近年来，党中央、国务院对债券市场发展高度重视，债券市场日益成为深化金融市场改革、服务实体经 济融资的重要抓手。2025年《政府工作报告》按照党的二十届三中全会的部署，强调"加快多层次债券 市场发展"，对债券市场深化融资服务功能提出了更高要求。 从政策方向看，金融五篇大文章明确了金融支持实体经济的锚定领域，也为债券市场服务实体经济指明 了方向。近年来，债券市场通过创新品种和机制优化，精准对接科技创新、绿色低碳、乡村振兴、普惠 金融等领域，进一步提升服务实体经济的效能。科技创新作为其中的核心领域，今年以来支持力度再次 加码，在全国两会经济主题记者会上，中国人民银行首次提出创设债券市场"科技板"，政策利好下科创 债等主题品种将迎来扩容窗口期。随着未来产融结合的不断深化，债券市场服务产业创新、赋能实体经 济仍大有可为，这也有望为信用评级行业服务升级带来新的机遇。 《金融时报》记者：我国信用评级行业经历了怎样的发展阶段？在助力债券市场发展中发挥了怎样的重 要作用？ 岳志岗：回顾评级行业发展历程，中国信用评级行业伴随金融市场改革发展而产生，随着债券市场跨越 式发展而逐步壮大，其经历了三个阶段。1987年至2004年为起步 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential economic repercussions of Trump's tariff policies, drawing parallels to Nixon's abandonment of the gold standard in 1971, suggesting that these actions could lead to significant instability in the dollar and the global trade order [1][2]. Group 1: Historical Context - The long-term effects of current tariff policies could mirror the impact of Nixon's decision to abandon the gold standard, which ended the post-war financial framework established with WWII allies [2]. - Nixon's measures, including a 10% import tariff and price controls, failed to achieve their intended goals and instead led to a loss of business confidence and stagflation, contributing to severe inflation in the 1970s [2][10]. Group 2: Market Reactions - As the dollar index has dropped from a high of 110.18 to 100.10, a decline of over 9%, investors are reassessing their strategies, leading to a shift towards gold and physical assets for preservation of value [4]. - There is a noticeable trend of investors moving away from U.S. assets, with a reevaluation of the dollar's status as a reserve currency, indicating a rapid process of de-dollarization [8]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The short-term political tool of tariffs may lead to long-term economic pain, as seen in Nixon's case where the economic shockwaves lasted for decades [10]. - The current financial landscape may react more swiftly to policy changes than in 1971, with the bond market potentially exerting pressure on politicians to alter their strategies more rapidly [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential economic repercussions of Trump's tariff policies, drawing parallels to Nixon's 1971 economic decisions, which may lead to a significant challenge for the dollar and a shift in global trade dynamics [1][4][9]. Group 1: Historical Context - Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Summers criticized the notion that tariffs have positive effects, labeling it as "fraudulent rhetoric" [1]. - Nixon's abandonment of the gold standard and the implementation of a 10% import tariff are highlighted as pivotal moments that reshaped the global financial order [1][2]. - The "Nixon Shock" is noted for failing to achieve its intended goals, resulting in lost business confidence and contributing to stagflation in the 1970s [1][4]. Group 2: Current Market Reactions - Investors are increasingly reallocating assets towards gold and physical assets for preservation of value, as the dollar index has dropped from a peak of 110.18 to 100.10, a decline of 9.1% [3][4]. - There is a noticeable shift of corporate and consumer activities from banks to the bond market, indicating a decline in bank loans as a share of total borrowing [7]. - The current market is experiencing a reassessment of the dollar's status as a reserve currency, with signs of rapid de-dollarization [8]. Group 3: Economic Implications of Tariffs - Tariffs are viewed as a short-term political tool that may lead to long-term economic pain, with Nixon's tariffs providing temporary benefits but resulting in prolonged economic shocks [9]. - The article suggests that the current financial environment may react more swiftly to political pressures compared to the 1970s, with potential for rapid market responses to policy changes [10].

