Group 1: US Economic Overview - The US economy continues to expand, with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNOW model predicting a Q3 growth rate of 3.1%, driven by stable consumer momentum and strong investment in technology [2] - Jobless claims have increased, with initial claims rising by 27,000 to 263,000, the highest in four years, indicating a cooling labor market [2] - Inflation remains manageable, with August PPI unexpectedly dropping to 2.6%, significantly below the expected 3.3%, while CPI slightly increased to 2.9% [2] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Market Reactions - The US is expected to restart monetary easing, with market participants fully pricing in three rate cuts this year, leading to a decline in private sector financing costs [3] - The 30-year mortgage rate fell by 15 basis points to 6.25%, and the 10-year AAA corporate bond yield decreased by 8 basis points to 4.26% [3] - US stock markets rose, influenced by the Fed's dovish outlook, although valuations are considered high, with future gains expected to come from corporate earnings growth rather than valuation expansion [3] Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - Short-term interest rates are expected to decline as the easing cycle begins, but the long-term rates may remain volatile due to economic resilience and inflationary pressures [4] - The 10-year US Treasury yield is projected to average 4.3% this year and 4.2% next year, with a fluctuation range of 3.5% to 5% [4] Group 4: Currency and Commodity Outlook - The US dollar is anticipated to remain in a range-bound trading pattern, with a fluctuation range of 95 to 103, due to the dual support of easing monetary policy and fiscal expansion [5] - The Chinese yuan is expected to maintain a strong stance in the short term, although potential fluctuations may arise from changes in the A-share market and US rate cut expectations [5] - Gold is viewed positively, benefiting from the Fed's easing cycle and ongoing global central bank purchases [5] Group 5: China Economic Insights - China's economy is showing signs of slowdown, with external demand weakening and internal demand potentially continuing to decline [7] - August macro data indicates a drop in export and import growth rates, with exports to the US declining by 33.1% [7] - The government is implementing policies to stabilize growth in key industries, including the automotive sector, with a target of approximately 3% growth in overall vehicle sales by 2025 [9] Group 6: Market Strategy and Recommendations - The current market sentiment favors equities over bonds, with a recommendation to hold short to medium-duration bonds while being cautious with long-duration investments [12] - The A-share market has shown resilience, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.52%, supported by liquidity and favorable policies [13] - Investment strategies suggest maintaining dividend stocks as a stable base, while allocating to growth sectors like technology and healthcare for potential gains [14]

Core Viewpoint - The independence of the Federal Reserve is facing unprecedented challenges due to President Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook, which has raised concerns about political interference in monetary policy [1][10][14]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Response - The Federal Reserve stated that the long-term fixed terms of its governors and the protection against dismissal are crucial for ensuring that monetary policy decisions are based on data and the long-term interests of the American people [3][4]. - The Fed will comply with any court rulings regarding Cook's dismissal [4]. Group 2: Political Implications - Trump's actions are seen as part of a systematic intervention in the Federal Reserve, with previous appointments of loyalists and public criticisms of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's policies [6][7]. - Historically, no Fed governor has been dismissed by a president, and Trump's ability to remove Cook remains uncertain due to legal restrictions requiring substantial evidence of misconduct [8][9]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following Trump's threats, the U.S. dollar index, U.S. Treasury yields, and S&P 500 futures experienced limited declines [10]. - Analysts suggest that if the Fed's decision-making is increasingly influenced by Trump's policies, it could lead to accelerated rate cuts, benefiting equities and global risk assets while causing fluctuations in commodity prices [10]. Group 4: Future Considerations - If Trump successfully removes Cook, he would gain a majority on the Fed's Board, potentially undermining the Fed's independence and affecting its ability to control inflation [14][15]. - The political cycle may increasingly influence the Fed's policy objectives, shifting from a dual mandate of price stability and employment growth to potentially incorporating political considerations [15].