01 高盛合伙人Rich Privorotsky认为，市场陷入"先卖出、后提问"恐慌，本质是对企业护城河的全面检验，建议关注拥有真 正护城河的公司、实物资产和工业股，看好航空航天板块，但需警惕银行股风险。高盛预计CTA将抛售15-20亿美元美 股，标普若跌破中期阈值6723点，将加速抛售幅度。 硬·AI 作者 | 鲍亦龙 编辑 | 硬 AI 高盛合伙人Rich Privorotsky警告称，一场由人工智能驱动的"创造性破坏"正实时席卷全球各行业，本质上 这是一次对企业护城河的全面检验。 从上周软件行业遭遇冲击，到本周初先是保险和财富管理类股，下半周则轮到房地产服务类和物流板块。 AI最初被视为对股市的利好因素，但现在正在激进地检验哪些企业真正具有可防御的竞争优势。 "先卖出、后提问"的情绪在市场扩散，抛售速度加快，但除了AI担忧外并无明确催化剂。高盛合伙人Rich Privorotsky认为这是一次护城河检查： 企业的业务是否能抵御技术冲击？如果有一支机器人大军，能否颠覆现有企业？企业是否必须竞相 投入或收购，否则就会被取代？ Privorotsky进一步强调，需警惕美国各大股指中的CTA（商品交易顾问）触发 ...

Group 1 - Manycore Tech Inc. has received a notification for overseas listing, planning to issue up to approximately 312 million shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with JPMorgan and CCB International as joint sponsors [1][4] - Manycore Tech is part of the "Hangzhou Six Little Dragons" and aims to be the first among them to go public [1][3] - The company was founded in 2011 by Huang Xiaohuang, Chen Hang, and Zhu Hao, who have backgrounds in NVIDIA, Microsoft, Amazon, and the National Supercomputing Application Center [3] Group 2 - Manycore Tech is the largest space design software provider in China, with a market share of approximately 23.2% based on projected 2024 revenue [3] - Revenue is expected to grow from 601 million yuan in 2022 to 755 million yuan in 2024, with a 9.4% year-on-year increase in the first half of 2025, reaching 399 million yuan [3][4] - The gross profit margin is projected to increase from 72.7% to 82.1% during the same period [3] Group 3 - The co-founders hold significant shares: Huang Xiaohuang at 15.46%, Chen Hang at 11.04%, and Zhu Hao at 4.22% [4] - The company has received investments from several institutions, including IDG Capital, GGV Capital, and Hillhouse Capital [4] - Funds raised from the IPO will be primarily used for international expansion, product upgrades, domestic sales promotion, core technology investment, and general operational purposes [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that AI, initially seen as a strong investment theme, has transformed into a threat, particularly impacting light-asset companies that may be replaced by AI rather than the tech giants developing it [1][6][7] - The S&P 500 index experienced its worst performance since November until a rebound on Friday due to mild inflation data, highlighting the widespread panic regarding AI disruption across various markets [2][4] - The profitability expansion accumulated by white-collar industries such as software companies, wealth management firms, and tax advisors over the past decade has been revalued within weeks, affecting even the private credit market that lends to these companies [3] Group 2 - Wall Street's previously confident bets have failed dramatically over six weeks, with cash allocations hitting a historical low and hedge positions at their minimum, leading to a collapse of consensus trades [5][8] - The sectors that have performed well include energy, consumer staples, and U.S. Treasury bonds, while the consensus bets on AI have faltered significantly [5] - Investors are questioning the return timelines of large capital expenditures by tech giants and whether remaining cash can continue to support stock buybacks, with more stocks being harmed by AI than helped [8][9] Group 3 - Two forces are exacerbating volatility in the U.S. stock market: low cash allocations and interconnected leverage networks that can trigger sell-offs across seemingly unrelated investments [12][13] - The VIX index recently surpassed the widely watched 20 mark, indicating rising market stress, even though it does not show panic, as the skew of put options remains historically high [18][19] - The performance of investment-grade bond ETFs relative to high-yield bond ETFs has improved, with the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield reaching a two-month low [20][21] Group 4 - Investors are adjusting their strategies, with the S&P 500 index still hovering near historical highs and credit spreads at ten-year lows, but there is an increase in hedging activities as indicated by the rising put-call ratio [22][24] - ETFs tracking companies with high shareholder returns attracted $3.6 billion in new funds this month, indicating a shift in investor focus [25] - Analysts suggest that if negative news regarding AI disruption subsides and volatility decreases, the U.S. stock market may support upward movement, but there is a conflict between market consensus and resilient economic indicators [26]

