1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical risk in the Middle East remains high, and the uncertainty of the situation between Iran and Israel continues, which has a significant impact on the financial and commodity markets [1][12][13]. - The majority of financial data in May fell short of expectations, with corporate debt gradually becoming short - term, and the willingness of residents to actively increase debt remaining low. There is a need to observe the sustainability of the rebound in M1 growth rate [2][23][24]. - The A - share market is affected by external geopolitical risks, and the pressure on the molecular end of stock market pricing is still large. The next stage requires observation of domestic policy changes [3][27]. - The new bio - fuel policy in the United States will significantly tighten the balance sheet of US soybean oil and increase the demand for US soybean crushing, which will have a chain reaction on the prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil [4][31][32]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump hopes that Iran and Israel can reach an agreement, and the 6 - month consumer confidence index of the University of Michigan has rebounded, with inflation expectations significantly falling. However, due to the impact of oil prices, US inflation still faces upward risks. Gold prices are driven by the military conflict between Israel and Iran, and the short - term market continues to focus on the situation in the Middle East [12][13]. - Investment advice: The short - term trend of gold prices is dominated by the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, with increased volatility, so attention should be paid to risks [14]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The "Brigade of the Righteous" in Iraq warns that if the US intervenes in the conflict between Israel and Iran, it will attack US interests in the region. Trump claims that Iran and Israel "will reach an agreement" to suspend the conflict. The geopolitical risk remains high, and the US dollar index is expected to fluctuate in the short term [15][17][18]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index will fluctuate in the short term [19]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The consumer confidence index in June increased, and inflation expectations decreased. However, the intensification of the Middle East conflict may lead to concerns about re - inflation. If the oil price rises to $100 per barrel, the CPI in June may rebound to around 3%, increasing the difficulty of the Fed's decision - making. US stocks still face the risk of correction before the situation improves [20][21][22]. - Investment advice: Geopolitical risks increase inflation risks, and US stocks still have a risk of correction before the situation improves [22]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The financial data in May fell short of expectations. The fundamentals are still favorable for the bond market, and the long - term bullish view remains unchanged. However, short - term bonds will fluctuate in the near term, and it is recommended to lay out medium - term long positions on dips [23][24][25]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to lay out medium - term long positions on dips. Pay appropriate attention to T when going long on the long - end [25]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The A - share market is affected by external geopolitical risks, and the pressure on the molecular end of stock market pricing is still large. The next stage requires observation of domestic policy changes [3][27]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to allocate various stock index futures evenly to cope with the rotational pattern [27]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The US EPA proposed to increase the bio - fuel blending volume from 2026 to 2027, which will significantly tighten the balance sheet of US soybean oil and increase the demand for US soybean crushing. It will have a chain reaction on the prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil [4][31][32]. - Investment advice: US soybean oil still has room to rise, and palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil will follow suit, but the increase in rapeseed oil is expected to be relatively weak [32]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The net profit of Cristal Union in the 2024/25 fiscal year decreased by 62%. The supply in Europe is sufficient, and the import from Ukraine is large, resulting in low sugar prices. The expected decline in Brazilian sugar cane production in 2025 increases the uncertainty of Brazilian sugar production [33][35]. - Investment advice: Zhengzhou sugar may rebound in the short term, but the overall weak pattern is difficult to change. Attention should be paid to the arrival rhythm of imported sugar, the quotation of processed sugar, and the performance of the external market [36]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The inventory of port cotton continues to decline, and the USDA June report has a slightly positive impact on the cotton market, but the overall supply - demand pattern is still relatively loose. The downstream textile industry is in a off - season, which drags down cotton prices [37][39][40]. - Investment advice: The cotton market may fluctuate repeatedly. A cautious and slightly optimistic view is held on the future market, and attention should be paid to macro - cotton dynamics and downstream demand changes [41]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The five major varieties continue to de - stock slightly, but there is a differentiation among varieties. The demand for rebar and hot - rolled coil shows a downward trend, and the steel price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [42][44]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to adopt a rebound hedging strategy for the spot end [45]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The expected increase in the US bio - fuel blending standard will drive up the price of CBOT soybeans and domestic soybean meal futures. The supply of domestic soybean meal is expected to increase, and the spot basis will continue to be under pressure [46][48]. - Investment advice: The prices of CBOT soybeans and domestic soybean meal futures are expected to fluctuate strongly, and the spot basis of soybean meal will remain weak [48]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The spread between cassava starch and corn starch has narrowed. The supply - demand situation of corn starch may be gradually improving, and the spread between cassava starch and corn starch may temporarily stabilize [49]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see due to the complex influencing factors of the CS - C spread [50]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The price of wheat has fluctuated, and the substitution advantage of wheat has slightly increased. The spot price of corn is expected to rise first and then fall, and the basis is expected to strengthen [50][51]. - Investment advice: For the 07 contract, speculative long positions are recommended to take profits opportunely. For the 09 contract, shorting is not recommended, and it is expected to fluctuate with a first - strong - then - weak trend. Attention can be paid to the opportunity of shorting the 11 and 01 contracts at high prices [51]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Alumina) - The national alumina inventory is 312.9 million tons, and large - scale discount transactions are gradually emerging. The market is oscillating weakly [52]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see [53]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The price of nickel is oscillating weakly at a low level. The cancellation of the price limit of downstream stainless steel has released market pessimism. The supply of nickel ore and nickel iron is in excess, and the medium - term price of nickel is expected to decline [54][55]. - Investment advice: In the short term, it is possible to sell put options on dips. In the medium term, attention can be paid to the strategy of shorting at high prices in Q3 [55]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The LME warehouse in Hong Kong is expected to receive the first batch of copper next week. The escalation of the Middle East geopolitical war may suppress copper prices through the impact on the US dollar index. The domestic inventory is decreasing, and the short - term price is difficult to decline trend - wise [56][59][60]. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, it is recommended to wait and see as copper prices are expected to continue to oscillate at a high level. For arbitrage, wait for the opportunity of positive inter - period arbitrage of Shanghai copper [60]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - After the rebound, the downstream's willingness to take delivery is insufficient, and the basis of the spot market is weakening. The short - term fundamentals are difficult to improve, and the market may oscillate weakly [61][62]. - Investment advice: It is not recommended to chase short positions at the current level. Existing short positions can be held, and a strategy of shorting on rebounds is recommended [62]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Anhui Huasheng's polysilicon wafer technical transformation and expansion project has been accepted for environmental assessment. The spot trading volume is low, and the price of some products is declining. The supply in June is expected to be 960,000 tons, and there is a possibility of inventory reduction. The decision of leading enterprises on production reduction will have a major impact on the market [63][64][65]. - Investment advice: Before the leading enterprises reduce production, the market is bearish. A strategy of short - term shorting and long - term going long is recommended, and attention should be paid to the position management [65]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The production of industrial silicon in major producing areas has increased. The supply in Sichuan and Yunnan is expected to increase. The demand is still weak, and the spot price is difficult to rebound significantly [66][67]. - Investment advice: The futures market has rebounded. It is expected to oscillate at a low level, and it is recommended to short lightly after the rebound. Attention should be paid to changes in the supply side and the cash - flow risks of large enterprises [67]. 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The silver pricing coefficient of lead concentrates in June has not changed. The supply of lead is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to be weak until July. The short - term rise of lead prices is temporary, and the medium - term demand may increase marginally [68][69][70]. - Investment advice: In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see and look for opportunities to buy on dips, paying attention to the pressure around 17,000 yuan. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see for both inter - period and internal - external arbitrage [70]. 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Some zinc oxide enterprises are facing environmental inspections, resulting in production cuts. The supply of zinc is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to weaken in the medium term. The inventory is at an inflection point, and the price is expected to decline [71][72]. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, look for opportunities to short at high prices and increase positions appropriately on rebounds. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see for the inter - period spread, and maintain the strategy of positive internal - external arbitrage in the medium term [72]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU carbon price has risen slightly, affected by the geopolitical tension in the Middle East and the shutdown of a French nuclear power plant. The short - term market needs to pay attention to the development of the geopolitical situation [73][74]. - Investment advice: The EU carbon price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [74]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Israel has attacked Iranian energy infrastructure, and the US oil rig count has decreased. The risk of supply in the Middle East has increased, and oil prices are expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term [75][76][77]. - Investment advice: Oil prices are expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term as the market has not fully priced in the geopolitical conflict risk [77]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The spot price of PTA has risen, but the demand is in a seasonal off - season, and the supply is expected to increase. The short - term rise is mainly due to the impact of crude oil prices. It is not recommended to chase long positions directly, and short positions can be established after the geopolitical situation eases [78][79][80]. - Investment advice: It is not recommended to chase long positions directly in the short term, and short positions can be established after the geopolitical situation eases [80]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle - chip factories have increased, and the market trading atmosphere has improved. However, the industry is under supply pressure, and the processing fee is under pressure. Some large factories have plans to reduce production [81][82]. - Investment advice: The processing fee is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term. It is possible to establish long positions for expanding the bottle - chip processing fee at low valuations [82]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The trading of liquid caustic soda in Shandong has remained stable. The supply is relatively stable, and there are still maintenance plans in the future. The demand is affected by the inventory of alumina and the wait - and - see attitude of non - aluminum downstream and traders [83]. - Investment advice: The 09 contract of caustic soda is affected by the overall weakness of commodities, but the large discount of the 09 contract will limit the downward space [84]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The spot price of imported wood pulp has continued to decline, and the demand from downstream paper mills is weak [84]. - Investment advice: The fundamentals of pulp have changed little, and the market is expected to oscillate [86]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder has risen, but the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is low, and the market trading is average [87]. - Investment advice: The fundamentals of PVC have changed little, and the market is expected to oscillate [87]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The price of soda ash in the South China market is general, and the supply is expected to remain high in the short term. The demand from photovoltaic glass is expected to decline, and the market is bearish [88][89]. - Investment advice: In the medium - term expansion cycle, the strategy of shorting soda ash at high prices is still maintained [89]. 3.2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The spot price of float glass has continued to decline, and the market demand is weak. With the arrival of the high - temperature and rainy season, the demand will decline seasonally, and the supply - demand imbalance will intensify [90][91]. - Investment advice: Before the inventory of original - sheet manufacturers is substantially reduced, the spot price of float glass still has room for downward adjustment. The short - term market may be affected by the overall risk preference, and the rebound driven by short - covering is difficult to sustain [91].