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is expected to experience fluctuations in 2022, with cautious optimism regarding investment opportunities as macroeconomic conditions evolve [1][3]. Macroeconomic Outlook - The macroeconomic environment is anticipated to show a gradual upward trend throughout the year, supported by ongoing monetary policy measures [1]. - Key challenges include pressure on exports and domestic demand, with real estate sector contraction being a central issue [1]. - Inflation is expected to see a decline in PPI while CPI may rise, indicating mixed inflationary pressures [1]. Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market in 2021 exhibited a rare low-volatility trend, performing relatively well [4]. - There is a cautious outlook for 2022, with expectations of a range-bound market rather than a continuation of the previous year's "bull market" [3][5]. - The bond market may face short-term pressures due to policy adjustments and credit data fluctuations, but medium-term risks are considered manageable [5]. Investment Strategies - Investment strategies should focus on maintaining flexibility and liquidity in bond portfolios, with an emphasis on credit quality and duration management [6]. - The approach should prioritize space over time, with a focus on selective trading and appropriate leverage [6]. - For the money market, a neutral strategy is recommended, with an emphasis on timing and adjusting duration to balance yield and risk [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Liquidity abundance drives a dual - bull market in stocks and bonds, but export data interferes with the bond market. The 7 - day OMO of the central bank was in a net - withdrawal state last week, yet the capital market remained loose. The short - term asset yields declined due to loose funds, and the mid - and long - term yields also had downward support after the weak bond market sentiment recovered. However, the July export data and the establishment of the Xinzang Railway Company triggered the stock - bond "seesaw" effect, restricting the downward space of ultra - long - term interest rates [2][87]. - The pricing focus of taxation is more inclined to new bonds, and the curve valuation may face upward pressure. The ChinaBond Valuation Center will gradually transition the yield curve and prioritize using new bonds to compile it. The winning bid rate of new local bonds on August 8 was higher than the valuation of the same - term old bonds, indicating that the pricing focus has shifted to new bonds. Potential tax policy changes may also push up the valuation center [2][88]. - Ample funds are beneficial for short - term interest rates to maintain good performance, and the curve shape may continue to steepen. The previous negative sentiment in the bond market has weakened, and the bond market pricing may become more neutral. Short - term interest rates are expected to perform well, while the downward space of long - term interest rates may be restricted. The strategy of "shortening portfolio duration + preferentially allocating old bonds" is recommended, and steepening the interest rate curve is also a cost - effective option [2][89]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Matters - On August 8, the central bank conducted a 7000 - billion - yuan 3 - month (91 - day) fixed - quantity, interest - rate - tender, multiple - price - winning bid buy - back operation. After this operation, the buy - back was still in a net - withdrawal state as the August maturity scale was 9000 billion yuan [5]. - China's export in July 2025 reached 321.784 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%, the highest growth rate since April. Exports to the EU and ASEAN increased by 9.2% and 16.6% respectively, while exports to the US decreased by 21.7% year - on - year [7]. - The State Council issued an opinion on gradually implementing free pre - school education, covering all kindergarten senior - class children and eligible private kindergarten children [9]. - On August 8, 2025, the Xinzang Railway Co., Ltd. was established with a registered capital of 950 billion yuan, marking the start of the substantial construction of the Xinzang Railway project [12]. - On August 7, the ChinaBond Valuation Center announced that it would gradually transition the yield curve and prioritize using new bonds to compile it [13]. 3.2 Money Market - **Open Market Operations and Capital Interest Rate Trends**: From August 4 to 8, 2025, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase operation had a net withdrawal of 536.5 billion yuan. The policy interest rate for the 7 - day open - market reverse repurchase was 1.40%. As of August 8, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 were 1.341%, 1.454%, 1.312%, and 1.425% respectively, with changes compared to August 1 [15][20]. - **Certificate of Deposit Interest Rate Trends and Repurchase Transaction Volume**: Commercial bank certificates of deposit had a net financing of 177.31 billion yuan last week, with city commercial banks having the largest issuance scale. The 1 - year issuance rate of national and share - holding banks dropped to around 1.63%. In the secondary market, the yields of certificates of deposit declined, and the 1Y - 3M term spread widened [24][29]. 