Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 21,693 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 3.9%, and a net profit of 1,263 billion, down 4.9% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025 [1] - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 7,192 billion, an increase of 2.3% year-on-year and 3.2% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 423 billion, down 3.9% year-on-year but up 13.7% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The overall gross margin for Q3 2025 reached 21.5%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, indicating improved profitability [1] Production and Pricing - The company's oil and gas production reached 137.7 million barrels of oil equivalent in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, with crude oil production at 71.4 million barrels, up 0.8% [2] - The average oil price for the first three quarters was 65.55 USD per barrel, a decrease of 14.7% year-on-year, while Q3 2025 saw an estimated oil price of approximately 64.2 USD per barrel, up 1.9 USD from the previous quarter [2] - The upstream segment reported an operating profit of 125.1 billion, down 13% year-on-year, but is expected to maintain a good performance due to cost reduction and efficiency improvements [2] Refining and Chemical Sector - The company processed 104.1 million barrels of crude oil in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%, while the production of refined oil products was 89.59 million tons, down 0.4% [3] - The refining segment achieved an operating profit of 16.2 billion, up 6.3% year-on-year, with refining business profits increasing by 22.7% [3] - The chemical business, however, saw a significant decline in profits, down 48.9%, indicating challenges in that segment [3] Sales Performance - The total sales of refined oil products reached 120.876 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, while domestic sales were 89.64 million tons, up 0.05% [4] - The sales segment reported an operating profit of 11.6 billion, down 9.9% year-on-year, reflecting pressure on refined oil sales [4] - Natural gas sales reached 2,185 billion cubic feet, up 4.2% year-on-year, with domestic sales at 1,709 billion cubic feet, up 4.9% [4] Future Outlook - The company maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 156.1 billion, 160.6 billion, and 166.9 billion, corresponding to PE ratios of 11X, 10X, and 10X, respectively, and maintains a "buy" rating [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Petroleum (601857) [5] Core Views - The company's performance exceeded expectations, with a stable development in the natural gas business [5] - The overall revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 2,169.256 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.9%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 126.3 billion yuan, down 4.9% year-on-year [5] - The company achieved a gross margin of 21.5% in Q3 2025, reflecting a 0.8 percentage point increase quarter-on-quarter [5] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 2,969.207 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.1% [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is projected to be 156.142 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 5.2% [4] - Earnings per share for 2025 is estimated at 0.85 yuan [4] - The company’s oil and gas production reached 1.377 billion barrels of oil equivalent in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 2.6% [5] - The average oil price for Q3 2025 was approximately 64.2 USD per barrel, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.9 USD [5] Operational Insights - The refining segment showed improvement, with a processing volume of 1.041 billion barrels of crude oil in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.4% [5] - The sales of refined oil products reached 12.0876 million tons in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 0.8% [5] - The natural gas sales volume was 218.5 billion cubic feet, up 4.2% year-on-year, with a significant profit increase of 23.8% in the natural gas sales segment [5]

Core Viewpoint - The "Three Barrel Oil" companies in China are facing significant profit declines due to the ongoing drop in international oil prices, prompting a strategic shift towards comprehensive energy services including oil, gas, hydrogen, and electricity [2][5]. Financial Performance - In the first three quarters, China Petroleum, China National Petroleum, and China National Offshore Oil Corporation reported net profits of 29.984 billion yuan, 126.279 billion yuan, and 101.971 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year declines of 32.2%, 4.9%, and 12.6% [2]. - The combined net profit decrease exceeded 35 billion yuan compared to the previous year, averaging a loss of approximately 3.8 billion yuan per day [2]. - The average selling price of crude oil for China Petroleum fell by 14.7% to $65.55 per barrel, while China National Offshore Oil's average selling price dropped by 13.6% to $68.92 per barrel, impacting their oil and gas revenue [2][3]. Operational Efficiency - Despite the profit declines, the reduction in net profit for China Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil was less severe than the drop in oil prices, attributed to effective cost management and operational efficiency [3]. - China Petroleum's oil and gas equivalent production increased by 2.6% to 1,377.2 million barrels, with unit operating costs decreasing by 6.1% to $10.79 per barrel [3]. - China National Offshore Oil's net production rose by 6.7% to 578.3 million barrels of oil equivalent, with costs per barrel down by 2.8% to $27.35 [3]. Natural Gas Segment - The natural gas segment showed positive growth, with China National Offshore Oil's natural gas production increasing by nearly 12%, significantly outpacing overall production growth [3]. - The average price of natural gas rose by 1% to $7.86 per thousand cubic feet, leading to a 15.2% increase in natural gas sales revenue [3]. Downstream Business Impact - The downstream oil product sales and refining chemical businesses of China Petroleum and China Sinopec are facing challenges due to declining market demand and falling prices of key petroleum and petrochemical products [3][4]. Chemical Business Challenges - The chemical business is experiencing reduced profit margins due to the continuous release of new production capacity, with China Petroleum's chemical operations reporting a profit of 1.787 billion yuan, halving year-on-year, while China Sinopec's chemical sector faced a pre-tax loss of 8.223 billion yuan, widening by nearly 68% [4]. Strategic Shift Towards New Energy - In response to the pressures from new energy on traditional markets, the "Three Barrel Oil" companies are accelerating their non-oil business development [5]. - China Sinopec plans to focus on stabilizing oil, expanding gas, promoting hydrogen, increasing electricity, and strengthening services, aiming to transform into a comprehensive energy service provider [5]. - China Petroleum's president emphasized the construction of integrated energy stations and the integration of oil and gas exploration with new energy development [5].