Group 1 - The non-ferrous metal industry carbon footprint database has been officially launched, marking a significant step in the establishment of a carbon footprint management system for the industry [1] - The database consists of four core subsystems: online data collection, carbon footprint accounting, carbon footprint analysis and display, and database management [1] - The first phase focuses on developing a carbon footprint database for electrolytic aluminum products [1] Group 2 - The non-ferrous metal industry is a crucial foundational industry for the national economy and a key sector for industrial carbon emissions [1] - The industry has made positive progress in integrating into the green low-carbon development framework and achieving "dual carbon" goals [1] - By 2024, the clean energy usage ratio in the electrolytic aluminum industry is expected to reach 25%, an increase of over 15 percentage points compared to 2015 [2] Group 3 - The production of recycled metals is becoming a core support for achieving "dual carbon" goals, with recycled copper, aluminum, lead, and zinc production expected to reach 19.15 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.1% [2] - The first national standard for product carbon footprint in the industrial sector has been published, providing a solid foundation for carbon footprint quantification in the aluminum industry [2] - The electrolytic aluminum industry has been included in the national carbon market, covering 98 enterprises and nearly 45 million tons of production capacity, accounting for over 60% of global electrolytic aluminum capacity [2] Group 4 - China Aluminum Group is focusing on key links and bottlenecks in carbon reduction, increasing investment in technology and application of results [3] - As an industry leader, China Aluminum Group is leading the establishment of a green low-carbon public service platform and an environmental product declaration platform for the non-ferrous metal industry [3] - The company has successfully constructed a life cycle assessment (LCA) quantitative model system for copper, aluminum, lead, and zinc, supporting the green low-carbon transition of the non-ferrous metal industry [3]

Core Viewpoint - Shenzhen Zhongjin Lingnan Nonfemet Company maintains a stable credit rating of AA+ based on its strong resource reserves, operational advantages, and improved debt repayment indicators, despite facing challenges from fluctuating metal prices and rising inventory costs [2][4][9]. Financial Overview - Total assets increased from 326.57 billion in 2022 to 484.78 billion in 2025 [7]. - Owner's equity rose from 152.95 billion in 2022 to 178.73 billion in 2025 [7]. - Total liabilities increased from 173.62 billion in 2022 to 306.06 billion in 2025 [7]. - Total revenue decreased from 656.47 billion in 2023 to 598.62 billion in 2024, with a net profit of 13.21 billion in 2024 [7][31]. - The operating cash flow showed a decline, with a net cash flow of -2.82 billion in the first quarter of 2025 [7]. Industry Context - The nonferrous metal industry is cyclical and closely tied to global economic conditions, with significant price volatility impacting profitability [11]. - The lead and zinc market is expected to face supply pressures in 2025, with potential price declines due to increased production and changing consumption patterns [12][13]. - Copper prices are projected to rise in 2025, supported by domestic demand, although processing fees are under pressure [15][31]. Company Strengths - The company has rich lead and zinc resource reserves and a complete industrial chain, with significant scale and technical advantages in smelting operations [9][11]. - The company benefits from strong external support from its state-owned parent company, enhancing its operational stability [11][16]. - The company is actively expanding its new materials segment, which is expected to contribute to future growth [19][31]. Risks and Challenges - The company faces challenges from declining processing fees and rising inventory costs, which could pressure profit margins [4][9][26]. - The ongoing construction of new projects may require significant capital expenditures, impacting liquidity [30][31]. - The company must navigate the uncertainties in global economic conditions and commodity prices, which could affect its financial performance [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region's ecological environment department has issued a revised management method for environmental impact assessment (EIA) to strengthen the preventive role of EIA and ensure strict approval for high-pollution projects, aligning with national goals for sustainable development and environmental protection [1][3]. Group 1: Environmental Impact and Regulatory Changes - The approval authority for EIAs of high-pollution industries such as thermal power, steel, non-ferrous metal smelting, and petrochemicals has been centralized to provincial ecological environment departments, reflecting a trend