3.3 Bond Market - **Primary Market**: From January to August, the net financing rhythm of local government bonds was faster than that of national bonds. As of August 8, the cumulative net financing of national bonds and local bonds in 2025 was about 4.37 trillion yuan and 5.27 trillion yuan respectively. The actual issuance of local government bonds in July was lower than expected, which may lead to an increase in the actual supply in August - September. Last week, the issuance and net financing of national bonds increased significantly, while the issuance of local bonds slowed down. The issuance scale of special refinancing bonds has reached 1.84 trillion yuan as of August 8 [34][41][42]. - **Secondary Market**: Last week, the market showed a bull - steepening trend. The short - and medium - term interest rates declined due to loose funds, while the ultra - long - term interest rates increased due to export data and strong risk assets. The trading volume and turnover rate of 10 - year national bond and national development bond active bonds decreased. The term spread and the spread between national and local bonds showed different trends [46][50][59]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior Tracking - The leveraged trading volume recovered last week due to loose funds. The 20 - day moving average of the daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was 7.42 trillion yuan, a decrease of about 0.21 trillion yuan from the previous week [67]. - In the cash bond market, state - owned banks mainly bought national bonds with a maturity of less than 5 years, rural commercial banks mainly increased their holdings of national bonds with a maturity of more than 10 years, and securities firms and funds had a stronger buying force for national bonds with a maturity of less than 10 years [70]. - The current加仓 cost of major trading desks for 10 - year national bonds is between 1.69% - 1.70% [74]. 3.5 High - Frequency Data Tracking - Last week, the settlement prices of rebar, cathode copper, and Brent and WTI crude oil futures decreased compared to the previous week, while the BDI index increased. The CCFI index decreased, and the prices of pork and glass also declined, while the price of vegetables increased. The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.14 [84]. 3.6 Market Outlook - The bond market may continue to show a steepening trend. The strategy of "shortening portfolio duration + preferentially allocating old bonds" is recommended, and steepening the interest rate curve is also a cost - effective option. Specific trading varieties can consider 250011 and 2500002 [89].

Core Viewpoint - The White House National Economic Council Director Hassett stated that the Federal Reserve's actions are "very, very slow" and emphasized the need for the Fed to return to the "curve where interest rates should be" [1] Group 1 - U.S. inflation data has been consistently good [1] - The Federal Reserve is urged to adjust its approach to interest rates [1]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the fixed income market and the broader financial environment in 2025, focusing on monetary policy, liquidity conditions, and credit supply dynamics [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Monetary Policy Shift**: In Q2 2025, the central bank's monetary policy significantly shifted to align with fiscal policy, leading to a notable decrease in the funding center [1][2]. 2. **Liquidity Pressure**: The upcoming tax period in mid to late July is expected to create liquidity pressure, although the probability of credit growth deviating from macroeconomic trends in Q3 is low [1][4]. 3. **Government Bonds Supply**: The total supply of local government special bonds and national bonds is projected to be between 1.1 to 1.2 trillion yuan, increasing to 1.4 to 1.5 trillion yuan in August and September [1][5]. 4. **Insurance Fund Dynamics**: Due to a slowdown in life insurance premium growth, the demand for pure debt instruments is expected to decrease in the second half of the year [1][6]. 5. **Interest Rate Expectations**: The current interest rate curve is anticipated to shift, with expectations for a rate cut forming after September [1][7]. 6. **Credit Asset Outlook**: New funds are expected to support credit assets in the second half of the year, but low credit spreads may lead to redemptions [3][13]. 7. **Bank Wealth Management Products**: In the first half of 2025, bank wealth management products were primarily allocated to short-term deposits, with a lack of incremental funds [10]. 8. **Market Sentiment**: The overall market sentiment remains optimistic for Q3, despite challenges such as potential redemptions and spread adjustments [14]. Additional Important Insights - **Structural Opportunities**: There is a need to focus on structural opportunities and differences among asset types, particularly in the context of limited credit supply [1][8][6]. - **Trading Activity in Rural Commercial Banks**: Trading activity in rural commercial banks has decreased, with investors focusing more on strategic choices rather than frequent trading due to low interest rates and high volatility [9]. - **Public Fund Performance**: Public funds and other products showed significant performance in May and June 2025, with particular attention on the Sci-Tech Innovation ETF [11][12]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call records, highlighting the current state and expectations of the fixed income market and related financial dynamics in 2025.

