Core Viewpoint - The chief A-share strategist of CITIC Securities, Qiu Xiang, predicts that the profit growth rate of A-share companies will show a trend of low-to-high from 2026 onwards, influenced by the dynamics of the China-US relationship [1] Summary by Categories Market Phases - The market is expected to be divided into three phases based on the China-US trade agreement and the US midterm elections: 1. The first phase is from now until the trade agreement is finalized, where market growth is expected to slow down 2. The second phase is from the agreement's implementation until the midterm elections, where A-shares may experience sustained growth in a stable external environment 3. The third phase follows the midterm elections, where uncertainties from external disturbances may increase, prompting investors to refocus on domestic markets [1] Investment Opportunities and Sector Allocation - Four major themes are highlighted for investment opportunities: 1. The manufacturing sector's competition for global pricing power, with a focus on industries such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and new energy, which can convert market share advantages into pricing power and profit margin increases 2. The globalization of Chinese enterprises, which significantly expands market capitalization and profit growth potential, with key industries including machinery, innovative pharmaceuticals, power equipment, and military industry 3. The continuation of the technology trend, particularly in AI, which is expected to further expand its commercial applications and enhance the competitive advantages of Chinese companies, focusing on sectors like semiconductors, computing power, edge hardware, and AI applications 4. The potential for unexpected recovery in domestic demand, where despite general industry conditions being average, there exists significant room for recovery and valuation elasticity in domestic demand-sensitive sectors [1]

Core Viewpoint - The chief A-share strategist of CITIC Securities, Qiu Xiang, predicts that the profit growth rate of A-share companies will show a trend of low-to-high from 2026 onwards, influenced by the dynamics of the China-US relationship [1] Group 1: Market Phases - The market is expected to be divided into three phases based on the China-US trade agreement and the US midterm elections: 1. The first phase is from now until the trade agreement is finalized, where the market's upward slope is expected to slow down 2. The second phase is from the agreement's implementation to the end of the US midterm elections, during which A-shares may experience sustained growth in a stable external environment 3. The third phase follows the midterm elections, where external uncertainties may increase sharply, prompting investors to refocus on domestic issues [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities and Sector Allocation - Four major themes are highlighted for investment opportunities: 1. The manufacturing sector's competition for global pricing power, with a focus on industries such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and new energy, which can convert market share advantages into pricing power and profit margin increases 2. The globalization of Chinese enterprises, which significantly expands market capitalization and profit growth potential, with key industries including machinery, innovative pharmaceuticals, electric equipment, and military industry 3. The continuation of the technology trend, particularly in AI, which further expands commercial applications and enhances the competitive advantages of Chinese companies, focusing on sectors like semiconductors, computing power, edge hardware, and AI applications 4. The potential for unexpected recovery in domestic demand, where despite general industry conditions being average, there exists significant room for recovery and valuation elasticity in domestic demand-sensitive sectors [1]

Group 1 - The article highlights significant announcements in the stock market, including suspensions, investments, acquisitions, performance reports, and other corporate actions that could impact investor decisions [1] - A company specializing in commercial aerospace, robotics, chips, military industry, and PCB is in discussions with leading robotics firms for component development [1] - Another company involved in humanoid robots, commercial aerospace, drones, military, and new energy vehicles has received small batch orders for high-end bearings used in aerospace and gas turbines [1] - A company plans to invest 4.5 billion yuan in a high-performance copper-clad laminate project, focusing on PCB, commercial aerospace, storage chips, CPO, computing power, and collaboration with Huawei [1]

Group 1 - The report predicts that the A-share bull market will continue in 2026, driven by resilient overseas economies, likely continued dollar liquidity easing, and domestic policies maintaining a "dual easing" tone, with technology growth remaining the long-term market focus [4][7][8] - During the New Year holiday, the Hang Seng Technology Index rose by 4.00%, and the Hang Seng Index increased by 2.76%, indicating a positive market sentiment driven by technology and materials sectors [4][8] - The manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion zone at 50.1% in December, marking the first increase since April, driven by policy support and pre-holiday inventory buildup [8][9] Group 2 - The report highlights the importance of service consumption policies, with the National Development and Reform Commission announcing a 2.95 billion yuan investment plan and 625 million yuan in special bonds to support consumption [9][10] - The real estate sector is expected to experience a significant divergence in policy expectations, with new housing sales projected to stabilize at 700-800 million square meters annually during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [11][12] - The public fund industry is expected to see a high-quality development trend, with new regulations aimed at reducing investor costs and promoting long-term holding of funds, potentially saving investors 51 billion yuan annually [12]