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that the yields on 10-year and 30-year government bonds in China's interbank bond market have decreased by approximately 2 basis points at the beginning of the trading session [1]

过去两个月，10年期美债收益率已暴跌半个百分点，其他期限的美债收益率也出现类似幅度的下降。虽 然这一急剧变化主要归因于特朗普的关税威胁引发的经济衰退担忧，而不是贝森特所希望的由财政纪律 和可持续经济增长带来的债券上涨。 市场正在逐渐形成共识：这届政府将以某种方式降低收益率。 债市上已经出现了所谓的"贝森特看跌期 权"概念。 "政府几乎已经给10年期收益率设置了上限，"法国兴业银行的美国利率策略主管Subadra Rajappa表 示，她将10年期国债的年末预测下调了四分之三个百分点至3.75%。"如果他们看到收益率开始高于 4.5%，我认为他们会开始言辞干预并确保重申他们专注于债务、赤字和削减支出。" 贝森特近期在演讲、采访中反复强调推低并维持低10年期美债收益率的决心，一反政府官员通常的模糊 表态。BNP Paribas SA美国利率策略主管Guneet Dhingra表示, "债券市场过去常说'别对抗美联储'，现 在这种说法正在演变为'别对抗财政部'。 ⭐星标华尔街见闻，好内容不错过 ⭐ 华尔街的一些机构已经调整了他们对2025年的预测。据彭博，过去几周，巴克莱银行、加拿大皇家银行 和法国兴业银行的首席利 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook for the hotel industry, particularly for Junting Hotel, with a focus on differentiated product offerings and management strategies [4][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Junting Hotel is leveraging a "one store, one product" strategy to create a premium model, aiming for non-linear growth through various expansion methods including management contracts and franchising [4]. - The anticipated growth in the number of direct-operated and managed hotels is expected to drive revenue and profitability, with projections for revenue growth rates of 17.42%, 26.05%, and 30.42% from 2024 to 2026 [5]. - The insurance sector, particularly China Life Insurance, is noted for its strong performance, with expected revenue growth rates of 14%, 6%, and 8% from 2024 to 2026, driven by premium growth and cost optimization [6]. - Qingdao Bank is positioned for growth due to its focus on debt resolution and risk assessment improvements, with projected net profit growth from 2024 to 2026 [8]. Summary by Sections Junting Hotel - The company is expected to achieve a RevPAR decline of approximately 5% in 2024, followed by a recovery in subsequent years due to new brand launches and improved occupancy rates [5]. - Revenue projections for Junting Hotel are set at 627 million, 790 million, and 1,031 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profit forecasts of 29 million, 65 million, and 144 million yuan [5]. China Life Insurance - The company is projected to have revenues of 630,610 million, 666,554 million, and 723,096 million yuan from 2024 to 2026, with net profits expected to be 42,874 million, 43,833 million, and 52,140 million yuan [6]. Qingdao Bank - The bank's net profit is forecasted to reach 4,264 million, 4,707 million, and 5,241 million yuan from 2024 to 2026, supported by improved credit growth and risk management [8]. Traditional Chinese Medicine - The report anticipates a performance turning point for the traditional Chinese medicine sector in Q2 2025, with strong brands expected to outperform due to limited impact from centralized procurement [9]. Industrial Metals - The report indicates a bullish outlook for copper prices, driven by macroeconomic policies and strong fundamentals, with expectations for price increases in Q2 [10].

中新社北京3月14日电 (记者 夏宾)中国银行间市场交易商协会14日发布的《银行间债券市场进一步支持 民营企业高质量发展行动方案》(下称"行动方案")表示，多措并举支持民营企业发行科技创新债券。创 新风险分担机制，支持民营科技型企业和股权投资机构发行科技创新债券，提升金融适配性及融资便利 性。 行动方案还提到，加大民营企业债券承销投资引导力度。定期公布金融机构参与民营企业债券承销、投 资情况，纳入主承销商执业情况市场评价，鼓励其加大民营企业债券服务力度。 同时，加大首次注册民营企业支持力度。鼓励主承销商开展首次注册民营企业培育拓展行动，持续挖掘 有市场、有效益、信用好、有融资需求的优质民营企业进入债券市场。通过定期推送、路演宣介推动首 次注册民营企业纳入金融机构投资"白名单"等。(完) 同时，加大首次注册民营企业支持力度。鼓励主承销商开展首次注册民营企业培育拓展行动，持续挖掘 有市场、有效益、信用好、有融资需求的优质民营企业进入债券市场。通过定期推送、路演宣介推动首 次注册民营企业纳入金融机构投资"白名单"等。(完) 中新社北京3月14日电 (记者 夏宾)中国银行间市场交易商协会14日发布的《银行间债券市场进 ...

