, alongside ongoing geopolitical tensions affecting global energy security and commodity prices [1][6][7]. Group 1: Financial Market Stability - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has reiterated its intention to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, utilizing tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and government bond transactions to ensure ample liquidity and low financing costs [1][7]. - The PBOC aims to align monetary supply growth with economic growth and price level expectations, emphasizing the importance of financial services in key sectors like technology innovation and small to medium enterprises [7]. Group 2: Commodity Market Insights - Oil prices are expected to remain volatile due to ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with the market pricing in current conflict levels without extreme escalations [2][14]. - Precious metals have experienced fluctuations, with initial declines due to rising oil prices and subsequent rebounds as market conditions evolve. Long-term trends for gold remain bullish due to factors like geopolitical risks and diversification of central bank reserves [2][18]. Group 3: Stock Market Dynamics - Stock indices have faced downward pressure from geopolitical disturbances, with significant trading volumes observed. The market is transitioning from a "expectation-driven" phase to a "profit-driven" phase as companies begin to report earnings [3][11]. - The financing balance in the stock market has seen an increase, indicating potential investor confidence in established industry leaders as earnings reports are released [3][11]. Group 4: Industry-Specific Developments - The pharmaceutical company Kunming Pharmaceutical Group reported a significant decline in revenue and profits for 2025, attributed to complex external environments and internal transformation challenges [9]. - The agricultural sector is experiencing mixed signals, with Brazilian soybean production forecasts being adjusted downward despite overall expectations of increased yields [25]. Group 5: Global Economic Indicators - Recent economic indicators show a rebound in major metrics such as industrial output and fixed asset investment, suggesting a positive start to the year for the national economy [12]. - The U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates and its inflation outlook are influencing market expectations, particularly in the commodities sector [12][18].

Core Viewpoint - BASF, the German chemical giant, announced a price increase of up to 30% for various product categories in the European market starting March 18, citing significant fluctuations in raw material prices, supply chain constraints, and rising logistics and energy costs as the main drivers [1][2]. Group 1: Price Increase Details - The price increase will affect multiple business segments, including household care, industrial cleaning, and industrial formulation agents, indicating widespread cost pressures across the chemical industry [1][2]. - BASF's decision to raise prices is a response to the dramatic volatility in raw material prices and the tightening of supply availability, alongside increased domestic and cross-continental logistics costs [1]. Group 2: Industry Context - The German Chemical Industry Association recently issued a warning about potential supply chain disruptions due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, highlighting that rising oil and gas prices are impacting other raw materials [1]. - The association's leadership emphasized that the longer the conflict persists, the more severe the consequences will be for the industry, reflecting heightened awareness of geopolitical risks [1].

Investment Focus - The report highlights a selection of companies in the energy sector with strong performance ratings, including ADNOC Gas, ADNOC Drilling, and Saudi Aramco, all rated as "Outperform" with projected P/E ratios for 2026 and 2027 [1]. Crude Oil Sector - The global crude oil market is expected to continue fluctuating at high levels due to geopolitical conflicts and transportation constraints, with upstream exploration and production companies maintaining substantial profit elasticity [3][49]. - Recommended companies include ExxonMobil, Chevron, Saudi Aramco, and CNOOC, which are characterized by low costs and stable cash flows, providing strong cycle-resilient capabilities amid oil price fluctuations [49]. Natural Gas Sector - LNG shipping risks and a tight supply-demand balance in Europe are keeping natural gas prices elevated, with North American and Australian companies benefiting from geopolitical security and rising export demand [4][50]. - Key targets in this sector include ADNOC Gas, Shell, TotalEnergies, and CNOOC, which have advantages in integrated gas resource reserves and export chains [50]. Coal Sector - Energy security has become a central focus for national policies, enhancing the defensive value of inland coal resources, which offer cost-effectiveness and stable supply advantages amid high oil and gas prices [4][51]. - Recommended companies include Baofeng Energy, Hualu Hengsheng, and China Coal Energy, which are seen as core allocations for defensive assets due to their ample cash flows and low exposure to transportation risks [51]. Chemical Sector - Rising energy costs are reshaping the chemical industry landscape, with disruptions in the Middle Eastern ethylene-PE chain widening Asian CIF spreads and restricted exports of Iranian methanol, ammonia, and urea pushing up international prices [5][51]. - Companies such as Sinopec, TotalEnergies, and SABIC are highlighted for their refining and chemical integration capabilities, which allow for cost pass-through [51][52]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests a defensive investment strategy in the energy sector, focusing on coal and coal chemical sectors for stable cash flows in the short term, while mid-term investments should target natural gas and LNG-related companies to capitalize on supply-demand rebalancing [5][54]. - The overall portfolio should prioritize companies with strong energy security, high self-sufficiency, and controllable industrial chains, balancing cyclical elasticity and robust defense to navigate geopolitical volatility [54].

