智通财经APP获悉，高盛认为，由于能源需求强劲，全球石油需求的增长将持续时间比此前预期的还要 长。而就在几天前，国际能源署(IEA)也改变了其关于石油需求即将达到峰值的论断。分析师Yulia Grigsby和Daan Struyven在周四的一份报告中指出，石油需求量将从 2024 年的1.035亿桶/日增长至2040 年的 1.13 亿桶/日。该银行去年曾预测石油需求将在 2034 年达到峰值。 高盛的分析师写道："我们并不认为低碳技术会有重大突破。即便是为了实现石油需求峰值，我们预计 在 2030 年之后石油需求仍会处于长期平稳状态。以液化天然气为动力的卡车不太可能在除中国以外的 地区大规模推广。" 不过，高盛公司提醒称，长期的石油需求预测具有极大的不确定性，而且往往会大幅调整。他们指出， 低碳技术的快速发展以及潜在经济衰退的持续影响都存在风险。 高盛公司指出，由于低碳技术及基础设施建设方面的瓶颈问题，再加上能源需求的增加，公司对经济增 长峰值的预测进行了调整。该行表示，在经历了道路运输领域的长期平稳期后，石化产品将成为石油消 费的主要驱动力，而航空业也将做出显著贡献。 此前，IEA在其年度《世界能源展望 ...

高盛指出，数据中心目前已占美国用电需求的约6%。用电需求激增，加之缺乏新增发电产能，导致13 个区域电网中已有8个的备用电力容量处于或低于临界水平，使其易受电价飙升或电力短缺影响。到 2030年，这种紧张局面可能限制数据中心的发展。这些设施承载着海量算力，其运行和冷却均需消耗大 量电力。 "有限的有效备用电力容量可能成为美国数据中心进一步发展的瓶颈。相比之下，中国电网已经拥有可 观的备用容量，我们预计这一容量将进一步扩大。"高盛分析师称。(作者/箫雨) 高盛的魏宏岑(Hongcen Wei，音译)等分析师在周四的一份研报中写道："我们预计中国的备用电力容量 将保持充足，以满足数据中心及其他行业日益增长的用电需求。" 中国目前拥有全球约四分之一的数据中心容量，可能很快就会追上市占率达44%的全球领头羊美国。 凤凰网科技讯 北京时间11月14日，据彭博社报道，高盛集团称，中国的大规模发电能力建设将使其在 数据中心扩张竞赛中比美国更具优势。这些数据中心支撑了AI的发展。 报道称，中国一直在大举建设电力设施，在可再生能源、燃煤电厂和核反应堆领域的投建规模位居世界 前列。到2030年时，中国很可能会有约400吉瓦的备用 ...

Core Insights - The 2025 Shanghai Stock Exchange International Investor Conference focused on "Value-Driven Open Empowerment - New Opportunities for International Capital Investment and M&A," highlighting the integration of international capital with listed companies [1] - Since the release of the "Six Opinions on Deepening the Reform of the Listed Company M&A Market," the A-share market has seen a surge in M&A activities, with 203 major asset restructuring projects totaling approximately 765.09 billion yuan [1] Group 1: New Trends in M&A - A new active cycle in A-share M&A has emerged, characterized by precise cross-border M&A, normalization in new productive forces, and deepening industrial mergers [2] - Cross-border M&A is shifting towards a focus on "core asset concentration," enhancing international competitiveness for A-share companies [2] - The biopharmaceutical and new energy sectors have become key areas for foreign investment in China, driven by the attractiveness of advanced industries [2] Group 2: Challenges in M&A - The A-share M&A market faces challenges that require enhanced capabilities from market participants, particularly in cross-border M&A integration [4] - Cultural integration is crucial for successful post-merger operations, necessitating a deep understanding of local conditions and cultural characteristics [5] - The complexity of transaction structures and the need for specialized service capabilities are increasing for intermediary institutions [5] Group 3: Investment Considerations - The optimization of market structure and diversification of valuation systems challenge investors' ability to assess value and identify risks [7] - High-growth technology M&As present both opportunities and uncertainties, requiring in-depth industry research [7] - The "time lag trap" in hard technology investments complicates the evaluation of a company's core competitiveness, necessitating a broader perspective beyond financial statements [7]