Core Insights - The market is increasingly recognizing the imminent threat of AI disruption, with the perceived risk in the MSCI Europe index rising from 4% to 24% in just over a month, including the banking sector [1][9] - Morgan Stanley has shifted its stance from neutral to cautious regarding cyclical stocks versus defensive stocks, highlighting opportunities in the European credit market for downside protection [1][15] AI Capability Advancements - The latest AI model, GPT-5.2, has achieved human expert-level performance in 71% of professional tasks, marking a significant leap in AI capabilities [5][8] - The speed of AI advancements is accelerating, with predictions that upcoming models in 2026 will far exceed current capabilities due to increased computational power [8] Market Disruption Dynamics - Initial concerns about AI's impact on the software industry have rapidly expanded to broader economic disruption risks, reminiscent of market reactions during the early COVID-19 pandemic [9][10] - Approximately 10% of the MSCI Europe index (excluding banks) is now viewed as facing substantial AI disruption risks, with this figure rising to 24% when including banks [9][10] Valuation Trends - The valuation of "disruption stocks" has decreased from a peak P/E ratio of 24x to 16.4x, with further downward potential indicated by comparisons to "uncontested disruption stocks" [10] Resilience Assessment Framework - Morgan Stanley proposes a framework to evaluate sectors and stocks based on five dimensions of risk exposure, identifying utilities, semiconductors, defense, and tobacco as the most resilient sectors [11] - Sectors such as software, commercial services, and banking are identified as facing the highest disruption risk [11] Non-AI Replicable Assets - The report emphasizes the rising value of assets that cannot be replicated by AI, including physical assets, regulatory barriers, and unique human experiences [4][12][14] Credit Market Insights - Despite AI disruption concerns affecting some credit markets, European investment-grade spreads remain low, presenting opportunities for investors to hedge against potential downturns [15] Computing Power Demand - There is a significant and growing demand for computing power, with projections indicating that the growth rate of demand will outpace current supply forecasts [16][21] - The intensity of computing requirements for AI queries is increasing rapidly, with predictions that companies may need to double their computing power every six months [19][21]

而这一轮动也导致全球富豪的排行发生变化。根据彭博亿万富翁指数，芯片巨头英伟达首席执行官黄仁 勋跌出全球前十大富翁排行榜，目前财富跌至1510亿美元。年初至今，他的财富已经缩水超过30亿美 元。 来源：科创日报 美国股市正在经历人工智能引发的抛售，软件股、金融科技股等板块都在过去一周内幅下跌，这也迫使 投资者前往更加避险的领域，比如必需消费品。 美国股市正在经历人工智能引发的抛售，软件股、金融科技股等板块都在过去一周内幅下跌，这也迫使 投资者前往更加避险的领域，比如必需消费品。 | Rank | Name | Total net worth | $ Last change | $ YTD change | Country / Region | Industry | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | D | | | | | | 1 | Elon Musk | $677B | +$265M | +$57.28 | United States | Technology | | 2 | Larry Page | $263B | -$2.88B | -$5 ...