seen in other provinces like Hebei and Qinghai [1][3]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" mid-term evaluation report indicates that key environmental indicators, including energy consumption per unit of GDP and CO2 emissions per unit of GDP, are lagging behind expectations, highlighting the environmental risks associated with rapid industrial growth in these sectors [2][3]. Group 2: Balancing Economic Development and Environmental Protection - The centralization of EIA approval is not merely a transfer of power but a pragmatic measure to balance strict environmental regulation with local economic development needs, ensuring that high-pollution projects do not proceed unchecked [3]. - The need for clear approval standards and a negative list is emphasized to provide local governments with development space while maintaining strict ecological boundaries [3][4]. Group 3: Capacity Building and Systematic Approach - The delegation of EIA approval for projects with lower environmental risks to local levels is part of a broader reform aimed at improving regulatory efficiency, contingent on local authorities having adequate oversight capabilities [4]. - Strengthening local environmental protection capabilities through training and technical support is crucial for effective implementation of the new EIA management system [4]. - A systematic approach to environmental governance is necessary to avoid oversimplification in regulatory practices, ensuring a balanced and effective management system that supports sustainable development [4].

| | 20250613申万期货有色金属基差日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 铜： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | | 锌： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | 摘要 | | | | | 铝： 短期内或以震荡为主。 | | | | 镍： 短期内或以震荡偏强。 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价收低。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价，考验冶炼产量。 | | | | 根据国家统计局数据来看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电力行业延续正增 | 可能短期宽 | | 铜 | 长；汽车产销正增长；家电产量增速趋缓；地产持续疲弱。多空因素交织， | 幅波动 | | | 铜价可能区间波动。关注美国关税进展，以及美元、铜冶炼和家电产量等因 | | | | 素变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收低。近期精矿加工费持续回升。由国家统计局数据来看，国 内汽车产销正增长，基建稳定增长，家电产量增速趋缓，地产持续疲弱。市 | 可能短期宽 | | 锌 | 场预期今年精矿供应明显改善，冶炼供应可能恢复。短期锌价可能宽幅波 | 幅波动 | | | 动，关注美国关税进展，以及美元、锌冶炼和家电产 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The short - term uncertainties for gold are numerous, and it is in a high - level oscillation. The strategic allocation value of gold is high in the long - term. Silver is also in a high - level oscillation, and its market sentiment changes rapidly. Copper is in a high - level consolidation in the short - term, and it is still favored in the long - term. Zinc's rebound is under pressure, with supply increasing and demand weakening. Lead shows a short - term rebound. Tin's rebound is under pressure due to slow复产 and weak smelting. Aluminum has a short - term rebound. Nickel is under pressure to decline. Industrial silicon's short - term disk rebounds from oversold, and it is advisable to short at high prices in the long - term. Carbonate lithium is bearish [1]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Gold and Silver - **Market Conditions**: SHFE gold was at 785.16, up 0.98% from the previous value, and COMEX gold was at 3406, up 0.90%. SHFE silver was at 8819, down 0.93%, and COMEX silver was at 36, up 0.14%. The Shanghai gold - silver ratio was 89.03, up 1.93%. The London gold spot price was $3295, down 1.04%, and the London silver spot price was $33.124, down 8.50% [2]. - **Basic Logic**: US employment and inflation data are weak. Tariff uncertainties are large, and the UK economy has shrunk. In the short - term, geopolitical variables are significant, and in the long - term, the trend of reducing dependence on the US dollar and the dual - easing of fiscal and monetary policies remain unchanged [3]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: For gold, pay attention to the support at 770 and control positions for long - term investment. For silver, its speculative sentiment has temporarily returned. If the price - ratio returns to normal, it will follow the characteristics of gold and base metals. Control positions due to its high elasticity [4]. Copper - **Market Conditions**: The closing price of the SHFE copper main contract was 78580 yuan/ton, down 0.13%. The LME copper price was $9702/ton, up 0.56%, and the COMEX copper price was $484.3/pound, up 0.76%. The spot price of electrolytic copper was 79200 yuan/ton, down 0.28% [6]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas copper ore supply is tight. The domestic electrolytic copper output in May increased, but it is expected to decline in June. COMEX copper is draining global copper inventories, and there is a risk of a soft squeeze on LME copper. High copper prices are suppressing downstream demand [6]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: Wait for copper to fully retrace and stabilize. Observe the support