Market Review - The South Korean Composite Index, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Tech Index, and Taiwan Weighted Index led global gains, while US stock indices declined during the week of December 29, 2025, to January 2, 2026. In the A-share market, cyclical and growth sectors performed well, with oil and petrochemicals, military industry, and media leading gains, while utilities lagged behind. On January 2, 2026, the Hong Kong stock market opened strong, with the Hang Seng Tech Index surging 4%, particularly in semiconductor, AI computing, and internet giants, indicating a recovery in market risk appetite. In commodities, base metals and crude oil rose, while precious metals fell, with COMEX silver and gold down 6.39% and 4.63%, respectively. The offshore RMB strengthened against the US dollar, surpassing 6.97 on Friday [1][2][3]. Market Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a bullish trend into 2026, driven by several positive factors. The macro policy cycle is favorable, with multiple departments rolling out supportive industrial policies and investment plans as 2026 marks the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan. Coordinated fiscal and monetary policies are creating a friendly liquidity environment. Institutional funds, particularly in stock ETFs, have shown significant inflows, indicating a strong willingness to invest as foreign capital returns due to currency appreciation. The narrowing decline in PPI suggests a mild recovery in corporate profits, which will support market sentiment [2][4][5]. Key Focus Areas 1. **Overseas Developments**: The selection of a new Federal Reserve Chair is a key focus, with the December meeting minutes indicating a majority support for further rate cuts, though there are significant policy path divergences. The probability of a rate cut in January is low at 17%, with potential candidates like Hassett and Waller advocating for further easing [2][3]. 2. **PMI Data**: Both manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs returned to expansion territory in December 2025, with manufacturing PMI at 50.1% and non-manufacturing PMI at 50.2%. This improvement in production and new orders supports the spring market rally [3][4]. 3. **Policy Measures**: The government has implemented a series of targeted policies to boost market confidence, including a 295 billion yuan investment plan and early release of subsidies and local debt limits. The real estate sector is also seeing policy adjustments to lower transaction costs, which may stabilize market expectations [4][5]. 4. **Institutional Investment Trends**: There has been a notable net inflow of institutional funds into stock ETFs, particularly those related to the A500 index, indicating a proactive approach to the upcoming spring market rally. The favorable policy outlook and stable currency are expected to attract further foreign investment [5]. Industry Focus - The focus for industry investment should be on emerging growth sectors supported by policy, such as AI computing, robotics, and energy storage, as well as sectors benefiting from price increases and "anti-involution" trends, including chemicals and non-ferrous metals [5].

Group 1 - The macro policy continues to strengthen, with a significant improvement in the construction PMI indicating that investment is expected to stabilize, and the possibility of a reserve requirement ratio cut is increasing, alongside currency appreciation and public fund allocation supporting micro liquidity, suggesting a gradual spring market may unfold [3][4][5] - The probability of a "good start" in the market is increasing, driven by continuous positive factors such as policy support in consumption and real estate, a significant improvement in construction PMI, and the potential for a reserve requirement ratio cut in January [4][5] - The economic fundamentals show marginal changes, with a focus on whether the investment sector can stabilize at the beginning of the year, as the construction PMI has rebounded significantly, indicating potential policy effectiveness in stabilizing investment [5][25][26] Group 2 - The industry configuration emphasizes "stories" and "performance" as key elastic opportunities, with the AI industry chain identified as the strongest mainline, focusing on computing power, supporting components, and key applications [6][40][41] - The first mainline is the AI industry chain, which is expected to continue its strong trend, with attention on computing power (CPO/PCB), supporting components (optical fibers/liquid cooling/power supply), and applications (robots/games/software) [40][41][43] - The second mainline focuses on sectors with high prosperity or significant event catalysts, including storage and energy storage chains, military industry, and machinery equipment, with expectations of long-term prosperity driven by AI demand and geopolitical events [41][42]