2026年开年全球市场正在经历一场范式转变。 追风交易台消息，2月12日，美银证券Michael Hartnett的研究团队发表研报指出，钱正在离开过去几年的明 星资产。 年初至今，黄金涨了13.4%，石油涨了9.5%，国际股票涨了8.7%。美股跌了0.2%，比特币暴跌25%。 这背后的核心因素在于"可负担性"政治。特朗普政府正激进转向讨好"主街"（普通民众）而非"华尔街"（精 英阶层）的政策。美银强调这意味着三大关键变化： 第一，美国大盘成长股向小盘价值股的历史性轮动已经开启； 第二，AI叙事正从"AI惊叹"转向"AI致贫"，科技股面临压力； 第三，日元与日股的相关性自2005年以来首次转正，这是结构性牛市的特征。但需警惕日元升值 过快（跌破145）引发全球去杠杆。 "可负担性"政治下，"主街"资产崛起 报告指出，特朗普在中期选举压力下，政策已转向解决民生负担，这引发了一场从"华尔街"到"主街"的资产 大轮动。 赢家是"主街"通胀繁荣资产。自去年10月底以来，受益于全球制造业复苏和通胀逻辑的资产表现突出。白银 （+56%）、韩国KOSPI指数（+34%）、巴西股市（+30%）、材料（+25%）、能源（+20 ...

"AI颠覆"冲击软件、金融和物流等行业，而极端仓位和杠杆进一步放大市场波动。投资者开始调整策略增加对冲，看跌期权偏斜度处于历史高位。但高 盛Chris Hussey表示，AI颠覆论与经济韧性数据形成冲突，市场最终方向仍需时间验证。 AI本该是今年确定性最强的交易主题。但它却转变为一种威胁，不是威胁那些构建AI的科技巨头，而是冲击那些可能被AI取代的轻资产企业。 本周，标普500指数一度走向11月以来最糟糕的表现，直到周五通胀数据温和才有所反弹，而AI颠覆恐慌正在各类市场中层层扩散。 软件公司、财富管理机构、经纪商、税务顾问等白领行业，过去十年积累的利润率扩张在几周内被重新定价，冲击波甚至传导至向这些公司提供贷款的 私募信贷市场。 （本周美股公用事业板块作为规避AI冲击的安全港，表现大幅领先，而金融板块则成为当周表现最差的板块） 华尔街高度确信的押注在六周内全面失灵。年初时现金配置创历史新低、对冲降至最低水平的基金经理们，如今正目睹共识交易的溃败，那些最被看好 的资产正输给最不受待见的标的。 能源、必需消费品和美国国债领涨2026年市场，那些年初对AI的共识押注则纷纷落败。 iShares 20+年期美国国债E ...

Core Viewpoint - Soros Fund Management made significant adjustments to its investment portfolio in the fourth quarter, focusing on increasing exposure to tech giants while engaging in "buy high, sell low" strategies for energy and cryptocurrency stocks [1]. Group 1: Technology Sector Investments - The fund substantially increased its holdings in core technology stocks, including adding 161,000 shares of Microsoft (MSFT.US), 118,000 shares of Nvidia (NVDA.US), and approximately 66,000 shares of Apple [3]. - In the software and mobility sectors, the fund also increased its positions by acquiring approximately 216,000 shares of Atlassian (TEAM.US), 55,000 shares of Salesforce (CRM.US), and 119,000 shares of Uber (UBER.US) [3]. Group 2: Defensive and Growth Investments - In the defensive sector and consumer space, the fund increased its holdings in utility company Exelon (EXC.US) by approximately 488,000 shares and in gaming giant Electronic Arts (EA.US) by about 318,000 shares [3]. Group 3: Reduction in High Volatility and Financial Stocks - The fund reduced its positions in high-volatility and financial stocks, significantly cutting approximately 168,000 shares of Snowflake (SNOW.US) [4]. - It also reduced its holdings in Circle Internet Group (CRCL.US) by about 151,000 shares and in Interactive Brokers (IBKR.US) by approximately 813,000 shares, indicating a cautious stance towards the financial brokerage sector [5][6]. Group 4: New Positions and Exits - The fund opened new positions by purchasing gold-related assets such as New Gold (NGD.US) and established positions in DigitalBridge (DBRG.US), Blue Owl Capital (OWL.US), Exact Sciences (EXAS.US), and Xcel Energy (XEL.US) [7]. - It completely exited positions in KeyCorp (KEY.US), CareTrust REIT (CTRE.US), Cipher Mining (CIFR.US), and KKR & Co. (KKR.US), indicating a shift away from traditional banking and certain cryptocurrency mining stocks towards more stable or defensive sectors [7]. Group 5: Overall Strategy - The overall strategy of Soros Fund Management in the fourth quarter reflects a clear approach: embracing AI and core tech assets like Microsoft and Nvidia while avoiding high-volatility cloud and data companies like Snowflake, and hedging against macroeconomic uncertainties by investing in gold stocks. This "pick and choose" adjustment strategy highlights the pursuit of certainty and safety margins amid global economic uncertainties [7].