新疆雪峰科技（集团）股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）根据上海证券交 易所《<上海证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 3 号——行业信息披露>第十 三号——化工》有关规定，现将公司 2025 年年度主要经营数据公告如下： 注：以上数据为生产企业的产销量及收入。 二、主要产品和原材料的价格变动情况 注：以上数据为生产企业的产品价格。 1 证券代码：603227 证券简称：雪峰科技 公告编号：2026-011 新疆雪峰科技（集团）股份有限公司 2025 年年度主要经营数据的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 三、其他说明 以上生产经营数据来自本公司内部统计，为投资者及时了解本公司生产经营 概况之用，该等数据未经审计，也并未对本公司未来经营情况作出任何明示、默 示的预测或保证，敬请投资者审慎使用。 特此公告。 新疆雪峰科技（集团）股份有限公司董事会 2026 年 3 月 20 日 2 主要原材料 2025 年 平均价格 2024 年 平均价格 变动比例（%） 尿素（元/吨） 1,342.71 1,773.76 -24. ...

Core Viewpoint - WanHua Chemical reported record revenue of 203.24 billion yuan in 2025, marking an 11.62% year-on-year increase, but net profit decreased by 3.88% to 12.53 billion yuan due to price declines in the chemical industry [4][5]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 203.24 billion yuan, surpassing the 200 billion yuan mark for the first time, setting a historical high [4]. - Net profit for the year was 12.53 billion yuan, a decline of 3.88% year-on-year, while the non-recurring net profit fell by 9.10% to 12.14 billion yuan, indicating pressure on core business profitability [4]. - The overall chemical industry is experiencing a cyclical downturn, with over 90% of tracked chemical products seeing year-on-year price declines, leading to squeezed profit margins across the sector [4][5]. Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - Despite challenges in traditional business, WanHua Chemical is expanding its revenue through various initiatives, particularly focusing on battery materials to cultivate a second growth curve [5][6]. - The company entered the lithium battery sector in 2020 by acquiring Zhoneng Lithium Battery and has set a target for its battery materials business to reach 100 billion yuan [6]. Group 3: Industry Positioning - WanHua Chemical leverages its chemical production experience and R&D capabilities to integrate "chemicals + new energy," creating a differentiated competitive advantage [7]. - The company aims to establish a closed-loop industrial chain from upstream resources to downstream applications and recycling, with plans to achieve 1 million tons of phosphate iron and phosphate lithium capacity by 2027 [7][8]. Group 4: Production Capacity and Projects - A new battery materials industrial park with an investment of 16.8 billion yuan is under construction in Yantai, with a planned capacity of 500,000 tons of phosphate lithium and 300,000 tons of graphite anode [8]. - The company has existing production capacity of 50,000 tons of phosphate lithium in Meishan, with an expansion project expected to be completed by the end of 2026, bringing total capacity to 220,000 tons [8]. Group 5: Technological Innovation - WanHua Chemical is increasing R&D investment, covering lithium battery anode and cathode materials, sodium battery materials, binders, solvents, and hydrometallurgy [9][10]. - The company has successfully launched its fourth-generation phosphate lithium product and is positioned as a "dark horse" in the industry, ranking tenth in China's lithium phosphate lithium cathode material shipments in 2025 [10]. Group 6: Market Outlook - The year 2026 is anticipated to be crucial for the new energy battery materials industry, with expectations of supply-demand optimization and profitability recovery [12]. - Companies are advised to accelerate high-end transformation, secure long-term orders, and enhance resource supply management to seize profit opportunities amid industry differentiation [12].