Group 1: H-Shares and Semiconductor Sector - H-shares of technology stocks surged on the first trading day of 2026, driven by Baidu's announcement of Kunlun Chip's independent listing and Wall Street's 75% increase in Wall Street Technology stocks [1] - The semiconductor sector experienced a significant rally, with major players like SMIC and Hua Hong benefiting from increased orders, leading to a bullish outlook for their performance [1] - The demand for industrial metals is expected to rise due to AI's energy requirements, resulting in price increases for copper and aluminum, with companies like Jiangxi Copper, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Zijin Mining seeing substantial gains [1] Group 2: Emerging Investment Opportunities - Four key investment directions are highlighted: non-ferrous metals, semiconductor industry chain, commercial aerospace, and robotics [2][4] - The commercial aerospace sector is seen as an extension of the AI industry, with significant speculative interest due to government support and the nascent stage of the industry [2] - Robotics is identified as a key area where AI and semiconductor industries converge, presenting further investment opportunities [2] Group 3: Market Predictions and Strategies - Predictions for the market from January 5 to January 9 indicate a potential upward trend, with key resistance levels identified at 3950 and 4034 [3] - The focus for 2026 includes dividend stocks, new technologies, new pharmaceuticals, and new consumer trends, with a strategy to reduce positions if the Shanghai Composite Index exceeds 5178 points [3] - Emphasis is placed on identifying industry performance turning points, particularly in sectors like CXO and medical devices, as well as individual stock opportunities in lithium batteries and energy metals [4]

Group 1 - The short-term performance of A-shares after the New Year is mainly influenced by policies, external events, liquidity, and overseas market trends [1][6] - Since 2010, in 16 years, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen in 11 instances during the 10 trading days before the holiday and has shown similar patterns after the holiday [1][6] - Positive policies and external events are core influencing factors for post-holiday A-share performance, with examples including the resolution of the "fiscal cliff" in the US in January 2013 and the easing of US-China trade tensions in early 2019 [1][6] Group 2 - Current observations suggest that the A-share spring market is ongoing, with potential for a strong but volatile performance post-New Year [1][6] - There is a likelihood of further positive policy implementation after the holiday, including the rollout of guidelines for equipment updates and trade-in policies, as well as local government meetings to stimulate consumption [1][6] Group 3 - External risks post-holiday are expected to be limited, with a high probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in January and stable US-China relations, although tensions with Japan may persist [2][7] - Liquidity is anticipated to further loosen, with potential for accelerated capital inflow into the stock market [2][7] Group 4 - The economic recovery remains weak, with industrial profits continuing to decline, but there is potential for recovery in certain sectors, particularly in technology and cyclical industries [2][7] - Historical trends indicate that industries driven by upward policies and trends before the holiday are likely to maintain their strength afterward [3][8] Group 5 - Recommendations for post-holiday investment include focusing on technology, certain cyclical sectors, and consumer industries, with specific mention of machinery, military, new energy, media, computing, electronics, telecommunications, and pharmaceuticals [4][9] - Current PEG ratios for growth sectors like power equipment and media are relatively low, indicating potential for investment [4][9]