高盛推出一项新的软件股多空组合，做多那些业务难以被人工智能取代、或直接受益于AI需求增长的公司，同时做空可能被自动化或被企业内部替代的 软件企业。此前随着Anthropic等公司推出面向法务和税务的AI工具，引发相关软件股大幅下跌，市场对生成式AI冲击商业模式的担忧正在加剧。 随后，这轮抛售继续扩大。一家知名度不高的初创公司Altruist推出了一款税务策略工具，在过去一周内导致Charles Schwab、LPL Financial等公司股 价下跌超过10%。 媒体称，华尔街对软件股的怀疑情绪已经积累了数月，但最近的市场态度已从谨慎转向明显防御。随着市场担心生成式AI可能侵蚀传统商业模式并压缩利 润率，投资者纷纷抛售整个行业的股票。 这轮抛售也重置了估值水平。一年前，软件股的市盈率大约为51倍，是股票市场中估值最高的行业。而如今，该行业的市盈率约为27倍。 在做多一侧，高盛看好那些将直接受益于AI采用率上升的企业，包括算力提供商、数据基础设施公司、可观测性工具、安全网络公司、超大规模云服务商 以及AI开发平台等。该组合纳入的公司包括Cloudflare、CrowdStrike、Palo Alto Netwo ...

Core Argument - The book "The Technological Republic" discusses the strategic direction of the U.S. and the West for the coming decades, highlighting concerns over technological transformation and geopolitical competition [1][3]. Group 1: Critique of Current State - The author criticizes the U.S. elite's loss of direction in technology and innovation, stating that Silicon Valley has lost its way and that American technological innovation has become "hollowed out" over the past two decades [3][4]. - The book argues that the U.S. has failed to establish a clear collective identity or value system, leading to a crisis of purpose and direction among its elite [5][6]. - The author condemns the "technological neutrality" perspective, asserting that many talented individuals have moved away from critical areas that impact collective welfare and national defense [5][6]. Group 2: Structure of the Book - The book is divided into four parts: "The Software Century," "The Hollowing Out of the American Spirit," "Engineering Thinking," and "Rebuilding the Technological Republic," comprising 18 chapters [4][7]. - In "The Software Century," the author posits that the era of nuclear deterrence is ending, and a new deterrent age based on artificial intelligence is emerging, which will dominate future wars [4][7]. - The second part analyzes the cultural decline in the U.S. and the West, attributing it to internal crises of spirit and identity [5][6]. Group 3: Call for Action - The author emphasizes the need for Silicon Valley to engage with public service and national missions, arguing that technology should be a force for rebuilding collective beliefs and national direction [7][8]. - The book suggests that the U.S. must integrate "engineering thinking" into its governance to transition from the atomic age to the algorithmic age [7][8]. - The author calls for a re-establishment of national culture and values to foster collective identity and shared goals, warning against the current "innovation desert" in various sectors [7][8]. Group 4: Future Implications - The core argument throughout the book is that the software industry must rebuild its relationship with the government and redirect its resources towards developing technological and AI capabilities to address pressing national challenges [8][9]. - The author posits that the future global competition will center on institutional, technological, and national will, rather than mere market competition [9][10]. - The book provides insights into understanding the evolution of global power dynamics over the next twenty years, emphasizing that AI will reshape industry landscapes and international order [9][10].