Core Viewpoint - SoftBank has completely sold its stake in Nvidia, valued at approximately £4.4 billion (around ¥41.08 billion), raising concerns in the market about a potential bubble in the AI-driven stock market [1][3]. Group 1: SoftBank's Actions - SoftBank has sold all 32.1 million shares of Nvidia it held, indicating growing anxiety over high valuations in the tech sector [3]. - The sale is intended to fund new AI investments, particularly supporting CEO Masayoshi Son's significant bet on OpenAI, requiring over $30 billion (approximately ¥213.44 billion) [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The CFO of SoftBank, Yoshimitsu Goto, expressed uncertainty about whether the market is in an AI bubble, which may cause investor unease [3]. - Analysts suggest that the reduction in holdings indicates that Masayoshi Son believes the momentum that pushed Nvidia to become the first company with a market cap of $5 trillion is waning [3]. - Recently, Nvidia's stock price fell by 3% in New York, despite maintaining a market cap of around $4.7 trillion, having doubled since April and increased over tenfold in three years [3]. Group 3: Broader Market Concerns - Concerns about an "AI bubble" have been escalating, with leaders from major investment banks like Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley warning of a potential market correction [3]. - Hedge fund manager Michael Burry has bet £835 million against Nvidia and Palantir, reflecting skepticism about the sustainability of current valuations [4].

Core Insights - Hong Kong's IPO fundraising has surpassed $30 billion this year, nearly doubling from last year's $10 billion and significantly up from less than $6 billion two years ago, indicating a robust market environment [1] - The presence of international long-term investors and sovereign funds has increased, with cornerstone investments totaling approximately $12 billion this year, of which foreign capital accounts for 42% [1] - The "A+H" listing theme has emerged as a significant trend, with 17 out of 85 IPO projects being A+H, contributing over $18 billion, or 60% of the total fundraising in Hong Kong this year [1][2] IPO Market Dynamics - The trend of A-share companies preparing for Hong Kong IPOs is expected to continue, with more high-tech firms like those in semiconductors and robotics anticipated to list [2] - The return of Chinese concept stocks to Hong Kong is likely to provide additional support to the IPO market, helping to mitigate delisting risks for these companies [2] - Recent occurrences of new stocks breaking below their issue price may be attributed to industry positioning, suggesting that not all companies possess scarcity in the Hong Kong market [2] New Mechanisms and Market Performance - The new IPO mechanism introduced in August has revitalized the market, allowing for a fixed public subscription ratio of 10%-60%, which benefits institutional investors and reduces selling pressure [3] - Data shows that since the implementation of the new mechanism, 22 out of 25 new stocks have opted for the new approach, with 21 of them experiencing price increases on their first trading day [3] - The participation rate of the company in new listings has been notable, with 29.1% in the past 24 months, 32.0% in the last 12 months, and 33.8% this year [3]

来源：瑞恩资本RyanbenCapital 01等 香港今年IPO表现亮眼。 中金公司董事总经理、资本市场部执行负责人施琦在周二(11月11日)举行的「媒体工作坊」上表示，今 年IPO融资规模已经突破300亿美元，较之于去年的100亿美元，与前年的不足60亿，无论从规模、主 题、以及参与度都振奋人心。 施琦透露，目前中金公司在手的IPO储备项目已超100家，其中不乏A股头部企业的港股上市计划。 美股公司回港助纾风险 美股中概股回港潮，则为香港IPO市场提供额外支撑。近期许多在美国上市的中概股，回港双重主要上 市，对于中概股本身也具有提振作用，相信可纾缓一部分退市的风险。 施琦又提及，部分中概股在港上市后，带动美股股价造好，相信可以鼓励更多中概股积极考虑来港双重 上市。 不过近期亦有新股破发，施琦认为或是因行业定位，在港股未算具备稀缺性，但最终的股价表现，相信 仍会是对业绩的兑现。 长线外资参与基石投资更活跃 施琦强调，今年国际长线投资者、主权基金都更加活跃，甚至罕见成为基石投资者。其相信IPO强劲的 势头可以在2026年延续。 年内的基石投资总额约为120亿美元，按照区域口径划分，其中外资占比高达42%。 她 ...

今日周四（11月13日）亚盘时段，美国经济数据发布的恢复，或为美联储12月降息铺平道路。12月交割 的黄金期货盘中上涨57.8美元，报4174.1美元。截至发稿，COMEX黄金期货暂4198.50元/克，跌幅 0.07%，最高触及4213.00元/克，最低下探4183.20元/克。目前来看，COMEX黄金期货短线偏向震荡走 势。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 据高盛经济学家预计，美国劳工统计局可能会在本周五发布被推迟的9月非农就业报告，因为该报告的 数据在政府关门前已经采集完毕。 美国众议院议员今日返回华盛顿特区，就结束长达43天的政府停摆进行投票。众议院议长迈克·约翰逊 表示，他认为这项由参议院艰难达成妥协、并得到特朗普总统支持的法案将快速获得通过。面对众议院 民主党人的强烈反对，他需要让本党内部意见不一的议员保持一致——民主党领导人正敦促党员投票反 对该法案。 共和党占多数的众议院将在当地时间周三稍晚就结束美国史上最长政府停摆的协议进行投票。政府关门 不但拖累经济，也导致官方数据缺失，让决策官员和金融市场只能靠民间指标衡量经济状况。 【最新黄金期货行情解析】 技术面来看，12月黄金期货多 ...