Core Viewpoint - From January 1, 2026, China has implemented new export control policies for silver, designating it as a strategic material requiring licensing and a one-by-one review system, which aims to manage the flow and usage of silver rather than completely prohibiting exports [1][3]. Group 1: Policy Implications - The new policy reflects a strategic decision based on actual demand, as silver's industrial usage now accounts for 58% of its total demand, particularly in sectors like photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and military applications [3]. - China's silver refining capacity represents 60% to 70% of the global market, and the new controls are expected to create immediate reactions in the global market [1][3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The anticipated demand gap for silver is projected to reach several thousand tons by 2024, driven by the rapid growth of the photovoltaic and electric vehicle industries, which could lead to a shortage for domestic strategic industries if exports are not controlled [3]. - The tightening of export approvals is likely to increase procurement costs for military enterprises in Europe and the U.S., which rely on refined silver from China, potentially affecting production schedules [5]. Group 3: Strategic Resource Management - The policy is seen as a significant move following China's rare earth policies, aiming to systematically safeguard critical strategic resources and convert resource advantages into industrial and strategic benefits [7][8]. - By regaining pricing power over silver, China aims to enhance its position in the global competition for key minerals, ensuring the needs of its high-end manufacturing and defense sectors are met [5][8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This year after the New Year's Day, the A - share spring market is underway and may be volatile and bullish, affected by factors such as policy implementation, liquidity, and the performance of the Hong Kong stock market [1][4][7]. - After the holiday, technology growth and some cyclical industries may be relatively dominant, with continuous upward industrial trends and policy support [1][26]. - After the holiday, it is recommended to continue to allocate industries such as technology, some cyclical and consumer sectors on dips [1][38][46]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Post - holiday Spring Market is Underway 3.1.1 Factors Affecting Post - holiday A - share Movement - Since 2010, in 11 out of 16 years, the Shanghai Composite Index showed the same upward or downward trend in the 10 trading days before and after the holiday. The post - holiday short - term market performance is affected by policies, external events, liquidity, and the performance of the Hong Kong stock market [1][4]. - Positive policies and external events may lead to a short - term rise in the post - holiday A - shares, while tight policies or negative external events may result in weak performance. Liquidity also plays a key role, and the performance of the Hong Kong stock market during the holiday has a certain impact on the post - holiday A - shares [4]. 3.1.2 This Year's A - share Spring Market is Underway and May be Volatile and Bullish - Positive policies may continue to be implemented after the holiday, and external risks may be limited. The "two new" policies are accelerating implementation, local two - sessions may be held intensively, and consumption - stimulating policies may be introduced. Externally, the Fed may cut interest rates in January, Sino - US relations may remain stable, and geopolitical conflicts may ease [7][8]. - Post - holiday short - term liquidity may be further relaxed. Overseas, the Fed is likely to cut interest rates, and the RMB exchange rate may be strong. Domestically, the central bank may cut interest rates and reserve requirements. Also, stock market funds may accelerate inflow [9]. - The Hong Kong stock market performed strongly during the New Year's Day holiday, which may boost the post - holiday A - shares. The correlation coefficient between the Hong Kong stock market's rise and fall during the New Year's Day holiday and the Shanghai Composite Index's rise and fall in the 10 trading days after the holiday is about 0.5 [18][19]. - The post - holiday economy and corporate profits are still in weak recovery. The economy is in a weak recovery state, and corporate profits may continue to recover, although the industrial enterprise profits in November continued to decline [21]. 3.2 Industry Allocation: Focus on Growth after the Holiday 3.2.1 Technology Growth and Some Cyclical Industries May be Relatively Dominant after New Year's Day - Historically, policy and industrial trends drive pre - holiday strong industries to maintain their strength after the holiday. Pre - holiday leading industries may switch due to high sentiment or market adjustments. Industries with continuous strength around the New Year's Day usually have a relatively low historical quantile of trading volume [26]. - This year, the industrial trends of technology growth and some cyclical industries may continue to rise after the holiday. The pre - holiday leading cyclical industries have neutral - low sentiment, while the technology growth industries have high sentiment [26]. 3.2.2 Currently, the PEG of Electric Power, Media, and Automobile is Low - Among the primary growth industries, the predicted PEG of electric power equipment, media, and automobile is relatively low, at 0.64, 0.86, and 1.13 respectively. The historical quantiles of trading volume of medicine, computer, media, and automobile are low [40]. - Among the secondary growth industries, the sentiment of traditional Chinese medicine, biological products, automobile services, and chemical pharmaceuticals is low. The predicted PEG of nautical equipment, games, commercial vehicles, and wind power equipment is relatively low [44]. 3.2.3 After the Holiday, it is Recommended to Continue to Allocate Industries such as Technology, Some Cyclical and Consumer Sectors on Dips - It is recommended to allocate industries with upward policy and industrial trends, such as machinery (robotics), military (commercial aerospace), electric power (nuclear fusion, energy storage), media (AI applications, games), computer (AI applications, satellite Internet), electronics (semiconductors, AI hardware), communication (AI hardware), and medicine (innovative drugs) on dips [46]. - In the short term, it is recommended to allocate sectors that may make up for lost ground and have potentially improved fundamentals, such as securities and consumer sectors (food, retail, social services) on dips [56].