Group 1 - The chairman of the supervisory board of China National Petroleum Corporation, Mr. Zhou Song, has submitted his resignation due to work adjustments, effective October 31, 2025 [1] - For the first half of 2025, the revenue composition of China National Petroleum Corporation is as follows: sales accounted for 79.76%, refining and chemicals for 38.05%, exploration and production for 28.49%, natural gas and pipelines for 21.24%, and other businesses for 2.03% [1] - As of the report date, the market capitalization of China National Petroleum Corporation is 1,674.6 billion yuan [1]

Gold Sector - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.0%, but uncertainty remains regarding future rate cuts, particularly in December [1] - The World Bank forecasts an average gold price of $3,575 next year, with a potential increase of 5%, reaching double the average from 2015-2019 [1] - Analyst Owen from Zhisheng believes that the second rate cut this year is already priced in, leading to weak gold performance [1] - Technically, gold has shown weak performance after a decline, with potential resistance at $4,070 [1] Oil Sector - The OPEC+ meeting on November 2 is expected to result in a production increase of 137,000 barrels per day in December to gradually regain market share [2] - The International Energy Agency reported a significant drop in oil inventories by 6.86 million barrels, exceeding market expectations, which is bullish for oil prices [2] - Despite the inventory drop, U.S. oil production increased by 15,000 barrels to a record 1,364.4 million barrels per day, failing to support a price increase [2] - Technically, oil is forming a double bottom structure, with support at $55 and resistance at $62.50 [2] Dollar Index - The European Central Bank maintained its key deposit rate at 2%, citing uncertainty in the eurozone due to global trade and geopolitical tensions [3] - Following the Fed's meeting, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is at 74.7%, with a 57.7% chance of maintaining the current rate [3] - The dollar is showing signs of a bottoming pattern, with potential resistance at 100.20 and support at 99.32 [3] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index is in a strong bullish trend with no signs of a peak, showing accelerated upward movement [4] - The focus is on the 51,500 level as a key support and resistance line [4] Copper Sector - Copper prices have been fluctuating within a wide range, with a key support level at $4.94; a drop below this level may indicate a trend reversal [5] - Recent price action shows a pullback after reaching highs, with resistance at $5.11 [5] Market Overview - Trump indicated a potentially large agreement involving oil and gas purchases from Alaska [7] - U.S. Treasury Secretary expressed appreciation for the Fed's rate cut but dissatisfaction with the wording, highlighting the need for significant reforms [7] - The World Gold Council reported that global gold demand reached a record high in the third quarter of this year [7]

南财智讯10月31日电，中国石油公告，公司监事会主席周松因工作调整需要，已于2025年10月31日向公 司监事会提交辞呈，辞去公司监事会主席及监事职务。周松先生确认其不存在未履行完毕的公开承诺， 与公司董事会、监事会和公司无不同意见，亦不存在须提请公司股东注意的其他事项。周松先生已按照 公司相关规定做好交接工作。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The chairman of the supervisory board of China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), Zhou Song, has submitted his resignation due to work adjustments, effective October 31, 2025, despite his original term ending in June 2026 [1] Group 1 - Zhou Song will no longer hold any positions in the listed company or its controlling subsidiaries, and there are no unfulfilled public commitments [1] - His departure will not reduce the number of supervisory board members below the legal minimum, ensuring the normal operation of the supervisory board [1] - The resignation is effective immediately upon submission, and a handover has already been completed [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs maintains a "Buy" rating for China National Petroleum Corporation (00857, 601857.SH) due to the company's cash flow being sufficient to cover basic capital expenditures and dividends even when Brent oil prices are below $60 per barrel, with attractive free cash flow and dividend yield [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3, China National Petroleum's EBITDA and net profit decreased by 5% and 4% year-on-year, respectively, demonstrating resilience compared to a 13% decline in Brent crude oil prices during the same period [1] - EBITDA for the quarter was 3% higher than Goldman Sachs' expectations, driven by strong performance in upstream and natural gas sales [1] Group 2: Capital Expenditure and Cash Flow - For the first three quarters, capital expenditures reached 65% of Goldman Sachs' full-year forecast, slightly above the historical average of 61% [1] - During the same period, cash flow amounted to 125% of Goldman Sachs' full-year expectations, compared to a historical average of 108% [1] Group 3: Valuation and Price Targets - The company is valued at a low level compared to global peers, with a target price of HKD 8.6 for H-shares and RMB 11.8 for A-shares [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Minsheng Securities has given a "recommended" rating to China Petroleum (601857.SH) with a latest price of 9.15 yuan, citing several reasons for this rating [1] Group 2 - The main drivers for the profit growth in Q3 are the sales of refined oil and natural gas [1] - The exploration business is operating steadily, with an increase in oil prices compared to the previous quarter [1] - There is a significant improvement in the profitability of natural gas sales [1] - The refining business is actively advancing its transformation and upgrading [1] - There is a marginal improvement in sales operations, reflecting the effectiveness of marketing strategies [1]

美银发布研报称，中国石油股份(00857)首三季税后利润同比跌5%至1,260亿元人民币，单计第三季同比 跌4%至423亿元人民币，按季升14%胜预期，受显著增长的天然气销售利润推动。首三季资本开支同比 跌5%至1,770亿元人民币，为全年指引的68%。该行上调对中石油明年及后年税后利润预测1%，H股目 标价由8港元上调至8.5港元，重申H股"买入"投资评级，基于预测今年6厘股息率。 ...