Core Insights - The longest government shutdown in U.S. history is expected to end, leading to the release of official economic data, although this data may not be entirely reliable [1][4] Economic Data Release - Delayed data is anticipated to be released gradually, with Morgan Stanley economists predicting the September non-farm payroll report may be published shortly after the shutdown ends, as the data has already been collected [4] - The release of October data will take longer and may lack critical indicators such as the unemployment rate, which could impact the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions in December [4][9] Employment Trends - Current U.S. employment data is concerning, with Goldman Sachs economists estimating a decrease of 50,000 in non-farm payrolls for October, marking the second monthly decline since December 2020 and the largest drop in over five years [4] - A report from a job placement company indicated that planned layoffs in October exceeded 150,000, the highest level for that month since 2003 [4] Federal Reserve Implications - The incomplete and potentially unreliable official employment and other data may lead the Federal Reserve to pause interest rate cuts [9] - CPI and consumer data are also expected to be unclear, with Morgan Stanley economists suggesting that October CPI and consumption data may not be available before the Fed's monetary policy meeting on December 9-10 [9] Inflation Data Concerns - UBS economists expressed pessimism regarding the release of the October CPI data, which was scheduled for November 13, as the Labor Statistics Bureau was closed for the entire month, resulting in no price data collection [12] - The October CPI data is crucial for calculating subsequent months' inflation indices, meaning that inflation data for November, December, and even April of the following year could be distorted [12] - There is a possibility that the October unemployment rate and CPI data may never be accurately published due to partial or complete data collection failures [12]

央视网消息：记者11月12日从上海证券交易所国际投资者大会了解到，随着我国资本市场高水平制度型开放不断拓展，境外投资者持有A 股的市值提升，从2020年底的超3万亿元增长到目前的超3.5万亿元。 与会嘉宾认为，一年多来，A股主要股指平稳上行，明晟中国指数年内跑赢全球市场；尤其是我国坚定不移稳妥有序推进资本市场双向开 放，为各类国际投资者营造放心投的制度环境。 中国证监会副主席 李明：目前，境外投资者持有A股的市值超过3.5万亿元，是A股市场的重要参与力量。展望未来，中国资本市场对外开 放的大门只会越来越大。推动更多期货期权品种纳入对外开放品种范围，提高外资机构参与中国资本市场的便利度。 记者观察到，无论是场内发言，还是场外交流，"投资中国就是投资未来"已经成为外资机构高管们的共识。 摩根资产管理环球主席 白博文：对摩根大通而言，中国是我们的关键战略重点。在中国，我们拥有最大的外商独资公募基金公司，管理 着超过2600亿元人民币的资产。 谈及中国的"十五五"规划，外资机构高管表示，相信中国一定能够达成规划目标，从而带来企业盈利能力的提升和股票投资的良好回报。 宏利投资管理全球首席投资官 浦科令：（"十五五"规划 ...

Core Points - The longest government shutdown in U.S. history is coming to an end as the House of Representatives is set to vote on a temporary funding bill [1][4][6] - The bill will allow the government to reopen at least until the end of January [1] - However, the underlying issues, particularly regarding the Affordable Care Act insurance subsidies, remain unresolved, indicating potential future shutdown risks [2][3][5] Government Operations - The government has been shut down for 43 days, marking a record duration [8] - The reopening process will take several days, with some agencies potentially taking a week or longer to resume normal operations [14] - Key issues include updating payroll systems to compensate for unpaid work during the shutdown and clearing backlogs in funding, loan applications, and customer service [15] Economic Impact - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the six-week shutdown will reduce Q4 GDP by 1.5 percentage points, resulting in a net loss of approximately $11 billion [9] - The shutdown has led to significant disruptions, including unpaid federal employees, stalled public services, and increased flight delays [9] Market Reactions - Historically, the S&P 500 index has averaged a 2.3% increase in the month following the end of a government shutdown [17] - Analysts suggest that the market may experience a delayed correction after the shutdown ends, with the potential for the S&P 500 to approach 7000 points by mid-December [17] - Concerns remain about the impact of the shutdown on upcoming employment data and the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate decisions [17] Sector-Specific Insights - The airline industry is expected to face challenges in quickly restoring flight capacity, with estimates indicating a daily economic impact of $285 million to $580 million due to reduced flight operations [16] - In the commodities market, the anticipated reopening of the government may alleviate concerns over dollar liquidity, leading to a stabilization in gold prices [18]