重磅！ 3月6日（星期四）下午，十四届全国人大三次会议举行记者会，邀请国家发展和改革委员会主任郑栅洁、 财政部部长蓝佛安、商务部部长王文涛、中国人民银行行长潘功胜、中国证券监督管理委员会主席吴清， 就发展改革、财政预算、商务、金融证券等相关问题回答中外记者提问。 潘功胜表示，科技创新活动复杂多元，处于不同生命周期的企业的风险特征和金融需求有很大差异，金融 供给的适配性要进一步提升。中国人民银行将会同证监会、科技部等部门创新推出债券市场的科技板，支 持金融机构、科技型企业、私募股权投资机构等三类主体，发行科技创新债券，丰富科技创新债券的产品 体系。 一是支持商业银行、证券公司、金融资产投资公司等金融机构，发行科技创新债券，拓宽科技贷款、债券 投资、股权投资的资金来源。二是支持成长期、成熟期的科技型企业，发行中长期债券，用于加大科技创 新领域的研发投入、项目建设和并购重组等。三是支持科技投资经验丰富的头部私募股权投资机构、创业 投资机构等发行长期限的科技创新债券，带动更多的资金投早投小、投长期、投科技。 校对： 王蔚 版权声明 证券时报各平台所有原创内容，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载。我社保留追 究相关 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing mixed conditions, with interest rate bonds and credit bonds showing positive trends, while convertible bonds are facing challenges. The overall market reflects a complex interplay of funding pressures, policy observations, and stock-bond rebalancing [1][2][3][4]. Group 1: Interest Rate Bonds - The interest rate bond market is influenced by funding conditions, economic data, and policy news, showing significant fluctuations today with a trend of initial decline followed by recovery [1]. - Most participants in the interest rate bond market are likely to benefit from today's performance [1]. Group 2: Credit Bonds - The credit bond market is experiencing increased differentiation, with short-term bonds under pressure and significant selling pressure on medium to long-term bonds [2]. - Some participants in the credit bond market are also expected to benefit from today's outcomes [2]. Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The interbank certificate of deposit market continues to show a trend of rising volume and price under tight funding conditions, indicating a positive outlook for participants [2]. Group 4: Convertible Bonds - The convertible bond market is undergoing a volume contraction and shows significant differentiation, with overall performance being weak and a noticeable decline in market trading activity [3]. Group 5: Market Overview - Today's bond market showed a pattern of initial decline followed by a collective rise in the afternoon, reflecting multiple pressures including tight funding, policy caution, and stock-bond rebalancing, while the long-term investment value is gradually becoming apparent [4]. Group 6: Short-term and Mid-term Outlook - The short-term strategy should focus on defensive measures, while the mid-term should consider policy windows and opportunities for recovery from oversold conditions, while remaining cautious of external risks impacting the market [5].

2017 年，一位知名的有色金属分析师来公司路演，谈到一个词是"享受泡沫"，让我深有感触。他提到，很多人常常在市场疯狂的时候觉得差不多了，就 不敢参与了，但往往市场会超出你的想像而继续上涨。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20241211— 葵花宝典 之 债市篇（-监管出手干预理财自建估值+路透称当局考虑明年人民币贬值-资金面均衡偏紧=小下)】 资金面均衡偏紧，长债收益率小幅下行。 央行今日公开市场开展786亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率为1.50%。今日413亿元逆回购到期。净投放373亿元。 上午资金面较昨日有所改善，尾盘再度收敛，DR001加权利率小涨至1.53%上方。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2024. 12. 11) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 | 成交更占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | (亿元) | 比 (%) | | R00 ...