at the 78,000 - yuan level. For industrial hedging, sell at high prices. In the long - term, be optimistic about copper [7]. The short - term range for SHFE copper is [78000, 79500], and for LME copper is [9600, 9800] dollars/ton [8]. Zinc - **Market Conditions**: The closing price of the SHFE zinc main contract was 22030 yuan/ton, down 0.11%. The LME zinc price was $2644/ton, down 0.26%. The spot price of No. 0 zinc was 22310 yuan/ton, up 0.04% [10]. - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, the zinc ore supply is expected to be looser. The domestic refined zinc output is expected to increase in June. Downstream demand is weakening, and the开工 rate of zinc - related enterprises is lower than in previous years [10]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: Temporarily wait and see in the short - term. In the long - term, short at high prices as supply increases and demand weakens. The range for SHFE zinc is [21800, 22400], and for LME zinc is [2600, 2700] dollars/ton [11]. Aluminum - **Market Conditions**: The closing price of the LME aluminum was $2522.5/ton, up 0.24%. The SHFE aluminum main contract was 20395 yuan/ton, up 0.72%. The alumina main contract was 2895 yuan/ton, unchanged. The SMM A00 aluminum spot average price was 20650 yuan/ton, up 1.23% [12]. - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, the overseas macro - trade environment eases, production costs decline, and inventories decrease. For alumina, the overseas bauxite supply is stable, and the domestic production capacity is recovering. There is a short - term supply surplus [13]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: Short on rebounds for SHFE aluminum and pay attention to inventory changes. The main operating range is [19900, 20500]. Alumina operates in a low - level range [13]. Nickel - **Market Conditions**: Nickel prices continued to decline, and stainless steel was under pressure [14]. - **Industrial Logic**: The overseas macro - environment eases. The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines increases, and the cost support weakens. Domestic refined nickel inventory is high, and stainless steel inventory is rising due to the off - season [14]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: Short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, and pay attention to downstream consumption. The main operating range for nickel is [118000, 123000] [14]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Conditions**: The main contract LC2507 decreased in position and dropped more than 1% throughout the day [15]. - **Industrial Logic**: The fundamentals change little. The supply pressure is large, and the terminal demand is in the off - season. The inventory is expected to accumulate, and the rebound's sustainability is questionable [16]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: Hold short positions in the range of [60000, 61500] [16].

Group 1: Fundraising and Investment Trends - New funds are accelerating their market entry, with several funds ending their fundraising early to seize the investment window [1] - Multiple fund companies are purchasing their newly launched equity funds, indicating a positive outlook for the market [1] - In May, the total scale of the top 14 bank wealth management companies reached 23.92 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 330 billion yuan from April [1] Group 2: 5G-A and Low-altitude Economy - 5G-A technology is being applied in various industries, including smart driving and next-generation consumer electronics, providing new growth opportunities for operators [2] - The low-altitude economy is expected to become a trillion-level new market, with a projected market size of 1.5 trillion yuan by 2025 and 3.5 trillion yuan by 2035 [2] Group 3: Corporate Developments - SpaceX's Starship's eighth test flight failure was attributed to a hardware failure in one of its Raptor engines, with no reported public injuries or property damage [3] - Tencent is exploring the possibility of acquiring South Korean game developer Nexon, which has a market value of 15 billion USD [4] - Xiaopeng Motors is negotiating to supply AI chips to other automakers, with expectations that its self-developed chips will be integrated into some Volkswagen models [4] Group 4: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - The US stock market saw slight gains across major indices, with the S&P 500 rising by 0.38% and the Nasdaq by 0.24%, supported by a slowdown in inflation and stable US Treasury auctions [11] - The US dollar index fell by 1%, reaching a three-year low, while the onshore renminbi hit a seven-month high [11]

恒邦股份（002237）公告，公司于近日收到山东证监局出具的《关于对山东恒邦冶炼股份有限公司采取 责令改正措施的决定》和《关于对刘元辉采取监管谈话措施的决定》。其中，《决定书一》主要内容为 公司副总经理刘元辉因涉嫌犯罪被采取取保候审的刑事强制措施，公司未及时披露相关信息，违反了 《上市公司信息披露管理办法》相关规定。山东证监局决定对公司采取责令改正的行政监管措施，并记 入证券期货市场诚信档案数据库。《决定书二》主要内容为刘元辉未及时将上述情况告知公司并配合公 司履行信息披露义务，对上述事实负有主要责任，山东证监局决定对其采取监管谈话的行政监管措施， 并记入证券期货市场诚信档案数据库。公司将严格按照山东证监局的要求，积极整改落实，并在规定时 间内提交书面整改报告。 ...