Group 1: Market Trends - In June, bond market yields declined amid a shift from negative to positive sentiment, with significant downward movement in yields for government bonds with maturities of 3 years and below, indicating renewed upward potential for the bond market[1] - The bond market is expected to experience seasonal liquidity easing in July, with historical data showing that July often represents a low point for funding rates throughout the year[2] - The net issuance of government bonds in July is projected to be between 1.46 trillion and 1.60 trillion yuan, maintaining a relatively high level and potentially impacting market liquidity[2] Group 2: Institutional Behavior - Institutional investors, particularly in the insurance sector, may provide significant support to the bond market in July, with expectations of a potential reduction in the preset interest rate below 2.25%, which could lead to increased premium income[3] - Bank wealth management products are anticipated to see an increase in scale, potentially reaching a growth of over 1 trillion yuan in July, driven by favorable market conditions[3] - Despite rising funding costs at the end of June, the banking system's funding supply increased, indicating a potential for additional liquidity to flow into the bond market[3] Group 3: Economic Fundamentals - The economic growth outlook remains mixed, with GDP growth expected to exceed 5.0% in Q2, but consumer demand remains weak, as evidenced by a record low of 572.3 billion yuan in new household loans from January to May 2025[4] - Export activity showed signs of marginal recovery, with container throughput reaching 6.72 million units in June, reflecting a year-on-year increase of approximately 5.3%[4] - Retail sales growth is relatively strong, with automobile sales increasing by 24% year-on-year in June, although overall consumer demand is still lagging[4] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - Expectations for interest rate cuts have weakened, with the central bank's recent statements dampening market anticipation for further monetary easing[6] - The bond market may face volatility due to fluctuations in the stock market and uncertainties surrounding tariff policies, particularly with the upcoming deadline for tariff exemptions on July 9[6] - The potential for a significant increase in government bond supply in July could create pressure on the bond market, although central bank interventions may mitigate this risk[6]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, represented by Schmied, expresses hope that it is gradually approaching a more stable and normalized interest rate curve [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve aims for a more range-bound and normalized interest rate environment [1]

Report Information - Report Title: "Curve: Can It Flatten After Steepening? — Interest Rate Weekly (Week 2 of May)" [1] - Report Date: May 12, 2025 [2] - Chief Analyst: Yan Ziqi [2] - Research Assistant: Hong Ziyan [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The current short - end downward movement depends more on the central bank's stance and operations, as well as the decline of funding rates and certificate of deposit rates. If the marginal indicators improve, the short - end downward space may open up [6] - The long - end is likely to oscillate in the short term, and a downward trend requires catalytic factors. The current bond market is favorable, but more catalysts are needed for interest rates to decline. It is advisable to maintain duration and wait for opportunities, and appropriate leverage can be added under the background of falling funding rates [8][9] Summary by Related Catalogs Short - end Interest Rate Analysis - After the double - cut policy was announced last week, the interest rate curve steepened, with the short - end down nearly 5bp and the long - end flat. The central bank's funding rate DR007 dropped significantly to 1.54% on May 9 [2] - Historically, after the reserve requirement ratio cuts were implemented since 2021, the short - end interest rates declined, oscillated, and increased 3, 2, and 3 times respectively. The necessity of short - end decline after reserve requirement ratio cuts may not be high [2] - Currently, non - bank institutions are buying short - term bonds, but large - bank - dominated allocation disks have not entered the market. Banks have been net sellers in recent weeks. However, large banks' funds lending has increased recently, and if the inter - bank certificate of deposit rate further approaches the policy rate, the short - end downward space may open up [4] - The key factor for the short - end to decline further lies in the central bank's stance and operations, as well as the decline of funding rates and certificate of deposit rates [6] Long - end Interest Rate Analysis - This year, the long - term bond has a high probability of short - term oscillation and needs catalytic factors to decline due to factors such as the weakening of broad - money expectations, repeated tariffs, and narrow term spreads [8] - The central bank's Q1 2025 monetary policy implementation report has relatively neutral impacts on the bond market. Although it mentions secondary