Domestic Market Overview - The domestic market experienced a fluctuating rise with a decrease in trading volume, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3402.32 points, up 0.52%, and the Shenzhen Component Index closing at 10246.02 points, up 0.83% [1][4][8] - Among the 30 sectors tracked, 28 sectors saw gains, with non-bank financials, agriculture, and metals leading the increases, while only telecommunications and pharmaceuticals experienced slight declines [1][4][8] - The total trading volume for the A-share market was 12867 billion, showing a decrease compared to the previous day [1][4][8] Overseas Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices experienced slight declines, with the Dow Jones falling by 1 point, the S&P 500 down 0.27%, and the Nasdaq down 0.5% [2][4] - The U.S. technology index for the seven major tech companies dropped by 0.89%, with Apple and Facebook seeing declines of nearly 2% and over 1%, respectively [2][4] Key News Highlights - The first meeting of the China-U.S. economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London, where both sides engaged in candid discussions on trade issues and reached a consensus on further cooperation [3][9][10] - The Chinese government emphasized the importance of mutual benefit in the China-U.S. trade relationship, stating that there are no winners in a trade war and expressing a willingness to resolve differences through dialogue [11][12] Economic Data - Recent data from the U.S. showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.4% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month, indicating a moderate inflation environment [19][20] - In the automotive sector, China's vehicle production and sales both achieved double-digit growth in May, with new energy vehicles accounting for nearly half of total sales [22][23]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex trend with different performances in various sectors. In the stock index futures market, the major financial sector leads the upward movement, and the stock index rebounds comprehensively. In the bond market, the short - term uncertainty of treasury bond futures weakens, and the trend is relatively strong. In the precious metals market, gold rises due to factors such as lower - than - expected US inflation and Middle - East geopolitical tensions. In the commodity futures market, different metals and agricultural products have their own supply - demand and price trends [2][5][8]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: On Wednesday, major indices opened higher and closed higher. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.52% to 3402.32 points. The four major stock index futures contracts also rose, with IF2506 and IH2506 rising 0.89% and 0.79% respectively, and IC2506 and IM2506 rising 0.75% and 0.83% respectively. The large - financial sector strengthened, and the basic metals, insurance, and automobile sectors led the gains, while the daily chemical, port, and pharmaceutical sectors declined [2][3]. - **News**: In domestic news, the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism's first meeting made progress. Overseas, the latest US inflation data remained moderate, with the May CPI rising 2.4% year - on - year and 0.1% month - on - month [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The index has stable support below but faces pressure to break through above. It is recommended to sell put options on the CSI 1000 index with an exercise price around 5800 in July to collect option premiums [4]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rose 0.23%, 0.06%, 0.07%, and 0.02% respectively. The yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined [5]. - **Funding**: The central bank conducted 1640 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on June 11, with an operating rate of 1.40%. The net withdrawal on the day was 509 billion yuan. The short - term inter - bank market interest rate was slightly affected, and the long - term capital interest rate was slightly higher [5][6]. - **Policy**: The Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism's first meeting reached a framework consensus. - **Operation Suggestion**: The short - term uncertainty of treasury bond futures weakens. If there are no sudden changes in trade negotiations this week, the treasury bond futures may continue to fluctuate strongly. In the medium - to - long - term, pay attention to the capital situation in mid - to - late June. Unilateral strategy: appropriately allocate long positions on dips. For the spot - futures strategy, pay attention to the TS2509 contract's positive arbitrage strategy. For the curve strategy, there is more room to steepen the curve in the medium - term [6][7]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Market Review**: US inflation growth was lower than expected, and Trump continued to call on the Fed to cut interest rates. The Middle - East situation heated up, driving up the price of gold. The international gold price rose 0.97% to $3355.005 per ounce, while the international silver price showed a different trend, closing at $36.215 per ounce with a 0.85% increase [9][11]. - **Outlook**: In the context of de - dollarization, the long - term upward trend of gold remains unchanged. Currently, trade negotiations and geopolitical conflicts disturb the market. Gold is expected to fluctuate within the range of $3200 - $3400 per ounce in the short - term. It is recommended to continuously sell out - of - the - money gold option straddles to earn time value. For silver, pay attention to the flow of speculative funds [11]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Spot Quotes**: As of June 11, the spot quotes of major shipping companies showed different ranges. The SCFIS European line index rose 0.5% as of June 2, and the SCFI composite index rose 30.68% as of May 30 [13]. - **Fundamentals**: As of June 10, the global container shipping capacity increased by 8.4% year - on - year. The demand in the eurozone and the US showed certain trends in the manufacturing and service sectors [14]. - **Logic**: The futures market fluctuated. The 90 - day tariff freeze period will be extended, which is beneficial to the 08 contract. If shipping companies raise spot prices, the 08 contract may rise. - **Operation Suggestion**: Consider buying the main contract on dips, with the price expected to fluctuate between 1900 - 2200 [14]. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: As of June 11, the average price of SMM electrolytic copper and SMM Guangdong electrolytic copper increased, but the spot trading weakened due to high prices [15]. - **Macro**: The spread between COMEX and LME widened again, and the US continued to replenish copper stocks, which boosted copper prices [15]. - **Supply**: The supply of copper concentrate is expected to be restricted, and the production of refined copper in May increased. It is expected to decrease slightly in June [16]. - **Demand**: The processing and terminal demand of copper showed different trends. The short - term domestic demand has resilience, but the "rush - to - export" demand may lead to pressure on the demand side in Q3 [17]. - **Inventory**: COMEX inventory continued to increase, while domestic inventory decreased slightly [17]. - **Logic**: The combination of "strong reality + weak expectation" makes the copper price fluctuate in the short - term. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 77000 - 80000 [18]. Zinc - **Spot**: On June 11, the average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots increased, but the spot trading was mediocre [18]. - **Supply**: The supply of zinc ore is expected to be loose, and the production of refined zinc in May decreased slightly and is expected to increase in June [19][20]. - **Demand**: The initial consumption of zinc showed a slight recovery, but the terminal demand was expected to be weak after the peak season [21]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory increased, while LME inventory decreased slightly [22]. - **Logic**: In the medium - to - long - term, zinc is in a supply - loose cycle. The zinc price may maintain a high - level shock or decline. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 21000 - 23000 [22]. Tin - **Spot**: On June 11, the price of SMM 1 tin increased, and the spot premium remained unchanged. The actual trading was light [23]. - **Supply**: The supply recovery progress was slow, and the supply of tin ore was tight. The ban on tin ore transportation in Thailand may affect the domestic supply [23][25]. - **Demand and Inventory**: The solder开工 rate increased slightly in April, but the demand is expected to be weak in the future. The inventory decreased [24]. - **Logic**: The slow supply recovery and improved macro - sentiment drive up the tin price, but the demand is expected to be weak. - **Operation Suggestion**: Adopt a short - selling strategy after the sentiment stabilizes [25]. Nickel - **Spot**: As of June 11, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel decreased slightly, while the average price of imported nickel increased slightly [26]. - **Supply**: The production of refined nickel is at a relatively high level, and the monthly production is expected to decline slightly [26]. - **Demand**: The demand for electroplating and alloys is relatively stable, but the demand for stainless steel and nickel sulfate is weak [26]. - **Inventory**: Overseas inventory remained high, while domestic social inventory decreased slightly [27]. - **Logic**: The macro - situation is temporarily stable, and the cost support of refined nickel is slightly loose. The medium - term supply is loose, and the short - term market lacks driving force. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 118000 - 126000 [28]. Stainless Steel - **Spot**: As of June 11, the price of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel increased slightly, and the basis decreased [29]. - **Raw Materials**: The supply of nickel ore was still tight, the price of nickel iron was weak and stable, and the price of chrome iron was weak [29][30]. - **Supply**: The production of stainless steel in June is expected to be slightly higher than that in May, and the overall supply is in an oversupply pattern [30]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory decreased, and the futures inventory decreased [30]. - **Logic**: The stainless steel market is affected by the cost and demand. The short - term supply - demand contradiction still exists, and the market is expected to fluctuate weakly. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 12400 - 13000 [31]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: As of June 11, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased slightly, while the price of lithium hydroxide decreased slightly [31]. - **Supply**: The supply of lithium carbonate is still at a relatively high level, and the supply pressure is still obvious [32]. - **Demand**: The demand for lithium carbonate is relatively stable, but the downstream is entering the off - season, and the demand may face pressure [32]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory of lithium carbonate increased last week, with the upstream and trading inventory increasing and the downstream inventory decreasing [33]. - **Logic**: The futures price of lithium carbonate rose due to market sentiment, but the fundamentals have not changed significantly. The short - term market still has pressure. - **Operation Suggestion**: Observe the performance around 62,000 yuan first [34][35]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - **Spot**: The spot price of steel was stable with a slight increase, and the basis weakened [36]. - **Supply**: The steel production decreased slightly from the high level, and the production of hot - rolled coils increased [36]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for steel decreased, affected by the off - season and tariffs [37]. - **Inventory**: The steel inventory was approaching the inflection point of accumulation, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased [38]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost support of steel was weak, and the profit of different steel products varied [39]. - **View**: The steel price rebounded recently, but the overall demand is expected to be weak. Consider short - selling on rebounds [40]. Iron Ore - **Spot**: The price of mainstream iron ore powder decreased slightly [41]. - **Futures**: The iron ore futures price decreased slightly [41]. - **Basis**: The basis of PB powder was 57 yuan per ton [41]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron production decreased slightly, and the blast furnace operating rate decreased [41]. - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipment increased, and the arrival volume at Chinese ports increased [41][42]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of iron ore decreased, and the steel mill inventory decreased [42]. - **View**: The short - term iron ore price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the medium - to - long - term is bearish [42]. Coking Coal - **Futures and Spot**: The coking coal futures price fluctuated strongly, while the spot price was weak [43][45]. - **Supply**: The domestic coal mine production decreased slightly, and the Mongolian coal price decline slowed down [45]. - **Demand**: The coking plant operating rate decreased slightly, and the downstream demand still had some resilience [44][46]. - **Inventory**: The coal mine inventory increased, and the downstream inventory was at a medium level [44][46]. - **View**: The coking coal futures price is expected to rebound, but the spot fundamentals are lagging. Adopt an interval operation strategy [45][46]. Coke - **Futures and Spot**: The coke futures price fluctuated strongly, while the spot price was weak [47][48]. - **Supply**: The production of coke decreased slightly, affected by environmental protection [48]. - **Demand**: The demand for coke decreased slightly, and the blast furnace operating rate continued to decline [48]. - **Inventory**: The coking plant inventory increased, the port inventory decreased, and the steel mill inventory decreased [48]. - **View**: The coke futures price is expected to rebound, but the spot fundamentals are still loose. Adopt an interval operation strategy [48]. Ferrosilicon - **Spot**: The price of ferrosilicon in the main production areas was stable [49]. - **Futures**: The ferrosilicon futures price was stable [49]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of ferrosilicon was difficult to stabilize, and the profit was negative [49][50]. - **Supply**: The production of ferrosilicon increased, mainly due to the resumption of production in Ningxia [50]. - **Demand**: The demand for ferrosilicon in steelmaking was expected to decline slightly in June, and the non - steel demand was weak [50]. - **View**: The supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon increased, and the price is expected to follow the coal price [50]. Manganese Silicon - **Spot**: The price of manganese silicon in the main production areas was stable [51]. - **Futures**: The manganese silicon futures price decreased slightly [51]. - **Cost**: The cost of manganese silicon was relatively high, and the profit was negative [51]. - **Supply**: The production of manganese silicon increased slightly, and the supply pressure still existed [52]. - **Demand**: The demand for manganese silicon in steelmaking decreased slightly, and the overall demand was relatively stable [53][54]. - **View**: The supply pressure of manganese silicon still exists, and the price is expected to follow the coal price [55]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - **Spot Market**: The price of domestic soybean meal increased slightly, and the trading volume increased significantly. The price of rapeseed meal increased slightly, and the trading volume was 4200 tons [56]. - **Fundamentals**: The US may have heavy rainfall, which may affect soybean production. Brazil's soybean production and export are expected to be high [56][57]. - **Market Outlook**: The Sino - US trade negotiation may ease the market sentiment, and the domestic soybean meal price is expected to fluctuate strongly, but be cautious about chasing the rise [57]. Live Pigs - **Spot Situation**: The spot price of live pigs fluctuated slightly, with different trends in different regions [58][59]. - **Market Data**: The profit of live pig breeding varied by scale, and the secondary fattening sales ratio decreased [59]. - **Market Outlook**: The live pig market supply - demand situation improved slightly, but the demand was weak due to hot weather. The market is expected to fluctuate [59]. Corn - **Spot Price**: The price of corn in the northeast and north - central regions increased slightly, and the port price also increased [60]. - **Fundamentals**: The inventory of corn in Guangdong Port decreased, and the inventory in the northern four ports decreased [60][61]. - **Market Outlook**: The price of corn is expected to fluctuate at a high level, affected by the supply - demand situation and the wheat price [61]. Sugar - **Market Analysis**: The global sugar supply is expected to be loose, and the international sugar price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The domestic sugar price is supported by high sales and low inventory, and is expected to fluctuate at a low level [62].