trading of treasury bonds, new expressions are put forward to prevent interest rate risks [8] - The April inflation data is in line with expectations. The core CPI maintains a 0.5% positive growth. The real interest rate is close to the historical lower quartile, but the further downward space is limited [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The inflation data in April reflects weak domestic demand. The CPI's year - on - year decline stabilized while the month - on - month showed an increase, and the PPI's decline widened, indicating overall weak inflation. [5][23] - In April, affected by international and domestic seasonal factors, industrial product prices weakened significantly. The Sino - US trade negotiation had no significant progress, and trade uncertainties remained. [5][23] - On May 7th, a package of monetary policy measures including reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts were introduced to stabilize domestic demand and address economic uncertainties. Observe the implementation effects of these policies. [5][23] - The interest rate curve is expected to shift downward as a whole, and long - term bond yields may hit new lows. With the increase in fundamental pressure and loose funds in May, the overall interest rate curve is likely to move down, and long - term bond yields may reach new lows. [5][23][26] 3. Summary by Related Content CPI and Core CPI - In April, the CPI year - on - year decreased by 0.1%, the same as last month, with three consecutive months of negative growth. The month - on - month increased by 0.1%, up 0.5 percentage points from last month. The core CPI year - on - year increased by 0.5%, unchanged from last month, and the month - on - month increased by 0.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from last month. [1][8] - The year - on - year stability of CPI and core CPI may be partly supported by the rise in gold prices. The "Other Goods and Services" sub - item in CPI increased significantly, with a year - on - year increase of 6.6% and a month - on - month increase of 2.4% in April. After excluding this sub - item, the April CPI year - on - year was - 0.3%, indicating weak overall inflation. [2][11] Food CPI - In April, the food CPI's year - on - year decline narrowed, and the month - on - month changed from a decrease to an increase, with a significantly reduced drag. The fresh fruit price was the main driving factor. The food CPI year - on - year fell by 0.2%, with the decline narrowing by 1.2 percentage points from last month; the month - on - month increased by 0.2%, up 1.6 percentage points from last month. [2][13] - Due to the fishing moratorium in some areas, the price of aquatic products increased by 1.2% month - on - month. The supply of new fruits decreased seasonally, and the fresh fruit price increased by 2.2% month - on - month. Affected by the decrease in imports, the beef price increased by 3.9%. The prices of fresh vegetables and pork decreased by 1.8% and 1.6% respectively, with the declines less than the seasonal average. [2][13][14] Non - food CPI - In April, the non - food CPI's year - on - year changed from an increase to a flat state, and the month - on - month turned positive. The transportation and communication CPI was the main drag due to the decline in international oil prices. The non - food price year - on - year was flat, with the growth rate down 0.2 percentage points from last month; the month - on - month changed from a 0.2% decrease last month to a 0.1% increase. [3][16] - Affected by the significant decline in international oil prices, the gasoline price decreased by 10.4%, dragging down the CPI year - on - year by about 0.38 percentage points. The core CPI excluding food and energy prices increased by 0.5% year - on - year, with a relatively stable increase. [3][16] PPI - Affected by international commodity prices and seasonal factors, the year - on - year and month - on - month declines of the production materials PPI both widened in April. The production materials PPI year - on - year decreased by 3.1%, with the decline widening by 0.3 percentage points from last month, and the month - on - month decreased by 0.5%, with the decline widening by 0.1 percentage point. [4][18] - The decline in international crude oil prices led to a month - on - month decline in domestic oil - related industries. The price of the oil and gas extraction industry decreased by 14.2% year - on - year. With the end of heating in the north, the coal demand entered the off - season, and the prices of coal mining and washing and petroleum - coal processing decreased by 15.2% and 11.1% year - on - year respectively. [4][18] - In April, the year - on - year decline of the living materials PPI widened, with a 1.6% decrease, and the decline widened by 0.1 percentage point from last month. The food price decreased by 1.4% year - on - year, the same as last month. The price of general daily necessities rebounded, with a 0.6% year - on - year increase, and the growth rate decreased by 0.1 percentage point. The durable consumer goods decreased by 3.7% year - on - year, still in the negative growth range, and the decline further widened by 0.3 percentage points. [4][20]